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At least 145 records · Page 8

Utility of Terrestrial Cardiovascular Disease Data in Astronaut Radiation Risk Assessment – A Case Study Showing Increased Risk with Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is associated with high doses of radiation and is are cognized health risk for astronauts on multiple or long duration exploration missions to the Moon or Mars. Currently, radiation risk assessment is based on background population disease rates and does not consider individual risk factors that may modify analysis, especially at lower radiation doses.

Zarana S Patel↗

US EPA Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment Update: Superfund Update: Revisions to Risk and Dose Assessment Tools - 18232

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund remedial program is finishing up a significant number of revisions to its guidance for the risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated Superfund sites. The six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A comprehensive set of revisions to the PRG calculator was finished in November 2014. Additional revisions to the other 5 calculators were made in 2015. A set of further revisions are expected to be finalized prior to December 2016 and will be discussed in this abstract. There are several additional revisions that may be finished prior to WM 2017 and will be presented if finished or discussed in more general terms if still underway. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

US EPA Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment Update: Superfund Update: Revisions to Risk and Dose Assessment Tools - 19057

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund remedial program is finishing up a significant number of revisions to its guidance for the risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated Superfund sites. The six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet-based calculators for radiation risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical Regional Screening Level calculator. A comprehensive set of revisions to the PRG calculator was finished in November 2014. Additional revisions to the other 5 calculators were made in 2015. A set of further revisions are expected to be finalized prior to December 2018 and will be discussed in this abstract. A new Radon Vapor Intrusion Screening Level (RVISL) calculator is expected to be finished in 2019, similar to the Vapor Intrusion Screening Level (VISL) for chemical calculator that was finished in 2018. There are several additional revisions that may be finished prior to WM 2019 and will be presented if finished or discussed in more general terms if still underway. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

MRI screening for breast cancer in women at high risk; is the Australian breast MRI screening access program addressing the needs of women at high risk of breast cancer?

Breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening of women under 50 years old at high familial risk of breast cancer was given interim funding by Medicare in 2009 on the basis that a review would be undertaken. An updated literature review has been undertaken by the Medical Services Advisory Committee but there has been no assessment of the quality of the screening or other screening outcomes. This review examines the evidence basis of breast MRI screening and how this fits within an Australian context with the purpose of informing future modifications to the provision of Medicare-funded breast MRI screening in Australia. Issues discussed will include selection of high-risk women, the options for MRI screening frequency and measuring the outcomes of screening.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Imaging dose in breast radiotherapy: does breast size affect the dose to the organs at risk and the risk of secondary cancer to the contralateral breast?

Correct target positioning is crucial for accurate dose delivery in breast radiotherapy resulting in utilisation of daily imaging. However, the radiation dose from daily imaging is associated with increased probability of secondary induced cancer. The aim of this study was to quantify doses associated with three imaging modalities and investigate the correlation of dose and varying breast size in breast radiotherapy. Planning computed tomography (CT) data sets of 30 breast cancer patients were utilised to simulate the dose received by various organs from a megavoltage computed tomography (MV-CT), megavoltage electronic portal image (MV-EPI) and megavoltage cone-beam computed tomography (MV-CBCT). The mean dose to organs adjacent to the target volume (contralateral breast, lungs, spinal cord and heart) were analysed. Pearson correlation analysis was performed to determine the relationship between imaging dose and primary breast volume and the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of induced secondary cancer was calculated for the contralateral breast. The highest contralateral breast mean dose was from the MV-CBCT (1.79 Gy), followed by MV-EPI (0.22 Gy) and MV-CT (0.11 Gy). A similar trend was found for all organs at risk (OAR) analysed. The primary breast volume inversely correlated with the contralateral breast dose for all three imaging modalities. As the primary breast volume increases, the likelihood of a patient developing a radiation-induced secondary cancer to the contralateral breast decreases. MV-CBCT showed a stronger relationship between breast size and LAR of developing a radiation-induced contralateral breast cancer in comparison with the MV-CT and MV-EPI. For breast patients, imaging dose to OAR depends on imaging modality and treated breast size. When considering the use of imaging during breast radiotherapy, the patient's breast size and contralateral breast dose should be taken into account.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

Abstract As climate change continues, the likelihood of passing critical thresholds or tipping points increases. Hence, there is a need to advance the science for detecting such thresholds. In this paper, we assess the needs and opportunities for Earth Observation (EO, here understood to refer to satellite observations) to inform society in responding to the risks associated with ten potential large-scale ocean tipping elements: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Atlantic Subpolar Gyre; Beaufort Gyre; Arctic halocline; Kuroshio Large Meander; deoxygenation; phytoplankton; zooplankton; higher level ecosystems (including fisheries); and marine biodiversity. We review current scientific understanding and identify specific EO and related modelling needs for each of these tipping elements. We draw out some generic points that apply across several of the elements. These common points include the importance of maintaining long-term, consistent time series; the need to combine EO data consistently with in situ data types (including subsurface), for example through data assimilation; and the need to reduce or work with current mismatches in resolution (in both directions) between climate models and EO datasets. Our analysis shows that developing EO, modelling and prediction systems together, with understanding of the strengths and limitations of each, provides many promising paths towards monitoring and early warning systems for tipping, and towards the development of the next generation of climate models.

Wood, Richard A. (ORCID:0000000239609513)↗

Simultaneous Integrated Boost Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy in the Postoperative Treatment of High-Risk to Intermediate-Risk Endometrial Cancer: Results of ADA II Phase 1-2 Trial

Purpose: A prospective phase 1-2 clinical trial aimed at determining the recommended postoperative dose of simultaneous integrated boost volumetric modulated arc therapy (SIB-VMAT) in a large series of patients with high-risk and intermediate-risk endometrial cancer (HIR-EC) is presented. The study also evaluated the association between rate and severity of toxicity and comorbidities and the clinical outcomes. Methods and Materials: Two SIB-VMAT dose levels were investigated for boost to the vaginal vault, whereas the pelvic lymph nodes were always treated with 45 Gy. The first cohort received a SIB-VMAT dose of 55 Gy in 25 consecutive 2.2-Gy fractions, and the subsequent cohort received higher doses (60 Gy in 2.4-Gy fractions). Results: Seventy consecutive HIR-EC patients, roughly half of whom were obese (47.1%) or overweight (37.1%), with Charlson Age-Comorbidity Index >2 (48.5%), were enrolled. Thirty-one patients (44.3%) were administered adjuvant chemotherapy before starting radiation therapy. All patients (n=35 per dose level) completed irradiation without any dose-limiting toxicity. Proctitis (any grade) was associated with radiation therapy dose (P=.001); not so enterocolitis. Grade ≥2 gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) toxicity were recorded in 17 (24.3%) and 14 patients (20.0%), respectively, and were not associated with radiation dose. As for late toxicity, none of patients experienced late grade ≥3 GI or grade ≥2 GU toxicity. The 3-year late grade ≥2 GI and GU toxicity–free survival were 92.8% and 100%, respectively, with no difference between the 2 dose levels. With a median follow-up period of 25 months (range, 4-60 months), relapse/progression of disease was observed in 10 of 70 patients (14.2%). The 3-year cumulative incidence of recurrence was 1.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2-10.7), whereas the 3-year disease-free survival was 81.3% (95% CI: 65.0-90.0). Conclusions: This clinical study showed the feasibility of this technique and its good profile in terms of acute and late toxicity at the recommended doses even in aged and frail patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Risk: WARMING IMPACTS ON SNOWPACK AND FLOOD RISK

This study investigates temperature impacts to snowpack and runoff-driven flood risk over the Sierra Nevada during the extremely wet year of 2016–2017, which followed the extraordinary California drought of 2011–2015. By perturbing near-surface temperatures from a 9-km dynamically downscaled simulation, a series of offline land surface model experiments explore how Sierra Nevada hydrology has already been impacted by historical anthropogenic warming and how these impacts evolve under future warming scenarios. Results show that historical warming reduced 2016–2017 Sierra Nevada snow water equivalent by 20% while increasing early-season runoff by 30%. An additional one third to two thirds loss of snowpack is projected by the end of the century, depending on the emission scenario, with middle elevations experiencing the most significant declines. Notably, the number of days in the future with runoff exceeding 20 mm nearly doubles under a mitigation emission scenarios and triples under a business-as-usual scenario. A smaller snow-to-rain ratio, as opposed to increased snowmelt, is found to be the primary mechanism of temperature impacts to Sierra snowpack and runoff. These findings are consequential to the prevalence of early-season floods in the Sierra Nevada. In the Feather River Watershed, historical warming increased runoff by over one third during the period of heaviest precipitation in February 2017. This suggests that historical anthropogenic warming may have exacerbated runoff conditions underlying the Oroville Dam spillway overflow that occurred in this month. As warming continues in the future, the potential for runoff-based flood risk may rise even higher.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Low Risk of SSR in Type III Wind Turbines Operating in Grid-Forming Control: Preprint

We have shown in a previous work that the risk of sub-synchronous resonance (SSR) between a wind power plant with Type III wind turbines and series-compensated transmission lines is low when the wind turbines in the plant are operated in grid-forming mode, instead of the standard grid-following mode. The fundamental mechanism behind the improved damping characteristics is explained in this paper by modeling the positive and negative sequence impedances of Type III wind turbines for GFM operation mode. It is discovered that the GFM control naturally acts against the negative resistance of Type III wind turbines that results from an interaction between the proportional gain of the rotor-side converter current controller and negative slip. The developed sequence impedance models and improved damping behavior are verified using PSCAD simulations of a 2.5-MW Type III GFM wind turbine. The modeling predictions are also supported by experimentally measuring the sequence impedance response of a 2.5-MW Type III wind turbine during operation in GFL and GFM modes.

grid-following turbine↗

Financial incentives for reducing proliferation risks

This article submitted for publication to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists explains the possible financial incentives for financial institutions and large integrators to reduce nuclear proliferation risks by including anti-proliferation measures in their due diligence and requiring their suppliers to meet heightened compliance standards. Because manufacturers of dual-use nuclear goods are diverse and numerous outreach is difficult. However, financial institutions and large integrators work with nearly all dual-use manufacturers, making financial institutions and integrators well-positioned to increase awareness of proliferation and trafficking risks throughout the nuclear supply chain

anti-proliferation↗

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Norovirus Transmission in Food Establishments: Evaluating the Impact of Intervention Strategies and Food Employee Behavior on the Risk Associated with Norovirus in Foods

Abstract We developed a quantitative risk assessment model using a discrete event framework to quantify and study the risk associated with norovirus transmission to consumers through food contaminated by infected food employees in a retail food setting. This study focused on the impact of ill food workers experiencing symptoms of diarrhea and vomiting and potential control measures for the transmission of norovirus to foods. The model examined the behavior of food employees regarding exclusion from work while ill and after symptom resolution and preventive measures limiting food contamination during preparation. The mean numbers of infected customers estimated for 21 scenarios were compared to the estimate for a baseline scenario representing current practices. Results show that prevention strategies examined could not prevent norovirus transmission to food when a symptomatic employee was present in the food establishment. Compliance with exclusion from work of symptomatic food employees is thus critical, with an estimated range of 75–226% of the baseline mean for full to no compliance, respectively. Results also suggest that efficient handwashing, handwashing frequency associated with gloving compliance, and elimination of contact between hands, faucets, and door handles in restrooms reduced the mean number of infected customers to 58%, 62%, and 75% of the baseline, respectively. This study provides quantitative data to evaluate the relative efficacy of policy and practices at retail to reduce norovirus illnesses and provides new insights into the interactions and interplay of prevention strategies and compliance in reducing transmission of foodborne norovirus.

Duret, Steven↗

Modeling the dosimetry of organ-at-risk in head and neck IMRT planning: An intertechnique and interinstitutional study

Purpose: To build a statistical model to quantitatively correlate the anatomic features of structures and the corresponding dose-volume histogram (DVH) of head and neck (HN) Tomotherapy (Tomo) plans. To study if the model built upon one intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) technique (such as conventional Linac) can be used to predict anticipated organs-at-risk (OAR) DVH of patients treated with a different IMRT technique (such as Tomo). To study if the model built upon the clinical experience of one institution can be used to aid IMRT planning for another institution. Methods: Forty-four Tomotherapy intensity modulate radiotherapy plans of HN cases (Tomo-IMRT) from Institution A were included in the study. A different patient group of 53 HN fixed gantry IMRT (FG-IMRT) plans was selected from Institution B. The analyzed OARs included the parotid, larynx, spinal cord, brainstem, and submandibular gland. Two major groups of anatomical features were considered: the volumetric information and the spatial information. The volume information includes the volume of target, OAR, and overlapped volume between target and OAR. The spatial information of OARs relative to PTVs was represented by the distance-to-target histogram (DTH). Important anatomical and dosimetric features were extracted from DTH and DVH by principal component analysis. Two regression models, one for Tomotherapy plan and one for IMRT plan, were built independently. The accuracy of intratreatment-modality model prediction was validated by a leave one out cross-validation method. The intertechnique and interinstitution validations were performed by using the FG-IMRT model to predict the OAR dosimetry of Tomo-IMRT plans. The dosimetry of OARs, under the same and different institutional preferences, was analyzed to examine the correlation between the model prediction and planning protocol. Results: Significant patient anatomical factors contributing to OAR dose sparing in HN Tomotherapy plans have been analyzed and identified. For all the OARs, the discrepancies of dose indices between the model predicted values and the actual plan values were within 2.1%. Similar results were obtained from the modeling of FG-IMRT plans. The parotid gland was spared in a comparable fashion during the treatment planning of two institutions. The model based on FG-IMRT plans was found to predict the median dose of the parotid of Tomotherapy plans quite well, with a mean error of 2.6%. Predictions from the FG-IMRT model suggested the median dose of the larynx, median dose of the brainstem and D2 of the brainstem could be reduced by 10.5%, 12.8%, and 20.4%, respectively, in the Tomo-IMRT plans. This was found to be correlated to the institutional differences in OAR constraint settings. Re-planning of six Tomotherapy patients confirmed the potential of optimization improvement predicted by the FG-IMRT model was correct. Conclusions: The authors established a mathematical model to correlate the anatomical features and dosimetric indexes of OARs of HN patients in Tomotherapy plans. The model can be used for the setup of patient-specific OAR dose sparing goals and quality control of planning results. The institutional clinical experience was incorporated into the model which allows the model from one institution to generate a reference plan for another institution, or another IMRT technique.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Toward optimal organ at risk sparing in complex volumetric modulated arc therapy: An exponential trade-off with target volume dose homogeneity

Purpose: Conventional radiotherapy typically aims for homogenous dose in the planning target volume (PTV) while sparing organs at risk (OAR). The authors quantified and characterized the trade-off between PTV dose inhomogeneity (IH) and OAR sparing in complex head and neck volumetric modulated arc therapy plans. Methods: Thirteen simultaneous integrated boost plans were created per patient, for ten patients. PTV boost{sub (B)}/elective{sub (E)} optimization priorities were systematically increased. IH{sub B} and IH{sub E}, defined as (100% − V95%) + V107%, were evaluated against the average of the mean dose to the combined composite swallowing and combined salivary organs (D-OAR{sub comp}). To investigate the influence of OAR size and position with respect to PTV{sub B/E}, OAR dose was evaluated against a modified Euclidean distance (DM{sub B}/DM{sub E}) between OAR and PTV. Results: Although the achievable D-OAR{sub comp} for a given level of PTV IH differed between patients, excellent logarithmic fits described the D-OAR{sub comp}/IH{sub B} and IH{sub E} relationship in all patients (mean R{sup 2} of 0.98 and 0.97, respectively). Allowing an increase in average IH{sub B} and IH{sub E} over a clinically acceptable range, e.g., from 0.4% ± 0.5% to 2.0% ± 2.0% and 6.9% ± 2.8% to 14.8% ± 2.7%, respectively, corresponded to a decrease in average dose to the composite salivary and swallowing structures from 30.3 ± 6.5 to 23.6 ± 4.7 Gy and 32.5 ± 8.3 to 26.8 ± 9.3 Gy. The increase in PTV{sub E} IH was mainly accounted for by an increase in V107, by on average 5.9%, rather than a reduction in V95, which was on average only 2%. A linear correlation was found between the OAR dose to composite swallowing structures and contralateral parotid and submandibular gland, with DM{sub E} (R{sup 2} = 0.83, 0.88, 0.95). Only mean ipsilateral parotid dose correlated with DM{sub B} (R{sup 2} = 0.87). Conclusions: OAR sparing is highly dependent on the permitted PTV{sub B/E} IH. PTV{sub E} IH substantially influences OAR doses. These results are relevant for clinical practice and for future automated treatment-planning strategies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in the flashiness of the event. This work highlights the utility of using storyline approaches for communicating climate risk and demonstrates the potential nonlinearities associated with hydrologic extremes in areas that experience ephemeral snowpack, such as the SRB.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

ORNL Peer Review Summary and Recommendations for: Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors Study

The purpose of this document is to provide a summary of the peer review conducted for the "Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors" study prepared by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) International Nuclear Security (INS) program team requested that ORNL perform a peer review of the study report prior to publication as a final peer check before distributing the report to a broader audience.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗