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At least 145 records · Page 8

A sustained high-temperature fusion plasma regime facilitated by fast ions

Nuclear fusion is one of the most attractive alternatives to carbon-dependent energy sources. Harnessing energy from nuclear fusion in a large reactor scale, however, still presents many scientific challenges despite the many years of research and steady advances in magnetic confinement approaches. State-of-the-art magnetic fusion devices cannot yet achieve a sustainable fusion performance, which requires a high temperature above 100 million kelvin and sufficient control of instabilities to ensure steady-state operation on the order of tens of seconds. Here, in this study, we report experiments at the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research device producing a plasma fusion regime that satisfies most of the above requirements: thanks to abundant fast ions stabilizing the core plasma turbulence, we generate plasmas at a temperature of 100 million kelvin lasting up to 20 seconds without plasma edge instabilities or impurity accumulation. A low plasma density combined with a moderate input power for operation is key to establishing this regime by preserving a high fraction of fast ions. This regime is rarely subject to disruption and can be sustained reliably even without a sophisticated control, and thus represents a promising path towards commercial fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TRACE Analysis of the STS Target Flow Loop Conceptual Design

This report documents the efforts to model the conceptual design of the STS natural circulation flow loop using TRACE. The results, summarized in Section 2.1, support the conclusion that the conceptual STS natural circulation flow loop design provides sufficient cooling of the tungsten target and exhibits predictable flow behavior, provided that certain design features and/or operating conditions are used. In particular: A sufficient initial liquid volume fraction is required to avoid dryout of the target flow channels; Inclusion of a pressurizer or bellows volume at the top of the loop is recommended and is capable of achieving steady, non-oscillatory flow and temperature conditions at sufficiently high loop pressure. Section 1 provides a detailed description of the geometry and assumptions used in the model, and Section 2 presents the results for the current flow loop design as well as some investigation of potential design modifications with the goal of enhancing the thermal hydraulic stability of the loop.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Air quality impacts from the development of unconventional oil and gas well pads: Air toxics and other volatile organic compounds

Unconventional oil and natural gas development (UOGD) has expanded rapidly across the United States in recent decades and raised concerns about associated air quality impacts. While significant effort has been made to quantify methane emissions, relatively few observations have been made of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), especially during drilling and completion of new wells. Extensive air monitoring during development of several large, multi-well pads in Broomfield, Colorado, in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, provides a novel opportunity to examine changes in local air toxics and other VOC concentrations during well drilling and completions and production. These operations offer an especially useful case to study as several management practices were implemented to reduce emissions (e.g., electrified, grid-powered drill rigs and closed loop fluid handling systems to reduce truck traffic and limit fluid handling on the pad). With simultaneous measurements of methane and 50 VOCs from October 2018 to December 2022 at as many as 19 sites near well pads, in adjacent neighborhoods, and at a more distant reference location, we identify impacts from each phase of well development and production. Use of weekly, time-integrated canisters, a Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTR-MS), continuous photoionization detectors (PID) to trigger canister collection upon detection of VOC-rich plumes, and an instrumented vehicle, provided a powerful suite of measurements to characterize both transient plumes and longer-term changes in air quality. Prior to the start of well development, VOC gradients were small across Broomfield. Once drilling commenced, concentrations of oil and gas (O&G) related VOCs, including alkanes and aromatics, increased around active well pads. Concentration increases were clearly apparent during certain operations, including drilling, coil tubing/millout operations, and production tubing installation. Emissions of C 8 –C 10 n-alkanes during drilling operations highlighted the importance of VOC emissions from synthetic drilling mud chosen to reduce odor impacts. More than 90 samples were collected of transient plumes. Using composition measurements, meteorological data, and information about well pad activities, these plumes were connected with specific UOGD operations including drilling, flowback, and production equipment maintenance. The chemical signatures of these plumes differed by operation type (e.g., C 8 –C 10 n-alkanes constituted a larger fraction of measured VOCs in drilling-related plumes). Concentrations of individual, oil and gas-related VOCs in these plumes were often several orders of magnitude higher than in background air, with maximum ethane and benzene concentrations of 79,600 and 819 ppbv, respectively. Because these plumes typically impact a monitoring site for just several minutes, they are easily missed by slower-responding instruments. Study measurements highlight future emission mitigation opportunities during UOGD operations, including better control of emissions from shakers that separate drill cuttings from drilling mud, production separator maintenance operations, and periodic emptying of sand cans during flowback operations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Airborne Release Fractions from Surrogate Nuclear Waste Fires Containing Lanthanide Nitrates and Depleted Uranium Nitrate in 30% Tributyl Phosphate in Kerosene

Airborne contaminants from fires containing nuclear waste represent significant health hazards and shape the design and operation of nuclear facilities. Much of the data used to formulate DOE-HDBK-3010-94, “Airborne Release Fractions/Rates and Respirable Fractions for Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities,” from the U.S. Department of Energy, were taken over 40 years ago. The objectives of this study were to reproduce experiments from Pacific Northwest Laboratories conducted in June 1973 employing current aerosol measurement methods and instrumentation, develop an enhanced understanding of particulate formation and transport from fires containing nuclear waste, and provide modeling and experimental capabilities for updating current standards and practices in nuclear facilities. A special chamber was designed to conduct small fires containing 25 mL of flammable waste containing lutetium nitrate, ytterbium nitrate, or depleted uranium nitrate. Carbon soot aerosols showed aggregates of primary particles ranging from 20 to 60 nm in diameter. In scanning electron microscopy, ~200-nm spheroidal particles were also observed dispersed among the fractal aggregates. The 200-nm spherical particles were composed of metal phosphates. Airborne release fractions (ARFs) were characterized by leaching filter deposits and quantifying metal concentrations with mass spectrometry. The average mass-based ARF for 238 U experiments was 1.0 × 10 -3 with a standard deviation of 7.5 × 10 -4 . For the original experiments, DOE-HDBK-3010-94 states, “Uranium ARFs range from 2 × 10 -4 to 3 × 10 -3 , an uncertainty of approximately an order of magnitude.” Therefore, current measurements were consistent with DOE-HDBK-3010-94 values. ARF values for lutetium and ytterbium were approximately one to two orders of magnitude lower than 238 U. Furthermore, metal nitrate solubility may have varied with elemental composition and temperature, thereby affecting ARF values for uranium surrogates (Yb and Lu). In addition to ARF data, solution boiling temperatures and evaporation rates can also be deduced from experimental data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Impact of installation faults in air conditioners and heat pumps in single-family homes on U.S. energy usage

To ensure that new residential air conditioners and heat pumps operate optimally, care must be taken during the initial system design and installation to avoid missteps that immediately degrade a system’s performance. Laboratory and simulation studies have quantified the impact that faults can have on capacity and efficiency. Field studies have demonstrated that installation-related faults are commonplace. However, the national impact of installation-related faults cannot be accurately estimated by only simulating a limited number of homes at several fault levels because of the variety of home characteristics and climates involved. In our analysis, we use an improved residential building stock simulation tool to predict the annual energy increase and additional utility costs resulting from two common installation faults: indoor airflow rate and refrigerant charge level. Our method considers the wide range of building characteristics and climate zones of the U.S. housing stock. We use existing field data to develop fault intensity probability distributions to inform our analysis. The study shows that these two faults result in approximately 20.7 TWh/y of additional energy use for central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in U.S. single-family detached homes, which is a 9% increase over baseline (no-fault) usage, costing homeowners approximately $2.5 billion annually on utility bills. Air-source heat pumps are responsible for a disproportionate fraction of this energy use increase because of the larger number of operating hours compared to central air conditioners and the sensitivity of heating mode performance to the faults analyzed compared to cooling mode.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Load‐Balancing Intense Physics Calculations to Embed Regionalized High‐Resolution Cloud Resolving Models in the E3SM and CESM Climate Models

Abstract We design a new strategy to load‐balance high‐intensity sub‐grid atmospheric physics calculations restricted to a small fraction of a global climate simulation's domain. We show why the current parallel load balancing infrastructure of Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Energy Exascale Earth Model (E3SM) cannot efficiently handle this scenario at large core counts. As an example, we study an unusual configuration of the E3SM Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) that embeds a binary mixture of two separate cloud‐resolving model grid structures that is attractive for low cloud feedback studies. Less than a third of the planet uses high‐resolution (MMF‐HR; sub‐km horizontal grid spacing) relative to standard low‐resolution (MMF‐LR) cloud superparameterization elsewhere. To enable MMF runs with Multi‐Domain cloud resolving models (CRMs), our load balancing theory predicts the most efficient computational scale as a function of the high‐intensity work's relative overhead and its fractional coverage. The scheme successfully maximizes model throughput and minimizes model cost relative to precursor infrastructure, effectively by devoting the vast majority of the processor pool to operate on the few high‐intensity (and rate‐limiting) high‐resolution (HR) grid columns. Two examples prove the concept, showing that minor artifacts can be introduced near the HR/low‐resolution CRM grid transition boundary on idealized aquaplanets, but are minimal in operationally relevant real‐geography settings. As intended, within the high (low) resolution area, our Multi‐Domain CRM simulations exhibit cloud fraction and shortwave reflection convergent to standard baseline tests that use globally homogenous MMF‐LR and MMF‐HR. We suggest this approach can open up a range of creative multi‐resolution climate experiments without requiring unduly large allocations of computational resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cooling performance of an active-passive hybrid composite phase change material (HcPCM) finned heat sink: Constant operating mode

Here, the present study explores a hybrid thermal management technology based on air cooling and hybrid composite phase change material (HcPCM) filled finned heat sink for cooling performance of lower to medium heat flux dissipating electronic devices. Two-dimensional numerical simulations are conducted to study the conjugate heat transfer effects of three types of finned heat sink: air-cooled finned heat sink, HcPCM-cooled finned heat sink, and hybrid (air-HcPCM) cooled finned heat sink. A heat sink with a constant volume faction of plate-fins is designed in all cases and simultaneous effects of hybrid nanoparticles and air are investigated to keep the heat sink temperature at safe operating conditions between 40–60°C. The effect of air is incorporated into the heat sink by applying the convective heat transfer coefficient of h c = 10–100W /m 2 .K which tends to create the natural convection and forced convection heat transfer characteristics. The heat flux is varied from 25–40kW /m 2 in the current study. The hybrid nanoparticles of carbon additives (GO and MWCNTs) are dispersed into the RT-35HC, used as a PCM, with a volume fraction of 0% to 6%. Transient simulations are carried out using COMSOL Multiphysics to solve the governing equations for PCM based conjugate heat transfer model. The results showed that forced convection heat transfer improved the cooling performance of the hybrid heat sink compared to natural convection heat transfer. The addition of nanoparticles further enhanced thermal enhancement and uniform melting distribution of PCM inside the finned heat sink. The h c between 30 to 50W/m 2 .K shows optimized values for forced convection heat transfer operating conditions. The volume fraction of 2% of GO+MWCNTs nanoparticles in recommended or optimum concentration for uniform melting of PCM inside the finned heat sink.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ferrite Specification for the Mu2e 300 kHz and 4.4 MHz AC Dipole Magnets

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will measure the rate for neutrinoless-conversion of negative muons into electrons with never-before-seen precision. This experiment will use a pulsed 8 GeV proton beam with pulses separated by 1.7 µs. To suppress beam induced backgrounds to this process, a set of dipoles operating at 300 kHz and 4.4 MHz have been developed that will reduce the fraction of out-of-time protons at the level of 1E-10 or less. Selection of magnetic ferrite material for construction must be carefully considered given the high repetition rate and duty cycle that can lead to excess heating in conventional magnetic material. A model of the electromagnetic and thermal properties of candidate ferrite materials has been constructed. Magnetic permeability, inductance, and power loss were measured at the two operating frequencies in toroidal ferrite samples as well as in the ferrites from which prototype magnets were built. Additionally, the outgassing rates of the ferrite material was measured to determine vacuum compatibility. The outcome of this work is a detailed specification of the electrical and mechanical details of the ferrite material required for this application.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

High Yield, Economical and Environmentally Benign Production of Rare Earth Elements from Coal Ash (Phase II Final Summary Report)

Fly ash stored in landfills and ponds across the United States is an attractive, abundant domestic resource for the cost-effective recovery of rare earth elements (REE) and other critical minerals (CM). Physical Sciences Inc. (PSI) and its team members, Winner Water Services (WWS) and University of Kentucky/Center for Applied Energy Research (UK/CAER) successfully executed a multiphase program that developed technologies and their implementation in a pilot plant. We demonstrated plant operations for cost-effective and environmentally-friendly production of rare earth element oxide (REO) concentrates, and the critical minerals scandium and aluminum (in the forms of salts or oxide products), from coal ash. We also constructed and demonstrated a research-scale (0.5 kg/day) micropilot facility to validate the key physical and chemical processing operations, predict yields, and troubleshoot process bottlenecks. The project team then designed, constructed and operated two decoupled pilot plants: (1) an operational pilot plant for physical separation processes with capacity of 0.4 metric tons per day (tpd), where we optimized processes to produce selected ash fractions as the feedstock for chemical processing and as valuable byproducts such as cenospheres, magnetic ash, and secondary fuel carbon, and (2) an operational pilot plant for chemical ash processing with a capacity of 0.5 tpd that developed optimized processes for the production of: (a) REO concentrates, (b) critical minerals (Sc, Al), and (c) beneficiated ash as a valuable byproduct suitable for cement applications. In Phase I, the project team (with Equinox Chemicals in place of WWS) developed and demonstrated the feasibility of the physical and chemical separation processes, developed the design of a pilot plant, and began the development of a preliminary techno-economic model. In the baseline (initial) Phase II program, the project team developed and demonstrated the above pilot scale plant, producing salable REE concentrates, including Y and Sc (REYSc), plus commercially viable byproducts, using environmentally safe and high-yield physical and chemical enrichment processes. The team successfully demonstrated chemical pilot design, construction, shakedown, and operations of the plant. We produced the Phase II deliverable REYSc concentrate ((50 g of >60 wt.% purity REYSc salts on elemental basis), generated the feed for the Phase II follow-on program, identified processing challenges for future optimizations, and refined the techno-economic model. In the Phase II follow-on program, the project team: (1) developed and demonstrated processes to increase the REE amount by 3X (content basis) and convert the Phase II REE salt mixture to an oxide mixture, (2) produced/delivered >38 g of REO mixture with >85 wt.% purity (elemental basis); (3) developed processes to recover critical minerals scandium and aluminum from intermediate streams; (4) produced/delivered > 1 g of scandium salt mixture with >85 wt. % purity (elemental basis); (5) produced/delivered > 100 g of aluminum oxide type material with >70% wt. purity (elemental basis); and (6) updated the techno-economic model from the baseline Phase II program to assess CAPEX and OPEX of a commercial operation. This program has developed extensive databases on process chemistry, unit operations, plant engineering, and techno-economics that will enable further scale-up toward commercial plant design. Specific future developments will be focused on achieving dramatic savings in energy, reagent usage, and operating costs. The combined results will contribute significantly for maturing the technologies of REE recovery from coal byproducts and promote the establishment of domestic REE and CM supply chains.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Module Testing Procedures and Results for the CMS Phase-2 Outer Tracker Upgrade at Fermilab

The High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) will operate at significantly increased luminosities and is expected to deliver about 3000 $fb^{-1}$ of proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}=14$ TeV over a decade of operation. To maintain efficient tracking and triggering performance under high pileup and radiation conditions, the CMS experiment is upgrading its tracking detector for Phase-2 operations. The upgraded Outer Tracker (OT) will consist of Pixel-Strip (PS) and Strip-Strip (2S) silicon modules capable of providing tracking information to the Level-1 trigger at 40 MHz. Production and qualification of OT modules have been ongoing for about one year across several assembly and testing centers in the US, Europe, India, and Pakistan, requiring extensive testing to ensure stable operation in the HL-LHC environment. Fermilab is responsible for the production and testing of a significant fraction of the OT modules. The testing activities include IV characterization of silicon sensors, noise and pedestal measurements, verification of communication between module components, and burn-in studies using cold-box systems operated under controlled thermal conditions. Results from module testing and qualification studies performed during production will be presented.

Baradia, Sweta [UC, Davis (main)]↗

Utilization of ACE nuclear data file toolkit ACEtk to calculate relative sensitivity coefficients of point-kinetics parameters

Sensitivity and uncertainty methods are quintessential for nuclear criticality safety and experiment design. This type of analysis relies on calculations of sensitivity coefficients; sensitivity coefficients of the effective neutron multiplication factor with respect to some nuclear data are predominantly calculated and used. As a part of the Laboratory Directed Research & Development project EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data) at Los Alamos National Laboratory, sensitivity coefficients of many radiation detector measurement responses with respect to nuclear data were investigated. Specifically, this paper outlines a method to calculate point-kinetics parameters relative sensitivity coefficients with respect to nuclear data. Point-kinetics parameters such as the prompt neutron decay constant, effective delayed neutron fraction, and neutron generation time are especially important to experimenters and reactor operators designing systems with dynamic neutron populations. This method couples capabilities of the ACE (A Compact ENDF) nuclear data file toolkit, ACEtk, with the ability to load cross sections into the radiation transport code Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP). In conclusion, key aspects of optimizing this method for a particular application and sensitivity profiles of the Jezebel criticality experiment are examined and discussed.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Non-locality of mean scalar transport in two-dimensional Rayleigh–Taylor instability using the macroscopic forcing method

The importance of non-locality of mean scalar transport in two-dimensional Rayleigh–Taylor Instability (RTI) is investigated. The macroscopic forcing method is utilized to measure spatio-temporal moments of the eddy diffusivity kernel representing passive scalar transport in the ensemble averaged fields. Presented in this work are several studies assessing the importance of the higher-order moments of the eddy diffusivity, which contain information about non-locality, in models for RTI. First, it is demonstrated through a comparison of leading-order models that a purely local eddy diffusivity is insufficient to capture the mean field evolution of the mass fraction in RTI. Therefore, higher-order moments of the eddy diffusivity operator are not negligible. Models are then constructed by utilizing the measured higher-order moments. It is demonstrated that an explicit operator based on the Kramers–Moyal expansion of the eddy diffusivity kernel is insufficient. An implicit operator construction that matches the measured moments is shown to offer improvements relative to the local model in a converging fashion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Radiative pulsed L-mode operation in ARC-class reactors

Abstract A new ARC-class, highly-radiative, pulsed, L-mode, burning plasma scenario is developed and evaluated as a candidate for future tokamak reactors. Pulsed inductive operation alleviates the stringent current drive requirements of steady-state reactors, and operation in L-mode affords ELM-free access to ∼ 90 % core radiation fractions, significantly reducing the divertor power handling requirements. In this configuration the fusion power density can be maximized despite L-mode confinement by utilizing high-field to increase plasma densities and current. This allows us to obtain high gain in robust scenarios in compact devices with P fus > 1000 MW despite low confinement. We demonstrate the feasibility of such scenarios here; first by showing that they avoid violating 0D tokamak limits, and then by performing self-consistent integrated simulations of flattop operation including neoclassical and turbulent transport, magnetic equilibrium, and radiofrequency current drive models. Finally we examine the potential effect of introducing negative triangularity with a 0D model. Our results show high-field radiative pulsed L-mode scenarios are a promising alternative to the typical steady state advanced tokamak scenarios which have dominated tokamak reactor development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Validation study of RWM stability in DIII-D high- β N plasmas

The n = 1 (n is the toroidal mode number) resistive wall mode (RWM) stability is numerically investigated for two DIII-D high-β N discharges 176440 and 172461, utilizing the MARS-F (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681) and MARS-K (Liu et al 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 112503) codes. Systematic validation efforts are attempted, for the first time, for discharges with very slow or vanishing toroidal flow for a large fraction of the plasma volume. While gaining physics insights in accessing stable operation regime at β N exceeding the Troyon no-wall limit in these slow-rotation experiments, the predictive capability of fluid and non-perturbative magnetohydrodynamic-kinetic hybrid models for the RWM is further confirmed. The MARS-F fluid model, with a strong but numerically tunable viscosity mimicking ion Landau damping of parallel sound waves, finds complete stabilization of the n = 1 RWM in the considered DIII-D plasmas under the experimental flow conditions. Similarly, either full stabilization (for discharge 176440) or marginal stability (for discharge 172461) of the mode is computed by the MARS-K hybrid model, which is first-principle based without free model parameters. In particular, all drift kinetic resonances, including those of thermal and energetic particles, are found to synergistically act to marginally stabilize the RWM in discharge 172461. These MARS-F/K modeling results explain the experimentally observed stable operational regime in DIII-D, as far as the RWM stability is concerned. Extensive numerical sensitivity studies, with respect to the plasma toroidal flow speed as well as the radial location of the resistive wall, are also carried out to further support the validation study.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2022

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: -Discount rate estimation methods and rationale -Data sources used and data limitations -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis A version of this analysis was most recently released in 2022. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Magnetohydrodynamics with physics informed neural operators

Abstract The modeling of multi-scale and multi-physics complex systems typically involves the use of scientific software that can optimally leverage extreme scale computing. Despite major developments in recent years, these simulations continue to be computationally intensive and time consuming. Here we explore the use of AI to accelerate the modeling of complex systems at a fraction of the computational cost of classical methods, and present the first application of physics informed neural operators (NOs) (PINOs) to model 2D incompressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. Our AI models incorporate tensor Fourier NOs as their backbone, which we implemented with the TensorLY package. Our results indicate that PINOs can accurately capture the physics of MHD simulations that describe laminar flows with Reynolds numbers Re ⩽ 250 . We also explore the applicability of our AI surrogates for turbulent flows, and discuss a variety of methodologies that may be incorporated in future work to create AI models that provide a computationally efficient and high fidelity description of MHD simulations for a broad range of Reynolds numbers. The scientific software developed in this project is released with this manuscript.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies: Methods and Results from the Haynesville, Anadarko, and Permian Basins

Significantly reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector can decrease the rate of climate change over the next two decades, buying critical time for a global energy transition. However, emissions inventories that can be used by oil and gas operators and environmental regulators to identify optimal methane emission mitigation strategies are either based on conservative emission factor methods, or are inconsistent between studies due to differences in sampling strategies or survey technologies. We developed a new approach for methane emissions survey design that yields representative basinwide methane emissions inventories by surveying a subset of total assets in a given oil and gas basin. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions that can be reconciled with future studies. We further present results from deploying this strategy in two oil and gas producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma. Aerial surveys were performed in 2023 using the Insight M LeakSurveyor™ technology. Preliminary results from methane emissions detected by Insight M indicate that aerially detected emissions above roughly 30 kg(CH4)/hr by themselves contribute a fractional loss rate of 1.13% of gross gas production across oil and gas operations in the Haynesville Basin, with aerially detected emissions equivalent to 2.67% of gross gas production in the Woodford Shale. We supplement these aerial estimates with modeled emissions that are below the LeakSurveyor’s survey sensitivity using a recently published inventory-based model of methane emissions, which we update for our survey areas. We then combine our aerial detections with modeled emissions to yield methane emission distributions and inventories that incorporate the full range of potential methane emissions from the smallest to the largest. These results can be used to identify the most effective methane mitigation strategies for our study areas, and can be reconciled with future methane emissions surveys that use different technologies.

Sherwin, Evan (ORCID:0000000321804297)↗