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NASA NTRS2014

Integration of Earth Remote Sensing into the NOAA/NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit

Following the occurrence of severe weather, NOAA/NWS meteorologists are tasked with performing a storm damage survey to assess the type and severity of the weather event, primarily focused with the confirmation and assessment of tornadoes. This labor‐intensive process requires meteorologists to venture into the affected area, acquire damage indicators through photos, eyewitness accounts, and other documentation, then aggregation of data in order to make a final determination of the tornado path length, width, maximum intensity, and other characteristics. Earth remote sensing from operational, polar‐orbiting satellites can support the damage assessment process by helping to identify portions of damage tracks that are difficult to access due to road limitations or time constraints by applying change detection techniques. In addition, higher resolution commercial imagery can corroborate ground‐based surveys by examining higher‐resolution commercial imagery. As part of an ongoing collaboration, NASA and NOAA are working to integrate near real‐time Earth remote sensing observations into the NOAA/NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit, a handheld application used by meteorologists in the survey process. The team has recently developed a more streamlined approach for delivering data via a web mapping service and menu interface, allowing for caching of imagery before field deployment. Near real‐time products have been developed using MODIS and VIIRS imagery and change detection for preliminary track identification, along with conduits for higher‐resolution Landsat, ASTER, and commercial imagery as they become available. In addition to tornado damage assessments, the team is also investigating the use of near real‐time imagery for identifying hail damage to vegetation, which also results in large swaths of damage, particularly in the central United States during the peak growing season months of June, July, and August. This presentation will present an overview of recent activities, challenges and successes, best practices, and opportunities for future work and collaboration.

Molthan, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1980

Evaluation and comparison of tropical analyses during DST-5 and DST-6

Data systems tests were conducted to assess the adequacy of the global data base for numerical analysis and forecasting and in the process to determine the impact of meteorological satellite data. The results of these tests indicate that the satellite data impact is model and season dependent but definitely dependent on the method of data assimilation and the numerical model used to produce the analyses or initial conditions.

Sadler, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Rocket engine propulsion 'system reliability'

A system reliability approach is discussed which is based on a quantitative assessment of both the engine system and hardware reliability during the design process. The approach makes it possible to evaluate design trades as the design matures. It is concluded that the system reliability assessment approach offers the following benefits. The uncertainty of each design variable is explicitly considered in the analysis process. The most significant design variables are ranked in order of their effect on reliability. Design trades can be assessed for reliability impact. It is concluded that the approach facilitates communication between disciplines and thus aids in concurrent engineering.

O'Hara, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mixed data/goal driven intelligent real-time assessment and control

We describe work in progress to develop model-based systems for real-time assessment and control of complex systems. Intelligent real-time processing must balance accuracy and response-time requirements to maximize expected performance. We use brief (probability) and goal (utility) information to guide construction of an approximate system model on which we then apply approximate inference procedures to yield timely, effective assessments and control decisions.

Dambrosio, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS1996

Effect of Altered Gravity Environment on Tobacco Hornworm (Manduca Sexta) Development

Metamorphosis provides a unique condition for studying the role of gravity in development. Formation of new organs in a previously existing organism requires a highly active period of turnover of amino acids and proteins, and of changes in the endocrine profile. Furthermore, metamorphosis offers the advantage of studying a self-contained biological system. The tobacco hornworm provides a suitable species to study the effect of altered gravitational environment on invertebrate development. This species has been one of the most thoroughly investigated organisms in a variety of aspects of insect biology. M. sexta pharate adults can provide significant amounts of material with which to work, thus facilitating the study of metabolic aspects of adult development. During wandering, the period immediately following cessation of larval feeding, the larva burrows into the soil to form a pupation chamber. Despite burrowing down 25 to 30 cm, the insects reorient themselves to a slightly head-up (10 +/- 1 degree) position. Since light and temperature are not factors in this process, the larvae must sense the gravity vector. In our ground-based studies we had assessed whether developing adults might be sensitive to their gravitational environment by orienting pupae in a vertical head-up position within 24 to 48 h after pupal ecdysis. Our ground-based findings formed the foundation for determining which parameters would be evaluated in developing Manduca following spaceflight. Measurements were to include: (1) extent of development by all of the insects, (2) analysis of hemolymph obtained from half of the insects postflight for ecdysteroid, amino acid, urea, ammonia and trehalose concentrations, (3) further development of the other half of the insects to adult (moths), (4) analysis of the flight muscle protein content of the adults. Based on the first flight attempt in July, 1995, we modified the BRIC hardware to accommodate the insects. Our studies after BRIC-04 showed that sealing the top and bottom lids of the canisters with an 0-ring and with vacuum grease caused the insects to stop developing because of accumulation of carbon dioxide. Even though removing both the O-rings and vacuum grease permitted normal development, there was still some increase in carbon dioxide levels. Consequently, the canisters were vented and the vents covered with gas permeable membrane.

Tischler, Marc E.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Strategy Developed for Selecting Optimal Sensors for Monitoring Engine Health

Sensor indications during rocket engine operation are the primary means of assessing engine performance and health. Effective selection and location of sensors in the operating engine environment enables accurate real-time condition monitoring and rapid engine controller response to mitigate critical fault conditions. These capabilities are crucial to ensure crew safety and mission success. Effective sensor selection also facilitates postflight condition assessment, which contributes to efficient engine maintenance and reduced operating costs. Under the Next Generation Launch Technology program, the NASA Glenn Research Center, in partnership with Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power, has developed a model-based procedure for systematically selecting an optimal sensor suite for assessing rocket engine system health. This optimization process is termed the systematic sensor selection strategy. Engine health management (EHM) systems generally employ multiple diagnostic procedures including data validation, anomaly detection, fault-isolation, and information fusion. The effectiveness of each diagnostic component is affected by the quality, availability, and compatibility of sensor data. Therefore systematic sensor selection is an enabling technology for EHM. Information in three categories is required by the systematic sensor selection strategy. The first category consists of targeted engine fault information; including the description and estimated risk-reduction factor for each identified fault. Risk-reduction factors are used to define and rank the potential merit of timely fault diagnoses. The second category is composed of candidate sensor information; including type, location, and estimated variance in normal operation. The final category includes the definition of fault scenarios characteristic of each targeted engine fault. These scenarios are defined in terms of engine model hardware parameters. Values of these parameters define engine simulations that generate expected sensor values for targeted fault scenarios. Taken together, this information provides an efficient condensation of the engineering experience and engine flow physics needed for sensor selection. The systematic sensor selection strategy is composed of three primary algorithms. The core of the selection process is a genetic algorithm that iteratively improves a defined quality measure of selected sensor suites. A merit algorithm is employed to compute the quality measure for each test sensor suite presented by the selection process. The quality measure is based on the fidelity of fault detection and the level of fault source discrimination provided by the test sensor suite. An inverse engine model, whose function is to derive hardware performance parameters from sensor data, is an integral part of the merit algorithm. The final component is a statistical evaluation algorithm that characterizes the impact of interference effects, such as control-induced sensor variation and sensor noise, on the probability of fault detection and isolation for optimal and near-optimal sensor suites.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS2003

Achieving and Validating the 1-centimeter Orbit: JASON-1 Precision Orbit Determination Using GPS, SLR, DORIS and Altimeter data

Jason-1, launched on December 7, 2001, is continuing the time series of centimeter level ocean topography observations as the follow-on to the highly successful TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) radar altimeter satellite. The precision orbit determination (POD) is a critical component to meeting the ocean topography goals of the mission. Jason-1 is no exception and has set a 1 cm radial orbit accuracy goal, which represents a factor of two improvement over what is currently being achieved for T/P. The challenge to precision orbit determination (POD) is both achieving the 1 cm radial orbit accuracy and evaluating and validating the performance of the 1 cm orbit. Fortunately, Jason-1 POD can rely on four independent tracking data types including near continuous tracking data from the dual frequency codeless BlackJack GPS receiver. In addition, to the enhanced GPS receiver, Jason-1 carries significantly improved SLR and DORIS tracking systems along with the altimeter itself. We demonstrate the 1 cm radial orbit accuracy goal has been achieved using GPS data alone in a reduced dynamic solution. It is also shown that adding SLR data to the GPS-based solutions improves the orbits even further. In order to assess the performance of these orbits it is necessary to process all of the available tracking data (GPS, SLR, DORIS and altimeter crossover differences) as either dependent or independent of the orbit solutions. It was also necessary to compute orbit solutions using various combinations of the four available tracking data in order to independently assess the orbit performance. Towards this end, we have greatly improved orbits determined solely from SLR+DORIS data by applying the reduced dynamic solution strategy. In addition, we have computed reduced dynamic orbits based on SLR, DORIS and crossover data that are a significant improvement over the SLR and DORIS based dynamic solutions. These solutions provide the best performing orbits for independent validation of the GPS-based reduced dynamic orbits.

Luthcke, Scott B.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Qualitative Analysis for Maintenance Process Assessment

In order to improve software maintenance processes, we first need to be able to characterize and assess them. These tasks must be performed in depth and with objectivity since the problems are complex. One approach is to set up a measurement-based software process improvement program specifically aimed at maintenance. However, establishing a measurement program requires that one understands the problems to be addressed by the measurement program and is able to characterize the maintenance environment and processes in order to collect suitable and cost-effective data. Also, enacting such a program and getting usable data sets takes time. A short term substitute is therefore needed. We propose in this paper a characterization process aimed specifically at maintenance and based on a general qualitative analysis methodology. This process is rigorously defined in order to be repeatable and usable by people who are not acquainted with such analysis procedures. A basic feature of our approach is that actual implemented software changes are analyzed in order to understand the flaws in the maintenance process. Guidelines are provided and a case study is shown that demonstrates the usefulness of the approach.

Brand, Lionel↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) Method for Fabricating Stiffened Cylinders

Low Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and high levels of uncertainty make it challenging to develop cost estimates of new technologies in the R&D phase. It is however essential for NASA to understand the costs and benefits associated with novel concepts, in order to prioritize research investments and evaluate the potential for technology transfer and commercialization. This paper proposes a framework to perform a cost-benefit analysis of a technology in the R&D phase. This framework was developed and used to assess the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) manufacturing process for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. The ANNST method was compared with the conventional multi-piece metallic construction and composite processes for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. Following the definition of a case study for a cryogenic tank cylinder of specified geometry, data was gathered through interviews with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), with particular focus placed on production costs and process complexity. This data served as the basis to produce process flowcharts and timelines, mass estimates, and rough order-of-magnitude cost and schedule estimates. The scalability of the results was subsequently investigated to understand the variability of the results based on tank size. Lastly, once costs and benefits were identified, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assess the relative value of these achieved benefits for potential stakeholders. These preliminary, rough order-of-magnitude results predict a 46 to 58 percent reduction in production costs and a 7-percent reduction in weight over the conventional metallic manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison. Compared to the composite manufacturing technique, these results predict cost savings of 35 to 58 percent; however, the ANNST concept was heavier. In this study, the predicted return on investment of equipment required for the ANNST method was ten cryogenic tank barrels when compared with conventional metallic manufacturing. The AHP study results revealed that decreased final cylinder mass and improved quality assurance were the most valued benefits of cylinder manufacturing methods, therefore emphasizing the relevance of the benefits achieved with the ANNST process for future projects.

Ivanco, Marie L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Satellite Soil Moisture Data Assimilation Impacts on Modeling Weather Variables and Ozone in the Southeastern US – Part 2: Sensitivity to Dry-Deposition Parameterizations

Ozone (O3) dry deposition is a major O3 sink. As a follow-up study of Huang et al. (2021), we quantify the impact of satellite soil moisture (SM) on model representations of this process when different dry-deposition parameterizations are implemented, based on which the implications for interpreting O3 air pollution levels and assessing the O3 impacts on human and ecosystem health are provided. The SM data from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission are assimilated into the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model within the NASA Land Information System framework, semicoupled with Weather Research and Forecasting model with online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) regional-scale simulations covering the southeastern US. Major changes in the modeling system used include enabling the dynamic vegetation option, adding the irrigation process, and updating the scheme for the surface exchange coefficient. Two dry-deposition schemes are implemented, i.e., the Wesely scheme and a “dynamic” scheme, in the latter of which dry-deposition parameterization is coupled with photosynthesis and vegetation dynamics. It is demonstrated that, when the dynamic scheme is applied, the simulated O3 dry-deposition velocities vd and their stomatal and cuticular portions, as well as the total O3 fluxes Ft, are larger overall; vd and Ft are 2–3 times more sensitive to the SM changes due to the data assimilation (DA). Further, through case studies at two forested sites with different soil types and hydrological regimes, we highlight that, applying the Community Land Model type of SM factor controlling stomatal resistance (i.e., β factor) scheme in replacement of the Noah-type β factor scheme reduced the v(d) sensitivity to SM changes by ∼75 % at one site, while it doubled this sensitivity at the other site. Referring to multiple evaluation datasets, which may be associated with variable extents of uncertainty, the model performance of vegetation, surface fluxes, weather, and surface O3 concentrations shows mixed responses to the DA, some of which display land cover dependency. Finally, using model-derived concentration- and flux-based policy-relevant O3 metrics as well as their matching exposure–response functions, the relative biomass/crop yield losses for several types of vegetation/crops are estimated to be within a wide range of 1 %–17 %. Their sensitivities to the model's dry-deposition scheme and the implementation of SM DA are discussed.

Min Huang↗

NASA NTRS2015

Spin Forming Aluminum Crew Module (CM) Metallic Aft Pressure Vessel Bulkhead (APVBH) - Phase II

The principal focus of this project was to assist the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) program in developing a spin forming fabrication process for manufacture of the Orion crew module (CM) aft pressure vessel bulkhead. The spin forming process will enable a single piece aluminum (Al) alloy 2219 aft bulkhead resulting in the elimination of the current multiple piece welded construction, simplify CM fabrication, and lead to an enhanced design. Phase I (NASA TM-2014-218163, (1)) of this assessment explored spin forming the single-piece CM forward pressure vessel bulkhead. The MPCV Program and Lockheed Martin (LM) recently made two critical decisions relative to the NESC Phase I work scope: (1) LM selected the spin forming process to manufacture a singlepiece aft bulkhead for the Orion CM, and (2) the aft bulkhead will be manufactured from Al 2219. Based on the Program's new emphasis related to the spin forming process, the NESC was asked to conduct a Phase II assessment to assist in the LM manufacture of the aft bulkhead and to conduct a feasibility study into spin forming the Orion CM cone. This activity was approved on June 19, 2013. Dr. Robert Piascik, NASA Technical Fellow for Materials at the Langley Research Center (LaRC), was selected to lead this assessment. The project plan was approved by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Review Board (NRB) on July 18, 2013. The primary stakeholders for this assessment are the NASA and LM MPCV Program offices. Additional benefactors are commercial launch providers developing CM concepts.

Hoffman, Eric K.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Challenges in Development of Online Visualization and Analysis Tools for Satellite Data

Over the years, various online visualization and analysis tools have been developed to facilitate satellite data access and help scientific users around the world to conduct research and develop applications (e.g., data product evaluation, what-if questions, etc.). For those who are new to satellite data products, using them can be a daunting task due to many obstacles in data processing such as data formats, complex data structures, special software packages, unfamiliar terminology, etc., especially when one is not sure whether a dataset is suitable for his/er research project. Even for experienced users, developing software for data processing and analysis can be a costly and time-consuming task. Online visualization tools can overcome many of these difficulties and allow users to focus on scientific questions. For example, Giovanni (the Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure, https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov), developed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), allows access over 1900 satellite and model variables in 82 measurement groups of 8 disciplines without downloading data and software. Main features include basic functions for data analysis and visualization, data provenance, output data in different formats (ASCII, NetCDF, GeoTIFF), and more. Over the years, ~1700 peer-reviewed publications in different disciplines have been benefited from Giovanni in research activities (e.g. initial investigation, what-if questions, product evaluation). Despite the success of online visualization and analysis tools, challenges and new opportunities still exist and more can be done with new requirements and technology. Examples are: a) how to increase the efficiency of dataset search by enhancing intuitive aspects; b) how to facilitate interdisciplinary research; c) how to provide data quality information; d) how to engage users to participate in data quality assessment; and more. NASA Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) satellite-based data products are processed at various levels ranging from Level 0 to Level 4. While most users use data products at higher levels (Level-3 and 4), products at lower levels are still important for case studies, algorithm development, ground validation, etc. In this presentation, we will use Giovanni as an example to present and discuss challenges and near-future opportunities for satellite data online visualization and analysis tools.

Liu, Zhong↗

NASA NTRS2015

Spin Forming Aluminum Crew Module (CM) Metallic Aft Pressure Vessel Bulkhead (APVBH) - Phase II

The principal focus of this project was to assist the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program in developing a spin forming fabrication process for manufacture of the Orion crew module (CM) aft pressure vessel bulkhead. The spin forming process will enable a single piece aluminum (Al) alloy 2219 aft bulkhead resulting in the elimination of the current multiple piece welded construction, simplify CM fabrication, and lead to an enhanced design. Phase I (NASA TM-2014-218163 (1)) of this assessment explored spin forming the single-piece CM forward pressure vessel bulkhead. The Orion MPCV Program and Lockheed Martin (LM) recently made two critical decisions relative to the NESC Phase I work scope: (1) LM selected the spin forming process to manufacture a single-piece aft bulkhead for the Orion CM, and (2) the aft bulkhead will be manufactured from Al 2219. Based on the Program's new emphasis related to the spin forming process, the NESC was asked to conduct a Phase II assessment to assist in the LM manufacture of the aft bulkhead and to conduct a feasibility study into spin forming the Orion CM cone. This activity was approved on June 19, 2013. Dr. Robert Piascik, NASA Technical Fellow for Materials at the Langley Research Center (LaRC), was selected to lead this assessment. The project plan was approved by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Review Board (NRB) on July 18, 2013. The primary stakeholders for this assessment were the NASA and LM MPCV Program offices. Additional benefactors are commercial launch providers developing CM concepts.

Hoffman, Eric K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning Framework Based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This paper proposes a risk-aware framework for Safe Multi-Agent Planning (SafeMAP) that unifies disparate models for multi-agent systems in a Markovian process that allows for simultaneous system health monitoring, decision making under uncertainty, and multi-agent system collaboration. As operations beyond low earth orbit mature, there is an increased need for autonomous cyber-physical systems with onboard decision making capabilities. Multi-agent cyber-physical systems in particular offer the potential of increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission capabilities for future applications such as multi-rover terrain operations, distributed satellite operations, and management of smart lunar habitats. SafeMAP utilizes physics-based models of each agent and the relevant components, probability models of the environment and component operational states, and reward models for mission-specific objectives such as scientific task completion or resource consumption. The output of SafeMAP is a set of mission plans that satisfy the mission objective under specified risk/reward constraints. A readable interpretation of each of these generated mission plans is provided as an additional output. SafeMAP has been demonstrated on a simulated case study involving a four-rover system performing surface mapping operations and science tasks. Results of this paper demonstrate SafeMAP’s ability to generate explainable mission plans that satisfy the mission objective while minimizing risk under nominal and off-nominal conditions.

Mohammad Hejase↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning framework based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Mohammad Hejase↗

NASA NTRS2003

Evaporation Loss of Light Elements as a Function of Cooling Rate: Logarithmic Law

Knowledge about the evaporation loss of light elements is important to our understanding of chondrule formation processes. The evaporative loss of light elements (such as B and Li) as a function of cooling rate is of special interest because recent investigations of the distribution of Li, Be and B in meteoritic chondrules have revealed that Li varies by 25 times, and B and Be varies by about 10 times. Therefore, if we can extrapolate and interpolate with confidence the evaporation loss of B and Li (and other light elements such as K, Na) at a wide range of cooling rates of interest based upon limited experimental data, we would be able to assess the full range of scenarios relating to chondrule formation processes. Here, we propose that evaporation loss of light elements as a function of cooling rate should obey the logarithmic law.

Xiong, Yong-Liang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗