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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the WFIP2 updates to the HRRR model using scanning Doppler lidar measurements in the complex terrain of the Columbia River Basin

The wind-energy (WE) industry relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models as foundational or base models for many purposes, including wind-resource assessment and wind-power forecasting. During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River Basin of Oregon and Washington, a significant effort was made to improve NWP forecasts through focused model development, to include experimental refinements to the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model physics and horizontal grid spacing. In this study, the performance of an experimental version of HRRR that includes these refinements is tested against a control version, which corresponds to that of the operational HRRR run by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Protection at the outset of WFIP2. Furthermore, the effects of horizontal grid resolution were also tested by comparing wind forecasts from the HRRR (with 3-km grid spacing) with those from a finer-resolution HRRR nest with 750-m grid spacing. Model forecasts are validated against accurate wind-profile measurements by three scanning, pulsed Doppler lidars at sites separated by a total distance of 71 km. Model skill and improvements in model skill, attributable to physics refinements and improved horizontal grid resolution, varied by season, by site, and during periods of atmospheric phenomena relevant to WE. In general, model errors were the largest below 150 m above ground level (AGL). Experimental HRRR refinements tended to reduce the mean absolute error (MAE) and other error metrics for many conditions, but degradation in skill (increased MAE) was noted below 150 m AGL at the two lowest-elevation sites at night. Finer resolution was found to produce the most significant reductions in the error metrics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved modeling of β electronic recoils in liquid xenon using LUX calibration data

We report here methods and techniques for creating and improving a model that reproduces the scintillation and ionization response of a dual-phase liquid and gaseous xenon time-projection chamber. Starting with the recent release of the Noble Element Simulation Technique (NEST v2.0), electronic recoil data from the $\beta$ decays of ${}^3$H and ${}^{14}$C in the Large Underground Xenon (LUX) detector were used to tune the model, in addition to external data sets that allow for extrapolation beyond the LUX data-taking conditions. This paper also presents techniques used for modeling complicated temporal and spatial detector pathologies that can adversely affect data using a simplified model framework. The methods outlined in this report show an example of the robust applications possible with NEST v2.0, while also providing the final electronic recoil model and detector parameters that will used in the new analysis package, the LUX Legacy Analysis Monte Carlo Application (LLAMA), for accurate reproduction of the LUX data. As accurate background reproduction is crucial for the success of rare-event searches, such as dark matter direct detection experiments, the techniques outlined here can be used in other single-phase and dual-phase xenon detectors to assist with accurate ER background reproduction.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Incubation Temperature Affects Duckling Body Size and Food Consumption Despite No Effect on Associated Feeding Behaviors

Synopsis Developmental conditions can have consequences for offspring fitness. For example, small changes (<1°C) in average avian incubation temperature have large effects on important post-hatch offspring phenotypes, including growth rate, thermoregulation, and behavior. Furthermore, average incubation temperatures differ among eggs within the same nest, to the extent (i.e., >1°C) that differences in offspring phenotypes within broods should result. A potential consequence of within-nest incubation temperature variation is inequality in behaviors that could cause differences in resource acquisition within broods. To investigate this, we incubated wood duck (Aix sponsa) eggs at one of two ecologically-relevant incubation temperatures (35°C or 36°C), formed mixed-incubation temperature broods after ducklings hatched, and conducted trials to measure duckling behaviors associated with acquisition of heat (one trial) or food (three trials). Contrary to our predictions, we found no effect of incubation temperature on duckling behaviors (e.g., time spent occupying heat source, frequency of feeding bouts). However, we found evidence that ducklings incubated at the higher temperature consumed more food during the 1-h feeding trials, and grew faster in body mass and structural size (culmen and tarsus) throughout the study, than those incubated at the lower temperature. Apparent food consumption during the trials was positively related to culmen length, suggesting that differences in food consumption may be driven by structural size. This could result in positive feedback, which would amplify size differences between offspring incubated at different temperatures. Thus, our study identifies incubation temperature as a mechanism by which fitness-related phenotypic differences can be generated and even amplified within avian broods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reproduction drives changes in space use and habitat selection in a highly adaptable invasive mammal

Abstract For ungulates, it is not well understood how the interaction between habitat and reproduction affects movement behavior, space use, and habitat selection. We used known parturition (farrowing) data to validate First Passage Time (FPT) movement analysis to identify wild pig (Sus scrofa) parturition events from data collected with GPS collars. We examined home range and habitat selection during three physiologically distinct time periods in the reproductive cycle: late-gestation; farrowing; and neonate-care period. Sows exhibited a behavioral change 1-2 days prior to farrowing, suggesting FPT analysis can reliably identify parturition events for wide-ranging species that have a focused birthing area. Home range was smallest during the farrowing period, likely reflective of nest building, parturition, and protection of neonates. Home range size during the neonate-care period was intermediate between the late-gestation and farrowing periods, indicative of offspring care that may restrict maternal movement. Across all periods, sows avoided developed areas that have sparse canopy and ground cover and are associated with human activities. During late-gestation, sows avoided pine forests that have an open understory and less vegetative cover. During late-gestation and neonate-care, sows selected bottomland hardwood forests, habitat associated with ample food, cover, and water. During farrowing and neonate-care periods, sows selected upland hardwood forests, habitat with high quality food and cover for neonates. The physiological requirements of reproduction drive female habitat selection and spatial scale of movement patterns associated with parturition. Our study contributes to delineation of the appropriate scale at which to analyze movement data to provide insight about where individuals chose to place their home range, how much space to use, and how they use resources on the landscape to maximize reproductive success and fitness.

Zoology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust sampling for weak lensing and clustering analyses with the Dark Energy Survey

Recent cosmological analyses rely on the ability to accurately sample from high-dimensional posterior distributions. A variety of algorithms have been applied in the field, but justification of the particular sampler choice and settings is often lacking. Here, we investigate three such samplers to motivate and validate the algorithm and settings used for the Dark Energy Survey (DES) analyses of the first 3 yr (Y3) of data from combined measurements of weak lensing and galaxy clustering. We employ the full DES Year 1 likelihood alongside a much faster approximate likelihood, which enables us to assess the outcomes from each sampler choice and demonstrate the robustness of our full results. We find that the ellipsoidal nested sampling algorithm multinest reports inconsistent estimates of the Bayesian evidence and somewhat narrower parameter credible intervals than the sliced nested sampling implemented in polychord. We compare the findings from multinest and polychord with parameter inference from the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, finding good agreement. We determine that polychord provides a good balance of speed and robustness for posterior and evidence estimation, and recommend different settings for testing purposes and final chains for analyses with DES Y3 data. Our methodology can readily be reproduced to obtain suitable sampler settings for future surveys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correlated metals and unconventional superconductivity in rhombohedral trilayer graphene: A renormalization group analysis

Here, motivated by recent experimental observations of correlated metallic phases and superconductivity in rhombohedral trilayer graphene (RTG), we perform an unbiased study of electronic ordering instabilities in hole-doped RTG. Specifically, we focus on electronic states energetically proximate to Van Hove singularities (VHSs), where a large density of states promotes different interaction-induced symmetry-breaking electronic orders. To resolve the Fermi surface near VHSs, we construct a fermionic hot-spot model and demonstrate that a perpendicular electric field can tune different nesting structures of the Fermi surface. Subsequently, we apply a renormalization group analysis to describe the low-energy phase diagrams of our model under both short-range repulsive interactions as well as realistic (long-range) Coulomb interactions. Our analysis shows instabilities towards either intervalley coherent metallic phases or superconducting phases. The dominant pairing channel depends crucially on the nature of Fermi surface nesting—repulsive Coulomb interaction favors spin-singlet d-wave pairing for relatively small displacement field and spin-singlet i-wave pairing for larger displacement field. We argue that the phase diagram of RTG can be well-understood by modeling the realistic Coulomb interaction as the sum of repulsive density-density interaction and ferromagnetic spin-triplet intervalley coherence (IVC) Hund's coupling, while phonon-mediated electronic interactions have a negligible effect on this system, in sharp contrast to twisted graphene multilayers.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Topological Singularity Induced Chiral Kohn Anomaly in a Weyl Semimetal

The electron-phonon interaction (EPI) is instrumental in a wide variety of phenomena in solid-state physics, such as electrical resistivity in metals, carrier mobility, optical transition, and polaron effects in semiconductors, lifetime of hot carriers, transition temperature in BCS superconductors, and even spin relaxation in diamond nitrogen-vacancy centers for quantum information processing. However, due to the weak EPI strength, most phenomena have focused on electronic properties rather than on phonon properties. One prominent exception is the Kohn anomaly, where phonon softening can emerge when the phonon wave vector nests the Fermi surface of metals. In this paper, we report a new class of Kohn anomaly in a topological Weyl semimetal (WSM), predicted by field-theoretical calculations, and experimentally observed through inelastic x-ray and neutron scattering on WSM tantalum phosphide. Compared to the conventional Kohn anomaly, the Fermi surface in a WSM exhibits multiple topological singularities of Weyl nodes, leading to a distinct nesting condition with chiral selection, a power-law divergence, and non-negligible dynamical effects. Our work brings the concept of the Kohn anomaly into WSMs and sheds light on elucidating the EPI mechanism in emergent topological materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Second harmonic Bessel-Gauss beam shaping with elliptic axicon aberrations

The second harmonic (SH) of an axicon generated Bessel-Gauss beam is created through the nonlinear interaction of photons with a crystal, resulting in the energy doubling of the output photons. In this work, we show experimentally that in addition to frequency doubling, the SH of Bessel-Gauss beams under asymmetric aberrations from an elliptic axicon exhibit intriguing beam formation. Particularly, the central region of the SH beam profile is composed of two central spots of various geometries surrounded by nested ellipses; one of which is the configuration of two central gamma dots with similar radius knotted by nested ellipses for a zeroth-order Bessel-Gauss pump. These SH beams consistently maintain their spatial profile throughout propagation, reminiscing the behavior of screw dislocations in wave patterns. Our numerical simulations produce beam dynamics consistent with that of experiments and further implicate the remarkable interweaving of bright spots with dark vortices. This is especially noticeable when the beams dynamically oscillate along the optical axis, resulting in the genesis of spatially polarized beams with a knotted framework. The insights gained from our study establish a novel paradigm for exploring interactions of Bessel-like beams with vortex dynamics. This, in turn, has the potential to spark innovations in optical applications, fostering new methodologies to harness and manipulate complex light structures. Our experimental findings could spur new methods of generating logical states of light and new opportunities for material processing control. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Wang, Tianhong (ORCID:0000000169104201)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accelerating Bilevel Optimization With Hierarchical Many-Threaded Parallel Differential Evolution

Bilevel optimization is encountered in many relevant real-world applications. The main feature of this type of problem is that an upper-level optimization problem is constrained by a nested lower-level optimization problem. Because of this nested structure, bilevel problems (BLPs) are usually computationally expensive to solve. Differential evolution (DE) has demonstrated promising results in solving BLPs of relatively small scales. As the problem scale increases, the decision space becomes intrinsically larger, requiring a growing number of function evaluations for the method to work properly. In this context, heavy parallelization and high-performance computing techniques are indispensable to enable the resolution of more complex and challenging optimization problems. Hence, we propose a hierarchical many-threaded parallel DE approach for BLPs, where both levels are parallelized. The computational experiments demonstrate that the parallel implementation achieved runtime speeds ranging from 44 to 2559 times faster than the sequential version on a well-known scalable SMD benchmark test problem when executed on an NVIDIA A100 GPU. The findings indicate that the algorithm’s convergence is strongly influenced by the number of both upper- and lower-level generations. Moreover, the success of experiments with large-scale problems is closely linked to the choice of small population sizes.

Dufek, Amanda S↗
DOE OSTI2022

Illuminating otoliths: New insights for life history of Balistes triggerfishes

Our understanding of fish life-history strategies is informed by key biological processes, such as growth, survival/mortality, recruitment and sexual maturation, used to characterize fish stocks (populations). Characterizing the life-history traits of fish populations requires the application of accurate age estimation for managed species. Grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus and queen triggerfish Balistes vetula are important reef-associated species for commercial and recreational fisheries in the Atlantic Ocean. Both species exhibit a unique reproductive strategy for large-bodied fisheries-targeted reef fishes in that they are nesting benthic spawners and invest substantial energy in defence and care of their benthic nests and fertilized eggs. Until recently, our understanding of the life-history strategies of triggerfishes assumed the main method used to obtain age estimates, increments counted from thin sections of the first dorsal spine, provided an accurate characterization of population age-based parameters. However, results from bomb radiocarbon validation studies on the two Balistes species demonstrated that spines do not provide accurate ages, but sagittal otoliths do. The main goal of the current study was to provide an updated understanding for triggerfish life-history strategies by using otolith-based age estimates to characterize population age structure and growth for grey triggerfish and queen triggerfish from waters of the south-eastern U.S. Atlantic. The current study is the first to report on sex-specific age and growth information for grey triggerfish using the Δ 14 C-validated otolith-based age estimation method and the results indicate that the previous characterization of Balistes species as exhibiting moderately rapid growth and as relatively short-lived, based on spine-derived age estimates, are flawed. Otolith-based ages indicated that grey triggerfish and queen triggerfish are moderately slow-growing and long-lived species, attaining maximum ages of 21 and 40 years, respectively. Management efforts for triggerfishes should evaluate these new insights and incorporate the results of otolith-based age estimation into future population monitoring efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential Lifshitz transition at optimal substitution in nematic pnictide Ba 1 x Sr x Ni 2 As 2

BaNi 2 As 2 is a structural analog of the pnictide superconductor BaFe 2 As 2 , which, like the iron-based superconductors, hosts a variety of ordered phases including charge density waves (CDWs), electronic nematicity, and superconductivity. Upon isovalent Sr substitution on the Ba site, the charge and nematic orders are suppressed, followed by a sixfold enhancement of the superconducting transition temperature (T c ). To understand the mechanisms responsible for enhancement of T c , we present high-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) measurements of the Ba 1-x Sr x Ni 2 As 2 series, which agree well with our density functional theory (DFT) calculations throughout the substitution range. Analysis of our ARPES-validated DFT results indicates a Lifshitz transition and reasonably nested electron and hole Fermi pockets near optimal substitution where T c is maximum. These nested pockets host Ni d xz /d yz orbital compositions, which we associate with the enhancement of nematic fluctuations, revealing unexpected connections to the iron-pnictide superconductors. This gives credence to a scenario in which nematic fluctuations drive an enhanced T c .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

SuperNeuro: A Fast and Scalable Simulator for Neuromorphic Computing

In many neuromorphic workflows, simulators play a vital role for important tasks such as training spiking neural networks, running neuroscience simulations, and designing, implementing, and testing neuromorphic algorithms. Currently available simulators cater to either neuroscience workflows (e.g., NEST and Brian2) or deep learning workflows (e.g., BindsNET). Problematically, the neuroscience-based simulators are slow and not very scalable, and the deep learning-based simulators do not support certain functionalities that are typical of neuromorphic workloads (e.g., synaptic delay). In this paper, we address this gap in the literature and present SuperNeuro, which is a fast and scalable simulator for neuromorphic computing capable of both homogeneous and heterogeneous simulations as well as GPU acceleration. We also present preliminary results that compare SuperNeuro to widely used neuromorphic simulators such as NEST, Brian2, and BindsNET in terms of computation times. We demonstrate that SuperNeuro can be approximately 10×--300× faster than some of the other simulators for small sparse networks. On large sparse and large dense networks, SuperNeuro can be approximately 2.2×--3.4× faster than the other simulators, respectively.

Date, Prasanna↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wind ramp events validation in NWP forecast models during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) using the Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M)

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is a multi-agency field campaign held in the Columbia Gorge area (October 2015 - March 2017). The main goal of the project is to understand and improve the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in complex terrain, particularly beneficial for the wind energy industry. This region is well-known for its excellent wind resource. One of the biggest challenges for wind power production is the accurate forecasting of wind ramp events (large changes of generated power over short periods of time). Poor forecasting of the ramps requires large and sudden adjustments in conventional power generation, ultimately increasing the costs of power. A Ramp Tool and Metric (RT&M) was developed during the first WFIP experiment, held in the U.S. Great Plains (September 2011 - August 2012). The RT&M was designed to explicitly measure the skill of NWP models at forecasting wind ramp events. Here we apply the RT&M to 80-m (turbine hub-height) wind speeds measured by 19 sodars and 3 lidars, and to forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), 3-km, and from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST), 750-m horizontal grid spacing, models. The diurnal and seasonal distribution of ramp events are analyzed, finding a noticeable diurnal variability for spring and summer but less for fall and especially winter. Also, winter has fewer ramps compared to the other seasons. The model skill at forecasting ramp events, including the impact of the modification to the model physical parameterizations, was finally investigated.

Djalalova, Irina V.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of integrated proteomics and transcriptomics signature of alcohol-associated liver disease using machine learning

Distinguishing between alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis (AC) remains a diagnostic challenge. In this study, we used machine learning with transcriptomics and proteomics data from liver tissue and peripheral mononuclear blood cells (PBMCs) to classify patients with alcohol-associated liver disease. The conditions in the study were AH, AC, and healthy controls. We processed 98 PBMC RNAseq samples, 55 PBMC proteomic samples, 48 liver RNAseq samples, and 53 liver proteomic samples. First, we built separate classification and feature selection pipelines for transcriptomics and proteomics data. The liver tissue models were validated in independent liver tissue datasets. Next, we built integrated gene and protein expression models that allowed us to identify combined gene-protein biomarker panels. For liver tissue, we attained 90% nested-cross validation accuracy in our dataset and 82% accuracy in the independent validation dataset using transcriptomic data. We attained 100% nested-cross validation accuracy in our dataset and 61% accuracy in the independent validation dataset using proteomic data. For PBMCs, we attained 83% and 89% accuracy with transcriptomic and proteomic data, respectively. The integration of the two data types resulted in improved classification accuracy for PBMCs, but not liver tissue. We also identified the following gene-protein matches within the gene-protein biomarker panels: CLEC4M-CLC4M, GSTA1-GSTA2 for liver tissue and SELENBP1-SBP1 for PBMCs. In this study, machine learning models had high classification accuracy for both transcriptomics and proteomics data, across liver tissue and PBMCs. The integration of transcriptomics and proteomics into a multi-omics model yielded improvement in classification accuracy for the PBMC data. The set of integrated gene-protein biomarkers for PBMCs show promise toward developing a liquid biopsy for alcohol-associated liver disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing springtime vertebrate prey of sympatric mesopredators in the southeastern United States using metabarcoding analysis

Coyotes (Canis latrans) colonized the eastern United States over the last century and formed a 3-species predator guild with bobcats (Lynx rufus) and gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) across much of the southeastern United States. Diets among the three species vary along with respective impacts on game species such as white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). To determine predation impacts on vertebrate prey and dietary overlap in consumption of prey items, we assessed diets of coyote, bobcat, and gray fox during spring, coinciding with white-tailed deer fawning and wild turkey nesting and brood rearing. We sampled across three sites along the Savannah River in South Carolina from mid-May through mid-June of 2020–2021. We collected 180 scat samples along 295.9 kilometers (71.1–122.4 km/site) of unpaved secondary roads and used DNA metabarcoding to determine vertebrate diet items. We identified predator species of scat using DNA metabarcoding and species-specific mtDNA fragment analysis (153 were coyote, 20 bobcat, and seven gray fox). Overall, we found evidence that two species, coyote and bobcat, consumed deer while all three consumed turkeys. Frequency of deer in the diet varied across sites for coyotes from 62–86% and wild turkey was present with a frequency of occurrence of 9% for coyotes, 5% for bobcats, and 14% for gray fox. Vertebrate diet specialization was evident across predator species with high frequency of deer in coyote diets, rabbits and small mammals in bobcat diets, and herpetofauna in gray fox diets. During deer fawning and wild turkey nesting and brood rearing, dietary overlap appears to be mediated by disparate selection of prey items, which reduced competition among coyotes, bobcats, and gray foxes. Use of DNA metabarcoding may augment our understanding of dietary preferences within this predator guild by providing increased resolution of diet composition among important game species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM2): Improved subgrid hillslope hydrologic connectivity

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra hillslope hydrologic processes into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The current ELM represents water movement primarily through vertical processes, such as precipitation, canopy interception, evaporation, infiltration, and soil water movement. Lateral water movement—such as surface runoff, subsurface flow, and river transport—plays a significant role in the hydrological cycle, especially in regions with varied topography. While E3SM includes a runoff routing component representing water transport in the river network, the lateral transport of water at the subgrid scale within the land model has previously not been taken into account. With the recent development of topographic units within the ELM subgrid data structure, there is an opportunity to simulate hillslope hydrologic connectivity by introducing water transport along topographic gradients. We expect that more realistic representation of hillslope hydrologic processes will lead to improved predictions of both soil water content and river network flows. Lateral transport of water at and near the surface is represented as a sub-grid process in this new code development. Water is tracked as it moves from higher to lower elevations within a gridcell. This capability uses the nested hierarchical sub-grid scheme within ELM to connect water fluxes from sub-grid elements with higher elevation to those with lower elevation. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the hillslope hydrology processes added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving tide-estuary representation in MPAS-Ocean (Final Report)

The overarching goal of this research is to produce a skill-assessed tide-estuary representation, including BGC (biogeochemistry) components of the ecosystem, into the MPAS-O global climate modeling system. Specifically, in the original proposal we proposed one-way nesting, into global MPAS-O, of a high-resolution model for TES (tidal and estuary systems) including the coupling of the BGC components. We have completed the proposed tasks during the past 4 years. Specifically, after extensive consultation with the MPAS-O group during the first year, we have decided to go beyond the original proposal and to two-way nest SCHISM into MPAS-O. As a result, SCHISM-CoSiNE (with CoSiNE being the BGC model) is now fully integrated into MPAS-O as a subroutine (more precisely, an analysis member) and can be invoked as MPAS-O is running with two-way exchange of information between the TES and global models (with proper spatial interpolation done on the fly). As originally proposed, we have also developed the new finite-volume (FV) model MPAS-OI (aka ELCIRC-sub) for TES. We have conducted several tests using the coupled MPAS-SCHISM- CoSiNE model and also MPAS-OI for Columbia River, San Francisco Bay and Chesapeake Bay. Four journal publications have been produced so far as the result of the project and 1 is under review (cf. Publication section). With these achievements, we will be ready to conduct fully coupled simulations of TES and global ocean anywhere, as soon as some missing capabilities in MPAS-O (e.g. tides, improved ability to handle the boundary conditions, and streamlining of the global BGC model) are worked out. The significance of the outcome of this project cannot be overstated. It marks the first time, as far as we know, that a global climate model is tightly coupled to a bona fide nearshore and terrestrial model (SCHISM system); in fact SCHISM is the first bona fide compound flooding model that seamlessly covers the coastal ocean, estuaries, rivers and watersheds (Ye et al. 2020; Zhang et al. 2020). The coupled model will reduce the errors and uncertainties of the MPAS-O global climate model system. It also complements and extends on-going E3SM project, as the latter seeks in the long-term to include components required to simulate impacts of sea-level change and storm surge on coastal regions, including wave models and focusing resolution in coastal and storm-track regions, as an important component of the Cryosphere-ocean system. Note that a spectral wave model (the unstructured-grid version of Wave Watch III, aka Wind Wave Model) is already incorporated inside the SCHISM system and is therefore directly accessible in the coupled system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗