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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting Dark Matter Subhalo Constraints from Stellar Streams using Implicit Likelihood Inference

The evidence for dark matter (DM) remains compelling, although attempts to understand its particle nature remain inconclusive. One promising method to study DM is detecting DM subhalos through their gravitational interactions with stellar streams. In this study, we apply Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to constrain subhalo interaction parameters, including mass, scale radius, velocity, and encounter geometry, from stellar stream kinematics. We generate particle spray simulations based on the Lagrange Cloud stripping technique, focusing on the ATLAS-Aliqa Uma stream as a test case. We train multiple NPE models across multiple observational scenarios, quantifying how kinematic completeness affects inference and forecasting constraints from upcoming surveys including LSST, 4MOST, and 10-year Gaia data. Our results demonstrate that NPE can produce accurate and well-calibrated posteriors. In the idealized case with full 6D coordinates, we achieve subhalo mass uncertainties of 15-20% for a $10^7 \, \mathrm{M_\odot}$ subhalo, with 5D coordinates (excluding radial velocities) achieving similar performance. Under realistic observational conditions, mass uncertainties range from 50% (present-day) to 20-40% (future scenarios), with comparable performance between the photometric-only LSST sample and a smaller sample that includes Gaia proper motions and 4MOST radial velocities. Most notably, we find that velocity bimodality emerges when phase space is poorly sampled, whether due to missing kinematic information or limited stellar tracers. Combining large photometric samples with targeted spectroscopic follow-up can effectively resolves this degeneracy. These results demonstrate the power of implicit likelihood inference for optimizing stellar stream observational strategies and forecasting DM subhalo constraints from upcoming surveys.

Nguyen, Tri [Northwestern U. (main); SkAI, Chicago↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatiotemporal Sequence Forecasting Platform to Advance the Prediction of Changing Spatiotemporal Patterns of CO 2 Concentration by Incorporating Human Activity and Hydrological Extremes

Focal Areas (2): Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components. It describes the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. Specifically, this white paper focuses on the development of a collaborative deep learning platform for evaluating and predicting spatiotemporal relationships between the hydrological and carbon cycles and includes capabilities for considering biogenic and anthropogenic inputs to these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resiliency in numerical algorithm design for extreme scale simulations

Here this work is based on the seminar titled ‘Resiliency in Numerical Algorithm Design for Extreme Scale Simulations’ held March 1–6, 2020, at Schloss Dagstuhl, that was attended by all the authors. Advanced supercomputing is characterized by very high computation speeds at the cost of involving an enormous amount of resources and costs. A typical large-scale computation running for 48 h on a system consuming 20 MW, as predicted for exascale systems, would consume a million kWh, corresponding to about 100k Euro in energy cost for executing 10 23 floating-point operations. It is clearly unacceptable to lose the whole computation if any of the several million parallel processes fails during the execution. Moreover, if a single operation suffers from a bit-flip error, should the whole computation be declared invalid? What about the notion of reproducibility itself: should this core paradigm of science be revised and refined for results that are obtained by large-scale simulation? Naive versions of conventional resilience techniques will not scale to the exascale regime: with a main memory footprint of tens of Petabytes, synchronously writing checkpoint data all the way to background storage at frequent intervals will create intolerable overheads in runtime and energy consumption. Forecasts show that the mean time between failures could be lower than the time to recover from such a checkpoint, so that large calculations at scale might not make any progress if robust alternatives are not investigated. More advanced resilience techniques must be devised. The key may lie in exploiting both advanced system features as well as specific application knowledge. Research will face two essential questions: (1) what are the reliability requirements for a particular computation and (2) how do we best design the algorithms and software to meet these requirements? While the analysis of use cases can help understand the particular reliability requirements, the construction of remedies is currently wide open. One avenue would be to refine and improve on system- or application-level checkpointing and rollback strategies in the case an error is detected. Developers might use fault notification interfaces and flexible runtime systems to respond to node failures in an application-dependent fashion. Novel numerical algorithms or more stochastic computational approaches may be required to meet accuracy requirements in the face of undetectable soft errors. These ideas constituted an essential topic of the seminar. The goal of this Dagstuhl Seminar was to bring together a diverse group of scientists with expertise in exascale computing to discuss novel ways to make applications resilient against detected and undetected faults. In particular, participants explored the role that algorithms and applications play in the holistic approach needed to tackle this challenge. This article gathers a broad range of perspectives on the role of algorithms, applications and systems in achieving resilience for extreme scale simulations. The ultimate goal is to spark novel ideas and encourage the development of concrete solutions for achieving such resilience holistically.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Yield Estimation of the August 2020 Beirut Explosion by Using Physics‐Based Propagation Simulations of Regional Infrasound

Abstract The August 2020 Beirut explosion is the largest single‐fired ammonium nitrate explosion documented in history. The massive explosion excited loud infrasound in the atmosphere, and clear waveforms were recorded by a regional infrasound array at an epicentral distance of 100 km, allowing for accurate measurements of explosion energy. We estimate the explosion size based on the infrasound waveform inversion. Unlike conventional inversions using empirical models, we perform full 3‐D finite‐difference simulations to obtain a physics‐based propagation model for the inversion. Accurate numerical modeling of infrasound is challenging as the propagation is substantially affected by the turbulent atmosphere. Instead of a single deterministic prediction, we provide a range of waveform predictions by running multiple simulations with stochastic weather forecast models, which allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis of numerical modeling and estimated yields. Finally, we expand the yield estimation technique for seismoacoustic analysis and demonstrate the substantial advantage of the joint approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass 2021 Cosmic Frontier White Paper: Cosmology with Millimeter-Wave Line Intensity Mapping

Next-generation tests of fundamental physics and cosmology using large scale structure require measurements over large volumes of the Universe, including high redshifts inaccessible to present-day surveys. Line intensity mapping, an emerging technique that detects the integrated emission of atomic and molecular lines without resolving sources, can efficiently map cosmic structure over a wide range of redshifts. Observations at millimeter wavelengths detect far-IR emission lines such as CO/[CII], and take advantage of observational and analysis techniques developed by CMB experiments. These measurements can provide constraints with unprecedented precision on the physics of inflation, neutrino masses, light relativistic species, dark energy and modified gravity, and dark matter, among many other science goals. In this white paper we forecast the sensitivity requirements for future ground-based mm-wave intensity mapping experiments to enable transformational cosmological constraints. We outline a staged experimental program to steadily improve sensitivity, and describe the necessary investments in developing detector technology and analysis techniques.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging artificial intelligence and advanced food processing techniques for enhanced food safety, quality, and security: a comprehensive review

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative force in addressing the multifaceted challenges of food safety, food quality, and food security. This review synthesizes advancements in AI-driven technologies, such as machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, and computer vision, and their applications across the food supply chain, based on a comprehensive analysis of literature published from 1990 to 2024. AI enhances food safety through real-time contamination detection, predictive risk modeling, and compliance monitoring, reducing public health risks. It improves food quality by automating defect detection, optimizing shelf-life predictions, and ensuring consistency in taste, texture, and appearance. Furthermore, AI addresses food security by enabling resource-efficient agriculture, yield forecasting, and supply chain optimization to ensure the availability and accessibility of nutritious food resources. This review also highlights the integration of AI with advanced food processing techniques such as high-pressure processing, ultraviolet treatment, pulsed electric fields, cold plasma, and irradiation, which ensure microbial safety, extend shelf life, and enhance product quality. Additionally, the integration of AI with emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things, blockchain, and AI-powered sensors enables proactive risk management, predictive analytics, and automated quality control. By examining these innovations' potential to enhance transparency, efficiency, and decision-making within food systems, this review identifies current research gaps and proposes strategies to address barriers such as data limitations, model generalizability, and ethical concerns. These insights underscore the critical role of AI in advancing safer, higher-quality, and more secure food systems, guiding future research and fostering sustainable food systems that benefit public health and consumer trust.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal Learning in Power Modules: Wavelet-Enhanced Forecasting of Thermomechanical Degradation

Detecting internal defects in power electronics packages is critical for their performance and reliability, especially under extreme operating conditions, as these defects can lead to catastrophic failure if not properly addressed. Confocal scanning acoustic microscopy (C-SAM) plays a key role in the nondestructive evaluation of bond layer degradation within a power electronics package by detecting defects such as delamination, voids, and cracks. However, accurately quantifying and predicting these defects from C-SAM images remains a significant challenge due to the low noise-to-signal ratio, which typically arises from both imaging process and bond patterns itself. In this paper, we explore machine learning strategies for processing C-SAM images and providing predictive models of defect growth. We use C-SAM images of sintered copper and sintered silver samples, which are obtained under accelerated thermal experiments, as the representative dataset for our study. We investigate the effect of Fourier transforms and wavelet transforms on these datasets to remove high-frequency noise and address noise across multiple scales with histogram equalization to enhance the contrast and improve the visibility of defects. As a result, defect boundaries can be clearly distinguished, enabling more accurate tracking of their growth over time. We then employ different time-series forecasting algorithms on the denoised images to formulate an image-based lifetime prediction model. Statistical models and deep-learning techniques are trained on images obtained in the early stages of thermal shock, and defect growth in the later stages is predicted. Our work serves as a preliminary attempt to improve the accuracy of lifetime prediction models of power electronics packages, which is critical under extreme operating environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19

We demonstrate a Bayesian method for the "real-time'" characterization and forecasting of partially observed COVID-19 epidemic. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients.The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The data used in this study was sourced before the arrival of the second wave of infection in July 2020. The proposed modeling approach, when applied at the country level, generally provides accurate forecasts at the regional, state and country level. The epidemiological model detected the flattening of the curve in California, after public health measures were instituted.The method also detected different disease dynamics when applied to specific region of New Mexico

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of Scenario Generation Capabilities in the ExaSGD Project

High-fidelity renewable energy scenarios and rare-event high-impact contingencies are essential for modeling operations and infrastructure expansion of the next generation power grids using exascale computing resources. As the ExaSGD project progressed, our capabilities for generating scenarios for modeling wind power output at multiple wind farms significantly improved, evolving from the use of independent random perturbations to importance sampling-based techniques capturing representative spatial-temporal relations. Contingency generation also improved, evolving from standard N-1 techniques to probabilistic models of infrastructure damage resulting from extreme weather events. We review the developments in the realistic intermittent-energy scenario forecasting and extreme-event contingency creation as the ExaSGD project progressed and discuss the future work in these areas.

economic dispatch↗
DOE OSTI2026

HydroDCM: Hydrological Domain-Conditioned Modulation for Cross-Reservoir Inflow Prediction

Deep learning models have shown promise in reservoir inflow prediction, yet their performance often deteriorates when applied to different reservoirs due to distributional differences, referred to as the domain shift problem. Domain generalization (DG) solutions aim to address this issue by extracting domain-invariant representations that mitigate errors in unseen domains. However, in hydrological settings, each reservoir exhibits unique inflow patterns, while some metadata beyond observations like spatial information exerts indirect but significant influence. This mismatch limits the applicability of conventional DG techniques to many-domain hydrological systems. To overcome these challenges, we propose HydroDCM, a scalable DG framework for cross-reservoir inflow forecasting. Spatial metadata of reservoirs is used to construct pseudo-domain labels that guide adversarial learning of invariant temporal features. During inference, HydroDCM adapts these features through light-weight conditioning layers informed by the target reservoir’s metadata, reconciling DG’s invariance with location-specific adaptation. Experiment results on 30 real-world reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art DG baselines under many-domain conditions and remains computationally efficient.

Hu, Pengfei [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000367130950)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Testing real WIMPs with CTAO

We forecast the reach of the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO) to the full set of real representations within the paradigm of minimal dark matter. We employ effective field theory techniques to compute the annihilation cross section and photon spectrum that results when fermionic dark matter is the neutral component of an arbitrary odd and real representation of SU(2), including the Sommerfeld enhancement, next-to-leading log resummation of the relevant electroweak effects, and the contribution from bound states. We also compute the corresponding signals for scalar dark matter, with the exception of the bound state contribution. Results are presented for all real representations from the ~ 3 TeV triplet (or wino), a 3 of SU(2), to the ~ 300 TeV tredecuplet, a 13 of SU(2) that is at the threshold of the unitarity bound. Using these results, we forecast that with 500 hrs of Galactic Center observations and assuming background systematics are controlled at the level of $\mathcal{(O)}$(1%), then should no signal emerge, CTAO could exclude all representations up to the 11 of SU(2) in even the most conservative models for the dark-matter density in the inner galaxy, in both the fermionic and scalar dark matter cases. Assuming the default CTAO configuration, the tredecuplet will marginally escape exclusion, although we outline steps that CTAO could take to test even this scenario. In summary, CTAO appears poised to make a definitive statement on whether real WIMPs constitute the dark matter of our universe.

Models for Dark Matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geostationary Satellite Retrievals with Irradiances and Cloud Properties / Processed Data

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) records sky brightness temperatures and irradiances at several wavelengths. From these the cloud microphysical and optical properties can be routinely retrieved. These properties are derived using the technique proposed by Minnis et al. 2020, and is similar to the technique used for deriving cloud properties from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The derived GOES properties for the duration of the second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2) within the domain are reported here. Nominally the retrieved dataset has a 30- minute temporal and a 9 km spatial resolution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights

In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km 2 . The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing the interactions between particulate matter and cloud properties over two populated cities in Texas using WRF-Chem fine-resolution modeling

Accurate modeling of aerosol-cloud interactions is essential for reliable weather and air quality simulations, given their significant impact on precipitation patterns, cloud dynamics, and aerosol distributions. This study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to examine the impact of enhanced meteorological simulations, achieved through advanced microphysics parameterization supported by data assimilation techniques, on air quality across Texas on August 19 and 20, 2022. We tested four distinct configurations: (1) the Morrison two-moment bulk microphysics scheme, (2) Morrison's with observation nudging, (3) the Spectral Bin Microphysics (SBM), and (4) SBM with observation nudging. While the SBM scheme is known for its detailed representation of aerosol-cloud interactions, our focus was on how improvements in meteorological accuracy translate to more precise air quality simulations. Our findings demonstrated a progressive improvement in simulation accuracy, starting with the Morrison's scheme and further enhanced by adopting the SBM scheme, complemented by incorporating observation nudging. Specifically, the combination of the SBM scheme and the nudging substantially enhanced the model's ability to capture convective precipitation events, as shown by better alignment with NEXRAD radar reflectivity, with R increasing from –0.21 to 0.82, IOA from 0.10 to 0.87, and NMB decreasing from 99% to 34% in Houston. The enhanced meteorology translated into more accurate PM 2.5 concentration simulations, particularly through the more accurate representation of aerosol washout during precipitation events. In Houston, the SBM scheme with nudging improved the model's PM 2.5 simulations significantly, with NMB decreasing from –20% to 5% and IOA improving from 0.43 to 0.61. In San Antonio, improvements were also notable, with NMB improved from –27% to –22%, R increased from 0.48 to 0.82, and IOA increased from 0.66 to 0.86. Furthermore, our results underscore the crucial role of accurate meteorological simulations in refining our understanding of aerosol behaviors in relation to precipitation patterns, directly enhancing the reliability and effectiveness of air quality modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reliable statistics-based detection and investigation of anomalies in a SMART valve system

Reliable anomaly detection and diagnosis are critical for the safe operation of complex engineered systems. This study presents a unified framework that integrates statistical, model-based, and data-driven techniques for anomaly detection and investigation, demonstrated on SMART valve systems in hybrid energy applications. Four detection methods—mean deviation, seasonal extreme studentized deviate, ARIMA forecasting, and matrix profiling—were implemented and compared. Matrix profiling was particularly effective in revealing subtle deviations and hidden relationships among variables. Anomaly investigation was performed by analyzing variable-level and grouped signal profiles, with system topology incorporated to distinguish primary faults from propagated effects. Grouping signals by type enhanced interpretability, enabling accurate localization of anomalies across multi-dimensional datasets. Experimental results confirmed the framework's capability to consistently detect and isolate anomalies while providing actionable insights into system interdependencies. The proposed methodology offers a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution for condition monitoring, with potential applications in safety-critical domains such as nuclear energy, aerospace, and process industries.

ARIMA models↗
DOE OSTI2020

Surveilling Influenza Incidence With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web Traffic Data: Demonstration Using a Novel Dataset

Influenza epidemics result in a public health and economic burden worldwide. Traditional surveillance techniques, which rely on doctor visits, provide data with a delay of 1 to 2 weeks. A means of obtaining real-time data and forecasting future outbreaks is desirable to provide more timely responses to influenza epidemics. This study aimed to present the first implementation of a novel dataset by demonstrating its ability to supplement traditional disease surveillance at multiple spatial resolutions. We used internet traffic data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website to determine the potential usability of this data source. Additionally, we tested the traffic generated by 10 influenza-related pages in 8 states and 9 census divisions within the United States and compared it against clinical surveillance data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutrino Properties with Ground-based Millimeter-wavelength Line Intensity Mapping

Line intensity mapping (LIM) is emerging as a powerful technique to map the cosmic large-scale structure and to probe cosmology over a wide range of redshifts and spatial scales. We perform Fisher forecasts to determine the optimal design of wide-field ground-based millimeter-wavelength LIM surveys for constraining properties of neutrinos and light relics. We consider measuring the auto-power spectra of several CO rotational lines (from J = 2–1 to J = 6–5) and the [C II ] fine-structure line in the redshift range of 0.25 < z < 12. We study the constraints with and without interloper lines as a source of noise in our analysis, and for several one-parameter and multiparameter extensions of ΛCDM. We show that LIM surveys deployable this decade, in combination with existing cosmic microwave background (CMB; primary) data, could achieve order-of-magnitude improvements over Planck constraints on N eff and M ν . Compared to next-generation CMB and galaxy surveys, a LIM experiment of this scale could achieve bounds that are a factor of ~3 better than those forecasted for surveys such as EUCLID (galaxy clustering), and potentially exceed the constraining power of CMB-S4 by a factor of ~1.5 and ~3 for N eff and M ν , respectively. Finally, we show that the forecasted constraints are not substantially affected when enlarging the parameter space, and additionally demonstrate that such a survey could also be used to measure ΛCDM parameters and the dark energy equation of state exquisitely well.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗