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At least 145 records · Page 8

Cirrus Susceptibility to Changes in Ice Nuclei: Physical Processes, Model Uncertainties, and Measurement Needs

One of the proposed concepts for mitigating the warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases is seeding cirrus cloud with ice nuclei (IN) in order to reduce the lifetime and coverage of cold cirrus that have a net warming impact on the earth's surface. Global model simulations of the net impact of changing upper tropospheric IN have given widely disparate results, partly as a result of poor understanding of ice nucleation processes in the current atmosphere, and partly as a result of poor representation of these processes in global models. Here, we present detailed process-model simulations of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) transport and cirrus formation with ice nuclei properties based on recent laboratory nucleation experiments and field measurements of aerosol composition. The model is used to assess the sensitivity of TTL cirrus occurrence frequency and microphysical properties to the abundance and efficacy of ice nuclei. The simulated cloud properties compared with recent high-altitude aircraft measurements of TTL cirrus and ice supersaturation. We find that abundant effective IN (either from glassy organic aerosols or crystalline ammonium sulfate with concentrations greater than about 100/L) prevent the occurrences of large ice concentration and large ice supersaturations, both of which are clearly indicated by the in situ observations. We find that concentrations of effective ice nuclei larger than about 50/L can drive significant changes in cirrus microphysical properties and occurrence frequency. However, the cloud occurrence frequency can either increase or decrease, depending on the efficacy and abundance of IN added to the TTL. We suggest that our lack of information about ice nuclei properties in the current atmosphere, as well as uncertainties in ice nucleation processes and their representations in global models, preclude meaningful estimates of climate impacts associated with addition of ice nuclei in the upper troposphere. We will briefly discuss the key field measurements needed to constrain ice nucleation processes.

Jensen, Eric↗

The miniJPAS survey quasar selection – II. Machine learning classification with photometric measurements and uncertainties

Astrophysical surveys rely heavily on the classification of sources as stars, galaxies, or quasars from multiband photometry. Surveys in narrow-band filters allow for greater discriminatory power, but the variety of different types and redshifts of the objects present a challenge to standard template-based methods. In this work, which is part of a larger effort that aims at building a catalogue of quasars from the miniJPAS survey, we present a machine learning-based method that employs convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to classify point-like sources including the information in the measurement errors. We validate our methods using data from the miniJPAS survey, a proof-of-concept project of the Javalambre Physics of the Accelerating Universe Astrophysical Survey (J-PAS) collaboration covering ∼1 deg 2 of the northern sky using the 56 narrow-band filters of the J-PAS survey. Due to the scarcity of real data, we trained our algorithms using mocks that were purpose-built to reproduce the distributions of different types of objects that we expect to find in the miniJPAS survey, as well as the properties of the real observations in terms of signal and noise. We compare the performance of the CNNs with other well-established machine learning classification methods based on decision trees, finding that the CNNs improve the classification when the measurement errors are provided as inputs. The predicted distribution of objects in miniJPAS is consistent with the putative luminosity functions of stars, quasars, and unresolved galaxies. Our results are a proof of concept for the idea that the J-PAS survey will be able to detect unprecedented numbers of quasars with high confidence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Doppler Global Velocimeter Development for the Large Wind Tunnels at Ames Research Center

Development of an optical, laser-based flow-field measurement technique for large wind tunnels is described. The technique uses laser sheet illumination and charged coupled device detectors to rapidly measure flow-field velocity distributions over large planar regions of the flow. Sample measurements are presented that illustrate the capability of the technique. An analysis of measurement uncertainty, which focuses on the random component of uncertainty, shows that precision uncertainty is not dependent on the measured velocity magnitude. For a single-image measurement, the analysis predicts a precision uncertainty of +/-5 m/s. When multiple images are averaged, this uncertainty is shown to decrease. For an average of 100 images, for example, the analysis shows that a precision uncertainty of +/-0.5 m/s can be expected. Sample applications show that vectors aligned with an orthogonal coordinate system are difficult to measure directly. An algebraic transformation is presented which converts measured vectors to the desired orthogonal components. Uncertainty propagation is then used to show how the uncertainty propagates from the direct measurements to the orthogonal components. For a typical forward-scatter viewing geometry, the propagation analysis predicts precision uncertainties of +/-4, +/-7, and +/-6 m/s, respectively, for the U, V, and W components at 68% confidence.

Reinath, Michael S.↗

Computation of output feedback gains for linear stochastic systems using the Zangnill-Powell Method

Because conventional optimal linear regulator theory results in a controller which requires the capability of measuring and/or estimating the entire state vector, it is of interest to consider procedures for computing controls which are restricted to be linear feedback functions of a lower dimensional output vector and which take into account the presence of measurement noise and process uncertainty. To this effect a stochastic linear model has been developed that accounts for process parameter and initial uncertainty, measurement noise, and a restricted number of measurable outputs. Optimization with respect to the corresponding output feedback gains was then performed for both finite and infinite time performance indices without gradient computation by using Zangwill's modification of a procedure originally proposed by Powell. Results using a seventh order process show the proposed procedures to be very effective.

Kaufman, H.↗

Reduced state feedback gain computation

Because application of conventional optimal linear regulator theory to flight controller design requires the capability of measuring and/or estimating the entire state vector, it is of interest to consider procedures for computing controls which are restricted to be linear feedback functions of a lower dimensional output vector and which take into account the presence of measurement noise and process uncertainty. Therefore, a stochastic linear model that was developed is presented which accounts for aircraft parameter and initial uncertainty, measurement noise, turbulence, pilot command and a restricted number of measurable outputs. Optimization with respect to the corresponding output feedback gains was performed for both finite and infinite time performance indices without gradient computation by using Zangwill's modification of a procedure originally proposed by Powell. Results using a seventh order process show the proposed procedures to be very effective.

Kaufman, H.↗

Computation of output feedback gains for linear stochastic systems using the Zangwill-Powell method

Because conventional optimal linear regulator theory results in a controller which requires the capability of measuring and/or estimating the entire state vector, it is of interest to consider procedures for computing controls which are restricted to be linear feedback functions of a lower dimensional output vector and which take into account the presence of measurement noise and process uncertainty. To this effect a stochastic linear model has been developed that accounts for process parameter and initial uncertainty, measurement noise, and a restricted number of measurable outputs. Optimization with respect to the corresponding output feedback gains was then performed for both finite and infinite time performance indices without gradient computation by using Zangwill's modification of a procedure originally proposed by Powell.

Kaufman, H.↗

Analysis of the dedicated laser velocimeter systems at NASA - Langley Research Center

Three representative laser velocimeter systems used at NASA - Langley Research Center are described and analyzed. They range from a small orthogonal three component system used for detailed aerodynamic investigations to a large two component system used for investigations of complicated helicopter rotor flow fields. The components used in each system are described and analyzed for their contributions to the measurement uncertainty. Example flow field measurements are presented to illustrate the capabilities of these systems.

Meyers, James F.↗

Ground-based infrared measurements of HNO3 total column abundances - Long-term trend and variability

The long-term trend and variability of the total column amount of atmospheric nitric acid (HNO3) have been investigated. The study was based on time series of infrared solar absorption spectra recorded at two sites, the International Scientific Station of the Jungfraujoch (ISSJ) in the Swiss Alps (altitude 3.6 km, latitude 46.5 N, longitude 8.0 E) and the National Solar Observatory McMath solar telescope facility on Kitt Peak (altitude 2.1 km, latitude 31.9 N, longitude 111.6 W), Arizona. Measurements of HNO3 absorption features recorded at Kitt Peak between 1980 and 1990 and measurements of the same features in ISSJ solar spectra obtained in June 1951 and June 1986 to June 1990 provide quantitative estimates of the long-term trend in the HNO3 total vertical column. It is found that the trend deduced for each site is equal to zero within the measurement uncertainty. The modern ISSJ measurements show that the fitted trend is (-0.16 + or - 0.50) percent/yr, 2 sigma, which indicates that there has been no detectable change in HNO3 total column over three decades. The Kitt Peak measurements show marked variability in the HNO3 total column, but no obvious seasonal cycle is observed.

Rinsland, C. P.↗

The First X-Ray Proper-Motion Measurements of the Forward Shock in the Northeastern Limb of Sn 1006

We report on the first X-ray proper-motion measurements of the nonthermally-dominated forward shock in the northeastern limb of SN 1006, based on two Chandra observations taken in 2000 and 2008. We find that the proper motion of the forward shock is about 0.48"/yr and does not vary around the rim within the approx.10% measurement uncertainties. The proper motion measured is consistent with that determined by the previous radio observations. The mean expansion index of the forward shock is calculated to be approx..0.54 which matches the value expected based on an evolutionary model of a Type Ia supernova with either a power-law or an exponential ejecta density profile. Assuming pressure equilibrium around the periphery from the thermally-dominated northwestern rim to the nonthermally-dominated northeastern rim, we estimate the ambient density to the northeast of SN 1006 to be approx..0.085/cu cm.

Katsuda, Satoru↗

Dose Error Correction Using Simulation Extrapolation for Community Noise Dose-Response Modeling

The objective of this work is to provide a framework to account and correct for dose error in dose-response modeling due to measurement uncertainty. Error in noise measurements, especially in the case of limited monitoring locations in a community, can lead to an attenuation or misestimation of parameters in dose-response models. This error can result in overpredicted annoyance at lower doses and underpredicted annoyance at higher doses. Simulated data in the present work are based on previous NASA community studies and incorporate a notional design for future studies with the X-59 aircraft. Several populations of different annoyance response sensitivities are included. Simulation extrapolation (SIMEX, Cook and Stefanski 1994) is used to correct for the dose error in a simple, fully pooled logistic regression. Results indicate the negative impact of attenuation is greatly diminished for all amounts of dose error considered, regardless of a population’s annoyance sensitivity. Therefore, SIMEX can help produce a more accurate dose-response relationship.

SIMEX↗

Modernization of the Radiation Measurements Laboratory at the Advanced Test Reactor Complex

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is a unique, water-cooled, high-flux test reactor capable of performing tests prototypical of PWR operating conditions. The Radiation Measurements Laboratory (RML) was founded in the 1960s to support reactor operations and to conduct independent scientific research. For nearly six decades RML has performed four primary functions: monitoring of radioactivity by gamma-ray spectroscopy of routine reactor samples, fluence rate determinations for irradiation cycles, fission-rate measurements for the ATR-Critical (ATR-C) Facility, and independent research and development of radiation detection systems and applications. Through the decades, RML has seen technological advancements that have been integrated into each of the critical functions of the laboratory. However, many of the measurement and analysis systems employed to this day can be improved by modernization. Recent progress at RML is improving reliability and accuracy of the radiation measurements performed in support of nuclear energy research for the U.S.A. Department of Energy. The control and data collection systems supporting ATR-C have been upgraded. New High-Purity Germanium (HPGe) spectrometers have been procured with liquid nitrogen recycling capabilities to improve up-time and reduce measurement uncertainties. Fluence-rate measurement techniques are also being improved to ensure accuracy, avoid systemic errors, and identify biases. In a parallel effort, new scientific research avenues are being explored which will provide an opportunity to further enhance the utilization of ATR and ensure the sustainability of the RML as nuclear research continues to evolve. The RML is improving the effectiveness of irradiation services provided by ATR while ensuring a sustainable future for nuclear energy research.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Comprehensive Open-Source R Software For Statistical Metrology Calculations: From Uncertainty Evaluation To Risk Analysis

Whether calibrating equipment or inspecting products on the factory floor, metrology requires many complicated statistical calculations to achieve a full understanding and evaluation of measurement uncertainty and quality. In order to assist its workforce in performing these calculations in a consistent and rigorous way, the Primary Standards Lab at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has developed a free and open-source software package for computing various metrology calculations from uncertainty propagation to risk analysis. In addition to propagating uncertainty through a measurement model using the well-known Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement or Monte Carlo approaches, evaluating the individual Type A and Type B uncertainty components that go into the measurement model often requires other statistical methods such as analysis of variance or determining uncertainty in a fitted curve. Once the uncertainty in a measurement has been calculated, it is usually evaluated from a risk perspective to ensure the measurement is suitable for making a particular conformance decision. Finally, SNL’s software can perform all these calculations in a single application via an easy-to-use graphical interface, where the different functions are integrated so the results of one calculation can be used as inputs to another calculation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accuracy of Pressure Sensitive Paint

Uncertainty in pressure sensitive paint (PSP) measurement is investigated from a standpoint of system modeling. A functional relation between the imaging system output and luminescent emission from PSP is obtained based on studies of radiative energy transports in PSP and photodetector response to luminescence. This relation provides insights into physical origins of various elemental error sources and allows estimate of the total PSP measurement uncertainty contributed by the elemental errors. The elemental errors and their sensitivity coefficients in the error propagation equation are evaluated. Useful formulas are given for the minimum pressure uncertainty that PSP can possibly achieve and the upper bounds of the elemental errors to meet required pressure accuracy. An instructive example of a Joukowsky airfoil in subsonic flows is given to illustrate uncertainty estimates in PSP measurements.

Liu, Tianshu↗