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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Quantum-Assisted Algorithm for Sampling Applications in Machine Learning

An increase in the efficiency of sampling from Boltzmann distributions would have a significant impact in deep learning and other machine learning applications. Recently, quantum annealers have been proposed as a potential candidate to speed up this task, but several limitations still bar these state-of-the-art technologies from being used effectively. One of the main limitations is that, while the device may indeed sample from a Boltzmann-like distribution, quantum dynamical arguments suggests it will do so with an instance-dependent effective temperature, different from the physical temperature of the device. Unless this unknown temperature can be unveiled, it might not be possible to effectively use a quantum annealer for Boltzmann sampling. In this talk, we present a strategy to overcome this challenge with a simple effective-temperature estimation algorithm. We provide a systematic study assessing the impact of the effective temperatures in the learning of a kind of restricted Boltzmann machine embedded on quantum hardware, which can serve as a building block for deep learning architectures. We also provide a comparison to k-step contrastive divergence (CD-k) with k up to 100. Although assuming a suitable fixed effective temperature also allows to outperform one step contrastive divergence (CD-1), only when using an instance-dependent effective temperature we find a performance close to that of CD-100 for the case studied here. We discuss generalizations of the algorithm to other more expressive generative models, beyond restricted Boltzmann machines.

Perdomo-Ortiz, Alejandro↗
NASA NTRS2002

Autonomous operations through onboard artificial intelligence

The Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) will fly onboard the Air Force TechSat 21 constellation of three spacecraft scheduled for launch in 2006. ASE uses onboard continuous planning, robust task and goal-based execution, model-based mode identification and reconfiguration, and onboard machine learning and pattern recognition to radically increase science return by enabling intelligent downlink selection and autonomous retargeting. Demonstration of these capabilities in a flight environment will open up tremendous new opportunities in planetary science, space physics, and earth science that would be unreachable without this technology.

Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment ASE TechSat 21↗
NASA NTRS2002

Spacecraft autonomy using onboard processing for a SAR constellation mission

The Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) will fly onboard the Air Force TechSat 21 constellation of three spacecraft scheduled for launch in 2006. ASE uses onboard continuous planning, robust task and goal-based execution, model-based mode identification and reconfiguration, and onboard machine learning and pattem recognition to radically increase science retum by enabling intelligent downlink selection and autonomous retargeting. Demonstration of these capabilities in a flight environment will open up tremendous new opportunities in planetary science, space physics, and earth science that would be unreachable without this technology.

Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment ASE spacecraft ↗
NASA NTRS2020

Barefoot Rover: a Sensor-Infused Rover Wheel Demonstrating In-Situ Engineering and Science Extractions using Machine Learning

In this work, we demonstrate an instrumented wheel concept which utilizes a 2D pressure grid, an electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) sensor and machine learning (ML) to extract meaningful metrics from the interaction between the wheel and surface terrain. These include continuous slip/skid estimation, balance, and sharpness for engineering applications. Estimates of surface hydration, texture, terrain patterns, and regolith physical properties such as cohesion and angle of internal friction are additionally calculated for science applications. Traditional systems rely on post-processing of visual images and vehicle telemetry to estimate these metrics. Through in-situ sensing, these metrics can be calculated in near real time and made available to onboard science and engineering autonomy applications. This work aims to provide a deployable system for future planetary exploration missions to increase science and engineering capabilities through increased knowledge of the terrain.

Marchetti, Yuliya↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pushing the Limits of Aquatic Remote Sensing: Synthetic Data and Deep Learning for Fast Inverse Emulation of A Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Transfer Model

The inversion of electromagnetic information to physical and biological properties of the water column is a notoriously difficult problem, yet fundamental to our ability of understanding aquatic processes on large time and space scales. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will discuss research integrating advanced biological and radiative modeling, high-end computation, and machine learning to develop a portable global processor for simultaneous retrieval of atmosphere and water optics for diverse aquatic systems from the open and coastal ocean to optically extreme inland waters and harmful algal blooms. We will discuss some of the basic concepts behind the forward modeling approach including DEAP, the novel Distributed Equivalent Algal Populations model, for developing large spectral libraries of aquatic particle optics to aid in our ability to distinguish phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) and inorganic material, as well as other factors which enable comprehensive modeling from the benthos to top-of-atmosphere (TOA). This information is being used to understand how we can leverage next-generation deep learning methods for maximum information retrieval and rapid image processing, while also providing capabilities to identify minimum sensor spectral requirements necessary for certain aquatic applications. Further, I will touch on how we envision this research to enable the aquatic community for science discovery and how we are moving closer towards the capability for high-fidelity global analysis of aquatic ecosystems.

Jeremy Alan Kravitz↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

New Tools for Automating Arcjet Sample Recession Tracking and Analysis

Arcjet Computer Vision (arcjetCV) has been significantly upgraded to enhance accuracy and performance in tracking material recession and shock-material standoff in test videos. These improvements include integrating new machine learning models, developing a specialized edge detection class, and incorporating a more comprehensive training dataset. These upgrades have refined the software’s ability to automate time-resolved recession tracking, making it more precise and reliable for analyzing complex physical processes. In parallel, a new tool called STARscan (Spatial Targeting and Alignment Rig for Scanning) is being developed to capture detailed 3D surface data before and after testing. By comparing these pre- and post-test scans with arcjetCV’s automated video analysis results, users can achieve a more comprehensive assessment of material recession. This method enables cross-validation of results, improving confidence in the analysis of tested materials. The expanded capabilities of arcjetCV have been successfully demonstrated on videos from various facilities, including the NASA Ames arcjets, UIUC’s PlasmatronX, and the VKI Plasmatron. It has been adopted as a new standard for in-situ recession tracking by the Mars Sample Return Project and Orion. ArcjetCV’s improved efficiency and accuracy are critical for reducing testing uncertainties and validating heatshield material performance under extreme conditions. The software’s user-friendly graphical interface ensures ease of use, enabling seamless processing and precise analysis of arcjet videos, providing deeper insights into material behavior in hypersonic environments. ArcjetCV is now available on both PyPI and Conda, allowing easy installation via "pip install arcjetCV" or through the Conda package manager, ensuring broad accessibility and streamlined deployment for users across various platforms.

Ablation↗
NASA NTRS2018

Serious Gaming for Building a Basis of Certification via Trust and Trustworthiness of Autonomous Systems

Autonomous systems governed by a variety of adaptive and nondeterministic algorithms are being planned for inclusion into safety-critical environments, such as unmanned aircraft and space systems in both civilian and military applications. However, until autonomous systems are proven and perceived to be capable and resilient in the face of unanticipated conditions, humans will be reluctant or unable to delegate authority, remaining in control aided by machine-based information and decision support. Proving capability, or trustworthiness, is a necessary component of certification. Perceived capability is a component of trust. Trustworthiness is an attribute of a cyber-physical system that requires context-driven metrics to prove and certify. Trust is an attribute of the agents participating in the system and is gained over time and multiple interactions through trustworthy behavior and transparency. Historically, artificial intelligence and machine learning systems provide answers without explanation - without a rationale or insight into the machine “thinking”. In order to function as trusted teammates, machines must be able to explain their decisions and actions. This transparency is a product of both content and communication. NASA’s Autonomy Teaming & TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) project seeks to build a basis for certification of autonomous systems via establishing metrics for trustworthiness and trust in multi-agent team interactions, using AI (Artificial Intelligence) explainability and persistent modeling and simulation, in the context of mission planning and execution, with analyzable trajectories. Inspired by Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPG) and Serious Gaming, the proposed ATTRACTOR modeling and simulation environment is similar to online gaming environments in which player (aka agent) participants interact with each other, affect their environment, and expect the simulation to persist and change regardless of any individual agent’s active participation. This persistent simulation environment will accommodate individual agents, groups of self-organizing agents, and large-scale infrastructure behavior. The effects of the emerging adaptation and coevolution can be observed and measured to building a basis of measurable trustworthiness and trust, toward certification of safety-critical autonomous systems.

Allen, B. Danette↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Benchmark Models for Classification of Radiation Type Induced in Immune Cells

NASA Biological and Physical Sciences and the Science Mission Directorate have published a benchmark dataset of mouse immune cells subjected to radiation-induced DNA damage. The dataset comprises ML-ready microscopic imagery of said cells, including labels indicating radiation type and dose. The machine learning team at NASA Interagency Implementation and Advanced Concept Team (IMPACT) created multiple benchmark models. Initially, we conducted a preliminary analysis using thresholding. The algorithm used thresholds on average brightness of the available images to classify them into their respective radiation type. We also tested machine learning approaches. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) emerged as the best-performing model. This poster presents the benchmark scores obtained by the models.

Vishal Perekadan↗
NASA NTRS2014

Vision Based Autonomous Robotic Control for Advanced Inspection and Repair

The advanced inspection system is an autonomous control and analysis system that improves the inspection and remediation operations for ground and surface systems. It uses optical imaging technology with intelligent computer vision algorithms to analyze physical features of the real-world environment to make decisions and learn from experience. The advanced inspection system plans to control a robotic manipulator arm, an unmanned ground vehicle and cameras remotely, automatically and autonomously. There are many computer vision, image processing and machine learning techniques available as open source for using vision as a sensory feedback in decision-making and autonomous robotic movement. My responsibilities for the advanced inspection system are to create a software architecture that integrates and provides a framework for all the different subsystem components; identify open-source algorithms and techniques; and integrate robot hardware.

sensory feedback↗
NASA NTRS2022

A New Machine Learning Based Analysis for Improving Satellite Retrieved Atmospheric Composition Data: OMI SO2 as an Example

Despite recent progress, satellite retrievals of anthropogenic SO2 still suffer from relatively low signal-tonoise ratios. In this study, we demonstrate a new machine learning data analysis method to improve the quality of satellite SO2 products. In the absence of large ground-truth datasets for SO2, we start from SO2 slant column densities (SCDs) retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using a data-driven, physically based algorithm and calculate the ratio between the SCD and the root mean square (rms) of the fitting residuals for each pixel. To build the training data, we select presumably clean pixels with small SCD / rms ratios (SRRs) and set their target SCDs to zero. For polluted pixels with relatively large SRRs, we set the target to the original retrieved SCDs. We then train neural networks (NNs) to reproduce the target SCDs using predictors including SRRs for individual pixels, solar zenith, viewing zenith and phase angles, scene reflectivity, and O3 column amounts, as well as the monthly mean SRRs. For data analysis, we employ two NNs: (1) one trained daily to produce analyzed SO2 SCDs for polluted pixels each day and (2) the other trained once every month to produce analyzed SCDs for less polluted pixels for the entire month. Test results for 2005 show that our method can significantly reduce noise and artifacts over background regions. Over polluted areas, the monthly mean NN-analyzed and original SCDs generally agree to within ±15 %, indicating that our method can retain SO2 signals in the original retrievals except for large volcanic eruptions. This is further confirmed by running both the NN-analyzed and original SCDs through a topdown emission algorithm to estimate the annual SO2 emissions for ∼ 500 anthropogenic sources, with the two datasets yielding similar results. We also explore two alternative approaches to the NN-based analysis method. In one, we employ a simple linear interpolation model to analyze the original SCD retrievals. In the other, we develop a PCA–NN algorithm that uses OMI measured radiances, transformed and dimension-reduced with a principal component analysis (PCA) technique, as inputs to NNs for SO2 SCD retrievals. While the linear model and the PCA–NN algorithm can reduce retrieval noise, they both underestimate SO2 over polluted areas. Overall, the results presented here demonstrate that our new data analysis method can significantly improve the quality of existing OMI SO2 retrievals. The method can potentially be adapted for other sensors and/or species and enhance the value of satellite data in air quality research and applications.

Can Li↗
NASA NTRS2022

Design of Materials with Alchemite

Machine learning models that establish the relationships between materials processing and properties can enable inverse design of materials through active learning. Alchemite is a commercial software that can perform inverse materials design on sparse data. Here we evaluate Alchemite’s performance on a dataset of shape memory alloys and a dataset of heat exchangers compared to baseline random forest models. Alchemite had higher accuracy when making predictions on sparse data and was more accurate or nearly as accurate as random forests on complete datasets while also quantifying uncertainty. The software was also used to suggest processing steps and design parameters to optimize properties and performance; however, physical validation of the suggested design parameters was beyond the scope of this work. Several useful design insights were gained about the impact of the design parameters on properties and performance including the importance of dopant choice and amount for shape memory alloys and the importance of height and weight on the thermal resistance of heat exchangers.

Machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2020

Observations on the Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues are illustrated by a detailed example and summary of current research in the area. The application of MLT to aviation operations falls into two categories: (a) based on the lack of a physics-based model, MLT is the favored approach and (b) marginal difference between regression methods using physics-based models and MLT. Further research is needed in the selection of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2020

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations: A Case Study

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues are illustrated by a detailed example and summary of current research in the area. The application of MLT to aviation operations falls into two categories 58; (a) based on the lack of a physics-based model, MLT is the favored approach and (b) marginal difference between regression methods using physics-based models and MLT. Further research is needed in the selection of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2020

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations: NASA Case Studies

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques(MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues relating to data, feature selection and validation of the models are illustrated by examining case studies of the application of MLT to problems in air traffic management at NASA. Further research is needed in the application of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2019

Accelerated Simulation of Air Pollution Using NVIDIA RAPIDS

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study and forecast the impact of air pollution on the environment, vegetation, and human health. However, the numerical simulation of chemical kinetics is computationally expensive due to the stiffness of the system of ordinary differential equations that describes atmospheric chemistry. Here we present an alternative approach to the computation of atmospheric chemistry based on machine learning. Our training data set is produced using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model with GEOS-Chem chemistry, run on the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) Discover supercomputing cluster on 384 Intel Xeon Haswell cores. This model spends more than 50% of total run time on solving atmospheric chemistry. The data set contains as input features the air pollution concentrations before solving the differential equations, together with some key physical parameters such as temperature and sun intensity. As target variables we define the air pollution concentrations after solving the differential equations. Using Dask-cuDF and Dask-XGBoost on the NVIDIA RAPIDS platform on 8 Tesla V100 GPUs, we generate from this training set gradient boosted decision tree models that can reproduce the simulation of chemical kinetics. We do this on the NCCS Advanced Data Analytics Platform (ADAPT) science cloud environment. Our application takes full advantage of recent advances in Dask-XGBoost, such as multi-node and multi-GPU scaling for distributed training with large data sets. The increase in training data size enabled by this is critical to capture the full range of chemical environments encountered across the globe and all annual seasons.The boosted tree models offer good predictability and show many of the features of the full chemistry reference simulation. Further improvements can be achieved through mass balance considerations and by accounting for error correlations. We incorporate the boosted tree models into the GEOS reference model using XGBoost's C API. This enables a seamless integration of the GPU trained models into GEOS-Chem, which is written in Fortran and optimized for use in a massively parallel CPU environment. We show the benefits of this approach and discuss the potential speedup of this machine learning accelerated atmospheric chemistry model.

Keller, Christoph A.↗