Terrestrial impact rates for long and short-period comets
The present calculations of terrestrial impact rates for longand short-period comets crossing the earth's orbit respectively yield probabilities of 2.2 x 10 to the -9th/perihelion passage (with a probable velocity of 56.6 km/sec), and 6.6 x 10 to the -9th/perihelion passage (probable velocity, 28.9 km/sec). The total cratering rate from both long- and short-period comets is about 15 percent of the observed rate derived from known terrestrial astroblemes, although there is substantial uncertainty in both estimates. The estimated cratering rate from earth-crossing asteroids given by Shoemaker et al. (1979) is about twice the observed rate, and Monte Carlo simulations of the dynamical evolution of the Oort (1950) cloud yield cometary flux rate estimates for the early solar system of the order of 200 times the current flux.