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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Local Thermochemical Mechanisms in Direct Solar Graphite Synthesis from Methane

Methane pyrolysis is known to produce hydrogen and solid carbon in a variety of thermal processes. However, the generated carbon product typically belongs to a low-value amorphous type. Here, we elucidate the thermochemical mechanisms of a reaction that produces high-quality graphite via direct solar methane pyrolysis on a porous substrate. By comparing graphite deposition rates and local reaction zone temperatures of exposed and shadowed regions from the same experiment, we clarify the effects of thermolysis and photolysis in this emission-free process that both decarbonizes a fuel and produces a critical material for the sustainable energy transition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Activation, Dehydrogenation, and Carbon–Carbon Coupling of Methane by Iridium Cations Studied by Infrared Multiple Photon Dissociation Spectroscopy and Density Functional Theory

Products resulting from the sequential activation of one, two, three, and four methane molecules by atomic iridium cations were characterized by gas-phase infrared multiple photon dissociation spectroscopy and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Iridium cations were generated using a laser ablation source and reacted with methane in a linear radiofrequency ion trap before mass analysis and spectroscopic interrogation in a Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometer coupled to the free-electron laser for intracavity experiments (FELICE) beamline. Product ions were irradiated using infrared light over the 250–1500 cm –1 range. Comparisons between the experimental and DFT-calculated spectra enabled structural determination of the products formed. The observed products include HIrCH + , Ir(CH 2 ) 2 + , H s Ir(C 3 H 5 ) + , and Ir(CH 3 ) s (C 3 H 5 ) + , where the subscript s denotes a syn orientation of the two ligands. Furthermore, formation of the latter two products provides evidence for efficient C–H bond activation and subsequent C–C coupling on the atomic iridium cation.

Chemical reactions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Room-Temperature Methane Oxidation to Formaldehyde Mediated by CoMoO + Gas-Phase Cations

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is a fundamental chemical feedstock with widespread industrial applications. The direct oxidation of methane by oxygen to formaldehyde (CH 4 + 1/2O 2 → H 2 + HCHO) under mild conditions represents an attractive but challenging transformation, as it requires both activation of the inert C–H bonds of CH 4 and suppression of overoxidation to products such as carbon dioxide. In this work, mass spectrometry experiments combined with theoretical calculations reveal that CoMoO + cations can efficiently mediate this transformation at room temperature. The unique electronic structure of CoMoO + facilitates the formation of a crucial CoMoOCH 2 + intermediate during the reaction with CH 4 and prevents methanol formation. In the subsequent oxidation reaction, the Mo atom in CoMoO + serves as the active site for O 2 adsorption, and both Mo and Co atoms act as electron donors to activate O 2 , leading to the formation of the C–O bond in formaldehyde. This work reports the first gas-phase example of achieving conversion of CH 4 to HCHO and its radical derivatives by O 2 at room temperature using heteronuclear non-noble metal cations. Remarkably, the CoMoOCH 2 + cation maintains high reactivity after adsorbing one or two CH 4 molecules. Finally, these findings provide new mechanistic insights into selective methane activation and conversion.

aldehydes↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Oxo to Oxyl to Biradical: Systematic Multireference Calculations of Methane Activation at MOF Nodes

Methane C–H activation at transition-metal sites often involves electronic structures that challenge conventional single-reference electronic structure descriptions. Although Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) is widely used to study catalytic trends, its reliability for reactions involving strongly correlated species remains uncertain. Here we present a systematic multireference investigation of methane activation at metal–organic framework (MOF) node catalysts across the 3d transition-metal series. We introduce an automated workflow for active space selection to enable consistent application of multireference methods, including multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory and n-electron valence state perturbation theory, to these catalytic systems. These calculations show substantial static correlation in the C–H activation reaction step and predict activation barriers that differ from DFT by 30–70 kJ mol–1, with DFT often qualitatively disagreeing in barrier height trends across transition metals. Analysis of multireference wave functions shows that reactivity is governed by the electronic structure of the M–O moiety along a continuum from metal–oxo to oxyl radical and O biradical character. Increased oxygen-centered spin density and weakened M–O bonding are identified as descriptors of catalytic activity which correlate with lower activation barriers.

Wardzala, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examining Daily Temporal Characteristics of Oil and Gas Methane Emissions in the Delaware Basin Using Continuous Tower Observations

Top-down studies have found consistent underestimations in the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methane emissions inventory from the oil and gas (O&G) sector. Many of these studies use observations that bias toward hours when worktime activity occurs. In this study, we analyze over 2 years of methane measurements from a tower network in the Delaware basin to analyze hourly temporal emission patterns. Inversion results suggest a range in emissions from 137 Mg/hr at night to 197 Mg/hr during the day, present during both weekdays and weekends. If these results are applicable to other basins, daytime-influenced methodologies may overestimate daily emission rates by up to 27%. This bias does not reconcile the more than 200% difference between the EPA inventory and top-down estimates in the Delaware basin. This study demonstrates how continuous measurement networks can be combined with detailed activity data to improve bottom-up inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The balance of orbital overlap and orbital energy in the activation of methane by actinide cations: insights from inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry

The actinides present a unique challenge to chemical theory. The classical view of covalent bonding is driven by the extent of spatial overlap of valence orbitals. Modern theory has expanded assessments of covalency to include considerations of orbital energy degeneracy to assess orbital energy mixing between metal and ligand valence orbitals. Actinide–ligand (An–L) bonding has more recently been described as a balance between orbital overlap and orbital energy mixing, where 5f and L valence orbital overlap decreases while energy mixing between An 5f and L valence orbitals increases across the series. To test these existing views, we employed inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry to examine the kinetic energy dependences of reactions of actinide cations, Th + –Am + , with methane. Further, this is the first experimental report of the energy dependences of methane activation reactions involving the cations of Pa, Np, Pu, and Am and the first experimental determination of transuranic An + –D, An + –CD 2 , An + –CD 3 , and An + –CD bond dissociation energies. The correlation of the measured An + –CD 2 bond energies with E p (6d 2 ) indicates that An + 6d orbitals are the dominant contributors in the An + –CD 2 bonds. Close examination of the relative reactivities of An + offers additional support that the balance of classical and modern views of molecular bonding may lie between Np + and Pu + and that the increased reactivity of Th + –Np + may be attributed to the increased spatial extension of the 5f orbitals whereas covalent An + bond formation may be more driven by the decreasing energies of the 5f orbitals across the actinide series.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the thermal effect and methyl radical production in nanosecond repetitively pulsed glow discharges applied to a methane-air flame

In this work, we investigated non-equilibrium plasma produced by nanosecond repetitively pulsed glow discharges applied across a lean premixed methane-air flame. The flame is stationary, axisymmetric, and laminar. The discharges are applied on the symmetry axis crossing the reactant gases, flame front, and product gases, allowing phase-locked averaged measurements and comparisons with axisymmetric numerical simulations. The thermal effect and methyl radical production are quantified in the discharge in the reactant gas region. One-dimensional, two-beam, hybrid, femtosecond-picosecond, coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering is used to acquire spatial and temporal profiles of temperature and oxygen-to-nitrogen concentration ratio. Photo-fragmentation laser-induced fluorescence is used to acquire quantitative two-dimensional profiles of methyl radicals in the discharge providing the first quantitative imaging of methyl produced ahead of a flame by plasma-induced methane dissociation. The spatial profiles of temperature and oxygen-to-nitrogen concentration ratio are in steady state, indicating that individual discharges have an insignificant heating effect. Upper and lower bounds of the produced mole fraction of methyl radicals in the plasma are obtained due to uncertainties in the collisional quenching rates of excited state methylidyne radicals in the plasma. The discharges produce a maximum of 600–1100 ppm of methyl radicals upstream of the flame front within 25 ns. This amount is similar to the predicted methyl mole fraction for the flame without plasma and thus represents a significant chemical perturbation to the reactants upstream of the flame front. The produced methyl follows an exponential decay in the first microsecond after the discharge with a decay constant of 8 µs close to the flame, and 0.8 µs further from the flame. The decay then deviates from the exponential curve and the methyl persists for tens of microseconds. The results suggest that for the tested configuration, the thermal effect of individual discharges through fast gas heating is negligible, while active chemical species are produced in large quantities in the reactant gases, upstream of the flame front.

hybrid fs-ps CARS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Kinetics of Hydrogen Generation from In-Situ Methane Pyrolysis: Enhanced by Electromagnetic Heating and Natural Catalysts of Reservoir Rocks

Catalytic pyrolysis of methane (CH4) is a promising approach to generate hydrogen (H2). The apparent activation energy of this process has a significant influence on the efficiency and required temperature for H2 generation. Preliminary experiments indicate that minerals present in shales have catalytic effects during in-situ H2 generation from shale reservoirs under electromagnetic (EM) heating. However, the quantitative role of such natural catalysts on apparent activation energy is not explored yet. This research evaluated the role of reservoir rock (shale) in EM heating and on the apparent activation energy of methane pyrolysis (MP) for in-situ H2 generation. Experiments are conducted in a customized EM reactor with frequency 2.45 GHz, and reaction temperature and generated gases are measured by a real-time IR pyrometer and gas analyzer, respectively. It is found that shale samples experienced thermal runway (TR) at 420 ºC under 0.15 kW EM power without any artificial heating promoter. In the presence of spent shale, CH4 conversion started approximately at 600 ºC with negligible amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) generated during this process. We further calculated apparent reaction order and apparent activation energy for MP process in the presence of shale under EM heating, which are 0.4357 and 98.12 kJ/mol, respectively. This research paves a way for leveraging the role of minerals as natural catalysts for enhancing H2 generation under EM heating in petroleum reservoirs.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microwave Absorbing Perovskite Catalysts for Efficient Electrification of Syngas Production from CO2 and Methane

Microwave absorbing catalysts have the potential to make thermal reactions such as methane reforming (CH4 + CO2 + H2O → H2 + CO) into carbon negative processes when coupled with decarbonized electricity. Due to microwaves directly heating the catalyst rather than heating the reactor and gases, even high temperature reactions such as dry reforming methane (DRM, CH4 + CO2 → H2 + CO) can be achieved rapidly, efficiently, and on-demand, ideal for coupling with intermittent renewable electricity. However, microwave catalysts present unique design challenges due to the same material needing to both efficiently absorb microwaves in oxidative and reductive reaction conditions and be an efficient and stable catalyst in inherently non-isothermal reactors. We screened from over 28 catalysts in the La0.8Sr0.2(Co-Ni-Mn)O3 perovskite solid-solution family to determine promising microwave reforming catalysts and identify design principles for effective materials. The best performing catalyst candidate was able to produce syngas ratios (H2:CO) from 1-3, and scale up testing showed CO and H2 production efficiencies rivaling conventional carbon intensive steam reforming efficiencies at the liters per minute level of production.

Marin, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2024

Roles of Metal Promoters (Co, Cu, K, Ni, Zn, and Cs) in Microwave-Assisted Methane Dehydroaromatization to Aromatics Over Mo-Supported HZSM-5

Microwave (MW)-assisted methane dehydroaromatization (MDHA) offers methane conversion to more value-added aromatics, thus generating revenue and mitigating the flaring emission. We previously found that Mo/HZSM-5, despite offering higher aromatic yield, experienced rapid deactivation under microwave irradiation. Adding metal promoters is one of the solutions to not only modulate the reaction/deactivation pathways, but potentially modify the heating properties of modified Mo/HZSM-5 under MW-assisted MDHA. In this study, Mo/HZSM-5 was modified with various metal promoters (Co, Cu, K, Ni, Zn, and Cs) and their catalytic performance was assessed and correlated with their physical and chemical properties upon adding metal promoters.

Mai, Duy Hien↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane Hydrates in Alaska

This paper was prepared for the National Petroleum Council's Study on Natural Gas GHG Emissions. Natural gas is the largest primary energy produced in the United States and its use is growing. Yet getting this gas to homes and businesses creates greenhouse gas emissions. That’s why reducing emissions from America’s natural gas is an urgent priority that requires collaborative solutions. The National Petroleum Council brought together a diverse group of stakeholders with the expertise to analyze this complex issue and identify ways to reduce natural gas GHG emissions for all future supply and demand scenarios. The result: actionable consensus on ensuring a lower-emission natural gas system. The study’s research charts a course forward to meaningfully reduce emissions from the natural gas system, contributing significantly to the United States’ ability to achieve its climate goals. The report concludes that through the implementation of existing policies, voluntary commitments, technologies, and market mechanisms, a 63% reduction in methane emissions can be achieved by 2030. The report went further to identify an additional pathway that methane emissions decrease by 70% and carbon dioxide emissions reduce by 33% through 2050.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Develop an efficient and cost-effective novel anaerobic digestion system producing high purity of methane from diverse waste biomass

This project focuses on developing an advanced, intensified anaerobic digestion system aimed at transforming the treatment and conversion of organic wastes into valuable products, specifically renewable natural gas. The motivation for this research stems from the limitations of conventional anaerobic digestion technologies, which often face challenges such as long retention times, high operational costs, and incomplete organic material degradation. The new technology called Intensified Versatile Anaerobic Digestion (IVAD), is developed to address these challenges by incorporating innovative reactors and processes that enhance the overall efficiency and output of anaerobic digestion. The significance of this project lies in its potential to revolutionize waste management practices and waste biomass utilization. The IVAD system integrates a hyperthermophilic anaerobic acidification reactor, a hydrothermal treatment (HTT) unit, and both thermophilic and mesophilic methanogenic reactors. This combination enables a higher rate of organic breakdown and energy recovery, resulting in faster processing times, reduced reactor sizes, and lower operational costs compared to traditional systems. Key data include an increase in methane productivity to 1.18 m 3 /m 3 /day, a significant improvement compared to the baseline technology’s 0.64 m 3 /m 3 /day. Additionally, the IVAD system achieves a 45% reduction in levelized cost of energy (LCOE), down to $\$$10.04/MMBTU, and an energy return on investment (EROI) of 3.19, representing an 87% increase over baseline levels. Technical and economic analyses highlight that the IVAD system significantly reduces hydraulic retention time (HRT) and solid retention time (SRT). The HRT for the HTT reactor can be reduced from 1 hour to 0.5 hours, while decoupling SRT from HRT in the anaerobic acidification reactor (AAR) allows for further reductions. These design optimizations lead to smaller reactor volumes, cutting down equipment and construction costs. Despite these advancements, energy consumption remains comparable to conventional methods due to a novel heat recovery strategy, enhancing overall process productivity. The system also achieves in-situ CO 2 removal and ammonia stripping features, resulting in biogas with a methane purity level of 75%, and produces high-quality nitrogen fertilizer as an additional by-product. Public benefits of the IVAD system are substantial, contributing to sustainable waste management and renewable energy production. By providing a scalable solution that can be adopted by dairy farms and similar agricultural operations, the IVAD system helps reduce waste, produce renewable natural gas (RNG) suitable for transportation fuel, and generate fertilizer, supporting a circular economy. This project plays a role in achieving broader environmental objectives by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and promoting energy independence. Additionally, it offers a pathway for farmers to lower operational costs while adopting practices that are both environmentally sustainable and economically advantageous.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Risks Associated with Short-Term Hydrogen Storage in Methane Reservoirs

Hydrogen (H2) has been identified as a flexible energy carrier with zero emissions. It is possible to utilize H2 by storing Hyblend, or H2 blended with CH4, in existing natural gas infrastructure. However, the compatibility of adapting the current CH4 storage strategies to include H2 injection has not been fully demonstrated. It is essential that we understand the impact of H2 gas on the naturally occurring microbial community of subsurface storage reservoirs before deploying large-scale H2-CH4 storage. We designed a series of experiments that allowed us to identify potential challenges of HyBlend Storage in existing methane reservoirs (Figure 1). First, we characterized two field fluid samples from a methane reservoir located in Western United States. Next, we used these samples to complete a series of short-term reactor experiments at reservoir conditions for a natural gas (100% CH4) and HyBlend (80% CH4/20% H2) storage environment.

geomicrobiology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Orphaned oil and gas well methane emission rates quantified using Gaussian plume inversions of ambient observations

Abstract. Annually, ∼ 3.6 million abandoned oil and gas wells in the US emit a combined ∼ 2.6 Tg methane (CH4), adversely affecting climate and regional air quality. However, these estimates depend on emission factors derived from measuring subpopulations of wells that vary by orders of magnitude due to very limited field sampling and poorly characterized distributions. Currently, US protocols to remediate orphaned wells lacks standardized quantification methods needed to both prioritize plugging and account for emission reductions. Therefore, sensitive, reliable, affordable, and scalable CH4 flux quantification methods are needed. We report the use of a simple Gaussian plume method where the dispersion parameters are constrained by in situ ground measurements of CH4 concentration at four locations 7.5–49 m downwind of the orphan well as well as local winds to estimate the leak rate from an orphan well. We derive a flux of 10.53 ± 1.16 kg CH4 h−1 during a venting procedure in April 2023 that agrees with the directly measured volumetric flow rate of 9.00 ± 0.25 kg CH4 h−1. This is 71 % greater than the 5.3 kg CH4 h−1 flux measured 7 months prior. Additionally, we discovered a secondary leak through the surface casing inferred as 0.43–0.67 kg CH4 h−1 both by our ground Gaussian analysis and by transecting the plume with an uncrewed aerial system (UAS). We show that in situ determination of the dispersion parameters used in our Gaussian inversions allows us to measure methane emissions to 15 % accuracy, significantly reducing errors when compared to the standard practice of assuming stability class. Our results help develop simpler methods and protocols for robust orphan well emission quantification that can be used for reporting.

Follansbee, Emily↗
DOE OSTI2025

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain

This study presents a new physical-biogeochemical modelling framework for simulating lake methane (CH 4 ) emissions at regional scales. The new model, FLaMe-v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane), rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach that enables the simulation of CH 4 emissions across a large number of lakes. Building on the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM) that simulates the lake physics, we develop a suite of biogeochemical modules to simulate transient dynamics of organic Carbon (C), Oxygen (O 2 ), and CH 4 . We first test the performance of FLaMe-v1.0 by analyzing physical and biogeochemical processes in two theoretical lakes with characteristics that can be considered representative for many lakes (an oligotrophic, deep lake driven by cold climate versus a eutrophic, shallow lake driven by warm climate). Next, we evaluate the model by comparing simulated and observed timeseries of CH 4 emissions in four well-surveyed lakes. We then apply FLaMe-v1.0 at the European scale to evaluate simulated diffusive and ebullitive lake CH 4 fluxes against in-situ measurements in both boreal and central European regions. Finally, we provide a first assessment of the spatio-temporal variability in CH 4 emissions from European lakes with a surface area comprised between 0.1–1000 km 2 (n= 108 407, total area = 1.33 × 105 km 2 ), indicating a total emission of 0.97 ± 0.23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , with the uncertainty constrained by combining FLaMe-v1.0 and machine learning techniques. Moreover, 30 % and 70 % of these CH 4 emissions are through diffusive and ebullitive pathways, respectively. Annually averaged CH 4 emission rates per unit lake area during 2010–2016 have a South-to-North decreasing gradient, resulting in a mean over the European domain as 7.39 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1 . Our simulations reveal a strong seasonality (with ice-blocking effects accounted for) in European lake CH 4 emissions, with nearly ten times higher emissions during late summer than during winter. This pronounced seasonal variation highlights the importance of accounting for the sub-annual variability in CH 4 emissions to accurately constrain regional CH 4 budgets. In the future, FLaMe-v1.0 could be embedded into Earth System Models to investigate the feedback between climate warming and global lake CH 4 emissions.

Maisonnier, Manon [Free Univ. of Brussels (Belgium↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗