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At least 145 records · Page 8

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2024 Edition [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.7 million systems installed through year-end 2023, representing close to 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, roof-coverage ratios, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and customer segmentation -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive analysis and a multi-variate regression to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2023.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DSCOVR/EPIC-derived global hourly and daily downward shortwave and photosynthetically active radiation data at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution

Downward shortwave radiation (SW) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) play crucial roles in Earth system dynamics. Spaceborne remote sensing techniques provide a unique means for mapping accurate spatiotemporally continuous SW–PAR, globally. However, any individual polar-orbiting or geostationary satellite cannot satisfy the desired high temporal resolution (sub-daily) and global coverage simultaneously, while integrating and fusing multisource data from complementary satellites/sensors is challenging because of co-registration, intercalibration, near real-time data delivery and the effects of discrepancies in orbital geometry. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on board the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), launched in February 2015, offers an unprecedented possibility to bridge the gap between high temporal resolution and global coverage and characterize the diurnal cycles of SW–PAR globally. In this study, we adopted a suite of well-validated data-driven machine-learning models to generate the first global land products of SW–PAR, from June 2015 to June 2019, based on DSCOVR/EPIC data. The derived products have high temporal resolution (hourly) and medium spatial resolution (0.1°×0.1°), and they include estimates of the direct and diffuse components of SW–PAR. We used independently widely distributed ground station data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program to evaluate the performance of our products, and we further analyzed and compared the spatiotemporal characteristics of the derived products with the benchmarking Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Synoptic (CERES) data. We found both the hourly and daily products to be consistent with ground-based observations (e.g., hourly and daily total SWs have low biases of -3.96 and -0.71 W m -2 and root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 103.50 and 35.40 W m -2 , respectively). The developed products capture the complex spatiotemporal patterns well and accurately track substantial diurnal, monthly, and seasonal variations in SW–PAR when compared to CERES data. They provide a reliable and valuable alternative for solar photovoltaic applications worldwide and can be used to improve our understanding of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities of the terrestrial water, carbon and energy fluxes at various spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The predicted properties of helium-enriched globular cluster progenitors at high redshift

Globular cluster progenitors may have been detected by Hubble Space Telescope, and are predicted to be observable with James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and ground-based extremely large telescopes with adaptive optics. This has the potential to elucidate the issue of globular cluster formation and the origins of significantly helium-enriched subpopulations, a problem in Galactic astronomy with no satisfactory theoretical solution. Given this context, we use model stellar tracks and isochrones to investigate the predicted observational properties of helium-enriched stellar populations in globular cluster progenitors. We find that, relative to helium-normal populations, helium-enriched (ΔY = +0.12) stellar populations similar to those inferred in the most massive globular clusters, are expected, modulo some rapid fluctuations in the first ~30 Myr, to be brighter and redder in the rest frame. At fixed age, stellar mass, and metallicity, a helium-enriched population is predicted to converge to being ~0.40 mag brighter at $\lambda \approx 2.0\, {\mu \rm m}$, and to be 0.30-mag redder in the JWST–NIRCam colour (F070W - F200W), and to actually be fainter for $\lambda \lesssim 0.50 \, {\mu \rm m}$. Separately, we find that the time-integrated shift in ionizing radiation is a negligible $\sim \!5{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, though we show that the Lyman-α escape fraction could end up higher for helium-enriched stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Updated sustainability status of cadmium telluride thin‐film photovoltaic systems and projections

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the up-to-date life-cycle sustainability status of cadmium-telluride based photovoltaic (PV) systems. Current production modules (Series 6 and Series 7) are analyzed in terms of their energy performance and environmental footprint and compared with the older series 4 module production and current single-crystalline Silicon (sc-Si) module production. For fixed-tilt systems with Series 6 modules operating under average US irradiation of 1800 kWh/m 2 /year, the global warming potential (GWP) is reduced from 16 g CO 2eq /kWh in Series 4 systems to 10 CO 2 eq /kWh in Series 6 systems. For operation in US-SW irradiation of 2300 kWh/m 2 /year, the GWP is reduced from 11 to 8 CO 2eq /kWh and for 1-axis tracking systems operating in Phoenix, Arizona, with point-of array irradiation of 3051 kWh/m 2 /year the GWP is reduced to 6.5 CO 2eq /kWh. Similar reductions have happened in all environmental indicators. Energy payback times (EPBT) of currently installed systems range from 0.6 years for fixed–tilt ground–mounted installations at average US irradiation at latitude tilt installations to 0.3 years for one-axis trackers at high US-SW irradiation, considering average fossil-fuel dominated electricity grids with fuel to electricity conversion efficiency of 0.3. The resulting energy return on energy investment (EROI) also depends on the conversion efficiency of the electricity grid and on the operation life expectance. For a 30-year operational life and grid conversion efficiency of 0.3, EROI ranges from 50 (at US average irradiation) to 70 for US-SW irradiation. The EROI declines with increased grid conversion efficiency; for CdTe PV operating in south California with grid conversion efficiency of 49%, the EROI is about 50 and is projected to fall to 30 when the state's 2030 target of 80% renewable energy penetration materializes. Material alternatives that show a potential of further reductions in degradation rates and materials for enhanced encapsulation that would enable longer operation lives have also been investigated. A degradation rate of 0.3%/year, which has been verified by accelerated testing, is assumed in 30-year scenarios; this is projected to be reduced to 0.2%/year in the near-term and potentially to 0.1%/year in the longer term. With such low degradation rates and enhanced edge-sealing, modules can last 40- to 50-years. Consequently, all impact indicators will be proportionally reduced while EROI will increase. This detailed LCA was conducted according to ISO standards and IEA PVPS Task 12 guidelines. Furthermore, the study revealed that the choices of system models, methods and temporal system boundaries can significantly impact the results and points out to the need to include assumptions regarding these choices in the “transparency in reporting” requirements listed in the IEA PVPS Task 12 Guidelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Performance of DSRC V2V Communication Networks in an Autonomous Semi-Truck Platoon Application

Autonomy for multiple trucks to drive in a fixedheadway platoon formation is achieved by adding precision GPS and V2V communications to a conventional adaptive cruise control (ACC) system. The performance of the Cooperative ACC (CACC) system depends heavily on the reliability of the underlying V2V communications network. Using data recorded on precision-instrumented trucks at both ACM and NCAT test tracks, we provide an understanding of various effects on V2V network performance: Occlusions - non-line-of-sight (NLOS) between the Tx and Rx antenna may cause network signal loss. Rain - water droplets in the air may cause network signal degradation. Antenna position - antennas at higher elevation may have less ground clutter to deal with. RF interference - interference may cause network packet loss. GPS outage - outages caused by tree cover, tunnels, etc. may result in degraded performance. Road curvature - curves may affect antenna diversity. Road grade - antenna may have limited vertical coverage. Our results, which include multiple plots and graphs and their analysis, build on those reported by others and could be of interest to researchers, practitioners, and end-users in the broader autonomous-connected vehicle community.

V2V communications, GPS, truck platoon, semi-auton↗

Orthoimagery and Shapefiles Documenting Pre- and Post-August 2019 Slope Disturbances, Teller Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2018-2019

This dataset was derived from UAS aerial photos and dGPS data collected at the Teller mile marker 47 site in 2018 and 2019 and used to support research quantifying the timing and rate of surface movements and analyze soil transport process in Arctic landscapes. In July 2018, a Phantom uncrewed aerial system (UAS) collected >6800 high resolution aerial photos of the lower portion of the Teller 47 watershed (see for raw photos; pending archive NGA281). During the UAS survey, 25 x 25 cm tile ground control points (GCPs) were laid out and secured with one rebar rod in the center. The four corners and rebar tops were surveyed with differential GPS, and these coordinates were used to construct and validate an orthomosaic of the site. These points were resurveyed in August 2019 and used to track annual movement. Changes in position between the two surveys are reported in (Lathrop et al. 2022; NGA254). Agisoft Metashape photogrammetry software was used to construct a georeferenced orthomosaic image (*.tif file) of a portion (0.68 km2) of the watershed with a final resolution of ~1 cm. Manual delineation of the perimeters of failures visible in the UAS imagery (*.tif files) was conducted to create shapefile polygons (two *.zip files). The failures were identified by the exposure of bare mineral soils, which were made visible by disruption of the overlying tundra vegetation. The shapefiles were then used to analyse the topographic distribution and sizes of the failures. In August 2019 an additional ~300 georeferenced UAS images of slope instability features were collected (data pending submission) and compared with the 2018 orthomosaic. Overview maps of the failure locations included as a *.pdf.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Effect of dielectric target properties on plasma surface ionization wave propagation

Surface ionization waves (SIWs) propagating along dielectric covered, grounded surfaces have been studied for various dielectric bulk and surface conditions; a dependence on the propagation velocity with respect to dielectric electrical thickness and near surface permittivity profiles are observed. SIWs generated by an atmospheric pressure plasma source are imaged interacting with planar dielectric surface. Surface wave velocity is obtained by tracking emission intensity as a function of time. Target dielectric thickness is varied from $d = 0.15-10$ mm and dielectric constant is varied from $\epsilon_r = 6.21 - 9.4$. The propagation of SIWs can be generally predicted by relating their velocity to the RC time constant of the circuit generated between the plasma and the dielectric surface, but it is found that this approximation breaks down for dielectric substrates of sufficient thickness and wave velocity becomes constant. The results show that wave velocity is stable and predictable for target thicknesses beyond a certain point determined by the permittivity of the target material. It is also shown that SIW propagation is strongly driven by the dielectric material near to the surface of the target in addition to the bulk material. The possible mechanisms driving these thickness dependent behaviors is discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE)

Convective clouds play an important role in Earth’s climate system and are a known source of extreme weather. Gaps in our understanding of convective vertical motions, microphysics, and precipitation across a full range of aerosol and meteorological regimes continue to limit our ability to predict the occurrence and intensity of these cloud systems. To improve predictability, the National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored a large field experiment entitled “Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE).” ESCAPE took place between 30 May and 30 September 2022 in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, because this area frequently experiences isolated deep convection that interacts with the region’s mesoscale circulations and its range of aerosol conditions. ESCAPE focused on collecting observations of isolated deep convection through innovative sampling and developing novel analysis techniques. This included the deployment of two research aircraft, the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 and the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet, which combined conducted 24 research flights from 30 May to 17 June. On the ground, three mobile X-band radars and one mobile Doppler lidar truck equipped with soundings were deployed from 30 May to 28 June. From 1 August to 30 September 2022, a dual-polarization C-band radar was deployed and operated using a novel, multisensor agile adaptive sampling strategy to track the entire life cycle of isolated convective clouds. Analysis of the ESCAPE observations has already yielded preliminary findings on how aerosols and environmental conditions impact the convective life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation Studies of Intra-Train, Bunch-by-Bunch Feedback Systems at the International Linear Collider

The International Linear Collider (ILC) is a proposed electron-positron collider targeting collision energies from 250 GeV to 1 TeV. With design luminosities of order 10³⁴ cm²s⁻¹, a beam-based, intra-train feedback system would be required near the Interaction Point (IP) to provide nanometre-level stabilisation of the beam overlap in the collisions. Here we present results from beam-tracking simulations of the 500 GeV ILC, including the impact of beam-trajectory imperfections on the luminosity, and the capability of the IP feedback system to compensate for them. Effects investigated include the position jitter introduced by the damping ring extraction kicker, short-range and long-range wakefields, and ground motion. The feedback system was shown to be able to correct for beam-beam offsets of up to 200 nm and stabilise the collision overlap to the nanometre level, within a few bunch crossings.

Ramjiawan, R. L.↗

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Remote Radiation Sensing Using Aerial and Ground Platforms

Remote sensing of ionizing radiation has a significant role in waste management, nuclear material management and nonproliferation, and radiation safety. Robotic platforms can surpass the number of tasks that are achieved by humans. With this technique, the operator's radiation exposure can be decreased. Remote sensing allows for the evaluation and monitoring of radiological contamination. Gamma-ray and neutron sensors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. This approach allows for the radiation sensor data to be dynamically tracked and mapped thus enabling further analysis of the radiation flux in temporal and spatial domains. The goal is to complete scheduled tasks while the robot is being irradiated. To achieve this, electronic components must be shielded and radiation hardened. CZT Detector: Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detector technology has been a promising solution for gamma-ray and x-ray measurements. Detector data is transferred to the Odroid minicomputer that controls and powers the module via the USB. Robot Operating System (ROS) was utilized for data acquisition and data fusion. The Mariscotti method was employed for the spectrum analysis. A function was programmed in ROS for the automatic identification of photopeaks. CLYC Detector: A Cs{sub 2}LiYCl{sub 6}:Ce{sup 3+} (CLYC) detector was used for simultaneous medium-resolution gamma-ray measurements and neutron counting. A 2.54 cm diameter photomultiplier tube (PMT) was equipped with a high voltage supply and a miniature digitizer. Gamma-ray excitation: fast core-to-valence luminescence (CVL) with 1 ns decay constant, and prompt Ce{sup 3+} emission with 50 ns decay constant. Neutron excitation: slow cerium self-trapped excitation (Ce{sup 3+} STE), 1000 ns decay constant. Radiation Source Localization: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and gradient-based methods were used to locate the position of a radiation source based on measured radiation intensities. Multi-Particle Transport Code FLUKA: Estimation of radiation damage of the electronic components is important in order to optimize the robot's operational time while it is irradiated. Displacement per atom (DPA) represents the radiation damage in materials exposed to the ionizing radiation. Various shielding layers of different thickness t were analyzed (< 5% statistical error). The model of the controller of the UAS was designed in FLUKA. Conclusion: CZT and CLYC detectors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. Radiation source localization and contour mapping using robotic platforms were studied. Functions for data analysis and fusion were developed in ROS. FLUKA code was utilized to analyze DPA values. Layers of low-density and high-density materials were used to shield the UAS electronics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Rapid RASER MRI

Conventional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) relies on high-power Radio-Frequency (RF) pulses to excite nuclear spins and in turn generate NMR signals. These pulses require large high-power RF-amplifiers and cause heat deposition in the tissue, which must be minimized for safety, presenting a growing problem when moving toward ever-higher field MRI. An alternative to RF-pulse excitation is self-excitation of nuclear spins using Radiofrequency Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation (RASER), where the nuclear spins undergo spontaneous transition, without RF excitation, from an over-populated state to a ground state. Here, the feasibility of recording rapid proton RASER MRI images of pyrazine at low concentration (120 mM) with large matrix (128x128 pixels) in as little as 78 ms is demonstrated at 500 MHz (11.7 T). We also recorded a time-series of images using a single bolus hyperpolarized pyrazine highlighting the feasibility of dynamic tracking. Here, the demonstrated approach allows recording MRI scans without transmit-receive electronics of the MRI scanner, which is highly desirable for portable MRI as well as the emerging field of hyperpolarized MRI using, e.g., HP protons, 129 Xe gas or HP 13 C labeled biomolecules as molecular tracers and imaging agents.

MRI↗

Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Daytime Video Monitoring for Bird, Insect, and Other Wildlife Interactions with Photovoltaic Solar Energy Facilities

Studying bird, insect, and other wildlife interactions with photovoltaic (PV) solar energy facilities is difficult due to limited multi-season, multi-site data. Researchers can address such data gaps by combining passive monitoring and artificial intelligence (AI). As a part of the development of AI-enabled avian–solar monitoring software, we collected over 19,000 h of daytime videos at five PV sites across three U.S. regions between 2019 and 2024. We applied a moving object detection and tracking (MODT Version 1) AI model we developed earlier to 4373 h of the footage to extract moving objects in video frames, and human reviewers interpreted the model output and identified 68,646 bird, 25,968 insect, and 169 other wildlife instances to generate the training/validation dataset. We analyzed the data by site, region, and season, considering ground cover and landscapes. Songbirds were most common, with raptors as the next most frequent group. Most notably, no bird collisions were confirmed in our observations collected from the videos. Birds most often flew over or near panels, with the highest observations in the Midwest and Northeast (approximately 30 observations per hour on average) and fewer in the desert Southwest. Other behaviors included perching, foraging, and nesting. Bird abundance peaked during breeding and migration seasons. AI-assisted video monitoring proved effective for non-invasively studying flying wildlife at solar facilities to inform ecologically mindful energy development.

avian mortality↗

Kinetic pathways of ionic transport in fast-charging lithium titanate

Fast-charging batteries typically use electrodes capable of accommodating lithium continuously by means of solid-solution transformation because they have few kinetic barriers apart from ionic diffusion. One exception is lithium titanate (Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 ), an anode exhibiting extraordinary rate capability apparently inconsistent with its two-phase reaction and slow Li diffusion in both phases. Through real-time tracking of Li+ migration using operando electron energy-loss spectroscopy, we reveal that facile transport in Li 4+x Ti 5 O 12 is enabled by kinetic pathways comprising distorted Li polyhedra in metastable intermediates along two-phase boundaries. Our work demonstrates that high-rate capability may be enabled by accessing the energy landscape above the ground state, which may have fundamentally different kinetic mechanisms from the ground-state macroscopic phases. This insight should present new opportunities in searching for high-rate electrode materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

SUBTASK 1.6 – BASIN ELECTRIC CARBON STORAGE RESEARCH PROJECT: NOVEL MONITORING TECHNIQUES

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted baseline activities associated with an applied research project at Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s (Basin’s) carbon capture and storage (CCS) site in Beulah, North Dakota, to establish novel carbon storage-monitoring techniques as commercial methods under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, Subtask 1.6. The following report summarizes the baseline activities performed and briefly describes the subsequent (operational monitoring) activities that have been proposed to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the overall project to develop and demonstrate novel monitoring techniques at North America’s largest permitted CCS operation. Dakota Gasification Company (DGC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Basin, owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) approximately 5 miles northwest of the town of Beulah, North Dakota (Figure 1). In 2023, DGC received approval from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to develop a storage facility on-site for injecting a stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from GPSP. DGC will transport the captured CO2 stream with approximately 6.8 miles of transmission lines that extend north of GPSP and inject >1 million tonnes (MMt) of CO2 annually (>1 MMt/yr) over a 12-year period with up to six underground injection control (UIC) Class VI-compliant injection wells completed in the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer underlying GPSP. The Broom Creek Formation lies approximately 5900 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs) at GPSP. The commercial scale (i.e., >1 MMt/yr) of DGC’s permitted carbon storage project is ideal for developing and testing the novel monitoring techniques included within Subtask 1.6. The goals of this project are to demonstrate 1) the cost-effectiveness of novel monitoring technologies included as part of this research, 2) technology capability for tracking the CO2 plume and/or associated pressure response in the subsurface and monitoring out-of-zone migration, and 3) compliance with UIC Class VI program requirements. The research activities proposed for the overall project include 1) design of an automated, integrated, modular (AIM) monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance studies; 4) time-lapse monitoring with seismic methods; 5) advanced wellbore-monitoring methods; 6) deployment of an AIM monitoring network; 7) EM monitoring of CO2 with real-time data processing; 8) continued seasonal drone-based surveillance studies; 9) seismic monitoring with passive and active surveys; and 10) wellbore monitoring with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for near-surface characterization. Completion of Activities 1.0–5.0 (baseline activities) are described in this report. Upon authorization of funding by DOE, the EERC will initiate Activities 6.0– 10.0 (operational monitoring activities). Current state-of-the-art (SOA) carbon storage-monitoring techniques require countless labor hours dedicated to the acquisition of data. Once data are gathered, these SOA techniques often rely on commercial facilities to process raw data from the field. However, it is anticipated that next-generation monitoring techniques, such as those being demonstrated, will lower acquisition footprints, be less operationally intensive, and improve data acquisition efficiencies. These new techniques are more conducive to the application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation, thus providing a pathway for integration into active control systems, informing site operability, and improving the integration of data for future CCS projects across the United States. Additionally, reclaimed and active mining lands are present within the project site, creating a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing and surface-based geophysics monitoring techniques at similar project sites that may include disturbed, unconsolidated, or actively excavated near-surface environments. The efforts included in the overall project will produce necessary designs, learnings, and data acquired during the baseline and operational monitoring periods that are necessary for time-lapse demonstration and validation of the described monitoring techniques. In addition, it is anticipated that the monitoring technologies included in this study will be compliant with UIC Class VI requirements to enable the potential for implementation at other CCS sites across the United States.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simple Wins: Driving Effective Implementation of Energy Efficiency Projects

Small- and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) in the United States, making up over 98% of manufacturing firms, account for 48.3% of the sector’s energy consumption. Despite access to energy assessments and technical resources, such as those from the US Department of Energy’s Better Plants program and Industrial Training and Assessment Centers, implementation rates for identified energy-saving measures remain lower than expectations, averaging 47%. Some barriers were identified by other researchers as limited workforce capacity, inadequate training, and time constraints hinder progress. This article studied the development of customized checklists together with the energy assessment report as a practical solution to improve implementation rates for energy efficiency projects among SMMs. The framework for the checklists was grounded in five principles: short, precise, actionable, relevant, and codeveloped (SPARC). A case study of a 500,000-squarefoot SMM demonstrates how tailored checklists targeting significant energy users—such as heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC), lighting, and compressed air systems for this facility—can simplify the process for staff to do facility walkthroughs to monitor best practices and track the progress of energy efficiency project implementation.

Guo, Wei [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oa↗

Ensemble‐Based, Large‐Eddy Reconstruction of Wind Turbine Inflow in a Near‐Stationary Atmospheric Boundary Layer Through Generative Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT To validate the second‐by‐second dynamics of turbines in field experiments, it is necessary to accurately reconstruct the winds going into the turbine. Current time‐resolved inflow reconstruction techniques estimate wind behavior in unobserved regions using relatively simple spectral‐based models of the atmosphere. Here, we develop a technique for time‐resolved inflow reconstruction that is rooted in a large‐eddy simulation model of the atmosphere. Our “large‐eddy reconstruction” technique blends observations and atmospheric model information through a diffusion model machine learning algorithm, allowing us to generate probabilistic ensembles of reconstructions for a single 10‐min observational period. Our generated inflows can be used directly by aeroelastic codes or as inflow boundary conditions in a large‐eddy simulation. We verify the second‐by‐second reconstruction capability of our technique in three synthetic field campaigns, finding positive Pearson correlation coefficient values () between ground‐truth and reconstructed streamwise velocity, as well as smaller positive correlation coefficient values for unobserved fields (spanwise velocity, vertical velocity, and temperature). We validate our technique in three real‐world case studies by driving large‐eddy simulations with reconstructed inflows and comparing to independent inflow measurements. The reconstructions are visually similar to measurements, follow desired power spectra properties, and track second‐by‐second behavior ().

17 WIND ENERGY↗