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At least 145 records · Page 8

A Risk-Constrained Multi-Stage Decision Making Approach to the Architectural Analysis of Mars Missions

This paper presents a novel risk-constrained multi-stage decision making approach to the architectural analysis of planetary rover missions. In particular, focusing on a 2018 Mars rover concept, which was considered as part of a potential Mars Sample Return campaign, we model the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) phase and the rover traverse phase as four sequential decision-making stages. The problem is to find a sequence of divert and driving maneuvers so that the rover drive is minimized and the probability of a mission failure (e.g., due to a failed landing) is below a user specified bound. By solving this problem for several different values of the model parameters (e.g., divert authority), this approach enables rigorous, accurate and systematic trade-offs for the EDL system vs. the mobility system, and, more in general, cross-domain trade-offs for the different phases of a space mission. The overall optimization problem can be seen as a chance-constrained dynamic programming problem, with the additional complexity that 1) in some stages the disturbances do not have any probabilistic characterization, and 2) the state space is extremely large (i.e, hundreds of millions of states for trade-offs with high-resolution Martian maps). To this purpose, we solve the problem by performing an unconventional combination of average and minimax cost analysis and by leveraging high efficient computation tools from the image processing community. Preliminary trade-off results are presented.

entry, descent, and landing (EDL)↗

Historical Power Outages of the United States and the Social Vulnerability Index

Several works have been documented in the literature to study the societal effect of power outages and to analyze their correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Because the SVI is calculated based on the summed rank of multiple vulnerability factors for environmental hazards, it can include factors irrelevant to power outages caused by extreme events. This work performs a detailed correlation analysis for social vulnerability and power outages by considering different SVI themes (e.g., socioeconomic status, household composition, racial and ethnic minority status, and housing and transportation) and power outages with and without a threshold for extreme weather events. Although there is some relation between specific themes and aspects of power outages and the SVI in the results, there is no strong distinction between power outage durations and low vs. high SVI values. These results point to the need for further research that grounds the specific factors and methods used to develop SVI and related indices to energy services and power systems disruptions.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

Mathematical modelling of flow distribution in the human cardiovascular system

The paper presents a detailed model of the entire human cardiovascular system which aims to study the changes in flow distribution caused by external stimuli, changes in internal parameters, or other factors. The arterial-venous network is represented by 325 interconnected elastic segments. The mathematical description of each segment is based on equations of hydrodynamics and those of stress/strain relationships in elastic materials. Appropriate input functions provide for the pumping of blood by the heart through the system. The analysis employs the finite-element technique which can accommodate any prescribed boundary conditions. Values of model parameters are from available data on physical and rheological properties of blood and blood vessels. As a representative example, simulation results on changes in flow distribution with changes in the elastic properties of blood vessels are discussed. They indicate that the errors in the calculated overall flow rates are not significant even in the extreme case of arteries and veins behaving as rigid tubes.

NASA Center JSC↗

Image-Subtraction Photometry of Variable Stars in the Globular Clusters NGC 6388 and NGC 6441

We have applied Alard's image subtraction method (ISIS v2.1) to the observations of the globular clusters NGC 6388 and NGC 6441 previously analyzed using standard photometric techniques (DAOPHOT, ALLFRAME). In this reanalysis of observations obtained at CTIO, besides recovering the variables previously detected on the basis of our ground-based images, we have also been able to recover most of the RR Lyrae variables previously detected only in the analysis of Hubble Space Telescope WFPC2 observations of the inner region of NGC 6441. In addition, we report five possible new variables not found in the analysis of the EST observations of NGC 6441. This dramatically illustrates the capabilities of image subtraction techniques applied to ground-based data to recover variables in extremely crowded fields. We have also detected twelve new variables and six possible variables in NGC 6388 not found in our previous groundbased studies. Revised mean periods for RRab stars in NGC 6388 and NGC 6441 are 0.676 day and 0.756 day, respectively. These values are among the largest known for any galactic globular cluster. Additional probable type II Cepheids were identified in NGC 6388, confirming its status as a metal-rich globular cluster rich in Cepheids.

Corwin, Michael T.↗

Some Applications of SiFSAP for Wildfires, Weather and Atmospheric Dynamics Studies

The Single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP) derived from Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on SNPP and JPSS have a spatial resolution ( ~14.5 km) better than most global weather and climate models. Most recent improvement in the quality of these products enables us to use these high-resolution observation-based sounding data for air quality, weather and atmospheric dynamics studies. A few cases studies through a synergistic use of SiFSAP from S-NPP and J-1 and the reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2 will be presented, which include a process-oriented analysis of (1) a stratospheric intrusion (SI) event occurred on June 11-13, 2017 in the southwestern US, (2) one extreme cold air break (CAO) episode occurred on 27-31 January 2019 across much of the US Midwest and its impact from stratospheric downward transport, and (3) dynamic transport of carbon monoxide (CO) associated with Australia’s unprecedented fire from the end of 2019 to early 2020. These examples will demonstrate the value of SiFSAP for weather, atmospheric dynamics, air quality, wildfires studies and for model evaluations.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗

Vermont Wildland Fires: Investigating the Role of Antecedent Conditions and Recent Environmental Trends in Exacerbating Fire Risk and Potential in Vermont

Under a changing climate, increases in dry conditions and extreme heat events are projected to exacerbate wildfire risk in the northeastern U.S. In recent years, Vermont has observed higher annual temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, increased annual precipitation, extreme flood events, and decreased snowfall. The mechanisms through which environmental factors contribute to increased fire risk in humid environments, such as Vermont, are poorly understood. The team partnered with the National Weather Service, the Vermont Division of Forests, and the University of Vermont to investigate phenological trends and antecedent conditions influencing wildland fire risk. For the phenological analysis, from 2001 to 2023, vegetation data, phenological dates, and snow water equivalent (SWE) values were accessed from Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9OLI-2, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), respectively. For the antecedent condition analysis, from 2008 to 2023, soil moisture, Environmental Stress Index, wind speed, minimum relative humidity, and daily precipitation data were obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), SERVIR, gridMET Wind, gridMET Humidity, and NClimGrid, respectively. The study found that green-up dates over the study period remain relatively stable, while snowmelt dates appear increasingly variable. Minimum relative humidity was the most significant environmental variable correlated with wildfire risk in Vermont. Results from this study will inform the National Weather Service's preparation of fire forecasts before prescribed burns and support community outreach by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

Wildland Fire↗

Prospects for silvicultural enhancement of fire resistance in mesic westside forests of the Pacific Northwest

Increasing wildfire activity in mesic, temperate Pacific Northwest forests west of the Cascade Range crest has stimulated interest in understanding whether alternative forest management practices could reduce risk of stand-replacing fire. To explore how management can enhance fire resistance in these forests and assess tradeoffs among resistance enhancement, carbon sequestration and storage, and economic returns, we conducted 40-year simulations of stand development with BioSum, a framework for conducting landscape analysis with the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), utilizing a statistically representative and spatially balanced sample of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots. Simulation outcomes under business-as-usual silviculture were contrasted with fire-aware silviculture, and treatment optimization logic was developed and applied to represent landscape-scale outcomes under business-as-usual and fire-focused management scenarios. Simulation results indicate that fire-aware prescriptions and fire-focused management can meaningfully enhance stand- and landscape-scale fire resistance of westside forests under less than extreme fire weather, but at the cost of lower economic returns and reduced net carbon storage and sequestration over the 40-year analysis window. Shifting from business-as-usual regeneration harvests with short rotations to fire-aware, episodic selection harvest improved fire resistance the most, especially in young privately-owned forests, and with only modest tradeoffs in carbon and economic outcomes. While fire-aware treatments generally reduced net present value from forest operations over business-as-usual, most treatments still generated positive net present value and could be implemented without subsidy. Fire-aware prescriptions that removed and utilized non-merchantable harvest residues instead of burning them, via either pile or broadcast burning, partially mitigated carbon emissions associated with fire-aware treatments, with about the same improvement in fire resistance. Given the currently limited institutional and financial capacity to implement fire resistance enhancing treatments at scale, the insights from this analysis may aid managers seeking to elevate fire resistance to prioritize where and how to manage.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Plasmapause Equatorial Shape Determination via the Minimum L Algorithm: Description and Evaluation

The Minimum L Algorithm for determining the equatorial shape of the plasmapause using NASA IMAGE Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) imagery is described and analyzed. The algorithm operates without human intervention given a single EUV image in which the plasmasphere silhouette boundary has been identified. For each line of sight (LOS) through pixels on the 13 plasmasphere silhouette boundary, the algorithm first finds all magnetic dipole 14 field lines intersected by the LOS and then returns as the plasmasphere s boundary the field line with the minimum L value. The analysis considers the reasonableness, applicability, and accuracy of the algorithm and contrasts it with 17 the well-known Edge Algorithm is also introduced. Application of all three algorithms to real EUV imagery is demonstrated.

Newman, Timothy S.↗

Robust, nonlinear, high angle-of-attack control design for a supermaneuverable vehicle

High angle-of-attack flight control laws are developed for a supermaneuverable fighter aircraft. The methods of dynamic inversion and structured singular value synthesis are combined into an approach which addresses both the nonlinearity and robustness problems of flight at extreme operating conditions. The primary purpose of the dynamic inversion control elements is to linearize the vehicle response across the flight envelope. Structured singular value synthesis is used to design a dynamic controller which provides robust tracking to pilot commands. The resulting control system achieves desired flying qualities and guarantees a large margin of robustness to uncertainties for high angle-of-attack flight conditions. The results of linear simulation and structured singular value stability analysis are presented to demonstrate satisfaction of the design criteria. High fidelity nonlinear simulation results show that the combined dynamics inversion/structured singular value synthesis control law achieves a high level of performance in a realistic environment.

Adams, Richard J.↗

Statistical analysis of direct-strike lightning data (1980 to 1982)

Electromagnetic measurements are being made during direct lightning strikes by NASA Langley Center using a specially instrumented F-106B aircraft. The research is to aid refinement, characterization, and understanding of the lightning-aircraft interaction process and the lightning hazards to aircraft. Statistical methods are applied to characterize some aspects of the lightning data obtained from 176 strikes to the aircraft. Specific attention is given to the problem of estimating the upper extreme quantiles of the distributions of peak-to-peak values for currents and rates of change in the magnetic and flux densities. A formal treatment via a general location-scale family of models allows the estimation method to be adapted to the realized shapes the distributions. The shapes are examined by probability plotting methods.

Lee, L. D.↗

Distributions of eight meteorological variables at Cape Kennedy, Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

Extreme values, median values, and nine percentile values are tabulated for eight meteorological variables at Cape Kennedy, Florida and at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. The variables are temperature, relative humidity, station pressure, water vapor pressure, water vapor mixing ratio, density, and enthalpy. For each month eight hours are tabulated, namely, 0100, 0400, 0700, 1000, 1300, 1600, 1900, and 2200 local time. These statistics are intended for general use for the space shuttle design trade-off analysis and are not to be used for specific design values.

Graves, M. E.↗

Plasmapause Equatorial Shape Determination via the Minimum L Algorithm: Description and Evaluation

Algorithms for determination of the equatorial shape of the plasmapause using NASA IMAGE Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) imagery are considered. Focus is on the Minimum L Algorithm, which operates without human intervention given a single EUV image in which the plasmasphere silhouette boundary has been identified. For each line of sight (LOS) through pixels on the plasmasphere silhouette boundary, the algorithm first finds all magnetic dipole field lines intersected by the LOS and then returns as the plasmasphere's boundary the field line with the minimum L value. An analysis of the reasonableness, applicability, and accuracy of the algorithm is presented, and it is contrasted with the well-known Edge Algorithm [Roelof and Skinner, 2000]. A revised version of the Edge Algorithm is also introduced. Application of all three algorithms to real EUV imagery is demonstrated.

Wang, Cuilan↗

NASA Ground-based Layered Pressure Vessels Materials Report

A significant portion of Layered Pressure Vessels (LPVs) manufactured for NASA in the 1950s and ’60s are of non-code construction. These vessels were constructed to the standards of individual manufacturers rather than an industry or consensus standard and often contain legacy or proprietary materials, which have poor or no characterization. Obtaining correct material properties is the first step in assuring vessel safety and predicting life and critical failure modes before they happen. This report details the efforts of the LPV Project related to material properties and characterization. The goal in testing materials from deconstructed vessels was to provide material characterization utilizing modern test methods that would give a strong probabilistic base as an option for future analysis. ASTM E1820, Standard Test Method for Measurement of Fracture Toughness was used for fracture toughness; ASTM E1921, Standard Test Method for Determination of Reference Temperature, T0, for Ferritic Steels in the Transition Range for transition temperature; and ASTM E647, Standard Test Method for Measurement of Fatigue Crack Growth Rates for fatigue crack growth. Particular focus was placed on determination of transition temperature through evaluation of the T0 reference temperature in accordance with ASTM E1921. Transition temperature testing allows for a probabilistic analysis of vessel materials that may be operating at temperatures below the transition from ductile tearing to brittle cleavage failure. This test method was not available at the time of construction and has proved invaluable to the characterization of older ferritic steels. The values reported are specific to the largest body of materials found in the current NASA fleet, but do not claim to be all inclusive. As demonstrated in this report, some materials contain extreme lot-to-lot variability. In some cases, this can be comfortably bounded by worst case probabilistic methods, however it is always recommended that vessel specific data be collected in as much depth as possible to ensure correct assumptions and avoid unduly restricting vessel usage.

Layered Pressure Vessel↗

FIP, FIT or MAD? Analysis of High Signal-to-Noise ASCA Spectra of Coronal Stars

ASCA (Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics) and EUVE (Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer) spectra of active late-type stars imply that Fe and other medium-Z elements may be 2-10 times less abundant in the coronae of these stars than in their photo-spheres (the MAD effect). These deficiencies may be related to the solar FIP (First Ionization Potential) effect, in which Fe and other low First Ionization Potential elements appear enriched in the solar corona over their photospheric values. The FIP effect is time variable. As part of this proposal, the K0-2 III star, 29 Draconis, was observed in X rays with the ASCA spacecraft in order to measure the coronal abundances of this star at three different stellar longitudes over its 31-day rotation cycle. The goal of the observations was to learn whether coronal abundances, and hence coronal magnetic structure, vary across the surface of 29 Draconis in phase with the motion of dark star-spots across its disk. A second task included in this project was a systematic reanalysis of 18-20 deep exposures of active coronal stars, which were extracted from the ASCA public archives. New thermal models were computed for each spectrum in order to derive coronal metal abundances for each star. The goal of this survey was to search for possible trends in coronal abundance with various stellar parameters such as rotation, chromospheric activity levels at ultraviolet and optical wavelengths, or evolutionary stage.

Simon, Theodore↗

Application of Statistically Derived CPAS Parachute Parameters

The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Analysis Team is responsible for determining parachute inflation parameters and dispersions that are ultimately used in verifying system requirements. A model memo is internally released semi-annually documenting parachute inflation and other key parameters reconstructed from flight test data. Dispersion probability distributions published in previous versions of the model memo were uniform because insufficient data were available for determination of statistical based distributions. Uniform distributions do not accurately represent the expected distributions since extreme parameter values are just as likely to occur as the nominal value. CPAS has taken incremental steps to move away from uniform distributions. Model Memo version 9 (MMv9) made the first use of non-uniform dispersions, but only for the reefing cutter timing, for which a large number of sample was available. In order to maximize the utility of the available flight test data, clusters of parachutes were reconstructed individually starting with Model Memo version 10. This allowed for statistical assessment for steady-state drag area (CDS) and parachute inflation parameters such as the canopy fill distance (n), profile shape exponent (expopen), over-inflation factor (C(sub k)), and ramp-down time (t(sub k)) distributions. Built-in MATLAB distributions were applied to the histograms, and parameters such as scale (sigma) and location (mu) were output. Engineering judgment was used to determine the "best fit" distribution based on the test data. Results include normal, log normal, and uniform (where available data remains insufficient) fits of nominal and failure (loss of parachute and skipped stage) cases for all CPAS parachutes. This paper discusses the uniform methodology that was previously used, the process and result of the statistical assessment, how the dispersions were incorporated into Monte Carlo analyses, and the application of the distributions in trajectory benchmark testing assessments with parachute inflation parameters, drag area, and reefing cutter timing used by CPAS.

Romero, Leah M.↗

Isentropic mixing in the Arctic stratosphere during the 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 winters

Dynamic isolation of the winter Arctic circumpolar vortex during 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 (the second and third northern hemisphere winters of the UARS mission) is studied using quasi-horizontal isentropic trajectories. Ejection of vortex air and entrainment of mid-latitude air into the vortex are quantified and compared with climatological values obtained from the analysis of 16 Arctic winters. A number of unusual features of both winters are discussed. The most notable features are the anomalous isolation experienced by the vortex during December 1992 and the unusual degree of isolation and persistence of the vortex during February and March of both years. the 1992-1993 winter season is the most consistently isolated vortex on record. Only during January 1993, when entrainment is large, is this pattern of extreme isolation broken.

Dahlberg, Steven P.↗

Thermoplastic Space Point Design (TSPD) Tall Tower Lunar Thermal Analysis

The Thermoplastics Development for Exploration Applications (TDEA) project seeks to advance NASA’s thermoplastic composites capabilities by developing structurally efficient joining solutions for large-scale space structures to support NASA’s future exploration missions. A key objective is to develop and understand advanced thermoplastic joining techniques relevant to space environments and applicable to unitized and/or reconfigurable composite structures. The TDEA project uses NASA Langley’s Tall Lunar Tower (TLT) concept as a target application for the design and development of in-space assembled thermoplastic composites. TLT is a 50-meter-tall tower constructed on the lunar surface near the south pole. The tower’s height at this location on the moon allows for extended durations of incident solar flux which can be used to generate power via photovoltaic arrays. The thermal environment present on lunar south pole represents a challenging environment for any space-based asset. This study provides an overview of the analysis techniques used to determine the temperature extremes, gradients, and timelines of a tall composite tower over a one-year duration at the Shackleton Connecting Ridge. The developed thermal model includes tower and lunar surface elements with anisotropic and temperature-dependent material properties and incorporates a solar vector orbit with time-varying solar flux. Study topics include: a comparison between the effects of simplified lunar surface topologies on thermal results, prediction of surface temperature values versus Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) flight data, and tower structural-thermal deformation.

Lunar↗

Data, model inputs, and analysis scripts associated with a manuscript on stream intermittency controls across spatial scales in Pacific Northwest watersheds

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript "Hydroclimatic Memory and Watershed Template Shape Stream Intermittency: Multi-scale Attribution Using Process-based Simulation and Explainable ML" by Niroula et al. (2026), submitted to Water Resources Research (WRR). The study investigates the dominant controls on stream intermittency across local, reach, and watershed scales using a coupled process-based simulation and explainable machine-learning framework. Long-term daily simulations from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) were used to generate wetness states and ponded-depth responses over river-corridor cells. These ATS outputs were then aggregated across scales and used to train XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to quantify the relative importance of hydroclimatic forcings, watershed template attributes, and antecedent-memory effects in shaping intermittency behavior. The analysis is carried out for three contrasting Pacific Northwest watersheds: Oak Creek (OCW), American River Watershed (ARW), and H.J. Andrews (HJA). Across these testbeds, the package contains ATS-ready watershed inputs, ATS run configuration and selected output files, model-evaluation data products, intermittency-analysis datasets, machine-learning target-feature tables, SHAP outputs, and notebooks used to organize, analyze, and visualize results. At a high level, the package documents a workflow in which ATS provides the physically based simulation backbone and explainable machine learning is used as a post-processing attribution tool. The contents are intended to support interpretation of the manuscript figures and results, provide context for how intermittency metrics were generated at multiple scales, and preserve the key artifacts needed to understand and reuse the analysis workflow. The package contains a high-level directory summary file (`summary.txt`) and four main content folders (1) `evaluation_plots` contains evaluation figures and supporting evaluation datasets; (2) `intermittency_plots` contains intermittency-focused analysis notebook and prepared datasets; (3) `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` contains ML training inputs, SHAP outputs, and figure-generation notebooks; and (4) `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` contains ATS model setup materials, forcing inputs, geometry, and selected run files. More specifically, the `evaluation_plots` folder contains the notebook used for ATS evaluation plotting and site-specific evaluation datasets. These include evapotranspiration and water-balance products for three watersheds, as well as an Oak Creek field-measurement discharge file. The `intermittency_plots` folder contains the notebook used for intermittency analysis and the prepared datasets used to analyze intermittent and non-intermittent wetness behavior across the study watersheds. The `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` folder contains notebooks and outputs for the machine-learning and explainability workflow. This includes the main XGBoost and SHAP notebook(s), a beeswarm plotting notebook, target-feature tables for machine-learning training, SHAP summary tables, and per-sample SHAP value archives. The `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` folder contains ATS-related watershed inputs and supporting materials. This includes mesh and shape products, ATS-readable LAI and meteorological forcing inputs, selected ATS spinup and transient-run files, and a watershed workflow example notebook. Subdirectories are organized by watershed where applicable.All files are .cpg (codepage files), .csv (comma-separated values), .dbf (database files), .exo (Exodus mesh format), .h5 (HDF5 format), .ipynb (Jupyter notebooks), .pkl (Python pickle), .prj (projection files), .sh (shell scripts), .shp (shapefile geometry), .shx (shapefile index), .txt (text files), or .xml (markup data).

Advanced Terrestrial Simulator↗