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NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

Risk Analysis↗

NASA NTRS1990

Electric and thermal conductivities of quenched neutron star crusts

The electric and thermal conductivities in the outer crustal matter of a neutron star quenched into a solid state by cooling are estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation of freezing transition for dense plasmas. The conductivities are calculated by the precise evaluation of the scattering integrals, using the procedure of Ichimaru et al. (1983) and Iyetomi and Ichimaru (1983). The results predict the conductivities lower, by a factor of about 3, than those with the single-phonon approximation.

Ogata, Shuji↗

NASA NTRS2003

Modeling Charge Collection in Detector Arrays

A detector array charge collection model has been developed for use as an engineering tool to aid in the design of optical sensor missions for operation in the space radiation environment. This model is an enhancement of the prototype array charge collection model that was developed for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) program. The primary enhancements were accounting for drift-assisted diffusion by Monte Carlo modeling techniques and implementing the modeling approaches in a windows-based code. The modeling is concerned with integrated charge collection within discrete pixels in the focal plane array (FPA), with high fidelity spatial resolution. It is applicable to all detector geometries including monolithc charge coupled devices (CCDs), Active Pixel Sensors (APS) and hybrid FPA geometries based on a detector array bump-bonded to a readout integrated circuit (ROIC).

Hardage, Donna↗

NASA NTRS2005

Simulation Analysis of Computer-Controlled pressurization for Mixture Ratio Control

A procedural code (C++) simulation was developed to investigate potentials for mixture ratio control of pressure-fed spacecraft rocket propulsion systems by measuring propellant flows, tank liquid quantities, or both, and using feedback from these measurements to adjust propellant tank pressures to set the correct operating mixture ratio for minimum propellant residuals. The pressurization system eliminated mechanical regulators in favor of a computer-controlled, servo- driven throttling valve. We found that a quasi-steady state simulation (pressure and flow transients in the pressurization systems resulting from changes in flow control valve position are ignored) is adequate for this purpose. Monte-Carlo methods are used to obtain simulated statistics on propellant depletion. Mixture ratio control algorithms based on proportional-integral-differential (PID) controller methods were developed. These algorithms actually set target tank pressures; the tank pressures are controlled by another PID controller. Simulation indicates this approach can provide reductions in residual propellants.

Alexander, Leslie A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Integrated Computational Materials Engineering for Quantifying Performance Impacts of Microstructure and Defect Interactions in Powder Bed Fusion Parts

Powder bed fusion (PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) enables the creation of parts with complexity and functionality levels that were previously impossible with traditional manufacturing methods. By modifying the laser power, hatch spacing, or the numerous other processing parameters, the PBF process supports the production of a wide set of materials and geometries. However, that same process parameter design flexibility causes the process-design space of PBF to be massive and expensive to explore experimentally. Another challenge is quality variation across a build. As a part is being built, geometric variance between locations, such as at a thin-wall section vs. the bulk material, may cause the specified processing parameters to no longer be acceptable for producing defect-free printing. Furthermore, if the processing parameters deviate during the print process, it is difficult to assess if the part will still perform satisfactorily. Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) provides a way to understand and address these various challenges. This talk will present advancements in process-structure simulations of PBF at NASA Langley Research Center. The ability to simulate grain-scale PBF microstructures using the Physically Based Monte Carlo method will be demonstrated and compared to experimental measurements. Techniques for simulating three-dimensional lack-of-fusion and keyhole porosity defects based on the specific processing conditions and approaches for integrating the two porosity prediction techniques alongside the computational microstructure evolution models will be shown. Finally, the integration of simulated PBF microstructures, embedded process defects, and crystal plasticity finite element models to elucidate the interaction of porosity and microstructure on micromechanical fields will be demonstrated. These integrated techniques demonstrate an example of using ICME to relate processing to performance for PBF AM materials. With continued maturity, it is hoped that such ICME approaches will lead to next-generation computational-materials supported qualification and certification of AM parts.

Additive manufacturing↗

NASA NTRS1985

Accumulation of the Terrestrial Planets

The validity of the two body approximation in calculations of planetary growth is examined. Use of this approximation is essential to practical 3 dimensional simulations of planetary growth. With regard to gravitational perturbations, the changes in semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination resulting from close planetesimal encounters (near 1 A.U.) out to 10 Tisserand sphere of influence radii were calculated by two and three dimensional numerical integration. These were compared with the results of treating the encounter as a two body problem, as is customary in Monte Carlo calculations of orbital evolution and in numerical and analytical studies of planetary accumulation. It is found that for values of (V/V sub e) approx. 0.35 (V = relative velocity, V = escape velocity of largest body), the two body approximation fails to describe the outcome of individual encounters. In this low velocity region, the two body gravitational focusing cross section is no longer valid.

Wetherill, G. W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Development of Design Tools for Fault Tolerant Quantum Dot Cellular Automata Based Logic

We are developing software to explore the fault tolerance of quantum dot cellular automata gate architectures in the presence of manufacturing variations and device defects. The Topology Optimization Methodology using Applied Statistics (TOMAS) framework extends the capabilities of the A Quantum Interconnected Network Array Simulator (AQUINAS) by adding front-end and back-end software and creating an environment that integrates all of these components. The front-end tools establish all simulation parameters, configure the simulation system, automate the Monte Carlo generation of simulation files, and execute the simulation of these files. The back-end tools perform automated data parsing, statistical analysis and report generation.

Armstrong, Curtis D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Comparisons of Integrated Radiation Transport Models with Microdosimetry Data in Spaceflight

Astronauts are exposed to galactic cosmic rays (GCR), trapped protons, and possible solar particle events (SPE) during spaceflight. For such complicated mixtures of radiation types and kinetic energies, tissue equivalent proportional counters (TEPC's) represent a simple time-dependent approach for radiation monitoring. Of interest in radiation protection is the average quality factor of a radiation field defined as a function of linear energy transfer, LET, Q(sub ave)(LET). However TEPC's measure the average quality factors as a function of lineal energy (y), Q(sub ave)(y) defined as the average energy deposition in a volume divided by the average chord length of the volume. Lineal energy, y deviates from LET due to energy straggling, delta-ray escape or entry, and nuclear fragments produced in the detector. Using integrated space radiation models that includes the transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN, the quantum nuclear interaction model, QMSFRG, and results from Monte-Carlo track simulations of TEPC's response to ions, we consider comparisons of model calculations to TEPC results from NASA missions in low Earth orbit and make predictions for lunar and Mars missions. Good agreement between the model and measured spectra from past NASA missions is found. A finding of this work is that TEPC's values for trapped or solar protons of Q(sub ave)(y) range from 1.9-2.5, overestimating Q(sub ave)(LET), which ranges from 1.4-1.6 with both quantities increasing with shielding depth due to nuclear secondaries Comparisons for the complete GCR spectra show that Q(sub ave)(LET) for GCR is approximately 3.5-4.5, while TEPC's measure 2.9-3.4 for Q(sub ave)(y) with the GCR values decreasing with depth as heavy ions are absorbed in shielding material. Our results support the use of TEPC's for space radiation environmental monitoring when computational analysis is used for proper data interpretation.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Transport Methods Development

Improved spacecraft shield design requires early entry of radiation constraints into the design process to maximize performance and minimize costs. As a result, we have been investigating high-speed computational procedures to allow shield analysis from the preliminary design concepts to the final design. In particular, we will discuss the progress towards a full three-dimensional and computationally efficient deterministic code for which the current HZETRN evaluates the lowest order asymptotic term. HZETRN is the first deterministic solution to the Boltzmann equation allowing field mapping within the International Space Station (ISS) in tens of minutes using standard Finite Element Method (FEM) geometry common to engineering design practice enabling development of integrated multidisciplinary design optimization methods. A single ray trace in ISS FEM geometry requires 14 milliseconds and severely limits application of Monte Carlo methods to such engineering models. A potential means of improving the Monte Carlo efficiency in coupling to spacecraft geometry is given in terms of reconfigurable computing and could be utilized in the final design as verification of the deterministic method optimized design.

Wilson, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A space radiation transport method development

Improved spacecraft shield design requires early entry of radiation constraints into the design process to maximize performance and minimize costs. As a result, we have been investigating high-speed computational procedures to allow shield analysis from the preliminary design concepts to the final design. In particular, we will discuss the progress towards a full three-dimensional and computationally efficient deterministic code for which the current HZETRN evaluates the lowest-order asymptotic term. HZETRN is the first deterministic solution to the Boltzmann equation allowing field mapping within the International Space Station (ISS) in tens of minutes using standard finite element method (FEM) geometry common to engineering design practice enabling development of integrated multidisciplinary design optimization methods. A single ray trace in ISS FEM geometry requires 14 ms and severely limits application of Monte Carlo methods to such engineering models. A potential means of improving the Monte Carlo efficiency in coupling to spacecraft geometry is given in terms of re-configurable computing and could be utilized in the final design as verification of the deterministic method optimized design. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

NASA Center JSC↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Approach for the Assessment of System Upset Resilience

This report describes an approach for the assessment of upset resilience that is applicable to systems in general, including safety-critical, real-time systems. For this work, resilience is defined as the ability to preserve and restore service availability and integrity under stated conditions of configuration, functional inputs and environmental conditions. To enable a quantitative approach, we define novel system service degradation metrics and propose a new mathematical definition of resilience. These behavioral-level metrics are based on the fundamental service classification criteria of correctness, detectability, symmetry and persistence. This approach consists of a Monte-Carlo-based stimulus injection experiment, on a physical implementation or an error-propagation model of a system, to generate a system response set that can be characterized in terms of dimensional error metrics and integrated to form an overall measure of resilience. We expect this approach to be helpful in gaining insight into the error containment and repair capabilities of systems for a wide range of conditions.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗

NASA NTRS2014

Optimizing Medical Kits for Spaceflight

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulation outcomes describing the impact of medical events on the mission may be used to optimize the allocation of resources in medical kits. Efficient allocation of medical resources, subject to certain mass and volume constraints, is crucial to ensuring the best outcomes of in-flight medical events. We implement a new approach to this medical kit optimization problem. METHODS We frame medical kit optimization as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing a dynamic programming technique. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 different mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the probability of evacuation and maximizing the Crew Health Index (CHI) for each mission subject to mass and volume constraints. Simulation outcomes using these kits were also compared to outcomes using kits optimized..RESULTS The optimized medical kits generated by the algorithm described here resulted in predicted mission outcomes more closely approached the unlimited-resource scenario for Crew Health Index (CHI) than the implementation in under all optimization priorities. Furthermore, the approach described here improves upon in reducing evacuation when the optimization priority is minimizing the probability of evacuation. CONCLUSIONS This algorithm provides an efficient, effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions using the Integrated Medical Model.

Optimization↗

NASA NTRS2016

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

Probability Theory↗

NASA NTRS2007

GLAST Large Area Telescope - Design and Optimization of Anti-Coincidence Detector

The gamma-ray Large Area Telescope (GLAST) with LAT as its main instrument is now in the final stage of integration into the spacecraft and is scheduled for launch in November 2007. The Anti-Coincidence Detector (ACD) is one of the key telescope systems, providing much of the charged particle background rejection. Taking into account the required large ACD detecting area (more than 8 sq m) and high efficiency of relativistic single charged particle detection (greater than 0.9997 over the entire ACD area), the design was very challenging. It included the choice of conceptual design, extensive Monte Carlo simulations and trade-offs of the experimental techniques, supported by numerous bench tests, custom electronics, careful mechanical design and extensive mechanical/environmental tests, precision fabrication and finally the decisive step- final integration and system-level tests. Currently the LAT (with ACD integrated) is integrated into the spacecraft and undergoing the numerous spacecraft-level tests

Moiseev, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS1991

Local and overall aerodynamic coefficients for bodies in hypersonic, rarefied flow

A computational method is given for the prediction of local pressure and viscous shear stress on windward surfaces of bluff, convex, axisymmetric or quasi-axisymmetric, hypersonic bodies in the transitional, rarefied flow regime. Overall aerodynamic forces and moments are computed by integration of the local quantities. The method is based upon a correlation of local pressure and shear stress computed by the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) numerical technique for cold wall, real gas conditions and some supplemental data from low-density, hypersonic wind tunnels. The relative simplicity of the method makes it feasible to do the necessary calculations with a personal computer. Two-dimensional shapes and leeward surfaces are not included in the scope of the method as it is presented here. Results are compared with DSMC computations for both local and overall coefficients. The latter includes sphere and blunt cone drag as well as lift and pitching moment coefficients for the NASA AFE vehicle at various angles of attack. Very satisfactory agreement is shown.

Potter, J. Leith↗

NASA NTRS1998

Inverse Compton Scattering in Mildly Relativistic Plasma

We investigated the effect of inverse Compton scattering in mildly relativistic static and moving plasmas with low optical depth using Monte Carlo simulations, and calculated the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect in the cosmic background radiation. Our semi-analytic method is based on a separation of photon diffusion in frequency and real space. We use Monte Carlo simulation to derive the intensity and frequency of the scattered photons for a monochromatic incoming radiation. The outgoing spectrum is determined by integrating over the spectrum of the incoming radiation using the intensity to determine the correct weight. This method makes it possible to study the emerging radiation as a function of frequency and direction. As a first application we have studied the effects of finite optical depth and gas infall on the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (not possible with the extended Kompaneets equation) and discuss the parameter range in which the Boltzmann equation and its expansions can be used. For high temperature clusters (k(sub B)T(sub e) greater than or approximately equal to 15 keV) relativistic corrections based on a fifth order expansion of the extended Kompaneets equation seriously underestimate the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect at high frequencies. The contribution from plasma infall is less important for reasonable velocities. We give a convenient analytical expression for the dependence of the cross-over frequency on temperature, optical depth, and gas infall speed. Optical depth effects are often more important than relativistic corrections, and should be taken into account for high-precision work, but are smaller than the typical kinematic effect from cluster radial velocities.

Molnar, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Machine Learning Based Path Planning for Improved Rover Navigation

Enhanced AutoNav (ENav), the baseline surface navigation software for NASA’s Perseverance rover, sorts a list of candidate paths for the rover to traverse, then uses the Approximate Clearance Evaluation (ACE) algorithm to evaluate whether the most highly ranked paths are safe. ACE is crucial for maintaining the safety of the rover, but is computationally expensive. If the most promising candidates in the list of paths are all found to be infeasible, ENav must continue to search the list and run time-consuming ACE evaluations until a feasible path is found. In this paper, we present two heuristics that, given a terrain heightmap around the rover, produce cost estimates that more effectively rank the candidate paths before ACE evaluation. The first heuristic uses Sobel operators and convolution to incorporate the cost of traversing high-gradient terrain. The second heuristic uses a machine learning (ML) model to predict areas that will be deemed untraversable by ACE. We used physics simulations to collect training data for the ML model and to run Monte Carlo trials to quantify navigation performance across a variety of terrains with various slopes and rock distributions. Compared to ENav's baseline performance, integrating the heuristics can lead to a significant reduction in ACE evaluations and average computation time per planning cycle, increase path efficiency, and maintain or improve the rate of successful traverses. This strategy of targeting specific bottlenecks with ML while maintaining the original ACE safety checks provides an example of how ML can be infused into planetary science missions and other safety-critical software.

Yue, Yisong↗