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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting solid state material platforms for quantum technologies

Semiconductor materials provide a compelling platform for quantum technologies (QT). However, identifying promising material hosts among the plethora of candidates is a major challenge. Therefore, we have developed a framework for the automated discovery of semiconductor platforms for QT using material informatics and machine learning methods. Different approaches were implemented to label data for training the supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms logistic regression, decision trees, random forests and gradient boosting. We find that an empirical approach relying exclusively on findings from the literature yields a clear separation between predicted suitable and unsuitable candidates. In contrast to expectations from the literature focusing on band gap and ionic character as important properties for QT compatibility, the ML methods highlight features related to symmetry and crystal structure, including bond length, orientation and radial distribution, as influential when predicting a material as suitable for QT.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning electric vehicle driver range anxiety with an initial state of charge-oriented gradient boosting approach

This manuscript focuses on the modeling of electric vehicle (EV) driver’s range anxiety, a fear that a vehicle does not have sufficient range, or state of charge (SOC) of the battery pack, to reach its destination and would strand its occupants. Despite numerous research studies on the modeling of charging behaviors, modeling efforts to understand at what battery percentages do EV drivers charge their vehicles, and what are the associated contributing factors, are rather limited. To this end, an ensemble learning model based on gradient boosting is developed. The model sequentially fits new predictors to new residuals of the previous prediction and, then, minimizes the loss when adding the latest prediction. A total of 18 features are defined and extracted from the multisource data, which cover information on driver, vehicles, stations, traffic conditions, as well as spatial-temporal context information of the charging events. The analyzed dataset includes 4.5-year’s charging event log data from 3,096 users and 468 public charging stations in Kansas City Missouri, and the macroscopic travel demand model maintained by the metropolitan planning organization. Here, the result shows the proposed model achieved a satisfactory result with a R square value of 0.54 and root mean square error of 0.14, both better than multiple linear regression model and random forest model. To reduce range anxiety, it is suggested that the priorities of deploying new charging facilities should be given to the areas with higher daily traffic prediction, with more conservative EV users or that are further from residential areas.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning for seismic low-frequency extrapolation

The cycle-skipping problem that plagues full waveform inversion (FWI) can be at least partially mitigated if low frequencies (which encode the kinematics of wave propagation in seismic data) are recorded. However, seismic sources and receivers are band-limited, so seismic data does not generally include signals down to 0 Hz. To improve our ability to solve the seismic inverse problem, one can synthesize this missing low-frequency (LF) content from the recorded high-frequency (HF) data using machine learning (ML) models. Deep learning models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) demonstrate impressive ability to perform low frequency extrapolation. However, such models require powerful hardware (GPU machines) and careful training. We assess the extrapolation capabilities of three different ML models that do not require GPU machines, namely, random forest, Gaussian process regression and gradient boosting, on both synthetic and real data. Experimental results on two synthetic data sets (generated from a low velocity lens embedded in a homogeneous medium, and the Marmousi model) demonstrate that FWI applied to the extrapolated data consistently improves inversion accuracy relative to FWI applied to the original data sets that do not contain low frequencies. Application of low-frequency extrapolation to real data from the Northwest Shelf of Australia demonstrates that tree-based ML models such as gradient boosting can outperform CNNs in terms of both accuracy and computational cost on non-GPU architectures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Vulnerability Analysis for Cascading Failures of Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a cascading failure simulation (CFS) method and a hybrid machine learning method for vulnerability analysis of integrated power-gas systems (IPGSs). The CFS method is designed to study the propagating process of cascading failures between the two systems, generating data for machine learning with initial states randomly sampled. The proposed method considers generator and gas well ramping, transmission line and gas pipeline tripping, island issue handling and load shedding strategies. Then, a hybrid machine learning model with a combined random forest (RF) classification and regression algorithms is proposed to investigate the impact of random initial states on the vulnerability metrics of IPGSs. Extensive case studies are carried out on three test IPGSs to verify the proposed models and algorithms. Simulation results show that the proposed models and algorithms can achieve high accuracy for the vulnerability analysis of IPGSs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surface temperatures reveal the patterns of vegetation water stress and their environmental drivers across the tropical Americas

Vegetation is a key component in the global carbon cycle as it stores ~450 GtC as biomass, and removes about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, in some regions, the rate of plant carbon uptake is beginning to slow, largely because of water stress. Here, we develop a new observation-based methodology to diagnose vegetation water stress and link it to environmental drivers. We used the ratio of remotely sensed land surface to near surface atmospheric temperatures (LST/Tair) to represent vegetation water stress, and built regression tree models (random forests) to assess the relationship between LST/Tair and the main environmental drivers of surface energy fluxes in the tropical Americas. We further determined ecosystem traits associated with water stress and surface energy partitioning, pinpointed critical thresholds for water stress, and quantified changes in ecosystem carbon uptake associated with crossing these critical thresholds. Additionally, we found that the top drivers of LST/Tair, explaining over a quarter of its local variability in the study region, are (1) radiation, in 58% of the study region; (2) water supply from precipitation, in 30% of the study region; and (3) atmospheric water demand from vapor pressure deficits (VPD), in 22% of the study region. Regions in which LST/Tair variation is driven by radiation are located in regions of high aboveground biomass or at high elevations, while regions in which LST/Tair is driven by water supply from precipitation or atmospheric demand tend to have low species richness. Carbon uptake by photosynthesis can be reduced by up to 80% in water-limited regions when critical thresholds for precipitation and air dryness are exceeded simultaneously, that is, as compound events. Our results demonstrate that vegetation structure and diversity can be important for regulating surface energy and carbon fluxes over tropical regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

First Measurements of Ambient PM2.5 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and Brazzaville, Republic of Congo Using Field-calibrated Low-cost Sensors

Estimates of air pollution mortality in sub-Saharan Africa are limited by a lack of surface observations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Despite being large metropolises, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), population 14.3 million, and Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo (ROC), population 2.4 million, have no reference air pollution monitors at the time of writing. Recently, a few reference monitors have been deployed in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa, including Kampala, Uganda. A low-cost PurpleAir PM2.5 monitor was collocated next to the Kampala US Embassy BAM-1020 (Met One Beta Attenuation Monitor) starting in August 2019. Raw PurpleAir data are strongly correlated with the BAM (r(exp 2) = 0.88), but have a mean absolute error of approximately 14 μg/cu.m. Two calibration models, multiple linear regression and a random forest approach, decrease mean absolute error (MAE) from 14.3 μg/cu.m to 3.4 µg/cu.m or less and improve the the r(exp 2) from 0.88 to 0.96. Given )the similarity in climate and emissions in Kampala, we apply the collocated field correction factors to four PurpleAir sensors in Kinshasa, DRC and one in neighboring Brazzaville, ROC deployed beginning April 2018. Annual average PM2.5 for 2019 in Kinshasa is estimated at 43.5 µg/cu.m, more than 4 times higher than WHO Interim Target 1 of 10 µg/cu.m. Surface PM2.5 and aerosol optical depth were each about 40% lower during the 2020 COVID19 lockdown period compared to the same time period in 2019, which cannot be explained by changes in meteorology or wildfire emissions alone. Our results highlight the need for clean air solutions implementation in the Congo.

Celeste McFarlane↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison Study of Machine Learning Techniques to Predict Flight Energy Consumption for Advanced Air Mobility

This paper addresses the need to predict the flight energy consumption of aerial vehicles in the presence of wind using machine learning techniques. The presented work is critical to achieving sustainable and efficient operations for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and to evaluating the readiness of the ground-supporting energy infrastructure, e.g., electric grid and AAM portals. The flight energy consumption is described using the "energy per meter" (EPM) metric. We present a comparison study of influential machine learning techniques in predicting EPM using real-world flight test data. We presented new results of using the Decision Tree, Random Forest, and linear regression techniques, along with our previous results using the Recurrent Neural Network and Feed Forward Neural Network techniques. The comparison results show that the Linear Regression method outperforms other methods on the basis of the Mean Squared Error and error variance.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRS2021

Bhutan Agriculture: Developing a Crop Mask for Rice and Creating a Data Collection Protocol Utilizing Remotely Sensed Data in Bhutan

Rice cultivation in Bhutan has been increasingly threatened by deteriorating soil health and outbreaks of diseases and pests associated with the global change in climate patterns. Field surveys, which the national government of Bhutan has relied on to monitor remote agricultural lands, are becoming increasingly overwhelmed by growing threats to agricultural health. To address these concerns, NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Department of Agriculture of Bhutan, the Bhutan Foundation, and the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute of Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER) and worked to increase the government of Bhutan’s agricultural monitoring capacity. Utilizing Earth observations including Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and Planet imagery, the DEVELOP team worked with NASA SERVIR and created a sampling protocol to identify rice plantations and supplement field surveys for more efficient agriculture monitoring. The analysis focused on districts Paro, Punakha, Samtse, Sarpang, Trongsa, Zhemgang, Wangdue Phodrang, and Samdrup Jongkhar in the year 2020 during the period of transplantation (June) to harvesting of rice (November). The team provided the partners with a sampling protocol for integrating NASA Earth observations into their crop monitoring methods, as well as a crop mask for rice identification and to aid crop management. The crop mask for rice was developed using the Random Forest (RF) classifier for the eight districts of Bhutan. Visually, the random forest model has proved to be more accurate and precise than the classification and Regression Tree model. Statistically, the Random Forest model was 91.8% accurate in identifying rice in Bhutan.

Yeshey Seldon↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing automatic morphological classification of galaxies with machine learning and deep learning using Dark Energy Survey imaging

There are several supervised machine learning methods used for the application of automated morphological classification of galaxies; however, there has not yet been a clear comparison of these different methods using imaging data, or an investigation for maximizing their effectiveness. We carry out a comparison between several common machine learning methods for galaxy classification [Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), K-nearest neighbour, logistic regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Neural Networks] by using Dark Energy Survey (DES) data combined with visual classifications from the Galaxy Zoo 1 project (GZ1). Our goal is to determine the optimal machine learning methods when using imaging data for galaxy classification. We show that CNN is the most successful method of these ten methods in our study. Using a sample of ~2800 galaxies with visual classification from GZ1, we reach an accuracy of ~0.99 for the morphological classification of ellipticals and spirals. The further investigation of the galaxies that have a different ML and visual classification but with high predicted probabilities in our CNN usually reveals the incorrect classification provided by GZ1. We further find the galaxies having a low probability of being either spirals or ellipticals are visually lenticulars (S0), demonstrating that supervised learning is able to rediscover that this class of galaxy is distinct from both ellipticals and spirals. We confirm that ~2.5 percent galaxies are misclassified by GZ1 in our study. After correcting these galaxies’ labels, we improve our CNN performance to an average accuracy of over 0.99 (accuracy of 0.994 is our best result).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗
NASA NTRS2016

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗
DOE OSTI2026

Online LIBS–ML Framework for Dynamic Characterization of Heterogeneous Waste-Derived Gasification Feedstocks

LIBS−ML framework for real time feedstock characterization during continuous conveyor transport Heterogeneous waste derived feedstocks (e.g., waste coal, biomass and blends) introduce rapid variability in heating value and ash chemistry that affect gasifier operation, yet conventional laboratory characterization techniques are too slow to support proactive control. To address this gap, this study reports on an online, in situ, dynamic characterization framework that couple’s laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) with leakage safe machine learning (ML) regression to deliver real time, decision quality predictions of gasifier relevant properties. A controlled sample matrix spanning two different waste coals, two different biomasses, and engineered blends under two particle size conditions were constructed and benchmarked using standardized laboratory analyses for proximate/ultimate properties and ash composition. LIBS spectra were acquired dynamically as material flowed on a conveyor belt, using high energy 1064 nm laser ablation and shot averaging to improve repeatability and precision. Supervised regression models (multi layer perceptron (MLP) /artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR)) and an optimized weighted ensemble were trained on emission line feature sets using nested cross validation with Bayesian hyperparameter tuning and validated against an independent hold out set. The proposed LIBS−ML workflow achieves near laboratory predictive fidelity across parametric targets (including higher heating value (HHV), ash content, fixed carbon, sulfur, major ash forming oxides, and initial deformation temperature (IDT)), with the weighted ensemble providing a robust default predictor under dynamic measurement conditions. These results demonstrate a practical pathway for real time feedstock characterization that can enable feedforward adjustments and more resilient gasifier operation for variable quality waste derived fuels.

Biomass↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning predictions of high-Curie-temperature materials

Technologies that function at room temperature often require magnets with a high Curie temperature, $T$ C , and can be improved with better materials. Discovering magnetic materials with a substantial $T$ C is challenging because of the large number of candidates and the cost of fabricating and testing them. Using the two largest known datasets of experimental Curie temperatures, we develop machine-learning models to make rapid $T$ C predictions solely based on the chemical composition of a material. We train a random-forest model and a k -NN one and predict on an initial dataset of over 2500 materials and then validate the model on a new dataset containing over 3000 entries. The accuracy is compared for multiple compounds' representations (“descriptors”) and regression approaches. A random-forest model provides the most accurate predictions and is not improved by dimensionality reduction or by using more complex descriptors based on atomic properties. Further, a random-forest model trained on a combination of both datasets shows that cobalt-rich and iron-rich materials have the highest Curie temperatures for all binary and ternary compounds. An analysis of the model reveals systematic error that causes the model to over-predict low-$T$ C materials and under-predict high-$T$ C materials. For exhaustive searches to find new high-$T$ C materials, analysis of the learning rate suggests either that much more data is needed or that more efficient descriptors are necessary.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Estimation of Daily Ground–Level NO 2 Concentrations from Remote Sensing Data

The limited number of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) surface measurements calls for the development of highly accurate approaches to estimating surface NO 2 concentrations. In this study, we leverage a new satellite instrument, the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), along with other predictor variables, to estimate daily surface NO 2 concentrations over Texas in 2019. We use the deep convolutional neural network (Deep-CNN), an advanced deep learning algorithm, to obtain estimates and achieve a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.91, an index of agreement (IOA) of 0.95, and a mean absolute bias (MAB) of 1.75 ppb in surface NO 2 estimation. Additionally, we leverage a novel approach, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to describe how Deep-CNN understands each predictor variable. The SHAP results show that the Deep-CNN model has an advanced understanding of the dataset, revealing that TROPOMI closely captures levels of NO 2 . In addition, we show the superiority of our Deep-CNN model at estimating surface NO 2 over other well-known machine learning and regression models in the field, including the support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), and multiple linear regression (MLR). Although SVM and RF show strong capabilities at estimating surface NO 2 concentrations, their accuracy is inferior to that of the Deep-CNN model, ranking second and third in model accuracy in this study. The MLR, however, shows a poor ability at NO 2 estimation and ranks last among all models. Furthermore, testing the impact of sample size on model performance, we also show that, compared to other models, Deep-CNN needs more samples to trigger its strength at surface NO 2 estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORESTR: Finding, Organizing, Representing, Explaining, Summarizing, and Thinning Random forests

Random forests have become popular models used for data driven predictions. As a result, random forests are currently used or being considered for high-consequence mission applications in national security, such as the prediction of yield from optical signals and malware detection. While random forests may provide accurate predictions, the complexity of the algorithm causes a lack of interpretability. Random forests are an ensemble of regression or decision trees. Individual regression and decision trees are interpretable, but ensembles are inherently difficult to interpret due to the compilation of many models. We aim to increase the interpretability of random forests by finding patterns in the ensemble of trees that can be used to “thin” (or remove) trees. As a starting point, in this report, we develop a new distance metric for quantifying the similarity between trees based on their topologies (i.e., shapes). We base the metric on a novel distance metric for graphs that is a proper mathematical distance, is invariant to transformations, has registration between graphs, and computes topological evolutions between graphs. We use the tree distance metric to compute tree statistics such as a “mean tree” and to identify clusters of trees. We apply the developed methodology to a toy dataset and a mission relevant product inspection dataset to demonstrate how the metric can provide insight into random forests. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of the approach and ideas for future research into how the metric could be used as a thinning tool to develop less complex models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated screening of functional atomic impurities in halide perovskites using high-throughput computations and machine learning

The pressing need for novel materials that can serve rising demands in solar cell and optoelectronic technologies makes the nexus of halide perovskites, high-throughput computations, and machine learning, very promising. Ever increasing amounts of data on the structure, fundamental properties, and device performance of halide perovskites provide opportunities for learning chemical rules and design principles that make these materials attractive, and applying them across wide chemical spaces. In this work, we show that impurity properties of halide perovskites computed using density functional theory (DFT) can be combined with machine learning (ML) to deliver predictive models and quick identification of optoelectronically active impurity atoms. Our computation lead to the largest reported dataset of the formation energies and charge transition levels of Pb-site impurities in methylammonium lead halide (MAPbX 3 ) perovskites. Descriptors are defined to uniquely represent any impurity atom in any MAPbX 3 compound and mapped to the computed impurity properties using regression techniques such as Gaussian process regression, neural networks, and random forests. We use the best optimized predictive models to make predictions for hundreds of impurities across 9 MAPbX 3 compounds and create lists of dominating impurities, that is, impurities that can shift the equilibrium Fermi level in the perovskite as determined by native point defects. Finally, this accelerated screening powered by computations and machine learning can guide the identification of problematic impurities that may cause undesired recombination of charge carriers, as well as impurities that can be deliberately introduced to tune the perovskite conductivity and resulting photovoltaic absorption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗