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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Three Dimensional Analysis of Pier Extension and Guide Wall Design Alternatives to Mitigate Local Scour Risk at the BNSF Railroad Bridge Downstream of the Prado Dam

The primary objectives of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis are (1) to verify that the design concept of using wedge shaped pier extensions to divert flow around piers as a scour counter measure has the intended effect on the flow, (2) to refine the design of the length and orientation of the pier extensions within the channel and (3) to optimize the guide walls that will protect a set of outer piers and the abutments on each side of the channel. The original proposed design is shown in Figure 1.3. The results of this effort are the recommended designs that are judged to be the best designs based on results from the set of test cases run combined with engineering judgment. The refined designs from the CFD analysis are expected to be tested in a limited set of physical model experiments to verify that they work well.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Sandia National Laboratories Facilities Management and Operations Center Design Standards Manual

At Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico (SNL/NM), the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of facilities is guided by industry standards, a graded approach, and the systematic analysis of life cycle benefits received for costs incurred. The design of the physical plant must ensure that the facilities are "fit for use," and provide conditions that effectively, efficiently, and safely support current and future mission needs. In addition, SNL/NM applies sustainable design principles, using an integrated whole-building design approach, from site planning to facility design, construction, and operation to ensure building resource efficiency and the health and productivity of occupants. The safety and health of the workforce and the public, any possible effects on the environment, and compliance with building codes take precedence over project issues, such as performance, cost, and schedule. These design standards generally apply to all disciplines on all SNL/NM projects. Architectural and engineering design must be both functional and cost-effective. Facility design must be tailored to fit its intended function, while emphasizing low-maintenance, energy-efficient, and energy-conscious design. Design facilities that can be maintained easily, with readily accessible equipment areas, low maintenance, and quality systems. To promote an orderly and efficient appearance, architectural features of new facilities must complement and enhance the existing architecture at the site. As an Architectural and Engineering (A/E) professional, you must advise the Project Manager when this approach is prohibitively expensive. You are encouraged to use professional judgment and ingenuity to produce a coordinated interdisciplinary design that is cost-effective, easily contractible or buildable, high-performing, aesthetically pleasing, and compliant with applicable building codes. Close coordination and development of civil, landscape, structural, architectural, fire protection, mechanical, electrical, telecommunications, and security features is expected to ensure compatibility with planned functional equipment and to facilitate constructability. If portions of the design are subcontracted to specialists, delivery of the finished design documents must not be considered complete until the subcontracted portions are also submitted for review. You must, along with support consultants, perform functional analyses and programming in developing design solutions. These solutions must reflect coordination of the competing functional, budgetary, and physical requirements for the project. During design phases, meetings between you and the SNL/NM Project Team to discuss and resolve design issues are required. These meetings are a normal part of the design process. For specific design-review requirements, see the project-specific Design Criteria. In addition to the design requirements described in this manual, instructive information is provided to explain the sustainable building practice goals for design, construction, operation, and maintenance of SNL/NM facilities. Please notify SNL/NM personnel of design best practices not included in this manual, so they can be incorporated in future updates. You must convey all documents describing work to the SNL/NM Project Manager in both hard copy and in an electronic format compatible with the SNL/NM-prescribed CADD and other software packages, and in accordance with a SNL/NM approved standard format. Print all hard copy versions of submitted documents (excluding drawings and renderings) double-sided when practical.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Look-ahead driver feedback and powertrain management

Commercial medium and heavy vehicles, though only a small portion of total vehicle population, play a significant role in energy consumption. In 2012, these vehicles accounted for about 5775.5 trillion btu of energy consumption and 408.8 million tons of CO2 emissions annually, which is a quarter of the total energy burden of highway transportation in the United States [1]. This number is expected to surpass passenger car fuel use within the next few decades. In the meantime, most commercial vehicle fleets are running at a very low profit margin. It is a well known fact that fuel economy can vary significantly between drivers, even when they operate the same vehicle on the same route. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Natural Resource Canada (NRCan), there is up to 35% fuel economy difference between drivers within the same commercial fleet [2] [3], [4]. Similar results were obtained from a Field Operation Test conducted by Eaton Corporation [5]. During this test as much as 30% fuel economy difference was observed among pick-up-and-delivery drivers and 11% difference was observed among line-haul drivers. The driver variability can be attributed to the fact that different drivers react differently to driving conditions such as road grade, traffic, speed limits, etc. For instance, analysis of over 600k miles of naturalistic heavy duty truck driving data [5] indicates that an experienced driver anticipates a downhill and eases up on the throttle to save fuel while an inexperienced driver lacks this judgment.

Verma, Rajeev↗
DOE OSTI2015

NSRD-06. Computational Capability to Substantiate DOE-HDBK-3010 Data

Safety basis analysts throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex rely heavily on the information provided in the DOE Hand book, DOE-HDBK-3010, Airborne Release Fractions/Rates and Resp irable Fractions for Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities , to determine source terms. In calcula ting source terms, analysts tend to use the DOE Handbook's bounding values on airbor ne release fractions (ARFs) and respirable fractions (RFs) for various cat egories of insults (representing potential accident release categories). This is typica lly due to both time constraints and the avoidance of regulatory critique. Unfort unately, these bounding ARFs/RFs represent extremely conservative values. Moreover, th ey were derived from very limited small- scale table-top and bench/labo ratory experiments and/or fr om engineered judgment. Thus the basis for the data may not be re presentative to the actual unique accident conditions and configura tions being evaluated. The goal of this res earch is to develop a more ac curate method to identify bounding values for the DOE Handbook using the st ate-of-art multi-physics-based high performance computer codes. This enable s us to better understand the fundamental physics and phenomena associated with the ty pes of accidents for the data described in it. This research has examined two of the DOE Handbook's liquid fire experiments to substantiate the airborne release frac tion data. We found th at additional physical phenomena (i.e., resuspension) need to be included to derive bounding values. For the specific cases of solid powder under pre ssurized condition and mechanical insult conditions the codes demonstrated that we can simulate the phenomena. This work thus provides a low-cost method to establis h physics-justified sa fety bounds by taking into account specific geometri es and conditions that may not have been previously measured and/or are too costly to do so.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of grid modernization activities. The availability of a grid HILF risk model, integrated across multi-hazard domains which, when interrogated, can support transparent, defensible and effective decisions, is an attractive prospect among these communities. In this report, we document an integrated HILF risk framework intended to inform the development of risk models. These models would be based on the systematic and comprehensive (to within scope) characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk, identification of the stressors associated with the hazards (i.e., the means of impacting grid and supporting infrastructure), characterization of the vulnerability of assets to these stressors and the probabilities of asset compromise, the grid’s dynamic response to the asset failures, and assessment of subsequent severities of consequence with respect to selected impact metrics, such as power outage duration and geographic reach. Specifically, the current framework is being developed to;1. Provide the conceptual and overarching technical paradigms for the development of risk models; 2. Identify the classes of models required to implement the framework - providing examples of existing models, and also identifying where modeling gaps exist; 3. Identify the types of data required, addressing circumstances under which data are sparse and the formal elicitation of informed judgment might be required; and 4. Identify means by which the resultant risk models might be interrogated to form the necessary basis for risk management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Enhanced Soundings for Local Coupling Studies: 2015 ARM Climate Research Facility Field Campaign

Matching observed diurnal cycles is a fundamental yet extremely complex test for models. High temporal resolution measurements of surface turbulent heat fluxes and boundary layer properties are required to evaluate the daytime evolution of the boundary layer and its sensitivity to land-atmosphere coupling. To address this need, (12) one-day intensive observing periods (IOP) with enhanced radiosonding will be carried out at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (CF) during summer 2015. Each IOP will comprise a single launch to correspond with the nighttime overpass of the A-Train of satellites (~0830 UTC) and hourly launches during daytime beginning from 1130 UTC and ending at 2130 UTC. At 3-hourly intervals (i.e., 1140 UTC, 1440 UTC, 1740 UTC, and 2040 UTC) a duplicate second radiosonde will be launched 10 minutes subsequent to launch of the on-hour radiosonde for the purpose of assessing horizontal atmospheric variability. In summary, each IOP will have a 14-sounding supplement to the 6-hourly operational sounding schedule at the ARM-SGP CF. The IOP days will be decided before sunset on the preceding day, according to the judgment of the PI’s and taking into consideration daily weather forecasts and the operability of complimentary ARM-SGP CF instrumentation. An overarching goal of the project is to address how ARM could better observe land-atmosphere coupling to support the evaluation and refinement of coupled weather and climate models.

Ferguson, CR↗
DOE OSTI2016

A Report on the Validation of Beryllium Strength Models

This report discusses work on validating beryllium strength models with flyer plate and Taylor rod experimental data. Strength models are calibrated with Hopkinson bar and quasi-static data. The Hopkinson bar data for beryllium provides strain rates up to about 4000 per second. A limitation of the Hopkinson bar data for beryllium is that it only provides information on strain up to about 0.15. The lack of high strain data at high strain rates makes it difficult to distinguish between various strength model settings. The PTW model has been calibrated many different times over the last 12 years. The lack of high strain data for high strain rates has resulted in these calibrated PTW models for beryllium exhibiting significantly different behavior when extrapolated to high strain. For beryllium, the α parameter of PTW has recently been calibrated to high precision shear modulus data. In the past the α value for beryllium was set based on expert judgment. The new α value for beryllium was used in a calibration of the beryllium PTW model by Sky Sjue. The calibration by Sjue used EOS table information to model the temperature dependence of the heat capacity. Also, the calibration by Sjue used EOS table information to model the density changes of the beryllium sample during the Hopkinson bar and quasi-static experiments. In this paper, the calibrated PTW model by Sjue is compared against experimental data and other strength models. The other strength models being considered are a PTW model calibrated by Shuh- Rong Chen and a Steinberg-Guinan type model by John Pedicini. The three strength models are used in a comparison against flyer plate and Taylor rod data. The results show that the Chen PTW model provides better agreement to this data. The Chen PTW model settings have been previously adjusted to provide a better fit to flyer plate data, whereas the Sjue PTW model has not been changed based on flyer plate data. However, the Sjue model provides a reasonable fit to flyer plate and Taylor rod data, and also gives a better match to recently analyzed Z-machine data which has a strain of about 0.35 and a strain rate of 3e5 s -1 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2015

Deep Energy Retrofit Guidance for the Building America Solutions Center

The U.S. DOE Building America program has established a research agenda targeting market-relevant strategies to achieve 40% reductions in existing home energy use by 2030. Deep Energy Retrofits (DERs) are part of the strategy to meet and exceed this goal. DERs are projects that create new, valuable assets from existing residences, by bringing homes into alignment with the expectations of the 21st century. Ideally, high energy using, dated homes that are failing to provide adequate modern services to their owners and occupants (e.g., comfortable temperatures, acceptable humidity, clean, healthy), are transformed through comprehensive upgrades to the building envelope, services and miscellaneous loads into next generation high performance homes. These guidance documents provide information to aid in the broader market adoption of DERs. They are intended for inclusion in the online resource the Building America Solutions Center (BASC). This document is an assemblage of multiple entries in the BASC, each of which addresses a specific aspect of Deep Energy Retrofit best practices for projects targeting at least 50% energy reductions. The contents are based upon a review of actual DERs in the U.S., as well as a mixture of engineering judgment, published guidance from DOE research in technologies and DERs, simulations of cost-optimal DERs, Energy Star and Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE) product criteria, and energy codes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 413: Clean Slate II Plutonium Dispersion (TTR) Tonopah Test Range, Nevada (Rev. 1)

Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 413 is located on the Tonopah Test Range, which is approximately 130 miles northwest of Las Vegas, Nevada, and approximately 40 miles southeast of Tonopah, Nevada. The CAU 413 site consists of the release of radionuclides to the surface and shallow subsurface from the conduct of the Clean Slate II (CSII) storage–transportation test conducted on May 31, 1963. CAU 413 includes one corrective action site (CAS), TA-23-02CS (Pu Contaminated Soil). The known releases at CAU 413 are the result of the atmospheric deposition of contamination from the 1963 CSII test. The CSII test was a non-nuclear detonation of a nuclear device located inside a reinforced concrete bunker covered with 2 feet of soil. This test dispersed radionuclides, primarily plutonium, on the ground surface. The presence and nature of contamination at CAU 413 will be evaluated based on information collected from a corrective action investigation (CAI). The investigation is based on the data quality objectives (DQOs) developed on June 17, 2015, by representatives of the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection; the U.S. Air Force; and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office. The DQO process was used to identify and define the type, amount, and quality of data needed to develop and evaluate appropriate corrective actions for CAU 413. The CAI will include radiological surveys, geophysical surveys, collection and analyses of soil samples, and assessment of investigation results. The collection of soil samples will be accomplished using both probabilistic and judgmental sampling approaches. To facilitate site investigation and the evaluation of DQO decisions, the releases at CAU 413 have been divided into seven study groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Los Alamos National Laboratory SAVY-4000 Field Surveillance Plan Update for 2016

The Packaging Surveillance Program section of the Department of Energy (DOE) Manual 441.1-1, Nuclear Material Packaging Manual (DOE 2008), requires DOE contractors to “ensure that a surveillance program is established and implemented to ensure the nuclear material storage package continues to meet its design criteria.” The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) SAVY-4000 Field Surveillance Plan was first issued in FY 2013 (Kelly et al. 2013). The surveillance plan is reviewed annually and updated as necessary based on SAVY-4000 surveillance and other surveillance findings, as well as results of the lifetime extension studies (Blair et al. 2012, Weis et al. 2015a). The LANL SAVY-4000 Field Surveillance Plan Update was issued in 2014 (Kelly et al. 2014). This 2016 update reflects changes to the surveillance plan resulting from restrictions on handling residue materials greater than 500 g, the addition of specific engineering judgment containers, and 2015 surveillance findings. The SAVY-4000 container has a design life of five years, which was chosen as a conservative estimate of the functional properties of the materials used in the construction of the SAVY 4000 when exposed to the potential insults including temperature, corrosive materials and gases, and radiation. The SAVY-4000 container design basis is described in a safety analysis report (Anderson et al. 2013). In the National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA’s) approval of the safety analysis report, it was recommended that the design life clock begin on March 2014 (Nez et al. 2014). However, it is expected that a technical basis can be developed to extend the design life of the SAVY-4000 containers to approximately 40 years (Blair et al. 2012, Weis et al. 2015a). This surveillance plan update covers five years (2015–2019) and is developed to ensure SAVY-4000 containers meet their design criteria over the current five-year design life and to gather data that can be used in developing the technical basis for a 40-year design life. The technical basis for the longer design life will be developed based on the results of this surveillance plan and the concurrent lifetime extension studies (Blair et al. 2012, Weis et al. 2015a). A long-term surveillance plan will be developed by the completion of this plan and will be based on the results of the first several years of this five-year surveillance plan and the lifetime extension studies. In addition, the current Hagan container population is so large (approximately 3,500 LANL-wide, approximately 3,000 in PF-4) that it is anticipated Hagan containers will be in use for many years to come. Therefore, this plan includes surveillance activities for the Hagan container system during the time it takes to replace the Hagan containers with manually-compliant containers such as the SAVY 4000. These Hagan examinations not only provide information to determine if additional Hagan surveillance is needed, but also support SAVY lifetime-extension studies because some of the container components are made from similar material (e.g., stainless steel and Viton).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity-Uncertainty Based Nuclear Criticality Safety Validation

These are slides from a seminar given to the University of Mexico Nuclear Engineering Department. Whisper is a statistical analysis package developed to support nuclear criticality safety validation. It uses the sensitivity profile data for an application as computed by MCNP6 along with covariance files for the nuclear data to determine a baseline upper-subcritical-limit for the application. Whisper and its associated benchmark files are developed and maintained as part of MCNP6, and will be distributed with all future releases of MCNP6. Although sensitivity-uncertainty methods for NCS validation have been under development for 20 years, continuous-energy Monte Carlo codes such as MCNP could not determine the required adjoint-weighted tallies for sensitivity profiles. The recent introduction of the iterated fission probability method into MCNP led to the rapid development of sensitivity analysis capabilities for MCNP6 and the development of Whisper. Sensitivity-uncertainty based methods represent the future for NCS validation – making full use of today’s computer power to codify past approaches based largely on expert judgment. Validation results are defensible, auditable, and repeatable as needed with different assumptions and process models. The new methods can supplement, support, and extend traditional validation approaches.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Plutonium Critical Mass Curve Comparison to Mass at Upper Subcritical Limit (USL) Using Whisper

Whisper is computational software designed to assist the nuclear criticality safety analyst with validation studies with the MCNP ® Monte Carlo radiation transport package. Standard approaches to validation rely on the selection of benchmarks based upon expert judgment. Whisper uses sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods to select relevant benchmarks to a particular application or set of applications being analyzed. Using these benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin. Whisper attempts to quantify the margin of subcriticality (MOS) from errors in software and uncertainties in nuclear data. The combination of the Whisper-derived calculational margin and MOS comprise the baseline upper subcritical limit (USL), to which an additional margin may be applied by the nuclear criticality safety analyst as appropriate to ensure subcriticality. A series of critical mass curves for plutonium, similar to those found in Figure 31 of LA-10860-MS, have been generated using MCNP6.1.1 and the iterative parameter study software, WORM_Solver. The baseline USL for each of the data points of the curves was then computed using Whisper 1.1. The USL was then used to determine the equivalent mass for plutonium metal-water system. ANSI/ANS-8.1 states that it is acceptable to use handbook data, such as the data directly from the LA-10860-MS, as it is already considered validated (Section 4.3 4) “Use of subcritical limit data provided in ANSI/ANS standards or accepted reference publications does not require further validation.”). This paper attempts to take a novel approach to visualize traditional critical mass curves and allows comparison with the amount of mass for which the k eff is equal to the USL (calculational margin + margin of subcriticality). However, the intent is to plot the critical mass data along with USL, not to suggest that already accepted handbook data should have new and more rigorous requirements for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2016

DYNA3D/ParaDyn Regression Test Suite Inventory

The following table constitutes an initial assessment of feature coverage across the regression test suite used for DYNA3D and ParaDyn. It documents the regression test suite at the time of preliminary release 16.1 in September 2016. The columns of the table represent groupings of functionalities, e.g., material models. Each problem in the test suite is represented by a row in the table. All features exercised by the problem are denoted by a check mark (√) in the corresponding column. The definition of “feature” has not been subdivided to its smallest unit of user input, e.g., algorithmic parameters specific to a particular type of contact surface. This represents a judgment to provide code developers and users a reasonable impression of feature coverage without expanding the width of the table by several multiples. All regression testing is run in parallel, typically with eight processors, except problems involving features only available in serial mode. Many are strictly regression tests acting as a check that the codes continue to produce adequately repeatable results as development unfolds; compilers change and platforms are replaced. A subset of the tests represents true verification problems that have been checked against analytical or other benchmark solutions. Users are welcomed to submit documented problems for inclusion in the test suite, especially if they are heavily exercising, and dependent upon, features that are currently underrepresented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

NSRD-11: Computational Capability to Substantiate DOE-HDBK-3010 Data.

Safety basis analysts throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex rely heavily on the information provided in the DOE Handbook, DOE - HDBK - 3010, Airborne Release Fractions/Rates and Respirable Fractions for Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities, to determine radionuclide source terms. In calculating source terms, analysts tend to use the DOE Handbook's bounding values on airborne release fractions (ARFs) and respirable fractions (RFs) for various categories of insults (representing potential accident release categories). This is typically due to both time constraints and the avoidance of regulatory critique. Unfortunately, these bounding ARFs/RFs represent extremely conservative values. Moreover, they were derived from very limited small-scale bench/laboratory experiments and/or from engineered judgment. Thus, the basis for the data may not be representative of the actual unique accident conditions and configurations being evaluated. The goal of this research is to develop a more accurate and defensible method to determine bounding values for the DOE Handbook using state-of-art multi-physics-based computer codes. This enables us to better understand the fundamental physics and phenomena associated with the types of accidents in the handbook. In this year, this research included improvements of the high-fidelity codes to model particle resuspension and multi-component evaporation for fire scenarios. We also began to model ceramic fragmentation experiments, and to reanalyze the liquid fire and powder release experiments that were done last year. The results show that the added physics better describes the fragmentation phenomena. Thus, this work provides a low-cost method to establish physics-justified safety bounds by taking into account specific geometries and conditions that may not have been previously measured and/or are too costly to perform.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Energy valuation methods for biofuels in South Florida: Introduction to life cycle assessment and emergy approaches

Here, recent changes in the United States requiring the use of ethanol in gasoline for most vehicular transportation have created discussion about important issues, such as shifting the use of certain plants from food production to energy supply, related federal subsidies, effects on soil, water and atmosphere resources, tradeoffs between food production and energy production, speculation about biofuels as a possible means for energy security, potential reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or development and expansion of biofuels industry. A sustainable approach to biofuel production requires understanding inputs (i.e., energy required to carry out a process, both natural and anthropogenic) and outputs (i.e., energy produced by that process) and cover the entire process, as well as environmental considerations that can be overlooked in a more traditional approach. This publication gives an overview of two methods for evaluating energy transformations in biofuels production: (1) Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and (2) Emergy Assessment (EA). The LCA approach involves measurements affecting greenhouse gases (GHG), which can be linked to the energy considerations used in the EA. Although these two methods have their basis in energy or GHG evaluations, their approaches can lead to a reliable judgment regarding a biofuel process. Using these two methods can ensure that the energy components are well understood and can help to evaluate the economic environmental component of a biofuel process. In turn, using these two evaluative tools will allow for decisions about biofuel processes that favor sustainability

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Analyst-to-Analyst Variability in Simulation-Based Prediction

This report describes findings from the culminating experiment of the LDRD project entitled, "Analyst-to-Analyst Variability in Simulation-Based Prediction". For this experiment, volunteer participants solving a given test problem in engineering and statistics were interviewed at different points in their solution process. These interviews are used to trace differing solutions to differing solution processes, and differing processes to differences in reasoning, assumptions, and judgments. The issue that the experiment was designed to illuminate -- our paucity of understanding of the ways in which humans themselves have an impact on predictions derived from complex computational simulations -- is a challenging and open one. Although solution of the test problem by analyst participants in this experiment has taken much more time than originally anticipated, and is continuing past the end of this LDRD, this project has provided a rare opportunity to explore analyst-to-analyst variability in significant depth, from which we derive evidence-based insights to guide further explorations in this important area.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). As the current Light Water Reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of Systems, Structures, and Components (SSCs) degradations or failures that initiate safety-significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very high degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated, primarily based on “engineering judgment.”

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Advanced Mechanistic 3D Spatial Modeling and Analysis Methods to Accurately Represent Nuclear Facility External Event Scenarios

Probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants initially focused on events initiated by internal faults at the plant, rather than external hazards including earthquakes and flooding. Although the importance of external hazards risk analysis is now well recognized, the methods for analyzing low probability external hazards rely heavily on subjective judgment of specialists, often resulting in substantial conservatism. This research developed a framework to integrate the risk of seismic and flooding events using realistic structural models and simulation of response of nuclear structures. The results of four application case studies are presented.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗