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At least 145 records · Page 8

Fluid – Fluid Interfacial Area and Its Impact on Relative Permeability - A Pore Network Modeling Study

Abstract Relative permeability (kr) is commonly modeled as an empirical function of phase saturation. Although current empirical models can provide a good match of one or two measured relative permeabilities using saturation alone, they are unable to predict relative permeabilities well when there is hysteresis or when physical properties such as wettability change. Further, current models often result in relative permeability discontinuities that can cause convergence and accuracy problems in simulation. To overcome these problems, recent research has modeled relative permeability as a state function of both saturation (S) and phase connectivity (X). Pore network modeling (PNM) data, however, shows small differences in relative permeability for the same S-X value when approached from a different flow direction. This paper examines the impact of one additional Minkowski parameter (Mecke and Arns, 2005), the fluid-fluid interfacial area, on relative permeability to identify if that satisfactorily explains this discrepancy. We calculate the total fluid-fluid interfacial areas (IA) during two-phase (oil/water) flow in porous media using pore network modeling. The area is calculated from PNM simulations using the areas associated with corners and throats in pore elements of different shapes. The pore network is modeled after a Bentheimer sandstone, using square, triangular, and circular pore shapes. Simulations were conducted for numerous primary drainage and imbibition cycles at a constant contact angle of 0° for the wetting phase. Simultaneous measurements of capillary pressure, relative permeability, saturation, and phase connectivity are made for each displacement. Fluid-fluid interfacial area is calculated from the PNM capillary pressure, the fluid location in the pore elements, and the pore element dimensional data. The results show that differences in the relative permeability at the same (S,X) point is explained well by differences in the fluid-fluid interfacial area (IA). That is, for a larger change in IA at these intersection points, the permeability difference is greater. That difference in relative permeability approaches zero as the difference in IA approaches zero. This confirms that relative permeability can be modeled better as a unique function of S, X, and IA. The results also show that an increase in IA restricts flow decreasing the nonwetting (oil) phase permeability. This decrease is caused by an increase in the throat area fraction compared to the corner area as the total area IA increases. The wetting phase relative permeability, however, shows the inverse trend, in that its relative permeability is greater when IA becomes larger owing to a greater fraction of the total area associated with the corners. The area IA, however, impacts the nonwetting phase relative permeability more than the wetting phase relative permeability. Corner flow improves the wetting phase relative permeability because the wetting phase is continuous there. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that relative permeability a is more sensitive to change in S than they are for IA for the case studied implying that if only two parameters are used to model relative permeability it is better to choose S and X.

Engineering↗

Limitations of reanalysis data for wind power applications

Wind energy resource estimates commonly depend on simulated wind speed profiles generated by reanalysis or weather models due to the lack of long time series measurements with sufficient coverage at relevant heights (roughly 90 m above ground). However, modeled data, including reanalyses, can be noisy and display a wide range of biases and errors, variously attributed to terrain effects, poor coverage of assimilated inputs, and model resolution. Wind generation records, if available at high temporal and geographical resolution, can provide a proxy for wind measurements and allow for evaluation of reanalyses and weather model wind time series. We use a 7-year-long data set of hourly, plant-level generation records from over 100 wind plants across Texas to evaluate two commonly used reanalysis data sets (MERRA2 and ERA5). Additionally, we use 1-year of records (2019) to evaluate an operational, high-resolution regional weather modeling product (HRRR v3). We find that across the region, and across all modeling products, the modeled representation of wind generation (i.e., wind speeds at hub heights passed through a power curve) has relatively small mean errors when aggregated daily, but that accuracy and hourly correlation have a strong diurnal sensitivity. Accuracy and correlation systematically decline through the evening and markedly improve after sunrise. These diurnal patterns persist even in the highest resolution model tested (HRRR v3). We hypothesize the nighttime decline in accuracy is mostly due to poorly represented boundary layer conditions, perhaps related to model representation of stability, while other uncertainties (such as wake effects) play a secondary role.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Optimal Power Hardware-in-the-Loop Interfacing: Applying Modern Control For Design and Verification of High-Accuracy Interfaces

Here, we develop a novel approach to designing power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) simulation interfaces that maximizes simulation bandwidth and accuracy by leveraging a modern control framework that explicitly considers objectives on accuracy and can automatically synthesize an optimal controller that meets these objectives while stabilizing the closed-loop system. The method developed improves upon common approaches to PHIL interface design that typically involve multiple design steps for manual compensation and stabilization design that can result in interfaces that are stable but have suboptimal bandwidth and accuracy. The approach developed is general and can be applied to most PHIL system configurations. The modeling framework allows for the inclusion of scaling factors and hardware-under-test current injection models that are common to practical PHIL simulations and have significant impacts on stability. We also present practical methods and metrics for verifying the absolute accuracy of PHIL simulation results without relying on relative comparisons to potentially inaccurate models or previous simulation results. We demonstrate the accuracy evaluation method and show the improved performance achievable when using the optimal PHIL interface design approach in an experimental case study involving a 100-kVA battery inverter.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Understanding the effect of density functional choice and van der Waals treatment on predicting the binding configuration, loading, and stability of amine-grafted metal organic frameworks

Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) are crystalline, three-dimensional structures with high surface areas and tunable porosities. Made from metal nodes connected by organic linkers, the exact properties of a given MOF are determined by node and linker choice. MOFs hold promise for numerous applications, including gas capture and storage. M2(4,4′-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3′-dicarboxylate)—henceforth simply M2(dobpdc), with M = Mg, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, or Zn—is regarded as one of the most promising structures for CO2 capture applications. Further modification of the MOF with diamines or tetramines can significantly boost gas species selectivity, a necessity for the ultra-dilute CO2 concentrations in the direct-air capture of CO2. There are countless potential diamines and tetramines, paving the way for a vast number of potential sorbents to be probed for CO2 adsorption properties. The number of amines and their configuration in the MOF pore are key drivers of CO2 adsorption capacity and kinetics, and so a validation of computational prediction of these quantities is required to suitably use computational methods in the discovery and screening of amine-functionalized sorbents. In this work, we study the predictive accuracy of density functional theory and related calculations on amine loading and configuration for one diamine and two tetramines. In particular, we explore the Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof (PBE) functional and its formulation for solids (PBEsol) with and without the Grimme-D2 and Grimme-D3 pairwise corrections (PBE+D2/3 and PBEsol+D2/3), two revised PBE functionals with the Grimme-D2 and Grimme-D3 pairwise corrections (RPBE+D2/3 and revPBE+D2/3), and the nonlocal van der Waals correlation (vdW-DF2) functional. We also investigate a universal graph deep learning interatomic potential’s (M3GNet) predictive accuracy for loading and configuration. These results allow us to identify a useful screening procedure for configuration prediction that has a coarse component for quick evaluation and a higher accuracy component for detailed analysis. Our general observation is that the neural network-based potential can be used as a high-level and rapid screening tool, whereas PBEsol+D3 gives a completely qualitatively predictive picture across all systems studied, and can thus be used for high accuracy motif predictions. We close by briefly exploring the predictions of relative thermal stability for the different functionals and dispersion corrections.

Chemistry↗

Machine learning for accuracy in density functional approximations

Machine learning techniques have found their way into computational chemistry as indispensable tools to accelerate atomistic simulations and materials design. In addition, machine learning approaches hold the potential to boost the predictive power of computationally efficient electronic structure methods, such as density functional theory, to chemical accuracy and to correct for fundamental errors in density functional approaches. In this paper, recent progress in applying machine learning to improve the accuracy of density functional and related approximations is reviewed. Promises and challenges in devising machine learning models transferable between different chemistries and materials classes are discussed with the help of examples applying promising models to systems far outside their training sets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improving protein tertiary structure prediction by deep learning and distance prediction in CASP14

Abstract Substantial progresses in protein structure prediction have been made by utilizing deep‐learning and residue‐residue distance prediction since CASP13. Inspired by the advances, we improve our CASP14 MULTICOM protein structure prediction system by incorporating three new components: (a) a new deep learning‐based protein inter‐residue distance predictor to improve template‐free (ab initio) tertiary structure prediction, (b) an enhanced template‐based tertiary structure prediction method, and (c) distance‐based model quality assessment methods empowered by deep learning. In the 2020 CASP14 experiment, MULTICOM predictor was ranked seventh out of 146 predictors in tertiary structure prediction and ranked third out of 136 predictors in inter‐domain structure prediction. The results demonstrate that the template‐free modeling based on deep learning and residue‐residue distance prediction can predict the correct topology for almost all template‐based modeling targets and a majority of hard targets (template‐free targets or targets whose templates cannot be recognized), which is a significant improvement over the CASP13 MULTICOM predictor. Moreover, the template‐free modeling performs better than the template‐based modeling on not only hard targets but also the targets that have homologous templates. The performance of the template‐free modeling largely depends on the accuracy of distance prediction closely related to the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The structural model quality assessment works well on targets for which enough good models can be predicted, but it may perform poorly when only a few good models are predicted for a hard target and the distribution of model quality scores is highly skewed. MULTICOM is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/MULTICOM_Human_CASP14/tree/CASP14_DeepRank3 and https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/multicom/tree/multicom_v2.0 .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Weather radar in Nepal: opportunities and challenges in a mountainous region

Extreme rainfall is one of the major causes of natural hazards in the central Himalayan region, including Nepal. The performance of strategies to manage hazards and related risks relies on the accuracy of quantitative hydrometeorological prediction. Rain gauges have traditionally been used to measure the rainfall amount. However, point measurements with limited gauge coverage cannot accurately represent spatial precipitation variability in complex topography. Weather radar have shown potential for useful information on accurate areal rainfall estimates. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) in Nepal installed their first weather radar in 2019 in the western region of the country. Two more radars will be added to the planned radar network in the near future, in the country's central and eastern regions, respectively. We highlight both the opportunities and challenges with radar installation and observation in the mountainous regions. Radar-rainfall estimates across the Himalayas can be useful to inform decision-making in a broad range of infrastructure sectors, including water, energy, construction, transportation, and agriculture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Non-intrusive reduced order modeling of natural convection in porous media using convolutional autoencoders: Comparison with linear subspace techniques

Natural convection in porous media is a highly nonlinear multiphysical problem relevant to many engineering applications (e.g., the process of CO 2 sequestration). Here, we extend and present a non-intrusive reduced order model of natural convection in porous media employing deep convolutional autoencoders for the compression and reconstruction and either radial basis function (RBF) interpolation or artificial neural networks (ANNs) for mapping parameters of partial differential equations (PDEs) on the corresponding nonlinear manifolds. To benchmark our approach, we also describe linear compression and reconstruction processes relying on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and ANNs. Further, we present comprehensive comparisons among different models through three benchmark problems. The reduced order models, linear and nonlinear approaches, are much faster than the finite element model, obtaining a maximum speed-up of 7 × 10 6 because our framework is not bound by the Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy condition; hence, it could deliver quantities of interest at any given time contrary to the finite element model. Our model’s accuracy still lies within a relative error of 7% in the worst-case scenario. We illustrate that, in specific settings, the nonlinear approach outperforms its linear counterpart and vice versa. We hypothesize that a visual comparison between principal component analysis (PCA) and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) could indicate which method will perform better prior to employing any specific compression strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tensor Hypercontraction of Cluster Perturbation Theory: Quartic Scaling Perturbation Series for the Coupled Cluster Singles and Doubles Ground-State Energies

Even though Cluster Perturbation has been shown to be a robust non-iterative alternative to Coupled Cluster Theory, it is still plagued by high order polynomial computational scaling and the storage of higher order tensors. Here we present a proof-of-concept strategy for implementing Cluster Perturbation Theory ground state energy series for the coupled cluster singles and doubles energy with N 4 computational scaling using Tensor Hypercontraction (THC). The reduction in computational scaling by two orders is achieved by decomposing two electron repulsion integrals, doubles amplitudes and multipliers, as well as selected doubles intermediates to Tensor Hypercontraction format. Using the outlined strategy, we showcase that the Tensor Hypercontraction pilot implementations retain numerical accuracy to within 1 kcal/mol relative to corresponding conventional and density fitting implementations and we empirically verify the N 4 scaling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Accelerating Embedding Potential Optimization by Reconstructing the Pseudo-Valence Electron Density

Density functional embedding theory (DFET) enables use of electronic structure methods with higher accuracy than density functional theory in a local region, with applications thus far ranging from (photo/electro)catalysis to reactions in solution. DFET partitions a large collection of atoms into smaller groups that interact via a shared embedding (interaction) potential V emb , determined via functional optimization. The optimized effective potential (OEP) process used to optimize V emb is time-consuming and becomes a computational bottleneck due to sharp, oscillating features of V emb near nuclei. Here, similar to pseudopotential theory, by reconstructing electron densities used in the OEP process from smoother pseudo-valence-only (PVO) electron densities as proxies for total densities of the full system and subsystems, we can retain accuracy in the embedded electronic structure calculations while potentially reducing the overhead of V emb construction, within the projector augmented-wave (PAW) formalism. We explore three different chemical reactions as exemplars to test PVO–DFET, namely, H 2 dissociative adsorption on a Cu(111) surface, H 2 O adsorption on a Pt(111) surface, and aqueous [Ca 2+ –SO 4 2– ] ion-pair formation. The PVO approximation works well for all three systems with minimal loss of accuracy (∼10–70 meV error relative to the original exact-derivative (ED) approach) while accelerating V emb generation for the Cu and Pt systems respectively by 20× and 5×. Given proper numerical convergence parameters, the spatial distributions of differences between PVO- and ED-based V emb outside the core regions are small, explaining the exceptional agreement between the two approaches. Finally, we anticipate that this more efficient PVO–DFET approximation will be useful whenever computation of V emb is much more expensive than subsequent embedded high-level electron correlation calculations.

approximation↗

A Quantum Monte Carlo Study of the Structural, Energetic, and Magnetic Properties of Two-Dimensional H and T Phase VSe 2

Previous works have controversially claimed near-room-temperature ferromagnetism in two-dimensional (2D) VSe 2 , with conflicting results throughout the literature. These discrepancies in magnetic properties between both phases (T and H) of 2D VSe 2 are most likely due to the structural parameters being coupled to the magnetic properties. Specifically, both phases have a close lattice match and similar total energies, which makes it difficult to determine which phase is being observed experimentally. Here, in this study, we used a combination of density functional theory, highly accurate diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC), and a surrogate Hessian line-search optimization technique to resolve the previously reported discrepancy in structural parameters and relative phase stability. With DMC accuracy, we determined the free-standing geometry of both phases and constructed a phase diagram. Our findings demonstrate the successes of the DMC method coupled with the surrogate Hessian structural optimization technique when applied to a 2D magnetic system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Experimental and theoretical study of energy transfer in a chromophore triad: What makes modeling dynamics successful?

Simulation of electronic dynamics in realistically large molecular systems is a demanding task that has not yet achieved the same level of quantitative prediction already realized for its static counterpart. This is particularly true for processes occurring beyond the Born–Oppenheimer regime. Non-adiabatic molecular dynamics (NAMD) simulations suffer from two convoluted sources of error: numerical algorithms for dynamics and electronic structure calculations. While the former has gained increasing attention, particularly addressing the validity of ad hoc methodologies, the effect of the latter remains relatively unexplored. Indeed, the required accuracy for electronic structure calculations to reach quantitative agreement with experiment in dynamics may be even more strict than that required for static simulations. In this study, we address this issue by modeling the electronic energy transfer in a donor–acceptor–donor (D–A–D) molecular light harvesting system using fewest switches surface hopping NAMD simulations. In the studied system, time-resolved experimental measurements deliver complete information on spectra and energy transfer rates. Subsequent modeling shows that the calculated electronic transition energies are “sufficiently good” to reproduce experimental spectra but produce over an order of magnitude error in simulated dynamical rates. We further perform simulations using artificially shifted energy gaps to investigate the complex relationship between transition energies and modeled dynamics to understand factors affecting non-radiative relaxation and energy transfer rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Subspace recursive Fermi-operator expansion strategies for large-scale DFT eigenvalue problems on HPC architectures

Quantum mechanical calculations for material modeling using Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) involve the solution of a nonlinear eigenvalue problem for N smallest eigenvector-eigenvalue pairs, with N proportional to the number of electrons in the material system. Here, these calculations are computationally demanding and have asymptotic cubic scaling complexity with the number of electrons. Large-scale matrix eigenvalue problems arising from the discretization of the Kohn–Sham DFT equations employing a systematically convergent basis traditionally rely on iterative orthogonal projection methods, which are shown to be computationally efficient and scalable on massively parallel computing architectures. However, as the size of the material system increases, these methods are known to incur dominant computational costs through the Rayleigh–Ritz projection step of the discretized Kohn–Sham Hamiltonian matrix and the subsequent subspace diagonalization of the projected matrix. This work explores the potential of polynomial expansion approaches based on recursive Fermi-operator expansion as an alternative to the subspace diagonalization of the projected Hamiltonian matrix to reduce the computational cost. Subsequently, we perform a detailed comparison of various recursive polynomial expansion approaches to the traditional approach of explicit diagonalization on both multi-node central processing unit and graphics processing unit architectures and assess their relative performance in terms of accuracy, computational efficiency, scaling behavior, and energy efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

On Building Predictive Digital Twin Incorporating Wave Predicting Capabilities: Case Study on UMaine Experimental Campaign - FOCAL

The response of floating wind turbines (FWT) are susceptible to stochastic wave variations. For the optimal operation of FWT, a comprehensive understanding of the phaseresolved wave dynamics and the consequential system response is crucial for real-time monitoring and control. A multi-variate, multi-step, long short term memory (MLSTM), a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) is used to capture complex system dynamics for real-time application. Results indicate that the integration of a wave prediction-reconstruction (WRP) model substantially enhances prediction accuracy by 50% on average relative to the baseline model. The improvement is consistent across various wave extremity and prediction horizons, thereby significantly broadening the scope for timely and precise predictive capabilities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Hybrid Improved Empirical Mode Decomposition and Artificial Neural Network Model for the Prediction of Critical Heat Flux (CHF)

Three Hybrid artificial neural network (ANN) models namely radial basis function (RBF), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) combined with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) are developed for CHF predictive modelling using CHF experimental databases.First, the original experimental inputs data series are decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual by EMD, whose components are divided into high, medium and low components. The performance parameters of the hybrid models indicates that the root mean square error (RMSE) are 0.8831, 0.6522, and 0.4149; the mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.6697, 0.4636, and 0.1935. The values of the R-square of the developed prediction approach utilizing EMD-RBF, EMD-GRNN, and EMD-MLP models are 0.8553, 0.9302, and 0.9818, and the index of agreement are 0.9464, 0.9700, and 0.9894., The value of the R-square and the index of agreement of the proposed models are much higher than those of the simple models .The Pearson's test results show that the association strength between the measured and the predicted values of the proposed model EMD-MLP is the strongest. These results show the following: (a) compared with other related, recent studies, the prediction accuracy of the hybrid model EMD- MLP proposed in this research is the best hybrid model; (b) the proposed hybrid model (EMD-MLP) attains superior performance compared with simple models.

Djeddou, Messaoud↗

Recent streamflow trends across permafrost basins of North America: Datasets

Climate change impacts, including changing temperatures, precipitation, and vegetation, are widely anticipated to cause major shifts to the permafrost with resulting impacts to hydro-ecosystems across the high latitudes of the globe. However, it is challenging to examine streamflow shifts in these regions owing to a paucity of data, discontinuity of records, and other issues related to data consistency and accuracy. We looked at recent changes in streamflow over 1976-2021 in watersheds affected by varying degrees of permafrost coverage to characterize trends and drivers for a range of watersheds across North America. Data sets are described in detail in the paper associated with this data set, Bennett et al. 2023, Front. Water - Water and Critical Zone, DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2023.1099660.These data contain CSV files of the streamflow, climate, and land surface characteristics for several sites located across the high latitude regions of North America. Both observed and reanalysis data products are provided. These files can be opened using Excel or a text editor, or they can be read, and analyzed in software tools such as Python or R. A brief description of the files is below, and more details can be found in the Methods section.rabpro_stats_north_select_74_55m.csv - This file describes the observed gages used in the analysis.GF31_23_metadat.csv - This file describes the 23 permafrost systems. Columns are as described in rabpro_stats_north_select_74_55m.csv above, with rabpro_id, the id used for the timeseries file mapping in GF31_23_time_series.csv.GF31_23_time_series.csv - This file contains the time series data for the stations described in GF31_23_metadat.csv.GF31_random_reaches_1583.csv - This file describes the 1583 randomly selected permafrost-dominant sites for machine learning analysis.era5_GF31_monthly_vars_random_reaches_1583.csv - This file contains the monthly ERA5 land data for the 1583 randomly selected permafrost-dominant sites.observed.zip: USGS and Hydat station data for the 74 gages analyzed in this study. Monthly, seasonal, and annual streamflow observations for minimum streamflow, mean streamflow, and maximum streamflow. Units are m3/sec. 1975-2022.streamflow_daily_GF31_infilled_1979_2022.csv - infilled daily streamflow data (infilled using GloFAS v 3.1) for 55 gages. Units are m3/sec. 1979-2022.glofas_23.zip - Glofas v3.1 file for the 23 permafrost-dominant gages in the study. Monthly, seasonal, and annual streamflow observations for minimum streamflow, mean streamflow, and maximum streamflow. Units are m3/sec. 1979-2021.glofas_1583.zip - Glofas v3.1 file for the 1583 randomly selected permafrost-dominant gages in the study. Monthly, seasonal, and annual streamflow observations for minimum streamflow, mean streamflow, and maximum streamflow. Units are m3/sec. 1979-2021.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reinforcement Learning as a Parsimonious Alternative to Prediction Cascades: A Case Study on Image Segmentation

Deep learning architectures have achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on computer vision tasks such as object detection and image segmentation. This may be attributed to the use of over-parameterized, monolithic deep learning architectures executed on large datasets. Although such large architectures lead to increased accuracy, this is usually accompanied by a larger increase in computation and memory requirements during inference. While this is a non-issue in traditional machine learning (ML) pipelines, the recent confluence of machine learning and fields like the Internet of Things (IoT) has rendered such large architectures infeasible for execution in low-resource settings. For some datasets, large monolithic pipelines may be overkill for simpler inputs. To address this problem, previous efforts have proposed decision cascades where inputs are passed through models of increasing complexity until the desired performance is achieved. However, we argue that cascaded prediction leads to sub-optimal throughput and increased computational cost due to wasteful intermediate computations. To address this, we propose PaSeR (Parsimonious Segmentation with Reinforcement Learning) a non-cascading, cost-aware learning pipeline as an efficient alternative to cascaded decision architectures. Through experimental evaluation on both real-world and standard datasets, we demonstrate that PaSeR achieves better accuracy while minimizing computational cost relative to cascaded models. Further, we introduce a new metric IoU/GigaFlop to evaluate the balance between cost and performance. On the real-world task of battery material phase segmentation, PaSeR yields 179% improvement over SOTA MatPhase model and a 196% improvement over IDK Cascades under the IoU/GigaFlop metric. We also demonstrate PaSeR’s adaptability to complementary models trained on a noisy MNIST dataset, where it outperforms all baselines on IoU/GigaFlop by an average of 44%.

Srikshan, Bharat↗

Analysis of Space-Conditioning Loads in Commercial Buildings

Space conditioning end-uses, which include heating, cooling, and ventilation, represent a significant fraction of commercial building energy use, with a wide variety of heating and cooling technology options available in the market. In the interest of improving the overall efficiency of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) technologies, governments, utilities and private sector entities have implemented a variety of market transformation policies that aim to influence consumer purchase decisions. To evaluate the costs and benefits of such programs, analysts typically postulate a hypothetical default equipment choice, and compare it to one that provides comparable service with lower energy and/or power use. The corresponding reduced operating cost provides a benefit that offsets the potential higher cost of improved efficiency. Typically, life-cycle cost or cash-flow analyses are used to quantify the net economic benefit. These analyses require the capability to assess how a given equipment design would perform across a broad range of characteristics, both of the building and of the local weather. While these assessments can be performed using customized building simulations, it is generally not practical to develop and validate detailed building simulation code to cover all the potential variations of equipment design and installation. An alternative, and somewhat simpler, approach is to solely use detailed building simulations to generate time series of heating and cooling loads in commercial buildings. These loads can then be used as input to more detailed, stand-alone engineering models that simulate HVAC system performance under different equipment designs. This approach was used to evaluate a range of high-efficiency commercial packaged air conditioner design options for the Department of Energy’s Appliance and Equipment Standards Program (DOE-EERE 2015). While there may be some loss of precision relative to full simulation, the accuracy of this approach is sufficient for practical applications of cost-benefit analysis. This report describes the development of a database of commercial building heating and cooling loads, generated using the EnergyPlus software package, a whole building energy use model supported by the Department of Energy (DOE-EERE 2020a). EnergyPlus takes as input a set of configuration files that describe the building itself (size, zoning, envelope characteristics, etc.) and the various systems within it (HVAC, lighting, water heating, etc.). This analysis uses a publicly available collection of commercial reference buildings (CRB), comprised of sixteen building types and three vintages (DOE-EERE 2020b; Deru et al 2011). Each building is simulated in eighteen different locations, covering a wide range of climatic conditions. The prototype building description files assign the type of HVAC equipment used, and capacities across climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗