Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Risk Mitigation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A regional inter-disciplinary partnership focusing on the development of a carinata-centered bioeconomy

Brassica carinata or Ethiopian mustard, a non-edible oilseed brassica, is a low carbon, purpose-grown, and none-to-low indirect land-use change bioenergy feedstock for the production of drop-in sustainable aviation fuel, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and a suite of value-added coproducts. Carinata oil converted to drop-in fuel using an American Society for Testing and Materials approved Catalytic Hydrothermolysis process has been successfully tested in commercial and military aviation. Carinata meal, the residue after oil extraction, is a high-protein feed supplement for livestock, poultry, and swine, and can also yield specialty products. The Southeast Partnership for Advanced Renewables from Carinata (SPARC) is a public–private partnership formed with a twofold mission: (1) Removing physical, environmental, social, and economic constraints that prevent regional intensification of carinata production as a low-carbon feedstock for renewable fuel and coproducts and (2) demonstrating enhanced value across the entire value chain by mitigating risk to farmers and other stakeholders. The partnership's goal is to energize the US bioeconomy through sustainable agriculture and thus contribute to energy security and economic diversification. SPARC relies on a combination of cutting-edge multidisciplinary research and active industry engagement to facilitate adoption of the crop. This involves informing stakeholders along the entire supply chain, from producers to end-users, policymakers, influencers, and the public, about the opportunities and best practices related to carinata. This article provides context and background concerning carinata commercialization as a winter cash crop in the Southeast US for renewable fuels and bioproducts. The advances made to date in the areas of feedstock development, fuel and coproduct development, meal valorization, supply chain logistics, and stakeholder engagement are outlined.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Control of airborne infectious disease in buildings: Evidence and research priorities

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virus has resulted in variants likely to be more readily transmitted through respiratory aerosols, underscoring the increased potential for indoor environmental controls to mitigate risk. Use of tight-fitting face masks to trap infectious aerosol in exhaled breath and reduce inhalation exposure to contaminated air is of critical importance for disease control. Administrative controls including the regulation of occupancy and interpersonal spacing are also important, while presenting social and economic challenges. Indoor engineering controls including ventilation, exhaust, air flow control, filtration, and disinfection by germicidal ultraviolet irradiation can reduce reliance on stringent occupancy restrictions. However, the effects of controls-individually and in combination-on reducing infectious aerosol transfer indoors remain to be clearly characterized to the extent needed to support widespread implementation by building operators. We review aerobiologic and epidemiologic evidence of indoor environmental controls against transmission and present a quantitative aerosol transfer scenario illustrating relative differences in exposure at close-interactive, room, and building scales. We identify an overarching need for investment to implement building controls and evaluate their effectiveness on infection in well-characterized and real-world settings, supported by specific, methodological advances. Finally, improved understanding of engineering control effectiveness guides implementation at scale while considering occupant comfort, operational challenges, and energy costs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems

Abstract An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among the most consequential impacts of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects of plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth and survival. These responses are exacerbated by land–atmosphere interactions that couple VPD to soil water and govern the evolution of drought, affecting a range of ecosystem services including carbon uptake, biodiversity, the provisioning of water resources and crop yields. However, despite the global nature of this phenomenon, research on how to incorporate these impacts into resilient management regimes is largely in its infancy, due in part to the entanglement of VPD trends with those of other co‐evolving climate drivers. Here, we review the mechanistic bases of VPD impacts at a range of spatial scales, paying particular attention to the independent and interactive influence of VPD in the context of other environmental changes. We then evaluate the consequences of these impacts within key management contexts, including water resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation and management of natural grasslands and forests. We conclude with recommendations describing how management regimes could be altered to mitigate the otherwise highly deleterious consequences of rising VPD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A High-Fidelity Modeling Tool to Support the Design of Oxy-Combustors for Direct-Fired Supercritical CO2 Cycles

The challenge in the design of oxy-combustors for direct-fired supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) cycles is in addressing disparate performance metrics and objectives. Key design parameters to consider include, among others, injector design for mixing and flame stability, split of recycled CO 2 diluent between injectors and cooling films, target flame temperatures to control noncondensable products, and strategies to inject the diluent CO 2 for film cooling and thermal control. In order to support novel oxy-combustor designs, a high-fidelity yet numerically efficient modeling framework based on the CRUNCH CFD® flow solver is presented, featuring key physics-based submodels relevant in this regime. For computational efficiency in modeling large kinetic sets, a flamelet/progress variable (FPV) based tabulated-chemistry approach is utilized featuring a three-stream extension to allow for the simulation of the CO 2 film cooling stream in addition to the fuel and oxidizer streams. Finite rate chemistry effects are modeled in terms of multiple progress variables for the primary flame as well as for slower-evolving chemical species such as NO x and SO x contaminants. Real fluid effects are modeled using advanced equations of states. The predictive capabilities of this computationally tractable design support tool are demonstrated on a conceptual injector design for an oxy-combustor operating near 30 MPa. Simulations results provide quantitative feedback on the effectiveness of the film cooling as well as the level of contaminants (CO, NO, and N) in the exhaust due to impurities entering from the injectors. These results indicate that this framework would be a useful tool for refining and optimizing the oxy-combustor designs as well as risk mitigation analyses.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

An adaptable technique for comparative image assessment: Application to crosswell electromagnetic survey design for fluid monitoring

Reservoir integrity stewardship accompanying carbon capture and sequestration considers fluid extraction and reinjection as a risk-mitigating method against overpressuring that could lead to caprock damage and ensuing [Formula: see text] leakage. Crosswell electromagnetics offers a technically viable monitoring method with the spatial volume coverage necessary for reservoir-encompassing pressure management. However, a certain logistic dilemma for deep gas sequestration into saline and thus electrically conductive aquifers is that crosswell magnetic-field measurements underperform in the imaging of more resistive plume bodies, further exacerbated when vertical arrays intersect, as opposed to surround, plumes. Furthermore, comparative synthetic-data plume imaging of such scenarios rates the information content of magnetic-field versus electric-field 3D crosswell layouts for reservoir and infrastructure conditions of a representative pilot site in a coastal area in Florida. The image quality of the resulting plume replications can be ranked numerically through a newly proposed semblance qualifier, appraising the model goodness of fit to a given reference. In contrast to common least-squares measures for goodness of fit, the semblance formulation uses classifying logistic function types, thus enabling a better distinction of predefined anomaly features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Determinants of rural-urban differences in health care provider visits among women of reproductive age in the United States

Background Rural health disparities and access gaps may contribute to higher maternal and infant morbidity and mortality. Understanding and addressing access barriers for specialty women’s health services is important in mitigating risks for adverse childbirth events. The objective of this study was to investigate rural-urban differences in health care access for women of reproductive age by examining differences in past-year provider visit rates by provider type, and quantifying the contributing factors to these findings. Methods and findings Using a nationally-representative sample of reproductive age women (n = 37,026) from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2010–2015) linked to the Area Health Resource File, rural-urban differences in past-year office visit rates with health care providers were examined. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis quantified the portion of disparities explained by individual- and county-level sociodemographic and provider supply characteristics. Overall, there were no rural-urban differences in past-year visits with women’s health providers collectively (65.0% vs 62.4%), however differences were observed by provider type. Rural women had lower past-year obstetrician-gynecologist (OB-GYN) visit rates than urban women (23.3% vs. 26.6%), and higher visit rates with family medicine physicians (24.3% vs. 20.9%) and nurse practitioners/physician assistants (NPs/PAs) (24.6% vs. 16.1%). Lower OB-GYN availability in rural versus urban counties (6.1 vs. 13.7 providers/100,000 population) explained most of the rural disadvantage in OB-GYN visit rates (83.8%), and much of the higher family physician (80.9%) and NP/PA (50.1%) visit rates. Other individual- and county-level characteristics had smaller effects on rural-urban differences. Conclusion Although there were no overall rural-urban differences in past-year visit rates, the lower OB-GYN availability in rural areas appears to affect the types of health care providers seen by women. Whether rural women are receiving adequate specialized women’s health care services, while seeing a different cadre of providers, warrants further investigation and has particular relevance for women experiencing high-risk pregnancies and deliveries.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards Automated/Semiautomated Extraction of Faults from Lidar Data

The Pajarito fault system is a complex zone of deformation and a seismically active region nestled within the Rio Grande rift in north-central New Mexico. Numerous laterally discontinuous faults and associated folds and fractures interact in a manner that has important implications for seismic hazards and risk mitigation. Previous efforts have established a foundation for the location of lineaments and structures in the Pajarito fault system; however, ensuring the completeness of the current lineament mapping is required for identifying areas for field validation, evaluating the potential for future seismic activity, and better understanding fault interaction. Assistance with this fault-mapping task via automated or semiautomated techniques as applied to lidar data over a large area of interest is highly desirable. A proof-of-concept processing flow which transforms lidar point-cloud data into a raster of surficial fault candidates is described and illustrated herein. We report these initial results hold great promise toward achieving our ultimate goal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

TEAMER: Biofouling Analysis for Wave Energy Piston Design - Load Cell Data

Biofouling and corrosion are a major concern for all ocean-deployed components, especially when mechanical motion is involved. Triton has developed the concept of a biofouling mitigation seal as part of the piston sealing assembly for the Triton Wave Energy Converter (TSI-WEC). This mitigation seal has the purpose of preventing the formation of a biofilm on the inside of the piston cylinder. It is hypothesized that the prevention of a biofilm will reduce the amount of macro-biofouling that can occur in the piston assembly. The mitigation seal can also reduce the wear on the main dynamic seal, helping to maintain smooth operation and water-tightness. The cylinder is made from a thermoset composite epoxy, which is resistant to corrosion. However, no studies have researched the material's performance with biofouling. Triton placed two prototype Power Take-Off (PTO) assemblies in a PNNL biofouling tank, one with a biofouling mitigation seal and one without, allowing for an evaluation of seal effectiveness at the prevention of biofouling. In actual WEC operation, wave action would react against the piston, which would drive the linear actuator and electric generator, providing electrical power. In the test setup, this was reversed; a linear actuator was powered to drive the piston in a consistent motion within the cylinder. There are two assemblies: one has a biofouling mitigation seal, the other (control) does not. The following data encompasses a 4 month test period, with load cells being used to monitor piston friction force. Results from this testing will be used to improve seal design and material selection, mitigating risk of premature failure during open water testing and evaluation. This project is part of the TEAMER RFTS 3 (request for technical support) program.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiwell Fiber Optic Sensing Reveals Effects of CO2 Flow on Triggered Seismicity

Induced seismicity is one of the main risks for gigaton-scale geological storage of carbon dioxide (⁠CO 2 ⁠). Thus, passive seismic monitoring is often recommended as a necessary component of the monitoring systems for CO 2 storage projects, with a particular forcus on risk mitigation. We present the first field study, CO2CRC Otway Project Stage 3 (Victoria, Australia), where distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) enabled high-precision tracking of the induced seismicity triggered by a small CO 2 injection and also informed the reservoir models. In 610 days of passive seismic monitoring of the Stage 3 injection, we detected 17 microseismic events (maximum moment magnitude Mw 0.1) using five deep boreholes equipped with enhanced-sensitivity optical fiber. The DAS array has sensitivity sufficient for detection and location of induced events with M w ~ ₋2 in a monitoring borehole located up to 1500 m away. Thanks to the dense spatial sampling by the DAS, we were able to estimate the focal mechanisms for events with M w > ₋1.5; although the monitoring boreholes provided very limited angular coverage. The main cluster of the events has the same location and source mechanism as the one triggered by the previous CO 2 injection at the Otway Project site, Stage 2C. Surprizingly, the Stage 2C and Stage 3 events closely followed the actual movement of the CO 2 saturation plume front (not the pressure front), as observed using controlled-source reflection seismic images. The nature of the plume-fault interaction remains unclear, but some alteration of the fault gouge by CO 2 might be responsible for the faults’ reactivation by the pressure perturbation. Importantly, the seismogenic fault could not be identified in the seismic images and was only revealed by DAS observations, which also demonstrated the signature of fluid–rock interaction, that may control the CO 2 flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solubility Testing to Support the Addition of Sodium Reactor Experiment Material to Sludge Batch 10

The Savannah River Site H-Canyon Facility is planning to discard dissolved Sodium Reactor Experiment (SRE) material into Tank 51 prior to Sludge Batch 10 (SB10). SB10 with the SRE material will be processed in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) using the Nitric-Glycolic Acid (NGA) flowsheet. The DWPF Nuclear Criticality Safety Evaluation (NCSE) protects a 14:1 mass ratio of manganese to equivalent uranium-235 in both the solid and liquid phases during processing by requiring a 70:1 mass ratio in the feed. A concern was raised that freshly precipitated manganese in the SRE material will behave differently from the manganese in sludge during DWPF processing and potentially invalidate the criticality control. To mitigate risks to the DWPF criticality controls, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) performed a metals solubility test applicable to recently precipitated manganese and uranium, as would be expected with SRE transfers to SB10. The objective of this analysis is the tracking of partitioning of the primary fissile component (uranium-235) with the credited poison (manganese) between the aqueous and insoluble phases.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

CISME report on experiments with HMX powder, PBX 9501 prills, and heated PBX 9501

The ability to predict post-ignition explosive response is relevant to explosives safety, particularly weapons assembly/disassembly operations that must operate under a sufficiently conservative safety basis to meet risk mitigation criteria for inadvertent nuclear detonation (IND). In particular, hazard determinations hinge on whether the PBX 9501 main charge can ultimately attain detonation from an initial, non-shock, ignition stimulus. The CISME experiment uses a spherical explosive charge, which is thermally ignited in the center using a fiber-delivered infrared laser pulse. This ignition mechanism - i.e. a localized thermal hotspot - is representative of the ignition-causing insults typical in accident scenarios, including low-velocity impact, drop, skid, and punch events. In fiscal year 2018 CISME experiments were conducted with pristine PBX 9501 spheres, confined and unconfined. Sub-detonative, low-violence reactions were observed. Here we report experiments conducted since 2018. The explosive charge was varied: experiments were conducted with room temperature pour-density HMX powder and prills of PBX 9501, and heated, thermally damaged PBX 9501. Experiments were conducted in a confined configuration, with two 4 mm-thick stainless-steel hemispherical shells bolted around the sphere. Detonation, via DDT (deflagration-to-detonation transition) was observed in the 3-inch diameter powdered HMX and the 6-inch diameter heated and thermally-damaged PBX 9501 tests. No transition to DDT was observed in smaller diameters for those configurations, and no DDT was observed for pour-density prills of PBX 9501 of any diameter. The original test series demonstrated that the response of pristine, undamaged PBX 9501 to a central ignition is relatively benign. This new test series shows that increased porosity, lack of polymer binders and thermal damage can greatly increase the violence of the post-ignition response, up to and including detonation. These results bridge the explosive response of PBX 9501 from sub-detonative through detonation as a function of diameter and provide valuable test cases for modeling efforts that strive to capture the DDT threshold. By exploring explosive response in a more representative 3D geometry, we can also benchmark these new results to more plentiful DDT datasets generated from testing in 1D tube confinement (the historical test configuration)–the configuration upon which almost all DDT models were developed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

DOE/SNL/GCBS: Biorisk Management Curriculum for Vietnam One Health University Network

In line with the Global Health Security Agenda for Vietnam SNL has successfully engaged in country by ensuring long term sustainability of its programs and building BRM capacity by engaging with Government Institutions and strengthening the national biosafety and biosecurity and also by engaging with academic institutions through Vietnam One Health University Network to educate the One Health Workforce and promote a shared culture of responsibility, reduce dual use risks, mitigate biological proliferation and deliberate use threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

sCO 2 Brayton Energy Conversion Customer Discovery

All energy production systems need efficient energy conversion systems. Current Rankine cycles use water to generate steam at temperatures where efficiency is limited to around 40%. As existing fossil and nuclear power plants are decommissioned due to end of effective life and/or societies’ desire for cleaner generation options, more efficient energy conversion is needed to keep up with increasing electricity demands. Modern energy generation technologies, such as advanced nuclear reactors and concentrated solar, coupled to high efficiency sCO 2 conversion systems provide a solution to efficient, clean energy systems. Leading R&D communities worldwide agree that the successful development of sCO 2 Brayton power cycle technology will eventually bring about large-scale changes to existing multi-billion-dollar global markets and enable power applications not currently possible or economically justifiable. However, all new technologies face challenges in the path to commercialization and the electricity sector is distinctively risk averse. The Sandia sCO 2 Brayton team needs to better understand what the electricity sector needs in terms of new technology risk mitigation, generation efficiency, reliability improvements above current technology, and cost requirements which would make new technology adoption worthwhile. Relying on the R&D community consensus that a sCO 2 power cycle will increase the revenue of the electrical industry, without addressing the electrical industry’s concerns, significantly decreases the potential for adoption at commercial scale. With a clear understanding of the market perspectives on technology adoption, including military, private sector, and utilities customers, the Sandia Brayton Team can resolve industry concerns for smoother development and faster transition to commercialization. An extensive customer discovery process, similar to that executed through the NSF’s I-Corp program, is necessary in order to understand the pain points of the market and articulate the value proposition of Brayton systems in terms that engage decision makers and facilitate commercialization of the technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

China and Multi-Domain Strategic Stability (Annotated Bibliography)

Brief summaries of literature relating to four areas: China's Approach to Multi-Domain Complexity, China's Approach to Multi-Domain Strategic Stability, A Cooperative Management Approach, and Risk Mitigation in the Absence of Cooperative Approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biofouling Analysis for Wave Energy Piston Design: CRADA 542 [Abstract only]

Triton System’s Wave Energy Converter (WEC) uses an oscillating water column approach to provide small scale power to ocean observing and navigational buoys. Biofouling and corrosion are a major concern for all ocean-deployed components, especially when mechanical motion is involved. Triton Systems will collaborate with PNNL to evaluate seals, materials, and component performance in a controlled biofouling test environment. Results from this testing will be used to improve seal design and material selection, mitigating risk of premature failure during open water testing and evaluation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Stage and Multi-Timescale Robust Co-Optimization Planning for Reliable and Sustainable Power Systems. Final Report

In this project, Clarkson University, in collaboration with Southern Methodist University and University of Pittsburgh, conducted the research to model, design, and implement a sophisticated generation and transmission co-optimization planning decision tool, called Multi-stage and Multi-timescale robust Co-Optimization Planning (MMCOP). The MMCOP decision tool intends to facilitate generation and transmission co-optimization planning of emerging power systems, while mitigating risks and uncertainties in both short-term operation dynamics and long-term policy and technology changes. Long-term power system planning aims at optimizing asset utilization by investing in a proper mix of various generation technologies and transmission lines to supply the future load growth. In particular, the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which is designed to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions by setting a national limit on carbon pollution from power plants, may dramatically change the landscape of the power industry by further promoting clean energy and phasing out emissions-intensive generation technologies. In addition, novel non-wire alternatives (e.g., demand response (DR), distributed generation (DG), energy efficiency (EE), and smart grid technologies) and the computational complexity for large-scale systems significantly complicate the system planning procedure even further. However, existing conventional planning approaches neglect short-term variability and uncertainty of renewable energy, hourly chronological operation details, and physical nonlinear characteristics of the alternating current transmission network. As a result, existing conventional planning approaches may not work properly, and power systems reliability could be in jeopardy. In observing the limitations of existing conventional planning approaches and addressing new challenges of emerging power systems, the main scope of this project to develop co-optimization planning models within a multi-stage and multi-timescale framework. In particular, random contingencies, key uncertainty factors, and AC power flows are included to derive expansion plans while considering both long-term reliability and short-term flexibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Competitiveness and Commercialization of Energy Technologies: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. Competitive U.S.-based clean energy manufacturers and rapid commercialization of U.S.-developed technologies are critical to secure energy supply chains, generate high quality jobs, and meet the United States’ national security, energy and climate objectives. The February 2021 “Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains” (E.O. 14017) directs the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to evaluate supply chains that encompass the energy industrial base, focusing on technologies that are critical to meet U.S. decarbonization goals by 2050. Understanding and analyzing the end-to-end supply chain through economic analysis is crucial to mitigating risks and identifying opportunities to enhance U.S. competitiveness in the clean energy industry. This insight will allow the Department of Energy (DOE) to leverage its research, development, demonstration and deployment (RDD&D) capabilities to most fully realize the objectives of E.O. 14017.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗