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At least 145 records · Page 8

A Mathematical Framework for Representing Cyber-Physical System Interdependencies and Resilience

U.S. critical infrastructure is increasingly composed of integrated cyber-physical systems (CPS) whose components are operationally interdependent. These interdependencies can create additional vulnerabilities beyond those that are typically evaluated through independent physical and cyber risk assessments. These additional vulnerabilities, previously undetected at the sub-system and/or component level, could cause cascading effects across both the physical and cyber domains that could lead to infrastructure disruption or failure. This paper will review an initial mathematical framework developed to help understand the dynamics of these interfacing physical and cyber components at a holistic system level. The resulting framework also provides a method for modeling and assessing the resilience of CPS in complex and adaptive systems. It frames the system in terms of mission performance and the potential effects to performance caused by attacks that are cyber, physical, or blended in nature. The framework utilizes a systems-based, state-space modeling approach to reason about risk, resilience, and interdependencies in CPS. Probabilities are applied to each CPS component regarding a threat (both man-made and natural) and the likelihood of that particular component being impacted, along with indirect impact to other interdependent components. These component-level impacts from threats then translate into mission-level impact and systemic state change.

Brigantic, Robert T.↗

Persistent Classification: Understanding Adversarial Attacks by Studying Decision Boundary Dynamics

ABSTRACT There are a number of hypotheses underlying the existence of adversarial examples for classification problems. These include the high‐dimensionality of the data, the high codimension in the ambient space of the data manifolds of interest, and that the structure of machine learning models may encourage classifiers to develop decision boundaries close to data points. This article proposes a new framework for studying adversarial examples that does not depend directly on the distance to the decision boundary. Similarly to the smoothed classifier literature, we define a (natural or adversarial) data point to be ( γ , σ)‐stable if the probability of the same classification is at least for points sampled in a Gaussian neighborhood of the point with a given standard deviation . We focus on studying the differences between persistence metrics along interpolants of natural and adversarial points. We show that adversarial examples have significantly lower persistence than natural examples for large neural networks in the context of the MNIST and ImageNet datasets. We connect this lack of persistence with decision boundary geometry by measuring angles of interpolants with respect to decision boundaries. Finally, we connect this approach with robustness by developing a manifold alignment gradient metric and demonstrating the increase in robustness that can be achieved when training with the addition of this metric.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of 18 O Exchange on Neutron Emission Rates of Aging 238 PuO 2 LWRHUs

The Lightweight Radioisotope Heater Unit (LWRHU) provides about 1 Watt of thermal power to critical electrical and mechanical systems in the extreme temperatures of space, maintaining the operating temperature of the spacecraft’s scientific and general operating equipment. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) designed and tested the LWRHU in the 1970s through early 1980s. The first production campaign at LANL was in the early 1980s in support of the Galileo mission in which over 100 LWRHUs were manufactured. In the mid-1990s, almost 200 LWRHUs were manufactured in support of the Cassini mission. After the primary Cassini manufacturing campaign, the Department of Energy (DOE) approved the fabrication of more than 10 additional LWRHUs as spares in 1998. The LWRHU assembly contains the following components: a fuel pellet, a vented capsule, a pyrolytic graphite insulator, and a fine-weave pierced fabric (FWPF) graphite aeroshell. The fuel pellet is a hot-pressed 238 PuO 2 cylindrical pellet that is sintered to create a ceramic pellet. The pellet is encapsulated in a platinum-rhodium encapsulation. The welded fueled clad is placed inside a pyrolytic graphite thermal insulation to protect the fuel from the heat produced in reentry events. The exterior layer of the LWRHU assembly is the FWPF aeroshell. Before sintering, PuO 2 granules are heated in a furnace at temperatures greater than or equal to 700°C under an enriched 16 O atmosphere in order to reduce trace quantities of 18 O. Because 18 O undergoes an (α,n) reaction, 18 O needs to be removed as much as possible to meet radiation emission requirements set by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), as well as other agencies. The relative abundances of the oxygen isotopes are indicated by neutron emission rate (NER) measurements. LWRHUs are vented with a sintered platinum frit vent (George 1986). During extraterrestrial operation, the vent in the cladding allows helium from the decay of plutonium to escape and relieves pressure from the system while preventing the solids from escaping (Rinehart 1996, Tate 1982 & 1985). This vent is protected during manufacture by a platinum-30 rhodium cover. The capsule vent is activated by milling a 0.025-inch diameter hole through the protective cover to a nominal depth of 0.015 inches, generally immediately before the LWRHU is loaded into the aeroshell (George 1986). Prior to long-term storage, LWRHUs are vented and thus potentially allow infiltration of 18 O from the ambient atmosphere. Although NER decreases with age due to the reduction in emitted alpha particles, it might be expected that NER reduction is mitigated by the exchange of 18 O. However, this is not necessarily the case and no trend was observed relating NER to age other than the natural decay of 238 Pu (Mulford 2021). The most probable and dominant factor for determining specific NER was manufacturing discrepancies between individual units. It is important to understand the lack of observed 16 O- 18 O exchange and to compare LWRHU pellets as much as possible.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A compact radio source in the nucleus of M82

The brightest compact radio source in the nucleus of M82 has a linear diameter of about 0.02 parsecs (25 light-days). On the basis of this small size and energy considerations, it seems that this source is probably not a supernova remnant, but is similar in nature to the compact radio sources found in the nuclei of spiral and elliptical galaxies, Seyfert galaxies, radio galaxies, and in quasi-stellar objects.

Geldzahler, B. J.↗

X-ray observations of broad absorption-line quasars

The present 0.1-4 keV observer frame data was obtained for three broad absorption-line quasars with the imaging proportional counter on the Einstein Observatory. Data for one object, UM 232, are sufficiently good to tell that absorption at 1 keV is unimportant (quasar rest frame), which leads to an upper limit to the column density of absorbing gas of 10 to the 22nd/sq cm. Because this gas absorbs optical continuum and line emission, it must have a size of 10 to the 19th cm or greater, and therefore a density of less than 1000/cu cm. This absorbing gas is unlike the much denser clouds responsible for the broad emission lines. It is also calculated that the mass of absorbing gas is greater than 1 solar mass, and that it is at least 300 pc distant from the ionizing continuum source. Free-free absorption, which is calculated to be unimportant at frequencies above 2 GHz, is probably not the cause of the radio-quiet nature of this quasar in the 5 and 10.7 GHz survey of Strittmatter et al. (1980).

Bregman, J. N.↗

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

Temperature Uncertainty Modeling with Proxy Structural Data as Geostatistical Constraints for Well Siting: An Example Applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aim of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations . The data used to support the modeling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modeling, the latter considered "secondary" data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally likely temperature models (i.e., realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: Vprior and entropy. Vprior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e., linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g., dilation versus distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, Vprior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with highe r probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comp arison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

3D temperature modeling↗

Dealing with the Asteroid Impact Hazard

The small fraction of the asteroids with Earth-crossing or Earth-approaching orbits is of special interest to us because many will eventually impact our planet. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics, although we have little information on the possible variability of this flux over time. The effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts (such as the KT impactor 65 million years ago), nuclear explosive testing, and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile roughly 15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near one million megatons energy. The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. These include the relative risk of different impact scenarios and the associated costs and probability of success of countermeasures. It is generally agreed that the first step is to survey and catalogue the thousand-or-so Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), and we review the status of the Spaceguard NEA Survey. We compare the efficiency of various ground and space-based approaches and consider the challenges of international coordination and the problems and opportunities associated with communicating the results with the press and the public. It is also important to reflect on how the impact hazard might be dealt with by both national governments and international decision-making bodies, and to anticipate ways of mitigating the danger if a NEA were located on an apparent Earth-impact trajectory. As the most extreme known example of a natural hazard with low probability but severe global consequences. the NEA impact hazard calls for the most careful consideration and planning.

Morrison, David↗

Temperature uncertainty modelling with proxy structural data as geostatistical constraints for well siting: an example applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural geology information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aims of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations. The data used to support the modelling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modelling (distance to fault, distance to fault intersections and terminations, Coulomb stress change and dilation tendency), the latter considered ‘secondary’ data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally-likely temperature models (i.e. realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: V prior and entropy. V prior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because of the dipping ellipsoid shape created and that the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e. linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g. dilation v. distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, V prior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with higher probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comparison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Noiseless compression using non-Markov models

Adaptive data compression techniques can be viewed as consisting of a model specified by a database common to the encoder and decoder, an encoding rule and a rule for updating the model to ensure that the encoder and decoder always agree on the interpretation of the next transmission. The techniques which fit this framework range from run-length coding, to adaptive Huffman and arithmetic coding, to the string-matching techniques of Lempel and Ziv. The compression obtained by arithmetic coding is dependent on the generality of the source model. For many sources, an independent-letter model is clearly insufficient. Unfortunately, a straightforward implementation of a Markov model requires an amount of space exponential in the number of letters remembered. The Directed Acyclic Word Graph (DAWG) can be constructed in time and space proportional to the text encoded, and can be used to estimate the probabilities required for arithmetic coding based on an amount of memory which varies naturally depending on the encoded text. The tail of that portion of the text which was encoded is the longest suffix that has occurred previously. The frequencies of letters following these previous occurrences can be used to estimate the probability distribution of the next letter. Experimental results indicate that compression is often far better than that obtained using independent-letter models, and sometimes also significantly better than other non-independent techniques.

Blumer, Anselm↗

Variable-length codes and the Fano metric.

It is shown that the metric proposed originally by Fano for sequential decoding is precisely the required statistic for minimum-error-probability decoding of variable-length codes. The analysis shows further that the 'natural' choice of bias in the metric is the code rate and gives insight into why the Fano metric has proved to be the best practical choice in sequential decoding. The recently devised Jelinek-Zigangirov 'stack algorithm' is shown to be a natural consequence of this interpretation of the Fano metric. Finally, it is shown that the elimination of the bias in the 'truncated' portion of the code tree gives a slight reduction in average computation at the sacrifice of increased error probability.

Massey, J. L.↗

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. Further, the spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rare Event Sampling Improves Mercury Instability Statistics

Due to the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics, there is a non-zero probability that Mercury's orbit will become unstable in the future. Previous efforts have estimated the probability of this happening between 3 and 5 billion years in the future using a large number of direct numerical simulations with an N-body code, but were not able to obtain accurate estimates before 3 billion years in the future because Mercury instability events are too rare. In this paper we use a new rare-event sampling technique, Quantile Diffusion Monte Carlo (QDMC), to estimate that the probability of a Mercury instability event in the next 2 billion years is approximately 10 –4 in the REBOUND N-body code. We show that QDMC provides unbiased probability estimates at a computational cost of up to 100 times less than direct numerical simulation. QDMC is easy to implement and could be applied to many problems in planetary dynamics in which it is necessary to estimate the probability of a rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hypervelocity impact tests on Space Shuttle Orbiter thermal protection material

Hypervelocity impact tests were conducted to simulate the damage that meteoroids will produce in the Shuttle Orbiter leading edge structural subsystem material. The nature and extent of the damage is reported and the probability of encountering meteoroids with sufficient energy to produce such damage is discussed.

Humes, D. H.↗

An experiment protocol for a search for radio signals of extraterrestrial intelligent origin in the presence of man-made radio frequency sources

Some aspects of signal extraction in a microwave search for evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence are examined. Parametric relations are summarized which are applicable to a microwave search of constrained duration that employs FFT spectrum-analyzer receivers, with sensitivity enhancement by spectrum accumulation and detection by a threshold criterion. Three types of natural and man-made false alarms are identified, the probability of false alarm in a single data channel is computed, and the implications of false alarms for a constant-beamwidth sky survey are considered. It is shown that the key to an efficient search is the prompt and unambiguous elimination of false alarms. An experimental protocol is suggested which eliminates spurious signals primarily through procedural techniques involving antenna repointing, delayed repeated observations, and storage of particular historical parameters for suspect signals.

Edelson, R. E.↗

Effects of aerosols and surface shadowing on bidirectional reflectance measurements of deserts

Desert surfaces are probably one of the most stable of the Earth's natural targets for remote sensing. The bidirectional reflectance properties of the Saudi Arabian desert was investigated during the Summer Monsoon Experiment (Summer Monex). A comparison of high-altitude with near-surface measurements of the White Sands desert showed significant differences. These discrepancies have been attributed to forward scattering of the dust-laden atmosphere prevalent during Summer Monex. This paper is concerned in general with modeling the effects of atmospheric aerosols and surface shadowing on the remote sensing of bidirectional reflectance factors of desert targets, and in particular with comparing the results of these models with flight results. Although it is possible to approximate the latter, it is felt that a surface reflectance model with a smaller specular component would have permitted using a more realistic set of atmospheric conditions in the simulations.

Bowker, David E.↗

Shock effects and argon loss in samples of the Leedey L6 chondrite experimentally shocked to 29-70 GPa pressures

The recovery of polished 600-micron-thick 7-mm-diameter disk samples and powder samples of the Leedey L6 chondrite from 29-70-GPa experimental shocks is investigated experimentally under vacuum conditions, with a focus on the possible direct shock loss of radiogenic Ar. The results of petrographic examination of the shocked samples and Ar isotope measurements are presented in tables, graphs, and micrographs and characterized in detail. The principal damage mechanisms are identified as mechanical disaggregation and increasing cataclasis, with little melting. The degassing of radiogenic Ar is found to be relatively modest and to increase with shock pressure and sample porosity; it is attributed to a combination of mechanical grain disruption and feldspar melting. It is inferred that Ar loss in naturally shocked materials (especially those showing few signs of melting) probably occurs during extended exposure to high temperatures during impact formation.

Bogard, Donald↗