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Discovering Elusive Dynamics Across Frontiers (Final Technical Report)

Profound puzzles, such as the nature of dark matter, the origins of the electroweak scale, the mechanism behind the small neutrino mass, and the strong CP problem, suggested new physics beyond the Standard Model and drove the particle physics program in search of the associated new particles. Despite extensive searches, conventional realizations of new physics have not yet provided conclusive evidence. This raised the serious possibility that new dynamics might be more elusive, perhaps due to a richer gauge and matter structure than previously considered. Notably, the existence of dark matter and advancements in understanding the naturalness problem urged exploration into sectors with complex gauge and matter structures. Through experiments like the LHC, DUNE, and small-scale experiments, the robust US HEP program played a critical role in pursuing these well-motivated but under-explored scenarios for new physics. I explored these physics opportunities in depth, focusing on novel searches and significant improvements in parameter space coverage. The elusive dynamics revealed rich information about the underlying theory and were essential in identifying observable opportunities. Understanding the observable consequences required a deep comprehension of the theory, which I also developed. The proposal included essential components aimed at coherently increasing our knowledge in well-motivated elusive dynamics models. Through research on high-quality axions, composite neutrinos, the Higgs boson as a portal to hidden strong dynamics, and new scalar potentials to generate alternative electroweak phase transitions, I focused on identifying new signatures and parameter regions in plausible elusive dynamics models. The exploration emphasized generic possibilities motivated by broad classes of elusive dynamics models. These signatures were not effectively probed previously due to various challenges such as triggering, background suppression, or experimental design. My research involved close interaction with experimental colleagues to overcome these difficulties, leveraging new theoretical and experimental possibilities. These efforts included identifying new observables such as timing information and substructure in calorimetries, new multiple-hit techniques, new scattering events, and new resonance searches in liquid argon detectors. This work created a positive feedback loop: theory and experimental work inspired each other, revealing new exciting opportunities that supported both programs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SAM Co-Development to Support Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor Design and Licensing (CRADA 2018-18177 Final Report)

This project aims to raise the SAM code's technical and commercial maturity level to enable the Kairos Power ("Kairos") to use SAM to support its KP-FHR design analysis and licensing application. Argonne National Laboratory ("Argonne") has actively developed and maintained SAM, a modern system-level analysis tool for advanced nonlight water reactors safety analysis. Kairos is currently actively pursuing development of an FHR design and associated technology, and consequently requires a pedigreed safety analysis tool. The purpose of this project is to increase the maturity of the SAM code for the modeling and simulation of the KP-FHR design, thus enabling its use in safety analyses that support licensing application. Argonne will primarily be responsible for software design, development, and testing; while Kairos will be responsible for software requirements, assessment of software capabilities, needs, gaps, and priorities, and development of proprietary models. The research and development activities for the joint SAM development project include: a series of identification and prioritization studies on design characteristics, event sequences, relevant phenomena, and software capabilities; SAM capability enhancements for specific KP-FHR systems and components; performing code verification and validations; integrating uncertainty quantification (UQ), model calibration, and sensitivity analysis (SA) techniques in safety analyses; and raising the software quality rigor level for commercial-grade applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Aerosol transport pathways and source attribution in China during the COVID-19 outbreak

Abstract. Due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, human activities and industrial productions were strictly restricted during January–March 2020 in China. Despite the fact that anthropogenic aerosol emissions largely decreased, haze events still occurred. Characterization of aerosol transport pathways and attribution of aerosol sources from specific regions are beneficial to air quality and pandemic control strategies. This study establishes source–receptor relationships in various regions covering all of China during the COVID-19 outbreak based on the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST). Our analysis shows that PM2.5 burden over the North China Plain between 30 January and 19 February is mostly contributed by local emissions (40 %–66 %). For other regions in China, PM2.5 burden is largely contributed from nonlocal sources. During the most polluted days of the COVID-19 outbreak, local emissions within the North China Plain and eastern China contributed 66 % and 87 % to the increase in surface PM2.5 concentrations, respectively. This is associated with the anomalous mid-tropospheric high pressure at the location of the climatological East Asia trough and the consequently weakened winds in the lower troposphere, leading to the local aerosol accumulation. The emissions outside China, especially those from South Asia and Southeast Asia, contribute over 50 % to the increase in PM2.5 concentration in southwestern China through transboundary transport during the most polluted day. As the reduction in emissions in the near future is desirable, aerosols from long-range transport and unfavorable meteorological conditions are increasingly important to regional air quality and need to be taken into account in clean-air plans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resilience assessment and planning in power distribution systems: Past and future considerations

High impact low probability (HILP) events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods have instigated widespread power outages and blackouts around the globe in the past decade. With the increasing challenges concerning the threats to the power distribution systems and the growing need to mitigate the impacts of the HILP events, resilience has become a crucial requirement for the power grid infrastructures. Numerous efforts have been made to define, measure, and characterize the resilience of power distribution systems. This study thoroughly reviews the state-of-the-art methods on the existing resilience evaluation framework and metrics. Here, the desirable characteristics of resilience metrics are highlighted, and the challenges associated with formulating, developing, and calculating such metrics are discussed. Next, we detail the state-of-the-art literature on planning solutions to ensure distribution system resilience. This paper aims to extract a deep insight into this challenging and critical research area and envision future opportunities that can guide the power distribution system operators/planners to formulate more effective mitigation strategies to enhance the resilience of power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Blockchain based Communication Architectures with Applications to Private Security Networks

Existing communication protocols in high consequence security networks are highly centralized. While this naively makes the controls easier to physically secure, external actors require fewer resources to disrupt the system because there are fewer points in the system can be destroyed or interrupted without the entire system failing. We present a solution to this problem using a proof-of-work-based blockchain implementation built on MultiChain. We construct a test-bed network containing two types of data input: visual imagers and microwave sensor information. These data types are ubiquitous in perimeter intrusion detection security systems and allow a realistic representation of a real-world network architecture. The cameras in this system use an object detection algorithm to nd important targets in the scene. The raw data from the camera and the outputs from the detection algorithm are then placed in a transaction on the distributed ledger. Similarly, microwave data is used to detect relevant events and are placed in a transaction. These transactions are then bundled into blocks and broadcast to the rest of the network using the Bitcoin-based MultiChain protocol. We develop five tests to examine the security metrics of our network. We performed the five security metric test using different sized networks from 7 to 39 nodes to determine how the metrics scale with respect to size. We nd that when compared to a centralized architecture our implementation provides a resiliency increase that is expected from a blockchain-based protocol without slowing the system so much that a human operator would notice. Furthermore, our approach is able to detect tampering in real time. Based on these results, we theorize that security networks in general could use a blockchain-based approach in a meaningful way.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A MOOSE-Based Model for Fission Product Transport and Source Term Estimation for High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

Thanks to fuel elements containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles combined with a low core power density and passive feedback mechanisms leading to modest temperature rises in the event of accidental events, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) offer a high degree of reliability in terms of fission product retention. While the anticipated source term for HTGRs is expected to be very low, it is important to provide a quantitative estimate of radiological releases during nominal and accidental conditions. Here, we propose a computationally efficient mechanistic source term methodology relying on the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) for tracking fission product transport from TRISO particles up to the coolant pressure boundary, as well as modeling the transport and potential deposition of these nuclides inside the reactor coolant loop. The proposed computational scheme is applied to estimate source term inventories for a representative 10-MW(thermal) prismatic high-temperature microreactor and is qualitatively compared against known release fractions. In addition to providing an alternate analysis tool, this MOOSE model can help reactor designers quantify the influence of key design parameters relevant for studies of radiological dose consequences.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Early-time γ -ray constraints on cosmic-ray acceleration in the core-collapse SN 2023ixf with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Context. While supernova remnants (SNRs) have been considered the most relevant Galactic cosmic ray (CR) accelerators for decades, core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) could accelerate particles during the earliest stages of their evolution and hence contribute to the CR energy budget in the Galaxy. Some SNRs have indeed been associated with TeV γ -rays, yet proton acceleration efficiency during the early stages of an SN expansion remains mostly unconstrained. Aims. The multi-wavelength observation of SN 2023ixf, a Type II supernova (SN) in the nearby galaxy M 101 (at a distance of 6.85 Mpc), opens the possibility to constrain CR acceleration within a few days after the collapse of the red super-giant stellar progenitor. With this work, we intend to provide a phenomenological, quasi-model-independent constraint on the CR acceleration efficiency during this event at photon energies above 100 MeV. Methods. We performed a maximum-likelihood analysis of γ -ray data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope up to one month after the SN explosion. We searched for high-energy, non-thermal emission from its expanding shock, and estimated the underlying hadronic CR energy reservoir assuming a power-law proton distribution consistent with standard diffusive shock acceleration. Results. We do not find significant γ -ray emission from SN 2023ixf. Nonetheless, our non-detection provides the first limit on the energy transferred to the population of hadronic CRs during the very early expansion of a CCSN. Conclusions. Under reasonable assumptions, our limits would imply a maximum efficiency on the CR acceleration of as low as 1%, which is inconsistent with the common estimate of 10% in generic SNe. However, this result is highly dependent on the assumed geometry of the circumstellar medium, and could be relaxed back to 10% by challenging spherical symmetry. Consequently, a more sophisticated, inhomogeneous characterisation of the shock and the progenitor’s environment is required before establishing whether or not Type II SNe are indeed efficient CR accelerators at early times.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 16, No. 2, March-April 1975]

Nuclear Safety covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. The scope is limited to topics relevant to the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, safety considerations in regard to the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 127 Quality Assurance in the Construction of Nuclear Power Plants by Sidney A. Bernsen, 141 1974 ANS Topical Meeting on Fast Reactor Safety by M. H. Fontana; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 150 GBR-4 Protection Systems: Failures and Their Consequences by Peter Burgsmüller, J. J. Dekais, Albert Krähe, Raffaello Pignatelli, and Gottfried Vieider, 162 Standby Emergency Power Systems. Part 2—The Later Plants by E. W. Hagen; PLANT SAFETY FEATURES: 180 Radiotoxic Hazard Measure for Buried Solid Radioactive Waste by J. Hamstra, 190 The Thirteenth AEC Air-Cleaning Conference by D. W. Moeller, D. W. Underhill, and M. W. First, 203 Book Review: Nuclear Criticality Safety; CONSEQUENCES OF EFFLUENT RELEASE: 204 Environmental Radiation Effects of Nuclear Facilities in New York State by M. S. Terpilak and B. L. Jorgensen, 222 Book Review: Thermal Ecology; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 223 Set-Point Drift in Nuclear Power-Plant Safety-Related Instrumentation Adapted by the Nuclear Safety Staff, 224 Diesel-Generator Operating Experience at Nuclear Power Plants, 227 Summary of Operating U. S. Power Reactors as of Jan. 1, 1975, 232 Selected Safety-Related Occurrences Reported in November and December 1974 Compiled by William R. Casto, 235 Recent Occurrences at Nuclear Reactors and Their Causes Compiled by William R. Casto; CURRENT EVENTS: 243 General Administrative Activities Compiled by Wm. B. Cottrell, 251 Action on Power-Reactor Projects Undergoing Regulatory Review or Consideration Compiled by Wm. B. Cottrell, 266 Action on Nonreactor Projects Undergoing Regulatory Review or Consideration Compiled by Wm. B Cottrell, 268 Proposed Rule Changes as of Jan. 1, 1975; MISCELLANY: 149 Course in Italy on High-Energy Radiation Dosimetry and Protection (Announcement), 250 Course at Northwestern on Safety of Light-Water-Cooled Nuclear Power Plants (Announcement), 266 Symposium of the Combined Effects on the Environment of Radioactive, Chemical, and Thermal Releases from the Nuclear Industry (Announcement), 271 Short Course on Engineering for Extreme Winds and Tornadoes (Announcement), 272 Three 1-Week Courses at MIT on Nuclear Power-Reactor Safety (Announcement), 272 Harvard University Short Courses (Announcement).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

CONTROLLED END GAS AUTO IGNITION WITH EXHAUST GAS RECIRCULATION ON A STOICHIOMETRIC, SPARK IGNITED, NATURAL GAS ENGINE

The goal of this study is to address fundamental limitations to achieving diesel-like efficiencies in heavy duty on-highway natural gas (NG) engines. Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to higher efficiency engines. This study explores enabling technologies for development of high efficiency stoichiometric, spark ignited, natural gas engines. These include design strategies for fast and stable combustion and higher dilution tolerance. Additionally, advanced control methodologies are implemented to maintain stable operation between knock and misfire limits. To implement controlled end- gas autoignition (C-EGAI) strategies a Combustion Intensity Metric (CIM) is used for ignition control with the use of a Woodward large engine control module (LECM). Tests were conducted using a single cylinder, variable compression ratio, cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine with baseline conditions of 900 RPM, engine load of 800 kPa indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP), and stoichiometric air/fuel ratio. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) tests were performed using a custom EGR system that simulates a high pressure EGR loop and can provide a range of EGR rates from 0 to 40%. The experimental measurements included the variance of EGR rate, compression ratio, engine speed, IMEP, and CIM. These five variables were optimized through a Modified Box- Benken design Surface Response Method (RSM), with brake efficiency as the merit function. A positive linear correlation between CIM and f-EGAI was identified. Consequently, CIM was used as the feedback control parameter for C-EGAI. As such, implementation of C-EGAI effectively allowed for the utilization of high EGR rates and CRs, controlling combustion between a narrower gap between knock and lean limits. The change from fixed to parametric ignition timing with CIM targeted select values of f-EGAI with an average coefficient of variance (COV) of peak pressure of 5.4. The RSM efficiency optimization concluded with operational conditions of 1080 RPM, 1150 kPa IMEP, 10.55:1 compression ratio, and 17.8% EGR rate with a brake efficiency of 21.3%. At this optimized point of peak performance, a f-EGAI for C-EGAI was observed at 34.1% heat release due to auto ignition, a knock onset crank angle value of 10.3° aTDC and ignition timing of - 24.7° aTDC. This work has demonstrated that combustion at a fixed f-EGAI can be maintained through advanced ignition control of CIM without experiencing heavy knocking events.

Cooperative Fuel Research Engine, Auto Ignition, E↗

Volcanic Imprints in Last-Millennium Land Summer Temperatures in the Circum-North Atlantic Area

Summer cooling is one of the most direct consequences of explosive volcanic eruptions that can affect ecosystems and human societies. Recent studies revealed a multiyear cooling impact on hemispheric and global summer temperatures after tropical eruptions, yet the volcanic responses appear to vary on regional scales. Here, in this work, we revisit volcano-induced summer cooling in eastern Canada and northern and central Europe by applying superposed epoch analysis on CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and millennial temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring density. We then examine potential causes modulating region-specific volcanic impact. While confirming that, on average, tropical eruptions over the last millennium have induced a longer cooling (>4 yr) than eruptions from extratropical Northern Hemisphere in all three North Atlantic regions, we show that the peak magnitude of cooling is stronger in eastern Canada. We also find that the detected volcanic temperature anomalies can be strongly affected by the selection and number of volcanic events and nonvolcanic signals embedded in the climate time series. This study highlights the risks of using highly noisy proxy records to investigate volcanic impacts, especially in regions with strong unforced climate variability. The CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations generally agree with the three reconstructions on the average response to tropical eruptions, but their performance is poorer regarding the production of significant cooling after extratropical eruptions. Our results further suggest that the particular sensitivity to tropical eruptions in eastern Canada is likely related to increased sea ice surrounding Quebec–Labrador associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation formed during the first posteruption winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Failure Mechanism Traceability and Application in Human System Interface of Nuclear Power Plants using RESHA

In recent years, there has been considerable effort to modernize existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). However, there has also been considerable concern both by industry and regulatory bodies for the risk and consequence analysis of these systems. Of particular concern are digital common cause failures (CCFs) specifically related to software defects. These “misbehaviors” by the software can occur in both the control and monitoring of a system. While many new methods have been proposed to identify potential software failure modes, such as Systems-theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), etc., these methods are focused primarily on the control action pathway of a system. In contrast, the information feedback pathway lacks unsafe control actions (UCAs), which are typically related to software basic events; thus, assessment of software basic events in such systems is unclear. In this work, we present the idea of intermediate processors and unsafe information flow (UIF) to help safety analysts trace failure mechanisms in the feedback pathway and how they can be integrated into a fault tree for improved assessment capability. The concepts presented are demonstrated in two comprehensive case studies, a smart sensor integrated platform for unmanned autonomous vehicles and another on a representative advanced human system interface (HSI) for safety critical plant monitoring. The qualitative software basic events are identified, and a fault tree analysis is conducted based on a modified Redundancy-guided Systems-theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) methodology. The case studies demonstrate the use of UIF and intermediate processors in the fault tree to improve traceability of software failures in highly complex digital instrumentation feedback. The improved method can also clarify fault tree construction when multiple component dependencies are present in the system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Failure Mechanism Traceability and Application in Human System Interface of Nuclear Power Plants using RESHA

In recent years, there has been considerable effort to modernize existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C). However, there has also been considerable concern both by industry and regulatory bodies for the risk and consequence analysis of these systems. Of particular concern are digital common cause failures (CCFs) specifically related to software defects. These “misbehaviors” by the software can occur in both the control and monitoring of a system. While many new methods have been proposed to identify potential software failure modes, such as Systems-theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), etc., these methods are focused primarily on the control action pathway of a system. In contrast, the information feedback pathway lacks unsafe control actions (UCAs), which are typically related to software basic events; thus, assessment of software basic events in such systems is unclear. In this work, we present the idea of intermediate processors and unsafe information flow (UIF) to help safety analysts trace failure mechanisms in the feedback pathway and how they can be integrated into a fault tree for improved assessment capability. The concepts presented are demonstrated in two comprehensive case studies, a smart sensor integrated platform for unmanned autonomous vehicles and another on a representative advanced human system interface (HSI) for safety critical plant monitoring. The qualitative software basic events are identified, and a fault tree analysis is conducted based on a modified Redundancy-guided Systems-theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) methodology. The case studies demonstrate the use of UIF and intermediate processors in the fault tree to improve traceability of software failures in highly complex digital instrumentation feedback. The improved method can also clarify fault tree construction when multiple component dependencies are present in the system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

The Impact of Sudden Commencements on Ground Magnetic Field Variability: Immediate and Delayed Consequences

Abstract We examine how Sudden Commencements (SCs) and Storm Sudden Commencements (SSCs) influence the occurrence of high rates of change of the magnetic field ( R ) as a function of geomagnetic latitude. These rapid, high amplitude variations in the ground‐level geomagnetic field pose a significant risk to ground infrastructure, such as power networks, as the drivers of geomagnetically induced currents. We find that rates of change of ∼30 nT min −1 at near‐equatorial stations are up to 700 times more likely in an SC than in any random interval. This factor decreases with geomagnetic latitude such that rates of change around 30 nT min −1 are only up to 10 times more likely by 65°. At equatorial latitudes we find that 25% of all R in excess of 50 nT min −1 occurs during SCs. This percentage also decreases with geomagnetic latitude, reaching ≤1% by 55°. However, the time period from the SC to 3 days afterward accounts for ≥90% of geomagnetic field fluctuations over 50 nT min −1 , up to ∼60° latitude. Above 60°, other phenomena such as isolated substorms account for the majority of large R . Furthermore, the elevated rates of change observed during and after SCs are solely due to those classified as SSCs. These results show that SSCs are the predominant risk events for large R at mid and low latitudes, but that the risk from the SC itself decreases with latitude.

Smith, Andrew W.↗

An Overview of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Accident Progression Insights

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) have completed three uncertainty analyses (UAs) as part of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) program. The SOARCA UAs included an integrated evaluation of uncertainty in accident progression, radiological release, and offsite health consequence projections. The UA for Peach Bottom, a boiling-water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment located in the State of Pennsylvania, analyzed the unmitigated long-term station blackout SOARCA scenario. The UA for Sequoyah, a 4-loop Westinghouse pressurized-water reactor (PWR) located in the State of Tennessee, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario, with a focus on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration. The UA for Surry, a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR with a sub-atmospheric large dry containment located in the State of Virginia, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario including the potential for thermally-induced steam-generator tube rupture. These three UAs are currently documented in three NUREG/CR reports. This report provides input to planned NRC documentation on the insights and findings from the SOARCA UA program. The purpose of the summary report is to provide a useful reference for regulatory applications that require the evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyond design basis event severe accidents. This report focuses on the accident progression and source term insights developed from the MELCOR analyses. MELCOR is the NRC's best-estimate, severe accident computer code used in the SOARCA UAs. In anticipation of the SOARCA UA insights work, NRC and Sandia benchmarked the response of the Peach Bottom model to selected reference calculations from the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. Peach Bottom was the first SOARCA UA performed and was completed in 2015 using the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The PWR SOARCA UAs evolved the original methodology and utilized the updated MELCOR 2.2 computer code. The Peach Bottom model has been systematically updated for other NRC research efforts and has been updated to MELCOR 2.2. computer code. The findings from the new reference calculations using the updated model with the MELCOR 2.2 code are also integrated into the report. A second objective is an assessment of the applicability of the results to the other nuclear reactors in the U.S. As the key findings are reviewed, judgments are presented on the applicability of the results to other U.S. nuclear power plants. An important objective of the SOARCA program relied on high- fidelity plant-specific modeling. However, the nature of the insights and conclusions allowed judgements to be made on the applicability of the various insights to the same general classification of plant (i.e., BWR or PWR) or the entire fleet of plants. Finally, the results from the SOARCA UA accident progression calculations contain a wealth of information not previously documented in the NUREG/CRs. This report includes new but related information that can be used to benchmark past or support future regulatory decisions related to severe accidents. The new work includes a benchmark of the NUREG-1465 licensing source term definitions, the variability of key accident progression events and timing to radionuclide release, and an improved understanding of the timing and source terms from consequential steam generator tube ruptures. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Sandia authors gratefully acknowledge the significant technical and programmatic contributions from the NRC SOARCA team which are reflected throughout the report. Dr. Tina Ghosh has been involved throughout the SOARCA UAs, providing the primary managerial and technical oversight. The long lists of NRC and Sandia contributors from the SOARCA UAs are cited in the three NUREG/CRs and are also gratefully acknowledged by the small team of authors compiling the results of their efforts. Significant technical contributions, advice, and reviews were provided by Dr. Hossein Esmaili, Dr. Alfred Hathaway, and Dr. Edward Fuller (retired) of the NRC. Dr. Randal Gauntt (retired), Mr. Patrick Mattie, Mr. Joseph Jones (retired), and Dr. Doug Osborn from Sandia are recognized as the SOARCA UA managers guiding the past efforts. There is a comparable list of project managers at the NRC including Ms. Patricia Santiago, Dr. Salman Haq, and Mr. Jon Barr. Sadly, we have lost Mr. Charlie Tinkler and Mr. Robert Prato, who were important contributors to the original SOARCA project. Finally, Mr. Kyle Ross and Mr. Mark Leonard have also retired but were significant technical contributors. Mr. Kyle Ross was the technical lead on all three SOARCA UAs and the original pressurized water reactor SOARCA study. Mr. Leonard was the technical lead on the original boiling water reactor SOARCA study and a key contributor to the first Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. iv

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Deep desert aquifers as an archive for Mid- to Late Pleistocene hydroclimate: An example from the southeastern Mediterranean

Many efforts have been made to illuminate the nature of past hydroclimates in semi-arid and arid regions, where current and future shifts in water availability have enormous consequences on human subsistence. Deep desert aquifers, where groundwater is stored for prolonged periods, might serve as a direct record of major paleo-recharge events. To date, groundwater-based paleoclimate reconstructions have mainly focused on a relatively narrow timescale (up to ∼40 kyr), limited by the relatively short half-life of the widely used radiocarbon (5.73 kyr). Here we demonstrate the usage of deep regional aquifers in the arid southeastern Mediterranean as a hydroclimate archive for earlier Mid-to-Late Pleistocene epochs. State-of-the-art dating tools, primarily the 81 Kr radioisotope (t 1/2 = 229 kyr), were combined with other atmosphere-derived tracers to illuminate the impact of four distinguishable wetter episodes over the past 400 kyr, with differences in climatic conditions and paleo-recharge locations. Variations in stable water isotope composition suggest moisture transport from more proximal (Mediterranean) and distal (Atlantic) sources to different parts of the region at distinct times. Large variability in the computed noble gas-based recharge temperature (NGT), ranging ~15–30 °C, cannot be explained by climate variations solely, and points to different recharge pathways, including geothermal heating in the deep unsaturated zone and recharge from high-elevation (colder) regions. The obtained groundwater record complements and enhances the interpretation of other terrestrial archives in the arid region, including a contribution of valuable information regarding the moisture source origin as reflected in the deuterium-excess values, which is unattainable from the common practice analysis of calcitic cave deposits. We conclude that similar applications in other deep (hundred-m-order) regional groundwater systems (e.g., the Sahara desert aquifers) can significantly advance our understanding of long-term (up to 1 Myr) paleo-hydroclimate in arid regions, including places where no terrestrial remnants, such as cave, lake, and spring sediments, are available.

Atom Trap Trace Analysis↗

A linked-scale coupled model of mass erosion and redistribution in plasma-exposed micro-foam surfaces

Surface evolution due to exposure to harsh environments is of importance in many scientific and technological applications. In plasma-exposed materials, the surface receives charged particles from the plasma, leading to a series of processes that drive the system far from equilibrium and may lead to the severe deterioration of the surface properties. Although surface morphological changes are driven by atomic collisions taking place over picoseconds and nanometers, these processes result in mass loss and redistribution of matter over much larger length and time scales. This necessitates a multi-scale approach capable of capturing the range of processes linking primary atomic collision events with engineering-level surface geometry changes. In this paper, we develop a computational model to simulate the morphological evolution and effective erosion rate of micro-architected tungsten foams during low-energy plasma ion bombardment. Furthermore, the model acts on several length scales, with the energy and angular dependence of the sputtering yield of flat tungsten surfaces determined using the SRIM code based on the binary collision approximation. This information is introduced into a low-fluence, short-term Monte Carlo raytracing model, and further into a high-fluence, long-term particle transport model. In the latter, material particles representing billions of atoms are described in a digitized 3-D representation of the foam structure from X-ray tomography data, and are sputtered off and redeposited using the atomistic information. We show that the redeposition of sputtered atoms leads to partial self-healing in the bottom layers with a sharp reduction in the sputtering coefficient of low density foams, roughly 25% of the solid W value. This is in qualitative agreement with recent experiments on low porosity W structures. At high fluence, the foam structure degrades considerably as there are fewer ligaments available to recapture sputtered atoms and, consequently, the sputtering rate increases again.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗