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At least 145 records · Page 8

Polar and Non-Polar Layers on Mars: A Single Mechanism for Formation?

The recent discovery of vast quantities of near-subsurface ice in both polar regions of Mars by the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) has presented us with an interesting quandary. On one hand, these deposits, found poleward of 60 deg in both hemispheres, are consistent with thermal models suggesting ice will be best protected in these regions during periods of high obliquity. On the other hand, the current paradigm regarding the placement of these deposits, i.e., diffusive deposition of water vapor, appears to be inconsistent with the large volume mixing ratios (approx. 90%) inferred from the GRS data. This incongruity argues that diffusion alone cannot be the primary mechanism for the creation of these reservoirs, and that an alternate, large-scale process should be considered.

Mischna, M. A.↗

The inference of tropical cyclone dynamics using GOES VISSR/VAS data

The sequence of events observed during tropical cyclone Emily, was suggested as a possible mechanism for cyclogenesis. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) East VISSR/VAS sensors were used. The VISSR visible imagery obtained every 15 minutes was used to define the low tropospheric cyclonic vortex and upper tropospheric horizontal convergence. The VAS water vapor (channels 9 and 10) and carbon dioxide (channels 3 and 4) channels were used to infer upper and middle tropospheric subsidence by monitoring the Adiabatic compressional drying and warming, respectively, occurring within this layer. Evidence of an existing lower tropospheric cyclonic vortex was seen. The satellite derived wind vectors (length of vector is proportional to wind velocity, where the strongest winds were approximately 35 knots) are superimposed on the GOES visible image of tropical storm Emily. Vectors and low level clouds depict the center of the cyclonic vortex immediately south of the large convective cell in the center of the image. Upper tropospheric cloud tracers and rawinsonde reports along the Eastern United States suggest that the southwesterly environmental upper atmospheric flow is converging with the outflow from the convective cell north of the vortex.

Rodgers, E. B.↗

Collisionless shock formation and the prompt acceleration of solar flare ions

The formation mechanisms of collisionless shocks in solar flare plasmas are investigated. The priamry flare energy release is assumed to arise in the coronal portion of a flare loop as many small regions or 'hot spots' where the plasma beta locally exceeds unity. One dimensional hybrid numerical simulations show that the expansion of these 'hot spots' in a direction either perpendicular or oblique to the ambient magnetic field gives rise to collisionless shocks in a few Omega(i), where Omega(i) is the local ion cyclotron frequency. For solar parameters, this is less than 1 second. The local shocks are then subsequently able to accelerate particles to 10 MeV in less than 1 second by a combined drift-diffusive process. The formation mechanism may also give rise to energetic ions of 100 keV in the shock vicinity. The presence of these energetic ions is due either to ion heating or ion beam instabilities and they may act as a seed population for further acceleration. The prompt acceleration of ions inferred from the Gamma Ray Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission can thus be explained by this mechanism.

Cargill, P. J.↗

Solar wind ion composition and charge states

The solar wind, a highly tenuous plasma streaming from the Sun into interplanetary space at supersonic speed, is roughly composed of 95% hydrogen and 5% helium by number. All other, heavy elements contribute less than 0.1% by number and thus are truly test particles Nevertheless, these particles provide valuable information not present in the main components. We first discuss the importance of the heavy ions as tracers for processes in the solar atmosphere. Specifically, their relative abundances are found to be different in the solar wind as compared to the photosphere. This fractionation, which is best organized as a function of the first ionization time (FIT) of the elements under solar surface conditions, provides information on the structure of the chromosphere. where it is imparted on the partially ionized material by an atom-ion separation mechanism. Moreover, the charge states of the heavy ions can be used to infer the coronal temperature, since they are frozen-in near the altitude where the expansion time scale overcomes the ionization/recombination time scales. Next, we review the published values of ion abundances in the solar wind, concentrating on the recent results of the SWICS instrument on Ulysses. About 8 elements and more than 20 charge states can be routinely analyzed by this sensor. There is clear evidence that both the composition and the charge state distribution is significantly different in the fast solar wind from the south polar coronal hole, traversed by Ulysses in 1993/94, as compared to the solar wind normally encountered near the ecliptic plane. The fractionation between low- and high-FIT elements is reduced, and the charge states indicate a lower, more uniform coronal temperature in the hole. Finally, we discuss these results in the framework of existing theoretical models of the chromosphere and corona, attempting to identify differences between the low- and high-latitude regions of the solar atmosphere.

vonSteiger, R.↗

Modeling of Vapor Bubble Growth Under Nucleate Boiling Conditions in Reduced Gravity

A dynamic model is developed to describe the evolution of a vapor bubble growing at a nucleation site on a superheated surface under arbitrary gravity. The bubble is separated from the surface by a thin microlayer and grows due to the evaporation from the microlayer interface. The average thickness of the microlayer increases as the bubble expands along the surface if the evaporation rate is lower than some critical value. The corresponding threshold value of the surface temperature has to be associated with the burn-out crisis. Two main reasons make for bubble separation, which are the buoyancy force and a force caused by the vapor momentum that comes to the bubble with vapor molecules. The latter force is somewhat diminished if condensation takes place at the upper bubble surface in subcooled liquids. The action of the said forces is opposed by inertia of the additional mass of liquid as the bubble center rises above the surface and by inertia of liquid being expelled by the growing bubble in radial directions. An extra pressure force arises due to the liquid inflow into the microlayer with a finite velocity. The last force helps in holding the bubble close to the surface during an initial stage of bubble evolution. Two limiting regimes with distinctly different properties can be singled out, depending on which of the forces that favor bubble detachment dominates. Under conditions of moderately reduced gravity, the situation is much the same as in normal gravity, although the bubble detachment volume increases as gravity diminishes. In microgravity, the buoyancy force is negligible. Then the bubble is capable of staying near the surface for a long time, with intensive evaporation from the microlayer. It suggests a drastic change in the physical mechanism of heat removal as gravity falls below a certain sufficiently low level. Inferences of the model and conclusions pertaining to effects caused on heat transfer processes by changes in bubble hydrodynamics induced by gravity are discussed in connection with experimental evidence, both available in current and in as yet unpublished literature.

Buyevich, Yu A.↗

A Survey of Logic Formalisms to Support Mishap Analysis

Mishap investigations provide important information about adverse events and near miss incidents. They are intended to help avoid any recurrence of previous failures. Over time, they can also yield statistical information about incident frequencies that helps to detect patterns of failure and can validate risk assessments. However, the increasing complexity of many safety critical systems is posing new challenges for mishap analysis. Similarly, the recognition that many failures have complex, systemic causes has helped to widen the scope of many mishap investigations. These two factors have combined to pose new challenges for the analysis of adverse events. A new generation of formal and semi-formal techniques have been proposed to help investigators address these problems. We introduce the term mishap logics to collectively describe these notations that might be applied to support the analysis of mishaps. The proponents of these notations have argued that they can be used to formally prove that certain events created the necessary and sufficient causes for a mishap to occur. These proofs can be used to reduce the bias that is often perceived to effect the interpretation of adverse events. Others have argued that one cannot use logic formalisms to prove causes in the same way that one might prove propositions or theorems. Such mechanisms cannot accurately capture the wealth of inductive, deductive and statistical forms of inference that investigators must use in their analysis of adverse events. This paper provides an overview of these mishap logics. It also identifies several additional classes of logic that might also be used to support mishap analysis.

Johnson, Chris↗

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Logic Formalisms to Support Mishap Analysis

The increasing complexity of many safety critical systems poses new problems for mishap analysis. Techniques developed in the sixties and seventies cannot easily scale-up to analyze incidents involving tightly integrated software and hardware components. Similarly, the realization that many failures have systemic causes has widened the scope of many mishap investigations. Organizations, including NASA and the NTSB, have responded by starting research and training initiatives to ensure that their personnel are well equipped to meet these challenges. One strand of research has identified a range of mathematically based techniques that can be used to reason about the causes of complex, adverse events. The proponents of these techniques have argued that they can be used to formally prove that certain events created the necessary and sufficient causes for a mishap to occur. Mathematical proofs can reduce the bias that is often perceived to effect the interpretation of adverse events. Others have opposed the introduction of these techniques by identifying social and political aspects to incident investigation that cannot easily be reconciled with a logic-based approach. Traditional theorem proving mechanisms cannot accurately capture the wealth of inductive, deductive and statistical forms of inference that investigators routinely use in their analysis of adverse events. This paper summarizes some of the benefits that logics provide, describes their weaknesses, and proposes a number of directions for future research.

Johnson, C. W.↗

ERS-1 and Seasat scatterometer measurements of ocean winds: Model functions and the directional distribution of short waves

Calculation of accurate vector winds from scatterometers requires knowledge of the relationship between backscatter cross-section and the geophysical variable of interest. As the detailed dynamics of wind generation of centimetric waves and radar-sea surface scattering at moderate incidence angles are not well known, empirical scatterometer model functions relating backscatter to winds must be developed. Less well appreciated is the fact that, given an accurate model function and some knowledge of the dominant scattering mechanisms, significant information on the amplitudes and directional distributions of centimetric roughness elements on the sea surface can be inferred. accurate scatterometer model functions can thus be used to investigate wind generation of short waves under realistic conditions. The present investigation involves developing an empirical model function for the C-band (5.3 GHz) ERS-1 scatterometer and comparing Ku-band model functions with the C-band model to infer information on the two-dimensional spectrum of centimetric roughness elements in the ocean. The C-band model function development is based on collocations of global backscatter measurements with operational surface analyses produced by meteorological agencies. Strengths and limitations of the method are discussed, and the resulting model function is validated in part through comparison with the actual distributions of backscatter cross-section triplets. Details of the directional modulation as well as the wind speed sensitivity at C-band are investigated. Analysis of persistent outliers in the data is used to infer the magnitudes of non-wind effects (such as atmospheric stratification, swell, etc.). The ERS-1 C-band instrument and the Seasat Ku-band (14.6 GHz) scatterometer both imaged waves of approximately 3.4 cm wavelength assuming that Bragg scattering is the dominant mechanism. Comparisons of the C-band and Ku-band model functions are used both to test the validity of the postulated Bragg mechanism and to investigate the directional distribution of the imaged waves under a variety of conditions where Bragg scatter is dominant.

Freilich, Michael H.↗

Mesospheric H2O and H2O2 densities inferred from in situ positive ion composition measurement

A model for production and loss of oxonium ions in the high-latitude D-region is developed, based on the observed excess of 34(+) which has been interpreted as H2O2(+). The loss mechanism suggested in the study is the attachment of N2 and/or CO2 in three-body reactions. Furthermore, mesospheric water vapor and H2O2 densities are inferred from measurements of four high-latitude ion compositions, based on the oxonium model. Mixing ratios of hydrogen peroxide of up to two orders of magnitude higher than previous values were obtained. A number of reactions, reaction constants, and a block diagram of the oxonium ion chemistry in the D-region are given.

Kopp, E.↗

6300 A quantum efficiency of the recombination mechanism in the night-time F layer.

Simultaneous airglow and electron content measurements made at Hawaii are used to infer the number of 6300 and 6364 A quanta produced per electron lost in the nighttime F layer of the ionosphere. The equation of continuity of electrons is then solved numerically to obtain the electron density profile, and the amount of quenching is estimated. This leads to the number of excitations of O(super-1 D) per O2(+) recombination (epsilon). We find, for an exospheric temperature of 1100 K, epsilon is equal to 1.1 plus or minus 0.6, in good agreement with Zipf's laboratory measurement at 300 K.

Brown, W. E.↗

Prediction of oxidation performance of reinforced carbon-carbon material for Space Shuttle leading edges

A method was developed for predicting oxidation performance, in an earth atmospheric entry environment, of reinforced carbon-carbon material, coated for oxidation resistance. A model was developed which describes oxidation control mechanisms, and the equations defining these mechanisms were derived. These relations were used to correlate oxidation test data, and to infer pertinent rate constants. Predictions were made of material oxidation performance in a representative entry environment, and the predictions were compared with ground test data. Results indicate that the method can be successfully used for predicting material oxidation performance.

Medford, J. E.↗

The source of Jovian auroral hiss observed by Voyager 1

Observations of auroral hiss obtained from the Voyager 1 encounter with Jupiter have been reanalyzed. The Jovian auroral hiss was observed near the inner boundary of the warm Io torus and has a low-frequency cutoff caused by propagation near the resonance cone. A simple ray tracing procedure using an offset tilted dipole of the Jovian magnetic field is used to determine possible source locations. The results obtained are consistent with two sources located symmetrically with respect to the centrifugal equator along an L shell (L approximately = 5.59) that is coincident with the boundary between the hot and cold regions of the Io torus and is located just inward of the ribbon feature observed from Earth. The distance of the sources from the centrifugal equator is approximately 0.58 +/- 0.01 R(sub J). Based on the similarity to terrestrial auroral hiss, the Jovian is auroral hiss is believed to be generated by beams of low energy (approximately tens to thousands of eV) electrons. The low-frequency cutoff of the auroral hiss suggests that the electrons are accelerated near the inferred source region, possibly by parallel electric fields similar to those existing in the terrestrial auroral regions. A field-aligned current is inferred to exist at L shells just inward of the plasma ribbon. A possible mechanism for driving this current is discussed.

Morgan, D. D.↗

An Assessment of Our Ability to Model the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in Interactive Climate Models

The physics of the upper troposphere is dominated by the different phases of water, while the lower stratosphere is governed by the presence of ozone. The tropopause may be regarded as the layer which separates the regions where stratospheric and tropospheric processes dominate the physics, but it is clearly not a smooth transition level. Modelling this region in comprehensive climate models is complicated, partly because of the constraints inherent in numerical methods (such as the finite resolution used in models) and partly because of our incomplete knowledge of the physical and chemical interactions which occur (such as the phase transitions of water and the composition of aerosols). However, studies of stratospheric impacts on climate change clearly require the tropopause region to be modelled with a high degree of accuracy. This paper will examine how well we can currently model the structure and dynamics of the tropopause region; this includes some comparisons of the simulated atmospheric composition with observational estimates of these species, some studies of discrepancies between forecasts and observations in the Data Assimilation System of the Data Assimilation office, and inferences for sparsely observed quantities. The analysis will focus on meteorological quantities, physical forcing mechanisms, and the transport and interactions of trace species.

Pawson, Steven↗

Qualitative Discovery in Medical Databases

Implication rules have been used in uncertainty reasoning systems to confirm and draw hypotheses or conclusions. However a major bottleneck in developing such systems lies in the elicitation of these rules. This paper empirically examines the performance of evidential inferencing with implication networks generated using a rule induction tool called KAT. KAT utilizes an algorithm for the statistical analysis of empirical case data, and hence reduces the knowledge engineering efforts and biases in subjective implication certainty assignment. The paper describes several experiments in which real-world diagnostic problems were investigated; namely, medical diagnostics. In particular, it attempts to show that: (1) with a limited number of case samples, KAT is capable of inducing implication networks useful for making evidential inferences based on partial observations, and (2) observation driven by a network entropy optimization mechanism is effective in reducing the uncertainty of predicted events.

Maluf, David A.↗

From Remotely-Sensed SIF to Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Service: Part I - Harnessing Theory

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a remotely sensed optical signal emitted during the light reactions of photosynthesis. The past two decades have witnessed an explosion in availability of SIF data at increasingly higher spatial and temporal resolutions, sparking applications in diverse research sectors (e.g., ecology, agriculture, hydrology, climate, and socioeconomics). These applications must deal with complexities caused by tremendous variations in scale and the impacts of interacting and superimposing plant physiology and three-dimensional vegetation structure on the emission and scattering of SIF. At present, these complexities have not been overcome. To advance future research, the two companion reviews aim to (1) develop an analytical framework for inferring terrestrial vegetation structures and function that are tied to SIF emission, (2) synthesize progress and identify challenges in SIF research via the lens of multi-sector applications, and (3) map out actionable solutions to tackle these challenges and offer our vision for research priorities over the next 5–10 years based on the proposed analytical framework. This paper is the first of the two companion reviews, and theory oriented. It introduces a theoretically rigorous yet practically applicable analytical framework. Guided by this framework, we offer theoretical perspectives on three overarching questions: (1) The forward (mechanism) question—How are the dynamics of SIF affected by terrestrial ecosystem structure and function? (2) The inference question: What aspects of terrestrial ecosystem structure, function, and service can be reliably inferred from remotely sensed SIF and how? (3) The innovation question: What innovations are needed to realize the full potential of SIF remote sensing for real-world applications under climate change? The analytical framework elucidates that process complexity must be appreciated in inferring ecosystem structure and function from the observed SIF; this framework can serve as a diagnosis and inference tool for versatile applications across diverse spatial and temporal scales.

carbon fluxes↗

Analyzing spacecraft configurations through specialization and default reasoning

For an intelligent system to describe a real-world situation using as few statements as possible, it is necessary to make inferences based on observed data and to incorporate general knowledge of the reasoning domain into the description. These reasoning processes must reduce several levels of specific descriptions into only those few that most precisely describe the situation. Moreover, the system must be able to generate descriptions in the absence of data, as instructed by certain rules of inference. The deductions applied by the system, then, generate a high-level description from the low-level evidence provided by the real and default data sources. An implementation of these ideas in a real-world situation is described. The application concerns evaluation of Space Shuttle electromechanical system configurations by console operators in the Mission Control Center. A production system provides the reasoning mechanism through which the default assignments and specializations occur. Examples are provided within this domain for each type of inference, and the suitability is discussed of each toward achieving the goal of describing a situation in the fewest statements possible. Finally, several enhancements are suggested that will further increase the intelligence of similar spacecraft monitoring applications.

Barry, Matthew R.↗

Log-Based Recovery in Asynchronous Distributed Systems

A log-based mechanism is described for restoring consistent states to replicated data objects after failures. Preserving a causal form of consistency based on the notion of virtual time is focused upon in this report. Causal consistency has been shown to apply to a variety of applications, including distributed simulation, task decomposition, and mail delivery systems. Several mechanisms have been proposed for implementing causally consistent recovery, most notably those of Strom and Yemini, and Johnson and Zwaenepoel. The mechanism proposed here differs from these in two major respects. First, a roll-forward style of recovery is implemented. A functioning process is never required to roll-back its state in order to achieve consistency with a recovering process. Second, the mechanism does not require any explicit information about the causal dependencies between updates. Instead, all necessary dependency information is inferred from the orders in which updates are logged by the object servers. This basic recovery technique appears to be applicable to forms of consistency other than causal consistency. In particular, it is shown how the recovery technique can be modified to support an atomic form of consistency (grouping consistency). By combining grouping consistency with casual consistency, it may even be possible to implement serializable consistency within this mechanism.

Kane, Kenneth Paul↗