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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Streamlining Ocean Dynamics Modeling with Fourier Neural Operators: A Multiobjective Hyperparameter and Architecture Optimization Approach

Training an effective deep learning model to learn ocean processes involves careful choices of various hyperparameters. We leverage DeepHyper’s advanced search algorithms for multiobjective optimization, streamlining the development of neural networks tailored for ocean modeling. The focus is on optimizing Fourier neural operators (FNOs), a data-driven model capable of simulating complex ocean behaviors. Selecting the correct model and tuning the hyperparameters are challenging tasks, requiring much effort to ensure model accuracy. DeepHyper allows efficient exploration of hyperparameters associated with data preprocessing, FNO architecture-related hyperparameters, and various model training strategies. We aim to obtain an optimal set of hyperparameters leading to the most performant model. Moreover, on top of the commonly used mean squared error for model training, we propose adopting the negative anomaly correlation coefficient as the additional loss term to improve model performance and investigate the potential trade-off between the two terms. The numerical experiments show that the optimal set of hyperparameters enhanced model performance in single timestepping forecasting and greatly exceeded the baseline configuration in the autoregressive rollout for long-horizon forecasting up to 30 days. Utilizing DeepHyper, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the use of FNO in ocean dynamics forecasting, offering a scalable solution with improved precision.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Image processing pipeline for AI-driven nanoparticle megalibrary characterization

Recent innovations have made it possible to produce megalibraries, millions of structurally and compositionally distinct nanoparticles on a chip. These megalibraries yield vast volumes of data that are impossible to analyze manually, necessitating the development of automated tools. In previous work, we created a binary classification machine learning model to select quality nanoparticle images for downstream analysis. In this work, we show that adding a custom image processing step before training can produce significantly higher-performing models in a fraction of the time and make them more robust to different image noise levels and microscope acquisition settings. The image processing pipeline proposed here effectively cleans raw nanoparticle images, enhances key features, and allows us to use much lower resolution images and simpler neural network model architectures. These features result in higher performance and significant cost savings. Experiments demonstrate superior performance relative to baseline, including an 18.2% improvement in recall and a 13.1% increase in accuracy. Given the high cost of downstream analysis, it is critical to minimize false positives, and our best-performing model reaches a precision of 95.9% and a weighted F-score of 95.1% on an unseen test set. Additionally, model training time is reduced from hours to less than a minute. We also show that, using this custom image processing pipeline, model performance is significantly improved at lower pixel resolutions compared to downsizing alone. We expect that adopting this pipeline for AI-driven automated nanoparticle characterization will allow researchers to rapidly and accurately analyze much greater volumes of data, thereby accelerating materials discovery.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

DPC Direct Disposal Postclosure Thermal Modeling

Performance of geologic radioactive waste repositories depends on near-field and far-field processes, including km-scale flow and transport in engineered and natural barriers, that may require simulations of up to 1 M years of regulatory period. For a relatively short time span (less than 1000 years), the thermohydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) coupled processes caused by heat from the waste package will influence near-field multiphase flow, chemical/reactive transport, and mechanical behaviors in the repository system. This study integrates the heat-driven perturbations in thermo-hydro-mechanical characteristics into thermo-hydro-chemical simulations using PFLOTRAN to reduce dimensionality and improve computational efficiency by implementing functions of stress-dependent permeability and saturation-temperature-dependent thermal conductivity. These process couplings are developed for spent nuclear fuel in dual-purpose canisters in two different hypothetical repositories: a shale repository and a salt repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Informing Robust Functional Relationship Benchmarks: An Evaluation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration Across the Arctic-Boreal Region

During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperature) and a response variable (e.g., ecosystem respiration) and are a promising tool for assessing model performance by evaluating modeled sensitivities to changing environmental conditions. However, observed functional relationships can be influenced by choices made during data collection and throughout the benchmarking process, impacting the inferred skill of land models. To avoid misrepresenting a model's true performance, it is necessary to systematically evaluate best practices when constructing functional relationship benchmarks. We developed a set of guidelines for constructing functional relationship benchmarks, considering the choice of data set, number of daily observations, temporal extent, and temporal resolution across Alaska and Canada over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration from observations, evaluated through an apparent Q 10 , is highly variable both spatially and as a result of the data processing approach applied in the benchmark formation. When benchmarking 13 models from the Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP), the range in inferred model skill is substantially impacted by the choices applied in constructing functional relationship benchmarks. The inferred performance of a given model is most sensitive to the number of daily observations and temporal extent, followed by choice of benchmark data set and temporal averaging. Results from this analysis can guide the development of consistent and robust functional relationships for future model evaluation studies.

Poe, Jeralyn [Northern Arizona University, Flagsta↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observation of quantum effects on radiation reaction in strong fields

Radiation reaction, the force experienced by an accelerated charge due to radiation emission, has long been the subject of extensive theoretical and experimental research. Experimental verification of a quantum, strong-field description of radiation reaction is fundamentally important, and has wide-ranging implications for astrophysics, laser-driven particle acceleration, next-generation particle colliders and inverse-Compton photon sources for medical and industrial applications. However, the difficulty of accessing regimes where strong field and quantum effects dominate inhibited previous efforts to observe quantum radiation reaction in charged particle dynamics with high significance. We report the first high significance (> 5σ) observation of strong-field radiation reaction on electron spectra where quantum effects are substantial. We obtain the first, quantitative, strong evidence favouring the quantum-continuous and quantum-stochastic models over the classical model; the quantum models perform comparably. The lower electron energy losses predicted by the quantum models accounts for their improved performance. Model comparison was performed using a novel Bayesian framework which has widespread utility for laser-particle collision experiments, including those utilising conventional accelerators, where some collision parameters cannot be measured directly.

Los, Eva E. [Imperial College London (United Kingd↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind/Wave Testing of a 1:70-Scale Performance-Matched Model of the IEA Wind 15 MW Reference Wind Turbine with Real-Time ROSCO Control and Floating Feedback

Experimental results from the Floating Offshore-wind and Controls Advanced Laboratory (FOCAL) experimental program, which tested a performance-matched model of the IEA Wind 15 MW Reference Turbine on a 1:70 scale floating semisubmersible platform, are compared with OpenFAST simulations. Four experimental campaigns were performed, and data from the fourth campaign, which focused on wind and wave testing of the scaled floating wind turbine system, are considered. Simulations of wave-only, wind-only, and wind/wave environments are performed in OpenFAST, and results for key metrics are compared with the experiment. Performance of the real-time Reference OpenSource COntroller (ROSCO) in above-rated wind conditions, including the effects of the floating feedback loop, are investigated. Results show good agreement in mean values for key metrics, and hydrodynamic effects are matched well. Differences in the surge resonant behavior of the platform are identified and discussed. The effect of the controller and floating feedback loop is evident in both the experiment and OpenFAST, showing significant reduction in platform pitch response and tower base bending load near the platform pitch natural frequency.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Construction of Women’s All-Around Speed Skating Event Performance Prediction Model and Competition Strategy Analysis Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

Introduction Accurately predicting the competitive performance of elite athletes is an essential prerequisite for formulating competitive strategies. Women’s all-around speed skating event consists of four individual subevents, and the competition system is complex and challenging to make accurate predictions on their performance. Objective The present study aims to explore the feasibility and effectiveness of machine learning algorithms for predicting the performance of women’s all-around speed skating event and provide effective training and competition strategies. Methods The data, consisting of 16 seasons of world-class women’s all-around speed skating competition results, used in the present study came from the International Skating Union (ISU). According to the competition rules, distinct features are filtered using lasso regression, and a 5,000 m race model and a medal model are built using a fivefold cross-validation method. Results The results showed that the support vector machine model was the most stable among the 5,000 m race and the medal models, with the highest AUC (0.86, 0.81, respectively). Furthermore, 3,000 m points are the main characteristic factors that decide whether an athlete can qualify for the final. The 11th lap of the 5,000 m, the second lap of the 500 m, and the fourth lap of the 1,500 m are the main characteristic factors that affect the athlete’s ability to win medals. Conclusion Compared with logistic regression, random forest, K-nearest neighbor, naive Bayes, neural network, support vector machine is a more viable algorithm to establish the performance prediction model of women’s all-around speed skating event; excellent performance in the 3,000 m event can facilitate athletes to advance to the final, and athletes with outstanding performance in the 500 m event are more likely competitive for medals.

Liu, Meng↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate and Data‐Efficient Micro X‐ray Diffraction Phase Identification Using Multitask Learning: Application to Hydrothermal Fluids

Traditional analysis of highly distorted micro X‐ray diffraction (μ‐XRD) patterns from hydrothermal fluid environments is a time‐consuming process, often requiring substantial data preprocessing and labeled experimental data. Herein, the potential of deep learning with a multitask learning (MTL) architecture to overcome these limitations is demonstrated. MTL models are trained to identify phase information in μ‐XRD patterns, minimizing the need for labeled experimental data and masking preprocessing steps. Notably, MTL models show superior accuracy compared to binary classification convolutional neural networks. Additionally, introducing a tailored cross‐entropy loss function improves MTL model performance. Most significantly, MTL models tuned to analyze raw and unmasked XRD patterns achieve close performance to models analyzing preprocessed data, with minimal accuracy differences. This work indicates that advanced deep learning architectures like MTL can automate arduous data handling tasks, streamline the analysis of distorted XRD patterns, and reduce the reliance on labor‐intensive experimental datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technical Report on Waveform Fit Metrics for Global Models

The new WAVEFORMS Initiative in the Ground-based Nuclear Detonation Detection (GNDD) program includes an increased emphasis on the development of Earth models and methods to predict entire seismic and acoustic waveforms more accurately. In general, this increased emphasis is predicated on the need to better characterize seismic events and provide improved model-based discrimination between event types including earthquakes and explosions. More specifically, while current moment tensor inversion methods tend to work well for larger events (M>~4) using tuned 1-D Earth models, the development of state-of-the-art 3-D models and methods is required for the prediction of shorter period waves over large areas for discrimination of smaller events. There is no standard metric for model-based waveform prediction accuracy used in the waveform modeling/inversion community. However, there are several popular waveform misfit definitions; and minimizing the corresponding objective functions is the goal of waveform inversion. Some example misfit definitions employed for adjoint waveform tomography include measures of simple travel time differences (e.g. Tape et al., 2010), cross-correlation travel time differences (e.g. Luo and Schuster, 1991), multi-taper frequency dependent methods (e.g. Lei et al., 2020), time-frequency phase misfit functions (e.g. Fichtner 2010; Rodgers et al., 2022), normalized cross-correlation methods (e.g. Tao et al., 2018), and others. In some cases, these misfit definitions also involve complicated weighting schemes and summations over multiple frequency bands making it difficult to duplicate the misfit measurement with alternative models and datasets. Although each of the misfit definitions mentioned above are useful for developing waveform models, the actual misfit values are not usually meaningful outside of a given project, model, and/or dataset. Therefore, it is difficult to understand and communicate model performance for predicting waveforms and comparing to other models and/or new model iterations with a different dataset. Therefore, there is a need for a generalized method for evaluating overall model performance that is independent from the specific misfit chosen to develop the waveform models that is also intuitive and meaningful. In this report, we describe a new metric we refer to as ‘Percent of Correlated Signal’. The following sections describe and demonstrate the metric with a case study event and a more rigorous test using a random selection of globally distributed events. While the focus here is on global tomography models, the metric is meant to applicable to regional ‘wiggle-for-wiggle’ waveform models/studies as well.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Client Selection in Federated Learning: A Network Anomaly Detection Use Case

Federated Learning (FL) has become a ubiquitous approach for training machine learning models on decentralized data, addressing the myriad privacy concerns inherent in traditional centralized methods. However, the efficiency of FL depends on effective client selection and robust privacy preservation mechanisms. Inadequate client selection may lead to suboptimal model performance, while insufficient privacy measures risk exposing sensitive data. This paper proposes a client selection framework for FL that integrates differential privacy and fault tolerance. Our adaptive approach dynamically adjusts the number of selected clients based on model performance and system constraints, ensuring privacy through calibrated noise addition. We evaluate our method on a network anomaly detection use case using the UNSW-NB15 and ROAD datasets. Results show up to a 7% increase in accuracy and a 25% reduction in training time compared to FedL2P. Moreover, we highlight the trade-offs between privacy budgets and model performance, with higher privacy budgets reducing noise and improving accuracy. Our fault tolerance mechanism, while causing a slight performance drop, enhances robustness to client failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney U tests confirms the significance of these improvements (p < 0.05).

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗
DOE OSTI2026

An improved dataset for predicting mammal infecting viruses from genetic sequence information

There have been several attempts to develop machine learning (ML) models to identify human infecting viruses from their genomic sequences, with varying degrees of success. Direct comparison between models is problematic, because these models are typically trained and evaluated on different datasets with alternative data splitting schemes, features, and model performance metrics. In this paper we present a standardized dataset of mammal infecting and non-infecting viral pathogens, refined from the previous work of Mollentze et al. to include the latest literature evidence, roughly doubling the number of curated host-virus records available to the community, and new host target labels, primate and mammal. The new host labels were included for several reasons, including previous reports that classification performance is better at broader taxonomic ranks and the idea that there may be more data for primate infection that might serve as a suitable proxy for zoonotic potential and avoidance of false positives for human infection due to absence of evidence. On this dataset, we report the performance of eight machine learning models for predicting mammal-infecting viruses from their genomic sequences. We find that randomly assigning cases in our improved dataset to training/testing sets, when compared to the original assignments into training/testing in Mollentze et al., increases the overall average ROC AUC of prediction of human infection from 0.663 ± 0.070 to 0.784 ± 0.013, consistent with the reduction in phylogenetic distance between train and test sets (relative entropy change from 3.00 to 0.08). The broadest host category of mammal infection can be predicted most reliably at 0.850 ± 0.020. We share our improved dataset and code to enable standardized comparisons of machine learning methods to predict human host infections. Overall, we have presented preliminary evidence that classification of virus host infection is more tractable at higher taxonomic ranks, that unsurprisingly reducing the phylogenetic distance between training and test sets can improve predictive performance, that peptide kmer features appear to be harmful to out of sample model performance, and we are left with the question of whether models for virus host prediction can reasonably be expected to perform well in out of sample scenarios given the likelihood that viruses do not share a common ancestor. Consistent with this concern, when the data is resampled such that there is no overlap between viral families in training and test sets (relative entropy > 24), models perform no better than random chance at prediction of human infection regardless of whether kmers are included (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.08) or not (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.04).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Implementing a neural network interatomic model with performance portability for emerging exascale architectures

The two main thrusts of computational science are increasingly accurate predictions and faster calculations; to this end, the zeitgeist in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations is pursuing machine learned and data driven interatomic models, e.g. neural network potentials, and novel hardware architectures, e.g. GPUs. Current implementations of neural network potentials are orders of magnitude slower than traditional interatomic models and while looming exascale computing offers the ability to run large, accurate simulations with these models, achieving portable performance for MD with new and varied exascale hardware requires rethinking traditional algorithms, using novel data structures, and library solutions. We re-implement a neural network interatomic model in CabanaMD, an MD proxy application, built on libraries developed for performance portability. Our implementation shows significantly improved thread scaling in this complex kernel as compared to a current LAMMPS implementation, across both strong and weak scaling. Our single-source solution enables simulations up to 20 million atoms on a single CPU node and 4 million atoms with improved performance on a single GPU. Furthermore, we also explore parallelism and data layout choices (using flexible data structures called AoSoAs) and their effect on performance, seeing up to ~50% and ~5% improvements in performance on a GPU by choosing the right level of parallelism and data layout respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intelligent Manufacturing Support: Specialized LLMs for Composite Material Processing and Equipment Operation

Engineering educational curriculum and standards cover many material and manufacturing options. However, engineers and designers are often unfamiliar with certain composite materials or manufacturing techniques. Large language models (LLMs) could potentially bridge the gap. Their capacity to store and retrieve data from large databases provides them with a breadth of knowledge across disciplines. However, their generalized knowledge base can lack targeted, industry-specific knowledge. To this end, we present two LLM-based applications based on the GPT-4 architecture: (1) The Composites Guide: a system that provides expert knowledge on composites material and connects users with research and industry professionals who can provide additional support and (2) The Equipment Assistant: a system that provides guidance for manufacturing tool operation and material characterization. By combining the knowledge of general AI models with industry-specific knowledge, both applications are intended to provide more meaningful information for engineers. In this paper, we discuss the development of the applications and evaluate it through a benchmark and two informal user studies. The benchmark analysis uses the Rouge and Bertscore metrics to evaluate our models’ performance against GPT-4o. The results show that GPT-4o and the proposed models perform similarly or better on the ROUGE and BERTScore metrics. The two user studies supplement this quantitative evaluation by asking experts to provide qualitative and open-ended feedback about our model’s performance on a set of domain-specific questions. The results of both studies highlight a potential for more detailed and specific responses with the Composites Guide and the Equipment Assistant.

Kapoor, Gunnika [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2021

EPIsembleVis: A geo-visual analysis and comparison of the prediction ensembles of multiple COVID-19 models

In this work, we present EPIsembleVis, a web-based comparative visual analysis tool for evaluating the consistency of multiple COVID-19 prediction models. Our approach analyzes a collection of COVID-19 predictions from different epidemiological models as an ensemble and utilizes two metrics to quantify model performance. These metrics include (a) prediction uncertainty (represented as the dispersion of predictions in each ensemble) and (b) prediction error (calculated by comparing individual model predictions with the recorded data). Through an interactive visual interface, our approach provides a data-driven workflow for (a) selecting and constructing the COVID-19 model prediction ensemble based on the spatiotemporal overlap of available predictions of multiple epidemiological models, (b) quantifying the model performance using both the uncertainty of each model prediction ensemble, and the error of each ensemble member that represents individual model predictions, and (c) visualizing the spatiotemporal variability in the projection performance of individual models using a suite of novel ensemble visualization techniques, such as the data availability map, a spatiotemporal textured-tile calendar, multivariate rose chart, and time-series leaflet glyph. We demonstrate the capability of our ensemble visual interface through a case study that investigates the performance of weekly COVID-19 predictions, which are provided through the COVID-19 Forecast Hub UMass-Amherst Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence [47] for the United States and United States Territories. The EPIsembleVis tool is implemented using open-source web technologies and adaptive system design, rendering it interoperable with Elasticsearch and Kibana for automatically ingesting COVID-19 predictions from online repositories, and it is generalizable for analyzing worldwide projections from more epidemiological models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the anisotropic grain boundaries and surfaces of α -U via molecular dynamics

Alloys based on uranium-zirconium are gaining renewed interest as fuels for the Versatile Test Reactor and a number of microreactor designs. Implementing metallic fuel in reactors creates the need for robust descriptive and predictive fuel performance modeling. Here, the current state of metallic fuel performance modeling relies on empirical equations derived from historical experiments, which may be unreliable when applied outside of their temperature, power, and composition phase space. One area where such data is lacking is the irradiation behavior of alpha -U, specifically tearing and porosity formation at the early stages of irradiation. While grain boundaries likely play a key role in this fuel behavior, relatively little is known about grain boundaries in alpha-U. Thus, we evaluate the grain boundary, surface energy, and work of adhesion of alpha -U utilizing molecular dynamics. Symmetric tilt grain boundaries (STGBs) are analyzed with the tilt plane oriented along each major crystallographic axis, for a total of eighty unique grain boundaries. The effect of temperature, tilt plane, and misorientation angle on interfacial energies are analyzed. The interfacial energies typically increase with temperature and there is significant variance as a function of misorientation angle, irrespective of the tilt plane. At 500 K, the average surface energy (1.23 J/m 2 ) is approximately 1.5 times the grain boundary energy (0.79 J/m 2 ), and the work of adhesion is approximately twice the grain boundary energy (1.68 J/m 2 ). Orientations for the likely formation of twins and likely failure planes are identified.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Flood Predictability in Taiwan through Coupled Atmospheric–Hydrological and High-Performance Hydrodynamic Models

Effective flood simulation capabilities can tremendously support early warning and disaster prevention. To examine the applicability of a fully physics-based and high-performance flood simulation and forecasting modeling framework for a flood-prone region in Taiwan, we conduct a numerical experiment that couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, WRF-Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), and the Two-Dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) to perform integrated rainfall, streamflow, and flood simulations. Furthermore, we first use the coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro (WWH) to predict rainfall and streamflow and then drive TRITON with the predicted streamflow hydrographs to simulate flood depth and inundation area. With the refined spatial resolution and parameterization, this framework can better predict rainfall with reasonable spatial patterns. Although WWH could overestimate the amount of rainfall in some areas, the uncertain rainfall–streamflow predictions produce reasonable flood maps able to pinpoint regions at risk of flooding. In terms of model efficiency, the graphics processing unit–based computation can yield a speed-up factor as high as ∼13 compared to the central processing unit–based computation, promoting the efficacy of the coupled modeling framework in practical real-time flood forecasting.

Coupled models↗
DOE OSTI2024

At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning

High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗