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At least 145 records · Page 8

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Permafrost Formation in a Meandering River Floodplain

Abstract Permafrost influences 25% of land in the Northern Hemisphere, where it stabilizes the ground beneath communities and infrastructure and sequesters carbon. However, the coevolution of permafrost, river dynamics, and vegetation in Arctic environments remains poorly understood. As rivers meander, they erode the floodplain at cutbanks and build new land through bar deposition, creating sequences of landforms with distinct formation ages. Here we mapped these sequences along the Koyukuk River floodplain, Alaska, analyzing permafrost occurrence, and landform and vegetation types. We used radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to develop a floodplain age map. Deposit ages ranged from modern to 10 ka, with more younger deposits near the modern channel. Permafrost rapidly reached 50% areal extent in all deposits older than 200 years then gradually increased up to ∼85% extent for deposits greater than 4 Kyr old. Permafrost extent correlated with increases in black spruce and wetland abundance, as well as increases in permafrost extent within wetland, and shrub and scrub vegetation classes. We developed an inverse model to constrain permafrost formation rate as a function of air temperature. Permafrost extent initially increased by ∼25% per century, in pace with vegetation succession, before decelerating to <10% per millennia as insulating overbank mud and moss slowly accumulated. Modern permafrost extent on the Koyukuk floodplain therefore reflects a dynamic balance between widespread, time‐varying permafrost formation and rapid, localized degradation due to cutbank erosion that might trigger a rapid loss of permafrost with climatic warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing the Understanding of Snow Accumulation, Melting, and Associated Thermal Insulation Using Spatially Dense Snow Depth and Temperature Time Series

Snow thermal insulation is a critical factor influencing ground thermal dynamics and associated biogeochemical processes. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of snow accumulation, melting, and thermal insulation dynamics using spatially dense, collocated snow depth and ground interface temperature time series over two consecutive years. We demonstrated that considering late‐winter snow depth alone was insufficient to fully capture the complexity in snow and insulation dynamics. The influence of vegetation and topography on snow depth distribution varied over the season, across sites and years. We found that deep snow with a long melting period had a substantial impact on thawing n‐factors. To better predict snow insulation effects, we proposed a new weighted snow depth metric that integrates mean daily snow depth and air temperature throughout the cold season. Our results provide insights for developing space‐time remote sensing products and evaluating the representation of snow and permafrost processes in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Amapari Marker Band Metal‐Enrichments: Potential Mechanisms and Implications for Surface and Subsurface Water and Weathering in Gale Crater

NASA's Curiosity rover is exploring a 5 km tall sedimentary mound that is hypothesized to record the transition from a warm and wet (phyllosilicate-rich) to a cold and drier (sulfate-rich) Mars. Evidence of magnesium sulfate-bearing rock has shown that Curiosity has crossed through this phyllosilicate-sulfate transition. Recently, Curiosity arrived at the Amapari Marker Band, a darker, indurated unit that can be traced laterally for tens of kilometers in orbiter images. Here, Curiosity found evidence for a very broad lake, and bedforms interpreted as wave-ripple laminated sedimentary rock that likely was deposited in shallow water in the explored location, before becoming a deeper lake. These rocks are enriched in Fe, Mn, and Zn which has major implications for groundwater paleohydrology in Gale crater. Three formation hypotheses are considered: concretion formation during early diagenetic alteration of shallow lake sediments, laterization or leaching of the sediments, and addition of Fe, Mn, and Zn by a mildly acidic and reducing groundwater interacting with a redox and/or pH front in a stratified lake. The preferred interpretation of the metal enrichments within the Amapari Marker band sedimentary rocks is that they formed in a shallow water environment at a redox and/or pH front within the ripple unit, which drove precipitation and concentration of metals. If the enrichments are due to groundwater alteration, these processes could link subsurface and surface environments. Water and the presence of high amounts of redox sensitive elements and other metals are favorable indicators for habitability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimating Soil Thermal Inertia Profiles From the Passive Equilibration of a Temperature Probe

Knowledge of the distribution of soil thermal properties is important for understanding subsurface hydrological and biogeochemical processes. This study describes and evaluates quick thermal profiling (QTP), a new measurement technique aimed at providing rapid, depth-resolved measurements of soil thermal inertia at numerous locations across the landscape. A cylindrical probe with temperature sensors at multiple depths is quickly inserted into the ground, and soil thermal inertia is estimated from how quickly the probe temperature equilibrates with the soil. To this end, a finite volume heat transfer model is used to generate temperature equilibration time series across combinations of controlling factors, and a gridded search inversion approach is applied to infer soil thermal inertia. Field tests in the Arctic indicate that QTP measurements have a minimum uncertainty of 0.14 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 and covary with dual-probe heat pulse thermal analyzer measurements (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.56) with a root-mean-square error of 0.40 J m −2 K −1 s −1/2 . Besides demonstrating the value of QTP for estimating thermal inertia, this study identifies various sources of measurement uncertainty, particularly probe-soil contact resistance and frictional heating. Further, analysis of soil samples indicates that thermal inertia can be used to estimate thermal conductivity and dry bulk density in the studied area, although such inferences are highly site-specific. Overall, the QTP method holds promise to generate thermal inertia data products and to complement other characterization approaches for advancing understanding of soil properties across far more locations than is currently possible.

Lamb, J. R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗

A Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Microphysical Properties of Ice Crystals From Cloud Particle Imagery

The microphysical properties of ice crystals are important because they significantly alter the radiative properties and spatiotemporal distributions of clouds, which in turn strongly affect Earth's climate. However, it is challenging to measure key properties of ice crystals, such as mass or morphological features. Here, we present a proof-of-concept framework for predicting three-dimensional (3D) microphysical properties of ice crystals from in situ two-dimensional (2D) imagery. First, we computationally generated synthetic ice crystals using 3D modeling software along with geometric parameters estimated from the 2021 Ice Cryo-Encapsulation Balloon (ICEBall) field campaign. Then, we used synthetic crystals to train machine learning (ML) models to predict effective density ($ρ_e$), effective surface area ($A_e$), and number of bullets ($N_b$) from synthetic rosette imagery. On unseen synthetic images, our ML models accurately predicted ice crystal properties. ResNet-18 performed best, achieving $R^2$ values of 0.99 and 0.98 for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$, respectively, and MAE of 0.10 for mathematical equation in single view tasks. Stereo view ResNet-18 further reduced RMSE by 40% for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$ and reduced MAE by 0.08 for $N_b$. This work provides a novel ML-driven framework for estimating ice microphysical properties from in situ imagery, which will allow for downstream constraints on microphysical parameterizations, such as the mass-size relationship.

Ko, J. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United State↗

Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.

Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗

Ising meson spectroscopy on a noisy digital quantum simulator

Abstract Quantum simulation has the potential to be an indispensable technique for the investigation of non-perturbative phenomena in strongly-interacting quantum field theories (QFTs). In the modern quantum era, with Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) simulators widely available and larger-scale quantum machines on the horizon, it is natural to ask: what non-perturbative QFT problems can be solved with the existing quantum hardware? We show that existing noisy quantum machines can be used to analyze the energy spectrum of several strongly-interacting 1+1D QFTs, which exhibit non-perturbative effects like ‘quark confinement’ and ‘false vacuum decay’. We perform quench experiments on IBM’s quantum simulators to compute the energy spectrum of 1+1D quantum Ising model with a longitudinal field. Our results demonstrate that digital quantum simulation in the NISQ era has the potential to be a viable alternative to numerical techniques such as density matrix renormalization group or the truncated conformal space methods for analyzing QFTs.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Precisely patterned nanofibres made from extendable protein multiplexes

Molecular systems with coincident cyclic and superhelical symmetry axes have considerable advantages for materials design as they can be readily lengthened or shortened by changing the length of the constituent monomers. Among proteins, alpha-helical coiled coils have such symmetric, extendable architectures, but are limited by the relatively fixed geometry and flexibility of the helical protomers. Here we describe a systematic approach to generating modular and rigid repeat protein oligomers with coincident C 2 to C 8 and superhelical symmetry axes that can be readily extended by repeat propagation. From these building blocks, we demonstrate that a wide range of unbounded fibres can be systematically designed by introducing hydrophilic surface patches that force staggering of the monomers; the geometry of such fibres can be precisely tuned by varying the number of repeat units in the monomer and the placement of the hydrophilic patches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being

Mitigation solutions are often evaluated in terms of costs and greenhouse gas reduction potentials, missing out on the consideration of direct effects on human well-being. Here, we systematically assess the mitigation potential of demand-side options categorized into avoid, shift and improve, and their human well-being links. Here we show that these options, bridging socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40–80% in end-use sectors. Based on expert judgement and an extensive literature database, we evaluate 306 combinations of well-being outcomes and demand-side options, finding largely beneficial effects in improvement in well-being (79% positive, 18% neutral and 3% negative), even though we find low confidence on the social dimensions of well-being. Implementing such nuanced solutions is based axiomatically on an understanding of malleable rather than fixed preferences, and procedurally on changing infrastructures and choice architectures. Results demonstrate the high mitigation potential of demand-side mitigation options that are synergistic with well-being.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tuning the solvation structure with salts for stable sodium-metal batteries

Sodium-metal batteries are an appealing, sustainable, low-cost alternative to lithium metal batteries due to the high abundance and theoretical specific capacity (1,165 mA h g -1 ) of sodium. However, the poor compatibility of the electrolyte with the cathode and anode leads to unstable electrode-electrolyte interphases. Here we introduce the concept of using a salt as a diluent, which enables the use of a single non-flammable solvent, such as trimethyl phosphate. By using sodium nitrate (NaNO 3 ) salt as a model diluent, we report a 1.1 M NaFSI-NaNO 3 -trimethyl phosphate electrolyte that forms a stable interface with sodium-metal anode. In addition, the formation of robust cathode-electrolyte interphases on Na(Ni 0.3 Fe 0.4 Mn 0.3 )O 2 cathode facilitates smooth phase transitions, thus leading to stable cycle life with a capacity retention of 80% over 500 cycles at C/5 rate in Na||Na(Ni 0.3 Fe 0.4 Mn 0.3 )O 2 cells. Further, the work demonstrates a promising approach towards the development of safe, low-cost, sustainable high-performance sodium-metal batteries. Electrolytes with non-flammable solvents are important for the safe operation of sodium-metal batteries. Here the authors report an electrolyte engineering approach, employing salts as a diluent, to enhance interfacial stability and overall safety.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Shortwave absorption by wildfire smoke dominated by dark brown carbon

Abstract Wildfires emit large amounts of black carbon and light-absorbing organic carbon, known as brown carbon, into the atmosphere. These particles perturb Earth’s radiation budget through absorption of incoming shortwave radiation. It is generally thought that brown carbon loses its absorptivity after emission in the atmosphere due to sunlight-driven photochemical bleaching. Consequently, the atmospheric warming effect exerted by brown carbon remains highly variable and poorly represented in climate models compared with that of the relatively nonreactive black carbon. Given that wildfires are predicted to increase globally in the coming decades, it is increasingly important to quantify these radiative impacts. Here we present measurements of ensemble-scale and particle-scale shortwave absorption in smoke plumes from wildfires in the western United States. We find that a type of dark brown carbon contributes three-quarters of the short visible light absorption and half of the long visible light absorption. This strongly absorbing organic aerosol species is water insoluble, resists daytime photobleaching and increases in absorptivity with night-time atmospheric processing. Our findings suggest that parameterizations of brown carbon in climate models need to be revised to improve the estimation of smoke aerosol radiative forcing and associated warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Picosecond volume expansion drives a later-time insulator–metal transition in a nano-textured Mott insulator

There is significant technological interest in developing ever faster switching between different electronic and magnetic states of matter. Manipulating properties at terahertz rates requires accessing the intrinsic timescales of both electrons and associated phonons, which is possible with short-pulse photoexcitation. However, in many Mott insulators, the electronic transition is accompanied by the nucleation and growth of percolating domains of the changed lattice structure, leading to empirical timescales dominated by slowly coarsening dynamics. Here, in this study, we use time-resolved X-ray diffraction and reflectivity measurements to show that the photoinduced insulator-to-metal transition in an epitaxially strained Mott insulating thin film occurs without observable domain formation and coarsening effects, allowing the study of the intrinsic electronic and lattice dynamics. Above a fluence threshold, the initial electronic excitation drives a fast lattice rearrangement, which is followed by a slower electronic evolution into a metastable nonequilibrium state. Microscopic model calculations based on time-dependent dynamical mean-field theory and semiclassical lattice dynamics explain the threshold behaviour and elucidate the delayed onset of the electronic phase transition. This work highlights the importance of combined electronic and structural studies in unravelling the physics of dynamic transitions and the timescales of photoinduced processes. During a photoinduced phase transition, electronic rearrangements are usually faster than lattice ones. Time-resolved measurements now show that the insulator-to-metal transition in a thin-film Mott insulator is preceded by lattice reconfiguration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Heavy-element production in a compact object merger observed by JWST

The mergers of binary compact objects such as neutron stars and black holes are of central interest to several areas of astrophysics, including as the progenitors of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), sources of high-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) and likely production sites for heavy-element nucleosynthesis by means of rapid neutron capture (the r -process). Here we present observations of the exceptionally bright GRB 230307A. We show that GRB 230307A belongs to the class of long-duration GRBs associated with compact object mergers and contains a kilonova similar to AT2017gfo, associated with the GW merger GW170817. We obtained James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) mid-infrared imaging and spectroscopy 29 and 61 days after the burst. The spectroscopy shows an emission line at 2.15 microns, which we interpret as tellurium (atomic mass A = 130) and a very red source, emitting most of its light in the mid-infrared owing to the production of lanthanides. These observations demonstrate that nucleosynthesis in GRBs can create r -process elements across a broad atomic mass range and play a central role in heavy-element nucleosynthesis across the Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

De novo design of high-affinity binders of bioactive helical peptides

Many peptide hormones form an α-helix on binding their receptors, and sensitive methods for their detection could contribute to better clinical management of disease. De novo protein design can now generate binders with high affinity and specificity to structured proteins. However, the design of interactions between proteins and short peptides with helical propensity is an unmet challenge. Here we describe parametric generation and deep learning-based methods for designing proteins to address this challenge. We show that by extending RFdiffusion to enable binder design to flexible targets, and to refining input structure models by successive noising and denoising (partial diffusion), picomolar-affinity binders can be generated to helical peptide targets by either refining designs generated with other methods, or completely de novo starting from random noise distributions without any subsequent experimental optimization. The RFdiffusion designs enable the enrichment and subsequent detection of parathyroid hormone and glucagon by mass spectrometry, and the construction of bioluminescence-based protein biosensors. The ability to design binders to conformationally variable targets, and to optimize by partial diffusion both natural and designed proteins, should be broadly useful.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Design of amyloidogenic peptide traps

Segments of proteins with high β-strand propensity can self-associate to form amyloid fibrils implicated in many diseases. We describe a general approach to bind such segments in β-strand and β-hairpin conformations using de novo designed scaffolds that contain deep peptide-binding clefts. The designs bind their cognate peptides in vitro with nanomolar affinities. The crystal structure of a designed protein–peptide complex is close to the design model, and NMR characterization reveals how the peptide-binding cleft is protected in the apo state. We use the approach to design binders to the amyloid-forming proteins transthyretin, tau, serum amyloid A1 and amyloid β 1–42 (Aβ42). The Aβ binders block the assembly of Aβ fibrils as effectively as the most potent of the clinically tested antibodies to date and protect cells from toxic Aβ42 species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗