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At least 145 records · Page 8

Measuring and Improving the Core Resilience of Networks

The concept of k-cores is important for understanding the global structure of networks, as well as for identifying central or important nodes within a network. It is often valuable to understand the resilience of the k-cores of a network to attacks and dropped edges (i.e., damaged communications links). We provide a formal definition of a network»s core resilience, and examine the problem of characterizing core resilience in terms of the network»s structural features: in particular, which structural properties cause a network to have high or low core resilience? To measure this, we introduce two novel node properties,Core Strength andCore Influence, which measure the resilience of individual nodes» core numbers and their influence on other nodes» core numbers. Using these properties, we propose theMaximize Resilience of k-Core algorithm to add edges to improve the core resilience of a network. We consider two attack scenarios - randomly deleted edges and randomly deleted nodes. Through experiments on a variety of technological and infrastructure network datasets, we verify the efficacy of our node-based resilience measures at predicting the resilience of a network, and evaluate MRKC at the task of improving a network»s core resilience. We find that on average, for edge deletion attacks, MRKC improves the resilience of a network by 11.1% over the original network, as compared to the best baseline method, which improves the resilience of a network by only 2%. For node deletion attacks, MRKC improves the core resilience of the original network by 19.7% on average, while the best baseline improves it by only 3%.

Laishram, Ricky↗

Performance Metrics to Evaluate Utility Resilience Investments

In 2019, Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) contracted Synapse Energy Economics (Synapse) to research the integration of community and electric grid resilience investment planning as part of the Designing Resilient Communities (DRC): A Consequence-Based Approach for Grid Investment project. Synapse produced a series of reports to explore the challenges and opportunities in several key areas, including benefit-cost analysis (BCA), performance metrics, microgrids, and regulatory mechanisms. This report focuses on BCA. BCA is an approach that electric utilities, electric utility regulators, and communities can use to evaluate the costs and benefits of a wide range of grid resilience investments in a comprehensive and consistent way. While BCA is regularly applied to some types of grid investments, application of BCA to grid resilience investments is in the early stages of development. Though resilience is increasingly cited in connection with grid investment proposals and plans, the resilience- related costs and benefits of grid resilience investments are typically not fully identified, infrequently quantified, and almost never monetized. Without complete assessments of costs and benefits, regulators can be hesitant to approve some types of grid resilience investments. This report provides the first application of the framework developed in the 2020 National Standard Practice Manual for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources (NSPM for DERs) to grid resilience investments. We provide guidance on next steps for implementation to enable grid resilience investments to receive due consideration. We suggest developing BCA principles and standards for jurisdiction-specific BCA tests. We also recommend identifying the resilience impacts of the investments and quantification of these impacts by establishing utility performance metrics for resilience. Proactive integration of grid resilience investments into existing regulatory processes and practices can increase the capacity of jurisdictions to respond to and recover from the consequences of extreme events. 1 National Energy Screening Project. 2020. National Standard Practice Manual for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adapting Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate indicators and metrics for resilience, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. Given the complexity of resilience analyses and mitigation strategies, there is limited value in attempting to identify a single resilience metric, as no one metric can quantify resilience or its associated value for all stakeholders. Instead, a necessary focus of the research community should lie in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing that implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics are challenges that need to be addressed, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dedicated staff and time to researching how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools, as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Applications of Measuring and Valuing Resilience in Energy Systems

The electricity sector is vulnerable to numerous hazards that are being exacerbated by climate change, which can cause an increase in the hazards' frequency and intensity. Consumers, system regulators, system operators, and communities are now preparing to mitigate the increased risks posed by climate change. New York State's energy infrastructure resilience can be increased with targeted investments including but not limited to installing emergency backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, increasing energy efficiency, adding redundancy, investing in restoration and recovery, and hardening critical components. Such investments can reduce the likelihood, impact, and consequences of disruptive events but can also increase capital and operating costs. A barrier to prioritizing investments in resilience is that there is no widely established method for quantifying and assigning the benefits of resilience investments across various stakeholders. Decision-makers need better information detailing the value of resilience improvements. Developing methods to quantify, value, and price resilience helps meet resilience needs in an effective manner that also supports broader societal welfare. This report lays out considerations for quantifying and valuing resilience, discusses the current state of resilience valuation tools, and provides case studies of resilience projects that demonstrate how resilience attributes could be measured while highlighting broader, project-specific challenges to increasing resilience. Further, we present insights into methods and challenges to measuring, valuing, and enacting resilience investments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design

Resilience is a topic of increasing interest–with ever-present calls from policymakers to increase the resilience of complex systems and infrastructure. However, resilience as a concept can be confusing, because of a lack of a common unified definition and frame of reference. Sometimes it can appear as if resilience analysis is merely duplicating other, more mature fields such as safety, reliability, or risk, while other times it seems as if resilience is providing an “alternative” view with limited rigor. To better understand the resilience concept (and its relation to the broader field of risk management), this paper will present the perspective of simulation-based resilience analysis and design, including some of the foundational precepts and resultant concepts defining the resilience concept. It will further present the motivation for using simulation to understand resilience and highlight some ongoing work and research challenges in this area. From this frame of reference, one can better understand the field of resilience, including how different aspects and definitions of resilience relate to each other, and how resilience relates to broader design considerations and practices.

resilience↗

Foundational Concepts in Simulation-Based Resilience Analysis and Design

Resilience is a topic of increasing interest–with ever-present calls from policymakers to increase the resilience of complex systems and infrastructure. However, resilience as a concept can be confusing, because of a lack of a common unified definition and frame of reference. Sometimes it can appear as if resilience analysis is merely duplicating other, more mature fields such as safety, reliability, or risk, while other times it seems as if resilience is providing an “alternative” view with limited rigor. To better understand the resilience concept (and its relation to the broader field of risk management), this paper will present the perspective of simulation-based resilience analysis and design, including some of the foundational precepts and resultant concepts defining the resilience concept. It will further present the motivation for using simulation to understand resilience and highlight some ongoing work and research challenges in this area. From this frame of reference, one can better understand the field of resilience, including how different aspects and definitions of resilience relate to each other, and how resilience relates to broader design considerations and practices.

resilience↗

Modeling the Resilience of Nuclear Power Plant for Unexpected Reactor Trip

Resilience can be defined as the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. Resilience engineering is a relatively new paradigm for safety management that focuses on how to cope with complexity under pressure or disturbance to achieve success. A resilient system combines inherent human abilities with engineered safety features and organizational features in a controlled and flexible manner both in expected and in unexpected situations. The concept of resilience has been suggested to complement conventional safety analyses. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations: 1) they primarily focus on technical dimension, 2) the analysis are linear and sequential, 3) they are dominated by static models, 4) they do not take a systemic view into account, and 5) they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. The concept of resilience provides a more integrated view for the safety analysis in safety-critical systems, e.g., nuclear power plants. The concept of resilience in the organization of NPPs has been highlighted since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. An IAEA report addresses that a resilient organization is one that quickly realizes deviation from normal operations and has the ability to make even the toughest and least popular decisions and to manage the margins in which it can maneuver. While traditional strategy to safety in NPPs is to identify what could go or has gone wrong, the concept of resilience is focused on what the organization does well and what it does to maintain its successful operation and to capitalize on those processes in the event of an unexpected situation. This study attempts to model the resilience of NPP dynamically, based on the operating experiences in Korean NPPs. First, this study revised the characterization of NPP. Then, a survey on the literature was conducted to identify the influences between the elements in the model of resilience in NPPs. These works provide a qualitative model for the resilience in NPPs. Then, this study reviewed 168 licensee events reports submitted to the Korean regulatory body since 2004 and quantified the relation between the attributes in the model by performing a Pearson correlation analysis. Finally, a few simulations using the System Dynamics were conducted to discuss which factors are most influencing the resilience. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Determinants of cognitive and brain resilience to tau pathology: a longitudinal analysis

Mechanisms of resilience against tau pathology in individuals across the Alzheimer’s disease spectrum are insufficiently understood. Longitudinal data are necessary to reveal which factors relate to preserved cognition (i.e. cognitive resilience) and brain structure (i.e. brain resilience) despite abundant tau pathology, and to clarify whether these associations are cross-sectional or longitudinal. We used a longitudinal study design to investigate the role of several demographic, biological and brain structural factors in yielding cognitive and brain resilience to tau pathology as measured with PET. In this multicentre study, we included 366 amyloid-β-positive individuals with mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer’s disease dementia with baseline 18 F-flortaucipir-PET and longitudinal cognitive assessments. A subset (n = 200) additionally underwent longitudinal structural MRI. We used linear mixed-effects models with global cognition and cortical thickness as dependent variables to investigate determinants of cognitive resilience and brain resilience, respectively. Models assessed whether age, sex, years of education, APOE-ε4 status, intracranial volume (and cortical thickness for cognitive resilience models) modified the association of tau pathology with cognitive decline or cortical thinning. We found that the association between higher baseline tau-PET levels (quantified in a temporal meta-region of interest) and rate of cognitive decline (measured with repeated Mini-Mental State Examination) was adversely modified by older age (Stβ interaction = -0.062, P = 0.032), higher education level (Stβ interaction = -0.072, P = 0.011) and higher intracranial volume (Stβ interaction = -0.07, P = 0.016). Younger age, higher education and greater cortical thickness were associated with better cognitive performance at baseline. Greater cortical thickness was furthermore associated with slower cognitive decline independent of tau burden. Higher education also modified the negative impact of tau-PET on cortical thinning, while older age was associated with higher baseline cortical thickness and slower rate of cortical thinning independent of tau. Our analyses revealed no (cross-sectional or longitudinal) associations for sex and APOE-ε4 status on cognition and cortical thickness. In this longitudinal study of clinically impaired individuals with underlying Alzheimer’s disease neuropathological changes, we identified education as the most robust determinant of both cognitive and brain resilience against tau pathology. The observed interaction with tau burden on cognitive decline suggests that education may be protective against cognitive decline and brain atrophy at lower levels of tau pathology, with a potential depletion of resilience resources with advancing pathology. Finally, we did not find major contributions of sex to brain nor cognitive resilience, suggesting that previous links between sex and resilience might be mainly driven by cross-sectional differences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Distributed Wind Resilience Metrics for Electric Energy Delivery Systems: Comprehensive Literature Review

While most people have a general concept of what it means to be “resilient,” an examination of definitions from different sources reveals that there are key commonalities but key differences as well. The lack of a generally accepted definition and application of resilience extends to electric energy delivery systems. Without an accepted definition, it is difficult to implement programs or processes to improve resiliency. In this paper, existing work from industry, regulatory bodies, and national laboratories to define and apply resilience to electric energy delivery systems is studied to understand the key components to define resilience and better understand associated metrics. This understanding is then applied to distributed wind for a specific example of how resilience of a system is affected by the technologies and generation sources used to support it. A key finding is that there is no “one size fits all” process for resilience. Each system has a “distinctiveness” characteristic, which qualifies the possibility of differences in resilience due to different threats, geography, stakeholders, risk tolerance, and mitigations. The distinctiveness characteristic extends to distributed wind, where different configurations may lend the distributed wind to contribute to the resilience of systems in a variety of ways. The findings of this research demonstrate the need for a resilience framework that can be readily applied by stakeholders to improve resilience based on the specific system, threat, risk tolerance and stakeholders.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Systematic Review of Quantitative Resilience Measures for Water Infrastructure Systems

Over the past few decades, the concept of resilience has emerged as an important consideration in the planning and management of water infrastructure systems. Accordingly, various resilience measures have been developed for the quantitative evaluation and decision-making of systems. There are, however, numerous considerations and no clear choice of which measure, if any, provides the most appropriate representation of resilience for a given application. This study provides a critical review of quantitative approaches to measure the resilience of water infrastructure systems, with a focus on water resources and distribution systems. A compilation of 11 criteria evaluating 21 selected resilience measures addressing major features of resilience is developed using the Axiomatic Design process. Existing gaps of resilience measures are identified based on the review criteria. The results show that resilience measures have generally paid less attention to cascading damage to interrelated systems, rapid identification of failure, physical damage of system components, and time variation of resilience. Concluding the paper, improvements to resilience measures are recommended. The findings contribute to our understanding of gaps and provide information to help further improve resilience measures of water infrastructure systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Understanding Resilience Optimization Architectures With an Optimization Problem Repository

Optimizing a system’s resilience can be challenging, especially when it involves considering both the inherent resilience of a robust design and the active resilience of a health management system to a set of computationally-expensive hazard simulations. While prior work has developed specialized architectures to effectively and efficiently solve combined design and resilience optimization problems, the comparison of these architectures has been limited to a single case study. To further study resilience optimization formulations, this work develops a problem repository which includes previously-developed resilience optimization problems and additional problems presented in this work: a notional system resilience model, a pandemic response model, and a cooling tank hazard prevention model. This work then uses models in the repository at large to understand the characteristics of resilience optimization problems and study the applicability of optimization architectures and decomposition strategies. Based on the comparisons in the repository, applying an optimization architecture effectively requires understanding the alignment and coupling relationships between the design and resilience models, as well as the efficiency characteristics of the algorithms. While alignment determines the necessity of a surrogate of resilience cost in the upper-level design problem, coupling determines the overall applicability of a sequential, alternating, or bilevel structure. Additionally, the application of decomposition strategies is dependent on there being limited interactions between variable sets, which often does not hold when a resilience policy is parameterized in terms of actions to take in hazardous model states rather than specific given scenarios.

Resilience↗

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review: Preprint

Power system resilience is an emerging hot topic in recent years to study the increasing threats of extreme events such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although many research works have been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted resilience metrics and evaluation methods makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems like what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, we first review the definitions of resilience and summarized two core concepts shared by most literature. On top of that, we conduct a thorough review of resilience metrics and develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives, i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation, to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. Existing resilience metrics are summarized and categorized using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗

Resilient Solar and Storage Roadmap

Resilience to natural disasters is imperative for safe, economically productive cities. In the immediate aftermath of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster, one key element of resilience is continued operation of shelters and critical emergency management facilities. Operation of these facilities depends on reliable emergency power. Traditional emergency power systems use diesel generators with storage tanks, which provide power for only a few days in the absence of the electric or gas grid. However, a recent study has shown that gas and electric networks can require days or weeks to recover from a disaster, leaving facilities with generators at risk of running out of fuel. This has already been experienced in New York City after Hurricane Sandy where a combination of lengthy outages and high flood waters compromised the traditional diesel storage and generator backup infrastructure at hospitals and shelters. With the risk of natural disasters increasing due to climate change, we must turn to more resilient solutions for providing backup power to shelters, medical centers, and emergency operations centers. From 2015 to 2017, the City and County of San Francisco Solar and Storage for Resilience Project examined the use of microgrids and stand-alone solar electric generation with battery storage to provide resilient post-disaster power to critical facilities. The project evaluated 1,263 potential congregation and shelter sites across the city, 67 of which were identified as shelter sites with power requirements and opportunities to develop resilient infrastructure through solar and storage. Site visits were conducted for 18 of these buildings, spanning all 11 supervisor districts in San Francisco and a range of normal and emergency use types. The project team used observations from these site visits to create representative emergency power profiles for all 67 shelters in San Francisco. Using these profiles, the team found that 8.2 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic panels and 12.9 MW of battery storage would be required to provide resilient backup power for San Francisco’s shelters following a disaster. Given the high capital cost of deploying this large resource, the project team investigated various financing options — a public-private partnership was found to be a viable pathway for financing resilient solar and storage. Given the added benefit of energy cost savings in normal operation, a public-private partnership financing model would save the City and County of San Francisco 6% over a traditional design-bid-build approach over a 20-year portfolio lifetime. This roadmap documents the project’s steps of identifying critical facilities, surveying power requirements, assessing renewable potential, evaluating financing options to develop the solar and storage systems for resiliency, and modeling individual sites for solar and storage installation. This roadmap also examines the challenges critical facilities face in providing resilient power, such as key technical, political, and financing barriers, as well as the opportunities and policy recommendations to further advance resilient solar and storage development in San Francisco. While this report focuses on a detailed study of San Francisco, the methods and outcomes are applicable to any city or town.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Resilience of Adapting Networks: Results from a Stylized Infrastructure Model.

Adaptation is believed to be a source of resilience in systems. It has been difficult to measure the contribution of adaptation to resilience, unlike other resilience mechanisms such as restoration and recovery. One difficulty comes from treating adaptation as a deus ex machina that is interjected after a disruption. This provides no basis for bounding possible adaptive responses. We can bracket the possible effects of adaptation when we recognize that it occurs continuously, and is in part responsible for the current system’s properties. In this way the dynamics of the system’s pre-disruption structure provides information about post-disruption adaptive reaction. Seen as an ongoing process, adaptation has been argued to produce “robust-yet-fragile” systems. Such systems perform well under historical stresses but become committed to specific features of those stresses in a way that makes them vulnerable to system-level collapse when those features change. In effect adaptation lessens the cost of disruptions within a certain historical range, at the expense of increased cost from disruptions outside that range. Historical adaptive responses leave a signature in the structure of the system. Studies of ecological networks have suggested structural metrics that pick out systemic resilience in the underlying ecosystems. If these metrics are generally reliable indicators of resilience they provide another strategy for gaging adaptive resilience. To progress in understanding how the process of adaptation and the property of resilience interrelate in infrastructure systems, we pose some specific questions: Does adaptation confer resilience?; Does it confer resilience to novel shocks as well, or does it tune the system to fragility?; Can structural features predict resilience to novel shocks?; Are there policies or constraints on the adaptive process that improve resilience?.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Resilient Integrated Resource Planning Framework for Transmission Systems: Analysis and Optimization

This article presents a resilient Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework designed for transmission systems, with a specific focus on analyzing and optimizing responses to High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events. The framework aims to improve the resilience of transmission networks in the face of extreme events by prioritizing the assessment of events with significant consequences. Unlike traditional reliability-based planning methods that average the impact of various outage durations, this work adopts a metric based on the proximity of outage lines to generators to select HILP events. The system’s baseline resilience is evaluated by calculating load curtailment in different parts of the network resulting from HILP outage events. The transmission network is represented as an undirected graph. Graph-theoretic techniques are used to identify islands with or without generators, potentially forming segmented grids or microgrids. This article introduces Expected Load Curtailment (ELC) as a metric to quantify the system’s resilience. The framework allows for the re-evaluation of system resilience by integrating additional generating resources to achieve desired resilience levels. Optimization is performed in the re-evaluation stage to determine the optimal placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) for enhancing resilience, i.e., minimizing ELC. Case studies on the IEEE 24-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In the broader context, this resilient IRP framework aligns with energy sustainability goals by promoting robust and resilient transmission networks, as the optimal placement of DERs for resilience enhancement not only strengthens the system’s ability to withstand and recover from disruptions but also contributes to efficient resource utilization, advancing the overarching goal of energy sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Planning for a Resilient Home Electricity Supply System

Resilience of power systems is already a key issue that is getting frequent attention all over the world. It is useful to analyze resilience issues not only for bulk supply, but at all levels including at a customer level. This is because distributed energy resources can play a prominent role in enhancing resilience. Although the literature on planning models, tools and data for bulk supply and distribution systems have expanded in recent years, customer-centric planning, e.g., for an individual household, is yet to receive adequate attention. Although solar PV and battery storage at a household level have been analyzed, how these resources can be optimally combined, together with grid supply, from a resilience perspective is the focus of this study. The study demonstrates how a conceptual framework can be developed to show the trade-off between system costs and resilience including its dimensions such as duration, depth and frequency of service outages. A planning model is developed that incorporates multiple facets of resilience and individual customer preferences. The model considers power system resilience explicitly as a constraint. The model is implemented for a household level case study in Miami, Florida. The results show there are complex trade-offs among different dimensions of resilience. The study demonstrates how combined resilience metrics can be formulated and evaluated using the proposed least-cost planning model at a household level to optimize grid supply together with solar, battery storage and diesel generators. The model allows a planner to directly embed a resilience standard to drive the optimal supply mix. These concepts and the modeling construct can also be applied at other levels of planning, including community level and bulk supply system planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review

Power system resilience has been an emerging hot topic in recent years to investigate the increasing threats of extreme events, such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although much research has been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted evaluation methods and resilience metrics makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems, such as what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, first, we review the definitions of resilience, and we summarize two core concepts shared by most of the literature. Then, we develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives - i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation - to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. We conduct a thorough review of existing resilience metrics and categorize them using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗

Resilience framework and metrics for energy master planning of communities

Changes in the nature, intensity, and frequency of climate-related extreme events have imposed a higher risk of failure on energy systems, especially those at the community level. Furthermore, the evolving energy demand patterns and transition towards renewable and localised energy supply can affect energy system resilience. How can an energy system be planned and reconfigured to address these challenges without compromising the system's resilience against chronic stresses and extreme events? Unlike energy system reliability, resilience is neither a common nor an explicit consideration in energy master planning at the community level. In addition, there is no universally agreed-upon method or metrics for measuring or estimating resilience and defining mitigation strategies. This paper introduces a multi-layered energy resilience framework and set of metrics for energy master planning of communities, including the new generation of district energy systems. The potential system disturbances and their short and long-term impacts on various components of the energy system are discussed for commonly expected and extreme events. Three layers of energy resilience are discussed: engineering-designed resilience, operational resilience, and community-societal resilience. A starting set of energy resilience metrics to support engineering design and energy master planning for communities is identified. Implications for future research and practice are noted.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗