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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Application of the AI2 Climate Emulator to E3SMv2's Global Atmosphere Model, With a Focus on Precipitation Fidelity

Abstract Can the current successes of global machine learning‐based weather simulators be generalized beyond 2‐week forecasts to stable and accurate multiyear runs? The recently developed AI2 Climate Emulator (ACE) suggests this is feasible, based upon 10‐year simulations with a network trained on output from a physics‐based global atmosphere model using a grid spacing of approximately 110 km and forced by a repeating annual cycle of sea‐surface temperature. Here we show that ACE, without modification, can be trained to emulate another major atmospheric model, EAMv2, run at a comparable grid spacing for at least 10 years with similarly small climate biases—a prerequisite to wider applicability. With an analysis that combines multiple temporal, spatial, and frequency domain perspectives, we show that ACE faithfully represents the spatiotemporal structure of EAMv2 precipitation and related variables. Finally, we show that a pretrained ACE network is able to adapt to a new global climate model simulation data set with 10 fewer training steps than when starting from random initialization, all while still maintaining low levels of climate bias. Further analysis of these fine‐tuning experiments reveal ACE's intriguing ability to interpolate between distinct global climate models.

Duncan, James P. C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tokamak divertor plasma emulation with machine learning

Abstract Future tokamak devices that aim to create conditions relevant to power plant operations must consider strategies for mitigating damage to plasma facing components in the divertor. One of the goals of MAST-U tokamak operations is to inform these considerations by researching advanced divertor configurations that aid stable plasma detachment. Machine design, scenario planning and detachment control would all greatly benefit from tools that enable rapid calculation of scenario-relevant quantities given some input parameters. This paper presents a method for generating large, simulated scrape-off layer data sets, which was applied to generate a data set of steady-state Hermes-3 simulations of the MAST-U tokamak. A machine learning model was constructed using a Bayesian approach to hyperparameter optimisation to predict diagnosable output quantities given control-relevant input features. The resulting best-performing model, which is based on a feedforward neural network, achieves high accuracy when predicting electron temperature at the divertor target and carbon impurity radiation front position and runs in around 1 ms in inference mode. Techniques for interpreting the predictions made by the model were applied, and a high-resolution parameter scan of upstream conditions was performed to demonstrate the utility of rapidly generating accurate predictions using the emulator. This work represents a step forward in the design of machine learning-driven emulators of tokamak exhaust simulation codes in operational modes relevant to divertor detachment control and plasma scenario design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implicit quantile networks for emulation in jet physics

Abstract The ability to model and sample from conditional densities is important in many physics applications. Implicit quantile networks (IQN) have been successfully applied to this task in domains outside physics. In this work, we illustrate the potential of IQNs as components of emulators using the simulation of jets as an example. Specifically, we use an IQN to map jets described by their 4-momenta at the generation level to jets at the event reconstruction level. The conditional densities emulated by our model closely match those generated by Delphes , while also enabling faster jet simulation.

Kronheim, Braden (ORCID:0000000307040972)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emulating inconsistencies in stratospheric aerosol injection

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) would involve the addition of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere to reflect part of the incoming solar radiation, thereby cooling the climate. Studies trying to explore the impacts of SAI have often focused on idealized scenarios without explicitly introducing what we call ‘inconsistencies’ in a deployment. A concern often discussed is what would happen to the climate system after an abrupt termination of its deployment, whether inadvertent or deliberate. However, there is a much wider range of plausible inconsistencies in deployment than termination that should be evaluated to better understand associated risks. In this work, we simulate a few representative inconsistencies in a pre-existing SAI scenario: an abrupt termination, a decade-long gradual phase-out, and 1 year and 2 year temporary interruptions of deployment. After examining their climate impacts, we use these simulations to train an emulator, and use this to project global mean temperature response for a broader set of inconsistencies in deployment. Our work highlights the capacity of a finite set of explicitly simulated scenarios that include inconsistencies to inform an emulator that is capable of expanding the space of scenarios that one might want to explore far more quickly and efficiently.

Farley, Jared (ORCID:0000000322062272)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Master equation emulation and coherence preservation with classical control of a superconducting qubit

Open quantum systems are a topic of intense theoretical research. The use of master equations to model a system's evolution subject to an interaction with an external environment is one of the most successful theoretical paradigms. General experimental tools to study different open system realizations have been limited, and so it is highly desirable to develop experimental tools which emulate diverse master equation dynamics and give a way to test open systems theories. In this paper we demonstrate a systematic method for engineering specific system-environment interactions and emulating master equations of a particular form using classical stochastic noise in a superconducting transmon qubit. We also demonstrate that non-Markovian noise can be used as a resource to extend the coherence of a quantum system and counteract the adversarial effects of Markovian environments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Training and projecting: A reduced basis method emulator for many-body physics

Here, we present the reduced basis method as a tool for developing emulators for equations with tun able parameters within the context of the nuclear many-body problem. The method uses a basis expansion informed by a set of solutions for a few values of the model parameters and then projects the equations over a well-chosen low-dimensional subspace. We connect some of the results in the eigenvector continuation literature to the formalism of reduced basis methods and show how these methods can be applied to a broad set of problems. As we illustrate, the possible success of the formalism on such problems can be diagnosed beforehand by a principal component analysis. We apply the reduced basis method to the one-dimensional Gross-Pitaevskii equation with a harmonic trap ping potential and to nuclear density functional theory for 48 Ca, achieving speed-ups of more than x150 and x250, respectively, when compared to traditional solvers. The outstanding performance of the approach, together with its straightforward implementation, show promise for its application to the emulation of computationally demanding calculations, including uncertainty quantification.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precise cosmological constraints from BOSS galaxy clustering with a simulation-based emulator of the wavelet scattering transform

For this study, we perform a reanalysis of the BOSS CMASS DR12 galaxy dataset using a simulation-based emulator for the wavelet scattering transform (WST) coefficients. Moving beyond our previous works, which laid the foundation for the first galaxy clustering application of this estimator, we construct a neural net-based emulator for the cosmological dependence of the WST coefficients and the 2-point correlation function multipoles, trained from the state-of-the-art suite of abacussummit simulations combined with a flexible halo occupation distribution (HOD) galaxy model. In order to confirm the accuracy of our pipeline, we subject it to a series of thorough internal and external mock parameter recovery tests, before applying it to reanalyze the CMASS observations in the redshift range 0.46 < z < 0.57. We find that a joint WST+2-point correlation function likelihood analysis allows us to obtain marginalized 1⁢σ errors on the Λ⁢ CDM parameters that are tighter by a factor of 2.5–6, compared to the 2-point correlation function, and by a factor of 1.4–2.5 compared to the WST-only results. This corresponds to a competitive 0.9%, 2.3% and 1% level of determination for parameters ω c , ⁢σ 8 &n s , respectively, and also to a 0.7% and 2.5% constraint on derived parameters h and ƒ⁡(z)⁢⁢σ 8 ⁡(z), in agreement with the Planck 2018 results. Our results reaffirm the constraining power of the WST and highlight the exciting prospect of employing higher-order statistics in order to fully exploit the power of upcoming stage-IV spectroscopic observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation of quantum correlations by classical dynamics in a spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ Heisenberg chain

We simulate the dynamical spin structure factor (DSSF) 𝒮⁡(𝑞,𝜔) of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg antiferromagnetic chain using classical simulations. By employing Landau-Lifshitz Dynamics, we emulate quantum correlations through temperature-dependent corrections, including rescaling of magnetic dipoles and renormalization of exchange interactions. Here, our results closely match Quantum Monte-Carlo calculations for 𝑘 B⁢ 𝑇/𝐽≳1, extending the applicability of classical dynamics to the challenging case of gapless excitations. At higher temperatures, our simulations comply with general predictions for uncorrelated paramagnetic fluctuations in the infinite temperature limit. Entanglement witnesses derived from the quantum-equivalent DSSF act as sensitive diagnostics for the quantum-to-classical crossover. Their reliability stems from their dependence on spectral features alone, enabling classical dynamics to emulate quantum thresholds without genuine entanglement. This framework also reproduces transverse spin correlations in finite magnetic fields, in agreement with quantum simulations. Together, our results establish quantum-corrected classical dynamics as a scalable and predictive tool for interpreting scattering experiments and exploring quantum correlations in strongly correlated spin systems.

Inelastic neutron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of Microgrid Algorithms using At-Scale Simulation and Emulation Real-Time (ASSERT) Framework

This paper presents a novel framework for validating microgrid algorithms using a At-Scale Simulation and Emulation Real-Time (ASSERT) setup. The proposed universal microgrid validation framework was developed at Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform at National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, USA. As the number of intercommunicating devices grow in power systems, along with more integration of inverter-based resources, developing and validating microgrid operation and control algorithms is becoming complex and time-consuming task. The ASSERT framework is designed to provide a comprehensive, accurate, and efficient solution for validating microgrid algorithms. It combines at-scale simulations and real-time emulation to create a virtual environment that closely mimics the behavior of a physical microgrids which are characteristic of future smart distribution systems, such as: (1) increasing variability in the physical size of new energy technologies; (2) requiring control large numbers of interconnected devices, and (3) integrating diverse technologies that have not previously worked together. The paper describes the technical details of the ASSERT framework, its validation process, and its benefits over traditional validation methods. The framework's ability to validate the performance of various algorithms is demonstrated through a case study, which shows that it can effectively identify the weaknesses of an algorithm and optimize its performance. Overall, the ASSERT framework is a promising tool that can significantly enhance the development and validation of microgrid algorithms, leading to more reliable and efficient microgrid operation.

at-scale↗
DOE OSTI2023

EmSense: A High-Resolution Emulated Sensor for Experiments with the Smart Grid and Distributed Ledger Technology

This work involves the development of a device - EmSense (“Emulated Sensor”) - that emulates a high-resolution sensor for a power grid. The device collects raw current and voltage sensor data which derive from ORNL's signature library. This library is a dataset that ORNL curates from many different sources that include power systems from various utilities. The EmSense packages the data from the library in the form of IEC 61850 Sampled Value (SV) packets and then broadcasts these SV packets on the network. In another mode, EmSense can generate artificial sinusoidal data that appears as waveforms for voltage and current signals. EmSense has an internal algorithm for determining the period of a signal based on the data so that the period can be specified as a variable in the IEC 61850 packets. The purpose of EmSense is to allow for experimentation with the Dark Net Infrastructure where a variety of power line sensors must be represented along with their typical communication traffic. The EmSense device was developed in coordination with the software for receiving and processing the packets in the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) framework of the DarkNet Project. This receiving software must have a methodology for dealing with information of high velocity, variety, and volume. Experimenting with EmSense facilitates the development of such software. The results showed that the DLT framework and the trust-anchoring approach managed to process a large flow of traffic even with up to six instances of EmSense device broadcasting data. This was achieved without overfilling packet queues in the memory of the actual hardware of the DLT devices or causing the Central Processing Unit (CPU) of the hardware to be overwhelmed. The DLTs were also able to store the data in a compact and useful form for later analysis and archival purposes.

Werth, Aaron↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalized Bayesian MARS: Tools for Stochastic Computer Model Emulation

The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman and its Bayesian counterpart are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors limits the usefulness of MARS, and many popular alternatives, when dealing with stochastic computer models. Here, we propose a generalized Bayesian MARS (GBMARS) framework which admits the broad class of generalized hyperbolic distributions as the induced likelihood function. This allows us to develop tools for the emulation of stochastic simulators which are parsimonious, scalable, and interpretable and require minimal tuning, while providing powerful predictive and uncertainty quantification capabilities. GBMARS is capable of robust regression with t distributions, quantile regression with asymmetric Laplace distributions, and a general form of “Normal-Wald” regression in which the shape of the error distribution and the structure of the mean function are learned simultaneously. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GBMARS on various stochastic computer models, and we show that it compares favorably to several popular alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

D2U: Data Driven User Emulation for the Enhancement of Cyber Testing, Training, and Data Set Generation

Whether testing intrusion detection systems, conducting training exercises, or creating data sets to be used by the broader cybersecurity community, realistic user behavior is a critical component of a cyber range. Existing methods either rely on network level data or replay recorded user actions to approximate real users in a network. Our work is the first to produce generative models trained on actual user data (sequences of application usage) collected on endpoints. Once trained to the user's behavioral data, these models can generate novel sequences of actions %that appear to come from the same distribution as the training data. These sequences of actions are then fed to our custom software via configuration files, which replicate those behaviors on end devices. Notably, our models are platform agnostic and could generate behavior data for any emulation software package. In this paper we present our model generation process, software architecture, and an initial evaluation of the fidelity of our models. Our software is currently deployed in a cyber range to help evaluate the efficacy of defensive cyber technologies. We suggest additional ways that the cyber community as a whole can benefit from more realistic user behavior emulation. The data used to train our model, as well as sample configuration files produced by the model, are available at [redacted].

Oesch, T↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time Series Dimension Reduction for Surrogate Models of Port Scanning Cyber Emulations

Surrogate model development is a key resource in the scientific modeling community for providing computational expedience when simulating complex systems without loss of great fidelity. The initial step to development of a surrogate model is identification of the primary governing components of the system. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used data science technique that provides inspection of such driving factors, when the objective for modeling is to capture the greatest sources of variance inherent to a dataset. Although an efficient linear dimension reduction tool, PCA makes the fundamental assumption that the data is continuous and normally distributed. Thus, it provides ideal performance when these conditions are met. In the case for which cyber emulations provide realizations of a port scanning scenario, the data to be modeled follows a discrete time series function comprised of monotonically increasing piece-wise constant steps. The sources of variance are related to the timing and magnitude of these steps. Therefore, we consider using XPCA, an extension to PCA for continuous and discrete random variates. This report provides the documentation of the trade-offs between the PCA and XPCA linear dimension reduction algorithms, for the intended purpose to identify key components of greatest variance in our time series data. These components will ultimately provide the basis for future surrogate models of port scanning cyber emulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fast Emulation of Expensive Simulations using Approximate Gaussian Processes [Slides]

Nuclear Computational Low-Energy Initiative (NUCLEI) collaboration uses Density Functional Theory (DFT) simulations to predict the structure and binding energies of nuclei over a wide range of proton (Z) and neutron (N) numbers. The DFT simulations utilize a particular parameterization of a Skyrme energy density functional called UNEDF1 which depends on 12 free parameters that must be fit to data (M Kortelainen et al 2014). Fitting involves comparing (e.g.) predicted binding energies of nuclei to experimentally measured values. We use only binding energies as observables, but DFT with UNEDF1 will predict structure (shape) observables as well. In this work, assessing the capability of approximate GP emulators to balance emulator accuracy with computational speed to facilitate improved UNEDF1 calibration. Sparse GPs are straightforward to train and accurate. Calibration is not straightforward with MCMC (using MH or HMC/NUTS). We produced reusable software for continuing and building on this work as well as accessing and using Darwin cluster compute resources

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dipolar molecule emulator of lattice gauge theories (Final Report)

The quantum many-body problem is a great unsolved, cross-cutting challenge in physics that is of fundamental importance. Our understanding of phenomena related to dense quark matter, in particular, is challenged by this practical intractability of classical simulations. Because of the sheer cost and challenge of performing experiments that probe the length and energy scales relevant to such physics, there are practical motivations for finding theoretical methods to address the many-body problem. One promising approach is based on the use of a programmable and controllable analog quantum systems to emulate the physics of many-body problems of interest. While there are currently broad efforts to develop mid- to large-scale quantum computers, we are still likely many years away from such devices outperforming classical supercomputers for useful calculations. Even though digital quantum computers are still at a stage too premature for such tasks, approaches based on analog quantum simulators have advanced rapidly over the past two decades and can now treat many-body problems of interest on small- to medium-scale systems. Tackling the challenging many-body problems of relevance to high energy physics represents one of the great new opportunities and challenges for the field of analog quantum simulation. To address this challenge, this award brought together an interdisciplinary team of physicists with expertise in high energy theory (El-Khadra and Draper), computational and condensed matter physics (Clark), and experimental quantum and atomic, molecular, optical (AMO) science (DeMarco and Gadway), with the goal of developing realistic and optimized strategies for the analog quantum simulation of lattice gauge theories using cold atoms and molecules. This track 1 project included both theoretical and experimental goals, stated as follows. The theory goals were to "develop and verify a novel approach to quantum emulation of (1+1)d quantum link models, based on arrays of trapped quantum spins with long-range interactions." This final project report details the progress made under this award, as well as new research directions developed under this award.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emulating the Android Boot Process

Critical vulnerabilities continue to be discovered in the boot process of Android smartphones used around the world. The entire device's security is compromised if boot security is compromised, so any weakness presents undue risk to users. Vulnerabilities persist, in part, because independent security analysts lack access and appropriate tools. In response to this gap, we implemented a procedure for emulating the early phase of the Android boot process. This work demonstrated feasibility and utility of emulation in this space. By using HALucinator, we derived execution context and data flow, as well as incorporated peripheral hardware behavior. While smartphones with shared processors have substantial code overlap regardless of vendor, generational changes can have a significant impact. By applying our approach to older and modern devices, we learned interesting characteristics about the system. Such capabilities introduce new levels of introspection and operation understanding not previously available to mobile researchers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Energy Technologies Laboratory Wind Turbine Emulator Design Documentation

This document contains the design and operation principles for the wind turbine emulator (WTE) located in the Distributed Energy Technologies Laboratory (DETL) at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia). The wind turbine emulator is a power hardware -in-the-loop (PHIL) representation of the research wind turbines located in Lubbock, Texas at the Sandia Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility. This document describes installation and commissioning steps, and it provides references to component manuals and specifications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗