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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-219: Verification of the Accuracy of a Relative Stopping Power (RSP) to Hounsfield Unit (HU) Calibration Curve Produced for Proton Treatment Planning Using EBT3-Gafchromic Film Dosimetry

Purpose: Accuracy of a RSP-HU calibration curve produced for proton treatment planning is tested by comparing the treatment planning system dose grid to physical doses delivered on film by a Mevion S250 double-scattering proton unit. Methods: A single batch of EBT3 Gafchromic film was used for calibration and measurements. The film calibration curve was obtained using Mevion proton beam reference option 20 (15cm range, 10cm modulation). Paired films were positioned at the center of the spread out Bragg peak (SOBP) in solid water. The calibration doses were verified with an ion chamber, including background and doses from 20cGy to 350cGy. Films were scanned in a flatbed Epson-Expression 10000-XL scanner, and analyzed using the red channel. A Rando phantom was scanned with a GE LightSpeed CT Simulator. A single-field proton plan (Eclipse, Varian) was calculated to deliver 171cGy to the pelvis section (heterogeneous region), using a standard 4×4cm aperture without compensator, 7.89cm beam range, and 5.36cm SOBP. Varied depths of the calculated distal 90% isodose-line were recorded and compared. The dose distribution from film irradiated between Rando slices was compared with the calculated plans using RIT v.6.2. Results: Distal 90% isodose-line depth variation between CT scans was 2mm on average, and 4mm at maximum. Fine calculation of this variation was restricted by the dose calculation grid, as well as the slice thickness. Dose differences between calibrated film measurements and calculated doses were on average 5.93cGy (3.5%), with the large majority of differences forming a normal distribution around 3.5cGy (2%). Calculated doses were almost entirely greater than those measured. Conclusion: RSP to HU calibration curve is shown to produce distal depth variation within the margin of tolerance (±4.3mm) across all potential scan energies and protocols. Dose distribution calculation is accurate to 2–4% within the SOBP, including areas of high tissue heterogeneity.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-664: Radiobiological Modeling of Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation in Mice

Purpose: Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) is a clinical technique used to reduce the incidence of brain metastasis and improve overall survival in select patients with ALL and SCLC, and we have shown the potential of PCI in select breast cancer patients through a mouse model (manuscript in preparation). We developed a computational model using our experimental results to demonstrate the advantage of treating brain micro-metastases early. Methods: MATLAB was used to develop the computational model of brain metastasis and PCI in mice. The number of metastases per mouse and the volume of metastases from four- and eight-week endpoints were fit to normal and log-normal distributions, respectively. Model input parameters were optimized so that model output would match the experimental number of metastases per mouse. A limiting dilution assay was performed to validate the model. The effect of radiation at different time points was computationally evaluated through the endpoints of incidence, number of metastases, and tumor burden. Results: The correlation between experimental number of metastases per mouse and the Gaussian fit was 87% and 66% at the two endpoints. The experimental volumes and the log-normal fit had correlations of 99% and 97%. In the optimized model, the correlation between number of metastases per mouse and the Gaussian fit was 96% and 98%. The log-normal volume fit and the model agree 100%. The model was validated by a limiting dilution assay, where the correlation was 100%. The model demonstrates that cells are very sensitive to radiation at early time points, and delaying treatment introduces a threshold dose at which point the incidence and number of metastases decline. Conclusion: We have developed a computational model of brain metastasis and PCI in mice that is highly correlated to our experimental data. The model shows that early treatment of subclinical disease is highly advantageous.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

A phase-field approach to model multi-axial and microstructure dependent fracture in nuclear grade graphite

The fracture behavior of nuclear grade graphites is strongly influenced by underlying microstructural features such as the character of filler particles, and the distribution of pores and voids. These microstructural features influence the crack nucleation and propagation behavior, resulting in quasi-brittle fracture with a tortuous crack path and significant scatter in measured bulk strength. This paper uses a phase-field method to model the microstructural and multi-axial fracture in H-451, a historic variant of nuclear graphite that provides the basis for an idealized study on a legacy grade. The representative volume elements are constructed from randomly located pores with random size obtained from experimentally determined log-normal distribution. The representative volume elements are then subjected to simulated multi-axial loading, and a reasonable agreement of the resulting fracture stress with experiments is obtained. Finally, quasi-brittle stress-strain evolution with a tortuous crack path is also observed from the simulations and is consistent with experimental results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2013

DISTRIBUTION OF PLASMOIDS IN POST-CORONAL MASS EJECTION CURRENT SHEETS

Recently, the fragmentation of a current sheet in the high-Lundquist-number regime caused by the plasmoid instability has been proposed as a possible mechanism for fast reconnection. In this work, we investigate this scenario by comparing the distribution of plasmoids obtained from Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) observational data of a coronal mass ejection event with a resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a similar event. The LASCO/C2 data are analyzed using visual inspection, whereas the numerical data are analyzed using both visual inspection and a more precise topological method. Contrasting the observational data with numerical data analyzed with both methods, we identify a major limitation of the visual inspection method, due to the difficulty in resolving smaller plasmoids. This result raises questions about reports of log-normal distributions of plasmoids and other coherent features in the recent literature. Based on nonlinear scaling relations of the plasmoid instability, we infer a lower bound on the current sheet width, assuming the underlying mechanism of current sheet broadening is resistive diffusion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

COLD MILKY WAY H i GAS IN FILAMENTS

We investigate data from the Galactic Effelsberg-Bonn H i Survey, supplemented with data from the third release of the Galactic All Sky Survey (GASS III) observed at Parkes. We explore the all-sky distribution of the local Galactic H i gas with |v{sub LSR}|<25 km s{sup −1} on angular scales of 11′–16′. Unsharp masking is applied to extract small-scale features. We find cold filaments that are aligned with polarized dust emission and conclude that the cold neutral medium (CNM) is mostly organized in sheets that are, because of projection effects, observed as filaments. These filaments are associated with dust ridges, aligned with the magnetic field measured on the structures by Planck at 353 GHz. The CNM above latitudes |b|>20{sup ∘} is described by a log-normal distribution, with a median Doppler temperature T{sub D} = 223 K, derived from observed line widths that include turbulent contributions. The median neutral hydrogen (H i) column density is N{sub H i} ≃ 10{sup 19.1} cm{sup −2}. These CNM structures are embedded within a warm neutral medium with N{sub H i} ≃ 10{sup 20} cm{sup −2}. Assuming an average distance of 100 pc, we derive for the CNM sheets a thickness of ≲0.3 pc. Adopting a magnetic field strength of B{sub tot} = (6.0 ± 1.8) μG, proposed by Heiles and Troland, and assuming that the CNM filaments are confined by magnetic pressure, we estimate a thickness of 0.09 pc. Correspondingly, the median volume density is in the range 14 ≲ n ≲ 47 cm{sup −3}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Under conditions of large geometric miss, tumor control probability can be higher for static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy compared to volume-modulated arc therapy for prostate cancer

The purpose of this work was to compare static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with volume-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in terms of tumor control probability (TCP) under scenarios involving large geometric misses, i.e., those beyond what are accounted for when margin expansion is determined. Using a planning approach typical for these treatments, a linear-quadratic–based model for TCP was used to compare mean TCP values for a population of patients who experiences a geometric miss (i.e., systematic and random shifts of the clinical target volume within the planning target dose distribution). A Monte Carlo approach was used to account for the different biological sensitivities of a population of patients. Interestingly, for errors consisting of coplanar systematic target volume offsets and three-dimensional random offsets, static gantry IMRT appears to offer an advantage over VMAT in that larger shift errors are tolerated for the same mean TCP. For example, under the conditions simulated, erroneous systematic shifts of 15 mm directly between or directly into static gantry IMRT fields result in mean TCP values between 96% and 98%, whereas the same errors on VMAT plans result in mean TCP values between 45% and 74%. Random geometric shifts of the target volume were characterized using normal distributions in each Cartesian dimension. When the standard deviations were doubled from those values assumed in the derivation of the treatment margins, our model showed a 7% drop in mean TCP for the static gantry IMRT plans but a 20% drop in TCP for the VMAT plans. Although adding a margin for error to a clinical target volume is perhaps the best approach to account for expected geometric misses, this work suggests that static gantry IMRT may offer a treatment that is more tolerant to geometric miss errors than VMAT.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Surface forces: Surface roughness in theory and experiment

A method of incorporating surface roughness into theoretical calculations of surface forces is presented. The model contains two chief elements. First, surface roughness is represented as a probability distribution of surface heights around an average surface height. A roughness-averaged force is determined by taking an average of the classic flat-surface force, weighing all possible separation distances against the probability distributions of surface heights. Second the model adds a repulsive contact force due to the elastic contact of asperities. We derive a simple analytic expression for the contact force. The general impact of roughness is to amplify the long range behaviour of noncontact (DLVO) forces. The impact of the elastic contact force is to provide a repulsive wall which is felt at a separation between surfaces that scales with the root-mean-square (RMS) roughness of the surfaces. The model therefore provides a means of distinguishing between “true zero,” where the separation between the average centres of each surface is zero, and “apparent zero,” defined by the onset of the repulsive contact wall. A normal distribution may be assumed for the surface probability distribution, characterised by the RMS roughness measured by atomic force microscopy (AFM). Alternatively the probability distribution may be defined by the histogram of heights measured by AFM. Both methods of treating surface roughness are compared against the classic smooth surface calculation and experimental AFM measurement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Strong far-infrared cooling lines, peculiar CO kinematics, and possible star-formation suppression in Hickson compact group 57

We present [C II] and [O I] observations from Herschel and CO(1-0) maps from the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter Astronomy (CARMA) of the Hickson compact group HCG 57, focusing on the galaxies HCG 57a and HCG 57d. HCG 57a has been previously shown to contain enhanced quantities of warm molecular hydrogen consistent with shock or turbulent heating. Our observations show that HCG 57d has strong [C II] emission compared to L {sub FIR} and weak CO(1-0), while in HCG 57a, both the [C II] and CO(1-0) are strong. HCG 57a lies at the upper end of the normal distribution of the [C II]/CO and [C II]/FIR ratios, and its far-infrared (FIR) cooling supports a low-density, warm, diffuse gas that falls close to the boundary of acceptable models of a photon-dominated region. However, the power radiated in the [C II] and warm H{sub 2} emissions have similar magnitudes, as seen in other shock-dominated systems and predicted by recent models. We suggest that shock heating of the [C II] is a viable alternative to photoelectric heating in violently disturbed, diffuse gas. The existence of shocks is also consistent with the peculiar CO kinematics in the galaxy, indicating that highly noncircular motions are present. These kinematically disturbed CO regions also show evidence of suppressed star formation, falling a factor of 10-30 below normal galaxies on the Kennicutt-Schmidt relation. We suggest that the peculiar properties of both galaxies are consistent with a highly dissipative, off-center collisional encounter between HCG 57d and 57a, creating ring-like morphologies in both systems. Highly dissipative gas-on-gas collisions may be more common in dense groups because of the likelihood of repeated multiple encounters. The possibility of shock-induced star-formation suppression may explain why a subset of these HCG galaxies has been found previously to fall in the mid-infrared green valley.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

ThunderSecure: deploying real-time intrusion detection for 100G research networks by leveraging stream-based features and one-class classification network

Nowadays, data generated by large-scale scientific experiments are on the scale of petabytes per month. These data are transferred through dedicated high-bandwidth networks (40/100G) across distributed sites for processing, storage, and analysis. Like general purpose networks, research networks experience intrusions. However, monitoring anomalies in such high-speed network traffics is challenging given current cyber-infrastructure. Moreover, traditional network intrusion detection systems (NIDS) are signature based. However, anomaly patterns are difficult to define and that rulesets are often not updated frequently enough to reflect the changes of attack behaviors. We present ThunderSecure, a high-throughput, unsupervised learning-based intrusions detection system for 100G research networks. ThunderSecure implements an efficient packet processing and detection pipeline using multi-cores and GPUs. It extracts statistical and temporal features from real-time network data streams and feeds them to a one-class anomaly detection network. A baseline of normal distribution will be created based on the training observation. Testing traffic deviated from the learned profile will be marked as anomalies. We trained ThunderSecure on hundreds of billions of science data packets mirrored from two 100G network connections at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The detection performance was evaluated on traffic captured from the same research network days and weeks after the training with different types of attack flows injected. Results show that ThunderSecure can recognize science data traffic captured long after the training and made nearly certain detection on the segment of the streams where anomalous flows were injected.

100G research network↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Regional oxygen reduction and denitrification rates in groundwater from multi-model residence time distributions, San Joaquin Valley, USA

Rates of oxygen and nitrate reduction are key factors in determining the chemical evolution of groundwater. Little is known about how these rates vary and covary in regional groundwater settings, as few studies have focused on regional datasets with multiple tracers and methods of analysis that account for effects of mixed residence times on apparent reaction rates. This study provides insight into the characteristics of residence times and rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification (NO 3 – reduction) by comparing reaction rates using multi-model analytical residence time distributions (RTDs) applied to a data set of atmospheric tracers of groundwater age and geochemical data from 141 well samples in the Central Eastern San Joaquin Valley, CA. The RTD approach accounts for mixtures of residence times in a single sample to provide estimates of in-situ rates. Tracers included SF 6 , CFCs, 3 H, He from 3 H (tritiogenic He), 14 C, and terrigenic He. Parameter estimation and multi-model averaging were used to establish RTDs with lower error variances than those produced by individual RTD models. The set of multi-model RTDs was used in combination with NO 3 – and dissolved gas data to estimate zero order and first order rates of O 2 reduction and denitrification. Results indicated that O 2 reduction and denitrification rates followed approximately log-normal distributions. Rates of O 2 and NO 3 – reduction were correlated and, on an electron milliequivalent basis, denitrification rates tended to exceed O 2 reduction rates. Estimated historical NO 3 – trends were similar to historical measurements. Here, results show that the multi-model approach can improve estimation of age distributions, and that relatively easily measured O 2 rates can provide information about trends in denitrification rates, which are more difficult to estimate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring the Energy and Distance Distributions of Fast Radio Bursts Using the First CHIME/FRB Catalog

Abstract Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are brief, energetic, typically extragalactic flashes of radio emission whose progenitors are largely unknown. Although studying the FRB population is essential for understanding how these astrophysical phenomena occur, such studies have been difficult to conduct without large numbers of FRBs and characterizable observational biases. Using the recently released catalog of 536 FRBs published by the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Fast Radio Burst (CHIME/FRB) collaboration, we present a study of the FRB population that also calibrates for selection effects. Assuming a Schechter function, we infer a characteristic energy cut-off of E char = 2.38 − 1.64 + 5.35 × 10 41 erg and a differential power-law index of γ = − 1.3 − 0.4 + 0.7 . Simultaneously, we infer a volumetric rate of [ 7.3 − 3.8 + 8.8 (stat.) − 1.8 + 2.0 ( sys . ) ] × 10 4 Gpc −3 yr −1 above a pivot energy of 10 39 erg and below a scattering timescale of 10 ms at 600 MHz, and find we cannot significantly constrain the cosmic evolution of the FRB population with star-formation rate. Modeling the host’s dispersion measure (DM) contribution as a log-normal distribution and assuming a total Galactic contribution of 80 pc cm −3 , we find a median value of DM host = 84 − 49 + 69 pc cm −3 , comparable with values typically used in the literature. Proposed models for FRB progenitors should be consistent with the energetics and abundances of the full FRB population predicted by our results. Finally, we infer the redshift distribution of FRBs detected with CHIME, which will be tested with the localizations and redshifts enabled by the upcoming CHIME/FRB Outriggers project.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SINGLE-PULSE RADIO OBSERVATIONS OF THE GALACTIC CENTER MAGNETAR PSR J1745–2900

In this paper, we report radio observations of the Galactic Center magnetar PSR J1745–2900 at six epochs between 2014 June and October. These observations were carried out using the new Shanghai Tian Ma Radio Telescope at a frequency of 8.6 GHz. Both the flux density and integrated profile of PSR J1745–2900 show dramatic changes from epoch to epoch, showing that the pulsar was in its “erratic” phase. On MJD 56836, the flux density of this magnetar was about 8.7 mJy, which was 10 times larger than that reported at the time of discovery, enabling a single-pulse analysis. The emission is dominated by narrow “spiky” pulses that follow a log-normal distribution in peak flux density. From 1913 pulses, we detected 53 pulses whose peak flux densities are 10 times greater than that of the integrated profile. They are concentrated in pulse phase at the peaks of the integrated profile. The pulse widths at the 50% level of these bright pulses were between 0.°2 and 0.°9, much narrower than that of the integrated profile (∼12°). The observed pulse widths may be limited by interstellar scattering. No clear correlation was found between the widths and peak flux density of these pulses and no evidence was found for subpulse drifting. Relatively strong spiky pulses are also detected in the other five epochs of observation, showing the same properties as those detected in MJD 56836. These strong spiky pulses cannot be classified as “giant” pulses but are more closely related to normal pulse emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Estimation of Rectal Dose Using Daily Megavoltage Cone-Beam Computed Tomography and Deformable Image Registration

Purpose: The actual dose delivered to critical organs will differ from the simulated dose because of interfractional organ motion and deformation. Here, we developed a method to estimate the rectal dose in prostate intensity modulated radiation therapy with consideration to interfractional organ motion using daily megavoltage cone-beam computed tomography (MVCBCT). Methods and Materials: Under exemption status from our institutional review board, we retrospectively reviewed 231 series of MVCBCT of 8 patients with prostate cancer. On both planning CT (pCT) and MVCBCT images, the rectal contours were delineated and the CT value within the contours was replaced by the mean CT value within the pelvis, with the addition of 100 Hounsfield units. MVCBCT images were rigidly registered to pCT and then nonrigidly registered using B-Spline deformable image registration (DIR) with Velocity AI software. The concordance between the rectal contours on MVCBCT and pCT was evaluated using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). The dose distributions normalized for 1 fraction were also deformed and summed to estimate the actual total dose. Results: The DSC of all treatment fractions of 8 patients was improved from 0.75±0.04 (mean ±SD) to 0.90 ±0.02 by DIR. Six patients showed a decrease of the generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) from total dose compared with treatment plans. Although the rectal volume of each treatment fraction did not show any correlation with the change in gEUD (R{sup 2}=0.18±0.13), the displacement of the center of gravity of rectal contours in the anterior-posterior (AP) direction showed an intermediate relationship (R{sup 2}=0.61±0.16). Conclusion: We developed a method for evaluation of rectal dose using DIR and MVCBCT images and showed the necessity of DIR for the evaluation of total dose. Displacement of the rectum in the AP direction showed a greater effect on the change in rectal dose compared with the rectal volume.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

A variance-based decomposition and global sensitivity index method for uncertainty quantification: Application to retrieved ice cloud properties

This study develops a novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for cloud microphysical property retrievals using variance-based decomposition and global sensitivity index. In this UQ framework, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ground-based observations, which are the inputs for the cloud retrieval studied here. The principal components (PCs) in the EOF expansion are parameterized as random input variables, and hence, the input dimension is greatly reduced (up to a factor of 50), allowing large ensemble of random samplings. The EOF expansion improves the accuracy of the uncertainty estimation by taking into account the cross correlations in the input data profiles. Here, this method enables a probabilistic representation of a retrieval process by adding normally distributed perturbations into PCs of sample means of input data profiles within a time window. Therefore, it effectively facilitates objective validation of climate models against cloud retrievals under a probabilistic framework for rigorous statistical inferences. Moreover, the variance-based global sensitivity index analysis, part of this method, attributes the output uncertainties to each individual source, thus providing directions for improving retrieval algorithms and observation strategies. For demonstration, we apply this method to quantify the uncertainties of the ARM program's baseline cloud retrieval algorithm for an ice cloud case observed at the Southern Great Plains site on 9 March 2000.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A liquid stratification model to predict failure in thermally damaged EBW detonators

In previous work, commercially available downward facing exploding bridgewire detonators (EBWs) were exposed to elevated temperatures. These detonators were then initiated using a firing set which discharged a high amplitude short duration electrical pulse into a thin gold bridgewire. Responses of the detonators were measured using photonic doppler velocimetry (PDV) and high-speed photography. A time delay of 4 μs between EBW initiation and first movement of an output flyer separated operable detonators from inoperable detonators or duds. Here, we propose a simple method to determine detonator operability from the calculated state of the detonator at the time the firing set is initiated. The failure criterion is based on the gap distance between the exploding bridgewire (EBW) and the adjacent initiating explosive within the detonator which is low-density pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) that melts between 413-415 K (140-142 ºC). The gap forms as PETN melts and flows to the bottom of the input pellet. Melting of PETN is modeled thermodynamically as an energy sink using a normal distribution spread over a temperature range between the onset temperature of 413 K and the ending temperature of 415 K. The extent of the melt is determined from the average temperature of the PETN. The PETN liquid is assumed to occupy the interstitial gas volume in the lower part of the input pellet. The vacated volume from the relocated liquid forms the gap between the EBW and the PETN. The remaining sandwiched layer consists of solid PETN particles and gas filling interstitial volume. We predict that a threshold gap between 17-27 μm separates properly functioning detonators from duds.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2018

Revisiting short-term earthquake triggered volcanism

It has been noted for centuries that earthquakes appear to trigger the eruption of volcanoes. For example, analyses of global volcanic and seismic records since 1500 AD have shown that explosive eruptions with Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) values ≥2 are preceded within days by nearby major earthquakes (magnitude M8 or larger) about 4 times more often than expected due to coincidence, suggesting that large earthquakes can trigger eruptions. Here we expand the definition of a triggered eruption to include the possibility of M6 or greater earthquakes within 5 days and 800 km of a VEI 2 or greater eruption. Removing pre-1964 records, to ensure complete and accurate catalogs, we find 30 volcanoes that at some point experienced a potentially triggered eruption and define these volcanoes as “sensitive” volcanoes. Within this group of sensitive volcanoes, normalized distributions of volcano-centric factors such as tectonic setting, dominant rock type, and type of volcano are practically indistinguishable from those of sensitive volcanoes in which the time of eruption is randomized. Comparisons of sensitive volcanoes and insensitive volcanoes (i.e., volcanoes that have never experienced a triggered eruption) reveal that sensitive volcanoes are simply more active than insensitive volcanoes: They erupt more frequently, are located solely in subduction zones, and erupt primarily andesites and basaltic-andesites. The potentially triggered eruptions do not show the magnitude-distance relationship expected for seismically induced responses (e.g., hydrologic responses), and eruptions that do occur within days of nearby earthquakes do so within rates expected by random chance. There is, however, a 5–12% increase in the number of explosive eruptions in the 2 months to 2 years following major earthquakes. Finally, we conclude that short-term seismically triggered explosive eruptions occur less frequently than previously inferred, an important conclusion when considering volcanic hazards and for understanding the nature of earthquake-volcano interactions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Upscaling permeability for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks with the multiple boundary method

Upscaling permeability of grid blocks is crucial for groundwater models. A novel upscaling method for three-dimensional fractured porous rocks is presented. The objective of the study was to compare this method with the commonly used Oda upscaling method and the volume averaging method. First, the multiple boundary method and its computational framework were defined for three-dimensional stochastic fracture networks. Then, the different upscaling methods were compared for a set of rotated fractures, for tortuous fractures, and for two discrete fracture networks. The results computed by the multiple boundary method are comparable with those of the other two methods and fit best the analytical solution for a set of rotated fractures. The errors in flow rate of the equivalent fracture model decrease when using the multiple boundary method. Furthermore, the errors of the equivalent fracture models increase from well-connected fracture networks to poorly connected ones. Finally, the diagonal components of the equivalent permeability tensors tend to follow a normal or log-normal distribution for the well-connected fracture network model with infinite fracture size. By contrast, they exhibit a power-law distribution for the poorly connected fracture network with multiple scale fractures. The study demonstrates the accuracy and the flexibility of the multiple boundary upscaling concept. This makes it attractive for being incorporated into any existing flow-based upscaling procedures, which helps in reducing the uncertainty of groundwater models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗