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At least 145 records · Page 8

Data trustworthiness signatures for nuclear reactor dynamics simulation

With the increased reliance on digitization in industrial control systems, the need for effective monitoring techniques has risen dramatically. Specifically, there is now a growing concern about the so-called false data injection (FDI) attacks. These attacks aim to alter the raw sensors’ data to cause malicious outcomes. Any serious FDI algorithm is based on an intimate knowledge of the system and its associated physics models, which renders conventional outlier/anomaly detection techniques almost obsolete in the face of such attacks. Thus, a critical need has emerged to develop a new class of defense methods that are capable of detecting FDI attacks under the assumption that the attacker has a strong familiarity with the system and its physics modeling. This class of defense methods are denoted by model-based defenses which are premised on the assumption that the attacker, while having a good understanding of the system, does not have full privileged access to all proprietary data and historical records of operation. However, (s)he is assumed to be capable of learning system behavior using self-learning techniques during an initial lie-in-wait period. To defend against this scenario, we propose a new model-based randomized window algorithm that searches time-series data for signatures that can serve as classifiers between normal and FDI scenarios. The classifiers are based on the correlations between the dominant degrees of freedom (DOFs) and the less-dominant DOFs (expected to be very sensitive to the system details that are unknown to the attacker). For demonstration, RELAP5 models are employed to calculate representative nuclear reactor behavior during a number of transient scenarios. Finally, falsified data are injected into the RELAP5-simulated behavior, and the proposed signature-identification algorithm is employed to detect the injected data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)

An overview of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long pre-industrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low-top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high-top” (140 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low latitude precipitation and short-wave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation; better El Niño – Southern Oscillation-related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally-based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low- and high-top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1-5.3°C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2’s transient climate response of 1.9-2.0°C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and theyrepresent CESM2’s contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Danabasoglu, Gokhan↗

Linear Response Function Reveals the Most Effective Remote Forcing in Causing September Arctic Sea Ice Melting in CESM

We apply the linear response function method to investigate the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice and its corresponding remote oceanic forcing in climate models. The method is useful in identifying the fundamental, dynamical and causal relationship between the remote forcing and sea ice response. We find that the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice preferentially takes place over the Pacic side of the Arctic and its remote forcing corresponds to a dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly in the tropics with an increase of precipitation over the western and central tropical and subtropical Pacic ocean while a decrease over the Maritime Continent. The tropical precipitation anomaly likely drives a Rossby wave train propagating toward higher latitudes and leads to a ridge anomaly over the Pacic side of the Arctic, resulting in poleward atmospheric heat transport, enhanced downward longwave radiation and thus melting of the sea ice. In addition, a good agreement is found with the leading tropical Arctic teleconnection mode detected in a pre-industrial control simulation, which supports the usefulness and robustness of the linear response function method and the importance of tropical forcing in shaping the sea ice variability.

Wu, Yutian↗

Importance of the Antarctic Slope Current in the Southern Ocean Response to Ice Sheet Melt and Wind Stress Change

Abstract We use two coupled climate models, GFDL‐CM4 and GFDL‐ESM4, to investigate the physical response of the Southern Ocean to changes in surface wind stress, Antarctic meltwater, and the combined forcing of the two in a pre‐industrial control simulation. The meltwater cools the ocean surface in all regions except the Weddell Sea, where the wind stress warms the near‐surface layer. The limited sensitivity of the Weddell Sea surface layer to the meltwater is due to the spatial distribution of the meltwater fluxes, regional bathymetry, and large‐scale circulation patterns. The meltwater forcing dominates the Antarctic shelf response and the models yield strikingly different responses along West Antarctica. The disagreement is attributable to the mean‐state representation and meltwater‐driven acceleration of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC). In CM4, the meltwater is efficiently trapped on the shelf by a well resolved, strong, and accelerating ASC which isolates the West Antarctic shelf from warm offshore waters, leading to strong subsurface cooling. In ESM4, a weaker and diffuse ASC allows more meltwater to escape to the open ocean, the West Antarctic shelf does not become isolated, and instead strong subsurface warming occurs. The CM4 results suggest a possible negative feedback mechanism that acts to limit future melting, while the ESM4 results suggest a possible positive feedback mechanism that acts to accelerate melt. Our results demonstrate the strong influence the ASC has on governing changes along the shelf, highlighting the importance of coupling interactive ice sheet models to ocean models that can resolve these dynamical processes.

Beadling, R. L.↗

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Relative Importance of the MJO and ENSO to North Pacific Subseasonal Predictability

Abstract Here we explore the relative contribution of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to midlatitude subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied to pre‐industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows. Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important. However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states, offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO teleconnections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bering Strait Ocean Heat Transport Drives Decadal Arctic Variability in a High‐Resolution Climate Model

Abstract We investigate the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in driving the decadal variability of the Arctic climate by analyzing the pre‐industrial control simulation of a high‐resolution climate model. While the OHT variability at 65°N is greater in the Atlantic, we find that the decadal variability of Arctic‐wide surface temperature and sea ice area is much better correlated with Bering Strait OHT than Atlantic OHT. In particular, decadal Bering Strait OHT variability causes significant changes in local sea ice cover and air‐sea heat fluxes, which are amplified by shortwave feedbacks. These heat flux anomalies are regionally balanced by longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, without compensation by atmospheric heat transport (Bjerknes compensation). The sensitivity of the Arctic to changes in OHT may thus rely on an accurate representation of the heat transport through the Bering Strait, which is difficult to resolve in coarse‐resolution ocean models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AMOC Variability in Climate Models and Its Dependence on the Mean State

Abstract Understanding internal variability of the climate system is critical when isolating internal and anthropogenically forced signals. Here, we investigate the modes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) variability using perturbation experiments with the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace's (IPSL) coupled model and compare them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) pre‐industrial control simulations. We identify two characteristic modes of variability—decadal‐to‐multidecadal ( DMD var ) and centennial ( CEN var ). The former is driven largely by temperature anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic, while the latter is driven by salinity in the western subpolar North Atlantic. The amplitude of each mode scales linearly with the mean AMOC strength in the IPSL experiments. The DMD var amplitude correlates well with the AMOC mean strength across CMIP6 models, while the CEN var mode does not. These findings suggest that the strength of DMD var depends robustly on the North Atlantic mean state, while the CEN var mode may be model‐dependent.

Ferster, Brady S. [LOCEAN‐IPSL Sorbonne Université↗

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 2. Overview of the Coupled System

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3) represents the latest advancement in Earth system modeling developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Building upon previous versions, E3SMv3 introduces significant updates across its coupled components to enhance capability and improve fidelity. The atmosphere component incorporates advancements in chemistry, aerosol-cloud interactions, convection, and microphysics. The ocean features a new time-stepping scheme and a higher-resolution unstructured mesh with sub-ice-shelf cavities, while the sea ice model integrates advanced snow and ice physics for more realistic cryospheric simulations. The land model introduces prognostic vegetation dynamics and a new sub-grid topographic treatment of solar radiation. A new tri-grid configuration harmonizes the horizontal grids of the land and river components for improved process coupling. It is enabled by a new non-linear remapping between the atmosphere and land. E3SMv3 underwent extensive testing through a comprehensive simulation campaign, including pre-industrial control, idealized CO 2 experiments, and historical simulations spanning 1850–2024. The model demonstrates significant improvements in simulating the evolution of the historical surface temperature, particularly addressing the “pothole cooling” bias in earlier versions. Reduced aerosol-related forcing contributes to more realistic radiative forcing and better alignment with the observational record. Ocean heat content (OHC) and sea ice trends are also improved as a result.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effects of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gases on twentieth century Sahel precipitation

Abstract There is little scientific consensus on the importance of external climate forcings—including anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic aerosols, and greenhouse gases (GHG)—relative to each other and to internal variability in dictating past and future Sahel rainfall. We address this query by relating a 3-tiered multi-model mean (MMM) over the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 “twentieth century” and pre-Industrial control simulations to observations. The comparison of single-forcing and historical simulations highlights the importance of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols over GHG in generating forced Sahel rainfall variability in models. However, the forced MMM only accounts for a small fraction of observed variance. A residual consistency test shows that simulated internal variability cannot explain the residual observed multidecadal variability, and points to model deficiency in simulating multidecadal variability in the forced response, internal variability, or both.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-decadal variation of ENSO forecast skill since the late 1800s

Diagnosing El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability within operational forecast models is hindered by computational expense and the need for initialization with three-dimensional fields generated by global data assimilation. We instead examine multi-year ENSO predictability since the late 1800s using the model-analog technique, which has neither limitation. We first draw global coupled model states from pre-industrial control simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, that are chosen to initially match observed monthly sea surface temperature and height anomalies in the Tropics. Their subsequent 36-month model evolution are the hindcasts, whose 20th century ENSO skill is comparable to twice-yearly hindcasts generated by a state-of-the-art European operational forecasting system. Despite the so-called spring predictability barrier, present throughout the record, there is substantial second-year ENSO skill, especially after 1960. Overall, ENSO exhibited notably high values of both amplitude and skill towards the end of the 19th century, and again in recent decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations

Abstract Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO). Here, we use observational data to demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in pantropical ocean temperature gradients lead to variations of an SST-based proxy of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largest contribution to this temperature gradient-AMOCconnection comes from gradients between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. TherTIOindex yields the strongest connection of this tropical temperature gradient to theAMOC. Focusing on the internally generated signal in three observational products reveals that an SST-basedAMOCproxy index has closely followed low-frequency changes ofrTIOtemperature with about 26-year lag since 1870. Analyzing the pre-industrial control simulations of 44 CMIP6 climate models shows that theAMOCproxy index lags simulated mid-latitudeAMOCvariations by 4 ± 4 years. These model simulations reveal the mechanism connectingAMOCvariations to pantropical ocean temperature gradients at a 27 ± 2 years lag, matching the observed time lag in 28 out of the 44 analyzed models. rTIO temperature changes affect the North Atlantic climate through atmospheric planetary waves, impacting temperature and salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic, which modifies deep convection and ultimately the AMOC. Through this mechanism, observed internalrTIOvariations can serve as a multi-decadal precursor ofAMOCchanges with important implications forAMOCdynamics and predictability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

EPICS for small-scale laboratories with Python soft IOCs

While the Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System (EPICS) is widely used at large laboratories for slow controls and instrumentation, the deployment of a full EPICS installation can be difficult, with a steep learning curve to new users. Taking advantage of the pythonSoftIOC module, we developed an EPICS slow controls implementation for Jefferson Lab's Hall B cryotarget written entirely in Python and based on software IOCs that communicate with instruments over Ethernet. Here, this system ran successfully, interfacing with Jefferson Lab's full EPICS network, and we offer it as an example of the capabilities of pythonSoftIOC to build lightweight, yet robust and flexible instrumentation platforms that would be easily adapted for use at a small-scale laboratory. University groups can use these examples to build complete slow controls systems, from device communication to data archiving and display, using open-source, mature EPICS tools and student-friendly Python as an alternative to expensive and proprietary systems such as LabVIEW.

Computing↗

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains↗

Assessment of the Distributed Ledger Technology for Energy Sector Industrial and Operational Applications Using the MITRE ATT&CK® ICS Matrix

In recent times, Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) has gained significant attention for its potential application in the energy sector. Utilizing blockchain and DLT has demonstrated the ability to enhance the resilience of the electric infrastructure, which will support a more flexible infrastructure and advance grid modernization. However, the deployment of these technologies increases the overall attack surface. The MITRE ATT&CK® matrices have been developed to document an adversary’s tactics and techniques based on real-world observations. The MITRE ATT&CK® matrices provide a common taxonomy for offense and defense and have become a valuable conceptual tool across multiple cybersecurity disciplines for conveying threat intelligence, performing testing through red teaming or adversary emulation, and enhancing network and system defenses against intrusions. The MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) matrix was created to provide knowledge about adversary behavior in the ICS technology domain. This study analyzes the relevance of various tactics and techniques across a seven-layer DLT engineering and cybersecurity stack, known as the DLT stack, designed by the Cybersecurity Taskforce under IEEE P2418.5 - Standard for Blockchain in Energy working group sponsored by Power and Energy Systems - Smart Buildings, Loads and Customer Systems (PES/SBLC) Technical Committee. Additionally, this paper identifies specific mitigation strategies tailored to the energy ICS environment

42 ENGINEERING↗

Feature Engineering and Ensemble Methods for Imbalanced ICS Intrusion Detection: Pipeline Audit and Constrained Evaluation

Industries are becoming increasingly connected and are more vulnerable to cyberattacks due to the widened attack surface. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are among the most critical sectors that malicious actors can target, as such attacks can cause significant operational disruption and physical damage. It is imperative to detect such attacks as early as possible. This paper evaluates constraint-conditioned optimistic performance estimates for traditional ML models in ICS intrusion detection (i.e., estimates obtained under contiguous, non-shuffled temporal evaluation without test-set alteration, but with pre-split feature engineering that may introduce temporal leakage, due to dataset constraints). Our findings are threefold. First, we quantify how iterative feature engineering affects tree-based ensemble performance and examine how pipeline decisions (split strategy, sampling scope, and cleaning policy) can inflate or reduce reported IDS results under constraint-bound evaluation. Second, we compare intrinsic class-imbalance handling across ensemble models. Third, under our current pipeline constraints (including pre-split feature engineering), CatBoost achieves the best performance on Water Storage Tank (accuracy: 0.9831, class-1 F1: 0.9682), while Light- GBM achieves the best performance on Gas Pipeline (accuracy: 0.9618, class-1 F1: 0.9086).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Comprehensive Approach towards Multi-Objective EMI Filter Design Optimization in High-Frequency SiC-Based Motor Drives

With rapid penetration of high-frequency, highdensity power electronics into the industry, controlling the system generated EMI becomes one of the major design challenges. Designing practical optimized EMI filters require simultaneous consideration of multiple aspects - including electromagnetic couplings, magnetic materials, practical component parasitics and their impacts at high-frequencies, and also the overall manufacturing costs. The multi-dimensional nature of the problem often results in overcompensated designs that hurt the system efficiency and power density. This paper focuses on a comprehensive design platform (developed in MATLAB) towards designing high-density, optimized, highly efficient EMI filters by analyzing the generated noise spectrum and evaluating a vast array of potential solutions before outputting an optimized filter solution. The proposed tool includes database-based component selection, optimal topology selection, multistage filter design, overall optimization for volume, mass, cost and total loss. The proposed filter has been thoroughly evaluated in a PSIM simulation environment emulating the hardware in CRD300DA12EXM3, a 300kW three-phase inverter from Wolfspeed with an RL load representing a motor drive application. Furthermore, a 20kHz switching frequency is chosen and impacts of the motor high-frequency characteristics on the generated EMI noise spectrum of the overall system have been analyzed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Impact of Time-Aware Design Choices in ICS Anomaly Detection

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and na¨ıve imputation— prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensordecomposition– based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗