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Modeling distributed energy resource aggregations in security constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) recently issued Order 2222, which requires all wholesale electricity markets in the US to allow distributed energy resources (DERs) to participate in the market as aggregated resources. These DER aggregations may be composed of many individual resources that are offered and dispatched by the market as a single entity. We present here a model of a distributed energy resource aggregator (DERA) that is scheduled by a market operator’s security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) and security constrained economic dispatch (SCED). The DERA model includes constraints for battery energy storage systems (BESSs), demand response resources (DRRs), and a simple distributed energy resource (DER). This paper describes a model for each resource type and presents two methods for the DERA to generate market offer curves: a profit-maximizing optimization to compute cost curves and a direct cost algorithm to determine dispatch costs for each resource and combine into cost curves. Once all participating DERAs are scheduled in SCUC/SCED, the model is then modified to dispatch individual DERs to maximize profit or minimize schedule deviation of the DERAs. A simulation of a representative day illustrates the DERA offers, the scheduled generation, and the DERA dispatch. Findings show the potential for unavoidable schedule deviations due to internal DER constraints and due to economic incentives to deviate from the SCUC/SCED schedules. This highlights the importance of DERA offer construction on market efficiency and system reliability. Novel aspects of our approach include: (1) We consider the asymmetry of price incentives impacting DERAs from the wholesale market compared to those impacting consumers from the retail market, as imposed by current regulations and laws. (2) We model aggregate consumer response through statistically parameterizable utility functions rather than a potentially impractical approach of modeling each individual consumer. (3) We show how to use the DERA operational dispatch model to create offers into the wholesale electricity market. (4) We show how DERAs may fail to meet their scheduled dispatch because the market offer format may not permit them to fully express their operational features such as intertemporal costs and constraints to the market.

aggregations↗

Co-simulation of transactive energy markets: A framework for market testing and evaluation

The proliferation of distributed energy resources (DER)—and the ability to intelligently control these assets—is re-defining the electrical distribution system. As the number of controllable devices rapidly expands, grid operators must determine how to incorporate these assets while delivering reliable, equitable, and affordable electricity. One possible approach is to establish distribution-level electricity markets and allow devices/aggregations of devices to participate in price establishment. While this approach purports some of the same benefits as the highly successful wholesale electricity markets (i.e., open competition, efficient price discovery, reduced communication overhead), this needs to be researched and quantified via an analysis platform that models distribution-level markets at the appropriate fidelity. Specifically, the simultaneous evaluation of market performance, DER performance, DER bidding approaches, and distribution feeder power quality requires modeling that spans multiple technical areas. Co-simulation has emerged as a powerful tool in addressing this type of problem, where outputs depend on a range of underlying areas of expertise and associated models. In this paper we describe a solution, as implemented in the HELICS co-simulation platform, where we include (1) high fidelity house models, (2) intelligent bidding agents, (3) a modular market integration/design, and (4) a distribution feeder model. We then present a case study where we test two different market designs: (1) a pseudo-wholesale double-blind auction, and (2) an asynchronous matching market. In this work, the markets are run under two DER penetration levels and economic results are compared to full retail net energy metering and avoided cost net metering scenarios that bookend current approaches to remuneration of DER participation. We show the potential for transactive markets to provide increased value for most customers relative to net metering (and all customers relative to avoided cost scenarios) while decreasing costs for the utility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

EMISApproximateEquilibrium.jl [SWR-19-56]

The Electricity Markets Investment Suite Approximate Equilibrium (EMIS-AE) package is developed at NREL and provides a solution capability to solve generation expansion equilibrium problems in the electricity markets. EMIS-AE is designed to capture the evolution of the electricity generation portfolio resulting from the interactions of heterogeneous investors under different policy and market designs. The investment problem for each generation company (GENCO) is a bi-level problem with the investment decision made in the upper level and market clearing condition in the lower level, which traditionally is represented as a Mathematical Program with Equilibrium Constraint (MPEC). EMIS-AE provides a predictive model to be trained for estimating the system-wide revenues for each technology type across energy, ancillary services and capacity markets given the amount of installed capacity on the grid. The profit maximization investment problem for each GENCO is solved using a global search algorithm, which uses the predictive model to evaluate the objective function. To solve for the strategic equilibrium, each GENCO’s problem is plugged into a diagonalization algorithm that is generally used in multi-leader, single-follower bi-level problems.

Dalvi, Sourabh↗

Forecasting the Impact of Dual-credit Policy (2021-2023) on China's Electric Vehicle Market

China is well known for its ambition on large-scale vehicle electrification which currently is mainly driven by fuel economy and electric vehicle policies. This study adopts the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model, a vehicle policy analysis tool developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, to systematically quantify the potential impacts of the “Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation” which was released in June 2020 for the timeframe 2021-2023, so called dual-credit policy (2021-2023). It is found that, under the dual-credit policy (2021-2023), the sales of low fuel consumption conventional vehicles will increase faster than they were in 2018-2020, and the share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could reach 11.4% by 2023 if it keeps the expansion as it was in 2017. Besides, the BEVs with long electric range (such as 400 km) and the plugin hybrid SUVs would be the most popular PEV types.

Ou, Shawn↗

Technology Strategy Assessment: Findings from Storage Innovations 2030 Bidirectional Hydrogen Storage

Hydrogen is the most common element in the universe, comprising nearly 75% of all normal matter, and it has been used by scientists for centuries, but it was not fully recognized as an element until 1766, when it was isolated by Henry Cavendish. Early work focused on the generation of hydrogen through the oxidation of metals in water, which released hydrogen gas. Hydrogen’s lighter-than-air and flammable properties were immediately used in engines, zeppelins, and as feedstock for a wide variety of chemical reactions. Several approaches were developed for the production of hydrogen with the most common being associated with the production and conversion of hydrocarbon-based fuels. Coal gasification, steam methane reforming, and other reformation processes provide the majority of current hydrogen production due to the relatively low cost of hydrogen produced through these processes. More than 95% of hydrogen production is used for industrial processes rather than energy storage. To facilitate affordable decarbonization of these industrial processes and to advance the use of hydrogen as a fuel in transportation, DOE launched the Hydrogen Shot as part of the Energy Earthshots Initiative. The goal of the Hydrogen Shot is to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1/kg of clean hydrogen production within one decade (known as the “1 1 1” goal). This is distinct from the Long-Duration Storage Shot, which is the primary focus of this report; however, it is intrinsically linked to bidirectional hydrogen storage. Several important chemical synthesis processes are dependent upon hydrogen, and the production and use of hydrogen is generally driven by its connection to one of these markets. For example, ammonia is one of the most highly produced chemicals in the world and it depends chiefly on hydrogen. Ammonia is primarily used for agricultural fertilizer and is considered to be largely responsible for a doubling of agricultural production per unit of land over the last century. Another one of hydrogen’s primary uses is as a catalyst in petroleum refining during the desulfurization process. Beyond chemical production, hydrogen is used as a reductant in the production of steel and has been demonstrated as a substitute for metallurgical coal in the production of raw iron. It is even used in the hydrogenation reaction for food products to create more shelf-stable semi-solid fats. However, while hydrogen is produced on the order of 100 million metric tons/year globally to feed these industries, more than 95% of hydrogen is produced from hydrocarbons that emit CO2 during the process. Conversely, electrolysis is a process by which electricity is used to separate hydrogen and oxygen in water molecules, usually across a membrane. Hydrogen production via electrolysis lowers the carbon intensity of produced hydrogen when coupled with low-carbon electricity. Currently, global electrolysis capacity is on the order of 1 GW, which equates to about 500 metric tons/day of hydrogen production. To support large-scale industrial decarbonization, capacity will likely need to increase by two to three orders of magnitude. Electrolysis technology is broadly separated into groups that are defined by the electrolyte used, with further subdivision based on the operating characteristics. The majority of commercial electrolyzer systems are based around three main technology groups: liquid alkaline, proton exchange membrane, and solid oxide. Liquid Alkaline (LA) electrolysis is the oldest, most mature, least expensive, and most common commercial technology, with 400 plants in operation by 1902. Its hydrogen output is low relative to the size of the system due to a low current density. LA electrolysis utilizes a liquid potassium hydroxide solution as the electrolyte. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis (also known as polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis), described in 1960, relies on an acid-impregnated polymer membrane as the electrolyte and typically offers three to six times higher hydrogen production per unit cell area than LA electrolysis. Solid oxide electrolysis, or high-temperature electrolysis, utilizes a ceramic cell as the electrolyte and operates on steam rather than liquid water, enabling electrical efficiencies of more than 90%, which is up from 60% with PEM. Two pre-commercial electrolyzer technologies to note are alkaline exchange membrane (AEM) and proton-conducting solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC). AEM potentially has the advantages of both LA and PEM technologies in that it is able to use low-cost materials like LA but with the ability to operate at higher output pressures with a smaller footprint like PEM. Proton-conducting SOEC is similar to commercial SOEC, which uses an oxide-conducting ceramic; however, it uses a proton-conducting ceramic that has the potential to operate at lower temperatures and has lower capital costs. Each of these technologies is experiencing a rapid improvement in performance and a reduction in installed cost, and each appears to be well suited to specific applications. Besides differences in the type of electrolyzer used, the main difference in the architecture of bidirectional hydrogen systems is how the hydrogen is stored. Currently, the most cost-effective way to store large amounts of hydrogen gas is underground, such as in large salt caverns that have been hollowed out. These salt caverns are geographically concentrated in small portions of the United States and are not generally near large metropolitan areas; however, other subsurface architectures are being investigated to expand this reach. A more widely deployable option is aboveground pressurized tanks. These systems are about 10 times as expensive because of the materials and safety margins required to hold hydrogen at high pressures. A third option is using materials-based storage, such as liquid organic hydrogen carriers. By reversibly attaching the produced hydrogen to other molecules, it can be stored at near atmospheric pressure and room temperature. This has the potential to reduce the material cost of storage but may result in a reduction in the efficiency of the process because there are both hydrogen uptake and release processes. While materials-based storage has not been used extensively for large-scale hydrogen storage in the past, there is currently significant activity regarding developing materials and processes for use in large-scale hydrogen storage applications. Electrolysis-produced hydrogen offers an unusual opportunity for energy storage applications. Unlike more conventional energy storage approaches, such as batteries, which operate entirely within electrical markets, hydrogen is a valuable product beyond the electric market and can be directed to the most lucrative use. Hydrogen also can be directly converted back to electricity using either a fuel cell or turbine, or it can be sold to other markets, such as chemical synthesis, steel production, or even export. In this way, excess electricity can be upgraded to the most valuable product. Finally, its use can be actively managed between multiple off-takers; for example, local hydrogen storage can provide a specific amount of stored electricity and any excess can be exported to ammonia production. This flexibility is amplified by the fact that hydrogen storage has fully decoupled power and energy components, which allows for affordable scaling options. Together, this allows a substantial amount of creativity to enable the economic utilization of variable power resources while supporting decarbonization of the industry.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Are coupled renewable-battery power plants more valuable than independently sited installations?

Coupled renewable-battery powerplants differ from the traditional concept of independent siting of electricity resources within transmission networks. Prior research on the value proposition and cost savings from coupling did not consider the geographic constraint of co-location. This paper fills the gap by assessing how pricing volatility differences between nodes within electricity markets impact the system value of coupled renewable-battery projects as compared to independent VRE and battery installations. We use wholesale power market prices from 2012–2019 across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) with a linear optimization program to compare the electricity market value of coupled projects to the value of the same underlying sub-components, deployed separately. We find that additional value from adding a 4-hour battery sized to 50% of renewable-plant nameplate capacity is $\$$10/MWh across ISOs on average. The highest boost occurs in California ($\$$15/MWh), where the value of adding storage to solar rises over time in tandem with increased solar penetration in the region. If renewables and batteries are deployed independently, we estimate that $\$$12.5/MWh of additional value could be achieved because of more flexibility on battery siting and operation. The $\$$12.5/MWh coupling penalty is reduced to $\$$1.6/MWh when considering alternative approaches to integrating battery storage. This result implies that renewable-battery power plants will play an increasing role in electricity systems if they can be built for $\$$2–$\$$13/MWh less than independent projects of comparable size. However, the wide regional variation in coupling penalties, along with the importance of conditions captured in our sensitivity cases, suggests the tradeoff between coupling penalties and savings will vary by situation. Therefore, roles exist for independent and coupled projects from a system optimization perspective.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Keep it short: Exploring the impacts of configuration choices on the recent economics of solar-plus-battery and wind-plus-battery hybrid energy plants

Coupled renewable-battery powerplants differ from the traditional concept of independent siting of electricity resources within transmission networks. Prior research on the value proposition and cost savings from coupling did not consider the geographic constraint of co-location. This paper fills the gap by assessing how pricing volatility differences between nodes within electricity markets impact the system value of coupled renewable-battery projects as compared to independent VRE and battery installations. We use wholesale power market prices from 2012–2019 across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) with a linear optimization program to compare the electricity market value of coupled projects to the value of the same underlying sub-components, deployed separately. We find that additional value from adding a 4-hour battery sized to 50% of renewable-plant nameplate capacity is $\$10$/MWh across ISOs on average. The highest boost occurs in California ($\$15$/MWh), where the value of adding storage to solar rises over time in tandem with increased solar penetration in the region. If renewables and batteries are deployed independently, we estimate that $\$12.5$/MWh of additional value could be achieved because of more flexibility on battery siting and operation. The $\$12.5$/MWh coupling penalty is reduced to $\$1.6$/MWh when considering alternative approaches to integrating battery storage. This result implies that renewable-battery power plants will play an increasing role in electricity systems if they can be built for $\$2$–$\$13$/MWh less than independent projects of comparable size. However, the wide regional variation in coupling penalties, along with the importance of conditions captured in our sensitivity cases, suggests the tradeoff between coupling penalties and savings will vary by situation. Therefore, roles exist for independent and coupled projects from a system optimization perspective.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Offshore Wind Farm Turbine and Energy Storage Optimization

Abstract This paper evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing decommissioned offshore oil and gas platforms as electrical substations for offshore wind projects in the U.S. Gulf of America, a region characterized by relatively low and highly variable wind speeds, extensive legacy offshore infrastructure, and exposure to merchant electricity markets. A unified techno-economic framework is developed using the Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Continued Energy (ROICE) Economic Model (REM) to integrate Gulfspecific wind resource assessment, commercial wind turbine performance, offshore infrastructure cost modeling, and wholesale electricity market exposure. Gulf wind speed data are vertically extrapolated to turbine hub height and combined with manufacturer power curves to compute annual energy production and capacity factors across a broad portfolio of commercial turbines, enabling identification of turbine designs best suited for low-wind offshore environments. Hourly electricity price data from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) day-ahead market are incorporated to characterize revenue potential, price volatility, and the temporal alignment between wind generation and market conditions. In addition, a conceptual framework for offshore battery energy storage system (BESS) integration is developed to support future investigation of market-responsive energy shifting at repurposed platforms. Results from the turbine evaluation demonstrate that machines with lower cut-in wind speeds and earlier ‘rated-power’ characteristics significantly outperform larger, industry-standard offshore turbines for the same net power under Gulf wind conditions, underscoring the need for region-specific technology selection. Market analysis further reveals substantial price variability and limited intrinsic alignment between wind production and high-price periods, motivating consideration of operational flexibility mechanisms. While storage optimization is not implemented in this study, the REM framework establishes a transparent and replicable foundation for co-evaluating turbine selection, infrastructure constraints, and market exposure, providing a practical pathway for assessing the potential role of repurposed offshore platforms in enabling economically viable offshore wind development in the Gulf of America.

02 PETROLEUM↗

HIPPO Software

HIPPO software is a Python implementation of the HIPPO technology. The HIPPO technology provides the computational and modeling capabilities for managing electricity market operations and for designing and prototyping future markets. The current software can solve the day-ahead unit commitment problem and perform simultaneous feasibility test. It can be used to handle industry scale electricity market.

Peng, Fan↗

Beyond Price-Taker: Multiscale Optimization of Wind and Battery Integrated Energy Systems

Integrating renewable energy into the electric grid is challenging due to the intermittency and variability of wind and other non-dispatchable resources. Integrated energy systems (IESs) combine multiple energy technologies (e.g., fossil, nuclear, renewables, storage) to reduce costs and improve flexibility and reliability. However, standard techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods often overestimate the benefits of IESs because they fail to account for energy market adjustments. This paper systematically studies the limitations of the prevailing price-taker assumption for TEA and optimization of hybrid energy systems. As an illustrative case study, we retrofit an existing wind farm in the RTS-GMLC test system (which loosely mimics the Southwest U.S.) with battery energy storage to form an IES. We show that the standard price-taker model overestimates the electricity revenue and the net present value (NPV) of the IES up to 178% and 30.4%, respectively, compared to our more rigorous multiscale optimization. These differences arise because introducing storage creates a more flexible resource that impacts the larger wholesale electricity market. Moreover, this work highlights the impact of the IES has on the market via various strategic bidding, and underscores the importance of moving beyond price-taker for optimal storage sizing and TEA of IESs. We conclude by discussing opportunities to generalize the proposed framework to other IESs, and highlight emerging research questions regarding the complex interactions between IESs and markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Market Structure Evaluation to Support the Clean Energy Transition

One can argue that wholesale electricity markets in the United States are a grand experiment with scarcely two decades of operational experience in their current form. A wide body of literature points out short comings of these markets function today, ranging from problems of missing money to negative prices for real-time electricity prices. The purpose of this report is to outline a framework by which energy policies and market structures can be evaluated to ascertain the impact these institutions have on electricity generators. The report describes an evaluated framework to compare energy policy then it discusses fundamental differences in regulated versus deregulated electricity markets. Then the report leverages these sections to describe assessment needs for quantifying aggregate impacts to generators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves and Energy Prices

Wildfire seasons in the Western U.S. become more prolonged and intense in recent years bringing significant variability and uncertainty of solar generation. It greatly challenges the bulk power system and electricity market operation managed by California Independent System Operator (CAISO) as California leads both the wildfire records and the solar power integration. This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impact of wildfires on solar generation, operating reserve and energy prices applying historical real-world wildfire and market operation data. To the best of the authors knowledge, it is a first-of-its-kind study and will lay the foundation for market impact quantification and wildfire mitigation strategies design based on projected wildfire activities in future years.

electricity price↗

Integration of Hybrids into Wholesale Power Markets

With growing commercial activity around utility-scale hybrid storage projects in the Unites States, independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs) are faced with making decisions on how to represent such emerging technology resources in the market clearing software through the definition of hybrid resource participation models. System operators are facing increasing uncertainties around efficient and reliable ways to operate these resources given the ambiguity around their impacts, particularly when high levels of hybrid resources are present. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance implications of different hybrid resource participation models in a realistic wholesale electricity market setting with significant deployment of hybrid resources, and to provide the industry with metrics that quantify the advantages and disadvantages of different participation options using realistic electricity market simulations. The different participation models are compared in terms of the impact to reliability of the overall system, the ability of the market to access the full capabilities of hybrid resources as measured by the economic efficiency, and asset profitability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

What Role Do Aggregators Play in Power System Security and Resilience?

Barriers to the participation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in wholesale electricity markets have limited the use of DERs for power system security and resilience. In September 2020, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved an order to reduce these barriers. FERC Order No. 2222 enables the participation of DER aggregators in wholesale electricity markets. DERs include renewable generation and technologies that support the integration of renewable generation by increasing grid flexibility and resilience. Requiring wholesale energy markets to allow DER aggregator participation provides a path for DERs to become competitive in these markets. As the contribution from aggregated DERs continues to increase, the aggregator's role in supporting grid security and resilience will become more critical. This paper reviews work that demonstrates how DER aggregators can provide resilience support through technical capabilities, operational strategies, and secure communication architectures. Socioeconomic influences and impacts of aggregators, including implications for social resilience, are presented. In surveying the current state-of-the-art across different but interconnected topics, we illustrate how aggregators can be power system participants that enhance grid security. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to enhancing resilience in a power grid that includes a growing cohort of DER aggregators, but there are many options for aggregators to contribute to a more resilient and secure power grid.

aggregator↗

What Role Do Aggregators Play in Power System Security and Resilience? Preprint

Barriers to the participation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in wholesale electricity markets have limited the use of DERs for power system security and resilience. In September 2020, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved an order to reduce these barriers. FERC Order No. 2222 enables the participation of DER aggregators in wholesale electricity markets. DERs include renewable generation and technologies that support the integration of renewable generation by increasing grid flexibility and resilience. Requiring wholesale energy markets to allow DER aggregator participation provides a path for DERs to become competitive in these markets. As the contribution from aggregated DERs continues to increase, the aggregator's role in supporting grid security and resilience will become more critical. This paper reviews work that demonstrates how DER aggregators can provide resilience support through technical capabilities, operational strategies, and secure communication architectures. Socioeconomic influences and impacts of aggregators, including implications for social resilience, are presented. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to enhancing resilience in a power grid that includes a growing cohort of DER aggregators, but there are many options for aggregators to contribute to a more resilient and secure power grid.

aggregator↗

A review of United States energy-only generator interconnection service policy and considerations for reform

Grid interconnection has emerged as a significant obstacle to the development of new electricity resources. There is growing interest in energy-only interconnection, which is an interconnection service option meant to allow the interconnection of new generators without ensuring their energy deliverability during all hours through the transmission system to customers. This approach potentially avoids upfront congestion-related transmission upgrades but could increase curtailment risk. Interest in energy-only interconnection is shaped by incomplete understanding of how interconnection policy functions in different jurisdictions, a knowledge gap that makes it difficult to determine how energy-only interconnection might be better used or re-designed. In this paper, we provide a regulatory review of energy-only interconnection in U.S. interconnection policy and practice, identifying jurisdictions in which rules are close to -or farther from-the theoretical concept of energy-only interconnection service. We find substantial jurisdictional differences in how energy-only interconnection is implemented, driven by differences in resource adequacy frameworks, real-time transmission operations, and state-level procurement practices. U.S. regulators have preferred local jurisdictional flexibility over federal prescription of interconnection study methods and procedures, which also contributes to differences among regions. Such findings raise fundamental questions about whether competition policies in electricity markets should extend beyond spot energy markets and into more prescriptive guidelines around interconnection rules and market entry. This paper sheds light on tensions that energy-only interconnection raises in allowing generators to access the transmission system on an as available basis and discusses how controlling thresholds for congestion-related network upgrades may be a barrier to electricity market entry.

Gorman, Will↗

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗