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NASA NTRS2008

Advanced Stirling Convertor Heater Head Durability and Reliability Quantification

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has identified the high efficiency Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) as a candidate power source for long duration Science missions, such as lunar applications, Mars rovers, and deep space missions, that require reliable design lifetimes of up to 17 years. Resistance to creep deformation of the MarM-247 heater head (HH), a structurally critical component of the ASRG Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), under high temperatures (up to 850 C) is a key design driver for durability. Inherent uncertainties in the creep behavior of the thin-walled HH and the variations in the wall thickness, control temperature, and working gas pressure need to be accounted for in the life and reliability prediction. Due to the availability of very limited test data, assuring life and reliability of the HH is a challenging task. The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has adopted an integrated approach combining available uniaxial MarM-247 material behavior testing, HH benchmark testing and advanced analysis in order to demonstrate the integrity, life and reliability of the HH under expected mission conditions. The proposed paper describes analytical aspects of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches and results. The deterministic approach involves development of the creep constitutive model for the MarM-247 (akin to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory master curve model used previously for Inconel 718 (Special Metals Corporation)) and nonlinear finite element analysis to predict the mean life. The probabilistic approach includes evaluation of the effect of design variable uncertainties in material creep behavior, geometry and operating conditions on life and reliability for the expected life. The sensitivity of the uncertainties in the design variables on the HH reliability is also quantified, and guidelines to improve reliability are discussed.

Krause, David L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Solid Rocket Booster Large Main and Drogue Parachute Reliability Analysis

The parachutes on the Space Transportation System (STS) Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) are the means for decelerating the SRB and allowing it to impact the water at a nominal vertical velocity of 75 feet per second. Each SRB has one pilot, one drogue, and three main parachutes. About four minutes after SRB separation, the SRB nose cap is jettisoned, deploying the pilot parachute. The pilot chute then deploys the drogue parachute. The drogue chute provides initial deceleration and proper SRB orientation prior to frustum separation. At frustum separation, the drogue pulls the frustum from the SRB and allows the main parachutes that are mounted in the frustum to unpack and inflate. These chutes are retrieved, inspected, cleaned, repaired as needed, and returned to the flight inventory and reused. Over the course of the Shuttle Program, several improvements have been introduced to the SRB main parachutes. A major change was the replacement of the small (115 ft. diameter) main parachutes with the larger (136 ft. diameter) main parachutes. Other modifications were made to the main parachutes, main parachute support structure, and SRB frustum to eliminate failure mechanisms, improve damage tolerance, and improve deployment and inflation characteristics. This reliability analysis is limited to the examination of the SRB Large Main Parachute (LMP) and drogue parachute failure history to assess the reliability of these chutes. From the inventory analysis, 68 Large Main Parachutes were used in 651 deployments, and 7 chute failures occurred in the 651 deployments. Logistic regression was used to analyze the LMP failure history, and it showed that reliability growth has occurred over the period of use resulting in a current chute reliability of R = .9983. This result was then used to determine the reliability of the 3 LMPs on the SRB, when all must function. There are 29 drogue parachutes that were used in 244 deployments, and no in-flight failures have occurred. Since there are no observed drogue chute failures, Jeffreys Prior was used to calculate a reliability of R =.998. Based on these results, it is concluded that the LMP and drogue parachutes on the Shuttle SRB are suited to their mission and changes made over their life have improved the reliability of the parachute.

Clifford, Courtenay B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Estimating the Reliability of a Soyuz Spacecraft Mission

Once the US Space Shuttle retires in 2010, the Russian Soyuz Launcher and Soyuz Spacecraft will comprise the only means for crew transportation to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The U.S. Government and NASA have contracted for crew transportation services to the ISS with Russia. The resulting implications for the US space program including issues such as astronaut safety must be carefully considered. Are the astronauts and cosmonauts safer on the Soyuz than the Space Shuttle system? Is the Soyuz launch system more robust than the Space Shuttle? Is it safer to continue to fly the 30 year old Shuttle fleet for crew transportation and cargo resupply than the Soyuz? Should we extend the life of the Shuttle Program? How does the development of the Orion/Ares crew transportation system affect these decisions? The Soyuz launcher has been in operation for over 40 years. There have been only two loss of life incidents and two loss of mission incidents. Given that the most recent incident took place in 1983, how do we determine current reliability of the system? Do failures of unmanned Soyuz rockets impact the reliability of the currently operational man-rated launcher? Does the Soyuz exhibit characteristics that demonstrate reliability growth and how would that be reflected in future estimates of success? NASA s next manned rocket and spacecraft development project is currently underway. Though the projects ultimate goal is to return to the Moon and then to Mars, the launch vehicle and spacecraft s first mission will be for crew transportation to and from the ISS. The reliability targets are currently several times higher than the Shuttle and possibly even the Soyuz. Can these targets be compared to the reliability of the Soyuz to determine whether they are realistic and achievable? To help answer these questions this paper will explore how to estimate the reliability of the Soyuz Launcher/Spacecraft system, compare it to the Space Shuttle, and its potential impacts for the future of manned spaceflight. Specifically it will look at estimating the Loss of Mission (LOM) probability using historical data, reliability growth, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques

Lutomski, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

Safie, Fayssal↗

NASA NTRS2016

Reliability and Maintainability Analysis for the Amine Swingbed Carbon Dioxide Removal System

I have performed a reliability & maintainability analysis for the Amine Swingbed payload system. The Amine Swingbed is a carbon dioxide removal technology that has gone through 2,400 hours of International Space Station on-orbit use between 2013 and 2016. While the Amine Swingbed is currently an experimental payload system, the Amine Swingbed may be converted to system hardware. If the Amine Swingbed becomes system hardware, it will supplement the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) as the primary CO2 removal technology on the International Space Station. NASA is also considering using the Amine Swingbed as the primary carbon dioxide removal technology for future extravehicular mobility units and for the Orion, which will be used for the Asteroid Redirect and Journey to Mars missions. The qualitative component of the reliability and maintainability analysis is a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). In the FMEA, I have investigated how individual components in the Amine Swingbed may fail, and what the worst case scenario is should a failure occur. The significant failure effects are the loss of ability to remove carbon dioxide, the formation of ammonia due to chemical degradation of the amine, and loss of atmosphere because the Amine Swingbed uses the vacuum of space to regenerate the Amine Swingbed. In the quantitative component of the reliability and maintainability analysis, I have assumed a constant failure rate for both electronic and nonelectronic parts. Using this data, I have created a Poisson distribution to predict the failure rate of the Amine Swingbed as a whole. I have determined a mean time to failure for the Amine Swingbed to be approximately 1,400 hours. The observed mean time to failure for the system is between 600 and 1,200 hours. This range includes initial testing of the Amine Swingbed, as well as software faults that are understood to be non-critical. If many of the commercial parts were switched to military-grade parts, the expected mean time to failure would be 2,300 hours. Both calculated mean times to failure for the Amine Swingbed use conservative failure rate models. The observed mean time to failure for CDRA is 2,500 hours. Working on this project and for NASA in general has helped me gain insight into current aeronautics missions, reliability engineering, circuit analysis, and different cultures. Prior my internship, I did not have a lot knowledge about the work being performed at NASA. As a chemical engineer, I had not really considered working for NASA as a career path. By engaging in interactions with civil servants, contractors, and other interns, I have learned a great deal about modern challenges that NASA is addressing. My work has helped me develop a knowledge base in safety and reliability that would be difficult to find elsewhere. Prior to this internship, I had not thought about reliability engineering. Now, I have gained a skillset in performing reliability analyses, and understanding the inner workings of a large mechanical system. I have also gained experience in understanding how electrical systems work while I was analyzing the electrical components of the Amine Swingbed. I did not expect to be exposed to as many different cultures as I have while working at NASA. I am referring to both within NASA and the Houston area. NASA employs individuals with a broad range of backgrounds. It has been great to learn from individuals who have highly diverse experiences and outlooks on the world. In the Houston area, I have come across individuals from different parts of the world. Interacting with such a high number of individuals with significantly different backgrounds has helped me to grow as a person in ways that I did not expect. My time at NASA has opened a window into the field of aeronautics. After earning a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering, I plan to go to graduate school for a PhD in engineering. Prior to coming to NASA, I was not aware of the graduate Pathways program. I intend to apply for the graduate Pathways program as positions are opened up. I would like to pursue future opportunities with NASA, especially as my engineering career progresses.

Dunbar, Tyler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The optimum cost-effective test time for redundant systems with specified reliability and confidence

This paper investigates the optimum test time to determine the number of redundant units needed to achieve high reliability with high confidence. Newly designed systems often have high initial failure rates which can be reduced by testing to find failure modes and remove them by redesign. To accurately estimate the required number of redundant units, the test time must be extended to accurately determine the failure rate. If the measured failure rate is used, there is a 50% chance that the actual hardware failure rate is higher. Using the measured failure rate gives only a 50% confidence that the failure rate and number of spares are not too low. After the test, given the measured failure rate and the desired reliability, the number of spares can be determined and the confidence in the reliability computed. Instead of accepting the reliability results of a fixed duration test, it is possible to set the requirements for both the redundant reliability and the confidence level and then compute the test time needed to minimize the total cost required to achieve these requirements. The confidence that the redundant reliability is not too low is increased by using a higher than measured failure rate to increase the number of spares. The higher number of spares increases cost. Longer test time reduces the variance in the failure rate and the increase in the number of spares, so that test cost increases and spares cost decreases. The total cost is the sum of the cost of the test time and the spares. The optimum test time produces the minimum total cost for the system failure rate, mission length, and required reliability and confidence level. Longer testing is justified by reduced cost. Some examples are given.

Harry W Jones↗

NASA NTRS2014

Reliability Growth in Space Life Support Systems

A hardware system's failure rate often increases over time due to wear and aging, but not always. Some systems instead show reliability growth, a decreasing failure rate with time, due to effective failure analysis and remedial hardware upgrades. Reliability grows when failure causes are removed by improved design. A mathematical reliability growth model allows the reliability growth rate to be computed from the failure data. The space shuttle was extensively maintained, refurbished, and upgraded after each flight and it experienced significant reliability growth during its operational life. In contrast, the International Space Station (ISS) is much more difficult to maintain and upgrade and its failure rate has been constant over time. The ISS Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) reliability has slightly decreased. Failures on ISS and with the ISS CDRA continue to be a challenge.

life support↗

NASA NTRS2012

Design and Analysis of a Flexible, Reliable Deep Space Life Support System

This report describes a flexible, reliable, deep space life support system design approach that uses either storage or recycling or both together. The design goal is to provide the needed life support performance with the required ultra reliability for the minimum Equivalent System Mass (ESM). Recycling life support systems used with multiple redundancy can have sufficient reliability for deep space missions but they usually do not save mass compared to mixed storage and recycling systems. The best deep space life support system design uses water recycling with sufficient water storage to prevent loss of crew if recycling fails. Since the amount of water needed for crew survival is a small part of the total water requirement, the required amount of stored water is significantly less than the total to be consumed. Water recycling with water, oxygen, and carbon dioxide removal material storage can achieve the high reliability of full storage systems with only half the mass of full storage and with less mass than the highly redundant recycling systems needed to achieve acceptable reliability. Improved recycling systems with lower mass and higher reliability could perform better than systems using storage.

reliability↗

NASA NTRS2017

Thermal Protection for Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle: A Grand Challenge for Design Methodology and Reliability Verification

Mars Sample Return is our Grand Challenge for the coming decade. TPS (Thermal Protection System) nominal performance is not the key challenge. The main difficulty for designers is the need to verify unprecedented reliability for the entry system: current guidelines for prevention of backward contamination require that the probability of spores larger than 1 micron diameter escaping into the Earth environment be lower than 1 million for the entire system, and the allocation to TPS would be more stringent than that. For reference, the reliability allocation for Orion TPS is closer to 11000, and the demonstrated reliability for previous human Earth return systems was closer to 1100. Improving reliability by more than 3 orders of magnitude is a grand challenge indeed. The TPS community must embrace the possibility of new architectures that are focused on reliability above thermal performance and mass efficiency. MSR (Mars Sample Return) EEV (Earth Entry Vehicle) will be hit with MMOD (Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris) prior to reentry. A chute-less aero-shell design which allows for self-righting shape was baselined in prior MSR studies, with the assumption that a passive system will maximize EEV robustness. Hence the aero-shell along with the TPS has to take ground impact and not break apart. System verification will require testing to establish ablative performance and thermal failure but also testing of damage from MMOD, and structural performance at ground impact. Mission requirements will demand analysis, testing and verification that are focused on establishing reliability of the design. In this proposed talk, we will focus on the grand challenge of MSR EEV TPS and the need for innovative approaches to address challenges in modeling, testing, manufacturing and verification.

Design and Verification for Reliability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Methodology for Reliability Assessments of Arbitrary Satellite Constellations

The commercial success of small satellite development and multi-satellite missions has led to constellation missions being proposed in every sector of the market. This paradigm shift has the potential to enable more capable and cost-effective space science missions. However, these novel approaches to space missions have outstripped existing policy and analysis methods for assessing the reliability of multi-satellite missions. Mission designers and decisionmakers need new methods and standards for modeling how the reliability of constituent spacecraft elements affect the aggregate reliability of constellations across a wide range of concepts and application-specific requirements. The Space Mission Analysis Branch at NASA’s Langley Research Center has developed a methodology for simulating the on-orbit reliability of arbitrary spacecraft constellations. In this paper, the authors describe the methodology and provides examples of how it can be used to evaluate specific constellation designs. To demonstrate the flexibility of the approach, several different constellation configurations are considered, including both homogenous and heterogenous designs. Next, the authors demonstrate the ability to perform broad parameter sweeps to develop greater insight into the intrinsic reliability trends associated with constellation concepts. Finally, the authors provide tables and novel data graphics which enable decisionmakers to quickly discern the relationships between constellation sizes, topologies, replenishment strategies, and overall constellation reliability.

satellite↗

DOE OSTI2026

Facilitating Data Collection of Maintenance Events to Populate the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD)

The Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HyCReD) is a collaborative project between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the University of Maryland, and hydrogen stakeholders to improve safety and reliability for hydrogen facilities by implementing component reliability data taxonomies that support hydrogen infrastructure failure rate analysis. The project aims to quantify failure rates of hydrogen components through high-quality data collection and analysis on root causes and maintenance needed. HyCReD provides a common database for cataloging hydrogen component failures which exists for reliability research in many other mature industries [2]. The database fills a gap for the hydrogen community by providing a scientifically rigorous approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA), prognostic health management (PHM), and reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis. High level results will be aggregated and anonymized to protect company sensitive information; detailed results will be used to help address issues of hydrogen components. These advanced analytics will support accelerated deployment of hydrogen infrastructure by enabling better: design and safety of projects (safety codes and standards development), infrastructure reliability and cost (component failure rates, maintenance protocols), and component R&D needs (robust supply chain). A key to a successful HyCReD implementation is facilitating the ease of reporting and data quality in the database that can be used for analysis. Maintenance data was a previously identified gap in initial efforts to populate and validate the database taxonomies [3]. Collection of maintenance data will be instrumental in identifying failure modes and rates, identifying incipient component failures or reduced performance, cataloging best practices for maintenance routines and methods for prognostic health management, and quantifying the risk and effect of different failure modes. Several key priorities are identified for streamlined data collection to achieve quality and detailed failure data: Applicability, Ease of Use, Accessibility, and Information Security. The HyCReD team has now begun deployment of the database to several companies and groups that have signed non-disclosure agreements to facilitate the data collection of failures in industry hydrogen refueling station infrastructure. This paper will provide an update into the process of HyCReD deployment including the development of a coding guide for facility personnel to reference and ensure data quality and consistency from one station to another as well as implementation of contextually dependent data fields of system taxonomy and formatted entries to provide ease of use. The goal is to communicate the lessons learned from the roll-out to technicians and engineers in the field, and the addition of need for high level of security to protect all stakeholders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Operation at Reduced Atmospheric Pressure and Concept of Reliability Redundancy for Optimized Design of Insulation Systems

Electrified transportation is calling for insulation design criteria that is adequate to provide elevated levels of power density, power dynamics and reliability. Increasing voltage levels are expected to cause accelerated intrinsic and extrinsic aging effects which will not be easily predictable at the design stage due to a lack of suitable modeling. Designing reliable insulation systems would require finding solutions able to control accelerated aging due to an unpredictable increase of intrinsic stresses and the onset of extrinsic stresses as partial discharges. This paper proposes the concept of reliability redundancy for the insulation design of aerospace electrical asset components, which is also validated at lower-than-standard atmospheric pressure. The principle is that extrinsic-aging-free design might be achieved upon determining the aging stress or abnormal service stresses distribution and being sure that aging will not generate conditions that can incept extrinsic aging (partial discharges) during operation life. However, such information is never, in practice, fully available to insulation system designers. Hence, especially in critical applications such as electrified aircraft, aerospace, and combat ships a further level of reliability should be added to a partial-discharge-free design, which can consist of the use of corona-resistant materials and/or of life models able to consider the accelerated aging effect of partial discharges (or any other type of extrinsic-accelerated aging factor). Innovative life modeling considering both extrinsic and intrinsic aging stresses, insulating material testing to estimate model parameters, and a metric for quantifying the extent of corona (or partial discharge) resistance can lead to establishing feasibility and limit conditions for optimized or fully reliability-redundant design. It is shown in the paper that if an extrinsic-aging-free design is not feasible, and it is therefore replaced by a redundant design, a further level of reliability redundancy can be provided by effective condition monitoring plans.

Montanari, Gian Carlo↗

NASA NTRS1973

Assuring reliability program effectiveness.

An attempt is made to provide simple identification and description of techniques that have proved to be most useful either in developing a new product or in improving reliability of an established product. The first reliability task is obtaining and organizing parts failure rate data. Other tasks are parts screening, tabulation of general failure rates, preventive maintenance, prediction of new product reliability, and statistical demonstration of achieved reliability. Five principal tasks for improving reliability involve the physics of failure research, derating of internal stresses, control of external stresses, functional redundancy, and failure effects control. A final task is the training and motivation of reliability specialist engineers.

Ball, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Optimization of system reliability by the sequential unconstrained minimization technique

The reliability of a complex system was optimized by a new approach for implementing the sequential unconstrained minimization technique (SUMT) with the aid of Hooke and Jeeves pattern search and heuristic programming. Two optimization problems were considered. In the first, the system reliability was maximized subject to a nonlinear weight constraint. In the second, the weight of the system was minimized without violating the requirements of the minimal system reliability and the minimum reliability for each component. The sensitivities of the system reliability and that of the system weight to the reliability of each component were determined under optimal conditions.

Hwang, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Choosing reliability level for Shuttle-carried payloads

The paramount importance of high payload reliability is questioned in the light of payload recoverability in Spacelab and Space Shuttle experiments, and cost effectiveness through less stringent reliability requirements backed up by recovery and reflight of the experiment if necessary is considered. Ground rules and parameters for assessing reliability and recoverability in relation to mission cost effectiveness are advanced. Mission success probability (for one or several flights), experiment hardware cost, design reliability, cost of orbiting the experiment, support system reliability, and other relevant parameters are identified and discussed, and graphs of experimental total cost envelope are plotted. It is proposed that reliability and quality assurance standards be weighed against failure costs and penalties in the case of recoverable space systems.

Campbell, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Wafer level reliability for high-performance VLSI design

As very large scale integration architecture requires higher package density, reliability of these devices has approached a critical level. Previous processing techniques allowed a large window for varying reliability. However, as scaling and higher current densities push reliability to its limit, tighter control and instant feedback becomes critical. Several test structures developed to monitor reliability at the wafer level are described. For example, a test structure was developed to monitor metal integrity in seconds as opposed to weeks or months for conventional testing. Another structure monitors mobile ion contamination at critical steps in the process. Thus the reliability jeopardy can be assessed during fabrication preventing defective devices from ever being placed in the field. Most importantly, the reliability can be assessed on each wafer as opposed to an occasional sample.

Root, Bryan J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Reliability of voting in fault-tolerant software systems for small output spaces

Under a voting strategy in a fault-tolerant software system there is a difference between correctness and agreement. An independent N-version programming reliability model is proposed for treating small output spaces which distinguishes between correctness and agreement. System reliability is investigated using analytical relationships and simulation. A consensus majority voting strategy is proposed and its performance is analyzed and compared with other voting strategies. Consensus majority strategy automatically adapts the voting to different component reliability and output space cardinality characteristics. It is shown that absolute majority voting strategy provides a lower bound on the reliability provided by the consensus majority, and 2-of-n voting strategy an upper bound. If r is the cardinality of the output space it is proved the 1/r is a lower bound on the average reliability of fault-tolerant system components below which the system reliability begins to deteriorate as more versions are added.

Mcallister, David F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Software reliability studies

The longterm goal of this research is to identify or create a model for use in analyzing the reliability of flight control software. The immediate tasks addressed are the creation of data useful to the study of software reliability and production of results pertinent to software reliability through the analysis of existing reliability models and data. The completed data creation portion of this research consists of a Generic Checkout System (GCS) design document created in cooperation with NASA and Research Triangle Institute (RTI) experimenters. This will lead to design and code reviews with the resulting product being one of the versions used in the Terminal Descent Experiment being conducted by the Systems Validations Methods Branch (SVMB) of NASA/Langley. An appended paper details an investigation of the Jelinski-Moranda and Geometric models for software reliability. The models were given data from a process that they have correctly simulated and asked to make predictions about the reliability of that process. It was found that either model will usually fail to make good predictions. These problems were attributed to randomness in the data and replication of data was recommended.

Wilson, Larry W.↗