Hypothesis Generation Strategies for Adaptive Problem Solving
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This paper considers the problem of learning the ranking of a set of stochastic alternatives based upon incomplete information (i.e., a limited number of samples).
Abstract A unified conceptual framework for river corridors requires synthesis of diverse site‐, method‐ and discipline‐specific findings. The river research community has developed a substantial body of observations and process‐specific interpretations, but we are still lacking a comprehensive model to distill this knowledge into fundamental transferable concepts. We confront the challenge of how a discipline classically organized around the deductive model of systematically collecting of site‐, scale‐, and mechanism‐specific observations begins the process of synthesis. Machine learning is particularly well‐suited to inductive generation of hypotheses. In this study, we prototype an inductive approach to holistic synthesis of river corridor observations, using support vector machine regression to identify potential couplings or feedbacks that would not necessarily arise from classical approaches. This approach generated 672 relationships linking a suite of 157 variables each measured at 62 locations in a fifth order river network. Eighty four percent of these relationships have not been previously investigated, and representing potential (hypothetical) process connections. We document relationships consistent with current understanding including hydrologic exchange processes, microbial ecology, and the River Continuum Concept, supporting that the approach can identify meaningful relationships in the data. Moreover, we highlight examples of two novel research questions that stem from interpretation of inductively‐generated relationships. This study demonstrates the implementation of machine learning to sieve complex data sets and identify a small set of candidate relationships that warrant further study, including data types not commonly measured together. This structured approach complements traditional modes of inquiry, which are often limited by disciplinary perspectives and favour the careful pursuit of parsimony. Finally, we emphasize that this approach should be viewed as a complement to, rather than in place of, more traditional, deductive approaches to scientific discovery.
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Melt inclusions with large, positive Sr anomalies have been described in multiple tectonic settings, and the origins of this unusual geochemical feature are debated. Three origins have been proposed, all involving plagioclase as the source of the elevated Sr: (i) direct assimilation of plagioclase-rich lithologies, (ii) recycled lower oceanic gabbro in the mantle source, and (iii) shallow-level diffusive interaction between present day lower oceanic crust (i.e., plagioclase-bearing lithologies) and the percolating melt. A “ghost plagioclase” signature (i.e., a large, positive Sr anomaly without associated high Al 2 O 3 ) is present in melt inclusions from Mauna Loa. Here, we present new 87 Sr/ 86 Sr measurements of individual olivine-hosted melt inclusions from three Hawaiian volcanoes, Mauna Loa, Loihi, and Koolau. The data set includes a Mauna Loa melt inclusion with the highest reported Sr anomaly (or highest (Sr/Ce) N , which is 7.2) for Hawai'i. All melt inclusions have 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values within the range reported previously for the lavas from each volcano. Critically, the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the high (Sr/Ce) N melt inclusion lies within the narrow range of 87 Sr/ 86 Sr for Mauna Loa melts that lack high (Sr/Ce) N signatures. Therefore, to explain the high (Sr/Ce) N ratio of the ghost plagioclase signature using an ancient recycled gabbro, the gabbro-infused mantle source would have had to evolve, by chance, to have the same 87 Sr/ 86 Sr as the source of the Mauna Loa melts that lack a recycled gabbro (ghost plagioclase) signature. Alternatively, shallow-level diffusive interactions between Mauna Loa plagioclase-rich cumulates and a percolating mantle-derived melt provides a simpler explanation for the presence of the high (Sr/Ce) N Mauna Loa melts.
Using neutron scattering dynamics measurements to validate molecular dynamic simulations, it is found that the rates of solvent exchange are not likely to limit the rates of calcite crystal growth and dissolution.
Based on entropy considerations and the arrow of time Penrose argued that the Universe must have started in a special initial singularity with vanishing Weyl curvature. This is often interpreted to be at odds with inflation. Here we argue just the opposite, that Penrose’s persuasions are in fact consistent with inflation. Using the example of power law inflation, we show that inflation begins with a past null singularity, where Weyl tensor vanishes when the metric is initially exactly conformally flat. This initial state precisely obeys Penrose’s conditions. The initial null singularity breaks T-reversal spontaneously and picks the arrow of time. It can be regulated and interpreted as a creation of a universe from nothing, initially fitting in a bubble of Planckian size when it materializes. Penrose’s initial conditions are favored by the initial O(4) symmetry of the bubble, selected by extremality of the regulated Euclidean action. The predicted observables are marginally in tension with the data, but they can fit if small corrections to power law inflation kick in during the last 60e-folds.
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Background for TRL 0-1 Research: we require a simple regional source discriminant that has a predictive capability and a quantifiable screening performance (probability of correct attribution); Challenge: many local and near-regional source discriminants do not test source mechanism; rather, they test depth. Such empirically validated discriminants are not all theoretically justified; and, Proposal: we test Rayleigh wave radiation patterns for any significant deviation from circular shape as a discriminant.
We report results from a search for neutrino-induced neutral current (NC) resonant Δ(1232) baryon production followed by Δ radiative decay, with a h0.8i GeV neutrino beam. Data corresponding to MicroBooNE’s first three years of operations (6.80×10 20 protons on target) are used to select single-photon events with one or zero protons and without charged leptons in the final state (1γ1p and 1γ0p, respectively). The background is constrained via an in-situ high-purity measurement of NC π 0 events, made possible via dedicated 2γ1p and 2γ0p selections. A total of 16 and 153 events are observed for the 1γ1p and 1γ0p selections, respectively, compared to a constrained background prediction of 20.5 ± 3.65(sys.) and 145.1 ± 13.8(sys.) events. The data lead to a bound on an anomalous enhancement of the normalization of NC Δ radiative decay of less than 2.3 times the predicted nominal rate for this process at the 90% confidence level (CL). The measurement disfavors a candidate photon interpretation of the MiniBooNE low-energy excess as a factor of 3.18 times the nominal NC Δ radiative decay rate at the 94.8% CL, in favor of the nominal prediction, and represents a greater than 50-fold improvement over the world’s best limit on single-photon production in NC interactions in the sub-GeV neutrino energy range.