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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Review and Analysis of Algorithmic Approaches Developed for Prognostics on CMAPSS Dataset

Benchmarking of prognostic algorithms has been challenging due to limited availability of common datasets suitable for prognostics. In an attempt to alleviate this problem several benchmarking datasets have been collected by NASA's prognostic center of excellence and made available to the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) community to allow evaluation and comparison of prognostics algorithms. Among those datasets are five C-MAPSS datasets that have been extremely popular due to their unique characteristics making them suitable for prognostics. The C-MAPSS datasets pose several challenges that have been tackled by different methods in the PHM literature. In particular, management of high variability due to sensor noise, effects of operating conditions, and presence of multiple simultaneous fault modes are some factors that have great impact on the generalization capabilities of prognostics algorithms. More than 70 publications have used the C-MAPSS datasets for developing data-driven prognostic algorithms. The C-MAPSS datasets are also shown to be well-suited for development of new machine learning and pattern recognition tools for several key preprocessing steps such as feature extraction and selection, failure mode assessment, operating conditions assessment, health status estimation, uncertainty management, and prognostics performance evaluation. This paper summarizes a comprehensive literature review of publications using C-MAPSS datasets and provides guidelines and references to further usage of these datasets in a manner that allows clear and consistent comparison between different approaches.

Uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feature-Based PMU Event Classification under Variable PMU Participation and Overlapping Events

Danovo Energy Solution's presented its paper named: Feature-Based PMU Event Classification under Variable PMU Participation and Overlapping Events at the 2026 Georgia Tech Fault & Disturbance Analysis Conference. The full paper can be found at OSTI ID# 3169150 Paper Abstract—Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) stream time synchronized, high-resolution measurements from the grid, enabling data-driven techniques for event detection and classification. Accurate event classification improves grid reliability and stability. Events can be detected by varying numbers of PMUs and exhibit different durations depending on the event type. This variability challenges standard classifiers that require uniform input sizes. Moreover, multiple events may coincide, which increases classification complexity. Standard classifiers assign each instance to the class with the highest predicted probability, whereas overlapping events may exhibit comparable probabilities across multiple classes. In this study, to handle data size variability, we extract a wide range of time–frequency domain features from all available PMUs for each event into a fixed-length vector, facilitating the application of standard machine learning classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, Support Vector Machine, and Multilayer Perceptron. To account for overlapping events, a probabilistic post-processing step is applied. For a given data instance, if multiple predicted class probabilities exceed 30% and the differences between them are less than 10%, the event is assigned to multiple classes. Experiments using real-world PMU data demonstrate that the Random Forest and XGBoost models achieve the highest accuracy, while the proposed post-processing method yields perfect classification performance on external unseen test sets.

Nematirad, Reza [Danova Energy Solutions]↗
NASA NTRS2015

Pendulum Motion in Main Parachute Clusters

The coupled dynamics of a cluster of parachutes to a payload are notoriously difficult to predict. Often the payload is designed to be insensitive to the range of attitude and rates that might occur, but spacecraft generally do not have the mass and volume budgeted for this robust of a design. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orion Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) implements a cluster of three mains for landing. During testing of the Engineering Development Unit (EDU) design, it was discovered that with a cluster of two mains (a fault tolerance required for human rating) the capsule coupled to the parachute cluster could get into a limit cycle pendulum motion which would exceed the spacecraft landing capability. This pendulum phenomenon could not be predicted with the existing models and simulations. A three phased effort has been undertaken to understand the consequence of the pendulum motion observed, and explore potential design changes that would mitigate this phenomenon. This paper will review the early analysis that was performed of the pendulum motion observed during EDU testing, summarize the analysis ongoing to understand the root cause of the pendulum phenomenon, and discuss the modeling and testing that is being pursued to identify design changes that would mitigate the risk.

Ray, Eric S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Approaches to Predicting Induced Seismicity and Imaging Geothermal Reservoir Properties

This project developed machine learning (ML) methods, lab data sets, and field data to advance geothermal exploration and geothermal energy production. The work had three focus areas. One involved the development of ML methods to use microearthquakes (MEQs) for imaging geothermal reservoir properties and improving subsurface characterization – most importantly the evolution of permeability within the evolving reservoir. This part of the work included development of ML approaches for automated MEQ location, focal mechanism determination and identification of earthquake precursors. The second area focused on using MEQ signals generated by geothermal exploration and production to predict the relationship between fluid injection and seismicity. Here, we extended to reservoir scale our success in using ML to predict laboratory earthquakes and fault zone stress state. The third focus area was on lab experiments. Here, we developed new ML models for lab earthquake prediction and identification of precursors to failure to improve earthquake forecasting and early warning in geothermal settings. Major outcomes of our work include ML models that learn from MEQ signals during geothermal exploration and production to predict induced seismicity. MEQs occur naturally in connection with drilling and energy production. We developed ML methods to use the seismic waves from these events to characterize the elastic, hydraulic and poromechanical properties of reservoirs. Our work illuminated fracture geometry and the evolution of fracture permeability by incorporating seismic coda wave analysis and ML methods to relate fluid injection and seismicity. We significantly expanded laboratory earthquake prediction to include methods that use both passive measurements of microearthquakes within the lab fault zones and also active source acoustic measurements of fault zone elastic properties. These methods can now predict fault zone stress state, time to failure and the magnitude of lab earthquakes. Our work showed that repetitive stick- slip failure events during frictional sliding (the lab equivalent of earthquakes) are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate energy in a manner that foretells unstable failure – manifest as laboratory MEQs. We documented a mapping between fracture properties and statistical attributes of elastic radiation. We extended existing works to geothermal reservoir scale and developed ML methods to determine reservoir permeability, fracture properties, and their evolution during geothermal energy production. An attractive feature of ML algorithms is their ability to handle big datasets and reveal patterns and correlations that may remain invisible to conventional analyses. Our work connected data from field, laboratory and intermediate scales to study permeability, stress, strength, fracture stiffness and geometry. At the field scale we used data from the Newberry Volcano field site, UtahFORGE, EGS Collab, and also the Bedretto underground research lab in Switzerland. These data sets are bridging the gap between the lab scale, theory, and reservoir scale. Our work produced plain language summaries to improve public understanding of DOE research. We also developed openly distributed ML and seismicity datasets for use by all researchers and we published connections between induced seismicity in geothermal areas and reservoir properties including permeability, fracture properties, and stress state. Our models are designed for the large data sets of induced seismicity typically associated with geothermal sites. We produced labeled event catalogs and used them on geothermal data to assess how ML can facilitate geothermal production and exploration. All datasets are available on the GDR Productivity: The project produced 32 publications in peer reviewed journals (two are in review). It supported the work of 6 PhD students, 40 conference presentations, 6 keynote talks at national meetings, and mentoring and professional development for 4 postdoctoral fellows.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Deep Learning Models for System Remaining Useful Life Predictions: Application to Aircraft Engines

Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an important part of ensuring reliable operations of complex safety- critical systems. System-level remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a much more complex problem than making estimations at the component level, and system-level RUL methodologies remain sparse in the literature. Model-based approaches have traditionally worked in the past for components such as capacitors, MOSFETs, batteries, or hard-drives (to name a few examples), but developing high fidelity dynamics models of cyber physical systems that can be used to study the effects of multiple degrading components in the system remains a challenging task. Some initial work on model-based System RUL predictions was demonstrated in Khorasgani, et al [1], but, to generalize the system-level prognostics problem, we have to resort to pure data driven and hybrid approaches. In this work, we propose an end-to-end data- driven framework for developing deep learning models to predict remaining useful life of cyber physical systems operating under unknown faulty conditions. The raw data is organized with a data schema that improves the model development process and down stream data analysis tasks. Due to the unknown faulty conditions, the raw sensor data is transformed into signals that expose the underlying degradation processes, which are then used for model development. Bayesian Optimization is used to tune the model parameters prior to training and validation. We show that this approach results in accurate predictions within 3 cycles to end of life (EOL). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the N-CMAPSS turbofan engine dataset recently released by NASA, which includes high fidelity degradation modeling, real world operating conditions, and a large set of fault operating modes.

Prognostics↗
NASA NTRS1973

Iron absorption band analysis for the discrimination of iron rich zones

The author has identified the following significant results. A lineament study of the Nevada test site is near completion. Two base maps (1:500,000) have been prepared, one of band 7 lineaments and the other of band 5 lineaments. In general, more lineaments and more faults are seen on band 5. About 45% of the lineaments appear to be faults and contacts, the others being predominantly streams, roads, railway tracks, and mountain crests. About 25% of the lineaments are unidentified so far. Special attention is being given to unmapped extensions of faults, groups of unmapped lineaments, and known mineralized areas and alteration zones. Earthquake epicenters recorded from 1869 to 1963 have been plotted on the two base maps. Preliminary examination as yet indicates no basic correlation with the lineaments. Attempts are being made to subtract bands optically, using an I2S viewer, an enlarger, and a data color viewer. Success has been limited so far due to technical difficulties, mainly vignetting and poor light sources, within the machines. Some vegetation and rock type differences, however, have been discerned.

Rowan, L. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atomistic Mechanism Underlying the Si ( 111 ) - ( 7 × 7 ) Surface Reconstruction Revealed by Artificial Neural-Network Potential

The 7×7 reconstruction of the Si(111) surface represents arguably the most fascinating surface reconstruction so far observed in nature. Yet, the atomistic mechanism underpinning its formation remains unclear after it was discovered sixty years ago. Experimentally, it is observed post priori so that analysis of its formation mechanism can only be carried out in analogy with archaeology. Theoretically, density-functional theory (DFT) correctly predicts the Si(111)-(7×7) ground state but is impractical to simulate its formation process; while empirical potentials failed to produce it as the ground state. Developing an artificial neural-network potential of DFT quality, we carried out accurate large-scale simulations to unravel the formation of the Si(111)-(7×7) surface. We reveal a possible step-mediated atom-pop rate-limiting process that triggers massive nonconserved atomic rearrangements, most remarkably, a critical process of collective vacancy diffusion that mediates a sequence of selective dimer, corner-hole, stacking-fault, and dimer-line pattern formation, to fulfill the 7×7 reconstruction. Our findings may not only solve the long-standing mystery of this famous surface reconstruction but they also illustrate the power of machine learning in studying complex structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Localized keyhole pore prediction during laser powder bed fusion via multimodal process monitoring and X-ray radiography

Systematic fault detection and control during laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) has been a long-standing objective for system manufacturers and researchers in the additive manufacturing (AM) industry. This manuscript investigates a data fusion approach for detection of keyhole porosity formation during laser irradiation of Ti-6Al-4V substrates by concurrent recording of thermally induced optical emission measured using both off-axis and coaxial photodiode sensors, and acoustic emission. Subsurface defect formation was monitored via high-speed synchrotron X-ray imaging at 20,000 frames per second, enabling temporal registration of keyhole pore formation events to the monitoring signals at a resolution of 50 µs. We developed data fusion machine learning (ML) models for localized prediction of keyhole pore formation at various time scales ranging from 0.5 ms to 2 ms. The signal segments were featurized using two independent approaches: (1) power spectral density (PSD) and (2) highly comparative time series analysis (HCTSA) framework. The extracted features from different sensor modalities were fused together to construct a multimodal feature space and sequential feature selection was used to determine the most informative features for training the ML models. The predictive performance was evaluated for three classifying algorithms: Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB). As a result, pore formation events were predicted with up to 0.95 F1-score, 1.0 recall and 0.94 accuracy. The most heavily weighted features indicate that model performance is chiefly governed by the acoustic monitoring signal, with a secondary contribution from the optical emission sensors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2003

TF41 Engine Fan Disk Seeded Fault Crack Propagation Test

Uncontained engine failures, although rare in occurrence, can have a catastrophic effect on aircraft performance and safety. Engine disk cracks can eventually lead to these type of failures. A number of techniques to detect engine disk cracks have been developed in recent years. However, these technologies have only been validated by disk spin pit tests, not actual engine tests. Due to this, a project was established to perform seeded fault engine tests on a TF41 engine disk fan. A defect was machined in the first stage fan disk of a TF41 engine. The disk was run in a spin pit to initiate a crack. Once initiated, the disk was run in an actual engine test facility. The engine was cycled by a number of start and stops with the goal of propagating the crack to disk burst through low cycle fatigue. Various crack detection techniques were installed on the engine and run real-time during the test to validate their abilities to detect disk cracks. These techniques were based on methods such as change in mass imbalance using vibration or shaft displacement, change in blade position, acoustic emission, and torsional resonance. At the completion of 4474 test cycles, the crack in the TF41 disk was determined to have grown approximately 0.025 inches. This was far less the predicted crack growth based on a fracture mechanics analysis and finite element stress analysis.

Lewicki, David G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Errant Beam Prognostics with Machine Leaning at SNS Accelerator

Particle Accelerators are complex machine with many pieces of equipment running in synchronization to deliver required beam. However, faults in particle accelerators reduce the availability of the beam for experiments affecting the overall science output. To avoid these faults, we apply anomaly detection techniques to predict any unusual behavior and perform preemptive actions to improve the total availability. Many researchers have adopted semi-supervised Machine Learning (ML) methods such as auto-encoders and variational auto-encoders for such tasks. However, supervised ML techniques designed for similarity learning such as Siamese Neural Network (SNN) can outperform semi-supervised or unsupervised methods for anomaly prediction. One of the challenges associated with application of ML models to particle accelerators is the variability in observed data over time due to system configuration changes. We employ conditional models such as Conditional Siamese Neural Networks (CSNN), and Conditional-VAE (CVAE) to learn the variability in the data by using beam configuration parameters as conditional input. We apply these models for errant beam prediction at Spallation Neutron Source accelerator under different system configurations and compare their performance. We demonstrate that CSNN outperforms CVAE in our application. This talk will present the data source, collection, analysis, data-preparation, model development, hyper-parameter studies and the results.

Rajput, Kishansingh↗
DOE OSTI2020

DEEP CELLULAR RECURRENT NEURAL ARCHITECTURE FOR EFFICIENT MULTIDIMENSIONAL TIME-SERIES DATA PROCESSING

Efficient processing of time series data is a fundamental yet challenging problem in pattern recognition. Though recent developments in machine learning and deep learning have enabled remarkable improvements in processing large scale datasets in many application domains, most are designed and regulated to handle inputs that are static in time. Many real-world data, such as in biomedical, surveillance and security, financial, manufacturing and engineering applications, are rarely static in time, and demand models able to recognize patterns in both space and time. Current machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models adapted for time series processing tend to grow in complexity and size to accommodate the additional dimensionality of time. Specifically, the biologically inspired learning based models known as artificial neural networks that have shown extraordinary success in pattern recognition, tend to grow prohibitively large and cumbersome in the presence of large scale multi-dimensional time series biomedical data such as EEG. Consequently, this work aims to develop representative ML and DL models for robust and efficient large scale time series processing. First, we design a novel ML pipeline with efficient feature engineering to process a large scale multi-channel scalp EEG dataset for automated detection of epileptic seizures. With the use of a sophisticated yet computationally efficient time-frequency analysis technique known as harmonic wavelet packet transform and an efficient self-similarity computation based on fractal dimension, we achieve state-of-the-art performance for automated seizure detection in EEG data. Subsequently, we investigate the development of a novel efficient deep recurrent learning model for large scale time series processing. For this, we first study the functionality and training of a biologically inspired neural network architecture known as cellular simultaneous recurrent neural network (CSRN). We obtain a generalization of this network for multiple topological image processing tasks and investigate the learning efficacy of the complex cellular architecture using several state-of-the?art training methods. Finally, we develop a novel deep cellular recurrent neural network (CDRNN) architecture based on the biologically inspired distributed processing used in CSRN for processing time series data. The proposed DCRNN leverages the cellular recurrent architecture to promote extensive weight sharing and efficient, individualized, synchronous processing of multi-source time series data. Experiments on a large scale multi-channel scalp EEG, and a machine fault detection dataset show that the proposed DCRNN offers state-of-the-art recognition performance while using substantially fewer trainable recurrent units.

Vidyaratne, Lasitha S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wasatch Fault Structure from Machine Learning Arrival Times and High-Precision Earthquake Locations

Abstract On 18 March 2020, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake hit the Salt Lake valley in the state of Utah, United States. Using a dense geophone deployment and machine learning (ML), an additional several thousand events were detected and located. Currently, both the mainshock and the majority of the aftershocks are suspected to have occurred on or near a deeper portion of the Salt Lake segment of the Wasatch fault—part of a large range-bounding fault system thought to be capable of generating an Mw 7.2 earthquake. However, a small subset of aftershocks may have occurred on a portion of the more steeply, eastward dipping, and poorly understood West Valley fault. Unfortunately, the catalog locations and lack of focal mechanisms for this subset of aftershocks provide only a crude constraint on the true fault structure. To better illuminate fault structure, we relocate the ML-generated catalog with a range of magnitudes from −2 to 4.6, using: (1) NonLinLoc, a nonlinear location algorithm, (2) source-specific station terms, and (3) waveform coherence. We further compute first-motion focal mechanisms for 68 events. Results of the relocation suggest a simpler, minimally listric Wasatch fault geometry, contrary to what has been previously proposed. We also find that analysis of the focal mechanisms and waveform similarity indicates minimal event similarity throughout the Magna sequence, suggesting a highly complex and heterogeneous rupture zone, as opposed to rupture on a single plane. These findings suggest an increased seismic hazard due to the overall shallowness of the earthquake sequence and highly varied rupture mechanisms.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
NASA NTRS1999

Information Technology and the Autonomous Control of a Mars In-Situ Propellant Production System

With the rapidly increasing performance of information technology, i.e., computer hardware and software systems, as well as networks and communication systems, a new capability is being developed that holds the clear promise of greatly increased exploration capability, along with dramatically reduced design, development, and operating costs. These new intelligent systems technologies, utilizing knowledge-based software and very high performance computer systems, will provide new design and development tools, scheduling mechanisms, and vehicle and system health monitoring capabilities. In addition, specific technologies such as neural nets will provide a degree of machine intelligence and associated autonomy which has previously been unavailable to the mission and spacecraft designer and to the system operator. One of the most promising applications of these new information technologies is to the area of in situ resource utilization. Useful resources such as oxygen, compressed carbon dioxide, water, methane, and buffer gases can be extracted and/or generated from planetary atmospheres, such as the Martian atmosphere. These products, when used for propulsion and life-support needs can provide significant savings in the launch mass and costs for both robotic and crewed missions. In the longer term the utilization of indigenous resources is an enabling technology that is vital to sustaining long duration human presence on Mars. This paper will present the concepts that are currently under investigation and development for mining the Martian atmosphere, such as temperature-swing adsorption, zirconia electrolysis etc., to create propellants and life-support materials. This description will be followed by an analysis of the information technology and control needs for the reliable and autonomous operation of such processing plants in a fault tolerant manner, as well as the approach being taken for the development of the controlling software. Finally, there will be a brief discussion of the verification and validation process so crucial to the implementation of mission-critical software.

Gross, Anthony R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Durability of Balance of Systems Components Using Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing

The degradation of photovoltaic (PV) balance of systems (BoS) components is not well-studied, but the consequences include: offline-modules, -strings, -inverters; system shutdown; arc-faults; and fires. A utility provider experienced a ~30% failure rate in their power transfer chain, attributed to branch connectors. Field-failed specimen assemblies were therefore examined, consisting of cable connector, branch connector and discrete fuse components. Unused field-vintage specimens are presently being examined using combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) to clarify the most influential environmental stressors as well as the effect of external mechanical perturbation. A benchtop prototype fixture was used to develop the perturbation capability for C-AST. The benchtop experiments were also used to develop the in-situ data acquisition of specimen: current, voltage, and temperature. A significant increase in operating temperature, ~100 deg C from ~40 deg C, and a different failure mode was observed immediately once periodic mechanical perturbation was applied. The current at failure was decreased from 35 A (with failure occurring in the fuses) to 15 A (failure at the male/female metal pin connection). After initial examination using X-ray computed tomography, the external plastic was machined away from failed specimens to allow failure analysis, including the extraction of the internal convolute springs for morphological examination (optical- and electron-microscopy). Chemical composition analysis included: energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy.

balance of systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Durability of Balance of Systems Components Using Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing: Preprint

The degradation of photovoltaic (PV) balance of systems (BoS) components is not well-studied, but the consequences include: offline-modules, -strings, -inverters; system shutdown; arc-faults; and fires. A utility provider experienced a ~30% failure rate in their power transfer chain, originally attributed to branch connectors. Field-failed specimen assemblies were therefore examined, consisting of cable connector, branch connector, and discrete fuse components. Unused field-vintage specimens are presently being examined using combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) to clarify the most influential environmental stressors as well as the effect of external mechanical perturbation. A benchtop prototype fixture was used to develop the perturbation capability for the C-AST chamber. The benchtop experiments were also used to develop the in-situ data acquisition of specimen: current, voltage, and temperature. A significant increase in operating temperature, ~100 deg C from ~40 deg C, and a different failure mode was observed promptly once periodic mechanical perturbation was applied. The current at failure was decreased from 35 A (with failure in the fuses) to 15 A (failure at the male/female metal pin connection). After initial examination using X-ray computed tomography, the external plastic was machined away from failed specimens to allow failure analysis, including the extraction of the internal convolute springs for morphological examination (optical- and electron-microscopy).

balance of systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Durability of Balance of Systems Components Using Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing

The degradation of photovoltaic (PV) balance of systems (BoS) components is not well-studied, but the consequences include offline modules, strings, and inverters; system shutdown; arc faults; and fires. A utility provider experienced a ~30% failure rate in their power transfer chain, originally attributed to branch connectors. Field-failed specimen assemblies were therefore examined, consisting of cable connector, branch connector, and discrete fuse components. In this study, unused field-vintage specimens are examined using combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) to clarify the most influential environmental stressors as well as the effect of external mechanical perturbation. A benchtop prototype fixture was used to develop the perturbation capability for the C-AST chamber. The benchtop experiments were also used to develop the in-situ data acquisition of specimen current, voltage, and temperature. A significant increase in operating temperature (~100 degrees C from ~40 degrees C) and a different failure mode were observed promptly once periodic mechanical perturbation was applied. The current at failure was decreased from 35 A (with failure in the fuses) to 15 A (failure at the male/female metal pin connection). After initial examination using X-ray computed tomography, the external plastic was machined away from failed specimens to allow for failure analysis, including the extraction of the internal convolute springs for morphological examination (optical and electron microscopy).

balance of systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scaling Superconducting Quantum Computers with Chiplet Architectures

Fixed-frequency transmon quantum computers (QCs) have advanced in coherence times, addressability, and gate fidelities. Unfortunately, these devices are restricted by the number of on-chip qubits, capping processing power and slowing progress toward fault-tolerance. Although emerging transmon devices feature over 100 qubits, building QCs large enough for meaningful demonstrations of quantum advantage requires overcoming many design challenges. For example, today’s transmon qubits suffer from significant variation due to limited precision in fabrication. As a result, barring significant improvements in current fabrication techniques, scaling QCs by building ever larger individual chips with more qubits is hampered by device variation. Severe device variation that degrades QC performance is referred to as a defect. Here, we focus on a specific defect known as a frequency collision. When transmon frequencies collide, their difference falls within a range that limits two-qubit gate fidelity. Frequency collisions occur with greater probability on larger QCs, causing collision-free yields to decline as the number of on-chip qubits increases. As a solution, we propose exploiting the higher yields associated with smaller QCs by integrating quantum chiplets within quantum multi-chip modules (MCMs). Yield, gate performance, and application-based analysis show the feasibility of QC scaling through modularity. Our results demonstrate that chiplet architectures, relative to monolithic designs, benefit from average yield improvements ranging from 9.6 – 92.6 × for ≲5 qubit machines. In addition, our simulations explore the design space of chiplet systems and discover configurations that demonstrate average two-qubit gate infidelity reductions that are at best 0.815 × their monolithic counterpart. Lastly, we observe that carefully-selected modular systems achieve fidelity improvements on a range of benchmark circuits.

quantum architecture↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗