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NASA NTRS1985

On a variational approach to some parameter estimation problems

Examples (1-D seismic, large flexible structures, bioturbation, nonlinear population dispersal) in which a variation setting can provide a convenient framework for convergence and stability arguments in parameter estimation problems are considered. Some of these examples are 1-D seismic, large flexible structures, bioturbation, and nonlinear population dispersal. Arguments for convergence and stability via a variational approach of least squares formulations of parameter estimation problems for partial differential equations is one aspect of the problem considered.

Banks, H. T.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Ratio of Spore to Viable Organisms: A Case Study of the JPL-SAF Cleanroom

Spacecraft surfaces that are destined to land on potential life-harboring celestial bodies are required to be rigorously cleaned and continuously monitored for spore bioburden as a proxy for spacecraft cleanliness. The NASA standard assay (NSA), used for spacecraft bioburden estimates, specifically measures spores that are cultivable, aerobic, resistant to heat shock, and grow at 30 C in a nutrient-rich medium. Since the vast majority of microorganisms cannot be cultivated using the NSA, it is necessary to utilize state-of-the art molecular techniques to better understand the presence of all viable microorganisms, not just those measured with the NSA. In this study, the nutrient-deprived low biomass cleanrooms, where spacecraft are assembled, were used as a surrogate for spacecraft surfaces to measure the ratio of NSA spores in relation to the total viable microorganism population in order to make comparisons with the 2006 Space Studies Board (SSB) estimate of 1 spore per approximately 50,000 viable organisms. Ninety-eight surface wipe samples were collected from the Spacecraft Assembly Facility (SAF) cleanroom at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) over a 6-month period. The samples were processed and analyzed using classical microbiology along with molecular methodology. Traditional microbiology plating methods were used to determine the cultivable bacterial, fungal, and spore populations. Molecular assays were used to determine the total organisms (TO, dead and live) and the viable organisms (VO, live). The TO was measured using adenosine triphosphate (ATP) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays. The VO was measured using internal ATP, propidium monoazide (PMA)-qPCR, and flow cytometry (after staining for viable microorganisms) assays. Based on the results, it was possible to establish a ratio between spore counts and VO for each viability assay. The ATP-based spore to VO ratio ranged from 149-746, and the bacterial PMA-qPCR assay-based ratio ranged from 314-1,491 VO, per spore. The most conservative estimate came from fluorescent-assisted cell sorting (FACS), which estimated the ratio to be 12,091 VO per 1 NSA spore. Since archaeal (less than 1%) and fungal (approximately 2%) populations were negligible, the spore to VO ratios were based on bacterial population estimates. The most conservative ratio from this study can be used as a replacement for the SSB estimate on nutrient-deprived (oligotrophic) desiccated spacecraft surfaces, to estimate the VO from NSA measurements without utilizing state-of-the art molecular methods that are costly and require more biomass than is typically found on spacecraft surfaces.

Hendrickson, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS2007

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

New Global Characterization of Landslide Exposure

Landslides triggered by intense rainfall are hazards that impact people and infrastructure across the world, but comprehensively quantifying exposure to these hazards remains challenging. Unlike earthquakes or flooding which cover large areas, landslides occur only in highly susceptible parts of a landscape affected by intense rainfall, which may not intersect human settlement or infrastructure. Existing datasets of landslides around the world generally include only those reported to have caused impacts, leading to significant biases toward areas with higher reporting capacity, limiting how our understanding of exposure to landslides in developing countries. In this study, we use an alternative approach to estimate exposure to landslides in a homogenous fashion. We have combined a global landslide hazard proxy derived from satellite data with open-source datasets on population, roads and infrastructure to consistently estimate exposure to rapid landslide hazards around the globe. These exposure models compare favorably with existing datasets of rainfall-triggered landslide fatalities, while filling in major gaps in inventory-based estimates in parts of the world with lower reporting capacity. Our findings provide a global estimate of exposure to landslides from 2001-2019 that we suggest may be useful to disaster mitigation professionals.

earthquakes↗
NASA NTRS2018

International Space Station Operational Experience and Its Impacts on Future Mission Supportability

Operational experience gained on the International Space Station (ISS) has enabled significant improvements in failure rate estimates for various Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs). These improved estimates, in turn, allow more efficient and accurate spare parts allocations for future missions, enabling significant reductions in both logistics mass and risk. This paper examines the value of ISS experience to date in terms of its impact on supportability for future missions. A supportability model is presented that assesses the spares required as a function of mission endurance and risk, taking into account uncertainty in failure rate estimates. Changes in ISS Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLSS) ORU failure rate estimates are described and discussed, both in terms of the overall population of ORUs and the evolution of failure rate estimates over time for a particular item. The value of those updated failure rate estimates is assessed by calculating the estimated spares mass requirements for two cases, using the initial, pre-ISS estimates and using the estimates informed by on-orbit experience. Hidden risk resulting from underestimated failure rates is also assessed. These results indicate that, for a 1,200-day Mars mission, ISS experience has enabled a 3.9 t to 6.0 t reduction in ECLSS spares mass required and uncovered failure rate underestimates that would have resulted in an order of magnitude increase in risk had they not been discovered and corrected. The implications of these results for system development and mission planning are discussed, including approaches to accelerate the rate of failure rate refinement and the risks associated with making changes or introducing new systems. Overall, test time is a critical factor that must be carefully considered in system development, and new systems must budget appropriate time for testing in a relevant environment or accept higher risk and logistics requirements on future missions.

Owens, Andrew C.↗
NASA NTRS1967

Computer program reduces calculation time of normal response functions

FORTRAN 2 computer program rapidly calculates parameters of maximum likelihood estimates from sensitivity experiment data populations. The program uses the Newton-Raphson iterative procedure to calculate the mean and standard deviation of portions of the cumulative normal response function.

Alexander, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Inventory and analysis of natural vegetation and related resources from space and high altitude photography

A multiple sampling technique was developed whereby spacecraft photographs supported by aircraft photographs could be used to quantify plant communities. Large scale (1:600 to 1:2,400) color infrared aerial photographs were required to identify shrub and herbaceous species. These photos were used to successfully estimate a herbaceous standing crop biomass. Microdensitometry was used to discriminate among specific plant communities and individual plant species. Large scale infrared photography was also used to estimate mule deer deaths and population density of northern pocket gophers.

Poulton, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Disaster warning system: Satellite feasibility and comparison with terrestrial systems. Volume 1: Executive summary

The Disaster Warning System (DWS) is a conceptual system which will provide the National Weather Service (NWS) with communication services in the 1980s to help minimize losses caused by natural disasters. The object of this study is a comparative analysis between a terrestrial DWS and a satellite DWS. Baseline systems satisfying the NOAA requirements were synthesized in sufficient detail so that a comparison could be made in terms of performance and cost. The cost of both baseline systems is dominated by the disaster warning and spotter reporting functions. An effort was undertaken to reduce system cost through lower-capacity alternative systems generated by modifying the baseline systems. By reducing the number of required channels and modifying the spotter reporting techniques, alternative satellite systems were synthesized. A terrestrial alternative with the coverage reduced to an estimated 95 percent of the population was considered.

Spoor, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Non-thermal processes in large solar flares

The paper examines the significance of particle acceleration processes in large solar flares, and the importance of accelerated particles in the generation of other flare phenomena. Comprehensive observations of the August 1972 series of large flares were used to obtain quantitative estimates of the energetic particle populations, the electromagnetic emissions, and the mass ejections. The fluxes of energetic electrons and protons were derived from observed X-ray and gamma-ray emissions, respectively. The energy input into the solar atmosphere from the collisional losses of these energetic particles is computed as a function of overlying column density, under the assumption that particles are accelerated at a point high in the solar atmosphere and then precipitate down to denser layers. The flash phase radiation, soft X-ray flare plasma, and the interplanetary shock wave can be consistently and quantitatively explained as a result of the interaction of nonrelativistic electrons with the solar atmosphere.

Lin, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Sampling Landsat classifications for crop area estimation

An investigation was conducted to evaluate the effect of several sampling alternatives on the accuracy of crop area estimates made from classification of Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data. The specific objective was to assess the precision and the bias associated with alternative sampling schemes involving different numbers of several sampling unit sizes. The estimates achieved using the 5 by 6 nm segments were found to have the least precision of any sampling scheme tested. The estimates become more precise as the segment size decreases and more segments are taken. The precision of the 5 by 6 nm segments was significantly less than that of the pixel samples. None of the sampling schemes was significantly biased on the average, and none of the average estimates differed significantly from the population parameter. The maximum absolute deviation, however, was directly related to sampling unit size and should be considered in selection of a sampling unit.

Hixson, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Dynamical evolution of the Oort cometary cloud

The dynamical evolution of comets in the Oort cloud under the influence of stellar perturbations has been modeled using Monte Carlo techniques. It is shown that the cloud has been depleted over the history of the solar system. Comets are lost from the cloud by direct ejection due to close stellar encounters, diffusion of aphelia to distances beyond the sun's sphere of influence, or diffusion of perihelia into the planetary region where Jupiter and Saturn perturbations either eject them on hyperbolic trajectories or capture them to short-period orbits. The population of the cloud is estimated to be 1.0 - 1.5 x 10 to the 12th comets and the total mass is on the order of 1.9 earth masses. In addition to random passing stars, less frequent encounters with giant molecular clouds may play a significant role in randomizing the orbits of comets in the cloud and reducing the effective radius of the sun's sphere of influence.

Weissman, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Protostellar formation in rotating interstellar clouds. VII - Opacity and fragmentation

This paper investigates the effect of variations in the Rosseland mean opacity of dust grains on numerical models of three-dimensional protostellar collapse and fragmentation. In particular, it is found that increasing the dust grain opacity by factors of three to four has little effect upon the gross characteristics of protostellar fragmentation. Consequently, theoretical quantities such as the estimated minimum protostellar mass for Population I star formation are insensitive to the precise value of the opacity.

Boss, Alan P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Leveling coatings for reducing the atomic oxygen defect density in protected graphite fiber epoxy composites

Pinholes or other defect sites in a protective oxide coating provide pathways for atomic oxygen in low Earth orbit to reach underlying material. One concept for enhancing the lifetime of materials in low Earth orbits is to apply a leveling coating to the material prior to applying any reflective and protective coatings. Using a surface tension leveling coating concept, a low viscosity epoxy was applied to the surface of several composite coupons. A protective layer of 1000 A of SiO2 was deposited on top of the leveling coating, and the coupons were exposed to an atomic oxygen environment in a plasma asher. Pinhole populations per unit area were estimated by counting the number of undercut sites observed by scanning electron microscopy. Defect density values of 180,000 defects/sq cm were reduced to about 1000 defects/sq cm as a result of the applied leveling coating. These improvements occur at a mass penalty of about 2.5 mg/sq cm.

Jaworske, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Leveling coatings for reducing the atomic oxygen defect density in protected graphite fiber epoxy composites

Pinholes or other defect sites in a protective oxide coating provide pathways for atomic oxygen in low Earth orbit to reach underlying material. One concept of enhancing the lifetime of materials in low Earth orbit is to apply a leveling coating to the material prior to applying any reflective and protective coatings. Using a surface tension leveling coating concept, a low viscosity epoxy was applied to the surface of several composite coupons. A protective layer of 1000 A of SiO2 was deposited on top of the leveling coating, and the coupons were exposed to an atomic oxygen environment in a plasma asher. Pinhole populations per unit area were estimated by counting the number of undercut sites observed by scanning electron microscopy. Defect density values of 180,000 defects/sq cm were reduced to about 1000 defects/sq cm as a result of the applied leveling coating. These improvements occur at a mass penalty of about 2.5 mg/sq cm.

Jaworske, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Beryllium and boron constraints on an early Galactic bright phase

The recent observations of Be and B in metal-deficient halo dwarfs are used to constrain a 'bright phase' of enhanced cosmic-ray flux in the early Galaxy. Assuming that this Be and B arises from cosmic-ray spallation in the early Galaxy, limits are placed on the intensity of the early (Population II) cosmic-ray flux relative to the present (Population I) flux. A simple estimate of bounds on the flux ratio is 1 - 40. This upper bound would restrict galaxies like our own from producing neutrino fluxes that would be detectable in any currently proposed detectors. It is found that the relative enhancement of the early flux varies inversely with the relative time of enhancement. It is noted that associated gamma-ray production via pp - pi sup 0 pp may be a significant contribution to the gamma-ray background above 100 MeV.

Fields, Brian D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The biostratigraphy and paleogeography of Maastrichtian inoceramids

The global distribution of Maastrichtian inoceramids is now known in enough detail that the patterns of disappearance can be used to place first-order constraints on paleoceanographic changes that may have occurred during that age. The Inoceramidae is an excellent group to focus on in a study of Maastrichtian events for the following reasons: (1) they were globally distributed in the early Maastrichtian; (2) they did not survive the age (i.e., they undergo change during the interval); and (3) they have left a rich microfossil and macrofossil record. Some inoceramids grew to be very large; however, even the largest often passively disaggregated and are preserved as hundreds of millions of characteristic, columnar, polygonal prisms of calcite approximately 100 microns across. This taphonomic process has greatly increased the inoceramid fossil record and provides a means of objectively estimating changes in their standing population. In addition, because these prisms commonly occur in Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) cores, it is relatively easy to generate a truly global database. The existing macrofossil record of inoceramids has less temporal and spacial resolution but greater taxonomic resolution than the microfossil record. In concert the microfossil and macrofossil records of inoceramids demonstrate that important changes occurred during the Maastrichtian. These changes are distinct from the KT boundary catastrophe but are part of the larger KT transition.

Macleod, K. G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Transitional Protoplanetary Disk Frequency as a Function of Age: Disk Evolution in the Coronet Cluster, Taurus, and Other 1--8 Myr-old Regions

We present Spitzer 3.6-24 micron photometry and spectroscopy for stars in the 1-3 Myr-old Coronet Cluster, expanding upon the survey of Sicilia-Aguilar et al. (2008). Using sophisticated radiative transfer models, we analyze these new data and those from Sicilia-Aguilar et al. (2008) to identify disks with evidence for substantial dust evolution consistent with disk clearing: transitional disks. We then analyze data in Taurus and others young clusters - IC 348, NGC 2362, and eta Cha -- to constrain the transitional disk frequency as a function of time. Our analysis confirms previous results finding evidence for two types of transitional disks -- those with inner holes and those that are homologously depleted. The percentage of disks in the transitional phase increases from approx.15-20% at 1-2 Myr to > 50% at 5-8 Myr; the mean transitional disk lifetime is closer to approx. 1 Myr than 0.1-0.5 Myr, consistent with previous studies by Currie et al. (2009) and Sicilia-Aguilar et al. (2009). In the Coronet Cluster and IC 348, transitional disks are more numerous for very low-mass M3--M6 stars than for more massive K5-M2 stars, while Taurus lacks a strong spectral type-dependent frequency. Assuming standard values for the gas-to-dust ratio and other disk properties, the lower limit for the masses of optically-thick primordial disks is Mdisk approx. 0.001-0.003 M*. We find that single color-color diagrams do not by themselves uniquely identify transitional disks or primordial disks. Full SED modeling is required to accurately assess disk evolution for individual sources and inform statistical estimates of the transitional disk population in large samples using mid-IR colors.

Currie, Thayne↗
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗