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Alternative Perspectives on Risk

The goal of the commercial air transport system is to provide air transportation to the flying public at an acceptable cost with minimal risk. in an ideal situation these three goals would support each other. In fact, it is sometimes the case that the goals conflict: getting passengers to their destinations on time may conflict with fixing a minor mechanical malfunction that may or may not impact safety; flying a route that will avoid turbulence, thereby providing passengers with a more comfortable ride, may consume more fuel; managing traffic density may mean aircraft are delayed or must use an approach that will result in a long taxi to their gates, costing time and fuel. Various players in the system--pilots, dispatchers, controllers, as well as managers in the airline carriers and traffic management system--make decisions every day that involve trade-offs of benefits and costs. The prospect of revisions in the air traffic management system, with shifts in responsibilities from controllers to users, including airline operations center personnel and pilots, means that individuals may be performing either new jobs or old jobs under new guidance. It will be essential to know how the various players (a) perceive the risks and benefits associated with the decisions they will make under the old and new control structures, and (b) how much risk they are willing to accept in making decisions. Risk is here defined as the probability and magnitude of negative events (after Slovic, 1987). Of primary interest are risks associated with traffic, weather, and operational factors such as schedule, fuel consumption, and passenger service. Previous research has documented differences between groups in perceptions of risks associated with both everyday and aviation related situations. Risk perception varies as a function of familiarity with the situation, degree to which one is potentially affected by the risk, the level of control one has over the situation, and one's level of experience and responsibility in the situation. In our presentation we will consider several factors that may influence differences in risk perception, risk tolerance and risk management among the three major categories of participants in the aviation system (pilots, dispatchers, and controllers). Primary factors that may affect risk attitudes (the collective term we will use for the three components of risk) include: expertise or job-specific knowledge or training, personal involvement or vulnerability to consequences, goals, time horizon (imminence of consequences), span of control and type of control, and information or technology support. These will be considered in the context of five different types of risk (physical threat, economic, social, legal, and ethical). A study designed to study differences between pilots and controllers in their perceptions and responses to traffic risks under the present and a user-preferred control situation will be described. Future studies involving dispatchers' risk perceptions regarding various types of risk will be discussed.

Davison, Jeannie↗

Efficient scheduling algorithm for demand-assigned TDMA satellite systems

An efficient scheduling algorithm (stations burst plan) for demand-assigned time-division multiple-access (TDMA) satellite network systems is introduced. The total demand for transmitting data through a transponder may exceed the available bit-rate capacity, and a scheduler of the system wishes to utilize the system with minimum changes of slot allocations while maximizing throughputs. By implementing such a burst-plan algorithm, transmission of all demanded data traffic can be completed with minimum unused resources (idle slots). The underlying ideas adopted for the algorithm are that jobs with shorter remaining processing times should have higher priorities and that as many jobs are processed at a time as possible. The algorithm is particularly useful for deriving smooth burst plans for a satellite system with a large number of ground stations.

Durrani, Sajjad H.↗

Affordable and Scalable Modular Multifamily Housing: A Case Study on Cost, Construction Time Savings, and Waste Reduction in California: Preprint

Modular construction can significantly reduce waste when compared to traditional methods. This case study evaluates cost, construction time, and waste metrics for a 195-unit stick-built project and for a 66-unit modular project both based in Los Angeles, CA. We partner with SoLa Impact (real estate developer) and Model/Z (modular manufacturer) to evaluate the impact of Model/Z's 1-bedroom modular unit which is produced in a 160,000 sq ft local factory in South Los Angeles. We compare them to similar stick-built/site-built multifamily construction by the same developer in Los Angeles. This study finds that modular production reduced construction waste through precise prefabrication, concentrated workforce expertise, and streamlined logistics while cutting transportation needs, improving project efficiency and lowering associated timelines and costs. Economies of scale are being realized as Model/Z has produced over 500 affordable housing units and supplied for projects up to 188 units, shortening schedules and lowering per-unit costs and supporting affordable housing goals in income-challenged South Los Angeles. Modular methods offer a scalable, resource-efficient pathway to increasing affordable housing supply while reducing total development costs by 10-15% and project timelines by 50%, while simultaneously creating local jobs and training opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

AI in manufacturing

AI techniques are shown to have been useful in such aerospace industry tasks as vehicle configuration layouts, process planning, tool design, numerically-controlled programming of tools, production scheduling, and equipment testing and diagnosis. Accounts are given of illustrative experiences at the production facilities of three major aerospace defense contractors. Also discussed is NASA's autonomous Intelligent Computer-Aided Training System, for such ambitious manned programs as Space Station Freedom, which employs five different modules to constitute its job-independent training architecture.

Gross, John E.↗

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Kauffmann, Paul J.↗

A De-centralized Scheduling and Load Balancing Algorithm for Heterogeneous Grid Environments

In the past two decades, numerous scheduling and load balancing techniques have been proposed for locally distributed multiprocessor systems. However, they all suffer from significant deficiencies when extended to a Grid environment: some use a centralized approach that renders the algorithm unscalable, while others assume the overhead involved in searching for appropriate resources to be negligible. Furthermore, classical scheduling algorithms do not consider a Grid node to be N-resource rich and merely work towards maximizing the utilization of one of the resources. In this paper, we propose a new scheduling and load balancing algorithm for a generalized Grid model of N-resource nodes that not only takes into account the node and network heterogeneity, but also considers the overhead involved in coordinating among the nodes. Our algorithm is decentralized, scalable, and overlaps the node coordination time with that of the actual processing of ready jobs, thus saving valuable clock cycles needed for making decisions. The proposed algorithm is studied by conducting simulations using the Message Passing Interface (MPI) paradigm.

Arora, Manish↗

A De-Centralized Scheduling and Load Balancing Algorithm for Heterogeneous Grid Environments

In the past two decades, numerous scheduling and load balancing techniques have been proposed for locally distributed multiprocessor systems. However, they all suffer from significant deficiencies when extended to a Grid environment: some use a centralized approach that renders the algorithm unscalable, while others assume the overhead involved in searching for appropriate resources to be negligible. Furthermore, classical scheduling algorithms do not consider a Grid node to be N-resource rich and merely work towards maximizing the utilization of one of the resources. In this paper we propose a new scheduling and load balancing algorithm for a generalized Grid model of N-resource nodes that not only takes into account the node and network heterogeneity, but also considers the overhead involved in coordinating among the nodes. Our algorithm is de-centralized, scalable, and overlaps the node coordination time of the actual processing of ready jobs, thus saving valuable clock cycles needed for making decisions. The proposed algorithm is studied by conducting simulations using the Message Passing Interface (MPI) paradigm.

Arora, Manish↗

Generic and ML Workloads in an HPC Datacenter: Node Energy, Job Failures, and Node-Job Analysis

HPC datacenters offer a backbone to the modern digital society. Increasingly, they run Machine Learning (ML) jobs next to generic, compute-intensive workloads, supporting science, business, and other decision-making processes. However, understanding how ML jobs impact the operation of HPC datacenters, relative to generic jobs, remains desirable but understudied. In this work, we leverage long-term operational data, collected from a national-scale production HPC datacenter, and statistically compare how ML and generic jobs can impact the performance, failures, resource utilization, and energy consumption of HPC datacenters. Our study provides key insights, e.g., ML-related power usage causes GPU nodes to run into temperature limitations, median/mean runtime and failure rates are higher for ML jobs than for generic jobs, both ML and generic jobs exhibit highly variable arrival processes and resource demands, significant amounts of energy are spent on unsuccessfully terminating jobs, and concurrent jobs tend to terminate in the same state. We open-source our cleaned-up data traces on Zenodo (https://doi. org/10.5281/zenodo.13685426), and provide our analysis toolkit as software hosted on GitHub (https://github.com/atlarge-research/2024-icpads-hpc-workload-characterization). This study offers multiple benefits for data center administrators, who can improve operational efficiency, and for researchers, who can further improve system designs, scheduling techniques, etc.

crossanalysis↗

A multi-item maintenance center inventory model for low-demand reparable items

In many military and commercial contexts, complex equipment undergoes scheduled maintenance overhauls at regular intervals during which all failed components are replaced. Failure to have replacements on hand for all failed parts requires emergency measures at premium cost. When reparable parts are highly reliable and expensive, both holding and shortage costs are high. This model determines the reparable parts inventory for a maintenance center under three alternative criteria: (1) maximizing job-completion rate subject to constraint on total holding costs, (2) minimizing total holding costs plus expected job noncompletion costs, and (3) minimizing total holding costs subject to a required minimum job-completion rate. Exact solutions may be obtained using dynamic programming. Approximate solutions, found easily by marginal analysis, have readily computed bounds on possible error. The solution methods for the three formulations are illustrated in a simple example.

Schaefer, M. K.↗

NASA's Design and Development of a Field Goniometer Instrument Using Solid Works

With NASA suffering severe funding cutbacks, engineers at NASA are required to produce state-of-the-art hardware with limited personnel and financial resources. In light of these constraints, the new NASA mandate is to build better, faster and cheaper. In April of 1998, Stennis Space Center's Commercial Remote Sensing Program contracted to the Systems Engineering Division at NASA Ames Research Center to develop a device known as a Field Goniometer. A Field Goniometer is a device that measures bi-directional reflectance of a target, such as vegetation, relative to the sun and an imaging system in an aircraft or spacecraft. The device is able to provide a spectral fingerprint of the surface it is measuring in wavelengths from 350nm-2500nm using a hyperspectral imager. To accomplish this project, several obstacles had to be overcome. First, the design had to be completed in less than four months. Second, due to the complexity of the design, the use of solid modeling was highly desirable but most of the group's solid modelers were assigned to other jobs. Third, the amount of funding available from the customer was one half to one third the funding typically expended for a job of this nature. Our choices for this project were to design with standard 2-D CAD systems currently used in-house or train additional engineers on our existing solids package or purchase a new solid model package. The use of a 2D CAD system was very undesirable due to the complexity of the design. Using our existing solids modeler would have required a learning curve for our engineers that would be incompatible with our schedule. Prior to this project, a member of our design group researched the solid modeling industry and decided to purchase SolidWorks. After examining the product for ease of use, modeling capability, training time required and cost, we decided our highest probability of success would be to design with Solidworks. During the design phase, our fabrication group was able to provide input at the very early stages, which added significant benefit to the final product. Fabrication cost and schedule savings have been realized by having complex part geometries translated directly from the SolidWorks design models to Surfcam and other computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software. This direct model translation capability optimized the fabrication processes. The end result was that we were able to successfully complete the project on time and on budget. Other advantages of using SolidWorks, as cited by the design team, include a rapid negotiation of the initial learning curve, the ability to develop solid model hardware prototypes (used to communicate the design intent to both the customer and the fabricator), and the ability to work as a team collaborating on a large, complex model. These types of tools and efforts represent our response to NASA's challenge to produce higher quality products within shorter design and fabrication times.

Turner, Mark↗

An Execution Service for Grid Computing

This paper describes the design and implementation of the IPG Execution Service that reliably executes complex jobs on a computational grid. Our Execution Service is part of the IPG service architecture whose goal is to support location-independent computing. In such an environment, once n user ports an npplicntion to one or more hardware/software platfrms, the user can describe this environment to the grid the grid can locate instances of this platfrm, configure the platfrm as required for the application, and then execute the application. Our Execution Service runs jobs that set up such environments for applications and executes them. These jobs consist of a set of tasks for executing applications and managing data. The tasks have user-defined starting conditions that allow users to specih complex dependencies including task to execute when tasks fail, afiequent occurrence in a large distributed system, or are cancelled. The execution task provided by our service also configures the application environment exactly as specified by the user and captures the exit code of the application, features that many grid execution services do not support due to dflculties interfacing to local scheduling systems.

Smith, Warren↗

CGSim: A Simulation Framework for Large Scale Distributed Computing Environment

Large-scale distributed computing infrastructures such as the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) require comprehensive simulation tools for evaluating performance, testing new algorithms, and optimizing resource allocation strategies. However, existing simulators suffer from limited scalability, hardwired algorithms, lack of real-time monitoring, and inability to generate datasets suitable for modern machine learning approaches. We present CGSim, a simulation framework for large-scale distributed computing environments that addresses these limitations. Built upon the validated SimGrid simulation framework, CGSim provides high-level abstractions for modeling heterogeneous grid environments while maintaining accuracy and scalability. Key features include a modular plugin mechanism for testing custom workflow scheduling and data movement policies, interactive real-time visualization dashboards, and automatic generation of event-level datasets suitable for AI-assisted performance modeling. We demonstrate CGSim’s capabilities through a comprehensive evaluation using production ATLAS PanDA workloads, showing significant calibration accuracy improvements across WLCG computing sites. Scalability experiments show near-linear scaling for multi-site simulations, with distributed workloads achieving 6 × better performance compared to single-site execution. The framework enables researchers to simulate WLCG-scale infrastructures with hundreds of sites and thousands of concurrent jobs within practical time budget constraints on commodity hardware.

Vatsavai, Sairam Sri [Brookhaven National Laborato↗

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Assessment↗

Design and Operational Evaluation of the Traffic Management Advisor at the Ft. Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center

NASA and the FAA have designed and developed and an automation tool known as the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). The system was operationally evaluated at the Ft. Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). The TMA is a time-based strategic planning tool that provides Traffic Management Coordinators and En Route Air Traffic Controllers the ability to efficiently optimize the capacity of a demand impacted airport. The TMA consists of trajectory prediction, constraint-based runway scheduling, traffic flow visualization and controllers advisories. The TMA was used and operationally evaluated for forty-one rush traffic periods during a one month period in the Summer of 1996. The evaluations included all shifts of air traffic operations as well as periods of inclement weather. Performance data was collected for engineering and human factor analysis and compared with similar operations without the TMA. The engineering data indicates that the operations with the TMA show a one to two minute per aircraft delay reduction during rush periods. The human factor data indicate a perceived reduction in en route controller workload as well as an increase in job satisfaction. Upon completion of the evaluation, the TMA has become part of the normal operations at the Ft. Worth ARTCC.

Swenson, Harry N.↗

GlideinBenchmark: collecting resource information to optimize provisioning

Choosing the right resource can speed up job completion, better utilize the available hardware, and visibly reduce costs, especially when renting computers in the cloud. This was demonstrated in earlier studies on HEPCloud. However, the benchmarking of the resources proved to be a laborious and time-consuming process. This paper presents GlideinBenchmark, a new Web application leveraging the pilot infrastructure of GlideinWMS to benchmark resources, and it shows how to use the data collected and published by GlideinBenchmark to automate the optimal selection of resources. An experiment can select the benchmark or the set of benchmarks that most closely evaluate the performance of its workflows. GlideinBenchmark, with the help of the GlideinWMS Factory, controls the benchmark execution. Finally, a scheduler like HEPCloud's Decision Engine can use the results to optimize resource provisioning.

Mambelli, Marco [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000294892681↗

GlideinBenchmark: collecting resource information to optimize provisioning

Choosing the right resource can speedup jobs completion, better utilize the available hardware and visibly reduce costs, especially when renting computers on the cloud. This was demonstrated in earlier studies on HEPCloud. But the benchmarking of the resources proved to be a laborious and time-consuming process. This paper presents GlideinBenchmark, a new Web application leveraging the pilot infrastructure of GlideinWMS to benchmark resources, and shows how to use the data collected and published by GlideinBenchmark to automate the optimal selection of resources. An experiment can select the benchmark or the set of benchmarks that most closely evaluate the performance of its workflows. With GlideinBenchmark and the help of the GldieinWMS Factory it controls the benchmark execution. Finally, a scheduler like HEPCloud’s Decision Engine can use the results to optimize resource provisioning.

Mambelli, Marco↗

Software engineering methodologies and tools

Over the years many engineering disciplines have developed, including chemical, electronic, etc. Common to all engineering disciplines is the use of rigor, models, metrics, and predefined methodologies. Recently, a new engineering discipline has appeared on the scene, called software engineering. For over thirty years computer software has been developed and the track record has not been good. Software development projects often miss schedules, are over budget, do not give the user what is wanted, and produce defects. One estimate is there are one to three defects per 1000 lines of deployed code. More and more systems are requiring larger and more complex software for support. As this requirement grows, the software development problems grow exponentially. It is believed that software quality can be improved by applying engineering principles. Another compelling reason to bring the engineering disciplines to software development is productivity. It has been estimated that productivity of producing software has only increased one to two percent a year in the last thirty years. Ironically, the computer and its software have contributed significantly to the industry-wide productivity, but computer professionals have done a poor job of using the computer to do their job. Engineering disciplines and methodologies are now emerging supported by software tools that address the problems of software development. This paper addresses some of the current software engineering methodologies as a backdrop for the general evaluation of computer assisted software engineering (CASE) tools from actual installation of and experimentation with some specific tools.

Wilcox, Lawrence M.↗

Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel Annual Report for 1999

This report covers the activities of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) for the calendar year 1999.This was a year of notable achievements and significant frustrations. Both the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) programs were delayed.The Space Shuttle prudently postponed launches after the occurrence of a wiring short during ascent of the STS-93 mission. The ISS construction schedule slipped as a result of the Space Shuttle delays and problems the Russians experienced in readying the Service Module and its launch vehicle. Each of these setbacks was dealt with in a constructive way. The STS-93 short circuit led to detailed wiring inspections and repairs on all four orbiters as well as analysis of other key subsystems for similar types of hidden damage. The ISS launch delays afforded time for further testing, training, development, and contingency planning. The safety consciousness of the NASA and contractor workforces, from hands-on labor to top management, continues high. Nevertheless, workforce issues remain among the most serious safety concerns of the Panel. Cutbacks and reorganizations over the past several years have resulted in problems related to workforce size, critical skills, and the extent of on-the-job experience. These problems have the potential to impact safety as the Space Shuttle launch rate increases to meet the demands of the ISS and its other customers. As with last year's report, these work- force-related issues were considered of sufficient import to place them first in the material that follows. Some of the same issues of concern for the Space Shuttle and ISS arose in a review of the launch vehicle for the Terra mission that the Panel was asked by NASA to undertake. Other areas the Panel was requested to assess included the readiness of the Inertial Upper Stage for the deployment of the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the possible safety impact of electromagnetic effects on the Space Shuttle. The findings and recommendations in this report do not highlight any major, immediate issues that might compromise the safe pursuit of the various NASA programs. They do, however, cover concerns that the Panel believes should be addressed in the interest of maintaining NASA's excellent safety record.The Panel is pleased to note that remedial efforts for some of the findings raised are underway. Given appropriate funding and cooperative efforts among the Administration, the Congress and the various contractors, the Panel is convinced that safety problems can be avoided or solved resulting in lower risk for NASA's human space and aeronautics programs. Section II of this report contains specific findings and recommendations generated by Panel activities during the calendar year 1999. Section III presents more detailed information in support of these findings and recommendations. A current roster of Panel members, consultants, and staff is included as Appendix A. Appendix B contains NASA's response to the findings and recommendations from the 1998 annual report. It has been augmented this year to include brief explanations of why the Panel classified the NASA response as " open,""continuing," or "closed." Appendix C lists the fact-finding activities of the Panel in 1999.

Blomberg, Richard D.↗