SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
The feasibility of extended and long-range weather prediction by means of global atmospheric models was studied. A number of computer experiments were conducted at GISS with the GISS global general circulation model. Topics discussed include atmospheric response to sea-surface temperature anomalies, and monthly mean forecast experiments with the global model.
Models of the radial variation of effective viscosity inferred from the earth's response to surface loads associated with Pleistocene deglaciation are compared to structures inferred from models of geodynamic phenomena associated with convection: the geoid, plate-driving forces, and advected heat flux. While observations of the earth's response to surface loads do not have sufficient resolution to justify more than two viscous layers, adequately matching the observed long-wavelength geoid anomalies associated with density contrasts in the lower mantle (inferred from seismic tomography) and in the upper mantle (inferred from a model of subducted slabs) requires more structure. It is possible to explain the geoid, observed plate velocities, the advected heat flux in the lower mantle, and relative sea-level variations in oceanic regions, all with a mantle with a high-viscosity/elastic lid, an asthenospheric channel of 2 x 10 exp 19 Pa s from 100 to 400-km depth, a 6 x 10 exp 20 Pa s transition zone, and a lower mantle of 6 x 10 exp 21 Pa s. The uplift history of Australia, Fennoscandia, and Laurentia can be explained with an asthenospheric viscosity less than a factor of 10 higher. Lateral variations in lower mantle viscosity are not required. Transient creep appears to be unimportant for the recent response-to-surface loads from Pleistocene deglaciation.
We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against observations.
Recently published findings using satellite and ground-based observations indicate a large winter and summertime decrease in the column abundance of ozone at high and middle latitudes during the last decade. Using a simple ozone depletion profile reflecting the observed decrease in ozone column abundance, Ramaswamy et al. (1992) showed that the negative radiative forcing that results from the ozone decrease between 1979 and 1990 approximately balanced the greenhouse climate forcing due to the chlorofluorocarbons emitted during the same period. Here, we extend the forcing analyses by calculating the equilibrium surface temperature response explicitly, using an updated version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research two-dimensional radiative-dynamical seasonal model. The calculated steady state responses suggest that the surface cooling due to the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere offsets about 30% of the surface warming due to greenhouse gases emitted during the same decade. The temperature offset is roughly a factor of 2 larger than the corresponding offset obtained from forcing intercomparisons. This result appears to be related to the climate feedback mechanisms operating in the model troposphere, most notably that associated with atmospheric meridional heat transport. Thus a comprehensive assessment of ozone change effects on the predicted greenhouse warming cannot be accomplished based on forcing evaluations alone. Our results also show that calculations adopting a seasonally and latitudinally dependent ozone depletion profile produce a negative forcing about 50% smaller than that calculated for the depletion profile used by Ramaswamy et al. (1992).
On June 15, 2022, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality monitoring site at Suffolk/Holland, a rural site in southeast Virginia, recorded its first ozone exceedance since 2016. An ozone exceedance day occurs when the daily maximum 8-hour average surface ozone concentration is greater than 70 ppb. On this day, it was 75 ppb. This event is also noteworthy due to the rapid increase in surface ozone between 6 am and 9 am EDT as well as the hourly maximum ozone concentration of 82 ppb that was measured at 1 pm EDT. In this analysis, we utilize various observational and model data to determine the atmospheric conditions responsible for this ozone exceedance event. The analysis is conducted in two parts: (1) an evaluation of the accuracy of the GEOS-CF and WRF-Chem model forecasts and (2) an investigation of the mechanisms responsible for the high surface ozone at the Virginia DEQ Suffolk/Holland monitoring site. Comparisons of model forecasted ozone time-height cross sections with measured ozone by lidars from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) at NASA Langley and NASA Goddard reveal that both models forecasted ozone reasonably well near the surface. Model and observational data reveal that an upper-level ridge was present over much of the eastern United States, with a broad anticyclonic circulation near the surface, resulting in north-northeasterly flow over southeast Virginia. Back trajectory calculations using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) and model data suggest that a low-level plume rich in ozone and precursor species originating from the New York City and New Jersey region was transported along the east coast between June 14 and June 15, arriving in southeast Virginia around 6 am EDT on June 15. In the early morning hours, this plume mixed down to the surface, elevating the background ozone mixing ratio as well as the mixing ratios of several precursor species. Other potential contributions are also explored and discussed. Lastly, the authors note that this work represents the analysis of the authors and not the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality.
This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.
Accurate characterization of entry capsule heat shield material properties is a critical component in modeling and simulating Thermal Protection System (TPS) response in a prescribed aerothermal environment. The thermal decomposition of the TPS material during the pyrolysis and charring processes is poorly characterized and typically results in large uncertainties in material properties as inputs for ablation models. These material property uncertainties contribute to large design margins on flight systems and cloud re- construction efforts for data collected during flight and ground testing, making revision to existing models for entry systems more challenging. The analysis presented in this work quantifies how material property uncertainties propagate through an ablation model and guides an experimental test regimen aimed at reducing these uncertainties and characterizing the dependencies between properties in the virgin and charred states for a Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) based TPS. A sensitivity analysis identifies how the high-fidelity model behaves in the expected flight environment, while a Monte Carlo based uncertainty propagation strategy is used to quantify the expected spread in the in-depth temperature response of the TPS. An examination of how perturbations to the input probability density functions affect output temperature statistics is accomplished using a Kriging response surface of the high-fidelity model. Simulations are based on capsule configuration and aerothermal environments expected during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry sequence. We identify and rank primary sources of uncertainty from material properties in a flight-relevant environment, show the dependence on spatial orientation and in-depth location on those uncertainty contributors, and quantify how sensitive the expected results are.
The integration of nonlinear neural network methods with conventional linear regression techniques is demonstrated for representative wind tunnel force balance data modeling. This work was motivated by a desire to formulate precision intervals for response surfaces produced by neural networks. Applications are demonstrated for representative wind tunnel data acquired at NASA Langley Research Center and the Arnold Engineering Development Center in Tullahoma, TN.
Here we present preliminary results from the analysis of the low cloud cover (LCC) and cloud radiative effect (CRE) interannual changes in response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcings in two GISS climate models, and 12 other climate models. We further classify them as a function of their ability to reproduce the vertical structure of the cloud response to SST change against 10 years of CALIPSO observations: “the constrained models, which match the observation constraint, and the unconstrained models”. The constrained models replicate the observed interannual LCC change particularly well (ΔLCC(sub con)=-3.49 ±1.01 %/K vs. ΔLCC(sub obs)=-3.59 ±0.28 %/K) as opposed to the unconstrained models, which largely underestimate it (ΔLCC(sub unc) = -1.32 ± 1.28 %/K). As a result, the amount of short-wave warming simulated by the constrained models (ΔCRE(sub con)=2.60 ±1.13 W/m2/K) is in better agreement with the observations (ΔCRE(sub obs)=3.05 ±0.28 W/m2/K) than the unconstrained models (ΔCRE(sub con)=0.87 ±2.63 W/m2/K). Depending on the type of low cloud, the observed relationship between cloud/radiation and surface temperature varies. Over the stratocumulus regions, increasing SSTs generate higher cloud top height along with a large decrease of the cloud fraction below as opposed to a slight decrease of the cloud fraction at each level over the trade cumulus regions. Our results suggest that the models must generate sustainable stratocumulus decks and moist processes in the planetary boundary layer to reproduce these observed features. Future work will focus on defining a method to objectively discriminate these cloud types that can be applied consistently in both the observations and the models.
The main objective of this investigation was the characterization of soil moisture using imaging radars. In order to accomplish this task, a number of intermediate steps had to be undertaken. In this proposal, the theoretical, numerical, and experimental aspects of electromagnetic scattering from natural surfaces was considered with emphasis on remote sensing of soil moisture. In the general case, the microwave backscatter from natural surfaces is mainly influenced by three major factors: (1) the roughness statistics of the soil surface, (2) soil moisture content, and (3) soil surface cover. First the scattering problem from bare-soil surfaces was considered and a hybrid model that relates the radar backscattering coefficient to soil moisture and surface roughness was developed. This model is based on extensive experimental measurements of the radar polarimetric backscatter response of bare soil surfaces at microwave frequencies over a wide range of moisture conditions and roughness scales in conjunction with existing theoretical surface scattering models in limiting cases (small perturbation, physical optics, and geometrical optics models). Also a simple inversion algorithm capable of providing accurate estimates of soil moisture content and surface rms height from single-frequency multi-polarization radar observations was developed. The accuracy of the model and its inversion algorithm is demonstrated using independent data sets. Next the hybrid model for bare-soil surfaces is made fully polarimetric by incorporating the parameters of the co- and cross-polarized phase difference into the model. Experimental data in conjunction with numerical simulations are used to relate the soil moisture content and surface roughness to the phase difference statistics. For this purpose, a novel numerical scattering simulation for inhomogeneous dielectric random surfaces was developed. Finally the scattering problem of short vegetation cover above a rough soil surface was considered. A general scattering model for grass-blades of arbitrary cross section was developed and incorporated in a first order random media model. The vegetation model and the bare-soil model are combined and the accuracy of the combined model is evaluated against experimental observations from a wheat field over the entire growing season. A complete set of ground-truth data and polarimetric backscatter data were collected. Also an inversion algorithm for estimating soil moisture and surface roughness from multi-polarized multi-frequency observations of vegetation-covered ground is developed.
A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.
Response surface functions are often used as simple and inexpensive replacements for computationally expensive computer models that simulate the behavior of a complex system over some parameter space. Progressive response surfaces are ones that are built up progressively as global information is added from new sample points in the parameter space. As the response surfaces are globally upgraded based on new information, heuristic indications of the convergence of the response surface approximation to the exact (fitted) function can be inferred. Sampling points can be incrementally added in a structured fashion, or in an unstructured fashion. Whatever the approach, at least in early stages of sampling it is usually desirable to sample the entire parameter space uniformly. At later stages of sampling, depending on the nature of the quantity being resolved, it may be desirable to continue sampling uniformly over the entire parameter space (Progressive response surfaces), or to switch to a focusing/economizing strategy of preferentially sampling certain regions of the parameter space based on information gained in early stages of sampling (Adaptive response surfaces). Here we consider Progressive response surfaces where a balanced indication of global response over the parameter space is desired.We use a variant of Moving Least Squares to fit and interpolate structured and unstructured point sets over the parameter space. On a 2-D test problem we compare response surface accuracy for three incremental sampling methods: Progressive Lattice Sampling; Simple-Random Monte Carlo; and Halton Quasi-Monte-Carlo sequences. We are ultimately after a system for constructing efficiently upgradable response surface approximations with reliable error estimates.
The Mintz-Arakawa 2-level general circulation model has been used in a series of experiments to compute the response of the model atmosphere to: (1) a positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Pacific Ocean in summer and in winter, (2) an identical anomaly in the South Pacific Ocean in the Southern Hemisphere winter, and (3) anomalous northward and southward displacements of the Northern Hemisphere snow line over the continents. In each case computations were carried out for 90 forecast days. Results are shown in terms of the differences between anomaly and control histories. Time series of certain regional response indices, including area-average sea level pressure and 600 mb circulation indices, as well as 30-day mean sea level pressure maps are used in the analysis. Of particular interest is the evidence of significant interhemisphere influence.
In many situations, real or induced flaws such as tight cracks with known morphology cannot be manufactured in part geometry specimens or in real parts. Typically, surface fatigue cracks are manufactured in simple geometry specimens such as flat plates, dog-bone shaped flat or cylindrical specimens. If a nondestructive evaluation (NDE)technique is required to provide a reliably detectable flaw size, denoted asa90/95, for induced flaws in a part, then a direct method for qualifying the NDE procedure is to use appropriate induced flaw specimens and perform NDE procedure demonstration on the specimens. Probability of detection (POD)analysis of the empirical data may provide estimation of a90/95. This approach is described as direct POD demonstration testing, which may follow guidelines of MIL-HDBK-1823. This paper considers a case, where embedded tight cracklike induced flaws are to be detected reliably using a signal response based NDE procedure. Here, it is assumed that it is not practical to make surface or embedded induced flaw specimens in part geometry or configuration. Therefore, a direct POD demonstration testing cannot be undertaken. It is also assumed that simulation of signal response is possible for both surface and embedded induced flaws in part geometry specimens using a physics-based model. The proposed approach for NDE procedure qualification uses artificial flaws in simple geometry and part geometry specimens, and induced flaws in the same type of simple geometry specimens. Signal response data is taken on all sets of artificial and induced flaws in simple geometry and part geometry specimens. Moreover, simulated signal response data is generated for surface and embedded flaws. Thus, a case of five signal response versus flaw size datasets is considered. Three of the datasets are empirical and two datasets are physics model-based simulation datasets. A method of devising and using transfer function calculation dataset blocks to estimate the either the reliably detectable flaw size or the demonstration flaw size is provided.
A new effort geared toward modeling the physics of meteor entry and break-up is underway at NASA Ames Research Center. This is part of a broader interdisciplinary effort on providing physics-based risk assessment models for potentially hazardous objects. As part of the entry modeling task we are seeking to improve our understanding of, among other things, the ablation of meteoric material during high speed entry into earths atmosphere. Meteoroid entry differs greatly in some key respects from spacecraft entry modeling. First, the aerothermal environment at these high velocities (18 km/s) is dominated by radiation. Second, meteoroids less than, say, 50m in size, will likely lose a significant portion of their mass during the high-speed atmospheric entry process due to vaporization as well as melting and spallation. The mass of the object, in turn, directly affects the amount of energy deposited in the atmosphere, and therefore the amount of damage done. Thus it is important for us to understand and be able to model this process in greater detail in order to assess the hazard posed by these objects.In this presentation, we first give an overview of the simple ablation models that are typically used in meteor entry calculations. Additionally, we will present a new model which utilizes a similar approach to what is typically done for spacecraft TPS response modeling. This uses an equilibrium assumption near the surface to compute the ablation rate, as is done in heritage material response codes. Next we describe the radiant heating experiment which uses a high-powered laser to emulate the radiation dominated heating environment experienced by meteoroids during atmospheric entry. The facility the Laser Hardened Material Evaluation Laboratory (LHMEL) permits us to expose samples of meteoritic material to heating rates in excess of 100kW/sq.cm. An overview of the experimental set-up and test plan for the initial exploratory campaign at this facility will be given. Then we present both qualitative and quantitative results from this initial test series. Comparisons between predicted and measured ablation rates suggest that there may be significant blockage of the incident beam by the ablation plume. Furthermore, melt is shown to be a significant ablation mechanics, even at high heating rates (16 kW/sq.cm). Finally, comparisons between the phenomenology of the ablation of terrestrial rocks namely, basalt -- to that of meteorites show very different behavior. This is shown to likely be due in part to the effect of composition on the melt viscosity.
This paper is concerned with the theoretical model for short pulse scattering from a statistically random planar surface with particular application to current state of the art radar altimetry. A short review of the assumptions inherent in the convolutional model is presented. Simplified expressions are obtained for both the impulse response and the average backscattered power for near normal incidence under the assumptions common to satellite radar altimetry systems. In particular, it is shown that the conventional two-dimensional surface integration can be reduced to a closed form solution. Two applications of these results are presented relative to radar altimetry, namely, radar antenna pointing angle determination and altitude bias correction for pointing angle and surface roughness effects. It is also shown that these results have direct application to the analysis of the two frequency system proposed by Weissman, and a possible combined long pulse altimeter and two frequency system is suggested.
There exists observational and modeling evidence to the effect that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have a significant effect upon wintertime climate in the Pacific/North American sector of the hemisphere. In connection with the emergence of a more definitive observational basis for designing general circulation model (GCM) experiments to investigate the atmospheric response to equatorial SST anomalies, it was recommended to conduct a series of GCM experiments. The present study involves a series of extended (1-2 month) integrations.Attention is given to a review of previous GCM experiments, the plan for the present study, the general circulation model and its simulation of the winter and summer circulation described by Shukla et al. (1981), tropical precipitation, upper level flow, low-level circulation and temperature, and the tropical tropospheric temperature.
Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) technology is low cost, rugged, lightweight, extremely low power and can be used to develop passive wireless sensors. For these reasons, NASA is investigating the use of SAW technology for Integrated Vehicle Health Monitoring (IVHM) of aerospace structures. To facilitate rapid prototyping of passive SAW sensors for aerospace applications, SAW models have been developed. This paper reports on the comparison of three methods of modeling SAWs. The three models are the Impulse Response Method (a first order model), and two second order matrix methods; the conventional matrix approach, and a modified matrix approach that is extended to include internal finger reflections. The second order models are based upon matrices that were originally developed for analyzing microwave circuits using transmission line theory. Results from the models are presented with measured data from devices. Keywords: Surface Acoustic Wave, SAW, transmission line models, Impulse Response Method.