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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Net-zero energy building design and life-cycle cost analysis with air-source variable refrigerant flow and distributed photovoltaic systems

Net-zero energy building (NZEB) design has been gaining widespread acceptance as a major driver to reach feasible long-term goals of energy reductions in a building sector for the coming decades. Accordingly, net-zero energy targets for commercial buildings have been specified by federal and/or local government agencies in U.S. Although moving toward NZEB goals has technically feasible long-term advantages, economic issues are one of primarily concerns by building owners and designers for the application of advanced building technologies in NZEB design of their retrofit or new building construction. However, the lack of life cycle cost (LCC) data has still hindered reliable understanding of adopting NZEB design by building owners in a cost-effective manner. In response to this gap, this study conducts life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) of NZEB design with an energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system and a solar power generation system. Here, to enable NZEB design, an air-source VRF heat pump (HP) type system is considered for energy-efficient HVAC equipment in an office building model with a grid-tied photovoltaic (PV) system. Results reveal that the LCC of NZEBs varies primarily due to a combined effect of annual site EUIs, on-site power generation, and cost-items of each location in U.S. climates. Some hot and mild climate zones in the U.S. represent that LCC values of NZEBs are considerably lower. In contrast, some other cold zones result in unattractive LCC values for NZEBs, caused by a combined effect of relatively lower potential of on-site PV electricity generation and city cost indices. Yet, with subsidized financing by the federal government for PV installation costs, LCC values of NZEBs become significantly attractive in most climate locations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Challenges in the post-licensing stage of U.S. hydropower development: Current status and some potential solutions

The issuance of a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) license is an important milestone in the development process of new U.S. hydropower projects. The complexity and uncertain timeline of the licensing process have been often cited as a key deterrent to new hydropower installations in the United States. However, very little attention has been paid to post-licensing timelines and attrition rates. This article explores the challenges faced by developers in bringing their FERC-licensed hydropower projects to the construction stage. Post-licensing activities to be completed before starting construction include obtaining additional permitting from other federal or state agencies, completing the technical design, securing financing, and in most cases, negotiating a power purchase agreement. For the set of projects that obtained a FERC license between 2007 and 2018, we assembled a dataset—combining information from FERC dockets and responses from a questionnaire to developers—to calculate attrition rates and development timelines and to examine the reasons for delays and cancellations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Combining anaerobic digestion and hydrothermal liquefaction in the conversion of dairy waste into energy: A techno economic model for New York state

There is increasing global interest and policies being enacted to lower greenhouse gas emissions, especially from the agricultural sector. In the U.S. for example, states with large dairy operations may combine proven manure valorization technologies, such as anaerobic digestion and hydrothermal liquefaction. Sustainable manure treatment would increase the recovery of energy and other useful co-products, namely biogas, biocrude oil and hydro-char as well as lower the environmental impacts. In this study, the economic feasibility of implementing a centralized bioenergy system in New York State was investigated. Here, the feasibility of this transformation depends on many factors, including capital costs, discount rates, and other financing arrangements, electricity selling prices, incentives and farm sizes and locations. For a large-scale implementation in New York State accounting for nearly 50% of the state’s dairy farms, our model of a distributed, hybrid anaerobic/hydrothermal system was shown to treat 590 million liters of wet manure per day, producing 607 million kWh of electricity, 162,000 L of biocrude oil and 117,000 kg of hydro-char per day. Electricity selling price is a critical factor. Increasing the electricity selling price from wholesale ($\$0.06$ /kWh) to retail ($\$0.18$ kWh) increased the net present value from $\$395$ million to $1.5 billion (considering a 40-year project lifetime).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Off-the-shelf deep learning is not enough, and requires parsimony, Bayesianity, and causality

Abstract Deep neural networks (‘deep learning’) have emerged as a technology of choice to tackle problems in speech recognition, computer vision, finance, etc. However, adoption of deep learning in physical domains brings substantial challenges stemming from the correlative nature of deep learning methods compared to the causal, hypothesis driven nature of modern science. We argue that the broad adoption of Bayesian methods incorporating prior knowledge, development of solutions with incorporated physical constraints and parsimonious structural descriptors and generative models, and ultimately adoption of causal models, offers a path forward for fundamental and applied research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy. Herein, we present an integrated framework to explore near-term (to 2030) transition risks and longer-term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5–4 °C levels of long-term warming. By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several pathways with a 2 °C target demonstrates that transition risks also depend on technological, policy and socio-economic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of policies and business models on income equity in rooftop solar adoption

Low- and moderate-income (LMI) households are less likely to adopt rooftop solar photovoltaics (PVs) than higher-income households in the United States. As the existing literature has shown, this dynamic can decelerate rooftop PV deployment and has potential energy justice implications, in light of the cost-shifting between PV and non-PV households that can occur under typical rate structures and incentive programmes. Here we show that some state policy interventions and business models have expanded PV adoption among LMI households. Additionally, we find evidence that LMI-specific financial incentives, PV leasing and property-assessed financing have increased the diffusion of PV adoption among LMI households in existing markets and have driven more installations into previously underserved low-income communities. By shifting deployment patterns, we posit that these interventions could catalyse peer effects to increase PV adoption in low-income communities even among households that do not directly benefit from the interventions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complexity-calibrated benchmarks for machine learning reveal when prediction algorithms succeed and mislead

Abstract Recurrent neural networks are used to forecast time series in finance, climate, language, and from many other domains. Reservoir computers are a particularly easily trainable form of recurrent neural network. Recently, a “next-generation” reservoir computer was introduced in which the memory trace involves only a finite number of previous symbols. We explore the inherent limitations of finite-past memory traces in this intriguing proposal. A lower bound from Fano’s inequality shows that, on highly non-Markovian processes generated by large probabilistic state machines, next-generation reservoir computers with reasonably long memory traces have an error probability that is at least $$\sim 60\%$$ ∼ 60 % higher than the minimal attainable error probability in predicting the next observation. More generally, it appears that popular recurrent neural networks fall far short of optimally predicting such complex processes. These results highlight the need for a new generation of optimized recurrent neural network architectures. Alongside this finding, we present concentration-of-measure results for randomly-generated but complex processes. One conclusion is that large probabilistic state machines—specifically, large $$\epsilon$$ ϵ -machines—are key to generating challenging and structurally-unbiased stimuli for ground-truthing recurrent neural network architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The potential of carbon markets to accelerate green infrastructure based water quality trading

Green infrastructure solutions can improve in-stream water quality in lieu of building electricity-consuming gray infrastructure. Permitted under the United States Clean Water Act, these programs allow regulated utilities to trade point-source water quality obligations with non-point source mitigation efforts in the watershed. Carbon financing can provide an incentive for water quality trading. Here we combine data on impaired waters, treatment technologies, and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in the Contiguous United States, and compare traditional treatment technologies to alternative green infrastructure. We find green infrastructure could save $\$15.6$ billion dollars, 21.2 terawatt-hours of electricity, and 29.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year while sequestering over 4.2 million tonnes CO2e per year over a 40 year time horizon. Green infrastructure solutions may have the potential to generate $\$679$ million annually in carbon credit revenue (at $\$20$ per credit), which represents a unique opportunity to help accelerate water quality trading.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

CSP-Plant Modeling Guidelines and Compliance of the System Advisor Model (SAM)

Accurately modeling risks, costs, and electricity output is essential to the financing and advancement of concentrating solar power projects. To address this need, a group of CSP experts created a guideline document, titled SolarPACES Guideline for Bankable STE Yield Assessment [1]. To make this information more accessible and allow stakeholders to test specific models against the recommendations, the guidelines have been condensed into a spreadsheet-based checklist. The checklist was applied to NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) software, providing useful feedback to both the checklist group and the SAM development team. This study showed strong agreement between SAM and the guidelines, demonstrated the use of the guidelines in model validation, and resulted in several recommended improvements to SAM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

CSP Plant Construction, Start-Up, and O&M Best Practices Study

There are currently 90 operational CSP plants of 10 MW or larger located throughout the world, primarily in Spain, U.S., MENA region, South Africa, and China. In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded Solar Dynamics, under subcontract to NREL, to investigate and document lessons learned and best practices associated with the construction, start-up, and operations phases of a majority of these plants. DOE funding for the effort was leveraged by additional funds provided through SolarPACES and the World Bank. This information was obtained by interviewing key stakeholders representing CSP plant owners, operators, construction companies, vendors, technical advisors and financers of these systems, and will be published as an NREL Technical Report at the completion of the project. This paper provides an overview of key challenges facing today's CSP parabolic trough and power tower technologies during all the phases mentioned above.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid renewable energy systems

In the pursuit of ecologically sustainable and resilient energy systems, increasingly more attention is being devoted to a diversity of energy generation and storage methods. As the landscape of generation technology gains nuance and complexity, a wide-ranging set of technical questions has emerged, touching on topics that range from control and optimization of hybrid systems to finance and economic viability to multi-fidelity modeling and scientific machine learning. In the context of this special issue, hybrid renewable energy systems are any systems that consider the combined dynamics of more than one form of generation, storage, or grid subsystem. Research endeavors have delved into improving the flexibility of energy systems by utilizing existing resources, introducing novel operational strategies, deploying enhanced renewable forecasts, and exploring emerging technologies. In conclusion, the interconnection among various sectors has garnered heightened attention, not only due to the provision of additional tradable energy products but also for furnishing flexible headroom to system operators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

An overview of the fusion landscape

Fusion is very attractive as a potential energy source, but it is taking a long time to develop into a commercial reality. Given the challenges of climate change and the need for dispatchable power as a complement to renewable energy sources that vary on daily and seasonal timescales, there is great enthusiasm internationally to accelerate the commercialization of fusion energy. Forty-five private companies around the globe, with total financing of $7.1 billion, are engaged in the development of fusion energy. In the United States, the White House has put forward a “Bold Decadal Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy,” with bipartisan support from Congress. To develop commercial fusion energy, certain goals must be met. In conclusion, a wide variety of approaches are being pursued to meet these goals.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tokamak Energy’s pre-concept design for a fusion power plant: an overview of ST-E1

Climate change and rapidly rising energy demand, driven in part by artificial intelligence and data-centre growth, create an urgent need for stable, low-carbon, and abundant power. Fusion is a promising long-term solution, yet its commercialisation faces a fundamental paradox in today’s investment environment: pilot plants are essential to de-risk physics, engineering, and operations, but their limited lifetime energy output and high upfront costs make them difficult to finance. This paper presents Tokamak Energy’s response: ST-E1, a pre-concept design for a low-aspect-ratio tokamak power plant engineered specifically to overcome this challenge. ST-E1 is designed from the outset for phased operation—pilot and commercial phases, with an upgrade phase in between—with emphasis on commercial viability, maintainability, nuclear engineering, modularity, and upgradability. A key design principle is the deliberate separation of long-lived assets, such as the magnet cage and vacuum vessel, from replaceable in-vessel systems. This provides an attractive and credible investment approach to generate operational data and de-risk key technologies while preserving most capital-intensive assets for later commercial phases. The architecture supports continuous optimisation toward high net electric power (targeting 800–1000 MW net electric), a normalised capital expenditure of $\$$ 12–14k/kW of net electric power, and high availability (targeting > 80%). A tokamak core with a 5 m major radius, aspect ratio of 2.3, and on-plasma axis toroidal field of 5.25 T was selected to meet these objectives. This paper summarises the ST-E1 design philosophy, principal features, and development methodology. It introduces a Focus Collection of 11 papers detailing the pre-concept design of the entire tokamak and corresponding plant.

ST-E1↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Momentum to phase out unabated coal use is growing globally. This transition is critical to meeting the Paris climate goals but can potentially lead to large amounts of stranded assets, especially in regions with newer and growing coal fleets. Here we combine plant-level data with a global integrated assessment model to quantify changes in global stranded asset risks from coal-fired power plants across regions and over time. With new plant proposals, cancellations, and retirements over the past five years, global net committed emissions in 2030 from existing and planned coal plants declined by 3.3 GtCO 2 (25%). While these emissions are now roughly in line with initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, they remain far off track from longer-term climate goals. Progress made in 2021 towards no new coal can potentially avoid a 24% (503 GW) increase in capacity and a 55% ($520 billion) increase in stranded assets under 1.5 °C. Stranded asset risks fall disproportionately on emerging Asian economies with newer and growing coal fleets. Recent no new coal commitments from major coal financers can potentially reduce stranding of international investments by over 50%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Careers at National Laboratories

It’s common for math majors and professors to be aware of possible careers outside of teaching, especially jobs like data science, finance, actuarial science, and some government agencies. But from my experience talking with undergraduates, graduate students, and professors in mathematics, careers at national laboratories are not as well-known. It’s my goal in this article to give you some background and history of the national lab system, a glimpse into the work mathematicians do, and finally some insight into getting a job at a national lab.

career development, recruitment↗
DOE OSTI2025

LinkML: an open data modeling framework

Background Scientific research relies on well-structured, standardized data; however, much of it is stored in formats such as free-text lab notebooks, nonstandardized spreadsheets, or data repositories. This lack of structure challenges interoperability, making data integration, validation, and reuse difficult. Findings LinkML (Linked Data Modeling Language) is an open framework that simplifies the process of authoring, validating, and sharing data. LinkML can describe a range of data structures, from flat, list-based models to complex, interrelated, and normalized models that utilize polymorphism and compound inheritance. It offers an approachable syntax that is not tied to any one technical architecture and can be integrated seamlessly with many existing frameworks. The LinkML syntax provides a standard way to describe schemas, classes, and relationships, allowing modelers to build well-defined, stable, and optionally ontology-aligned data structures. Once defined, LinkML schemas may be imported into other LinkML schemas. These key features make LinkML an accessible platform for interdisciplinary collaboration and a reliable way to define and share data semantics. Conclusions LinkML helps reduce heterogeneity, complexity, and the proliferation of single-use data models while simultaneously enabling compliance with FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data standards. LinkML has seen increasing adoption in various fields, including biology, chemistry, biomedicine, microbiome research, finance, electrical engineering, transportation, and commercial software development. In short, LinkML makes implicit models explicitly computable and allows data to be standardized at their origin. LinkML documentation and code are available at https://linkml.io/.

AI-ready data↗
DOE OSTI2025

Classical optimization with imaginary-time block encoding on quantum computers: The MaxCut problem

Optimization problems in finance, physics, and computer science are typically very hard to tackle in classical computing; quantum computing could help speed up computations and provide efficient methods for tackling large problems. Typically, to treat a problem with a quantum computer, the optimal solution is cast as the ground state of a diagonal Hamiltonian. Here, we develop a method, called imaginary-time evolution block encoding (ITE-BE), based on a recent imaginary-time algorithm, which requires no variational parameter optimization, as all parameters can be derived analytically from the target Hamiltonian. We also demonstrate that our method can be successfully combined with other quantum algorithms such as the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA). For illustration, here we study the MaxCut problem. We find that the QAOA ansatz increases the postselection success of ITE-BE, and shallow QAOA circuits, when boosted with ITE-BE, achieve better performance than deeper QAOA circuits. For the special case of the transverse initial state, we adapt our block-encoding scheme to allow for a deterministic application of the first layer of the circuit.

Zhong, Dawei [University of Southern California, L↗