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DOE OSTI2020

LOGOS

LOGOS is a software package which contains a set of discrete optimization models that can be employed for capital budgeting optimization problems. More specifically, provided a set of items (characterized by cost and reward values) and constraints, these models select the best combination of items which maximizes overall reward and satisfies the provided constraints. The developed models are based on different versions of the knapsack optimization algorithms. Two main classes of optimization models have been initially developed: deterministic and stochastic. Stochastic optimization models evolve deterministic models by explicitly considering data uncertainties (associated to constraints or item cost and reward). These models can be employed as stand-alone models or interfaced with the INL developed RAVEN code to propagate data uncertainties and analyze the generated data (i.e., sensitivity analysis).

Wang, Congjian↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improvements to CTF Closure Models for Modelling of Two-Phase Flow

This report documents the efforts to improve the CTF prediction of void fraction and two-phase pressure drop by improving two-phase closure models. Previous validation activities have revealed that CTF tends to overpredict void fraction and two-phase pressure drop. In response to this, two approaches were taken to improve CTF’s predictive capabilities. Based on findings that the interfacial drag and subcooled boiling models significantly impact void prediction, alternative closure models for these physical effects were found and implemented into the code. An extensive assessment was performed by using the existing and newly added two-phase experimental data, which showed that void prediction, wall temperature, and two-phase pressure-drop results are improved by using the newly implemented models. A second approach for improving CTF modeling accuracy involved the use of a Bayesian calibration process that uses CTF validation data to optimize selected modeling coefficients and closure model multipliers to achieve a more accurate prediction of experimental results. A similar assessment was performed with calibrated models that improved the void and pressure-drop prediction for test cases that were both included and not included in the calibration dataset. Results of this study will be used to change the models used in CTF to achieve more accurate BWR analyses moving forward. This study also identified opportunities for improving additional closure models and other opportunities to use calibration techniques to improve CTF.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (Final Report)

Within the Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (HBPS), work at UT-Austin was aimed at improved verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) for edge plasma simulations and on performing gyrokinetics simulations of pedestal instabilities and turbulence in order to expand foundational understanding of pedestal transport. Regarding VVUQ, the accomplishments can be summarized as follows. First, it was shown that the Moment Preserving Constrained Resampling technique, when applied periodically in particle-in-cell simulations in the XGC code, can dramatically improve the accuracy of the simulation at essentially equivalent computational cost. Second, a technique for estimating model correlations, which are required to solve the model selection and sample allocation problem in multifidelity UQ techniques, without sampling the highest fidelity, most computationally expensive model, was developed and demonstrated. Third, previously developed methods for estimating statistical and discretization errors were applied to numerical methods relevant to edge plasma simulations, namely in particle-in-cell-based approaches, and shown to work. Finally, benchmark studies for comparing gyrokinetic codes were developed and performed, leading to reasonable agreement between four commonly used codes. Regarding physics studies, gyrokinetic simulations to investigate microtearing modes in the DIII-D pedestal were performed using the GENE code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The galaxy–halo connection of emission-line galaxies in IllustrisTNG

ABSTRACT We employ the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG-300-1 to explore the halo occupation distribution (HOD) and environmental dependence of luminous star-forming emission-line galaxies (ELGs) at z ∼ 1. Such galaxies are key targets for current and upcoming cosmological surveys. We select model galaxies through cuts in colour–colour space allowing for a direct comparison with the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) surveys and then compare them with galaxies selected based on specific star formation rate (sSFR) and stellar mass. We demonstrate that the ELG populations are twice more likely to reside in lower density regions (sheets) compared with the mass-selected populations and twice less likely to occupy the densest regions of the cosmic web (knots). We also show that the colour-selected and sSFR-selected ELGs exhibit very similar occupation and clustering statistics, finding that the agreement is best for lower redshifts. In contrast with the mass-selected sample, the occupation of haloes by a central ELG peaks at ∼20 per cent. We furthermore explore the dependence of the HOD and the autocorrelation on environment, noticing that at fixed halo mass, galaxies in high-density regions cluster about 10 times more strongly than low-density ones. This result suggests that we should model carefully the galaxy–halo relation and implement assembly bias effects into our models (estimated at ∼4 per cent of the clustering of the DESI colour-selected sample at z = 0.8). Finally, we apply a simple mock recipe to recover the clustering on large scales (r ≳ 1 Mpc h−1) to within 1 per cent by augmenting the HOD model with an environment dependence, demonstrating the power of adopting flexible population models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Plasma-catalyst modeling for materials selection: challenges and opportunities in nitrogen oxidation

Reliable kinetic models are essential to rationalize observations and to guide the selection of appropriate plasma-catalyst combinations. Kinetic models coupling plasma- and heterogeneous-catalytic-chemistries, however, are primitive. Here, we combine reduced plasma chemistries and density functional theory parameterized surface reactions to model NO formation from N2 oxidation, an alternative nitrogen fixation process. We first show plasma excited species can enhance turnover frequencies of both Pt and Au. The enhancing potential is a function of plasma species and their densities. We then compare NO production between plasma/Pt and plasma/Au with an integral reactor model and explore the dependence of NO production as a function of plasma conditions, reactor configurations and chemical compositions. Plasma/Pt generates more NO than plasma/Au under most thermal and plasma parametric conditions. Plasma/Au outperforms plasma/Pt under high plasma excitations at low temperatures. Furthermore, these results highlight that selection of plasma-catalyst combinations should consider the properties of plasmas, materials and the coupling of the two.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pair distribution function analysis of discrete nanomaterials in PDFgui

Pair distribution functions (PDFs) are a leading tool for atomic structure analysis of nanomaterials. However, the most widely used programs for refining atomic structure against PDF data are based on extended crystallographic models, which cannot be applied to discrete, whole nanoparticles. Furthermore, this work describes a straightforward approach to simulate and refine atomistic models of discrete clusters and nanoparticles employing widely used PDF modelling programs such as PDFgui that utilize extended crystallographic models. In this approach, the whole particle to be modelled is contained within an expanded, and otherwise empty, unit cell that is sufficiently large to avoid correlations between atoms in neighbouring unit cells over the r range analyzed. The PDF of the particle is simulated as a composite using two conventional `phases': one that calculates the atom–atom correlations and one that approximates the local number density. This approach is first validated for large nanoparticles that are well modelled by a conventional shape factor model, and then applied to simulate the PDF of discrete particles and low-dimensional materials (graphene and MXene) and to model the experimental PDF data for single-layer FeS nanosheets. A comparison of this approach with the DiffPy-CMI program, which calculates the PDF of discrete species, shows that the composite modelling approach is equally or more accurate. Example input files for implementing this approach within PDFgui and TOPAS, and recommendations for selecting model parameters for reliable application of this refinement strategy, are provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Machine Learning based Approach of Estimating Equivalent Circuit Model Parameters at Different SoCs of Li-ion Batteries from Voltage Relaxation

Abstract: In this study, an approach of estimating the equivalent circuit model (ECM) parameters for Li-ion batteries (LIBs) is proposed based on the voltage value at different intervals while relaxing the LIB after discharge. The typical approach for estimating ECM parameters of a LIB is to conduct electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) measurements at different frequencies and fit them to a predefined circuit model, which requires additional measuring arrangements and specialized devices. The proposed methodology utilizes four different voltages at 0s, 60s, 360s, and 1800s alongside the specific state of charge (SoC) value for a specific constant discharge current value of ~1C until the relaxation stage to train and evaluate three regression-based machine learning models— Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR)—for estimating the ECM parameters of the selected model. Bayesian optimization is employed for hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance for all the regressor models, among which, the GPR provided the best performance with the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of less than 4x10-4 on average for the resistive components and less than 0.27 for capacitive components with excellent R2 scores. The simplicity of the approach enables it to eliminate the need for sophisticated measuring equipment and computation power.

Sagar, Md. Samiul [The University of Alabama (UA)]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point—the number of leading singular vectors to retain—based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Bayesian framework to investigate radiation reaction in strong fields

Recent experiments aiming to measure phenomena predicted by strong-field quantum electrodynamics (SFQED) have done so by colliding relativistic electron beams and high-power lasers. In such experiments, measurements of collision parameters are not always feasible. However, precise knowledge of these parameters is required to accurately test SFQED. Here, we present a novel Bayesian inference procedure that infers collision parameters that could not be measured on-shot. This procedure is applicable to all-optical non-linear Compton scattering experiments investigating radiation reaction. The framework allows multiple diagnostics to be combined self-consistently and facilitates the inclusion of known information pertaining to the collision parameters. Using this Bayesian analysis, the relative validity of the classical, quantum-continuous and quantum-stochastic models of radiation reaction was compared for several test cases, which demonstrates the accuracy and model selection capability of the framework and highlight its robustness if the experimental values of fixed parameters differ from their values in the models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Growth of Well-Defined Model Catalysts for Electrochemistry: From Surface Science Studies to Electrocatalytic CO2 Conversion

We combined ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) surface science techniques, electrochemical measurements, and computational modeling to investigate electrocatalytic systems that are crucial components of the carbon management effort, including oxygen evolution reactions (OER) and CO2 reduction reactions (CO2RR). Well-defined Model catalysts were grown on substrates in the UHV chamber and characterized with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). Selected model electrocatalysts were then tested in electrochemical cells to establish the structure-property relationships in OER and CO2RR. Our results showed that the edge sites of Fe2O3 grown on Au(111) were the most active toward OER and incorporation of Ni at the edge sites (NiFeOx) further boosted their OER activity. We also resolved the size-dependent electrocatalytic CO2-to-CO conversion of the Ag nanoparticle electrocatalysts with average particle diameter between 2 to 6 nm: smaller diameter (< 3 nm) particles favored H2 evolution reaction (HER) due to a high population of Ag edge sites, whereas larger diameter particles favored CO2RR as the population of Ag(100) surface sites grew. We further discovered that electronic interactions between small diameter Ag particles and highly defective carbon supports could break the size-dependent CO2RR selectivity, resulting in highly selective (CO Faradaic Efficiency > 90%) and active Ag nanoparticle electrocatalysts with sizes < 2 nm diameter.

Deng, Xingyi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent equilibrium and transport simulations for NSTX-U plasmas enhanced via machine learning surrogate models

The Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) is an advanced equilibrium and transport code designed for simulating tokamak discharges at computational speeds suitable for control applications. COTSIM’s modular framework enables users to select models that balance accuracy with speed according to specific needs, allowing the code to operate from fast to faster-than-real-time performance levels. This work presents recent enhancements to COTSIM’s predictive accuracy for NSTX-U scenarios, achieved by integrating neural-network-based surrogate models and self-consistent equilibrium calculations. To improve source deposition predictions, a surrogate model for NUBEAM has been incorporated. Additionally, a surrogate model for the Multi-Mode Module (MMM) now supports predictions of anomalous thermal, momentum, and particle diffusivities—key factors for modeling the evolution of temperature and rotation. Each surrogate model was specifically trained for the NSTX-U operational regime to enhance COTSIM’s accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, COTSIM now couples fixed-boundary equilibrium solvers with its transport solvers, enabling self-consistent predictions of plasma profiles and equilibrium evolution over the discharge. Simulation results demonstrate strong agreement between COTSIM and TRANSP predictions for NSTX-U discharges. These substantial advancements expand COTSIM’s utility in model-based control applications for NSTX-U. Potential applications include simultaneous optimization of equilibrium and transport scenarios, integration into digital twins, real-time profile estimation (e.g., temperature and rotation) from limited or noisy measurements, and advanced feedback-based scenario control.

Equilibrium and transport modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy

Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

MILK : a Python scripting interface to MAUD for automation of Rietveld analysis

Modern diffraction experiments ( e.g. in situ parametric studies) present scientists with many diffraction patterns to analyze. Interactive analyses via graphical user interfaces tend to slow down obtaining quantitative results such as lattice parameters and phase fractions. Furthermore, Rietveld refinement strategies ( i.e. the parameter turn-on-off sequences) tend to be instrument specific or even specific to a given dataset, such that selection of strategies can become a bottleneck for efficient data analysis. Managing multi-histogram datasets such as from multi-bank neutron diffractometers or caked 2D synchrotron data presents additional challenges due to the large number of histogram-specific parameters. To overcome these challenges in the Rietveld software Material Analysis Using Diffraction ( MAUD ), the MAUD Interface Language Kit ( MILK ) is developed along with an updated text batch interface for MAUD . The open-source software MILK is computer-platform independent and is packaged as a Python library that interfaces with MAUD . Using MILK , model selection ( e.g. various texture or peak-broadening models), Rietveld parameter manipulation and distributed parallel batch computing can be performed through a high-level Python interface. A high-level interface enables analysis workflows to be easily programmed, shared and applied to large datasets, and external tools to be integrated with MAUD . Through modification to the MAUD batch interface, plot and data exports have been improved. The resulting hierarchical folders from Rietveld refinements with MILK are compatible with Cinema: Debye–Scherrer , a tool for visualizing and inspecting the results of multi-parameter analyses of large quantities of diffraction data. In this manuscript, the combined Python scripting and visualization capability of MILK is demonstrated with a quantitative texture and phase analysis of data collected at the HIPPO neutron diffractometer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗

DOE OSTI2025

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗