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DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Reality for Shoot/No-Shoot Decision Training in Law Enforcement: A Literature Review and Research Agenda

Virtual reality (VR) can materially improve “shoot / no-shoot” (SNS) training by giving officers realistic, repeatable practice making high-stakes decisions under pressure. Traditional tools—live-fire ranges and video simulators—build basics, but they cannot adapt to each officer in real time or fully mirror the complexity of the field. VR closes that gap by creating immersive scenarios that are safer, more flexible, easier to scale across units, and able to capture objective performance data. SNS decisions are not just about marksmanship; they rely on perception, judgment, memory, and the ability to hold fire when a threat is uncertain. Effective training therefore needs realism, decision complexity, and branching outcomes that reflect the true consequences of choices. These elements strengthen recognition of hostile intent while reducing false positives and building the self-control required in ambiguous situations. VR brings specific advantages: dynamic environments, full-body interaction, and the ability to measure performance with precision—enabling targeted feedback and better transfer of learning to the street. At the same time, responsible deployment must address scenario quality (credible environments and behaviors), lawful decision models, and user wellbeing (appropriate stress levels, comfort, and safety). Sandia’s VIPER Lab is positioned to lead this work. The team combines human-performance science, AI/ML, and VR/AR development with a deep equipment bench (e.g., omnidirectional treadmill, eye-tracking, haptics, multiple HMDs). This ecosystem supports building and validating next-generation SNS training that is immersive, measurable, and trustworthy. Bottom line: Investment in VR-enabled SNS training that blends evidence-based design with careful validation and legal safeguards is expected to pay off in safer, more consistent decision-making and improved community trust, delivered through training that is practical to deploy at scale.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Introduction to Special Issue on the Early History of Nuclear Fusion

This introductory paper to the special issue of Fusion Science and Technology commemorates early research on fusion conducted at Los Alamos (the singular entity denoted Los Alamos Laboratory/Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory/Los Alamos National Laboratory at different times is designated “Los Alamos” in this paper) in support of the eventual H-bomb program. We survey the historical origins of the thermonuclear program, what was known of fusion reactions at the outbreak of the war, and the remarkable breakthroughs involving particularly the prospect of deuterium-tritium (DT) reactions conducted during the war, and we summarize the papers in this volume. Much of the nuclear fusion technical history presented herein has not been previously reported. Papers describe aspects of fusion science during these days, on shock hydrodynamics and on electron-radiation coupling, and on nuclear physics including the discoveries of resonances in both the DT cross section and in the lithium tritium-breeding cross section. Three papers follow our colleague Mark Paris’s finding Arthur Ruhlig’s 1938 paper on the first observation of DT fusion: one on how it influenced subsequent Manhattan Project research, another on a modern calculation of that historic experiment, and a third that has repeated the experiment using modern experimental capabilities. Other papers discuss how the first H-bomb test, Ivy Mike, led to the discovery of the new elements einsteinium and fermium and how the DT fusion processes played a key role in our universe’s development after the Big Bang. We also present a paper that analyzes the pioneering Cambridge University 1934 experiment by Marcus Oliphant, Paul Harteck, and Ernest Rutherford where deuterium-deuterium fusion was first observed and that describes how Ernest Lawrence missed identifying fusion in 1933. Finally, we present a summary of early concepts for controlled fusion energy that grew out of wartime discussions at Los Alamos. The papers show how J. Robert Oppenheimer played a leading technical role in the early developments of the H-bomb, before his later opposition—our first paper in this issue addresses the U.S. Department of Energy’s 2022 vacation of the earlier 1954 decision to revoke his security clearance.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian estimation of HIV acquisition dates for prevention trials

Accurate timing estimates of when participants acquire HIV in HIV prevention trials are necessary for determining antibody levels at acquisition. The Antibody-Mediated Prevention (AMP) Studies showed that a passively administered broadly neutralizing antibody can prevent the acquisition of HIV from a neutralization-sensitive virus. We developed a pipeline for estimating the date of detectable HIV acquisition (DDA) in AMP Study participants using diagnostic and viral sequence data. Using a Bayesian strategy that combines three streams of data (REN [rev/vpu/env/Δnef] sequence, GP [gag/Δpol] sequence, and diagnostic) where their 95% credible intervals overlap based on pre-specified criteria and decision rules. We evaluated the performance of our AMP pipeline using PacBio viral sequence data from 41 participants across two prospective acute HIV acquisition cohort studies, FRESH and RV217, with twice-weekly sampling. These cohort studies enrolled young women in South Africa and men and women in Kenya and Thailand, respectively, with a high likelihood of HIV acquisition. In evaluating performance, “true DDA” was the center of bounds between last-negative and first-positive RNA diagnostic tests (median time 4 days, range 2–7 days); bias was the mean difference between estimated and true DDA. Using diagnostic data alone yielded timing estimates with a bias of 2.4 days and root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.9 days. These results were improved using sequence + diagnostic data (bias 1.5 days, RMSE 6.9 days), as well as by restricting sequence-based estimation to samples from ≤5 weeks post-DDA (bias 0.2 days, RMSE 7.8 days).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Agent-based modeling of supply disruptions in the global rare earths market

Several independent assessments have identified rare earth elements (REEs) as critical materials, notably neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy) used in permanent magnets. Factors affecting their criticality include expected growth in demand arising from their unique performance-enhancing properties in consumer, energy, and military applications and the supply risk associated with China's dominance in their production. We demonstrate the use of Argonne's Global Critical Materials (GCMat) agent-based model to explore the possible consequences to REE market dynamics of different types of regional supply disruptions including a temporary loss of production, shutdown of capacity, and diversion of supply. Results suggest that supply disruptions may foster earlier and more REE mine starts outside of China, although some of these mines may not be able to sustain operations post disruption. Further, price and associated market responses such as production, capacity, and demand tended to extend beyond the disruption period. Such market impacts in the magnet supply chain could affect the costs and availability of a number of emerging clean energy technology applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. In the future, GCMat could be used to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies - including recycling, conservation, product substitution, and diversification of supplies - on reducing the severity of disruptions in REE markets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design and testing of ultrasound probe adapters for a robotic imaging platform

Medical imaging-based triage is a critical tool for emergency medicine in both civilian and military settings. Ultrasound imaging can be used to rapidly identify free fluid in abdominal and thoracic cavities which could necessitate immediate surgical intervention. However, proper ultrasound image capture requires a skilled ultrasonography technician who is likely unavailable at the point of injury where resources are limited. Instead, robotics and computer vision technology can simplify image acquisition. As a first step towards this larger goal, here, we focus on the development of prototypes for ultrasound probe securement using a robotics platform. The ability of four probe adapter technologies to precisely capture images at anatomical locations, repeatedly, and with different ultrasound transducer types were evaluated across more than five scoring criteria. Testing demonstrated two of the adapters outperformed the traditional robot gripper and manual image capture, with a compact, rotating design compatible with wireless imaging technology being most suitable for use at the point of injury. Next steps will integrate the robotic platform with computer vision and deep learning image interpretation models to automate image capture and diagnosis. This will lower the skill threshold needed for medical imaging-based triage, enabling this procedure to be available at or near the point of injury.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Xyce Case Study

With the elimination of underground nuclear testing and declining defense budgets, science-based stockpile stewardship requires increased reliance on high performance modeling and simulation of weapon systems. Today's weapon systems are comprised of various electrical components and systems. As a result, there is a need for tools that will allow the use of massively parallel modeling and simulation techniques on high performance computers in existing and future weapons' electrical systems models. The Xyce Parallel Electronic Simulator is a SPICE (Simulation Program with Integrated Circuit Emphasis)- compatible circuit simulator designed to run on large-scale parallel computing platforms, though it can also execute efficiently on a variety of architectures including single processor workstations. As a mature platform for large-scale parallel circuit simulation, Xyce supports standard capabilities available in commercial simulators, in addition to various devices and models specific to Sandia's needs. Specifically, Xyce aids in the design and verification of electrical and electronic circuits and systems prior to weapons' manufacturing and deployment.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

Xyce Case Study

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scaling Containment on a Large Centrifuge

Containment science concerns the trapping or leakage of radioactive cavity gases from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). The most physically relevant data for validation of containment science comes from legacy UNE testing or large field-scale chemical explosions. Field-scale tests can inform on the degree of residual stress imparted to host geology and possible formation of an accompanying gas-containing “stress cage”, for example, as a function of chemical explosion yield. However, field testing can be expensive, difficult to conduct, and challenging to instrument with limitations on data coverage (i.e., the number of boreholes; difficult coring through damage zones). Small-scale laboratory tests are typically simpler to conduct and more thoroughly characterize, but may not include the right scale of containment processes for stress-cage or chimney formation. This report presents the theory and fundamentals of large centrifuge physical modeling, including a history of explosive or similar testing relevant to containment science investigations on centrifuges. Subscale models with embedded chemical explosives in the enhanced gravity of a large centrifuge can represent hundreds of meters of depth and large explosions not otherwise attainable in the laboratory as based on scaling of length, energy, and other processes by the g-factor of the centrifuge (i.e., the number of times larger the centrifugal force is than the gravitational force on the Earth’s surface). The centrifuge uniquely joins the simplicity and exhaustiveness of laboratory-scale characterization with the physics of field-scale processes. This report is part of Sandia National Laboratories’ (SNL’s) effort to prepare for physical modeling with approximately one-meter tall geologic models of stress cage and/or chimney formation on its 29-foot [8.84 m] radius centrifuge with a load capacity of 1.6 million 𝑔-pounds [726 𝑔-ton]. The scaling relationships herein will inform model design decisions and performance requirements for in-flight sensors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cineradiography System and Initial 3D-printed Brain Phantoms

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant cause of death in tactical, sport and civilian populations. According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC) report in 2016, TBI accounted for 227,000 hospitalizations and 60,000 related deaths. In the military, the prevalence of traumatic brain injuries is related to the type of conflict U.S. forces are involved in and are typically classified as mild traumatic brain injuries (mTBIs). Troops returning from Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom had a TBI rate estimated at 15.2% to 22.8%; nearly 320,000 troops. These mTBIs were primarily blast-induced and often lacked any accompanying symptoms. Left untreated, these mild injuries have been linked to chronic disorders and cognitive alterations. One such disorder that has been frequently recorded in literature is chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). CTE is a progressive neurodegenerative tauopathy resulting from repetitive mTBIs. The repetitive head injuries involved in sport, classified as mTBIs, has resulted in CTE development in athletes involved in contact sports. While the association between mTBIs and CTE has been pathologically verified, the mechanisms have yet to be identified. In order to better understand these mechanisms, the use of flash x-ray radiography is being considered.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Laser Wavelength Shift from Splitters and Switches

The Detonation Science and Technology Group (Q-6) operates several photon Doppler velocimetry (PDV) systems as a diagnostic tool for measuring velocities in the 1–10 km/s range during high explosive (HE) detonation experiments. Q-6 uses “heterodyne” PDV systems that are produced by Traverse Solutions and Instrumentation, LLC (TS&I). These heterodyne systems combine wavelength (WL) tunable source and “reference” lasers with a WL offset of 10–100 pm from each other. Properly setting the source and reference WLs for an experiment can be critical for collecting the desired experimental data. The tunable lasers report WL readings in their control software, but these readings are based on a lookup table from a temperature reading and are not able to be calibrated. Therefore, recent test fire programs that require PDV as a diagnostic have also implemented requirements for monitoring the WL of the tunable lasers using a precision WL meter. To monitor the WL of several PDV lasers without disconnecting any patch fibers form the experimental setup, Q-6 developed a system splitters with a coupling ratio (%) of 99:1 and an optical switch with the switch output going to a single WL meter. A brief experiment was developed to determine if the splitters and/or switch introduced any WL bias into the readings. The purpose of this report is to document the system, the experiment, and its results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Pilot Study of Whole-Blood Transcriptomic Analysis to Identify Genes Associated with Repetitive Low-Level Blast Exposure in Career Breachers

Repetitive low-level blast exposure is one of the major occupational health concerns among US military service members and law enforcement. This study seeks to identify gene expression using microRNA and RNA sequencing in whole-blood samples from experienced breachers and unexposed controls. We performed experimental RNA sequencing using Illumina’s HiSeq 2500 Sequencing System, and microRNA analysis using NanoString Technology nCounter miRNA expression panel in whole-blood total RNA samples from 15 experienced breachers and 14 age-, sex-, and race-matched unexposed controls. We identified 10 significantly dysregulated genes between experienced breachers and unexposed controls, with FDR corrected <0.05: One upregulated gene, LINC00996 (long intergenic non-protein coding RNA 996); and nine downregulated genes, IGLV3-16 (immunoglobulin lambda variable 3-16), CD200 (CD200 molecule), LILRB5 (leukocyte immunoglobulin-like receptor B5), ZNF667-AS1 (ZNF667 antisense RNA 1), LMOD1 (leiomodin 1), CNTNAP2 (contactin-associated protein 2), EVPL (envoplakin), DPF3 (double PHD fingers 3), and IGHV4-34 (immunoglobulin heavy variable 4-34). The dysregulated gene expressions reported here have been associated with chronic inflammation and immune response, suggesting that these pathways may relate to the risk of lasting neurological symptoms following high exposures to blast over a career.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Education

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is a multidisciplinary national laboratory that conducts research and development in national security, engineering, materials science, computational modeling, and advanced manufacturing. The laboratory develops innovative technologies to address complex scientific and engineering challenges. This project focuses on the development and evaluation of high-performance absorbing structures through computational design, simulation, and engineering analysis. Absorbing structures are used in applications where damage mitigation, structural protection, and material efficiency are critical performance requirements. The increasing demand for lightweight, high-strength, and highly efficient structural systems has created a need for improved design methodologies capable of maximizing absorption while minimizing weight and material usage. The project utilizes advanced engineering software, including 3D CAD software and FEA, to generate and optimize structural concepts. Computational simulations are performed to evaluate structural behavior under loading conditions, while mathematical analyses are conducted using Python-based tools as well as established analytical equations from material and structural mechanics. The project benefits LANL by supporting the development of advanced design methodologies and improving the understanding of material and structural performance. During the internship term, a significant portion of the design development, simulation, and data analysis activities will be completed. Success of the project depends on collaboration among engineering mentors and technical staff members. Work will be conducted at Los Alamos National Laboratory using laboratory computing resources and engineering software.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Cold Spraying Mild-Steel Powder onto Mild-Steel Substrate for Development of Waste Tank Repair System - 20515

Infrastructure for nuclear waste storage and processing (e.g., waste tanks, transfer pipelines, evaporators) at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site has been in service well beyond its original design life. Past corrosion control methods at Hanford for waste tanks have not been fully successful, as evidenced by leaks forming in tank AY-102, the first double-shell tank (DST) constructed, and significant degradation detected in the primary tanks of AP-102 and AY-101. Failure of infrastructure components can pose a significant risk to the environment, worker safety, and project schedules. Therefore, remotely deployable methods for repairing and extending the service life of the existing tank waste infrastructure are needed. Cold spray has been identified as a potential technique for performing in situ repairs and material buildup for life extension of waste storage and processing infrastructure. Cold-spray repair methods and technology are well-established and are used extensively by industry and the military for making repairs using dissimilar materials. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is evaluating the process of making repairs using mild-steel powder applied to a mild-steel substrate to minimize the galvanic corrosion potential. This paper presents the initial results for a feasibility ('go/no-go') assessment as to whether low-density deposits with sound metallurgic bonds, to build-back steel plate material, can be achieved using existing commercial cold-spray equipment. An assessment of steel-on-steel deposit is necessary to determine if cold spray is a viable candidate for DST carbon steel plate restoration/repair and thus DST service life extension. Powder properties and preparation requirements have been investigated and operating conditions and parameters for depositing a cold-spray buildup of mild steel on a mild-steel substrate have been determined. Soundness of metallurgic bonding as a function of the operating parameters exercised and results from applying cold spray to lay a deposit over simulated small-diameter flaws in 1/2-inch mild-steel plate are presented. Application of in situ cold-spray repair to the DOE complex has the potential to reduce cost and schedule impacts associated with component failures and the need to procure and construct replacement infrastructure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advancing the science of explosive fragmentation and afterburn fireballs though experiments and simulations at the benchtop scale

Detonation of explosive devices produces extremely hazardous fragments and hot, luminous fireballs. Prior experimental investigations of these post-detonation environments have primarily considered devices containing hundreds of grams of explosives. While relevant to many applications, such large- scale testing also significantly restricts experimental diagnostics and provides limited data for model validation. As an alternative, the current work proposes experiments and simulations of the fragmentation and fireballs from commercial detonators with less than a gram of high explosive. As demonstrated here, reduced experimental hazards and increased optical access significantly expand the viability of advanced imaging and laser diagnostics. Notable developments include the first known validation of MHz-rate optical fragment tracking and the first ever Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Scattering (CARS) measures of post-detonation fireball temperatures. While certainly not replacing the need for full-scale verification testing, this work demonstrates new opportunities to accelerate developments of diagnostics and predictive models of post-detonation environments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Speed Diagnostic and Simulation Capabilities for Reacting Hypersonic Reentry Flows (LDRD Final Report)

High-enthalpy hypersonic flight represents an application space of significant concern within the current national-security landscape. The hypersonic environment is characterized by high-speed compressible fluid mechanics and complex reacting flow physics, which may present both thermal and chemical nonequilibrium effects. We report on the results of a three-year LDRD effort, funded by the Engineering Sciences Research Foundation (ESRF) investment area, which has been focused on the development and deployment of new high-speed thermochemical diagnostics capabilities for measurements in the high-enthalpy hypersonic environment posed by Sandia's free-piston shock tunnel. The project has additionally sponsored model development efforts, which have added thermal nonequilibrium modeling capabilities to Sandia codes for subsequent design of many of our shock-tunnel experiments. We have cultivated high-speed, chemically specific, laser-diagnostic approaches that are uniquely co-located with Sandia's high-enthalpy hypersonic test facilities. These tools include picosecond and nanosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering at 100-kHz rates for time-resolved thermometry, including thermal nonequilibrium conditions, and 100-kHz planar laser-induced fluorescence of nitric oxide for chemically specific imaging and velocimetry. Key results from this LDRD project have been documented in a number of journal submissions and conference proceedings, which are cited here. The body of this report is, therefore, concise and summarizes the key results of the project. The reader is directed toward these reference materials and appendices for more detailed discussions of the project results and findings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spatially-Resolved Characterization Techniques and Their Implications for Nuclear Debris Formation.

Debris from nuclear tests has a complex formation process and can inform multiple fields of study such as geology, atmospheric science, shock physics, and chemistry under extreme conditions. Macroscopic nuclear debris forms as the result of fireball interaction with surrounding materials (e.g., structural and environmental component), which rapidly undergo melting and vaporization followed by condensation, convective/diffusive mixing, and solidification over the course of seconds. In atmospheric events, some of this material may disperse over long distances, but much of the material is deposited close-in to ground zero, often in multicomponent, partially (or entirely) amorphous debris formations. During the U.S. nuclear testing program, this material was collected and analyzed, particularly for radionuclide composition. Fallout formation models were developed from nuclear test data based on such radionuclide compositional analyses. These models were not just used to understand fallout dispersion (i.e. the spread of radioactivity over geographical regions) but also guide radiochemical interpretations of historical nuclear tests.6 Developments in analytical techniques over the past several decades have made it possible to make new analyses on historical debris, some of which may be more than a half-century old. For example, inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) has been used to look at the trace elements in glassy fallout material from aboveground nuclear tests (including the Trinity test). Advanced analyses using X-ray absorption allowed for the measurement of oxidation state of fallout constituents, including actinides. The ability to measure trace actinides and their subsequent oxidation state is important to understanding how the surrounding environment may have influenced the resultant fallout composition and may have implications for why certain fractionation trends have been observed. Here we present data from historic nuclear test debris illustrating the power of spatially resolved methods to connect interaction of the near-field environment with the explosion and provide new insights into nuclear debris formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bamboo Bio-composite Truck/Trailer Decking

Bamboo is one of the fastest growing plants in the world. Massively productive, bamboo will maintain that productivity with limited inputs and minimal management resulting in predictable volume and operating margins and with low overhead. The goal of this project was to develop a bamboo bio-composite trailer decking product that replaces apitong, is lighter weight, stronger and luminescent. The collaboration partners, Fontaine, Resource Fiber and IACMI, worked closely to develop the bamboo bio-composite decking to Fontaine Trailer’s (end-user) specifications. The various technological objectives were (a) To conduct a comprehensive Design of Experiments study for bamboo composites to understand the structure-property relationships for different resin composites and bamboo forms (strips, woven, bulk etc); (b) To establish the nail pull out characteristics of trailer deck geometry bamboo composite form. The nail pull out is a critical test in trailer decks; (c) To design, process and prototype select number of trailer decking planks for Fontaine evaluation; and (d) To conduct life cycle analysis to conduct energy calculations from the various conversion steps of the bamboo from crop to product. The project meets DOE/IACMI metrics of reduced embodied energy, lightweighting and lowering the cost of the end product. It also offers a green solution to a value-added application, i.e. trailer decking. The development goals and benefits of bamboo composite decking included: A. Decreased weight when compared to Apitong and Gen 1, thereby reducing operating costs and petroleum usage due to increased miles per gallon. B. Flexibility to allow camber design into trailers. C. Luminescence to increase safety during low light and dark conditions. D. Composite material to maximize use of bamboo bio-composites as substitute for petroleum-based composites. E. Embedded layer(s) of conditioned bamboo for added strength and stability. F. Improved safety over Apitong by temporary cargo indentation in planks for better stability. G. Cradle-to-cradle design so end-of-life becomes beginning-of-life for other products. Resource Fiber’s bamboo biocomposite trailer decking passed nail pullout tests as compared to apitong (incumbent), was lighter weight than apitong, and used less embodied energy particularly when bamboo is sourced domestically. The planks were optimized in the lab setting to the extent possible and successfully installed on the trailer at Fontaine for field testing. Despite the process not being fully optimized due to through-heat and tooling limitations within the budget constraints, the prototype decking withstood 400 cycles of reverse fatigue loading of a 107,000 lb Caterpillar 349F which was extreme conditions of field testing by Fontaine Trailer. Resource Fiber plans to outsource production of a next round of planks with a commercial pultrusion processor, then to do a re-test with Fontaine Trailers. Tooling specific to the part is required. Long-term commercial plans are to continue outsourcing production while supplying bamboo fiber and mats. Commercial markets include heavy haul trailers, military trailers, and decking for marine, industrial and residential use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-phenomenology Yield Characterization

This report serves as the first delivery of a four-year applied science effort to transform and advance the error bounds for the yield estimate of an explosion. Each year’s delivery will be in this form, culminating in the submission of this work for peer review to a scientific journal. Importantly, the yearly progress reports can then also be viewed as expanding drafts working towards a formal journal article submission. For the first tranche of funding, we collaborated with Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) scientists to identify unclassified real-world data that demonstrate and validate our advanced error propagation methods. Collaboration includes visits to AFTAC and telecons. For this development, we illustrate the fusion of seismic, acoustic, optical, and surface effect signatures from an explosion. The mathematics and code being adapted to this specific application (Williams et al., 2021) involves physics models of multiple sensor signatures. We have also identified related physics models and have integrated them into code. Current methods of underground explosion yield estimation for the Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT) have served the US treaty monitoring mission well for decades. A research objective of the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) office of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has always been to provide new technical capabilities for monitoring lower thresholds. The general model and error propagation code to be developed in this project is based on significant advances in error modeling and propagation needed to analyze data at lower detection thresholds. The second tranche of funding for this project began on May 1, 2022, and planned work for the second tranche includes: i) completing the integration of physical model code into the general error model framework; this code accommodates a wide range of linear/nonlinear source models, fixed/ random effects, and frequentist/Bayesian analyses (the purpose of which is not to dictate to users how to analyze data, but instead to allow users the maximum flexibility in their work); ii) illustrative application of code to identified data, and; iii) initial planning with AFTAC researchers on delivery of code to the Common Development Environment at AFTAC, and continued writing of the planned final journal article submission (year two of this progress report), with particular emphasis on descriptions of data identified for this effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗