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At least 145 records · Page 8

Measurements of Gas Bubble Size Distributions in Flowing Liquid Mercury

ABSTRACT Pressure waves created in liquid mercury pulsed spallation targets have been shown to induce cavitation damage on the target container. One way to mitigate such damage would be to absorb the pressure pulse energy into a dispersed population of small bubbles, however, measuring such a population in mercury is difficult since it is opaque and the mercury is involved in a turbulent flow. Ultrasonic measurements have been attempted on these types of flows, but the flow noise can interfere with the measurement, and the results are unverifiable and often unrealistic. Recently, a flow loop was built and operated at Oak Ridge National Labarotory to assess the capability of various bubbler designs to deliver an adequate population of bubbles to mitigate cavitation damage. The invented diagnostic technique involves flowing the mercury with entrained gas bubbles in a steady state through a horizontal piping section with a glass-window observation port located on the top. The mercury flow is then suddenly stopped and the bubbles are allowed to settle on the glass due to buoyancy. Using a bright-field illumination and a high-speed camera, the arriving bubbles are detected and counted, and then the images can be processed to determine the bubble populations. After using this technique to collect data on each bubbler, bubble size distributions were built for the purpose of quantifying bubbler performance, allowing the selection of the best bubbler options. This paper presents the novel procedure, photographic technique, sample visual results and some example bubble size distributions. The best bubbler options were subsequently used in proton beam irradiation tests performed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The cavitation damage results from the irradiated test plates in contact with the mercury are available for correlation with the bubble populations. The most effective mitigating population can now be designed into prototypical geometries for implementation into an actual SNS target.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Reflectance of vegetation, soil, and water

The author has identified the following significant results. Reflectance of crop residues, that are important in reducing wind and water erosion, was more often different from bare soil in band 4 than in bands 5, 6, or 7. The plant parameters leaf area index, plant population, plant cover, and plant height explained 95.9 percent of the variation in band 7 (reflective infrared) digital counts for cotton and 78.2 percent of the variation in digital counts for the combined crops sorghum and corn; hence, measurable plant parameters explain most of the signal variation recorded for corpland. Leaf area index and plant population are both highly correlated with crop yields; since plant population can be readily measured (or possibly inferred from seeding rates), it is useful measurement for calibrating ERTS-type MSS digital data in terms of yield.

Wiegand, C. L.↗

Performance Evaluation of Whole-Body Counting Facilities in the Marshall Islands (2014-2017)

In 1998, the United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) began a series of initiatives to address the long-term radiological surveillance needs of resettling populations exposed to elevated levels of residual fallout at the former U.S. nuclear test sites within the Marshall Islands. With support from the local atoll governments, three whole-body counting facilities were established on Enewetak, Rongelap, and Majuro Atolls, and tasked with monitoring the health and safety of the populations living there. Each facility is operated and maintained by Marshallese technicians. Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) are responsible for equipment maintenance, training of Marshallese technicians, data quality assurance and for implementing performance testing measures. In addition, LLNL maintains a whole-body counting training facility which mirrors the facilities operating in the Marshall Islands.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

ULTRAVIOLET OBSERVATIONS OF THE GLOBULAR CLUSTER M10 FROM HST AND GALEX: THE BSS POPULATION

We present a combination of high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope and wide-field ground-based and Galaxy Evolution Explorer data of the Galactic globular cluster M10 (NGC 6254). By using this large data set, we determined the center of gravity of the cluster and we built its density profile from star counts over its entire radial extension. We find that the density profile is well reproduced by a single-mass King model with structural parameters c = 1.41 and r{sub c} = 41''. We also studied the blue straggler star (BSS) population and its radial distribution. We count a total number of 120 BSS within the tidal radius. Their radial distribution is bimodal: highly peaked in the cluster center, decreasing at intermediate distances, and rising again outward. We discuss these results in the context of the dynamical clock scheme presented by Ferraro et al. and of recent results about the radial distribution of binary systems in this cluster.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dose and dose rate effects of whole-body proton irradiation on leukocyte populations and lymphoid organs: part I

The goal of part I of this study was to evaluate the effects of whole-body proton irradiation on lymphoid organs and specific leukocyte populations. C57BL/6 mice were exposed to the entry region of the proton Bragg curve to total doses of 0.5 gray (Gy), 1.5 Gy, and 3.0 Gy, each delivered at a low dose rate (LDR) of 1 cGy/min and high dose rate (HDR) of 80 cGy/min. Non-irradiated and 3 Gy HDR gamma-irradiated groups were included as controls. At 4 days post-irradiation, highly significant radiation dose-dependent reductions were observed in the mass of both lymphoid organs and the numbers of leukocytes and T (CD3(+)), T helper (CD3(+)/CD4(+)), T cytotoxic (CD3(+)/CD8(+)), and B (CD19(+)) cells in both blood and spleen. A less pronounced dose effect was noted for natural killer (NK1.1(+) NK) cells in spleen. Monocyte, but not granulocyte, counts in blood were highly dose-dependent. The numbers for each population generally tended to be lower with HDR than with LDR radiation; a significant dose rate effect was found in the percentages of T and B cells, monocytes, and granulocytes and in CD4(+):CD8(+) ratios. These data indicate that mononuclear cell response to the entry region of the proton Bragg curve is highly dependent upon the total dose and that dose rate effects are evident with some cell types. Results from gamma- and proton-irradiated groups (both at 3 Gy HDR) were similar, although proton-irradiation gave consistently lower values in some measurements.

Non-NASA Center↗

Strong lensing of high-energy neutrinos

Here, we consider the effects of strong gravitational lensing by galaxy-scale deflectors on the observations of high-energy ( E $\gg$ GeV ) neutrinos (HENs). For HENs at cosmological distances, the optical depth for multiple imaging is ~10 –3 , implying that while we do not expect any multiply imaged HENs with present samples, next-generation experiments should be able to detect the first such event. We then present the distribution of expected time delays to aid in the identification of such events, in combination with directional and energy information. In order to assist in the evaluation of HEN production mechanisms, we illustrate how lensing affects the observed number counts for a variety of intrinsic luminosity functions of the source population. Finally, we see that the lensing effects on the cosmic neutrino background flux calculation would be negligible by taking kiloparsec-scale jets as an example.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Geomorphology and Geology of the Southwestern Margaritifer Sinus and Argyre Regions of Mars. Part 2: Crater Size-frequency Distribution Curves and Geomorphic Unit Ages

In assessing the relative ages of the geomorphic/geologic units, crater counts of the entire unit or nearly the entire unit were made and summed in order to get a more accurate value than obtainable by counts of isolated sections of each unit. Cumulative size-frequency counts show some interesting relationships. Most of the units show two distinct crater populations with a flattening out of the distribution curve at and below 10 km diameter craters. Above this crater size the curves for the different units diverge most notably. In general, the variance may reflect the relative ages of these units. At times, however, in the larger crater size range, these curves can overlap and cross on another. Also the error bars at these larger sizes are broader (and thus more suspect), since counts of larger craters show more scatter, whereas the unit areas remain constant. Occasional clusters of relatively large craters within a given unit, particularly one of limited areal extent, can affect the curve so that the unit might seem to be older than units which it overlies or cuts.

Parker, T. J.↗

Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy

In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A high-density, high-channel count, multiplexed μECoG array for auditory-cortex recordings

Our understanding of the large-scale population dynamics of neural activity is limited, in part, by our inability to record simultaneously from large regions of the cortex. Here, we validated the use of a large-scale active microelectrode array that simultaneously records 196 multiplexed micro-electrocortigraphical (μECoG) signals from the cortical surface at a very high density (1,600 electrodes/cm 2 ). We compared μECoG measurements in auditory cortex using a custom “active” electrode array to those recorded using a conventional “passive” μECoG array. Both of these array responses were also compared with data recorded via intrinsic optical imaging, which is a standard methodology for recording sound-evoked cortical activity. Custom active μECoG arrays generated more veridical representations of the tonotopic organization of the auditory cortex than current commercially available passive μECoG arrays. Furthermore, the cortical representation could be measured efficiently with the active arrays, requiring as little as 13.5 s of neural data acquisition. Next, we generated spectrotemporal receptive fields from the recorded neural activity on the active μECoG array and identified functional organizational principles comparable to those observed using intrinsic metabolic imaging and single-neuron recordings. Furthermore, this new electrode array technology has the potential for large-scale, temporally precise monitoring and mapping of the cortex, without the use of invasive penetrating electrodes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

THE QUEST FOR DUSTY STAR-FORMING GALAXIES AT HIGH REDSHIFT z ≳ 4

We exploit the continuity equation approach and “main-sequence” star formation timescales to show that the observed high abundance of galaxies with stellar masses ≳ a few 10{sup 10} M {sub ⊙} at redshift z ≳ 4 implies the existence of a galaxy population featuring large star formation rates (SFRs) ψ ≳ 10{sup 2} M {sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} in heavily dust-obscured conditions. These galaxies constitute the high-redshift counterparts of the dusty star-forming population already surveyed for z ≲ 3 in the far-IR band by the Herschel Space Observatory . We work out specific predictions for the evolution of the corresponding stellar mass and SFR functions out to z ∼ 10, determining that the number density at z ≲ 8 for SFRs ψ ≳ 30 M {sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} cannot be estimated relying on the UV luminosity function alone, even when standard corrections for dust extinction based on the UV slope are applied. We compute the number counts and redshift distributions (including galaxy-scale gravitational lensing) of this galaxy population, and show that current data from the AzTEC - LABOCA , SCUBA-2 , and ALMA - SPT surveys are already addressing it. We demonstrate how an observational strategy based on color preselection in the far-IR or (sub-)millimeter band with Herschel and SCUBA-2 , supplemented by photometric data from on-source observations with ALMA , can allow us to reconstruct the bright end of the SFR functions out to z ≲ 8. In parallel, such a challenging task can be managed by exploiting current UV surveys in combination with (sub-)millimeter observations by ALMA and NIKA2 and/or radio observations by SKA and its precursors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Galaxy evolution and large-scale structure in the far-infrared. II - The IRAS faint source survey

The new IRAS Faint Source Survey data base is used to confirm the conclusion of Hacking et al. (1987) that the 60 micron source counts fainter than about 0.5 Jy lie in excess of predictions based on nonevolving model populations. The existence of an anisotropy between the northern and southern Galactic caps discovered by Rowan-Robinson et al. (1986) and Needham and Rowan-Robinson (1988) is confirmed, and it is found to extend below their sensitivity limit to about 0.3 Jy in 60 micron flux density. The count anisotropy at f(60) greater than 0.3 can be interpreted reasonably as due to the Local Supercluster; however, no one structure accounting for the fainter anisotropy can be easily identified in either optical or far-IR two-dimensional sky distributions. The far-IR galaxy sky distributions are considerably smoother than distributions from the published optical galaxy catalogs. It is likely that structure of the large size discussed here have been discriminated against in earlier studies due to insufficient volume sampling.

Lonsdale, Carol J.↗

Simulations of deep galaxy fields. 1: Monte Carlo simulations of optical and near-infrared counts

Monte Carlo simulations of three-dimensional galaxy distributions are performed, following the 1988 prescription of Chokshi & Wright, to study the photometric properties of evolving galaxy populations in the optical and near-infrared bands to high redshifts. In this paper, the first of a series, we present our baseline model in which galaxy numbers are conserved, and in which no explicit 'starburst' population is included. We use the model in an attempt to simultaneously fit published blue and near-infrared photometric and spectroscopic observations of deep fields. We find that our baseline models, with a formation redshift, z(sub f), of 1000, and H(sub 0) = 50, are able to reproduce the blue counts to b(sub j) = 22, independent of the value of Omega(sub 0), and also to provide a satisfactory fit to the observed blue-band redshift distributions, but for no value of Omega(sub 0) do we achieve an acceptable fit to the fainter blue counts. In the K band, we fit the number counts to the limit of the present-day surveys only for an Omega(sub 0) = 0 cosmology. We investigate the effect on the model fits of varying the cosmological parameters H(sub 0), the formation red-shift z(sub f), and the local luminosity function. Changing H(sub 0) does not improve the fits to the observations. However, reducing the epoch of a galaxy formation used in our simulations has a substantial effect. In particular, a model with z(sub f) approximately equal to 5 in a low Omega(sub 0) universe improves the fit to the faintest photometric blue data without any need to invoke a new population of galaxies, substantial merging, or a significant starburst galaxy population. For an Omega(sub 0) = 1 universe, however, reducing z(sub f) is less successful at fitting the blue-band counts and has little effect at all at K. Varying the parameters of the local luminosity function can also have a significant effect. In particular the steep low end slope of the local luminosity function of Franceschini et al. allows an acceptable fit to the b(sub j) less than or equal to 25 counts for Omega(sub 0) = 1, but is incompatible with Omega(sub 0) = 0.

Chokshi, Arati↗

Analyzing count data with measurement error

In this article, we analyze observed count data such as the number of defects in a steel product where the observed counts are the true counts measured with errors. We account for the measurement error by using a measurement error model based on a latent lognormal (LLN) distribution. We consider making inference about a single population (e.g., from samples of a production lot) and a regression model (e.g., from runs of a designed experiment), where the measurement system properties are known, that is, the parameters of the LLN distribution are known. Then, we consider simultaneous inference for the single population and regression model as well as the measurement system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with both simulated and real observed counts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A community-based evaluation of proximity to unconventional oil and gas wells, drinking water contaminants, and health symptoms in Ohio

Highlights: • We conducted a community-based study on unconventional oil and gas (UO&G) in Ohio. • We explored UO&G proximity in relation to water contamination and health symptoms. • Contaminant detection and concentrations decreased with greater distance to UO&G. • UO&G proximity was associated with increased general health symptoms (e.g. fatigue). • Communities near UO&G may be more likely to experience environmental health impacts. Over 4 million Americans live within 1.6 km of an unconventional oil and gas (UO&G) well, potentially placing them in the path of toxic releases. We evaluated relationships between residential proximity to UO&G wells and (1) water contamination and (2) health symptoms in an exploratory study. We analyzed drinking water samples from 66 Ohio households for 13 UO&G-related volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (e.g., benzene, disinfection byproducts [DBPs]), gasoline-range organics (GRO), and diesel-range organics. We interviewed participants about health symptoms and calculated metrics capturing proximity to UO&G wells. Based on multivariable logistic regression, odds of detection of bromoform and dibromochloromethane in surface water decreased significantly as distance to nearest UO&G well increased (odds ratios [OR]: 0.28–0.29 per km). Similarly, distance to nearest well was significantly negatively correlated with concentrations of GRO and toluene in ground water (r{sub Spearman}: −0.40 to −0.44) and with concentrations of bromoform and dibromochloromethane in surface water (r{sub Spearman}: −0.48 to −0.50). In our study population, those with higher inverse-distance-squared-weighted UO&G well counts within 5 km around the home were more likely to report experiencing general health symptoms (e.g. stress, fatigue) (OR: 1.52, 95%CI: 1.02–2.26). This exploratory study, though limited by small sample size and self-reported health symptoms, suggests that those in closer proximity to multiple UO&G wells may be more likely to experience environmental health impacts. Further, presence of brominated DBPs (linked to UO&G wastewater) raises the question of whether UO&G activities are impacting drinking water sources in the region. The findings from this study support expanded studies to advance knowledge of the potential for water quality and human health impacts; such studies could include a greater number of sampling sites, more detailed chemical analyses to examine source attribution, and objective health assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

THE YOUNG, THE OLD, AND THE DUSTY: STELLAR POPULATIONS OF ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEUS HOSTS

Studying the average properties of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) host stellar populations is an important step in understanding the role of AGNs in galaxy evolution and the processes that trigger and fuel AGN activity. Here we calculate model spectral energy distributions that include emission from the AGN, the host galaxy stellar population, and dust enshrouded star formation. Using the framework of cosmic X-ray background population synthesis modeling, the model AGN hosts are constrained using optical (B band) and near-infrared (J band, 3.6 {mu}m, 5.7 {mu}m, 8.0 {mu}m, and 24 {mu}m) luminosity functions and number counts. It is found that at z < 1, type 1 and type 2 AGN hosts have similar stellar populations, in agreement with the orientation-based unified model and indicative of secular evolution. At z > 1, type 2 AGN hosts are intrinsically different from type 1 AGN hosts, suggesting that the simple orientation-based unified model does not hold at z > 1. Also, it is found that if Compton thick (CT) AGNs evolve like less obscured type 2 AGNs, then, on average, CT AGN hosts are similar to type 2 AGN hosts; however, if CT obscuration is connected to an evolutionary stage of black hole growth, then CT AGN hosts will also be in specific evolutionary stages. Multi-wavelength selection criteria of CT AGNs are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exploring the bridge between A3556 and A3558 in the Shapley supercluster

Looking at the region connecting two clusters is a promising way to identify and study the Warm–Hot Intergalactic Medium. Observations show that the spectrum of the bridge between A3556 and A3558 has a stronger soft X-ray emission than the nearby region. Suzaku observations could not discriminate the origin of the extra emission. In this work we analyze a dedicated Chandra observation of the same target to identify point sources and characterize the background emission in the bridge. We find that the count number of the point sources is much higher than average field population (using CDFS 4 Ms as a reference). Moreover, the shape of the cumulative distribution resembles that of galaxy distribution suggesting that the point sources are galaxies in a filament. The Suzaku extra emission is well explained by the high abundance of point sources identified by Chandra. Furthermore, we used optical/IR observations of point sources in the same field to estimate the density of the putative filament as ρ≈150ρ{sub b}, below Suzaku sensitivity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Excess deaths reveal the true spatial, temporal and demographic impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ecuador

Accepted Background In early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020, from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods. Results Between 1 January and 23 September 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador was 36 402 [95% confidence interval (CI): 35 762–36 827] or 208 per 100 000 people, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19 such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups. Conclusions Overall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality, especially in older age groups and Indigenous populations in Ecuador, which was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗