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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Center for Bio-Inspired Solar Fuel Production (BISfuel)

The vast majority of the country’s energy needs are met with fossil fuels in the form of natural gas, coal and oil. The use of these fossil fuels contributes to climate change, the unequal distribution of fossil fuel deposits in the earth leads to geopolitical and economic problems, and eventually, fossil fuels will be exhausted. Thus, a renewable, widely distributed, environmentally benign, and inexpensive substitute large enough to meet the needs of society is required. Solar energy meets these criteria. Solar energy may be converted to electricity by photovoltaics, but the need for a continuous energy supply and high-density energy requirements for transportation necessitate technology for storage of energy from sunlight in a fuel. Cost-effective technologies for solar fuel production do not exist, prompting the need for new fundamental science.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impacts of air pollutants from fire and non-fire emissions on the regional air quality in Southeast Asia

Severe haze events in Southeast Asia caused by particulate pollution have become more intense and frequent in recent years, degrading air quality, threatening human health, and interrupting economic and societal activities. Widespread biomass burning activities are a major source of severe haze events in Southeast Asia. On the other hand, particulate pollutants from human activities other than biomass burning also play an important role in degrading air quality in Southeast Asia. In this study, numerical simulations have been conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem) to quantitatively examine the contributions of aerosols emitted from fire (i.e., biomass burning) versus non-fire (including fossil fuel combustion, road and industrial dust, land use, and land change, etc.) sources to the degradation of air quality and visibility over Southeast Asia. These simulations cover a time period from 2002 to 2008 and were respectively driven by emissions from: (a) fossil fuel burning only, (b) biomass burning only, and (c) both fossil fuel and biomass burning. Across ASEAN 50 cities, these model results reveal that 39 % of observed low visibility days can be explained by either fossil fuel burning or biomass burning emissions alone, a further 20 % by fossil fuel burning alone, a further 8 % by biomass burning alone, and a further 5 % by a combination of fossil fuel burning and biomass burning. The remaining 28 % of observed low visibility days remain unexplained, likely due to emissions sources that have not been accounted for. Further analysis of 24-hr PM 2.5 Air Quality Index (AQI) indicates that comparing to the simulated result of the case with stand-alone non-fire emissions, the case with coexisting fire and non-fire PM 2.5 can substantially increase the chance of AQI being in the moderate or unhealthy pollution level from 23 % to 34 %. The premature mortality among major Southeast Asian cities due to degradation of air quality by particulate pollutants is estimated to increase from ~ 4110 per year in 2002 to ~ 6540 per year in 2008. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of certain missing non-fire anthropogenic aerosol sources including anthropogenic fugitive and industrial dusts in causing urban air quality degradation. An exploratory experiment of using machine learning algorithms to forecasting the occurrence of haze events in Singapore is also demonstrated in this study. All these results suggest that besides minimizing biomass burning activities, an effective air pollution mitigation policy for Southeast Asia needs to consider controlling emissions from non-fire anthropogenic sources.

Lee, Hsiang-He (ORCID:0000000251407324)↗
NASA NTRS1980

Intergenerational equity and conservation

The issue of integenerational equity in the use of natural resources is discussed in the context of coal mining conversion. An attempt to determine if there is a clear-cut benefit to future generations in setting minimum coal extraction efficiency standards in mining is made. It is demonstrated that preserving fossil fuels beyond the economically efficient level is not necessarily beneficial to future generations even in terms of their own preferences. Setting fossil fuel conservation targets for intermediate products (i.e. energy) may increase the quantities of fossil fuels available to future generations and hence lower the costs, but there may be serious disadvantages to future generations as well. The use of relatively inexpensive fossil fuels in this generation may result in more infrastructure development and more knowledge production available to future generations. The value of fossil fuels versus these other endowments in the future depends on many factors which cannot possibly be evaluated at present. Since there is no idea of whether future generations are being helped or harmed, it is recommended that integenerational equity not be used as a factor in setting coal mine extraction efficiency standards, or in establishing requirements.

Otoole, R. P.↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Economic Impacts of High Wind Penetration Scenarios in the United States

The U.S. electric sector is experiencing rapid increases in renewable generation with an expectation of continued growth. We examine the impacts of increased wind electricity on the U.S. economy using a hybrid model that links a detailed electric sector model (the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System [ReEDS]) with a computable general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy (the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's U.S. Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model). Increasing wind capacity displaces fossil fuels for electricity generation, which depresses fossil fuel prices and reduces economy-wide CO 2 emissions. Competitive wind deployment in the reference scenario achieves these outcomes with lower electricity prices than a scenario with wind capacity fixed at 2016 levels. Lower fossil fuel and electricity prices benefit low-income households, but the dominant economic impacts are driven by increased electric sector investment and capital returns, which primarily benefit those with higher incomes. Overall, cost-competitive wind provides benefits to the U.S. economy that are initially low but rise beyond 2030 to achieve cumulative welfare and GDP improvements of $110 and $111 billion through 2050. Prescribing additional wind deployment (meeting 35% of demand by 2050) increases post-2030 electricity prices but not more so than keeping wind capacity fixed at 2016 levels. The negative effect of higher prices on welfare, however, is outweighed by higher returns from the additional wind investment. While these changes favor higher income classes, we find economy-wide benefits through 2040. These benefits diminish by 2050, but the cumulative additional gains through 2050, beyond the reference case, are $192 billion in welfare and $150 billion in GDP.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗
DOE OSTI2016

One-pot bioconversion of algae biomass into terpenes for advanced biofuels and bioproducts

In this study, rising demand for transportation fuels, diminishing reserved of fossil oil, and the concerns with fossil fuel derived environmental pollution as well as the green-house gas emission derived climate change have resulted in the compelling need for alternative, sustainable new energy sources(1). Algae-based biofuels have been considered one of the promising alternatives to fossil fuels as they can overcome some of these issues (2-4). The current state-of-art of algal biofuel technologies have primarily focused on biodiesel production through prompting high algal lipid yields under the nutrient stress conditions. There are less interests of using algae-based carbohydrate and proteins as carbon sources for the fermentative production of liquid fuel compounds or other high-value bioproducts(5-7).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗
DOE OSTI2016

Variable Nuclear Electricity with Base-Load Reactor, Closed Brayton Power Cycle and Firebrick Resistance-Heated Energy Storage (Fires)

Power cycle choices are determined by markets and available technologies. Two changes are occurring in the electricity sector. First, the world is beginning to move away from fossil fuels because of concerns about climate change. What replaces fossil fuels for variable electricity production? Second, there have been extraordinary technological advances in gas turbine technology. The changes in market requirements and technology suggest the need to reexamine nuclear power cycles. One option is to couple high-temperature base-load nuclear reactors to closed Brayton cycles (helium, nitrogen, etc.) with Firebrick Resistance-Heated Energy Storage (FIRES). The reactor operates at base-load but not the power cycle. When electricity prices are low, firebrick is electrically heated to high temperatures using base-load electricity and/or electricity from the grid. The gas turbine can use nuclear heat for base-load operation and produce added peak electricity by sending the compressed heated gas through hot firebrick after nuclear heating to further raise power cycle gas temperatures and power output from the turbine-creating a nuclear plant with a thermodynamic topping (NUTOP) cycle. If such cycles can be developed, they would increase plant revenue and enable a low-carbon electricity grid. Such cycles can be coupled to Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors (FHRs), molten salt reactors (MSRs), high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs), sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) and lead-cooled fast reactors (LFRs). We discuss (1) market changes, (2) previous work on Nuclear Air-Brayton Combined cycles (NACC) with base-load reactors and variable power to the electricity grid and (3) options for closed Brayton cycles with variable power while the reactor operates at base load. Market (customer) requirements ultimately drive selection of power cycles. A low-carbon electricity grid requires dispatchable nuclear electricity to replace the traditional role of fossil fuels in the electricity grid. While reactors can be operated at part load, this is expensive for a capital-intensive low-operating-cost technology. Brayton power cycles with FIRES have the potential capability to provide that variable electricity while the reactor operates at base load to (1) improve economics and (2) enable a zero-carbon electrical grid. Open Brayton cycles have been investigated. Work has now started on developing closed Brayton cycles with FIRES. Only limited work has been done to date has been done for closed cycles with FIRES. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Energy Conversion Loop: Process Heat Applications of Hybrid Energy Systems

Climate change due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has prompted a shift from fossil fuel energy to other sources for electricity production such as nuclear, solar or wind. These alternatives since no GHG is produced, and no fossil fuels are burned. Both nuclear and other renewable energy sources are recognized as reliable technologies in the United States and around the world. However, they all have a unique set of challenges. Two of the most common renewable energy sources are solar and wind. A particular shortcoming of these two options is the variability of the energy produced; that is they are highly dependent on weather. Many times wind and/or solar power systems are not able to meet the electric demand during peak times. Replacing fossil fuels with nuclear energy is an option (non fossil fuel) for clean energy production. Two primary challenges with using nuclear energy are; wasted heat energy and the lack of load following capabilities. First, heat energy is wasted in the production stream from steam that is created while cooling the core of a nuclear reactor. This steam is initially used in turbines where the electricity is produced. However, once the steam passes through the turbines it is cooled, re-condensed to water, and reused. Large amounts of heat energy are released in the form of heat to the environment (either to the atmosphere or as waste water) and go unused. Secondly, nuclear energy is primarily a baseload power producer - the power output does not fluctuate with power demands, or is not load following. A nuclear hybrid energy system (NHES) may be a solution to the two issues mentions above. Traditional hybrid energy systems (HES) are a combination of two or more energy producers working together to create different energy commodities such as fuel or electricity. To create a NHES, normal use of the reactor for electricity production is combined with renewable power sources to meet the peak power demand of the grid. When electricity demand is high the renewable source and NPP are used in conjunction to meet the demand. When the electricity demand is low the renewable power is used to produce electricity while the NPP operates at full capacity. Rather than sending the excess heat to the cooling towers the excess energy created by the NPP (heat) is diverted to another industrial process.There is no need to decrease the power coming out of the NPP. This research proposal addresses harvesting unused thermal energy from a NPP during normal operations and in times of low power demand.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Some aspects of understanding changes in the global carbon cycle

The collective character of carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and other pools is partially revealed by comparing the record of CO2 concentration beginning in 1958 with estimates of the releases from fossil fuels during this period. In analyzing the secular increase in CO2 concentration induced by fossil fuel use, the atmosphere is generally treated as a single well-mixed reservoir; however, to study finer structure in the CO2 records, the influence of atmospheric circulation must be more carefully considered. The rate of carbon uptake by the oceans, the primary sink for fossil fuel CO2, is assessed more reliably than influences on the atmosphere due to interactions with other pools. Models of the global carbon cycle are being substantially refined while data that reflect the response of the cycle to fossil fuel use and other perturbations are being extended.

Emanuel, W. R.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Heat Electrification: The Latest Research in Europe

Heat represents roughly 50% of the European Union's (EU ) final energy demand (Figure 1). But in the past, heat was largely absent in the energy debate, given the traditional focus on energy supply data, which only shows heat fuels, mainly fossil fuels and a small fraction of electricity. The potential synergies between heat and electricity in the transition to a clean energy system have been recognized in the EU's 2016 heat strategy. The increasingly decarbonized electricity system powered by renewable electricity can provide clean heat supply, while the flexibility of heat demand can support electricity peak management and the integration of variable renewable energies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment for Guiding Bioenergy Pathway Development

The Center for Bioenergy Innovation (CBI) is a bioenergy research center recently launched by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science's Biological and Environmental Research program. CBI's objective is to enable innovations across the bioenergy supply chain through development of poplar and switchgrass phenotypes, microorganisms for consolidated bio-processing (CBP), in which biomass fermentation and conversion is accomplished in a single unit operation, and lignin valorization processes. In addition to basic science, CBI's activities involve the application of techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to the bioenergy pathways under study. TEA and LCA is used to quantify the impacts that research and development breakthroughs have on the economic viability and sustainability of a bioenergy pathway, and to identify drivers for reducing costs and improving sustainability through targeted research efforts. Combining TEA and LCA allows for understanding the economic and sustainability benefits and trade-offs of these integrated bioenergy systems. The focus of this presentation is a parameterized, integrated TEA-LCA model, which will be discussed along with an application to bioenergy pathways currently under study. The model combines data and information developed by CBI researchers into a superstructure of potential bioenergy pathways and their life cycles. Model parameters include feedstock species and phenotype, farming, harvesting, storage and transportation practices, and the microbes used for biomass conversion and lignin valorization, among others. The parameterized TEA-LCA model allows for the rapid quantification of pathway economic and sustainability metrics such as minimum fuel selling price, payback period, fossil fuel consumption and net greenhouse gas emissions. To demonstrate the model, economic and sustainability metrics for a bioenergy pathway utilizing CBP will be quantified and compared to the same metrics for a conventional bioenergy pathway. Results of the comparison will be used to identify and prioritize high-impact research areas within the CBP pathway. fermentation and conversion is accomplished in a single unit operation, and lignin valorization processes. In addition to basic science, CBI's activities involve the application of techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to the bioenergy pathways under study. TEA and LCA is used to quantify the impacts that research and development breakthroughs have on the economic viability and sustainability of a bioenergy pathway, and to identify drivers for reducing costs and improving sustainability through targeted research efforts. Combining TEA and LCA allows for understanding the economic and sustainability benefits and trade-offs of these integrated bioenergy systems. The focus of this presentation is a parameterized, integrated TEA-LCA model, which will be discussed along with an application to bioenergy pathways currently under study. The model combines data and information developed by CBI researchers into a superstructure of potential bioenergy pathways and their life cycles. Model parameters include feedstock species and phenotype, farming, harvesting, storage and transportation practices, and the microbes used for biomass conversion and lignin valorization, among others. The parameterized TEA-LCA model allows for the rapid quantification of pathway economic and sustainability metrics such as minimum fuel selling price, payback period, fossil fuel consumption and net greenhouse gas emissions. To demonstrate the model, economic and sustainability metrics for a bioenergy pathway utilizing CBP will be quantified and compared to the same metrics for a conventional bioenergy pathway. Results of the comparison will be used to identify and prioritize high-impact research areas within the CBP pathway.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs

This paper evaluates potential changes in the power system associated with sustained growth in wind generation in the United States to 35% of end-use demand by 2050; Wiser et al. (2016) evaluate societal benefits and other impacts for this same scenario. Under reference or central conditions, the analysis finds cumulative wind capacity of 404 gigawatts (GW) would be required to reach this level and drive 2050 incremental electricity rate and cumulative electric sector savings of 2% and 3% respectively, relative to a scenario with no new wind capacity additions. Greater savings are estimated under higher fossil fuel costs or with greater advancements in wind technologies. Conversely, incremental costs are found when fossil fuel costs are lower than central assumptions or wind technology improvements are more-limited. Through 2030, the primary generation sources displaced by new wind capacity include natural gas and coal-fired generation. By 2050, wind could displace other renewables. Incremental new transmission infrastructure totaling 29 million megawatt-miles is estimated to be needed by 2050. In conjunction with related societal benefits, this work demonstrates that 35% wind energy by 2050 is plausible, could support enduring benefits, and could result in long-term consumer savings, if nearer-term (pre-2030) cost barriers are overcome; at the same time, these opportunities are not anticipated to be realized in their full form under 'business-as-usual' conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing Non-Food Grade Brassica Biofuel Feedstock Cultivars with High Yield, Oil Content, and Oil Quality that are Suitable for Low Input Production Dryland Systems (Final Report)

The U.S. uses a substantial amount of fossil fuel as an energy source for a wide range for functions including home heating, agriculture and transportation. In the transportation sector, diesel and jet fuel are consumed at a rapid rate, and alternative liquid energy is being investigated globally and nationally to reduce our dependence on fossil fuel and reduce the impact of our carbon footprint on global climate change. Non-food Brassica crops have the potential of producing high oil yield (over 250 gal acre-1) and have oil quality highly desirable for use as biodiesel or bio jet fuel. Developing oilseed feedstock Brassica cultivars with higher seed and oil yield, with high oil quality and with resistance to pathogens, that can be grown with few chemical inputs will helping break our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce importation of fossil fuels. While some oilseed Brassicas have been grown on a small scale for many years in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), adoption has been limited, and the potential of the crops have not been realized or even fully investigated. This report summarizes the results of a study to develop superior non-food grade winter (B. napus) and spring (B. napus and B. juncea) oilseed cultivars suitable for a range of PNW, and other US environments with high resistance to the biotic and abiotic stresses suitable for high-quality biofuel feedstocks. In conducting this work, genome-wide association selection was used to dissect the genetic architecture of industrial Brassica oilseed germplasm for yield, quality, and resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses. A genome-wide bioinformatics approach was used to identify putative PRR (pattern recognition receptor) - type resistance genes that confer durable resistance to blackleg. A novel transgenic approach was developed to generate resistant non-food oilseed lines using PPR genes Br1033 and Br8486. These genes were inserted into regionally adapted oilseed cultivars.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Towards a Global Aerosol Climatology: Preliminary Trends in Tropospheric Aerosol Amounts and Corresponding Impact on Radiative Forcing between 1950 and 1990

A global aerosol climatology is needed in the study of decadal temperature change due to natural and anthropogenic forcing of global climate change. A preliminary aerosol climatology has been developed from global transport models for a mixture of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols from fossil fuel burning, including also contributions from other major aerosol types such as soil dust and sea salt. The aerosol distributions change for the period of 1950 to 1990 due to changes in emissions of SO2 and carbon particles from fossil fuel burning. The optical thickness of fossil fuel derived aerosols increased by nearly a factor of 3 during this period, with particularly strong increase in eastern Asia over the whole time period. In countries where environmental laws came into effect since the early 1980s (e.g. US and western Europe), emissions and consequently aerosol optical thicknesses did not increase considerably after 1980, resulting in a shift in the global distribution pattern over this period. In addition to the optical thickness, aerosol single scattering albedos may have changed during this period due to different trends in absorbing black carbon and reflecting sulfate aerosols. However, due to the uncertainties in the emission trends, this change cannot be determined with any confidence. Radiative forcing of this aerosol distribution is calculated for several scenarios, resulting in a wide range of uncertainties for top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcings. Uncertainties in the contribution of the strongly absorbing black carbon aerosol leads to a range in TOA forcings of ca. -0.5 to + 0.1 Wm (exp. -2), while the change in aerosol distributions between 1950 to 1990 leads to a change of -0.1 to -0.3 Wm (exp. -2), for fossil fuel derived aerosol with a "moderate" contribution of black carbon aerosol.

Tegen, Ina↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using facility-level emissions data to estimate the technical potential of alternative thermal sources to meet industrial heat demand

Industry is frequently highlighted as the world's largest energy-using end-use sector. More specifically, the demand for heat drives much of the demand for energy and fossil fuels in the industrial sector. We conduct a top-down analysis to characterize historical energy and fossil fuel use in 14 top-GHG-emitting industries in the United States, their heat demand requirements, and the potential to substitute heat from geothermal, solar thermal (including concentrating technologies), and small modular nuclear reactors to meet these needs while reducing fossil-fuel use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We base this analysis on publicly-available facility-level GHG emissions and fuel-combustion data, in addition to assumed requirements for process temperature, to demonstrate the potential value to industry energy analysts of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program data. We estimate on a county level that the adoption of these alternative heat sources could have reduced 2015 fossil-fuel use by approximately 31% and combustion GHG emissions by approximately 24%. The most extensive substitution opportunities are in the ethyl alcohol manufacturing and wet corn-milling industries; petroleum refining represents the largest absolute emissions mitigation potential. This initial top-down analysis of substitution potential does not consider more detailed technical factors, including resource availability that will influence the actual deployment of alternative energy technologies. The analysis also does not consider the economic or market factors, including the expected cost to build and operate these generators. We do assume process byproducts that are extensively used for combustion fuels would not be good candidates for substitution for alternative energy generators. Based on these caveats, our analysis could be considered a top-range estimate for this mix of heat generators and industry heat demands. Any subsequent analysis of these alternate energy sources should increase the level of technical, economic, and policy detail.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-cost crushed-rock heat storage with oil or salt heat transfer

The demand for variable electricity and heat is met by fossil-fuel power plants because the power plant capital costs and the cost of storing fossil fuels are low. A low-carbon economy requires replacement of the storage function of fossil fuels to provide variable heat and electricity as needed. The Crushed Rock Ultra-large Stored Heat (CRUSH) system is a new technology with the goal to provide heat storage at an incremental capital cost of $2–4/kWh at scales of 10 s to 100 s of GWhs that enables economic daily to multi-week storage. CRUSH can be coupled to nuclear power plants, concentrated solar power (CSP) plants and thermal energy batteries to provide variable electricity and heat on demand. Sensible heat is stored in crushed rock—the lowest-cost heat-storage material. Heat is transferred to and from the crushed rock using nitrate salt or heat-transfer oils but these fluids do not store heat. Heat from a nuclear reactor, CSP plant or conversion of low-price electricity into heat is used to heat the salt or oil. The hot fluid is poured over the crushed rock, trickles downward by gravity through the rock, heats the rock and is collected by the drain pans under the crushed rock. To recover heat cold salt or oil is poured over hot crushed rock, trickles down by gravity while being heated and is collected by the drain pans under the crushed rock. The system design and engineering trade-offs are described. The technology is in the early stages of development.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

climate↗