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At least 145 records · Page 8

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar Canopy Expansion Project (Final Technical Report)

This project is a parking-lot canopy solar photovoltaic system, consisting of four canopy structures and 1,080 470-watt (W) modules. The nameplate rating of the project is 507.6 kilowatts direct current (kWDC) at Standard Test Condition (STC), and 448 kilowatts alternating current (kWAC). It is interconnected to the existing Tribe-owned medium-voltage micro-grid generation system via a step-up transformer and short medium-voltage line. This project offsets energy usage from more expensive existing sources, specifically the Tribe-owned gas-fired engine generators providing the primary power source for existing Tribal facilities and the electric utility, which provides an alternate source. The solar photovoltaic system is a renewable source, which has the benefit of reducing reliance on fossil-fuel burning sources. By reducing demand on existing Tribe-owned conventional generators, the project has avoided the need to add more conventional generation and has prolonged the lifespan of existing gas-fired engine generators. The project reduced energy costs and reliance on fossil-fuel burning power sources, increasing Tribe-owned generating sources and self-reliance, and prolonging the lifespan of existing generators. A side benefit to the project is the production of dozens of covered parking spaces in the existing parking lot.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials over the last decade. The industry’s current growth trajectory is exponential and plastic production is expected to double or triple by 2050. The rapidly increasing production of plastics and the continued reliance on fossil fuels for production, have contributed to numerous environmental problems and health harms. As a result, plastic pollution has become an increasing threat to natural ecosystems, human health and climate. However, there is a lack of granularity on the contribution of the primary plastics specifically to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impact on the remaining global carbon budget needed to stay below a 1.5°C or 2°C global average temperature rise. In this report, we explore the contribution of primary plastic production to climate change disaggregated by polymer and technology. To this end, we have developed comprehensive bottom-up modeling of GHG emissions from global primary plastic production, with a special focus on polymer value chains. We have analyzed the results under various growth scenarios in the context of carbon budgets compatible with a 1.5°C global trajectory. Modeling includes the material flows of all production stages, processes and technologies used in primary plastic production value chains, including from the extraction of fossil fuels required for production to shaping the final product. We specifically focus on nine major types of fossil fuelbased plastic polymers that are produced and consumed in large quantities: three types of polyethylene (PE) – low-density (LDPE), linear low-density (LLDPE), and high-density (HDPE) – as well as polypropylene (PP); polyethylene terephthalate (PET); polyvinyl chloride (PVC); polystyrene (PS) and other key styrene-based plastics such as styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and polyurethane (PU). Together these account for about 80% of plastics production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Life Cycle Assessment of Bioethanol Production: A Case Study from Poplar Biomass Growth in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Biomass appears to be one of the most prominent renewable resources for biofuels such as bioethanol, mainly due to its better environmental performance compared with fossil fuels. This study addresses a comprehensive environmental performance of bioethanol production, employing empirical data from hybrid poplar grown in the U.S. The study considers 1 MJ as a functional unit and employs a cradle-to-grave approach, which entails the feedstock and harvesting production of poplar, transport to a biorefinery, bioconversion of the biomass process, and fuel use. On average, bioconversion is the main contributor to environmental degradation in all the categories evaluated (77%). The second main contributor is either the feedstock and harvesting production of poplar (17%) or fuel use (6%), depending on the environmental category. Thus, focusing on only one category may induce a misinterpretation of the environmental performance of bioethanol production. Finally, environmental credits in the global warming potential (GWP) category were obtained from the carbon sequestered in the biomass during the growing period and from avoided fossil fuel emissions due to electricity production from a renewable source. This means that the net GWP of the life cycle of bioethanol from poplar biomass is slightly negative (–1.05 × 10 –3 kg CO 2 -eq·MJ –1 ).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Climate Forcing of Bioenergy Feedstocks: Insights From Carbon and Energy Flux Measurements

Bioenergy from biofuels has the potential to slow growing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by reducing fossil fuel use. However, growing bioenergy feedstocks is a land-intensive process. In the United States, the recent expansion of maize bioethanol has presented some environmental costs, prompting the development of several alternative bioenergy feedstocks. These feedstocks, selected in part for traits associated with ecosystem services, may provide opportunities for environmental benefits beyond fossil fuel displacement. We hypothesized that these bioenergy ecosystems will provide direct climatic cooling through their influence on carbon and radiative energy fluxes (i.e., through albedo). To test this hypothesis, we investigated the potential cooling effect of five current or potential bioenergy feedstocks using multi-year records from eddy covariance towers. Perennial feedstocks were carbon sinks, with an annual mean net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of –2.7 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for miscanthus, –0.8 ± 1.1 Mg C ha –1 for switchgrass, and –1.4 ± 0.7 Mg C ha –1 for prairie. In contrast, annual rotations were generally carbon sources, with an annual mean NECB of 2.6 ± 2.4 Mg C ha –1 for maize-soy and 3.2 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for sorghum-soy. Using maize-soy as a baseline, conversion to alternative feedstocks increased albedo, inducing further cooling. This effect was strongest for miscanthus, with –3.5 ± 2.0 W m –2 of radiative forcing, and weakest for sorghum, with –1.4 ± 1.4 W m –2 . When feedstock effects on carbon and albedo were compared using carbon equivalents, carbon fluxes were the stronger ecosystem effect, underscoring the role of perennial species as effective carbon sinks. This work highlights the impact of feedstock choice on ecosystem processes as an element of bioenergy land conversion strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

American Samoa: Unlocking Renewable Energy Potential

Located approximately between Hawaii and New Zealand, American Samoa is the only U.S. territory in the southern hemisphere. American Samoa faces similar climate and energy resilience challenges as other Pacific islands: geographic remoteness, dependence on imported fossil fuels, and increased vulnerability to natural hazards like earthquakes, cyclones, and tsunamis. In 2022, the average electricity price for residential customers in American Samoa was approximately 45 cents/kilowatt-hour (kWh) - almost three times the U.S. average of 15 cents/kWh. Renewable energy represents a small but growing power system contribution, although American Samoa relies almost entirely on imported fossil fuels. The territory possesses substantial solar resources and wind and biomass resource potential. Planned renewable power projects include utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation with battery storage systems.

American Samoa↗

Radiocarbon Fingerprinting Black Carbon Source History in the Himalayas

Abstract Black carbon (BC) is considered as an important contributor to the Himalayan glaciers melt in the past few decades. However, the long‐term source apportionment of BC remains unclear. Here we present the first radiocarbon ( 14 C)‐based annual variation of BC source apportionment in an ice core spanning the period of 1959–2012 drilled from the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, a receptor site of South Asia outflow. We find fossil fuel combustion is a major contribution (73% ± 5%), yet the biomass burning fraction ( ƒ biomass ) has grown from 24% ± 4% to 30% ± 4% since 1990. Intriguingly, we further find the ƒ biomass demonstrating a robust correlation with South Asian wildfires linked to climate oscillations. Thus, for mitigating BC impacts on Himalayan glaciers, South Asia's transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a more efficient and urgent strategy than reducing residential biomass burning.

Wang, Mo [State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau ↗

Catalytic Processes to Accelerate Decarbonization in a Net-Zero Carbon World

Reducing carbon dioxide emissions is one of the critical challenges to mitigate global climate change, which is having detrimental impacts on society and the environment. Fossil fuel combustion in transportation, power generation, and industrial processes is the dominant contributor to carbon emissions. Over the past decades, sustainable solutions and strategies have been investigated and developed to enable decarbonization. Catalysis plays an essential role to address this global challenge by increasing energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, capturing carbon dioxide, and utilizing clean energy sources to displace fossil fuels. In this Review, the role of catalysis in reducing energy demand was discussed, enhancing process efficiency, displacing carbon-intensive feedstocks and products, and therefore, reducing carbon emissions. Here, recent advances in catalyst development were summarized, focusing on applications to enhance industrial processes efficiency and enable utilization of clean energy sources. Emerging approaches in catalysis were reviewed, including the manufacture of iron and steel, direct air capture of CO 2 , production of ethylene, ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuels, plastic recycling, and the synthesis of biobased plastics. The Review was concluded with suggested research directions to achieve a carbon net-zero world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Offshore Wind Project Study (Final Technical Report)

Within the Long Island electric service territory and throughout New York State there is increasing interest in and mandate for increasing clean energy technologies and renewable energy generation while reducing dependency on fossil fuels for electric production with goal of a carbon free system by 2040. This report discusses the implications of the reduction of forecasted load in the Long Island electric service territory and the impact of energy efficiency; increasing reliance of wind and other renewable resources on the transmission system; opportunities for interconnecting these resources; and reductions on the reliance of baseload fossil fueled power facilities over the coming years.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Decarbonizing Building Thermal Systems: A How-to Guide for Heat Pump Systems and Beyond

Buildings account for a substantial portion of carbon emissions, primarily due to the widespread use of fossil fuels in heating systems. Decarbonization of heating is essential to meet climate targets and reduce the environmental impact of buildings. Heat pumps are capable of leveraging renewable energy sources and can provide heating and cooling in an energy-efficient manner. By leveraging heat pump technology, buildings can significantly reduce their carbon footprint, minimize energy consumption, and decrease their reliance on fossil fuels. The design and construction community plays a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to heat pump systems for heating and cooling. However, this transition requires specialized knowledge and expertise. This resource was developed for architects, engineers, and contractors in response to an industry need for a comprehensive technical resource that guides them through the intricacies of heat pump system design, installation, and maintenance. This resource provides detailed information on system sizing, selection of appropriate heat systems, heat sources, and integration with existing building systems. Moreover, it emphasizes best practices for ensuring operational efficiency, system longevity, and reliability. The development of this recourse was a collaborative effort between NREL/DOE Better Buildings Design and Construction Allies and ASHRAE Task Force for Building Decarbonization. This resource is composed of two complimentary portions that will be completed and released on separate time frames. The first portion will be completed and released in 2023, while the second portion will be released in 2024.

building thermal systems↗

Toward sustainable electrochemically mediated separations driven by renewable energy

Environmental pollution, water scarcity, resource shortage, and fossil fuel reliance have all represented threats to a sustainable future. Separation processes play a pivotal role in improving sustainability in fields such as industrial processes, resource recycling, wastewater treatment, and water desalination, among others. Electrochemical systems have gained increased attention as effective separation platforms, not only in performance but also as a potentially energy-efficient approach. However, the reliance on non-renewable energy sources, such as fossil fuels, for electricity generation limits the advancement toward a fully sustainable separation process. Integration of separation processes with eco-friendly renewable energy sources can increase overall sustainability and decrease carbon footprint. Here, in this review, we provide an overview of electrochemical separations and recent efforts to integrate them with renewable energy sources such as heat and solar energy. We discuss electrochemical separations, including electrosorption and electrodialysis, and research to transition these processes to thermoelectrochemical (TEC) and photoelectrochemical (PEC) platforms. Finally, we discuss current challenges and future prospects in direct integration of renewable energy sources with separation processes.

electrochemistry↗

To What Extent Will Decarbonization Deepen the Conversation Between Industry and the Grid?

Decarbonization - the transition away from un-mitigated fossil fuel combustion throughout the economy - requires big changes from both power and process systems. On the power system side, those changes are expected to include large increases in variable generation, e.g., from wind and solar, which has near-zero marginal costs and at large shares can produce infrequent but consequential energy droughts. On the process systems side, industries are investigating their options for direct and indirect electrification, the latter exemplified by replacing fossil fuel inputs with zero-carbon, energy-carrying chemicals like hydrogen and ammonia produced via electrochemical processes. The economic features of these changes within the larger context of power and process systems suggest that their realization could be accompanied by a paradigm shift in how industrial facilities interact with the grid. For example, the dominant type of demand participation in power markets could change from today's focus on load reductions at peak times to a new focus on shifting electricity use, enabled in part by large-scale product storage, to take advantage of renewable energy that would otherwise be curtailed and to avoid consumption during high-price energy droughts. This talk will describe these and other possible design and operational approaches from grid and industrial economic perspectives, culminating in an enumeration of open problems that lie at the interface of today and tomorrow's power and process systems.

co-design↗

Equipment List Comparing Balance of Plant Containing a Heat Pump against a Reference Electricity Generating Plant

Approximately two-thirds of U.S. energy consumption in the industrial and transportation sectors relies on fossil fuels. These sectors require high-quality heat, i.e., thermal energy at very high temperatures, for molecular transformation processes. The Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program aims to assess the economic potential of utilizing nuclear-grade heat from Advanced Reactors (ARs) to meet the high-quality heat demands. By having industrial processes (IPs) supplied with nuclear-generated heat, manufacturers could benefit from more stable and potentially lower energy costs, reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets. The main outcome of the FY24 research was the thermodynamic assessment and gap analysis of steam generation for IP applications. The study completed in June 2024 demonstrated that the required steam temperatures could be achieved by integrating a heat pump into an AR power plant. After identifying the thermal demands of target IPs, multiple balance of plant configurations for the Xe-100 reactor by X-energy, incorporating a heat pump, were analyzed. Their technical feasibilities were assessed, including the design of suitable axial compressors for these applications. Comparative performance analysis showed that thermal efficiency alone is insufficient to evaluate system suitability. To address this, a new indicator (heat factor) was introduced in the report released in September 2024 to quantify the low-quality thermal power needed to produce one unit of high-quality heat for the IP. Results showed that integrating heat pumps into Rankine cycles enables higher steam temperatures, though at the expense of increased thermal energy input. This report builds upon and completes the foundational work previously undertaken. It focuses on the design of two Balance of Plant (BOP) configurations, both based on Rankine energy conversion cycles: “Case 1”, which involves electricity generation only, and “Case 2”, which combines electricity and high-temperature heat generation for industrial use. For each configuration, a comprehensive equipment list was developed, detailing all major components such as turbines, compressors, heat exchangers, pumps, and control systems. These lists will serve as the basis for future comparative cost analyses, with the goal of assessing the number and type of components required to integrate a heat pump into the Rankine cycle and to establish a heat transport system capable of delivering thermal energy from the nuclear plant to an industrial facility. Using the constitutive equations presented in the June 2024 milestone, the operating conditions of all BOP components for both “Case 1” and “Case 2” were evaluated. These parameters—such as temperature, pressure, mass flow rate, and steam quality—served as the basis for calculating the associated thermal and mechanical power flows. The net power required from the heat pump to raise the steam temperature to the target level was also determined. The thermodynamic performance of the configuration was then assessed using the heat factor metric. The key outcome of this analysis is a comparative table that presents the equipment that was used in the “Case 1” and “Case 2” configurations. This study offers a preliminary comparison of the two designs, providing insight into the impact of integrating a heat pump in terms of component requirements and thermal efficiency. This equipment list, together with the evaluated operating conditions, also serves as a foundation for the economic analyses scheduled for the current fiscal year.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Exploring New Ways to Classify Industries for Energy Analysis and Modeling

As the US moves closer to embracing a net zero greenhouse gas emissions position, combustion processes outside the power sector are becoming urgent concerns. Industry is an important end user of energy and relies on fossil fuels used directly for process heating and as feedstocks for a diverse range of applications. Fuel and energy use by industry is heterogeneous, meaning that even a single product group can vary broadly in its production routes and associated energy usage. In the US, the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) serves as the basis for data collection and reporting. In turn, data based on NAICS is the foundation of most US energy modeling. Thus, the effectiveness of NAICS at representing energy use is a limiting condition for plans to improve energy efficiency and alternatives to fossil fuels in industry. Facility-level data to build more detail into heterogeneous sectors is scarce. This work explores alternative classification schemes for industry based on energy use characteristics, and provides a validation of an approach to make facility-level energy use estimates based on publicly available data from the greenhouse gas reporting program. First, several approaches to industrial taxonomies and their usefulness for industrial energy modeling are summarized. Data from Industrial Assessment Centers is analyzed using unsupervised machine learning techniques to detect clusters. Cladistics, an approach from biology, is adapted to energy and process characteristics of industries. A cladogram is presented for evolutionary directions in the iron and steel sector. Cladograms are a promising tool for constructing scenarios and summarizing directions of sectoral innovation. Finally, validation is performed for facility-level energy estimates from the US EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. This validation assists in making this data source available for use in energy modeling. Together, this work explores alternative approaches for categorizing industries in a way that aids understanding energy use, and presenting pathways for the future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Economic Analysis of an Electric Thermal Energy Storage System Using Solid Particles for Grid Electricity Storage

As renewable power generation becomes the mainstream new-built energy source, energy storage will become an indispensable need to complement the uncertainty of renewable resources to firm the power supply. When phasing out fossil-fuel power plants to meet the carbon neutral utility target in the midcentury around the world, large capacity of energy storage will be needed to provide reliable grid power. The renewable power integration with storage can support future carbon-free utility and has several significant impacts including increasing the value of renewable generation to the grid, improving the peak-load response, and balancing the electricity supply and demand. Long-duration energy storage (10–100 hours duration) can potentially complement the reduction of fossil-fuel baseload generation that otherwise would risk grid security when a large portion of grid power comes from variable renewable sources. Current energy storage methods based on pumped storage hydropower or batteries have many limitations. Thermal energy storage (TES) has unique advantages in scale and siting flexibility to provide grid-scale storage capacity. A particle-based TES system has promising cost and performance for the future growing energy storage needs. This paper introduces the system and components required for the particle TES to be technically and economically competitive. A technoeconomic analysis based on preliminary component designs and performance shows that the particle TES integrated with an efficient air-Brayton combined cycle power system can provide power for several days by low-cost, high-performance storage cycles. It addresses grid storage needs by enabling large-scale grid integration of intermittent renewables like wind and solar, thereby increasing their grid value. The design specifications and cost estimations of major components in a commercial scale system are presented in this paper. The cost model provides insights for further development and cost comparison with competing technologies.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations

Abstract. Idealized experiments with coupled climate-carbon Earth system models (ESMs) provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to external forcing and for quantifying climate-carbon feedbacks. Here, we analyze globally-averaged results from idealized esm-flat10 experiments and show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean during a period of constant fossil fuel emissions of 10 Pg C yr−1. We hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. Further, as a simplification, we quantify the relationship between cumulative ocean carbon uptake and changes in ocean heat content using a linear approximation. In this way, changes in oceanic heat content and atmospheric CO2 concentration become interdependent variables, reducing the coupled temperature-CO2 system to just one differential equation. The equation can be solved analytically or numerically for the atmospheric CO2 concentration as a function of fossil fuel emissions. This approach leads to a simplified description of global carbon and climate dynamics, which could be used for applications beyond existing analytical frameworks.

Brovkin, Victor↗

Economic Analysis of a Novel Thermal Energy Storage System Using Solid Particles for Grid Electricity Storage: Preprint

As renewable power generation becomes the mainstream new-built energy source, energy storage will become an indispensable need to complement the uncertainty of renewable resources to firm the power supply. When phasing out fossil-fuel power plants to meet the carbon neutral utility target in the midcentury around the world, large capacity of energy storage will be needed to provide reliable grid power. The integration of renewable power and storage to support future carbon-free utility has several significant and positive impacts including expanding the renewable generation into the grid, improving the peak-load response, and balancing the electricity supply and demand. Long-duration energy storage (10–100 hours duration) can potentially complement the reduction of fossil-fuel baseload generation that otherwise would risk grid security when a large portion of grid power comes from variable renewable sources. Current energy storage methods based on pumped storage hydropower or batteries have many limitations. Thermal energy storage (TES) has unique advantages in scale and siting flexibility to provide grid-scale storage capacity. A particle-based TES system has promising cost and performance for the future growing energy storage needs. This paper introduces the system and components required for the particle TES to be technically and economically competitive. A technoeconomic analysis based on preliminary component designs and performance shows that the particle TES integrated with an efficient air-Brayton combined cycle power system can provide power for several days by low-cost, high-performance storage cycles. It addresses grid storage needs by enabling large-scale grid integration of intermittent renewables like wind and solar, thereby increasing their grid value. The design specifications and cost estimations of major components in a commercial scale system are presented in this paper. The cost model provides insights for further development and cost comparison with competing technologies.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

Design Basis Model for Hosting Small Modular Reactors

An aggressive transition from fossil fuels to other types of energy implies the need to construct a large number of nuclear power plants in the near future. However, the real and perceived risks of nuclear energy remain a significant impediment to this transition. This paper describes a comprehensive work process that combines the rigor of model-based systems engineering (MBSE) with 1) the Idaho National Laboratory's (INL) decades of experience with small reactors and with 2) modern project delivery processes. The objective is to reduce the risk of building new facilities or converting existing facilities to nuclear power generation.

42 ENGINEERING↗