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Appendix 2. Guide for Running AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation Tools with R in Windows, Version 2.3

This Guide explains how to create climate series and climate change scenarios by using the AgMip Climate team's methodology as outlined in the AgMIP Guide for Regional Assessment: Handbook of Methods and Procedures. It details how to: install R and the required packages to run the AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation scripts, and create climate scenarios from CMIP5 GCMs using a 30-year baseline daily weather dataset. The Guide also outlines a workflow that can be modified for application to your own climate data.

handbooks↗

The Trick Simulation Toolkit: A NASA/Opensource Framework for Running Time Based Physics Models

The Trick Simulation Toolkit is a simulation development environment used to create high fidelity training and engineering simulations at the NASA Johnson Space Center and many other NASA facilities. Its purpose is to generate a simulation executable from a collection of user-supplied models and a simulation definition file. For each Trick-based simulation, Trick automatically provides job scheduling, numerical integration, the ability to write and restore human readable checkpoints, data recording, interactive variable manipulation, a run-time interpreter, and many other commonly needed capabilities. This allows simulation developers to concentrate on their domain expertise and the algorithms and equations of their models. Also included in Trick are tools for plotting recorded data and various other supporting utilities and libraries. Trick is written in C/C++ and Java and supports both Linux and MacOSX computer operating systems. This paper describes Trick's design and use at NASA Johnson Space Center.

Penn, John M.↗

Low-Noise Free-Running High-Rate Photon-Counting for Space Communication and Ranging

We present performance data for low-noise free-running high-rate photon counting method for space optical communication and ranging. NASA GSFC is testing the performance of two types of novel photon-counting detectors 1) a 2x8 mercury cadmium telluride (HgCdTe) avalanche array made by DRS Inc., and a 2) a commercial 2880-element silicon avalanche photodiode (APD) array. We successfully measured real-time communication performance using both the 2 detected-photon threshold and logic AND-gate coincidence methods. Use of these methods allows mitigation of dark count, after-pulsing and background noise effects without using other method of Time Gating The HgCdTe APD array routinely demonstrated very high photon detection efficiencies ((is) greater than 50%) at near infrared wavelength. The commercial silicon APD array exhibited a fast output with rise times of 300 ps and pulse widths of 600 ps. On-chip individually filtered signals from the entire array were multiplexed onto a single fast output. NASA GSFC has tested both detectors for their potential application for space communications and ranging. We developed and compare their performances using both the 2 detected photon threshold and coincidence methods.

Photons↗

Low-Noise Free-Running High-Rate Photon-Counting for Space Communication and Ranging

We present performance data for low-noise free-running high-rate photon counting method for space optical communication and ranging. NASA GSFC is testing the performance of two types of novel photon-counting detectors 1) a 2x8 mercury cadmium telluride (HgCdTe) avalanche array made by DRS Inc., and a 2) a commercial 2880-element silicon avalanche photodiode (APD) array. We successfully measured real-time communication performance using both the 2 detected-photon threshold and logic AND-gate coincidence methods. Use of these methods allows mitigation of dark count, after-pulsing and background noise effects without using other method of Time Gating The HgCdTe APD array routinely demonstrated very high photon detection efficiencies (50) at near infrared wavelength. The commercial silicon APD array exhibited a fast output with rise times of 300 ps and pulse widths of 600 ps. On-chip individually filtered signals from the entire array were multiplexed onto a single fast output. NASA GSFC has tested both detectors for their potential application for space communications and ranging. We developed and compare their performances using both the 2 detected photon threshold and coincidence methods.

Photons↗

Certification Strategies using Run-Time Safety Assurance for Part 23 Autopilot Systems

Part 23 aircraft operation, and in particular general aviation, is relatively unsafe when compared to other common forms of vehicle travel. Currently, there exists technologies that could increase safety statistics for these aircraft; however, the high burden and cost of performing the requisite safety critical certification processes for these systems limits their proliferation. For this reason, many entities, including the Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, and the US Air Force, are considering new options for certification for technologies that will improve aircraft safety. Of particular interest, are low cost autopilot systems for general aviation aircraft, as these systems have the potential to positively and significantly affect safety statistics. This paper proposes new systems and techniques, leveraging run-time verification, for the assurance of general aviation autopilot systems, which would be used to supplement the current certification process and provide a viable path for near-term low-cost implementation. In addition, discussions on preliminary experimentation and building the assurance case for a system, based on these principles, is provided.

automatic collision avoidance↗

A Fermi Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor Search for Electromagnetic Signals Coincident with Gravitational-Wave Candidates in Advanced LIGOs First Observing Run

We present a search for prompt gamma-ray counterparts to compact binary coalescence gravitational wave (GW)candidates from Advanced LIGO's first observing run (O1). As demonstrated by the multimessenger observations ofGW170817/GRB 170817A, electromagnetic and GW observations provide complementary information about theastrophysical source, and in the case of weaker candidates, may strengthen the case for an astrophysical origin. Here weinvestigate low-significance GWcandidates from the O1 compact binary coalescence searches using the Fermi Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor (GBM), leveraging its all sky and broad energy coverage. Candidates are ranked and compared tobackground to measure the significance. Those with false alarm rates (FARs) of less than 105 Hz (about one per day,yielding a total of 81 candidates) are used as the search sample for gamma-ray follow-up. No GW candidates werefound to be coincident with gamma-ray transients independently identified by blind searches of the GBM data. Inaddition, GW candidate event times were followed up by a separate targeted search of GBM data. Among the resultingGBM events, the two with the lowest FARs were the gamma-ray transient GW150914-GBM presented in Connaughtonet al. and a solar flare in chance coincidence with a GW candidate.

Burns, E.↗

Run Time Assurance as an Alternate Concept to Contemporary Development Assurance Processes

NASA and the FAA sought industry research to identify and evaluate alternate concepts for assuring safety of airborne systems. This report documents a research effort focused on the evaluation of Run Time Assurance (RTA) as applied to a novel, airborne system architecture. The RTA pattern is applied to a case study focused on a notional integrated flight and propulsion control system for a DEP VTOL aircraft. During flight, while the high-automation algorithms are operating, the RTA system will monitor the aircraft state for any impending violation of safety requirements. When necessary, it will switch to the low-automation software to prevent such violations. Assurance practices for both baseline industry activities and the RTA approach were captured and compared to illustrate the required engineering design considerations, and possible advantages and disadvantages of each approach as part of this case study.

Eric M. Peterson↗

NASA Space Launch System Completes Green Run Testing, Begins Assembly

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) Program is poised in 2021 to shift its focus to the launch site with the completion of its last major integrated hardware and software test. SLS is NASA’s evolvable super heavy-lift launch vehicle for deep space exploration. Using proven propulsion technologies, SLS will be the most powerful launch vehicle in the world. That capability translates not only into more mass and volume to destinations but also simplified payload design and mission operations and greater opportunity for mission success. These capabilities will be important for the Artemis program, NASA’s plan to return humans to the Moon to stay in a sustainable way in order to develop and test technologies and operations needed for human missions to Mars and other destinations. SLS will anchor the transportation leg of an innovative, sustainable program of lunar exploration with commercial and international partners as the first step of human exploration of deep space. While all major hardware and software efforts made significant progress in 2020 and 2021, the most visible was the Green Run test series of the Artemis I core stage conducted at NASA’s Stennis Space Center (SSC) on the B-2 test stand. The series validated core stage design, performance, workmanship, and readiness for shipment to NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for final processing, integration and launch. The core stage provides the backbone for SLS’ main propulsion system, consisting of two five-segment solid rocket boosters and four RS-25 liquid hydrogen (LH2)/liquid oxygen (LOX) engines. SLS also includes an Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS) that will insert the Orion crew spacecraft into a lunar trajectory.

John Honeycutt↗

Low-Latency Gravitational-Wave Alerts for Multimessenger Astronomy During the Second Advanced LIGO and Virgo Observing Run

Advanced LIGO’s second observing run (O2), conducted from 2016 November 30 to 2017 August 25, combined with Advanced Virgo’s first observations in 2017 August, witnessed the birth of gravitational-wave multimessenger astronomy. The first ever gravitational-wave detection from the coalescence of two neutron stars, GW170817, and its gamma-ray counterpart, GRB 170817A, led to an electromagnetic follow-up of the event at an unprecedented scale. Several teams from across the world searched for EM/neutrino counterparts to GW170817, paving the way for the discovery of optical, X-ray, and radio counterparts. In this article, we describe the online identification of gravitational-wave transients and the distribution of gravitational-wave alerts by the LIGO and Virgo collaborations during O2. We also describe the gravitational-wave observables that were sent in the alerts to enable searches for their counterparts. Finally, we give an overview of the online candidate alerts shared with observing partners during O2. Alerts were issued for 14 candidates, 6 of which have been confirmed as gravitational-wave events associated with the merger of black holes or neutron stars. Of the 14 alerts, 8 were issued less than an hour after data acquisition.

Gravtational waves↗

Directional limits on persistent gravitational waves using data from Advanced LIGO’s first two observing runs

We perform an unmodeled search for persistent, directional gravitational wave (GW) sources using data from the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO. We do not find evidence for any GW signals. We place limits on the broadband GW flux emitted at 25 Hz from point sources with a power law spectrum at F(α;Θ) < (0.05–25) × 10^(−8) erg/sq. cmsHz and the (normalized) energy density spectrum in GWs at 25 Hz from extended sources at Ω(α)(Θ) < (0.19–2.89) × 10^(−8) per sr where α is the spectral index of the energy density spectrum. These represent improvements of 2.5–3× over previous limits. We also consider point sources emitting GWs at a single frequency, targeting the directions of Sco X-1, SN 1987A, and the Galactic center. The best upper limits on the strain amplitude of a potential source in these three directions range from h(0) < (3.6–4.7) × 10^(−25), 1.5× better than previous limits set with the same analysis method. We also report on a marginally significant outlier at 36.06 Hz. This outlier is not consistent with a persistent gravitational-wave source as its significance diminishes when combining all of the available data.

B. P. Abbott↗

Search for Eccentric Binary Black Hole Mergers with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo during Their First and Second Observing Runs

When formed through dynamical interactions, stellar-mass binary black holes (BBHs) may retain eccentric orbits (e > 0.1 at 10 Hz) detectable by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. Eccentricity can therefore be used to differentiate dynamically formed binaries from isolated BBH mergers. Current template-based gravitational-wave searches do not use waveform models associated with eccentric orbits, rendering the search less efficient for eccentric binary systems. Here we present the results of a search for BBH mergers that inspiral in eccentric orbits using data from the first and second observing runs (O1 and O2) of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We carried out the search with the coherent WaveBurst algorithm, which uses minimal assumptions on the signal morphology and does not rely on binary waveform templates. We show that it is sensitive to binary mergers with a detection range that is weakly dependent on eccentricity for all bound systems. Our search did not identify any new binary merger candidates. We interpret these results in light of eccentric binary formation models. We rule out formation channels with rates ≳100 Gpc−3 yr−1 for e > 0.1, assuming a black hole mass spectrum with a power-law index ≲2.

B. P. Abbott↗

Search for Gravitational Waves From Scorpius X-1 in the Second Advanced LIGO Observing Run With an Improved Hidden Markov Model

We present results from a semi coherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO’s second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) ofh95%0¼3.47×10−25when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering.

B P Abbott↗

Optically targeted search for gravitational waves emitted by core-collapse supernovae during the first and second observing runs of advanced LIGO and advanced Virgo

We present the results from a search for gravitational-wave transients associated with core-collapse supernovae observed within a source distance of approximately 20 Mpc during the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. No significant gravitational-wave candidate was detected. We report the detection efficiencies as a function of the distance for waveforms derived from multidimensional numerical simulations and phenomenological extreme emission models. The sources with neutrino-driven explosions are detectable at the distances approaching 5 kpc, and for magnetorotationally driven explosions the distances are up to 54 kpc. However, waveforms for extreme emission models are detectable up to 28 Mpc. For the first time, the gravitational-wave data enabled us to exclude part of the parameter spaces of two extreme emission models with confidence up to 83%, limited by coincident data coverage. Besides, using ad hoc harmonic signals windowed with Gaussian envelopes, we constrained the gravitational-wave energy emitted during core collapse at the levels of 4.27 × 10^(−4) Mꙩc^(2) and 1.28 × 10^(−1) Mꙩc^(2) for emissions at 235 and 1304 Hz, respectively. These constraints are 2 orders of magnitude more stringent than previously derived in the corresponding analysis using initial LIGO, initial Virgo, and GEO 600 data.

B. P. Abbott↗

Swift-XRT Follow-up of Gravitational-wave Triggers in the Second Advanced LIGO/Virgo Observing Run

The Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory carried out prompt searches for gravitational-wave (GW) events detected by the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration (LVC) during the second observing run ("O2"). Swift performed extensive tiling of eight LVC triggers, two of which had very low false-alarm rates (GW170814 and the epochal GW170817), indicating a high confidence of being astrophysical in origin; the latter was the first GW event to have an electromagnetic counterpart detected. In this paper we describe the follow-up performed during O2 and the results of our searches. No GW electromagnetic counterparts were detected; this result is expected, as GW170817 remained the only astrophysical event containing at least one neutron star after LVC's later retraction of some events. A number of X-ray sources were detected, with the majority of identified sources being active galactic nuclei. We discuss the detection rate of transient X-ray sources and their implications in the O2 tiling searches. Finally, we describe the lessons learned during O2 and how these are being used to improve the Swift follow-up of GW events. In particular, we simulate a population of gamma-ray burst afterglows to evaluate our source ranking system's ability to differentiate them from unrelated and uncataloged X-ray sources. We find that ≈60%–70% of afterglows whose jets are oriented toward Earth will be given high rank (i.e., "interesting" designation) by the completion of our second follow-up phase (assuming that their location in the sky was observed), but that this fraction can be increased to nearly 100% by performing a third follow-up observation of sources exhibiting fading behavior.

N. J. Klingler↗

A Gravitational-wave Measurement of the Hubble Constant Following the Second Observing Run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo

This paper presents the gravitational-wave measurement of the Hubble constant (H(0)) using the detections from the first and second observing runs of the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detector network. The presence of the transient electromagnetic counterpart of the binary neutron star GW170817 led to the first standard-siren measurement of H(0). Here we additionally use binary black hole detections in conjunction with galaxy catalogs and report a joint measurement. Our updated measurement is H(0) = 69(+16,-8) km/s Mpc (68.3% of the highest density posterior interval with a flat-in-log prior) which is an improvement by a factor of 1.04 (about 4%) over the GW170817-only value of 6(+17,-8) km/s Mpc. A significant additional contribution currently comes from GW170814, a loud and well-localized detection from a part of the sky thoroughly covered by the Dark Energy Survey. With numerous detections anticipated over the upcoming years, an exhaustive understanding of other systematic effects are also going to become increasingly important. These results establish the path to cosmology using gravitational-wave observations with and without transient electromagnetic counterparts.

B. P. Abbott↗

Informing the Space Launch System Booster Separation Initial CFD Run Matrix with Observed Parametric Sensitivity

It currently requires significant computational cost to simulate the flow physics of the booster separation event on the Space Launch System. This comes from the large parametric space in which the event occurs, as pre-separation flight conditions and separated booster core-relative trajectories can vary. Functionally removing the risk of core-booster collision mandates careful assessment of the fluid dynamics in terms of several trajectory parameters. However, simulating the entire trajectory envelope is computationally intractable given the high parametric dimension. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the resulting low-parametric-resolution aerodynamic booster separation database, a data-driven approach was developed to select which breakpoints should be studied by simulations and experiments and which should be relegated to a regression-based interpolation procedure. This technique works by simulating cases where the flow physics are most sensitive to changes in the parameters and leaving the less parametrically sensitive regions for interpolation. The result is a booster separation run matrix whose computational cost is comparable to that of previous database generations but has lower interpolation errors.

SLS↗

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO–Virgo Run O3a

We search for gravitational-wave transients associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the first part of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 April 1 15:00 UTC–2019 October 1 15:00 UTC). A total of 105 GRBs were analyzed using a search for generic gravitational-wave transients; 32 GRBs were analyzed with a search that specifically targets neutron star binary mergers as short GRB progenitors. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with the GRBs that we followed up, nor for a population of unidentified subthreshold signals. We consider several source types and signal morphologies, and report for these lower bounds on the distance to each GRB.

R. Abbott↗

GWTC-2: Compact Binary Coalescences Observed by LIGO and Virgo During the First Half of the Third Observing Run

We report on gravitational wave discoveries from compact binary coalescences detected by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo in the first half of the third observing run (O3a) between 1 April 2019 15:00 UTC and 1 October 2019 15:00 UTC. By imposing a false-alarm-rate threshold of two per year in each of the four search pipelines that constitute our search, we present 39 candidate gravitational wave events. At this threshold, we expect a contamination fraction of less than 10%. Of these, 26 candidate events were reported previously in near real-time through GCN Notices and Circulars; 13 are reported here for the first time. The catalog contains events whose sources are black hole binary mergers up to a redshift of ~ 0.8, as well as events whose components could not be unambiguously identified as black holes or neutron stars. For the latter group, we are unable to determine the nature based on estimates of the component masses and spins from gravitational wave data alone. The range of candidate event masses which are unambiguously identified as binary black holes (both objects ≥ 3 M⨀) is increased compared to GWTC-1, with total masses from ∼ 14M⨀ for GW190924 021846 to ∼ 150M⨀ for GW190521. For the first time, this catalog includes binary systems with significantly asymmetric mass ratios, which had not been observed in data taken before April 2019. We also find that 11 of the 39 events detected since April 2019 have positive effective inspiral spins under our default prior (at 90% credibility), while none exhibit negative effective inspiral spin. Given the increased sensitivity of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, the detection of 39 candidate events in ∼26 weeks of data (∼1.5 per week) is consistent with GWTC-1.

Gravitational wave detection↗