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DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of the HAE activity in the TJ-II stellarator using a Landau closure model

The aim of this study is to analyze the stability of helical Alfvén eigenmodes (HAEs) in TJ-II discharges and the stabilizing effect of the energetic particles generated by the neutral beam injector (NBI) on pressure gradient-driven modes (PGDMs). HAE and PGDM stability is studied using the linear version of the gyro-fluid code FAR3d and the continuous structure by the STELLGAP code. First, Alfvén eigenmode (AE) and PGDM activity observed in the experiments is reproduced by the simulations, identifying unstable m/n = 4/7 − 2/3 and 7/12 − 5/8 HAEs triggered around ρ = 0.66 showing a frequency of 209 and 204 kHz, respectively, as well as 5/3 PGDM. Next, a parametric study is performed with respect to the thermal ion density and iota profile in the middle-outer plasma region to verify the robustness of the simulation results with respect to the uncertainty of experimental profiles. The analysis confirms that experimental uncertainty does not cause large deviations in the simulation results, showing the destabilization of the same HAEs for all the configurations tested. The simulations also indicate the decay of the 5/3 PGDM growth rate as the energetic particle (EP) population in the plasma increases, consistent with the experiment. Stability analysis of the n = 3, 7, 11, n = 5, 9, 13, n = 6, 10, 14, and n = 8, 12 helical families is performed with respect to the NBI operational regime for different EP energies, β as well as deposition profiles. The most unstable configuration is the radially localized on-axis NBI operation (stiff EP density profile gradients nearby the magnetic axis). Using the simulation model that reproduces the observed Alfvén activity, we extend the study to analyze NBI performance within a theoretical framework. It shows that increasing NBI voltage (which raises EP energy) leads to a degradation in NBI performance for a given power (related to EP β and their density). To achieve better NBI operation, higher voltage must be balanced with lower injection power, ensuring stable AEs while keeping the same EP β.

Plasma confinement↗

DOE OSTI2024

Manufacturing of Fabric Electrodes using a High-Throughput Screening Platform for Redox Flow Batteries

The objective of this project is to establish a new manufacturing methodology with machine learning- based high-throughput screening for the design and development of hierarchical structured, high-performance fabric electrodes for redox flow batteries (RFBs). The end goal of the project is to design and manufacture fabric electrodes for RFB applications that can provide 250 mA/cm2 current density operation for 100-cycles with 80% average energy efficiency. This was accomplished by first examining the structure-performance-property linkages of the electrodes provided by our partner, AvCarb. The electrodes’ microstructure was characterized by determining their pore size distribution, tortuosity, specific surface area, and porosity. The ohmic, charge transfer and mass transfer resistances were then calculated using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. Carbon cloth electrodes showed the greatest resistance, which was dominated by charge transfer resistance, which we believe is related to the surface functionalization. Full cell cycling was used in order to determine the area specific resistance and energy efficiency of the cells. All of this experimental data and the results of the mathematical model (to increase the amount of inputs with parametric sweeping) were used to develop a machine learning-based model for the design of high-performance fabric electrodes. Using the results from the machine learning tool, optimized electrodes were fabricated by AvCarb. The ohmic, charge transfer and mass transfer resistances for these new electrodes were measured, and both performed better than any of the initial samples which had been provided by AvCarb.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical modeling of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter structural loadings and power performances

Here, this study presents theoretical formulations to evaluate the fundamental parameters and performance characteristics of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) device. Employing a flat plate assumption and potential flow formulation in elliptical coordinates, closed-form equations for the added mass, radiation damping, and excitation forces/torques in the relevant pitch-pitch and surge-pitch directions of motion are developed and used to calculate the system's response amplitude operator and the forces and moments acting on the foundation. The model is benchmarked against numerical simulations using WAMIT and WEC-Sim, showcasing excellent agreement. The sensitivity of plate thickness on the analytical hydrodynamic solutions is investigated over several thickness-to-width ratios ranging from 1:80 to 1:10. The results show that as the thickness of the benchmark OSWEC increases, the deviation of the analytical hydrodynamic coefficients from the numerical solutions grows from 3% to 25%. Differences in the excitation forces and torques, however, are contained within 12%. While the flat plate assumption is a limitation of the proposed analytical model, the error is within a reasonable margin for use in the design space exploration phase before a higher-fidelity (and thus more computationally expensive) model is employed. A parametric study demonstrates the ability of the analytical model to quickly sweep over a domain of OSWEC dimensions, illustrating the analytical model's utility in the early phases of design.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI DR2 results. II. Measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations and cosmological constraints

We present baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from more than 14 million galaxies and quasars drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2), based on three years of operation. For cosmology inference, these galaxy measurements are combined with DESI Lyman-𝛼 forest BAO results presented in a companion paper (M. Abdul-Karim et al., companion paper, Phys. Rev. D 112, 083514 2025.). The DR2 BAO results are consistent with DESI DR1 and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and their distance-redshift relationship matches those from recent compilations of supernovae (SNe) over the same redshift range. The results are well described by a flat Λ cold dark matter (Λ⁢CDM) model, but the parameters preferred by BAO are in mild, 2.3⁢𝜎 tension with those determined from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), although the DESI results are consistent with the acoustic angular scale 𝜃 * that is well measured by Planck. This tension is alleviated by dark energy with a time-evolving equation of state parametrized by 𝑤0 and 𝑤𝑎, which provides a better fit to the data, with a favored solution in the quadrant with 𝑤 0 >−1 and 𝑤 𝑎 <0. This solution is preferred over Λ ⁢CDM at 3.1⁢𝜎 for the combination of DESI BAO and CMB data. When also including SNe, the preference for a dynamical dark energy model over Λ⁢ CDM ranges from 2.8 − 4.2⁢𝜎 depending on which SNe sample is used. We present evidence from other data combinations which also favor the same behavior at high significance. From the combination of DESI and CMB we derive 95% upper limits on the sum of neutrino masses, finding ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.064 eV assuming Λ ⁢CDM and ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.16 eV in the 𝑤0⁢𝑤𝑎 model. Unless there is an unknown systematic error associated with one or more datasets, it is clear that Λ⁢ CDM is being challenged by the combination of DESI BAO with other measurements and that dynamical dark energy offers a possible solution.

Baryon acoustic oscillations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Five Year Comparison of Mixing Height Determinations at the Savannah River Site

Air quality dispersion modeling is performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) to demonstrate compliance with applicable regulations. The AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) modeling system is an EPA recommended model for air quality applications with a data preprocessor (AERMET) to incorporate meteorological data collected on site. AERMET parameterizes or calculates meteorological variables that are not directly measured onsite. One of the parameters estimated by AERMET is the atmospheric mixing height. While the mixing height is not currently a measurement input into AERMET, SRS has the capability to measure the local mixing height. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) operates a Vaisala CL31 Lidar Ceilometer which estimates mixing height from aerosol backscatter. This study compares the parameterized mixing height from AERMET to the ceilometer estimated mixing height for the current regulatory period at SRS incorporating data from 2015-2019. Results from this study showed the average daily minimum values (morning) from AERMET were an order of magnitude lower than the commonly used Holzworth (1972) method and the ceilometer estimated mixing heights. Additionally, on average, the ceilometer exhibited a daily maximum mixing height value that occurred 1-3 hours later than the AERMET estimated maximum. This difference is likely due to the nighttime atmospheric mixing height assumptions and calculations used by AERMET. The AERMET algorithm cuts off mixing height growth at sunset while the ceilometer data show ongoing evening convection typical of the southeastern United States. These results suggest that the AERMET parametrization scheme assumptions may not be representative of a forested landscape and evening convection which could account for more mixing overnight. The results obtained in this study are significant for air dispersion modeling applications for regulatory purposes and worker safety. Mixing height can impact model estimated pollutant concentrations. A greater mixing height will provide more volume for pollutant dispersion. This report documents efforts to quantify the dependence of mixing height inputs toward a conservative estimated pollutant concentration.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generalized entropy of gravitational fluctuations

The corrections to holographic entanglement entropy from bulk quantum fields in a classical gravitational background are now well understood. They lead, in particular, to unitary Page curves for evaporating black holes. However, the correct treatment of quantum fluctuations of the metric, including graviton excitations, is a longstanding problem. We provide a gauge-invariant prescription for the generalized entropy of gravitons in anti-de Sitter space in terms of areas and bulk entanglement entropy, generalizing the quantum extremal surface prescription to accommodate fluctuations in the semiclassical spacetime geometry. This task requires a careful treatment of the area operator on the graviton Hilbert space and the definition of a “quantum extremal gauge” in which the extremal surface is unperturbed. It also requires us to determine the correct vacuum modular Hamiltonian for the graviton field, which we fix by requiring that it doesn’t contain a boundary term in extremal gauge. We check our prescription with an explicit computation of the vacuum-subtracted generalized entropy of states containing a graviton in an AdS-Rindler background. Our results exactly match vacuum-subtracted von Neumann entropies for stress-tensor excited states in holographic conformal field theory with d > 2 dimensions. We also use covariant phase space techniques to give a partial proof of our prescription when the entanglement wedge for the background spacetime has a bifurcate Killing horizon. Along the way, we identify a class of perturbative graviton states that have parametrically larger generalized entropy, in the small G N expansion, than any low-energy excitations of an ordinary quantum field.

1/N expansion↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Spectroscopic Determination of Exchange Coupling, Zero-Field Splitting, and g-Matrices in Radical-Bridged Dinuclear Fe(III) Complexes

When the energy gap, Δ, between the lowest-lying spin manifolds within a spin-exchange coupled molecule approaches Δ/k B ≈ 300 K, the traditional temperature-dependence (T < 400 K) of the molar magnetic susceptibility is not always a reliable way to obtain a good estimate of intramolecular exchange couplings. We develop a spectroscopic approach capable of accurately parametrizing complex magnetic Hamiltonians by exploiting the separation of the anisotropy and exchange energy scales in strongly coupled magnetic molecules. Specifically, we combine inelastic neutron scattering, high-frequency electron paramagnetic resonance, far-infrared magneto-spectroscopy and magnetometry, and obtain detailed information about the magnetic properties of a series of diiron complexes derived from [[Fe(cth)] 2 (dxbq)] 3+ (H 2 dxbq: 2,5-dihydroxy-1,4-benzoquinone (x = h) or 3,6-dichloro-2,5-dihydroxy-1,4-benzoquinone (x = c), cth: 5,5,7,12,12,14-hexamethyl-1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane). Well-isolated S = 9/2 ground states emerge due to strong direct antiferromagnetic exchange between the Fe 3+ centers (S = 5/2) and the radical bridging benzoquinone ligand (S = 1/2). The specific sensitivities and transition selection rules of the applied methods allow us to determine the parameters of the microscopic Hamiltonian including exchange coupling, fourth-order Stevens operators and g-factors. Our methodology is directly portable to other strongly coupled molecular compounds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pion and kaon PDFs from lattice QCD via large momentum effective theory and short-distance factorization

In this paper, we present a first-principles lattice-QCD calculation of the unpolarized quark PDF for the pion and the kaon. The lattice data rely on matrix elements calculated for boosted mesons coupled to non-local operators containing a Wilson line. The calculations on this lattice ensemble correspond to two degenerate light, a strange, and a charm quark (𝑁 𝑓 = 2 + 1 + 1), using maximally twisted mass fermions with a clover term. The lattice volume is 32 3 × 64, with a lattice spacing of 0.0934 fm, and a pion mass of 260 MeV. Matrix elements are calculated for hadron boosts of |𝑃 3 | = 0, 0.41, 0.83, 1.25, 1.66, and 2.07 GeV. To match lattice QCD results to their light-cone counterparts, we employ two complementary frameworks: the large-momentum effective theory (LaMET) and the short-distance factorization (SDF). Using these approaches in parallel, we also test the lattice data to identify methodology-driven systematics. Results are presented for the standard quark PDFs, as well as the valence sector. Beyond obtaining the PDFs, we also explore the possibility of extracting information on SU(3) flavor-symmetry-breaking effects. For LaMET, we also parametrize the momentum dependence to obtain the infinite-momentum PDFs. Since the present calculation is performed on a single ensemble at a pion mass of 260 MeV and fixed lattice spacing, the uncertainties reported are statistical only, and systematic uncertainties remain to be addressed in future multi-ensemble studies.

Miller, Joshua [Temple University, Philadelphia, P↗

DOE OSTI2025

Parametric Optimization of Nanostructured Alumina Forming Austenitic Alloys

Alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) alloys provide excellent oxidation resistance through the formation of a stable alumina scale, but their relatively high Ni content might limit application in core structural components because of helium generation and swelling under irradiation. Increasing the density of nanoscale features in the microstructure is a promising route to improve sink strength and mitigate these effects. Conventional oxide dispersion–strengthened (ODS) steels achieve this through mechanical alloying (MA), but the approach is costly and difficult to scale. In this milestone, additive manufacturing was applied as an alternative pathway to fabricate nanostructured AFA (NAFA) alloys with dual precipitation of oxides and nitrides enabled by reactive atmosphere processing. In FY25, two compositions, NAFA-1 (AFA-05) and NAFA-2, were produced and compared. Both alloys achieved densities above 99% of theoretical values, but NAFA-2 exhibited microcracking associated with Nb-rich intermetallic formation, indicating the need for further chemistry optimization. Nitrogen and oxygen uptake was confirmed on selected builds, demonstrating the intended dual-precipitate dispersion. Mechanical testing showed that AM-processed NAFA alloys exceed conventionally produced ODS steels in high-temperature tensile strength and fracture toughness. Preliminary Cu ion irradiation results further suggest improved resistance compared to wrought austenitic alloys. While the current alloys are promising for their compatibility in high-temperature air or liquid Pb environments, modifications to composition will be required for long-term operation in high-temperature impure sodium systems. Future work will focus on refining alloy chemistry to suppress laser powder bed fusion–induced cracking and scaling production to reactor-relevant dimensions using directed energy deposition as a pathway toward net-shape cladding fabrication.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intracore Natural Circulation Study in the High Temperature Test Facility

The development of the Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor is a significant milestone in advanced nuclear reactor technology. One of the concerns for the reactor’s safe operation is the effects of a loss-of-flow accident (LOFA) where the coolant circulators are tripped, and forced coolant flow through the core is lost. Depending on the steam generator placement, loop or intracore natural circulation develops to help transfer heat from the core to the reactor cavity, cooling system. This paper investigates the fundamental physical phenomena associated with intracore coolant natural circulation flow in a one-sixth Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the Oregon State University High Temperature Test Facility (OSU HTTF) following a loss-of-flow accident transient. This study employs conjugate heat transfer and steady-state flow along with an SST k-ω turbulence model to characterize the phenomenon of core channel-to-channel natural convection. Previous studies have revealed the importance of complex flow distribution in the inlet and outlet plenums with the potential to generate hot coolant jets. For this reason, complete upper and lower plenum volumes are included in the analyzed computational domain. CFD results also include parametric studies performed for a mesh sensitivity analysis, generated using the STAR-CCM+ software. The resulting channel axial velocities and flow directions support the test facility scaling analysis and similarity group distortions calculation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Compositional Optimization in Misspecified Regimes

With a manifold growth in the scale and intricacy of systems, the challenges of parametric misspecification become pronounced. These concerns are further exacerbated in compositional settings, which emerge in problems complicated by modeling risk and robustness. In “Data-Driven Compositional Optimization in Misspecified Regimes,” the authors consider the resolution of compositional stochastic optimization problems, plagued by parametric misspecification. In considering settings where such misspecification may be resolved via a parallel learning process, the authors develop schemes that can contend with diverse forms of risk, dynamics, and nonconvexity. They provide asymptotic and rate guarantees for unaccelerated and accelerated schemes for convex, strongly convex, and nonconvex problems in a two-level regime with extensions to the multilevel setting. Surprisingly, the nonasymptotic rate guarantees show no degradation from the rate statements obtained in a correctly specified regime and the schemes achieve optimal (or near-optimal) sample complexities for general T-level strongly convex and nonconvex compositional problems.

Business & Economics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated modeling of advanced tokamaks for tearing mode avoidance on DIII-D

Understanding the physics of the onset and evolution of tearing modes (TMs) in tokamak plasmas is crucial for high-performance steady-state operations. The onset condition of (m,n) = (2,1) tearing stability, $Δ′$ > $Δ_c^′$> 0, has been studied in DIII-D steady-state hybrid discharges with accurate equilibrium reconstruction and well-measured plasma profiles. Here, m is the poloidal mode number and n is the toroidal mode number. The onset of n = 1 TMs is carefully identified using the Mirnov array to determine in-phase signals for the onset time and using electron cyclotron emission measurements to trace back from the saturated island width in the experiments for both initial island width and its growth rate. The tearing stability index $Δ′$ at TM onset is calculated in multiple ways, using the modified Rutherford equation and using the PEST-III or resistive DCON magnetohydrodynamic codes, and the results are in reasonable agreement with each other. The calculated $Δ′$ is compared with an analytical formula of the tearing stability threshold $Δ_c^′$ to determine the condition for the mode onset, $Δ′$ > $Δ_c^′$. Finally, the local gradient effect of the plasma current and the pressure profiles on the tearing stability is investigated in terms of the difference between $Δ′$ and $Δ_c^′$ through a series of modeled equilibria with the parametric variations. A database of experimental mode instability onsets is compatible with the simulated regions of instability obtained from the parametric variations.

Linear stability analysis↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hofmann Stability Charts Revisited for PIP-II: From Classical Theory to Assumption-Free and ML-Driven Maps

The Hofmann stability chart remains a standard for visualizing parametric resonances in space-charge–dominated linacs, but its use typically relies on non-oscillatory Vlasov dispersion relations with simplifying assumptions (continuous focusing, KV phase space, linear optics, limited transverse–longitudinal coupling). We revisit the chart for the PIP-II linac along three tracks. (1) We reproduce the conventional maps in the (νz/νx, νx/ν0x) plane for relevant εz/εx, providing a validated reference. (2) We remove key assumptions by deriving stability surfaces directly from multi-particle tracking with realistic lattice discreteness, RF defocusing, solenoid/quad optics, and bunched-beam dynamics; local tunes and early-time growth rates are estimated from envelope oscillations and projected to the same coordinates. These assumption-reduced maps recover the canonical stopbands while revealing shifts and broadenings driven by tune modulation, non-KV distributions, and transverse–longitudinal coupling at PIP-II intensities. (3) We train a compact machine-learning surrogate that emulates the growth surface from zero-current optics, tune depression, emittance ratio, bunching factor, and selected lattice descriptors, enabling rapid scans and online working-point selection. We compare the three representations on representative PIP-II sections and discuss implications for commissioning guard bands, resonance avoidance, and routine operations.

Pathak, Abhishek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000021704208↗

DOE OSTI2025

An alternative method of changing the pulse duration in a stretcher-compressor pair by changing the gas pressure in the compressor

The relatively narrow bandwidth of neodymium glass requires a much larger stretch ratio of chirped-pulse amplification (CPA) systems. This factor, together with a large incident angle on the gratings, makes glass CPA systems extremely sensitive to the refractive index of the medium in the stretcher-compressor. High sensitivity of the stretcher-compressor pair for hybrid optical parametric chirped-pulse amplification and an Nd:glass laser to the refractive index was demonstrated in air, vacuum, and carbon dioxide, and a pulse duration close to the transform limit was reached. An alternative way to change the pulse duration was proposed. The pulse duration from the best compression of 500 fs to 30 ps was smoothly varied by changing the air pressure from 10 -6 Torr to 1 atm in the compressor and up to 52 ps in carbon dioxide, while the stretcher and compressor remained untouched. Finally, excellent agreement of the measured pulse duration with theoretical calculations was demonstrated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

SOLPS-ITER modeling of a dedicated divertor for negative triangularity operation on DIII-D

The design of a new dedicated divertor for negative triangularity (NT) operation on DIII-D with neutral baffles and pumping is informed by SOLPS-ITER transport modeling. This dedicated NT divertor is the latest step in a progression of NT shapes with various divertor characteristics explored on DIII-D, including NT shapes at reduced triangularity and a campaign with stronger shaping that included new armored components on the outboard side. SOLPS simulations played a key role in these divertor designs. Interpretive simulations, using cross-field diffusivities constrained by experimental data in the NT Shelf shape were used to inform the design of the 2023 armor campaign components. A similar procedure used armor campaign data to predict conditions for the dedicated NT divertor. The predictive simulations were used to assess the divertor fluxes, detachment threshold, pumped flux, and neutral leakage. For the dedicated NT divertor, SOLPS simulations and two-point-modeling were used to show the relative impact of magnetic topology (mainly longer connection length) and divertor closure on the divertor conditions relative to the armor campaign. It is predicted that the dedicated NT divertor reaches detachment (measured by target ion flux rollover) at a lower upstream density (≈(1.75−−2.4)×1⁢019m−3) as compared to the armor campaign shape. For the preliminary design geometry, divertor closure reduces the neutral leakage by ≈10%. Parametric optimization indicating further ≈20%–60% improvement in the leakage flux and recycled flux crossing the pump entrance is possible for relatively minor changes to the divertor and baffle layout.

Lore, Jeremy [ORNL] (ORCID:000000029192465X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Proton isovector helicity PDF at NNLO and the twist-3 moment $\tilde{d}$ 2 from lattice QCD at physical quark masses

We present a lattice quantum chromodynamics calculation of the 𝑥-dependent isovector quark helicity parton distribution function (PDF) of the proton in the large momentum effective theory (LaMET) framework. Through operator product expansion (OPE) we also extract the $\tilde{d}$ 2 moment of the twist-3 PDF 𝑔 𝑇 ⁡(𝑥) for the first time in the $\overline{MS}$ scheme, which is proportional to the average color Lorentz force experienced by the quark in the proton. This calculation is performed on a lattice of spacing 𝑎 =0.076 fm at physical quark masses. The quasi-PDF matrix elements are measured in proton states boosted to momenta 𝑃 𝑧 ={0,0.25,1.02,1.53} GeV. We first extract the lowest few helicity PDF moments from the renormalization-group (RG) invariant ratios of the matrix elements with OPE. Combined with the matrix elements relevant for 𝑔 𝑇 ⁡(𝑥), we obtain $\tilde{d}$$^{u-d}_2$⁡(2 GeV) =0.0024⁢(46) at next-to-leading order in $\overline{MS}$. Then, the helicity quasi-PDF matrix elements are renormalized in the hybrid scheme with linear renormalon resummation and Fourier transformed to the 𝑥-space after an asymptotic extrapolation. The quasi-PDF is perturbatively matched to the $\overline{MS}$ PDF with RG and threshold resummations at next-to-leading power and next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracies. After resummations, we determine the PDF in the region 𝑥 ∈[0.25,0.75]. The end-point regions are then parametrized, combined with the LaMET prediction at moderate 𝑥, and fitted to the short-distance matrix elements in coordinate space.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD CESIUM AND STRONTIUM CANISTERS DURING SIMULATED LOADING

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies within a canister and overpack for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to make pretest numerical predictions for the behavior of the heated canister during the simulated radiolytic decay heat testing, which simulates the dry storage system during loading operations. The simulated radiolytic decay heat test is planned for mid-2024 in a configuration that includes the heater assembly, overpack, and canister, but with the lids removed to allow loading cesium and strontium capsules into the canister. One of the goals of the test is to evaluate the thermal behavior of the canister and overpack assembly in the ambient air of the test facility, which will provide data critical to validating the thermal models and understanding how the HLC will perform as a system once deployed. To best approximate real-world conditions, the CFD model includes the full air volume of the mock-up truck bay the heated canister test will be performed in, enabling detailed investigation of how the heated canister affects airflow around it. Rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2028 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the simulated radiolytic decay heat test. A description of the heater assembly, canister, and overpack system is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was preformed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Carpenter-Graffy, Dina E.↗