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NASA NTRS1987

Dynamical factors affecting ozone mixing ratios in the Antarctic lower stratosphere

An account is given of the climatology and interannual variability of dynamical quantities and ozone mixing ratios during the Southern Hemisphere spring for 1979-1984. The seasonal variation in temperature in the lower stratosphere is repeatable; a steep decrease in zonal mean ozone mixing ratios is observed around 60 deg S toward the South Pole in September which, with time, becomes shallower in association with minor warmings and a final warming. Climatological synoptic charts in the lower stratosphere show the circumpolar circulation in the geopotential height field and the prominence of planetary wave 1 in the temperature and ozone fields. When wave activity is strong, there are weaker westeries, higher temperatures, and higher ozone mixing ratios at high latitudes.

Shiotani, Masato↗
NASA NTRS1988

Meteorological atlas of the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere for August and September 1987

Southern Hemisphere meteorological data for the months of August and September 1987 in the lower stratosphere are shown. National Meteorological Center (NMC) data, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data, and Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) data are used to display polar stereographic projections of 200 to 100 mb vertical mean temperatures, 100 mb zonal mean geopotential height perturbations, total ozone, Ertel's potential vorticity (Epv), and 50 to 30 mb vertical mean temperatures. In addition, latitude height cross sections at 65 W of potential temperature, Epv, geostrophic isotachs, and temperature are also shown. Finally, a longitude height cross section at 65 S of temperature and geostrophic wind vectors is also shown.

Newman, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

An earth outgoing longwave radiation climate model. I - Clear sky radiation

An earth outgoing longwave radiation (OLWR) climate model is presented. The model uses the upward radiative transfer parameterization of Thompson and Warren (1982) for radiation calculations, and a climatologic dataset from Crutcher and Meserve (1970) and Taljaard et al. (1969) to provide data on temperature, dewpoint, and geopotential height for various altitudes. Using the model for a monthly average radiation budget study, clear sky cases of OLWR were calculated for the global average, zonal averages, and global distributions. The regional results on North and South America were compared with GOES data and were found to agree well. The clear sky case shows that the OLWR field is highly modulated by water vapor, especially in the tropics, where the strongest longitudinal variations in OLWR occur. In the high latitudes, where cold air contains less water vapor, OLWR is basically modulated by the surface temperature.

Yang, Shi-Keng↗
NASA NTRS1987

Multiple planetary flow regimes in the Southern Hemisphere

Low-frequency variations in the general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere during 1983 were studied using daily geopotential height and temperature analyses for 12 pressure levels from 1000 mb up to 50 mb, performed by the National Meteorological Center of Japan. Results disclosed the presence, in the Southern Hemisphere troposphere, of an irregular fluctuation of two zonal mean geostrophic wind patterns (named single-jet and double-jet regimes) during wintertime. The fluctuation is characterized by the persistence of one geostrophic wind regime, with characteristic duration of a month, followed by a rather rapid transition to another regime.

Yoden, Shigeo↗
NASA NTRS1988

Medium range lagged average forecasts

In this work, the application of the lagged average forecasting (LAF) technique to operational forecasts of the ECMWF is reported. The ECMWF data consist of two 100-day samples of 10-day forecasts of 500-mb geopotential height for winter 1980/81 and summer 1981. the LAF ensemble includes the latest operational forecast, and also forecast for the same verification time started one or more days earlier than the latest one. The focus is on the following two issues: (1) does ensemble averaging improve forecast skill and (2) is the dispersion of the ensemble useful in predicting forecast skill. The LAF technique was used to produce 3, 5, 7, 8, and 9 day forecasts of the 500-mb height field. The results show that the statistically filtered LAF is a marked improvment upon the operational forecast after 5 days. It is found that on a global scale, forecast skill is weakly correlated with the dispersion of the ensemble, as measured by the rms difference between the operational forecast and the statistically filtered LAF.

Dalcher, Amnon↗
NASA NTRS1988

Mixing rates calculated from potential vorticity

Horizontal mixing coefficients K(yy) and K(yz) were computed using potential vorticity and gradients calculated from NMC data for geopotential heights and temperatures. It was found that the mid-latitude to polar mixing coefficients depend on the use of nongeostrophic winds, which yield K(yy) values which are mostly positive, whereas geostophic winds yield K(yy) values which were largely negative near the polar region. A comparison of the K(yy) values calculated from the potential vorticity fluxes and gradients with the K(yy) values calculated using the momentum balance between the flux of potential vorticity and the residual circulation has shown that the residual-circulation-balanced K(yy) values in the upper stratosphere were much larger than the values calculated by the present method. It is suggested that this difference is the result of breaking gravity waves in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The morphology and meteorology of Southern Hemisphere spring total ozone mini-holes

Two case studies of miniholes, rapid ozone decreases, noted in 1987 near the base of the Antarctic peninsula are studied using a digital filter. The results show a strong correlation of the total ozone minihole with a temperature minihole (a negative temperature perturbation), and a westward tilt with altitude of the temperature minihole. The ozone minihole is phase shifted both slightly to the east of a high in the geopotential height field and slightly to the west of a local low in the Ertel potential vorticity field.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

NMC stratospheric analyses during the 1987 Antarctic expedition

Stratospheric constant pressure analyses of geopotential height and temperature, produced as part of regular operations at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), were used by several participants of the Antarctic Ozone Expedition. A brief decription is given of the NMC stratospheric analyses and the data that are used to derive them. In addition, comparisons of the analysis values at the locations of radiosonde and aircraft data are presented to provide indications for assessing the representativeness of the NMC stratospheric analyses during the 1987 Antarctic winter-spring period.

Gelman, Melvyn E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The morphology and meteorology of Southern Hemisphere spring total ozone mini-holes

The purpose of this paper is to describe the properties of mini-hole events. Both Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and National Meteorological Center (NMC) meteorological analyses will be used to determine the horizontal, vertical and temporal characteristics of the mini-holes. Mini-holes are rapidly developing (1 to 5 days), small horizontal scale (1000 to 3000 km) features which appear in the polar total ozone field during September and October of each year. Typically, a total of 1 to 6 mini-holes appear each year in either the Palmer penninsula region or over the East Antarctica ice sheet. The mini-holes do not develop over these two regions, but they intensify most dramatically there (possibly associated with the local orography). The mini-holes are associated with cold pools of air in the lower stratosphere, anti-cyclonic (geopotential height highs) disturbances to their west, high potential vorticity slightly to the east, and strong northward flow. These meteorological features are baroclinic, having a distinct westward tilt with increasing altitude.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Stratospheric temperature-ozone relationships 1978-1986

Global stratospheric temperature and geopotential height at eight pressure levels (70, 50, 30, 10, 5, 2, 1, and 0.4 hPa) were derived at NMC daily since October 1978. These fields are based on NOAA operational satellite sounder information. Comparable daily global fields of stratospheric ozone (30 to 0.4 hPa and total ozone) were derived from the SBUV instrument on Nimbus 7 and are now derived from the operational NOAA SBUV/2 instrument. The ozone and meteorological fields are verified against ground based measurements (Umkehr, balloon, rocket, lidar) to determine fields of temperature and ozone was assembled. Some of the interesting features of correlation between the synoptic patterns of the two data sets as well as their change with time are discussed. Seasonal as well as interannual variations in the patterns of correlation are compared in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere polar regions. Other outstanding features in both the temperature and ozone fields are highlighted.

Gelman, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The use of assimilated stratospheric data in constituent transport calculations

A stratospheric assimilation system has been developed, which generates wind data that is consistent with the geopotential height (and temperature) field and the primitive equations in the general circulation model. This paper reports the first known calculations to use data from an assimilation to calculate constituent transport in the stratosphere. Nitric acid (NHO3) during the Limb IR Monitor of the Stratosphere (Gille et al., 1984) period is studied. The high-latitude time variance of the HNO3 is accurately captured. These studies suggest that data from an assimilation process offers tremendous potential for studying stratospheric dynamics, constituent transport, and chemistry.

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Meteorological atlas of the Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere for January and February 1989 during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition

Northern Hemisphere meteorological data for the months of January and February 1989 in the lower stratosphere are shown. National Meteorological Center (NMC) data, and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data are used to display polar stereographic projections of 100-mb temperatures, 50-mb temperatures, 50-mb geopotential heights, total ozone, and Ertel's potential vorticity (Epv) on both 400 K and 460 K isentropic surfaces. In addition, latitude/height cross sections at 10 E of balanced wind isotachs, wind vectors, potential temperature, and temperature are also shown. Horizontal traces of NASA ER-2 and DC-8 flight tracks are also included. Vertical profiles of NMC temperatures following flight paths of both aircraft are shown. In addition, vertical profiles of wind speed are contoured following the ER-2 for estimating the lateral penetration into the polar vortex, while vertical profiles of Ertel's potential vorticity are included for estimating the vertical penetration of the DC-8 into the stratosphere.

Newman, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Empirical orthogonal functions and multiple flow regimes in the Southern Hemisphere winter

A new empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of winter 500 mb geopotential height anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere is presented. An earlier EOF analysis prefiltered the anomalies to exclude wavenumbers 5 and higher; the present analysis does not. The different preprocessing of data affects the results. All three distinct planetary flow regimes identified in the winter circulation of the Southern Hemisphere by a pattern correlation method are captured by the new set of EOFs; only two of those regimes were captured by the earlier set. The new results, therefore, lend further support to the idea that EOFs point to distinct planetary flow regimes.

Farrara, John D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Potential vorticity index

Using standard data analysis techniques, researchers explore the links between disturbance growth and quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) gradients; appearance and disappearance of cutoff lows and blocking highs and their relation to a zonal index (properly defined in terms of PV); and teleconnections between different flow patterns and their relation to the zonal index. It was found that the PV index and the eddy index correlate better than a zonal index (defined by zonal wind) and the eddy index. In the frequency domain there are three frequencies (.03, .07 and .17 cpd (cycle per day) corresponding to periods of 33, 14 and 6 days) at which PV index and the eddy index exhibit local maxima. The high correlation found at periods of 33 days is mainly due to eddy activity at high latitudes while the local correlation maxima found at the shorter periods are mainly due mid-latitude eddy activity. The correlation between the PV index and the geopotential height anomaly at 500 mb, at each grid point in the Northern Hemisphere, shows the existence of most of the teleconnection patterns summarized by Wallace and Gutzler (1981): the North Atlantic Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the Pacific/North American patterns. Results show that the Isentropic Potential Vorticity (IPV) analysis can be a very useful and powerful tool when used to understand the dynamics of several large scale atmospheric systems. Although the data are limited to only one winter, and it is difficult to assess the statistical significance of the correlation coefficients presented here, the results are encouraging from physical viewpoint.

Barcilon, Albert↗
NASA NTRS1990

North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space

In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

Orrhede, Anna Karin↗
NASA NTRS1991

Analysis of a general circulation model simulation of the atmospheric response to the observed sea surface temperature anomalies of January and February 1983

A new version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres GCM is utilized to simulate the influence of an observed sea surface temperature anomaly on rainfall and atmospheric circulation. The model can reproduce many essential features of the observed tropical rainfall and circulation anomalies during January-February 1983. Particularly, the model simulates realistic patterns of tropical anomalies of sea level pressure, 200 mb geopotential heights, and horizontal winds at the 200 and 850 mb levels. The model-simulated tropical precipitation anomaly patterns appear realistic, although the precipitation is rather excessive and the atmosphere is too energetic.

Sud, Y. C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. II - Southern Hemisphere

A systematic examination of oscillatory modes in the global atmosphere is completed by studying 12 years of 500 mb geopotential heights in the Southern Hemisphere. The data were band-pass filtered to focus on intraseasonal (IS) phenomena, and spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were obtained. The leading principal components were subjected to singular spectrum analysis in order to identify nonlinear IS oscillations with high statistical confidence. In the Southern Hemisphere, the dominant mode has a period of 23 days, with spatial patterns carried by the second and third winter EOF of the IS band. It has a zonal wavenumber-four structure. The 40-day mode is second, and is dominated by wavenumbers three and four, while a 16-day mode is too weak to separate its spatial behavior from the previous two. The IS dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere is more complex and dominated by shorter wavenumbers than the Northern Hemisphere. No statistically significant correlations between the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics or the Northern Hemisphere are apparent in the IS band.

Ghil, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1991

The behavior of wave 2 in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere during late winter and early spring

The behavior of wave 2 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter and early spring stratosphere has been examined in detail using 10 years of NMC data. Wave 2 is characterized by a broad meridional structure peaking between 55 and 65 S, and regular eastward propagation, with periods ranging from 5 to 40 days. The range of maximum geopotential height amplitudes is from 600 to 1000 m for a year. Consideration is also given to the relationship of wave 2 to other features of stratospheric circulation, Eliassen-Palm fluxes, and synoptic maps. The results obtained show that the zonal mean state of the SH stratosphere frequently satisfies conditions for instability. It is concluded that both instability of zonally symmetric and asymmetric states, and nonlinear interactions between wave 1 and wave 2 are of importance for determining the behavior of wave 2 in the SH winter and spring stratosphere.

Manney, G. L.↗