Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Inventory Difference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Advances in Landslide Hazard Forecasting: Evaluation of Global and Regional Modeling Approach

A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that exhibit a high potential for landslide activity by combining a calculation of landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale landslide forecasting efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. The evaluation finds that the landslide forecasting may be more feasible at a regional scale. This study draws upon a prior work's recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and forecasting at the regional scale. This case study uses a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America: Guatemala, Honduras, EI Salvador and Nicaragua. A regional susceptibility map is calculated from satellite and surface datasets using a statistical methodology. The susceptibility map is tested with a regional rainfall intensity-duration triggering relationship and results are compared to global algorithm framework for the Hurricane Mitch event. The statistical results suggest that this regional investigation provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment, providing more realistic landslide forecasts for this case study. Evaluation of landslide hazards for this extreme event helps to identify several potential improvements of the algorithm framework, but also highlights several remaining challenges for the algorithm assessment, transferability and performance accuracy. Evaluation challenges include representation errors from comparing susceptibility maps of different spatial resolutions, biases in event-based landslide inventory data, and limited nonlandslide event data for more comprehensive evaluation. Additional factors that may improve algorithm performance accuracy include incorporating additional triggering factors such as tectonic activity, anthropogenic impacts and soil moisture into the algorithm calculation. Despite these limitations, the methodology presented in this regional evaluation is both straightforward to calculate and easy to interpret, making results transferable between regions and allowing findings to be placed within an inter-comparison framework. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment and forecasting.

Kirschbaum, Dalia B.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Modeling Landslide Susceptibility Over Large Regions with Fuzzy Overlay

Landslide susceptibility mapping is most effective if detailed surface and subsurface information can be combined with authoritative landslide catalogs or a deep understanding of local conditions. However, these types of homogeneous input data and catalogs are frequently not available over large areas. In this study, we model landslide susceptibility in Central America and the Caribbean islands by combining three globally available datasets and one regional dataset with fuzzy overlay. This primarily heuristic model provides the flexibility to test a range of different contributing variables and the capability to compare landslide inventories within the model framework that vary greatly in their size, spatiotemporal scope, and collection methods. We create a regional susceptibility map and evaluate its performance using receiver operating characteristics for both continuous and binned susceptibility values. This susceptibility map forms the basis for a near-real-time landslide hazard assessment system that couples susceptibility with rainfall and soil moisture triggers to estimate potential landslide activity at a regional scale. The application of this susceptibility model at the regional scale provides a foundation for transferring the methodology to other geographic areas.

Landslide↗
NASA NTRS1995

DITDOS: A set of design specifications for distributed data inventories

The analysis of space science data often requires researchers to work with many different types of data. For instance, correlative analysis can require data from multiple instruments on a single spacecraft, multiple spacecraft, and ground-based data. Typically, data from each source are available in a different format and have been written on a different type of computer, and so much effort must be spent to read the data and convert it to the computer and format that the researchers use in their analysis. The large and ever-growing amount of data and the large investment by the scientific community in software that require a specific data format make using standard data formats impractical. A format-independent approach to accessing and analyzing disparate data is key to being able to deliver data to a diverse community in a timely fashion. The system in use at the Planetary Plasma Interactions (PPI) node of the NASA Planetary Data System (PDS) is based on the object-oriented Distributed Inventory Tracking and Data Ordering Specification (DITDOS), which describes data inventories in a storage independent way. The specifications have been designed to make it possible to build DITDOS compliant inventories that can exist on portable media such as CD-ROM's. The portable media can be moved within a system, or from system to system, and still be used without modification. Several applications have been developed to work with DITDOS compliant data holdings. One is a windows-based client/server application, which helps guide the user in the selection of data. A user can select a data base, then a data set, then a specific data file, and then either order the data and receive it immediately if it is online or request that it be brought online if it is not. A user can also view data by any of the supported methods. DITDOS makes it possible to use already existing applications for data-specific actions, and this is done whenever possible. Another application is a stand-alone tool to assist in the extraction of data from portable media, such as CD-ROM's. In addition to the applications, there is a set of libraries that can facilitate building new DITDOS compliant applications.

King, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Satellite detection of vegetative damage and alteration caused by pollutants emitted by a zinc smelter

The author has identified the following significant results. Field observations and data collected by low flying aircraft were used to verify the accuracy of maps produced from the satellite data. Although areas of vegetation as small as six acres can accurately be detected, a white pine stand that was severely damaged by sulfur dioxide could not be differentiated from a healthy white pine stand because spectral differences were not large enough. When winter data were used to eliminate interference from herbaceous and deciduous vegetation, the damage was still undetectable. The analysis was able to produce a character map that accurately delineated areas of vegetative alteration due to high zinc levels accumulating in the soil. The map depicted a distinct gradient of less damage and alteration as the distance from the smelter increased. Although the satellite data will probably not be useful for detecting small acreages of damaged vegetation, it is concluded that the data may be very useful as an inventory tool to detect and delineate large vegetative areas possessing differing spectral signatures.

Mcmurtry, G. J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Numerical simulation of a full-loop circulating fluidized bed under different operating conditions

Both experimental and computational studies of the fluidization of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) particles in a small-scale full-loop circulating fluidized bed are conducted. Experimental measurements of pressure drop are taken at different locations along the bed. The solids circulation rate is measured with an advanced Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique. The bed height of the quasi-static region in the standpipe is also measured. Comparative numerical simulations are performed with a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver utilizing a Discrete Element Method (CFD-DEM). This paper reports a detailed and direct comparison between CFD-DEM results and experimental data for realistic gas-solid fluidization in a full-loop circulating fluidized bed system. The comparison reveals good agreement with respect to system component pressure drop and inventory height in the standpipe. In addition, the effect of different drag laws applied within the CFD simulation is examined and compared with experimental results.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mitigating Cyclable Li‐Ion Inventory Loss in Full Cells with Mn‐Rich Disordered Rocksalt Cathodes

Lithium (Li)- and manganese (Mn)-rich disordered rock salt (DRX) materials are promising cathode materials for next-generation Li-ion batteries. Although these cathode materials are Li-ions rich in their pristine state, their incorporation into full cells results in challenges with maintaining Li-ion inventory during cycling. Herein, the degradation mechanisms of DRX materials in different DRX||Graphite full cells are reported. It is found that DRX electrodes contain Li impurities, primarily due to the environmental sensitivity of mechanochemically synthesized DRX materials during sample transfer and storage. In addition, the structural instability of DRX triggers Mn dissolution. Dissolved Mn ions react with exposed Li x C y compounds and induce electrolyte decomposition on the anode, further depleting Li-ion inventory. Control experiments involving the pre-addition of Mn 2+ provide clear evidence of the impact of Mn dissolution on Li-ion inventory. The electrochemical activation process can stabilize DRX, alleviate Mn dissolution and thus mitigate the loss of Li-ion inventory. These mechanistic insights inform the development of chemical pre-lithiation and electrolyte additive strategies to collectively passivate interfaces, mitigate the effects of trace dissolved Mn ions, and preserve Li-ion inventory. Ultimately, the DRX||Graphite full cell achieves highly reversible electrochemical reactions with a high capacity retention. This study fills a research gap in DRX-based full cells and provides insights into degradation mechanisms and optimization strategies for their practical use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detection of local-scale changes in greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments using micrometeorological methods and comparison to a high-resolution inventory

We used the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) flux-variance relationship to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from high-precision mole fraction measurements at 3 instrumented urban communication towers over several years, demonstrating the ability of this method to detect and quantify changes in emissions. Depending on data availability, we used carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements and/or tracer ratios to estimate fluxes at 1 urban site (Site 3) and 1 suburban site (Site 7) in Indianapolis, IN, USA, and 1 urban site (COM) in Los Angeles, CA, USA. We also compared the estimated fluxes of CO 2 from fossil fuel sources (CO 2 ff) at Sites 3 and 7 and the total CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 to 20 m, hourly resolution subdomains of the high-resolution CO 2 emissions inventory, Hestia, for the year 2020, introducing a new way to evaluate emissions inventories at small spatial and temporal scales. Using the flux-variance relationship, we detected and quantified abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 and COM in April 2020, coinciding with the stay-at-home order due to COVID-19 pandemic, as well as abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 in July 2018 coinciding with a highway closure next to the site. The Hestia emissions inventory detected a decrease in emissions in April 2020 at Sites 3 and 7, but this decrease differed in magnitude from those detected in the atmospheric estimates. Seasonal trends in emissions are similar between Hestia and the atmospheric estimates at Site 7. We use differences in seasonal and spatial trends between the flux estimation methods to identify potential sources of uncertainty in both the atmospheric and inventory methods. The results from this study show that the flux-variance estimation method is a useful tool to monitor local-scale emissions and evaluate high-resolution emissions inventories.

Carbon dioxide↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluation of an Interferometric Sensor for In-Space Detection of Gas Leaks

Space mission planning often involves long-term storage of volatile liquids or high-pressure gases. These may include cryogenic fuels and oxidizers, high-pressure gases, and life-support-critical consumables. The risk associated with the storage of fluids and gases in space systems has long been an issue and the ability to retain these fluids is often tied to mission success. A leak in the storage or distribution system can cause many different problems, including a simple, but mission endangering, loss of inventory or, in severe cases, unbalanced thrust loads on a flight vehicle. Cryogenic propellants are especially difficult to store, especially over a long duration. The propellant can boil off and be lost through the insulating walls of the tank or simple thermal cycling of the fittings, valves, and propellant feed lines may unseat seals allowing the fluid to escape. Current NASA missions call for long-duration in-space storage of propellants, oxidizers, and life support supplies. Leaks of a scale detectable through a pressure drop in the storage tank are often catastrophic and have long been the focus of ground-based mitigation efforts where redundant systems are often employed. However, there is presently no technology available for detecting and monitoring low-level, but still mission-endangering, gas leaks in space. Standard in-space gas detection methods either have a very limited pressure range over which they operate effectively or are limited to certain gases. Mass spectrometer systems are able to perform the detection tasks, but their size, mass and use of high voltage, which could potentially lead to an arc that ignites a combustible propellent, severely limit their usefulness in a space system. In this paper, we present results from testing of the light-based interferometric gas monitoring and leak detection sensor shown in Fig. 1. The output of the sensor is an interference fringe pattern that is a function of the gas density, and commensurate index of refraction, in the sample region. Changes in the density of gas cause the interference fringes to move across a photodiode detector, providing a temporal history of the leak. The sensor is fiber coupled and constructed from solid optics, allowing for placement almost anywhere on the spacecraft. It is also advantageous in that it consumes very little power and does not introduce an ignition source. Data are presented demonstrating the capability of the sensor to measure density variations in different gas species. In addition, the transient response of the sensor in vacuum is demonstrated. These data extend and improve upon the results previously presented by the authors in Ref. [1].

Polzin, Kurt A.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Hurricane María tripled stem breaks and doubled tree mortality relative to other major storms

Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify under a warming climate, with uncertain effects on tropical forests. One key challenge to predicting how more intense storms will influence these ecosystems is to attribute impacts specifically to storm meteorology rather than differences in forest characteristics. Here we compare tree damage data collected in the same forest in Puerto Rico after Hurricanes Hugo (1989, category 3), Georges (1998, category 3), and María (2017, category 4). María killed twice as many trees as Hugo, and for all but two species, broke 2- to 12-fold more stems than the other two storms. Species with high density wood were resistant to uprooting, hurricane-induced mortality, and were protected from breakage during Hugo but not María. Tree inventories and a wind exposure model allow us to attribute these differences in impacts to storm meteorology. A better understanding of risk factors associated with tree species susceptibility to severe storms is key to predicting the future of forest ecosystems under climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Designing Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 /LiMn 2 O 4 Cells: Negative-to-Positive Ratio and Electrolyte

Li 4 Ti 5 O12/LiMn2O 4 (LTO/LMO) system is a promising candidate for behind-the-meter storage (BTMS) applications due to its critical-material-free chemistry exhibiting good safety and long lifetime. In this paper we design LTO/LMO cells to mitigate their major degradation mechanism, loss of Li inventory, and improve their long-term cyclability. First, LMO electrodes with different loadings (2.61, 3.29, and 4.26 mAh cm -2 ) are paired with an LTO electrode (3.35 mAh cm -2 ) to create varying negative-to-positive ratios (N/P>1, =1, and <1). Additionally, conventional ethylene carbonate (EC)/ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC) mixture electrolyte and safety enhanced EC-only electrolyte are examined. We show that storing additional Li inventory in the cathode (i.e., using a thicker electrode and having N/P<1) is a convenient method to enhance the capacity retention of LTO/LMO cells, but only if the electrode utilization is not limited by the Li + ion transport. For systems that suffer from limited transport properties, prelithiating the anode will be more effective since LTO (~165 mAh g -1 LTO ) can store the same amount of capacity using less material compared to LMO (~100 mAh g -1 LMO ). In this work, we demonstrate how the electrolyte properties and the electrode thickness of LTO/LMO cells can be designed to enhance their performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conclusions from 3 years of continuous capture plant operation without exchange of the AMP/PZ-based solvent at Niederaussem – insights into solvent degradation management

A many times heard mantra of solvent degradation management in amine-based post combustion capture is “keep the solvent clean” to minimize solvent consumption. It is assumed that the amine losses would decrease by the removal of metals, degradation products, and reactive trace components which are captured from the flue gas, like NO 2 (as potentially driving components of the amine degradation besides dissolved O 2 ). However, this theoretical hypothesis – based on results from laboratory experiments typically generated with fresh amines – disregards the complexity of the solvent matrix, interaction of potential metal catalysts with degradation products and oxidizing agents, and specific chemical requirements which must be fulfilled before a degradation mechanism can proceed. Degradation of the solvent CESAR1 (aqueous solution of 3.0 molar 2-amino-2-methylpropan-1-ol (AMP) and 1.5 molar piperazine (PZ)) is investigated in a unique long-time test campaign (testing time up to now 40 months; 24/7 operation) without replacement of the solvent inventory at the capture pilot plant at the lignite-fired power plant in Niederaussem. Three solvent management strategies with different effect mechanisms are investigated and evaluated: (a) removal of only anionic compounds and trace elements (within 75 days solvent inventory treated two times) and anionic as well as cationic compounds and trace elements (114 days, inventory treated four times) from the solvent by ion exchange, (b) adsorptive removal of trace elements from the solvent by active carbon in 35% of the operating time, and (c) removal of >80% NO 2 by flue gas pretreatment with thiosulfate/sulfite solution (dosing for 2,000 h). The results of the testing program clearly show that “solvent cleanliness” is not a well-defined parameter and that results from laboratory tests, tests without fully representative industrial flue gasses, and short-term testing of monoethanolamine cannot be generalized for other solvents and industrial application. Furthermore, these results showcase that specific degradation management considering solvent, capture plant and flue gas quality is reasonable. Overshooting efforts for solvent management are contra-productive and produce unnecessary waste streams, efficiency losses and costs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Numerical Simulation Comparison of Two Reactor Configurations for Chemical Looping Combustion and Chemical Looping With Oxygen Uncoupling

Chemical looping with oxygen uncoupling (CLOU) is a carbon capture technology that utilizes a metal oxide as an oxygen carrier to selectively separate oxygen from air and release gaseous O 2 into a reactor where fuel, such as coal, is combusted. Previous research has addressed reactor design for CLOU systems, but little direct comparison between different reactor designs has been performed. This study utilizes Barracuda-VR® for comparison of two system configurations, one uses circulating fluidized beds (CFB) for both the air reactor (AR) and fuel reactor (FR) and another uses bubbling fluidized beds for both reactors. Initial validation of experimental and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations was performed to show that basic trends are captured with the CFD code. The CFD simulations were then used to perform comparison of key performance parameters such as solids circulation rate and reactor residence time, pressure profiles in the reactors and loopseals, and particle velocities in different locations of the reactor as functions of total solids inventory and reactor gas flows. Here, using these simulation results, it was determined that the dual CFB system had larger range for solids circulation rate before choked flow was obtained. Both systems had similar particle velocities for the bottom 80% of particle mass, but the bubbling bed (BB) obtained higher particle velocities as compared to the circulating fluidized-bed FR, due to the transport riser. As a system, the results showed that the dual CFB configuration allowed better control over the range of parameters tested.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evolution of Ocean Heat Content Related to ENSO

As the strongest interannual perturbation to the climate system, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates the year-to-year variability of the ocean energy budget. Here we combine ocean observations, reanalyses, and surface flux data with Earth system model simulations to obtain estimates of the different terms affecting the redistribution of energy in the Earth system during ENSO events, including exchanges between ocean and atmosphere and among different ocean basins, and lateral and vertical rearrangements. This comprehensive inventory allows better understanding of the regional and global evolution of ocean heat related to ENSO and provides observational metrics to benchmark performance of climate models. Results confirm that there is a strong negative ocean heat content tendency (OHCT) in the tropical Pacific Ocean during El Niño, mainly through enhanced air–sea heat fluxes Q into the atmosphere driven by high sea surface temperatures. In addition to this diabatic component, there is an adiabatic redistribution of heat both laterally and vertically (0–100 and 100–300 m) in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans that dominates the local OHCT. Heat is also transported and discharged from 20°S–5°N into off-equatorial regions within 5°–20°N during and after El Niño. OHCT and Q changes outside the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate the ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections and changes of ocean heat transport (i.e., Indonesian Throughflow). The tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans warm during El Niño, partly offsetting the tropical Pacific cooling for the tropical oceans as a whole. While there are distinct regional OHCT changes, many compensate each other, resulting in a weak but robust net global ocean cooling during and after El Niño.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Update of the Nuclear Criticality Slide Rule Calculations: Plutonium systems – Delayed Fission Gamma

IRSN (France), LLNL (USA) and ORNL (USA) began a long-term collaboration effort in 2015 to update the nuclear criticality Slide Rule for the emergency response to a nuclear criticality accident. The Slide Rule permits the estimation of neutron and gamma dose rates and integrated doses based upon estimated fission yields, as a function of distance from the fission source, and time after criticality accidents for different critical systems. This paper presents results from the fourth phase of the current update of the Slide Rule project, in which delayed fission-product gamma (DFG) dose rates of unreflected plutonium critical systems were compared by several modern 3D radiation transport codes (MCNP, COG, SCALE), using updated flux-to-dose conversion factors. Dose rates are calculated for fissile material at five moderation ratios (H/Pu), at 1 m above the ground as a function of distance (between 30 cm and 1,200 m) from the external surface of the source to the center of the detector, and for periods between 1 s and 1,000 min after the critical instantaneous event. Further efforts have been devoted to the determination of the delayed gamma source, by comparing the time-dependent energy spectra obtained from several methods. Overall, DFG dose rates calculated by each participant led to consistent results. Extra effort is under way to identify the cause of the remaining differences, by comparing precisely the gamma source, and particularly nuclides inventories.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

SCALE Demonstration for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Analysis

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission non-light-water reactor fuel cycle demonstration project, SCALE 6.3.1 capabilities for radionuclide characterization, criticality, and shielding were demonstrated for scenarios in the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) nuclear fuel cycle. Three postulated accident scenarios were selected for analysis in this work. As a basis for all scenarios, irradiated fuel inventories were generated using SCALE/ORIGAMI. To cover multiple SFR design choices, two different types of SFR fuel, uranium/transuranic-loaded and U-based fuels, were considered. For the first scenario, SCALE/MAVRIC was used to calculate the radiation shielding and dose rates inside and outside of the containment building due to a drop of a spent fuel assembly from the fuel-handling system during unloading inside the containment building. For the second scenario, potential critical configurations in an electrofiner were investigated through criticality calculations with SCALE/CSAS. For the third scenario, the activity of the waste salt from an electrorefiner was evaluated using SCALE/ORIGEN. The dose rate produced by the analyzed SFR assemblies is similar to that produced by a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assembly with a discharge burnup of 50 GWd/MTU, with the same cooling time of 10 days. The criticality analyses suggested that the different electrorefiner configurations have a large margin to criticality. The activity analysis of the electrofiner waste revealed that shielding and cooling may be required for the waste salt that contains transuranics and fission products produced by the electrorefiner because of the high activity of the waste salt. In general, the application of various capabilities in the SCALE code system for SFR fuel inventory generation, criticality, and shielding was successfully demonstrated for the selected scenarios in the SFR nuclear fuel cycle. Additional analyses can be performed to provide more accurate results when more details of the SFR nuclear fuel cycles are available, for example, the dimension of the electrorefiner and the salt compositions during reprocessing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH 4 ) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH 4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32]Tg CH 4 yr -1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13 CH 4 . However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH 4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH 4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13 CH 4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗