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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Power Grid Behavioral Patterns and Risks of Generalization in Applied Machine Learning

Recent years have seen a rich literature of data-driven approaches designed for power grid applications. However, insufficient consideration of domain knowledge can impose a high risk to the practicality of the methods. Specifically, ignoring the grid-specific spatiotemporal patterns (in load, generation, and topology, etc.) can lead to outputting infeasible, unrealizable, or completely meaningless predictions on new inputs. To address this concern, this paper investigates real-world operational data to provide insights into power grid behavioral patterns, including the time-varying topology, load, and generation, as well as the spatial differences (in peak hours, diverse styles) between individual loads and generations. Then based on these observations, we evaluate the generalization risks in some existing ML works caused by ignoring these grid-specific patterns in model design and training.

Li, Shimiao↗
DOE OSTI2024

AE33 Aethalometer Records at RMBL [AMF2] from April 2022 to October 2023

The dataset presents atmospheric mass loadings of black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC), during the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign that took place from 2021 – 2023 in Gothic, CO. A Magee Scientific aethalometer (model AE33) was deployed at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, 200 m north of AMF2 to monitor mass loadings of optically absorbing aerosols. The instrument inlet was equipped with a BGI SCC 1.829 ambient cyclone with a particle cutoff of 2.5 μm and placed 5 m above ground level. The dataset reports hour-resolved BC mass loadings at 370, 470, 520, 590, 660, 880, and 950 (BC370, BC470, BC 520, BC590, BC660, BC880, BC950 in ng/m3) reported by the instrument built-in algorithm, which calculates mass loadings from the rate of change of the attenuation of light transmitted through the aerosol-laden filter. BC880 is the operationally defined reference of the BC concentration. Hour-resolved absorbance at each wavelength were calculated from their respective mass absorption cross-section in inverse megameters (Mm-1). The absorption Angstrom exponent (AAE) for BrC and BC were calculated for each hour. BrC AAE (AAE_BrC) was calculated from the slope of Log(wavelength) versus Log(absorbance) based on the measurements at 370, 470, and 520 nm. BC AAE (AAE_BrC) was calculated from the slope of Log(wavelength) versus Log(absorbance) based on the measurements at 590, 660, 880, and 950 nm. The aethalometer record spans time periods of 4/5/2022 – 10/3/2022 and 12/8/2022 – 10/9/2023. The ambient CO2 concentration recorded by a Vaisala CARBOCAP carbon dioxide probe GMP343 is also reported in ppm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Continuous-time Flexibility Scheduling and Pricing in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Large-scale integration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RES) is calling for additional flexibility resources as well as more advanced modeling and optimization techniques to account for the increasing uncertainty and variability in power systems operation. As the RES integration gains momentum, the magnitude and frequency of their variations increase, which may trigger ramping scarcity events in real-time power systems operation. This necessitates revisiting the present definition of power systems flexibility and reserve services to reflect their robustness and adequacy towards sub-interval variations of the load and RES, as well as adjusting the operation models to accommodate the new reserve services. This project took a fundamental approach and aimed at developing continuous-time scheduling and pricing model that accurately models the continuous-time variations of load and RES and efficiently deploys the ramping capability of flexible resources to compensate the sources of variability and uncertainty in the market. In this regard, this project pursued the following goals: Developing stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models for scheduling of energy storage (ES) systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing the theory and practices of continuous-time locational marginal pricing for valuating energy storage systems and flexible loads in wholesale energy markets; Developing function space solution approach to convert the proposed stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time optimization models into tractable mixed-integer linear optimization models; and Defining flexibility reserve as a new type of reserve in markets that would enable ultimate participation of energy storage devices in provision of services to compensate the variability and uncertainty of RES in electricity markets. This project successfully completed all five major tasks defined in the SOPO, and produced 8 high-impact journal papers, 6 conference papers, 3 published U.S. patents, and one web-based software for continuous-time operation optimization of power systems. The application of the proposed flexibility reserve and the stochastic multi-fidelity continuous-time operation scheduling models would modify the forward commitment and schedule of generating units, ES devices and flexible loads, and would line up the resources in such a way that the composition of available resources is better prepared to respond to the sub-hourly variations of the load and renewable resources in real-time operation. Therefore, this project paves the way to sustainable, reliable, and economic integration of renewable energy resources in power system, supporting the progress towards reaching the national targets on energy independence. Even if the proposed models offers a radically different point of view as compared to existing models, it does not alter fundamentally the architecture of power systems operations, nor the complexity of the scheduling problem, so the integration of this project in power systems is extremely practical.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting for a Residential Household in Alaska

Accurate short-term load forecasting at a fine scale is essential for demand response programs, peak shaving, and load-shedding strategies [1]. While traditionally, only aggregate short-term consumption data was available, advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) now provides data at the individual consumer level [1]. There is increasing interest in utilizing this data for short-term load forecasting (from an hour to a few days) to optimize grid operations. Electricity consumption in individual households is highly influenced by residents’ personal behaviors [2]. As a result, unlike aggregate loads, electrical power usage in single households often shows significant volatility, making meter-level load forecasting for individual users particularly challenging [3], [4]. Deep learning methods, with their strong ability to model nonlinear data, have become popular for improving the accuracy of household electricity consumption forecasting [4]. Notably, the Long ShortTerm Memory (LSTM) has attracted significant attention [5], [6].

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Optical Performance Impact of Tracking Error in an Operational Concentrated Solar Power Plant Using Monte Carlo Ray-Tracing Simulation

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) provides firm and dispatchable electricity due to its thermal storage and hybridization capabilities, which supports the decarbonization of our energy supply. Of the various CSP technologies, parabolic trough collectors are the most mature, with over 500 MW operating worldwide. The optical performance of parabolic trough systems is sensitive to tracking error, which is defined as the angular offset of a collector away from the sun position in the transversal plane. Tracking error commonly occurs due to non-continuous adjustment of the trough angle to point toward the sun, but other factors such as gravity, heating, and wind loading can also contribute to tracking error. Researchers have explored the impact of tracking error on optical performance both numerically and experimentally, but existing studies do not include measurements from operational utility-scale power plants. Tilt angle measurements of parabolic troughs at operational utility-scale power plants illustrate spatial variations in optical performance and include various sources of tracking error such as gravity, heating, and wind loading. To fully characterize wind driven loads on parabolic troughs, we are conducting a long-term field measurement campaign at the Nevada Solar One CSP plant located in Boulder City, NV, which has a nominal capacity of 72 MW and 0.5 hours of full-load storage. We record load measurements on four outer trough rows, collecting support structure bending moments, drive torque moments, dynamic accelerations of the spaceframe, mirror displacement, and tilt angles. Using the tilt measurements acquired at 20 Hz frequency, we calculate the deviation between the nominal sun position and the tracker angle. Using a Monte-Carlo ray-tracing simulation software, we assess the impact of the tracker angle deviation on optical performance throughout the diurnal cycle at various spatial locations within the CSP plant. In our view, this first-of-a-kind study will provide important guidance for future trough designs that reduce the impact of various sources of tracking error on performance.

concentrating solar power↗
DOE OSTI2022

Field Study of Grid-connected Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Southeast U.S.: The Next Right Thing

The integration of grid-connected functionality and advanced control algorithms into heat pump water heaters (HPWH) offers the capability to shift load with minimal customer impact. This capability provides a flexible grid resource to utilities, while the increased energy efficiency of HPWHs offers customers a lower electric bill. The combined utility/customer value from grid-connected HPWHs is compelling in the Southeast U.S. where residential electric water heating is prevalent and utility load management is common. This paper presents the results of a HPWH load shifting study conducted in Central Florida using the CTA-2045 standard. Building upon previous research in the Pacific Northwest, this study consisted of approximately 45 occupied homes equipped with HPWHs undergoing load shifting strategies weekly for over a year. Curtailment durations ranged from three to five hours in the morning, and four to five hours in the evening to coincide with high-value periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. During the morning and afternoon, a one- or two-hour load-up event preceded curtailment. Baseline data were collected across varied Florida weather in which no load shifting events were implemented. Results from traditional load shifting strategies were analyzed across seasons and used to devise unique load shifting approaches to increase renewable energy use during periods of high solar energy generation. Regional impacts are forecasted for large-scale implementation of strategies. Lessons learned and recommendations are also provided for how utilities, manufacturers, and regional planners can maximize load shifting benefits from grid-connected HPWHs.

Heat pump water heaters, residential building, loa↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CDKN1A/P21’S Role in Osteoprogenitor Fate Regulation in Response to Mechanical Loading: A Single Cell Resolution Investigation

Forces generated by gravity in load-bearing tissues such as bone marrow promote stem cell-based tissue-regenerative processes by increasing proliferation and differentiation of tissue progenitors. Conversely, in microgravity, mouse bone marrow mesenchymal and hematopoietic precursors down-regulate differentiation markers and up-regulate stemness maintenance genes. During microgravity, these transcriptomic changes are associated with Cdkn1a overexpression in osteoprogenitors, and further the homozygous deletion of the CDKN1a gene in the mouse model results in elevated stem-cell based regeneration of severed digits and ear-hole punches. In this work we sought to test the hypothesis that gravity mechanotransduction regulates mesenchymal stem cell derived osteoprogenitor based osteogenesis by modulating proliferation and differentiation fates at specific cell cycle stages via a p21/CDKN1a-regulated mechanism.. To test our hypothesis, we isolated primary mouse bone marrow osteoprogenitors from Cdkn1a-/- (null) or wildtype mice, cultured the cells for 7-days unloaded in osteogenic differentiation media, to allow commitment of the adherent cell population, and subsequently, cultured an additional 48-hours under cyclic stretch or static control loading conditions. After 48-hours of dynamic mechanical loading, we used a 10X Genomics Chromium/Single Cell controller to generate bar-coded single cell Illumina libraries and sequenced expressomes for 6,000 static control and 6,000 cyclic stretch cells for each genotype. Stage-specific single cell analyses show Cdkn1a-/- osteogenic cultures are more differentiated with fewer progenitors, and that cyclic stretch further promotes the conversion of progenitors to osteoblasts in both wildtype and Cdkn1a-/- backgrounds. The proportion of late mineralizing osteoblasts doubled in Cdkn1a-/- cultures, but is not affected by load. Finally, single cell expression of Cdkn1a, in the wildtype cells, is most strongly suppressed by cyclic stretch both in early and late osteoblasts, and minimally in the progenitor population. Collectively, our results support the hypothesis that Cdkn1a constitutively plays a mechano-reversible anti-proliferative role during stem cell-based bone tissue regeneration, and suggests a new molecular target to counter regenerative deficits caused by disuse.

Eduardo Almeida↗
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling ARRM Xenon Tank Pressurization Using 1D Thermodynamic and Heat Transfer Equations

As a first step in understanding what ground support equipment (GSE) is required to provide external cooling during the loading of 5,000 kg of xenon into 4 aluminum lined composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs), a modeling analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel. The goals of the analysis were to predict xenon temperature and pressure throughout loading at the launch facility, estimate the time required to load one tank, and to get an early estimate of what provisions for cooling xenon might be needed while the tanks are being filled. The model uses the governing thermodynamic and heat transfer equations to achieve these goals. Results indicate that a single tank can be loaded in about 15 hours with reasonable external coolant requirements. The model developed in this study was successfully validated against flight and test data. The first data set is from the Dawn mission which also utilizes solar electric propulsion with xenon propellant, and the second is test data from the rapid loading of a hydrogen cylindrical COPV. The main benefit of this type of model is that the governing physical equations using bulk fluid solid temperatures can provide a quick and accurate estimate of the state of the propellant throughout loading which is much cheaper in terms of computational time and licensing costs than a Computation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis while capturing the majority of the thermodynamics and heat transfer.

Xenon storage↗
NASA NTRS2017

Modeling Xenon Tank Pressurization using One-Dimensional Thermodynamic and Heat Transfer Equations

As a first step in understanding what ground support equipment (GSE) is required to provide external cooling during the loading of 5,000 kg of xenon into 4 aluminum lined composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs), a modeling analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel. The goals of the analysis were to predict xenon temperature and pressure throughout loading at the launch facility, estimate the time required to load one tank, and to get an early estimate of what provisions for cooling xenon might be needed while the tanks are being filled. The model uses the governing thermodynamic and heat transfer equations to achieve these goals. Results indicate that a single tank can be loaded in about 15 hours with reasonable external coolant requirements. The model developed in this study was successfully validated against flight and test data. The first data set is from the Dawn mission which also utilizes solar electric propulsion with xenon propellant, and the second is test data from the rapid loading of a hydrogen cylindrical COPV. The main benefit of this type of model is that the governing physical equations using bulk fluid solid temperatures can provide a quick and accurate estimate of the state of the propellant throughout loading which is much cheaper in terms of computational time and licensing costs than a Computation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis while capturing the majority of the thermodynamics and heat transfer.

Thermodynamic tank modeling↗
NASA NTRS2015

Testing of a Helium Loop Heat Pipe for Large Area Cryocooling

Future NASA space telescopes and exploration missions require cryocooling of large areas such as optics, detector arrays, and cryogenic propellant tanks. One device that can potentially be used to provide closed-loop cryocooling is the cryogenic loop heat pipe (CLHP). A CLHP has many advantages over other devices in terms of reduced mass, reduced vibration, high reliability, and long life. A helium CLHP has been tested extensively in a thermal vacuum chamber using a cryocooler as the heat sink to characterize its transient and steady performance and verify its ability to cool large areas or components in the 3K temperature range. A copper plate with attached electrical heters was used to simulate the heat source, and heat was collected by the CLHP evaporator and transferred to the cryocooler for ultimate heat rejection. The helium CLHP thermal performance test included cool-down from the ambient temperature, startup, capillary limit, heat removal capability, rapid power changes, and long duration steady state operation. The helium CLHP demonstrated robust operation under steady state and transient conditions. The loop could be cooled from the ambient temperature to subcritical temperatures very effectively, and could start successfully without pre-conditioning by simply applying power to both the capillary pump and the evaporator plate. It could adapt to rapid changes in the heat load, and reach a new steady state very quickly. Heat removal between 10mW and 140mW was demonstrated, yielding a power turn down ratio of 14. When the CLHP capillary limit was exceeded, the loop could resume its normal function by reducing the power to the capillary pump. Steady state operations up to 17 hours at several heat loads were demonstrated. The ability of the helium CLHP to cool large areas was therefore successfully verified.

Crycooling↗
NASA NTRS2016

Testing of a Helium Loop Heat Pipe for Large Area Cryocooling

Future NASA space telescopes and exploration missions require cryocooling of large areas such as optics, detector arrays, and cryogenic propellant tanks. One device that can potentially be used to provide closed-loop cryocooling is the cryogenic loop heat pipe (CLHP). A CLHP has many advantages over other devices in terms of reduced mass, reduced vibration, high reliability, and long life. A helium CLHP has been tested extensively in a thermal vacuum chamber using a cryocooler as the heat sink to characterize its transient and steady performance and verify its ability to cool large areas or components in the 3K temperature range. A copper plate with attached electrical heaters was used to simulate the heat source, and heat was collected by the CLHP evaporator and transferred to the cryocooler for ultimate heat rejection. The helium CLHP thermal performance test included cool-down from the ambient temperature, startup, capillary limit, heat removal capability, rapid power changes, and long duration steady state operation. The helium CLHP demonstrated robust operation under steady state and transient conditions. The loop could be cooled from the ambient temperature to subcritical temperatures very effectively, and could start successfully without pre-conditioning by simply applying power to both the capillary pump and the evaporator plate. It could adapt to rapid changes in the heat load, and reach a new steady state very quickly. Heat removal between 10mW and 140mW was demonstrated, yielding a power turn down ratio of 14. When the CLHP capillary limit was exceeded, the loop could resume its normal function by reducing the power to the capillary pump. Steady state operations up to 17 hours at several heat loads were demonstrated. The ability of the helium CLHP to cool large areas was therefore successfully verified.

cryocooling↗
NASA NTRS2016

Thermal Vacuum Testing of a Helium Loop Heat Pipe for Large Area Cryocooling

Future NASA space telescopes and exploration missions require cryocooling of large areas such as optics, detector arrays, and cryogenic propellant tanks. One device that can potentially be used to provide closed-loop cryocooling is the cryogenic loop heat pipe (CLHP). A CLHP has many advantages over other devices in terms of reduced mass, reduced vibration, high reliability, and long life. A helium CLHP has been tested extensively in a thermal vacuum chamber using a cryocooler as the heat sink to characterize its transient and steady performance and to verify its ability to cool large areas or components in the 3 degrees Kelvin temperature range. The helium CLHP thermal performance test included cool-down from the ambient temperature, startup, capillary limit, heat removal capability, rapid power changes, and long duration steady state operation. The helium CLHP demonstrated robust operation under steady state and transient conditions. The loop could be cooled from the ambient temperature to subcritical temperatures very effectively, and could start successfully by simply applying power to both the capillary pump and the evaporator plate without pre-conditioning. It could adapt to a rapid heat load change and quickly reach a new steady state. Heat removal between 10 megawatts and 140 megawatts was demonstrated, yielding a power turn down ratio of 14. When the CLHP capillary limit was exceeded, the loop could resume its normal function by reducing the power to the capillary pump. Steady state operations up to 17 hours at several heat loads were demonstrated. The ability of the helium CLHP to cool large areas was therefore successfully verified.

Thermal Control Systems↗
NASA NTRS1985

Long-life high performance fuel cell program

A multihundred kilowatt Regenerative Fuel Cell for use in a space station is envisioned. Three 0.508 sq ft (471.9 cm) active area multicell stacks were assembled and endurance tested. The long term performance stability of the platinum on carbon catalyst configuration suitability of the lightweight graphite electrolyte reservoir plate, the stability of the free standing butyl bonded potassium titanate matrix structure, and the long life potential of a hybrid polysulfone cell edge frame construction were demonstrated. A 18,000 hour demonstration test of multicell stack to a continuous cyclical load profile was conducted. A total of 12,000 cycles was completed, confirming the ability of the alkaline fuel cell to operate to a load profile simulating Regenerative Fuel Cell operation. An orbiter production hydrogen recirculation pump employed in support of the cyclical load profile test completed 13,000 hours of maintenance free operation. Laboratory endurance tests demonstrated the suitability of the butyl bonded potassium matrix, perforated nickel foil electrode substrates, and carbon ribbed substrate anode for use in the alkaline fuel cell. Corrosion testing of materials at 250 F (121.1 C) in 42% wgt. potassium identified ceria, zirconia, strontium titanate, strontium zirconate and lithium cobaltate as candidate matrix materials.

Martin, R. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy characteristics of multi-chiller load distribution algorithms in a large office building

Here, this study evaluates the energy efficiency of multi-chiller systems in large office buildings, focusing on their optimization across various climate zones as defined by ASHRAE. Using EnergyPlus for simulations, the research examines five different load distribution algorithms in multi-chiller systems that range from one to ten chillers, aiming to understand their effectiveness in 15 distinct climate zones. The primary objectives of the study include identifying the energy efficiency of multi-chiller systems in each climate zone, determining the appropriate number of chillers for each zone, and evaluating the performance of the load distribution algorithms. Based on the U.S. Department of Energy’s commercial building model, the results suggest that multi-chiller systems can significantly reduce cooling energy consumption in various climates. Among the algorithms evaluated, the Sequential Uniform Part Load Ratio (SUPLR) algorithm demonstrates notable efficiency, especially in the 4A climate zone (Baltimore), where it achieves substantial energy savings. Applying the SUPLR algorithm in a multi-chiller setup with four chillers in this zone leads to an estimated 24.5 % reduction in energy usage, equivalent to 183 MW annually. The research indicates that a range of 3 to 5 chillers is typically optimal for most climate zones. In-depth analysis in the 4A climate zone highlights the importance of minimizing operation hours at low Part Load Ratios (PLR) to ensure that chillers operate at a high Coefficient of Performance (COP). This strategy underscores the potential of well-designed multi-chiller systems to reduce cooling energy demand, particularly in climates with transitional seasons. This study provides an overview of the energy-saving potential of multi-chiller systems, applicable across a variety of climatic scenarios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design and performance assessment of a dual-mode latent thermal storage integrated heat pump across multiple climate zones

The electrification of space cooling and heating systems risks overloading the existing electrical grid during peak hours. Heat pumps integrated with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) offer a promising solution by shifting peak loads to off-peak hours, reducing grid strains. This work presents the design and assessment of a dual-mode HP-TES that uses a single 22°C phase-change material (PCM) as a heat source or sink in heating and cooling modes, respectively. Performance assessment was conducted using Modelica-based transient models, and full-year simulations were conducted across eight US climate zones using typical weather data. Two HP-TES performance metrics: peak energy reduction and recharge energy increases, were defined by comparing HP-TES energy consumption with base HP peak consumptions. Annual heating demand reductions (40–65%) exceeded cooling demand reductions (15–20%) due to the elimination of peak-hour backup heating. Cooling mode recharge energy requirements (0–10%) were reduced in locations with lower summer nighttime temperatures, while heating recharge requirements were lower than the high base-peak energy demand from backup heating. Simplified rapid methods that were 10 7 times faster than annual simulations were developed to predict seasonal cooling and heating energy reductions, and recharge energy requirements, with maximum deviations of ±2.5% and ±3.5% points. These methods enabled rapid parametric studies that identified optimal location-specific PCM temperatures between 22°C and 27°C, highlighting the need to consider both discharge and recharge energy requirements to achieve sustainable, energy-efficient peak load shifting across various climate zones.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon emission responsive building control: A case study with an all-electric residential community in a cold climate

In the United States, buildings account for 35% of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, making them important contributors to decarbonization. Carbon intensities in the power grid are time-varying and can fluctuate significantly within hours, so shifting building loads in response to the carbon intensities can reduce a building’s operational carbon emissions. This paper presents a rule-based carbon responsive control framework that controls the setpoints of thermostatically controlled loads responding to the grid’s carbon emission signals in real time. Based on this framework, four controllers are proposed with different combinations of carbon accounting methods and control rules. To evaluate their performance, we performed simulation studies using models of a 27-home, all-electric, net zero energy residential community located in Basalt, Colorado, United States. The carbon intensity data of four future years from the Cambium data set are adopted to account for the evolving resource mix in the power grid. Various performance metrics, including energy consumption, carbon emission, energy cost, and thermal discomfort, were used to evaluate the performance of the controllers. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine how the control thresholds and intervals affect the controllers’ performance. Simulation results indicate that the carbon responsive controllers can reduce the homes’ annual carbon emissions by 6.0% to 20.5%. However, the energy consumption increased by 0.9% to 6.7%, except in one scenario where it decreased by 2.2%. Compared to the baseline, the change in energy cost was between –2.9% and 3.4%, and thermal discomfort was also maintained within an acceptable range. The little impact on energy cost and thermal discomfort indicates there are no potential roadblocks for customer acceptance when rolling out the controllers in utility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Virtual storage capability of residential buildings for sustainable smart city via model-based predictive control

This paper evaluates the virtual storage capability of a residential air-conditioning (AC) system by utilizing the building mass as a thermal storage to enable sustainable cities through model-based predictive control (MPC). The control-oriented building model was developed with a grey-box model structure based on the experimental data to predict the indoor air temperature. Based on the model, the operation cost-saving potential of the MPC was investigated in a single house with different comfort levels, electricity prices, and prediction horizons. The cost-saving of the MPC was approximately 10.6 % compared to the conventional control. The MPC was expanded to a residential building cluster considering the peak demand charge. In an hourly shedding and load-up scenario, the performances of the MPC and the heuristic prior-based control (PBC) are promising. When shedding was enforced all day, the peak demand saving of the MPC was 36~38 %, whereas that of the PBC was 25.7 % compared to the baseline. In addition, the monthly electricity bill, including the operation and peak demand cost, was investigated with different demand charge rates and weather conditions. The total saving decreased with a low demand charge rate and hot conditions, and the operation cost saving was compromised with more aggressive demand shedding.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Heterogeneous climate change impacts on electricity demand in world cities circa mid-century

Rising ambient temperatures due to climate change will increase urban populations’ exposures to extreme heat. During hot hours, a key protective adaptation is increased air conditioning and associated consumption of electricity for cooling. But during cold hours, milder temperatures have the offsetting effect of reducing consumption of electricity and other fuels for heating. We elucidate the net consequences of these opposing effects in 36 cities in different world regions. We couple reduced-form statistical models of cities’ hourly responses of electric load to temperature with temporally downscaled projections of temperatures simulated by 21 global climate models (GCMs), projecting the effects of warming on the demand for electricity circa 2050. Cities' responses, temperature exposures and impacts are heterogeneous, with changes in total annual consumption ranging from –2.7 to 5.7%, and peak power demand increasing by as much as 9.5% at the multi-GCM median. The largest increases are concentrated in more economically developed mid-latitude cities, with less developed urban areas in the tropics exhibiting relatively small changes. The results highlight the important role of the structure of electricity demand: large temperature increases in tropical cities are offset by their inelastic responses, which can be attributed to lower air-conditioning penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗