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Constraints on cosmological models from the IRAS QDOT survey results
The results of the recent IRAS survey are used to explore constraints on the nature of the Galaxy density field. Realistic simulations of the survey made from N-body simulations of the n = -1 power-law power spectrum and the Omega = 1 CDM models show that the power-law model is basically consistent with all QDOT variance results, while the CDM model has a smaller variance than the observation at the 20/h Mpc Gaussian smoothing scale. It is concluded that the QDOT results are best explained if the power spectrum of the Galaxy density field has a slope of about -1 near a wavelength of about 100/h Mpc, while the CDM model has a slope of about 0 at that scale. The possibility of marginal non-Gaussian behavior at the 20/h Mpc scale reported by Saunders et al. (1990) is examined for gravitational instability models with Gaussian initial conditions. It is argued that the observed (delta exp 3) versus (delta exp 2) in redshift space is not what these models would predict.
Spectral Modeling of the EGRET 3EG Gamma Ray Sources Near the Galactic Plane
The third EGRET catalog lists 84 sources within 10 deg of the Galactic Plane. Five of these are well-known spin-powered pulsars, 2 and possibly 3 others are blazars, and the remaining 74 are classified as unidentified, although 6 of these are likely to be artifacts of nearby strong sources. Several of the remaining 68 unidentified sources have been noted as having positional agreement with supernovae remnants and OB associations. Others may be radio-quiet pulsars like Geminga, and still others may belong to a totally new class of sources. The question of the energy spectral distributions of these sources is an important clue to their identification. In this paper, the spectra of the sources within 10 deg of Galactic Plane are fit with three different functional forms; a single power law, two power laws, and a power law with an exponential cutoff. Where possible, the best fit is selected with statistical tests. Twelve, and possibly an additional 5 sources, are found to have spectra that are fit by a breaking power law or by the power law with exponential cutoff function.
Small-scale variations in the galactic magnetic field - The rotation measure structure function and birefringence in interstellar scintillations
The structure function of rotation measures of extragalactic sources and birefringence in interstellar scintillations are used to investigate variations in the interstellar magnetic field on length scales of about 0.01-100 pc and 10 to the 11th cm, respectively. Model structure functions are derived for the case of a power-law power spectrum of irregularities in the quantity (n(e)B), and an estimate for the structure function is computed for several regions of the sky using data on extragalactic sources. The results indicate an outer angular scale for rotation measure (RM) variations of not less than about 5 deg (a linear scale of about 9-90 pc at a distance of 0.1-1 kpc). There is also evidence for RM variations on angular scales as small as 1 arcmin, but it cannot be determined whether these are intrinsic to the source or caused by the interstellar medium. The effect of a random, Faraday-active medium on the diffraction of radio waves is derived, and an upper limit to the variations in n(e)B on a length scale of 10 to the 11th cm is obtained from available observations.
Observational Requirements for High-Fidelity Reverberation Mapping
We present a series of simulations to demonstrate that high-fidelity velocity-delay maps of the emission-line regions in active galactic nuclei can be obtained from time-resolved spectrophotometric data sets like those that will arise from the proposed Kronos satellite. While previous reverberation-mapping experiments have established the size scale R of the broad emission-line regions from the mean time delay tau = R/c between the line and continuum variations and have provided strong evidence for supermassive black holes, the detailed structure and kinematics of the broad-line region remain ambiguous and poorly constrained. Here we outline the technical improvements that will be required to successfully map broad-line regions by reverberation techniques. For typical AGN continuum light curves, characterized by power-law power spectra P (f) is proportional to f(exp -alpha) with a = -1.5 +/- 0.5, our simulations show that a small UV/optical spectrometer like Kronos will clearly distinguish between currently viable alternative kinematic models. From spectra sampled at time intervals Delta t and sustained for a total duration T(sub dur), we can reconstruct high-fidelity velocity-delay maps with velocity resolution comparable to that of the spectra, and delay resolution Delta tau approx. 2 Delta t, provided T(sub dur) exceeds the broad-line region light crossing time by at least a factor of three. Even very complicated kinematical models, such as a Keplerian flow with superimposed spiral wave pattern, are resolved in maps from our simulated Kronos datasets. Reverberation mapping with Kronos data is therefore likely deliver the first clear maps of the geometry and kinematics in the broad emission-line regions 1-100 microarcseconds from supermassive black holes.
Spectrum and Morphology of the Two Brightest Milagro Sources in the Cygnus Region: MGRO J2019+37 and MGRO J2031+41
The Cygnus region is a very bright and complex portion of the TeV sky, host to unidentified sources and a diffuse excess with respect to conventional cosmic-ray propagation models. Two of the brightest TeV sources, MGRO J2019+37 and MGRO J2031+41, are analyzed using Milagro data with a new technique, and their emission is tested under two different spectral assumptions: a power law and a power law with an exponential cutoff. The new analysis technique is based on an energy estimator that uses the fraction of photomultiplier tubes in the observatory that detect the extensive air shower. The photon spectrum is measured in the range 1-100 TeV using the last three years of Milagro data (2005-2008), with the detector in its final configuration. An F-test indicates that MGRO J2019+37 is better fit by a power law with an exponential cutoff than by a simple power law. The best-fitting parameters for the power law with exponential cutoff model are a normalization at 10 TeV of 7(sup +5 sub −2) × 10(exp −10)/ s /sq m/ TeV, a spectral index of 2.0(sup +0.5 sub -10), and a cutoff energy of 29(sup +50 sub −16) TeV. MGRO J2031+41 shows no evidence of a cutoff. The best-fitting parameters for a power law are a normalization of 2.1(sup +0.6 sub −0.6) × 10(exp −10)/ s/sq m/ TeV and a spectral index of 3.22(sup +0.23 sub −0.18. The overall flux is subject to a approx.. 30% systematic uncertainty. The systematic uncertainty on the power-law indices is approx. 0.1. Both uncertainties have been verified with cosmic-ray data. A comparison with previous results from TeV J2032+4130, MGRO J2031+41, and MGRO J2019+37 is also presented.
A Large-Scale Search for Evidence of Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar Flares
The nature of quasi-periodic pulsations (QPP) in solar flares is poorly constrained, and critically the general prevalence of such signals in solar flares is unknown. Therefore, we perform a large-scale search for evidence of signals consistent with QPP in solar flares, focusing on the 1300 s timescale. We analyze 675 M- and X-class flares observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series in 18 soft X-rays between 2011 February 1 and 2015 December 31. Additionally, over the same era we analyze Fermi/Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) 1525 keV X-ray data for each of these flares associated with a Fermi/GBM solar flare trigger, a total of 261 events. Using a model comparison method, we determine whether there is evidence for a substantial enhancement in the Fourier power spectrum that may be consistent with a QPP signature, based on three tested models; a power-law plus a constant, a broken power-law plus constant, and a power-law-plus-constant with an additional QPP signature component. From this, we determine that approx. 30% of GOES events and approx. 8% of Fermi/GBM events show strong signatures consistent with classical interpretations of QPP. For the remaining events either two or more tested models cannot be strongly distinguished from each other, or the events are well-described by single power-law or broken power-law Fourier power spectra. For both instruments, a preferred characteristic time-scale of approx. 5-30 s was found in the QPP-like events, with no dependence on flare magnitude in either GOES or GBM data. We also show that individual events in the sample show similar characteristic time-scales in both GBM and GOES data sets. We discuss the implications of these results for our understanding of solar flares and possible QPP mechanisms.
TDCOSMO. I. An exploration of systematic uncertainties in the inference of $H_0$ from time-delay cosmography
Time-delay cosmography of lensed quasars has achieved 2.4% precision on the measurement of the Hubble constant, H0. As part of an ongoing effort to uncover and control systematic uncertainties, we investigate three potential sources: 1- stellar kinematics, 2- line-of-sight effects, and 3- the deflector mass model. To meet this goal in a quantitative way, we reproduced the H0LiCOW/SHARP/STRIDES (hereafter TDCOSMO) procedures on a set of real and simulated data, and we find the following. First, stellar kinematics cannot be a dominant source of error or bias since we find that a systematic change of 10% of measured velocity dispersion leads to only a 0.7% shift on H0 from the seven lenses analyzed by TDCOSMO. Second, we find no bias to arise from incorrect estimation of the line-of-sight effects. Third, we show that elliptical composite (stars + dark matter halo), power-law, and cored power-law mass profiles have the flexibility to yield a broad range in H0 values. However, the TDCOSMO procedures that model the data with both composite and power-law mass profiles are informative. If the models agree, as we observe in real systems owing to the “bulge-halo” conspiracy, H0 is recovered precisely and accurately by both models. If the two models disagree, as in the case of some pathological models illustrated here, the TDCOSMO procedure either discriminates between them through the goodness of fit, or it accounts for the discrepancy in the final error bars provided by the analysis. This conclusion is consistent with a reanalysis of six of the TDCOSMO (real) lenses: the composite model yields H0 = 74.0−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, while the power-law model yields 74.2−1.6+1.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. In conclusion, we find no evidence of bias or errors larger than the current statistical uncertainties reported by TDCOSMO.
Decreasing wind speed extrapolation error via domain-specific feature extraction and selection
Abstract. Model uncertainty is a significant challenge in the wind energy industry and can lead to mischaracterization of millions of dollars' worth of wind resources. Machine learning methods, notably deep artificial neural networks (ANNs), are capable of modeling turbulent and chaotic systems and offer a promising tool to produce high-accuracy wind speed forecasts and extrapolations. This paper uses data collected by profiling Doppler lidars over three field campaigns to investigate the efficacy of using ANNs for wind speed vertical extrapolation in a variety of terrains, and it quantifies the role of domain knowledge in ANN extrapolation accuracy. A series of 11 meteorological parameters (features) are used as ANN inputs, and the resulting output accuracy is compared with that of both standard log-law and power-law extrapolations. It is found that extracted nondimensional inputs, namely turbulence intensity, current wind speed, and previous wind speed, are the features that most reliably improve the ANN's accuracy, providing up to a 65 % and 52 % increase in extrapolation accuracy over log-law and power-law predictions, respectively. The volume of input data is also deemed important for achieving robust results. One test case is analyzed in depth using dimensional and nondimensional features, showing that the feature nondimensionalization drastically improves network accuracy and robustness for sparsely sampled atmospheric cases.
A decade of insights: Delving into calendar aging trends and implications
Lithium-ion batteries remain at rest for extended periods and experience calendar aging. Although lithium-ion batteries are expected to perform for over 10 years at room temperature, long-term calendar aging data are seldom reported over such timescales. We present a dataset from 232 commercial cells across eight cell types and five manufacturers that underwent calendar aging across various temperatures and states of charge (SOCs) for up to 13 years. We analyze calendar aging across these conditions by tracking capacity loss and resistance growth as the cells degrade. This dataset is used to validate simple models, primarily the Arrhenius law and the power law, which explain the temperature and storage time on calendar aging. Certain applications of Arrhenius and power law fail to describe the dependence of capacity loss on temperature and resistance growth on storage time. Through this dataset, we demonstrate the complexity of calendar aging and the challenges in reducing trends into phenomenological models.
The spectrum and pulses of 1E 2259+586 from ASCA and BBXRT observations
The 7 s X-ray pulsator 1E 2259+586 was observed for approximately 1 day in 1993 with the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA). Observations were also obtained with Broad Band X-ray Telescope (BBXRT) in 1990 a few months after Ginga had observed 1E 2259+586 to be brighter than normal and the BBXRT data show 1E 2259+586 to be at an intermediate brightness level. By contrast, the ASCA data appear to have been obtained during a more common lower luminosity state. The pulse profiles we obtain are consistent with a connection between flux and pulse shape reported from Ginga data, and the pulsator continues to spin down. We use our high spectral resolution data to search for cyclotron lines in the spectrum that were claimed from observations made with other satellites. We find that the ASCA spectra of 1E 2259+586 cannot be satisfactorily fitted with either a single power law or a combination of two power laws, and that significant residuals occur around 1.5 and 5 keV. However, a combination of a power law and blackbody gives a good fit over the entire ASCA energy band with no evidence of spectral features. We have reanalyzed a Ginga LAC spectrum and find that this is also significantly better fitted by this two-component spectrum than a single power law. A possible explanation for such a two-component spectrum is that the blackbody emission comes from a neutron star and that the power-law component comes, at least in part, from a surrounding nebula. As there has, so far, no direct evidence that 1E 2259+586 is a binary system we consider whether there are other plausible mechanisms that might power the observed X-ray emission.
Analysis of Two Models for the Angular Structure of the Outflows Producing the Swift/XRT “Larger-angle Emission” of Gamma-Ray Bursts
The quasi-instantaneous emission from a relativistic surface endowed with a Lorentz factor that decreases away from the outflow symmetry axis can naturally explain the three phases observed by Swift X-Ray Telescope (XRT) in gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and their afterglows (GRB tail, afterglow plateau, and postplateau) based only on the angular change of the relativistic Doppler boost across the outflow surface. We develop further the analytical formalism of the “larger-angle emission” model for the case of “n-exponential” outflows (where the Lorentz factor Γ dependence of the angular location θ is Γ ~ exp{-(θ/θ c ) n }), and compare its ability to account for the X-ray emission of XRT afterglows relative to that of “power-law” outflows (Γ ∼ θ −g ). Power-law outflows yield longer afterglow plateaus, followed by slower postplateau flux decays than n-exponential outflows, features which may be used in identifying which type of angular structure is at work in a given afterglow. Identifying the Γ(θ) angular structure that accommodates XRT light curves is slightly complicated by the fact that the afterglow X-ray light curve is also determined by how two characteristics of the comoving-frame emission spectrum (peak energy $E'_p$ and peak intensity $i'_p$) change with the angular location or, equivalently, with the Lorentz factor. Here, we assume power-law Γ dependences of those spectral characteristics and find that, unlike power-law outflows, n-exponential outflows cannot account for plateaus with a temporal dynamical range larger than 100 (2 dex in logarithmic space). To capture all the information contained in XRT afterglow measurements (0.3–10 keV unabsorbed flux and effective spectral slope), we calculate 0.3 and 10 keV light curves using a broken-power-law emission spectrum of peak energy and low- and high-energy slopes that are derived from the effective slope measured by XRT. This economical peak energy determination is found to be consistent with the results of more expensive spectral fits. The angular distributions of the Lorentz factor, comoving frame peak energy, and peak intensity (Γ(θ), $E'_p$(θ), $i'_p$(θ)) constrain the (yet-to-be determined) convolution of various features of the production of relativistic jets by solar-mass black holes and of their propagation through the progenitor/circumburst medium, while the $E'_p$(Γ) and $i'_p$(Γ) dependences may constrain the GRB dissipation mechanism and the GRB emission process.
Variable-Frequency QPOs from the Galactic Microquasar GRS 1915+105
We show that the galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 exhibits quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOS) whose frequency varies continuously from 1-15 Hz, during spectrally hard dips when the source is in a flaring state. NN'e report here analyses of simultaneous energy spectra and power density spectra at 4 s intervals. The energy spectrum is well fit at each time step by an optically thick accretion disk plus power law model, while the power density spectrum consists of a varying red noise component plus the variable frequency QPO. The features of both spectra are strongly correlated with one another. The 1-15 Hz QPOs appear when the power law component becomes hard and intense, and themselves have an energy spectrum consistent with the power law component (with root mean square amplitudes as high as 10%). The frequency of the oscillations, however, is most strikingly correlated with the parameters of the thermal disk component. The tightest correlation is between QPO frequency and the disk X-ray flux. This fact indicates that the properties of the QPO are not determined by solely a disk or solely a corona.
Development and Implementation of Non-Newtonian Rheology Into the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP)
One of the goals of this program was to develop the experimental and analytical/computational tools required to predict the flow of non-Newtonian fluids through the various system components of a propulsion system: pipes, valves, pumps etc. To achieve this goal we selected to augment the capabilities of NASA's Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) software. GFSSP is a general-purpose computer program designed to calculate steady state and transient pressure and flow distributions in a complex fluid network. While the current version of the GFSSP code is able to handle various systems components the implicit assumption in the code is that the fluids in the system are Newtonian. To extend the capability of the code to non-Newtonian fluids, such as silica gelled fuels and oxidizers, modifications to the momentum equations of the code have been performed. We have successfully implemented in GFSSP flow equations for fluids with power law behavior. The implementation of the power law fluid behavior into the GFSSP code depends on knowledge of the two fluid coefficients, n and K. The determination of these parameters for the silica gels used in this program was performed experimentally. The n and K parameters for silica water gels were determined experimentally at CFDRC's Special Projects Laboratory, with a constant shear rate capillary viscometer. Batches of 8:1 (by weight) water-silica gel were mixed using CFDRC s 10-gallon gelled propellant mixer. Prior to testing the gel was allowed to rest in the rheometer tank for at least twelve hours to ensure that the delicate structure of the gel had sufficient time to reform. During the tests silica gel was pressure fed and discharged through stainless steel pipes ranging from 1", to 36", in length and three diameters; 0.0237", 0.032", and 0.047". The data collected in these tests included pressure at tube entrance and volumetric flowrate. From these data the uncorrected shear rate, shear stress, residence time, and viscosity were evaluated using formulae for non-Newtonian, power law fluids. The maximum shear rates (corrected for entrance effects) obtained in the rheometer with the current setup were in the 150,000 to 170,000sec- range. GFSSP simulations were performed with a flow circuit simulating the capillary rheometer and using Power Law gel viscosity coefficients from the experimental data. The agreement between the experimental data and the simulated flow curves was within +/-4% given quality entrance effect data.
HEAO 1 A-2 low-energy detector X-ray spectra of the Lupus Loop and SN 1006
The Lupus Loop and SN 1006 were observed by the A-2 low-energy detector proportional counters on the HEAO 1 satellite as part of the all-sky survey. As a result of a major advance in understanding of detector response and background accurate analysis of the data has become possible. Soft X-ray spectra for both supernova remnants were constructed from the PHA data taken during the scanning observations. Single-temperature and two-temperature Raymond-Smith models were fitted to the observed spectra. In addition, power-law and power-law plus one-temperature models were fitted to the spectrum of SN 1006. Only two-component models provide an adequate description for both Lupus Loop and SN 1006 spectra. The temperatures, column densities, and emission measures are significantly more accurate than previous results.
Evidence for a Canonical GRB Afterglow Light Curve in the Swift/XRT Data
We present new observations of the early X-ray afterglows of the first 27 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected with the Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT). The early X-ray afterglows show a canonical behavior, where the light curve broadly consists of three distinct power law segments. These power law segments are separated by two corresponding break times. On top of this canonical behavior of the early X-ray light curve, many events have superimposed X-ray flares, which are most likely caused by internal shocks due to long lasting sporadx activity of the central engine, up to several hours after the GRB. We find that the initial steep decay is consistent with it being the tail of the prompt emission: from photons that are radiated at large angles relative to our line of sight. The first break in the light curve takes place when the forward shock emission becomes dominant, with the intermediate shallow flux decay likely caused by the continuous energy injection into the external shock. When this energy injection stops, a second break is then observed in the light curve. This energy injection increases the energy of the afterglow shock by at least a factor of f greater than or approx. equal to 4, and augments the already severe requirements for the efficiency of the prompt gamma-ray emission.
Inferred Cosmic-Ray Spectrum from Fermi-LAT Gamma-Ray Observations of the Earths Limb
Recent accurate measurements of cosmic-ray (CR) species by ATIC-2, CREAM, and PAMELA reveal an unexpected hardening in the proton and He spectra above a few hundred GeV, a gradual softening of the spectra just below a few hundred GeV, and a harder spectrum of He compared to that of protons. These newly-discovered features may offer a clue to the origin of high-energy CRs. We use the Fermi Large Area Telescope observations of the -ray emission from the Earth's limb for an indirect measurement of the local spectrum of CR protons in the energy range approx. 90 GeV-6 TeV (derived from a photon energy range 15 GeV-1 TeV). Our analysis shows that single power law and broken power law spectra fit the data equally well and yield a proton spectrum with index 2.68 +/- 0.04 and 2.61 +/- 0.08 above approx. 200 GeV, respectively.
Spectral Index and Quasi-Periodic Oscillation Frequency Correlation in Black Hole Sources: Observational Evidence of Two Phases and Phase Transition in Black Holes
Recent studies have shown that strong correlations are observed between the low frequencies (1-10 Hz) of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) and the spectral power law index of several black hole (BH) candidate sources, in low (hard) states, steep power law (soft) states, and transitions between these states. The observations indicate that the X-ray spectra of such state (phases) show the presence of a power-law component and are sometimes related to simultaneous radio emission, indicating the probable presence of a jet. Strong QPOs (>20% rms) are present in the power density spectrum in the spectral range where the power-law component is dominant (i.e., 60%90%). This evidence contradicts the dominant, long-standing interpretation of QPOs as a signature of the thermal accretion disk. We present the data from the literature and our own data to illustrate the dominance of power-law index-QPO frequency correlations. We provide a model that identifies and explains the origin of the QPOs and how they are imprinted on the properties of the power-law flux component. We argue for the existence of a bounded compact coronal region that is a natural consequence of the adjustment of the Keplerian disk flow to the innermost sub-Keplerian boundary conditions near the central object and that ultimately leads to the formation of a transition layer (TL) between the adjustment radius and the innermost boundary. The model predicts two phases or states dictated by the photon upscattering produced in the TL: (1) a hard state, in which the TL is optically thin and very hot (kT approximately greater than 50 keV), producing photon upscattering via thermal Comptonization (the photon spectrum index Gamma approximates 1.7 for this state is dictated by gravitational energy release and Compton cooling in an optically thin shock near the adjustment radius), and (2) a soft state that is optically thick and relatively cold (kT approximately less than 5 keV the index for this state, Gamma approximates 2.8, is determined by soft-photon upscattering and photon trapping in a converging flow into the BH). In the TL model for the corona, the QPO frequency V(sub high) is related to the gravitational (close to Keplerian) frequency V(sub K) at the outer (adjustment) radius and v(sub low) is related to the TL's normal mode (magnetoacoustic) oscillation frequency v(sub MA) . The observed correlations between index and low and high QPO frequencies are readily explained in terms of this model. We also suggest a new method for evaluation of the BH mass using the index-frequency correlation.