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NASA NTRS2010

Experimental Creep Life Assessment for the Advanced Stirling Convertor Heater Head

The United States Department of Energy is planning to develop the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for potential use on future space missions. The ASRG provides substantial efficiency and specific power improvements over radioisotope power systems of heritage designs. The ASRG would use General Purpose Heat Source modules as energy sources and the free-piston Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) to convert heat into electrical energy. Lockheed Martin Corporation of Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, is integrating the ASRG systems, and Sunpower, Inc., of Athens, Ohio, is designing and building the ASC. NASA Glenn Research Center of Cleveland, Ohio, manages the Sunpower contract and provides technology development in several areas for the ASC. One area is reliability assessment for the ASC heater head, a critical pressure vessel within which heat is converted into mechanical oscillation of a displacer piston. For high system efficiency, the ASC heater head operates at very high temperature (850 C) and therefore is fabricated from an advanced heat-resistant nickel-based superalloy Microcast MarM-247. Since use of MarM-247 in a thin-walled pressure vessel is atypical, much effort is required to assure that the system will operate reliably for its design life of 17 years. One life-limiting structural response for this application is creep; creep deformation is the accumulation of time-dependent inelastic strain under sustained loading over time. If allowed to progress, the deformation eventually results in creep rupture. Since creep material properties are not available in the open literature, a detailed creep life assessment of the ASC heater head effort is underway. This paper presents an overview of that creep life assessment approach, including the reliability-based creep criteria developed from coupon testing, and the associated heater head deterministic and probabilistic analyses. The approach also includes direct benchmark experimental creep assessment. This element provides high-fidelity creep testing of prototypical heater head test articles to investigate the relevant material issues and multiaxial stress state. Benchmark testing provides required data to evaluate the complex life assessment methodology and to validate that analysis. Results from current benchmark heater head tests and newly developed experimental methods are presented. In the concluding remarks, the test results are shown to compare favorably with the creep strain predictions and are the first experimental evidence for a robust ASC heater head creep life.

Krause, David L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Space flight risk data collection and analysis project: Risk and reliability database

The focus of the NASA 'Space Flight Risk Data Collection and Analysis' project was to acquire and evaluate space flight data with the express purpose of establishing a database containing measurements of specific risk assessment - reliability - availability - maintainability - supportability (RRAMS) parameters. The developed comprehensive RRAMS database will support the performance of future NASA and aerospace industry risk and reliability studies. One of the primary goals has been to acquire unprocessed information relating to the reliability and availability of launch vehicles and the subsystems and components thereof from the 45th Space Wing (formerly Eastern Space and Missile Command -ESMC) at Patrick Air Force Base. After evaluating and analyzing this information, it was encoded in terms of parameters pertinent to ascertaining reliability and availability statistics, and then assembled into an appropriate database structure.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1991

Approach to developing reliable space reactor power systems

During Phase II, the Engineering Development Phase, the SP-100 Project has defined and is pursuing a new approach to developing reliable power systems. The approach to developing such a system during the early technology phase is described along with some preliminary examples to help explain the approach. Developing reliable components to meet space reactor power system requirements is based on a top-down systems approach which includes a point design based on a detailed technical specification of a 100-kW power system. The SP-100 system requirements implicitly recognize the challenge of achieving a high system reliability for a ten-year lifetime, while at the same time using technologies that require very significant development efforts. A low-cost method for assessing reliability, based on an understanding of fundamental failure mechanisms and design margins for specific failure mechanisms, is being developed as part of the SP-100 Program.

Mondt, Jack F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Time Safety Assessment & Risk Prediction for Unmanned Aerial Systems

One of the critical challenges in emerging autonomous systems is timely mitigation of hazards encountered during operation which may not be known or accounted for at the time of design. Efficient execution of unmanned systems therefore demands a paradigm shift from scheduled periodic maintenance to predictive risk analysis that includes condition-based-monitoring, real-time reliability assessment and hazard mitigation. Particularly, the state-of-health parameters needs to be computed at the component level, unit level as well as the integrated system level. While in the former two levels, the physics of health propagation may be based on underlying electro-mechanical properties, system level prognostics often relies on data-driven models. Further, uncertainty from model, measurements and input sources should be accurately quantified to generate meaningful prediction results that can be fed into reliable decision making processes. Finally, the expected risk and time to failure has to be computed based on the current state-of-health of the overall system. This talk presents a conceptual design of such an in-time safety assurance approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating at low altitudes near and over populated areas. Typical in-flight hazard incidents include unplanned detour, proximity to obstacles, mid-flight component faults, limited battery life and poor quality of GPS measurements. Safety assessment therefore comprises trajectory generation and re-plan, battery RUL computation, distributed fault diagnostics and uncertainty management of predicted trajectory based on GPS measurement noise. The entire monitoring framework will be demonstrated on simulated as well as real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center. This tutorial will therefore guide the audience through a step-by-step tracking of an autonomous system with focus on in-time risk prediction in the presence of unforeseen hazards and uncertain environment.

diagnostics↗

NASA NTRS2008

Signal Detection Theory Applied to Helicopter Transmission Diagnostic Thresholds

Helicopter Health Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) have potential for providing data to support increasing the service life of a dynamic mechanical component in the transmission of a helicopter. Data collected can demonstrate the HUMS condition indicator responds to a specific component fault with appropriate alert limits and minimal false alarms. Defining thresholds for specific faults requires a tradeoff between the sensitivity of the condition indicator (CI) limit to indicate damage and the number of false alarms. A method using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to assess CI performance was demonstrated using CI data collected from accelerometers installed on several UH60 Black Hawk and AH64 Apache helicopters and an AH64 helicopter component test stand. Results of the analysis indicate ROC curves can be used to reliably assess the performance of commercial HUMS condition indicators to detect damaged gears and bearings in a helicopter transmission.

Dempsey, Paula J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Signal Detection Theory Applied to Helicopter Transmission Diagnostic Thresholds

Dempsey, Paula J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reliability of Ceramic Column Grid Array Interconnect Packages Under Extreme Temperatures

A paper describes advanced ceramic column grid array (CCGA) packaging interconnects technology test objects that were subjected to extreme temperature thermal cycles. CCGA interconnect electronic package printed wiring boards (PWBs) of polyimide were assembled, inspected nondestructively, and, subsequently, subjected to ex - treme-temperature thermal cycling to assess reliability for future deep-space, short- and long-term, extreme-temperature missions. The test hardware consisted of two CCGA717 packages with each package divided into four daisy-chained sections, for a total of eight daisy chains to be monitored. The package is 33 33 mm with a 27 27 array of 80%/20% Pb/Sn columns on a 1.27-mm pitch. The change in resistance of the daisy-chained CCGA interconnects was measured as a function of the increasing number of thermal cycles. Several catastrophic failures were observed after 137 extreme-temperature thermal cycles, as per electrical resistance measurements, and then the tests were continued through 1,058 thermal cycles to corroborate and understand the test results. X-ray and optical inspection have been made after thermal cycling. Optical inspections were also conducted on the CCGA vs. thermal cycles. The optical inspections were conclusive; the x-ray images were not. Process qualification and assembly is required to optimize the CCGA assembly, which is very clear from the x-rays. Six daisy chains were open out of seven daisy chains, as per experimental test data reported. The daisy chains are open during the cold cycle, and then recover during the hot cycle, though some of them also opened during the hot thermal cycle..

Ramesham, Rajeshuni↗

NASA NTRS1993

Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

Thacker, Ben H.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was, however, not to happen. Early in the Apollo program, estimates of the probability for a successful roundtrip human mission to the moon yielded disappointingly low (and suspect) values and NASA became discouraged from further performing quantitative risk analyses until some two decades later when the methods were more refined, rigorous, and repeatable. Instead, NASA decided to rely primarily on the Hazard Analysis (HA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods for system safety assessment.

Stamatelatos,Michael↗

NASA NTRS1987

Advanced probabilistic method of development

Advanced structural reliability methods are utilized on the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project to provide a tool for analysis and design of space propulsion system hardware. The role of the effort at the University of Arizona is to provide reliability technology support to this project. PSAM computer programs will provide a design tool for analyzing uncertainty associated with thermal and mechanical loading, material behavior, geometry, and the analysis methods used. Specifically, reliability methods are employed to perform sensitivity analyses, to establish the distribution of a critical response variable (e.g., stress, deflection), to perform reliability assessment, and ultimately to produce a design which will minimize cost and/or weight. Uncertainties in the design factors of space propulsion hardware are described by probability models constructed using statistical analysis of data. Statistical methods are employed to produce a probability model, i.e., a statistical synthesis or summary of each design variable in a format suitable for reliability analysis and ultimately, design decisions.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Reduction Of Sizes Of Semi-Markov Reliability Models

Trimming technique reduces computational effort by order of magnitude while introducing negligible error. Error bound depends on only three parameters from semi-Markov model: maximum sum of rates for failure transitions leaving any state, maximum average holding time for recovery-mode state, and operating time for system. Error bound computed before any model generated, enabling modeler to decide immediately whether or not model can be trimmed. Trimming procedure specified by precise and easy description, making it easy to include trimming procedure in program generating mathematical models for use in assessing reliability. Typical application of technique in design of digital control systems required to be extremely reliable. In addition to aerospace applications, fault-tolerant design has growing importance in wide range of industrial applications.

White, Allan L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Analytical Assessment of the Reciprocating Feed System

A preliminary analysis tool has been created in Microsoft Excel to determine deliverable payload mass, total system mass, and performance of spacecraft systems using various types of propellant feed systems. These mass estimates are conducted by inserting into the user interface the basic mission parameters (e.g., thrust, burn time, specific impulse, mixture ratio, etc.), system architecture (e.g., propulsion system type and characteristics, propellants, pressurization system type, etc.), and design properties (e.g., material properties, safety factors, etc.). Different propellant feed and pressurization systems are available for comparison in the program. This gives the user the ability to compare conventional pressure fed, reciprocating feed system (RFS), autogenous pressurization thrust augmentation (APTA RFS), and turbopump systems with the deliverable payload, inert mass, and total system mass being the primary comparison metrics. Analyses of several types of missions and spacecraft were conducted and it was found that the RFS offers a performance improvement, especially in terms of delivered payload, over conventional pressure fed systems. Furthermore, it is competitive with a turbopump system at low to moderate chamber pressures, up to approximately 1,500 psi. Various example cases estimating the system mass and deliverable payload of several types of spacecraft are presented that illustrate the potential system performance advantages of the RFS. In addition, a reliability assessment of the RFS was conducted, comparing it to simplified conventional pressure fed and turbopump systems, based on MIL-STD 756B; these results showed that the RFS offers higher reliability, and thus substantially longer periods between system refurbishment, than turbopump systems, and is competitive with conventional pressure fed systems. This is primarily the result of the intrinsic RFS fail-operational capability with three run tanks, since the system can operate with just two run tanks.

Eddleman, David E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Object-oriented fault tree evaluation program for quantitative analyses

Object-oriented programming can be combined with fault free techniques to give a significantly improved environment for evaluating the safety and reliability of large complex systems for space missions. Deep knowledge about system components and interactions, available from reliability studies and other sources, can be described using objects that make up a knowledge base. This knowledge base can be interrogated throughout the design process, during system testing, and during operation, and can be easily modified to reflect design changes in order to maintain a consistent information source. An object-oriented environment for reliability assessment has been developed on a Texas Instrument (TI) Explorer LISP workstation. The program, which directly evaluates system fault trees, utilizes the object-oriented extension to LISP called Flavors that is available on the Explorer. The object representation of a fault tree facilitates the storage and retrieval of information associated with each event in the tree, including tree structural information and intermediate results obtained during the tree reduction process. Reliability data associated with each basic event are stored in the fault tree objects. The object-oriented environment on the Explorer also includes a graphical tree editor which was modified to display and edit the fault trees.

Patterson-Hine, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Space Shuttle Rudder Speed Brake Actuator-A Case Study Probabilistic Fatigue Life and Reliability Analysis

The U.S. Space Shuttle fleet was originally intended to have a life of 100 flights for each vehicle, lasting over a 10-year period, with minimal scheduled maintenance or inspection. The first space shuttle flight was that of the Space Shuttle Columbia (OV-102), launched April 12, 1981. The disaster that destroyed Columbia occurred on its 28th flight, February 1, 2003, nearly 22 years after its first launch. In order to minimize risk of losing another Space Shuttle, a probabilistic life and reliability analysis was conducted for the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuators to determine the number of flights the actuators could sustain. A life and reliability assessment of the actuator gears was performed in two stages: a contact stress fatigue model and a gear tooth bending fatigue model. For the contact stress analysis, the Lundberg-Palmgren bearing life theory was expanded to include gear-surface pitting for the actuator as a system. The mission spectrum of the Space Shuttle rudder/speed brake actuator was combined into equivalent effective hinge moment loads including an actuator input preload for the contact stress fatigue and tooth bending fatigue models. Gear system reliabilities are reported for both models and their combination. Reliability of the actuator bearings was analyzed separately, based on data provided by the actuator manufacturer. As a result of the analysis, the reliability of one half of a single actuator was calculated to be 98.6 percent for 12 flights. Accordingly, each actuator was subsequently limited to 12 flights before removal from service in the Space Shuttle.

Rudder↗

NASA NTRS2001

Assessment of Stirling Technology Has Provided Critical Data Leading Toward Flight Readiness of the Stirling Converter

The NASA Glenn Research Center is supporting the development of a Stirling converter with the Department of Energy (DOE, Germantown, Maryland) for an advanced Stirling Radioisotope Power System (SRPS) to provide spacecraft onboard electric power for NASA space science missions. A key technology assessment completed by Glenn and DOE has led to the SRPS being identified as a high-efficiency power source for such deep space missions as the Europa Orbiter and the Solar Probe. In addition, the Stirling system is now being considered for unmanned Mars rovers, especially where mission profiles may exclude the use of photovoltaic power systems, such as exploration at high Martian latitudes or for missions of long duration. The SRPS efficiency of over 20 percent will reduce the required amount of radioisotope by more than a factor of 3 in comparison to current radioisotope thermoelectric generators. This significantly reduces radioisotope cost, radiological inventory, and system cost, and it provides efficient use of scarce radioisotope resources. In support of this technology assessment, Glenn conducted a series of independent evaluations and tests to determine the technology readiness of a 55-We Stirling converter developed by Stirling Technology Company (Kennewick, Washington) and DOE. Key areas evaluated by Glenn included: 1) Radiation tolerance of materials; 2) Random vibration testing of the Stirling converter in Glenn's Structural Dynamics Lab to simulate operation in the launch environment; 3) Electromagnetic interference and compatibility (EMI/EMC) of the converter operating in Glenn's EMI lab; Independent failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis, and life and reliability 4. Independent failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis, and life and reliability assessment; and 5) SRPS cost estimate. The data from these evaluations were presented to NASA Headquarters and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory mission office by a joint industry/Government team consisting of DOE, Glenn, and Lockheed Martin Astronautics. This team concluded that there are no technical reasons that would rule out using the Stirling converter for deep space missions. As a direct result of the successful testing at Glenn, the DOE/Stirling Technology Company 55-We Stirling converter has been baselined for the SRPS. Glenn is now continuing an in-house project to assist in developing the Stirling converter for readiness for space qualification and mission implementation. As part of this effort, the Stirling converter will be further characterized under launch environment random vibration testing, methods to reduce converter EMI will be developed, and an independent performance verification will be completed. Converter life assessment and permanent magnet aging characterization tasks are also underway. Substitute organic materials for the linear alternator and piston bearing coatings for use in a high-radiation environment have been identified and have now been incorporated in Stirling converters built by Stirling Technology Company for Glenn. Electromagnetic and thermal finite element analyses for the alternator are also being conducted.

Thieme, Lanny G.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Tensile failure criteria for fiber composite materials

The analysis provides insight into the failure mechanics of these materials and defines criteria which serve as tools for preliminary design material selection and for material reliability assessment. The model incorporates both dispersed and propagation type failures and includes the influence of material heterogeneity. The important effects of localized matrix damage and post-failure matrix shear stress transfer are included in the treatment. The model is used to evaluate the influence of key parameters on the failure of several commonly used fiber-matrix systems. Analyses of three possible failure modes were developed. These modes are the fiber break propagation mode, the cumulative group fracture mode, and the weakest link mode. Application of the new model to composite material systems has indicated several results which require attention in the development of reliable structural composites. Prominent among these are the size effect and the influence of fiber strength variability.

Rosen, B. W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Novel Solution-Technique Applied to a Novel WAAS Architecture

The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is non-Markovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.

Bavuso, J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Modeling a Miniaturized Scanning Electron Microscope Focusing Column - Lessons Learned in Electron Optics Simulation

This presentation discusses work done to assess the design of a focusing column in a miniaturized Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for use in-situ on the Moon-in particular for mineralogical analysis. The MSFC beam column design uses purely electrostatic fields for focusing, because of the severe constraints on mass and electrical power consumption imposed by the goals of lunar exploration and of spaceflight in general. The resolution of an SEM ultimately depends on the size of the focused spot of the scanning beam probe, for which the stated goal here is a diameter of 10 nanometers. Optical aberrations are the main challenge to this performance goal, because they blur the ideal geometrical optical image of the electron source, effectively widening the ideal spot size of the beam probe. In the present work the optical aberrations of the mini SEM focusing column were assessed using direct tracing of non-paraxial rays, as opposed to mathematical estimates of aberrations based on paraxial ray-traces. The geometrical ray-tracing employed here is completely analogous to ray-tracing as conventionally understood in the realm of photon optics, with the major difference being that in electron optics the lens is simply a smoothly varying electric field in vacuum, formed by precisely machined electrodes. Ray-tracing in this context, therefore, relies upon a model of the electrostatic field inside the focusing column to provide the mathematical description of the "lens" being traced. This work relied fundamentally on the boundary element method (BEM) for this electric field model. In carrying out this research the authors discovered that higher accuracy in the field model was essential if aberrations were to be reliably assessed using direct ray-tracing. This led to some work in testing alternative techniques for modeling the electrostatic field. Ultimately, the necessary accuracy was attained using a BEM/Fourier series hybrid approach. The presentation will give background remarks about the MSFC mini Lunar SEM concept and electron optics modeling, followed by a description of the alternate field modeling techniques that were tried, along with their incorporation into a ray-trace simulation. Next, the validation of this simulation against commercially available software will be discussed using an example lens as a test case. Then, the efficacy of aberration assessment using direct ray-tracing will be demonstrated, using this same validation case. The discussion will include practical error checks of the field solution. Finally, the ray-trace assessment of the MSFC mini Lunar SEM concept will be shown and discussed. The authors believe this presentation will be of general interest to practitioners of modeling and simulation, as well as those with a general optics background. Because electron optics and photon optics share many basic concepts (e.g., lenses, images, aberrations, etc.), the appeal of this presentation need not be restricted to just those interested in charged particle optics.

Modeling Miniaturizing Scanning↗