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NASA NTRS1995

Growth rates and interface shapes in germanium and lead tin telluride observed in-situ, real-time in vertical Bridgman furnaces

Using the advanced technology developed to visualize the melt-solid interface in low Prandtl number materials, crystal growth rates and interface shapes have been measured in germanium and lead tin telluride semiconductors grown in vertical Bridgman furnaces. The experimental importance of using in-situ, real time observations to determine interface shapes, to measure crystal growth rates, and to improve furnace and ampoule designs is demonstrated. The interface shapes observed in-situ, in real-time were verified by quenching and mechanically induced interface demarcation, and they were also confirmed using machined models to ascertain the absence of geometric distortions. Interface shapes depended upon the interface position in the furnace insulation zone, varied with the nature of the crystal being grown, and were dependent on the extent of transition zones at the ends of the ampoule. Actual growth rates varied significantly from the constant translation rate in response to the thermophysical properties of the crystal and its melt and the thermal conditions existing in the furnace at the interface. In the elemental semiconductor germanium the observed rates of crystal growth exceeded the imposed translation rate, but in the compound semiconductor lead tin telluride the observed rates of growth were less than the translation rate. Finally, the extent of ampoule thermal loading influenced the interface positions, the shapes, and the growth rates.

Barber, P. G.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Comparison of Metallographic Cooling Rate Methods Used in Meteorites

The primary objective of this study was to test the postulate that cooling rates acquired from metal grains in chondrites are consistent with those from iron meteorites. Both types of metal occur in some Group IAB meteorites, which are mixtures of massive metal with well-developed Widmanstatten structures and chondritic inclusions with dispersed metal grains. The grains have textures and compositions similar to chondritic metal, including negligible P. The meteorites studied show little or no sign of shock reheating and textural evidence indicates that silicates and metal were mixed before Widmanstatten patterns formed during cooling. Cooling rates were obtained by comparing measured to modeled taenite grain or lamellae dimensions and central Ni contents. Modeling entails solving diffusion equations using experimental diffusion coefficients, phase relations, and bulk or local Ni and P contents, taking into account geometry, undercooling, and impingement. There is one set of parameters for grains and another, quite different set for Widmanstatten lamellae, including a factor of 30 difference in diffusion coefficients. Yet cooling rates obtained from Widmanstatten structures and metal grains in chondritic inclusions of the same meteorite are consistent; uncertainties in the best data are +/- 10 K/Ma, equivalent to a factor of 1 +/- 0.25. This agreement implies that the data and models are correct or contain fortuitously offsetting errors, which is quite unlikely. Cooling rates range from 40 K/Ma to 70 K/Ma in IAB meteorites that contain both grains and Widmanstatten structures. Rates based on grains in Ni-poor and Ni-rich meteorites lacking Widmansatten patterns expand the range from 30 K/Ma to perhaps 200 K/Ma. Cooling rates correlate with Ni content; Ni-poor meteorites have slower rates than Ni-rich ones. Evidently, IAB meteorites were radially distributed over greater than 30km in a body with a radius less than 50km. A comparison of the available Ar ages with cooling times inferred from the cooling rates suggests that the parent body cooled more slowly after the metallographic cooling rates were established.

Herpfer, Marc A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Diurnal changes in net uptake rate of nitrate are associated with changes in estimated export of carbohydrates to roots

The rate of NO3- uptake by soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merrill) roots generally declines during the night in association with progressive depletion of the nonstructural carbohydrate pool in the shoot as well as the concentration of carbohydrates in roots. To determine if NO3- uptake rate changes in response to variations in translocation rate of carbohydrates from shoot to roots per se or to carbohydrate status of the roots, the night period was interrupted with a low light level from incandescent lamps to alter the diurnal pattern of NO3- uptake by roots and export of carbohydrate from shoots of nonnodulated soybean. Depletion of NO3- from replenished, complete nutrient solutions containing 1 mM NO3- was measured by ion chromatography and rates of NO3- uptake were calculated. Changes in export of carbohydrates from shoot to roots during intervals of the night period were calculated as the differences between rates of disappearance in contents of nonstructural carbohydrates and their estimated rates of utilization in shoot respiration and growth. A positive, significant correlation occurred between changes in calculated rates of carbohydrate export from shoots and NO3- uptake rates. Conversely, there was no significant correlation between concentrations of nonstructural carbohydrates in roots and NO3- uptake rates. These results support the hypothesis that carbohydrate flux from shoot to roots has a direct role in regulation of nitrogen uptake by the whole plant.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1995

Heart rate and respiratory rhythm dynamics on ascent to high altitude

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the alterations in autonomic control of heart rate at high altitude and to test the hypothesis that hypoxaemic stress during exposure to high altitude induces non-linear, periodic heart rate oscillations, similar to those seen in heart failure and the sleep apnoea syndrome. SUBJECTS--11 healthy subjects aged 24-64. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--24 hour ambulatory electrocardiogram records obtained at baseline (1524 m) and at 4700 m. Simultaneous heart rate and respiratory dynamics during 2.5 hours of sleep by fast Fourier transform analysis of beat to beat heart rate and of an electrocardiographically derived respiration signal. RESULTS--All subjects had resting hypoxaemia at high altitude, with an average oxyhaemoglobin saturation of 81% (5%). There was no significant change in mean heart rate, but low frequency (0.01-0.05 Hz) spectral power was increased (P < 0.01) at high altitude. Time series analysis showed a complex range of non-linear sinus rhythm dynamics. Striking low frequency (0.04-0.06 Hz) heart rate oscillations were observed during sleep in eight subjects at high altitude. Analysis of the electrocardiographically derived respiration signal indicated that these heart rate oscillations correlated with low frequency respiratory oscillations. CONCLUSIONS--These data suggest (a) that increased low frequency power during high altitude exposure is not simply attributable to increased sympathetic modulation of heart rate, but relates to distinctive cardiopulmonary oscillations at approximately 0.05 Hz and (b) that the emergence of periodic heart rate oscillations at high altitude is consistent with an unstable cardiopulmonary control system that may develop on acute exposure to hypoxaemic stress.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Effects of ELDRS at Ultra-Low Dose Rates

We present results on the effects on ELDRS at dose rates of 10, 5, 1, and 0.5 mrad(Si)/s for a variety of radiation hardened and commercial devices. We observed low dose rate enhancement below 10 mrad(Si)/s in several different parts. The magnitudes of the dose rate effects vary. The TL750L, a commercial voltage regulator, showed dose rate dependence in the functional failures, with initial failures occurring after 10 krad(Si) for the parts irradiated at 0.5 mrad(Si)/s. The RH1021 showed an increase in low dose rate enhancement by 2x at 5 mrad(Si)/s relative to 8 mrad(Si)/s and high dose rate, and parametric failure after 100 krad(Si). Additionally the ELDRS-free devices, such as the LM158 and LM117, showed evidence of dose rate sensitivity in parametric degradations. Several other parts also displayed dose rate enhancement, with relatively lower degradations up to approx.15 to 20 krad(Si). The magnitudes of the dose rate enhancement will likely increase in significance at higher total dose levels.

Chen, Dakai↗

NASA NTRS2016

Titan-Like Exoplanets: Variations in Geometric Albedo and Effective Transit Height with Haze Production Rate

Extensive studies characterizing Titan present an opportunity to study the atmospheric properties of Titan-like exoplanets. Using an existing model of Titan's atmospheric haze, we computed geometric albedo spectra and effective transit height spectra for six values of the haze production rate (zero haze to twice present) over a wide range of wavelengths (0.2-2 microns). In the geometric albedo spectra, the slope in the UV-visible changes from blue to red when varying the haze production rate values from zero to twice the current Titan value. This spectral feature is the most effective way to characterize the haze production rates. Methane absorption bands in the visible-NIR compete with the absorbing haze, being more prominent for smaller haze production rates. The effective transit heights probe a region of the atmosphere where the haze and gas are optically thin and that is thus not effectively probed by the geometric albedo. The effective transit height decreases smoothly with increasing wavelength, from 376 km to 123 km at 0.2 and 2 microns, respectively. When decreasing the haze production rate, the methane absorption bands become more prominent, and the effective transit height decreases with a steeper slope with increasing wavelength. The slope of the geometric albedo in the UV-visible increases smoothly with increasing haze production rate, while the slope of the effective transit height spectra is not sensitive to the haze production rate other than showing a sharp rise when the haze production rate increases from zero. We conclude that geometric albedo spectra provide the most sensitive indicator of the haze production rate and the background Rayleigh gas. Our results suggest that important and complementary information can be obtained from the geometric albedo and motivates improvements in the technology for direct imaging of nearby exoplanets.

Geometric albedo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Reliability↗

NASA NTRS2021

Probabilistic Processing of Asynchronous Geiger-Mode Avalanche Photodiode Arrays for Background Rate Measurements

A system-level performance evaluation of Geiger-mode avalanche photodiode (GmAPD) arrays requires accurate measurement and prediction of the background rate of the device due to dark counts and other spurious detection events. Since a GmAPD detector reports only a binary value and timestamp associated with an avalanche event, dark count rates are typically measured by averaging thousands of frames to support a statistically significant measurement. For both synchronous and asynchronous detector, the Poisson distributed background rates are referenced to the time each pixel is armed. Unlike for synchronous GmAPD imagers where all the pixels are armed to an array-wide arm signal, an asynchronous pixel operates independently from its neighboring pixels; requiring the background rates to be calculated using an interarrival histogram. For both types of imagers, the background rate is typically evaluated by fitting an exponential distribution to a fixed window within a measured histogram of time intervals between detection events However, if the statistics of the background rate are insufficient – whether that is due to low population sizes, saturation, or a large dynamic range of population size across the array, the pixel, or array-wide, performance metrics may report results with varying accuracy. This paper reports on an implementation of an algorithm that evaluates GmAPD background rates based on statistical metrics rather than fixed windows. The algorithm functions by determining the appropriate integration window within the interarrival time histogram based on a per-pixel count rate set by a predetermined tolerable measurement error. The implementation of the algorithm allows us to characterize GmAPD arrays with orders of magnitude spread in background rates across the detector using common statistical parameters.

Mumolo, J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of temperature and dose rate on ion-irradiated γ-LiAlO 2 pellets

Defect accumulation and microstructural evolution during ion irradiation at elevated temperatures are governed by competing processes of defect production, driven by the dose rate, and defect recovery, controlled by diffusion, interaction, and annihilation. Here, this study investigates the effects of irradiation temperature and the dose rate on microstructural evolution, deuterium retention, and lithium volatilization in γ-LiAlO 2 pellets subjected to sequential He + and D + ion irradiation. Experiments were performed to a total fluence of 3 × 10 17 (He + + D + )/cm 2 at 623, 673, 723, and 773 K with an average He + dose rate of 7.7 × 10 −4 dpa/s, and to 2 × 10 17 (He + + D + )/cm 2 at 773 K with dose rates of 6.8 × 10 −5 , 2.9 × 10 −4 , and 7.3 × 10 −4 dpa/s. At 623 K, the microstructure was dominated by cavities and fractures with no observable precipitate formation, while small precipitates emerged at 673 K. Increasing the irradiation temperature to 723–773 K promoted the formation of larger, faceted LiAl 5 O 8 precipitates, and surface amorphization, accompanied by pronounced lithium depletion and H–D isotopic exchange. At 773 K, medium and high dose rates produced an amorphized surface layer over a crystalline subsurface containing LiAl 5 O 8 precipitates and blisters at the crystalline–amorphous interface, whereas low-dose-rate irradiation preserved surface crystallinity with cavities distributed in the matrix, around precipitates, and along grain boundaries. Precipitate morphology was anisotropic with limited size dependence on the dose rate. These results elucidate the coupled effects of temperature and the dose rate and demonstrate that sequential He + and D 2 + irradiation at 773 K reproduces key microstructural features and H isotope behavior observed in neutron-irradiated γ-LiAlO 2 at 573 K.

dose rate effects↗

DOE OSTI2025

Low Mutation Rate and Atypical Mutation Spectrum in Prasinoderma coloniale : Insights From an Early Diverging Green Lineage

Mutations are the ultimate source of genetic diversity on which natural selection and genetic drift act, playing a crucial role in evolution and long-term adaptation. At the molecular level, the spontaneous mutation rate (µ), defined as the number of mutations per base per generation, thus determines the adaptive potential of a species. Through a mutation accumulation experiment, we estimate the mutation rate and spectrum in Prasinoderma coloniale, a phytoplankton species from an early-branching lineage within the Archaeplastida, characterized by an unusually high genomic guanine-cytosine (GC) content (69.8%). We find that P. coloniale has a very low total mutation rate of µ = 2.00 × 10 -10 . The insertion–deletion mutation rate is almost 5 times lesser than the single nucleotide mutation rate with µ ID = 3.40 × 10 -11 and µ SNM = 1.62 × 10 -10 . Prasinoderma coloniale also exhibits an atypical mutational spectrum: While essentially all other eukaryotes show a bias toward GC to AT mutations, no evidence of this AT-bias is observed in P. coloniale. Since cytosine methylation is known to be mutagenic, we hypothesized that this may result from an absence of C-methylation. Surprisingly, we found high levels of C-methylation (14% in 5mC, 25% in 5mCG contexts). Methylated cytosines did not show increased mutation rates compared with unmethylated ones, not supporting the prevailing notion that C-methylation universally leads to higher mutation rates. Overall, P. coloniale combines a GC-rich genome with a low mutation rate and original mutation spectrum, suggesting the almost universal AT-bias may not have been present in the ancestor of the green lineage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pulse-by-pulse transient thermal deformation in crystal optics under high-repetition-rate FEL

Time-domain modeling of the thermal deformation of crystal optics can help define acceptable operational ranges across the pulse-energy repetition-rate phase space. In this paper, we have studied the transient thermal deformation of a water-cooled diamond crystal for a cavity-based X-ray free-electron laser (CBXFEL), either an X-ray free-electron laser oscillator (XFELO) or a regenerative amplifier X-ray free-electron laser (RAFEL), by numerical simulations including finite-element analysis and advanced data processing. Pulse-by-pulse transient thermal deformation of a 50 µm-thick diamond crystal has been performed with X-ray pulse repetition rates between 50 kHz and 1 MHz. Results for temperature and thermal deformation have been compared with the results of transient analysis using a continuous wave (CW) power loading. Temperature and thermal deformation results from pulse-by-pulse transient analysis vary with time about the results for the CW case for the same average power. The variation amplitude increases with pulse energy and decreases with repetition rate. When the repetition rate increases to infinity, both temperature and thermal deformation converge to the results for the CW case. Two critical time scales for the operation of crystal optics in a CBXFEL are (1) first-turn time, i.e. the time for the XFEL pulse to complete the first turn around the cavity so that the crystal sees the recirculated XFEL pulse, and (2) period-end time, i.e. the time that the next electron bunch arrives for the amplification, so that the crystal outcouples the amplified FEL power. For the same average power, simulation results show that the crystal thermal deformation seen by the XFEL beam decreases with repetition rate at the first-turn time of a 300 m-long cavity and increases with repetition rate at the period-end time. For the wavefront preservation requirement of the crystal optics, a pulse-energy versus repetition-rate phase space has been established. The upper bounds of the pulse energy at both first-turn and period-end times decreases with repetition rate, especially at the period-end time. The upper bound of the thermal deformation of the crystal at the period-end time for any repetition frequency can be estimated from the CW case. For a water-cooled diamond crystal of dimension 5 mm × 5 mm × 0.05 mm, the time to reach a quasi steady-state is about 50 ms for temperature and 50 µs for thermal deformation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strain-rate hardening enhances fatigue resistance of AlSi10Mg alloy at 350°C

The high cycle fatigue behavior of laser powder bed fusion processed AlSi10Mg has been investigated at 350 °C (T/T m ∼ 0.7). The alloy exhibited a fatigue strength of 30 MPa defined by runout after 10 7 cycles at a conventional loading frequency of 20 Hz, corresponding to a notable fatigue strength to ultimate tensile strength ratio of 0.73. The surprising fatigue resistance was attributed to the strain-rate hardening effect at high fatigue loading frequency relative to tensile loading rates at 350 °C. The strain-rate hardening effect was validated by performing ultrasonic fatigue tests (20 kHz loading frequency) with three orders of magnitude higher strain-rates than those at conventional loading frequency. The higher strain-rates in ultrasonic fatigue increased the magnitude of strain-rate hardening resulting in longer AlSi10Mg fatigue lives compared to fatigue at conventional frequency, thus confirming the strain-rate hardening effect. The fatigue crack initiation mechanism was strain-rate dependent. Post-mortem microstructural examination revealed intergranular cavitation inside clusters of fine equiaxed grains. The cavities interlinked with each other to initiate near-surface fatigue cracks at conventional frequency. Cavitation occurred to a lesser extent at the ultrasonic frequency. As a result, fatigue cracks initiated at pre-existing processing defects near the surface in ultrasonic fatigue samples. Finally, this investigation underscores the role of fine grain clusters in promoting high-temperature fatigue crack initiation and indicates a possible trade-off between printability via grain refinement and high-temperature fatigue resistance of additively manufactured alloys.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent hardness measurements spanning eleven decades of strain rate on a single material surface

A comprehensive understanding of material strength across strain rates typically requires the combination of results from different methods, which often vary in loading conditions and/or sampled volumes, leading to discrepancies in material behavior. This study presents a microindentation approach to measure hardness covering eleven orders of magnitude in strain rate, from quasi-static to phonon drag-dominated rates, on a single material surface under uniform testing conditions. By engineering the geometry of impactors used in laser induced particle impact testing, we extend the breadth of accessible strain rates, including multiple distinct rates exceeding 10⁵ s⁻¹. This self-consistent approach provides clearer insights into high-rate deformation mechanisms. Our results demonstrate a gradual increase in hardness with strain rate from quasi-static up to ultra-high rates, where a sharp upturn in hardness is observed.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

The rate of extreme coronal line emitting galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and their relation to tidal disruption events

High-ionization iron coronal lines (CLs) are a rare phenomenon observed in galaxy and quasi-stellar object spectra that are thought to be created by high-energy emission from active galactic nuclei and certain types of transients. In cases known as extreme coronal line emitting galaxies (ECLEs), these CLs are strong and fade away on a time-scale of years. The most likely progenitors of these variable CLs are tidal disruption events (TDEs), which produce sufficient high-energy emission to create and sustain the CLs over these time-scales. To test the possible connection between ECLEs and TDEs, we present the most complete variable ECLE rate calculation to date and compare the results to TDE rates from the literature. To achieve this, we search for ECLEs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We detect sufficiently strong CLs in 16 galaxies, more than doubling the number previously found in SDSS. Using follow-up spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer mid-infrared observations, and Liverpool Telescope optical photometry, we find that none of the nine new ECLEs evolve in a manner consistent with that of the five previously discovered variable ECLEs. Using this sample of five variable ECLEs, we calculate the galaxy-normalized rate of variable ECLEs in SDSS to be $R_\mathrm{G}=3.6~^{+2.6}_{-1.8}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+5.1}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-6}~\mathrm{galaxy}^{-1}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. The mass-normalized rate is $R_\mathrm{M}=3.1~^{+2.3}_{-1.5}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+4.4}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-17}~\mathrm{M_\odot ^{-1}}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ and the volumetric rate is $R_\mathrm{V}=7~^{+20}_{-5}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+10}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-9}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. Our rates are one to two orders of magnitude lower than TDE rates from the literature, which suggests that only 10–40 per cent of all TDEs produce variable ECLEs. Additional uncertainties in the rates arising from the structure of the interstellar medium have yet to be included.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The rate of extreme coronal line emitters in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey LOWZ sample

Extreme coronal line emitters (ECLEs) are a rare class of galaxy that exhibit strong, high-ionization iron coronal emission lines in their spectra. In some cases, these lines are transient and may be the result of tidal disruption event (TDEs). To test this connection, we calculate the rate of variable ECLEs (vECLEs) at redshift $\sim 0.3$. We search for ECLEs in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) LOWZ sample and discover two candidate ECLEs. Using follow-up spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph, and mid-infrared observations from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, we determine that one of these galaxies is a vECLE. Using this galaxy, we calculate the galaxy-normalized vECLE rate at redshift $\sim 0.3$ to be $R_\mathrm{G}=1.6~^{+3.8}_{-1.4}\times 10^{-6}~\mathrm{galaxy}^{-1}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$and the mass-normalized rate to be $R_\mathrm{M}=7~^{+16}_{-6}\times 10^{-18}~\mathrm{M_\odot ^{-1}}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. This is then converted to a volumetric rate of $R_\mathrm{V}=1.8~^{+4.5}_{-1.5}\times 10^{-9}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. Formally, the LOWZ vECLE rates are $2 \!-\! 4$ times lower than the rates calculated from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Legacy sample at redshift $\sim 0.1$. However, given the large uncertainties on both measurements, they are consistent with each other at $1\sigma$. Both the galaxy-normalized and volumetric rates are one to two orders of magnitude lower than TDE rates from the literature, consistent with vECLEs being caused by $5 \!-\! 20$ per cent of all TDEs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Effects of shifts in the rate of repetitive stimulation on sustained attention

The effects of shifts in the rate of presentation of repetitive neutral events (background event rate) were studied in a visual vigilance task. Four groups of subjects experienced either a high (21 events/min) or a low (6 events/min) event rate for 20 min and then experienced either the same or the alternate event rate for an additional 40 min. The temporal occurrence of critical target signals was identical for all groups, irrespective of event rate. The density of critical signals was 12 signals/20 min. By the end of the session, shifts in event rate were associated with changes in performance which resembled contrast effects found in other experimental situations in which shift paradigms were used. Relative to constant event rate control conditions, a shift from a low to a high event rate depressed the probability of signal detections, while a shift in the opposite direction enhanced the probability of signal detections.

Krulewitz, J. E.↗