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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Feasibility of Incorporating a 3D Velocity Model Into Earthquake Location Around Salt Lake City, UT Using a Physics Informed Neural Network

Earthquake location algorithms typically require travel time calculation. Doing this calculation in 3D, despite advances in algorithm efficiency and computational power, can still be prohibitively expensive in terms of resources and storage. Implementation of high-resolution 3D models in routine earthquake location would be a significant step forward in most of the world. Machine learning algorithms have potential to act as substitutes for travel time calculation algorithms or stored travel time tables. We investigate EikoNet - a physics informed neural network machine learning model that estimates travel times very quickly and comes with negligible memory-overhead. Specifically, we apply EikoNet to the Wasatch Fault Community Velocity Model (WFCVM), a highly detailed and complex 3D velocity model of the Salt Lake City, UT region. While routine locations in the area and studies of the 2020 Magna, UT earthquake sequence used a 1D velocity model, a 3D model may help better our understanding the structure of the major fault in the region. Our primary goal was to test the speed, memory requirements, and accuracy of EikoNet compared to a reference eikonal solver. We find that while the EikoNet is exceedingly fast and requires little memory overhead, achieving acceptable accuracy in estimated travel times is difficult and requires extensive computational resources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

EQSIM: Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

The great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 is one of the most recognized, and sobering, demonstrations of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, these events still present a significant danger to life and economic security. To mitigate the potential devastation of future earthquakes and better prepare for these inevitable events, researchers are turning to high-performance computers to simulate the underlying geophysical processes and accurately quantify associated risks to critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shear-Wave Radiation Patterns from Explosive and Earthquake Sources in Scattering, Heterogeneous Media

Distinguishing whether a seismic event is an earthquake or an explosion is a core problem in explosion monitoring. For simplistic models, earthquakes produce a predictable S-wavefield based on their radiation pattern, while an explosion produces no S-wavefield. However, observations from nuclear tests show that explosions can produce significant S-wave energy on both horizontal components. We perform numerical experiments using SPECFEM to constrain when an S-wavefield generated from an explosion might differ from one produced by an earthquake. We generate the S-wavefield for our explosions by placing the source location within a small region consisting of large velocity heterogeneities. For the 2D cases investigated here, a crucial condition is that the size of the region of heterogeneities must be much smaller (approximately 1/12th) than the minimum wavelength of the wavefield for our simulation setups. We investigate both isotropic heterogeneities and anisotropic heterogeneities. Initial results demonstrate that the heterogeneous region lowers the P/S amplitude ratios of an explosion. The presence of strong anisotropic heterogeneities near the source can also produce an S-wavefield with similar amplitudes to the P-wavefield. Lastly, we show that S-wave polarization angles vary as a function of azimuth and distance for explosive sources in the presence of small-scale heterogeneities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities for enhancing MLCommons efforts while leveraging insights from educational MLCommons earthquake benchmarks efforts

MLCommons is an effort to develop and improve the artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem through benchmarks, public data sets, and research. It consists of members from start-ups, leading companies, academics, and non-profits from around the world. The goal is to make machine learning better for everyone. In order to increase participation by others, educational institutions provide valuable opportunities for engagement. In this article, we identify numerous insights obtained from different viewpoints as part of efforts to utilize high-performance computing (HPC) big data systems in existing education while developing and conducting science benchmarks for earthquake prediction. As this activity was conducted across multiple educational efforts, we project if and how it is possible to make such efforts available on a wider scale. This includes the integration of sophisticated benchmarks into courses and research activities at universities, exposing the students and researchers to topics that are otherwise typically not sufficiently covered in current course curricula as we witnessed from our practical experience across multiple organizations. As such, we have outlined the many lessons we learned throughout these efforts, culminating in the need for benchmark carpentry for scientists using advanced computational resources. The article also presents the analysis of an earthquake prediction code benchmark while focusing on the accuracy of the results and not only on the runtime; notedly, this benchmark was created as a result of our lessons learned. Energy traces were produced throughout these benchmarks, which are vital to analyzing the power expenditure within HPC environments. Additionally, one of the insights is that in the short time of the project with limited student availability, the activity was only possible by utilizing a benchmark runtime pipeline while developing and using software to generate jobs from the permutation of hyperparameters automatically. It integrates a templated job management framework for executing tasks and experiments based on hyperparameters while leveraging hybrid compute resources available at different institutions. The software is part of a collection called cloudmesh with its newly developed components, cloudmesh-ee (experiment executor) and cloudmesh-cc (compute coordinator).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stress Controls Rupture Extent and Maximum Magnitude of Induced Earthquakes

Abstract Seismic hazard forecasts of induced seismicity often require estimates of the maximum possible magnitude ( M max ). Empirical models suggest that maximum magnitudes, or expected number of earthquakes, are related to the volume of injected fluid. We perform a suite of 3D physics‐based earthquake simulations with rate‐ and state‐dependent friction, systematically varying the area of the pressurized region and the amplitude of the initial homogeneous or heterogeneous shear stress. Using the resulting catalog we explore the conditions that result in pressure‐controlled versus runaway ruptures that extend outside the pressurized zone. We find that proposed empirical scaling laws correctly predict M max when shear stresses are further from failure (≤90% of maximum shear stress) and for high amplitude stress fields. Runaway ruptures are observed for higher initial shear stresses and smoother stress fields. In these cases, runaway ruptures occur early after the onset of injection and rarely preceded by foreshock activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A mixed, unified forward/inverse framework for earthquake problems: fault implementation and coseismic slip estimate

SUMMARY We introduce a new finite-element (FE) based computational framework to solve forward and inverse elastic deformation problems for earthquake faulting via the adjoint method. Based on two advanced computational libraries, FEniCS and hIPPYlib for the forward and inverse problems, respectively, this framework is flexible, transparent and easily extensible. We represent a fault discontinuity through a mixed FE elasticity formulation, which approximates the stress with higher order accuracy and exposes the prescribed slip explicitly in the variational form without using conventional split node and decomposition discrete approaches. This also allows the first order optimality condition, that is the vanishing of the gradient, to be expressed in continuous form, which leads to consistent discretizations of all field variables, including the slip. We show comparisons with the standard, pure displacement formulation and a model containing an in-plane mode II crack, whose slip is prescribed via the split node technique. We demonstrate the potential of this new computational framework by performing a linear coseismic slip inversion through adjoint-based optimization methods, without requiring computation of elastic Green’s functions. Specifically, we consider a penalized least squares formulation, which in a Bayesian setting—under the assumption of Gaussian noise and prior—reflects the negative log of the posterior distribution. The comparison of the inversion results with a standard, linear inverse theory approach based on Okada’s solutions shows analogous results. Preliminary uncertainties are estimated via eigenvalue analysis of the Hessian of the penalized least squares objective function. Our implementation is fully open-source and Jupyter notebooks to reproduce our results are provided. The extension to a fully Bayesian framework for detailed uncertainty quantification and non-linear inversions, including for heterogeneous media earthquake problems, will be analysed in a forthcoming paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

EQSIM—A multidisciplinary framework for fault-to-structure earthquake simulations on exascale computers part I: Computational models and workflow

Computational simulations have become central to the seismic analysis and design of major infrastructure over the past several decades. Most major structures are now “proof tested” virtually through representative simulations of earthquake-induced response. More recently, with the advancement of high-performance computing (HPC) platforms and the associated massively parallel computational ecosystems, simulation is beginning to play a role in increased understanding and prediction of ground motions for earthquake hazard assessments. However, the computational requirements for regional-scale geophysics-based ground motion simulations are extreme, which has restricted the frequency resolution of direct simulations and limited the ability to perform the large number of simulations required to numerically explore the problem parametric space. In this article, recent developments toward an integrated, multidisciplinary earth science-engineering computational framework for the regional-scale simulation of both ground motions and resulting structural response are described with a particular emphasis on advancing simulations to frequencies relevant to engineered systems. This multidisciplinary computational development is being carried out as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project with the goal of achieving a computational framework poised to exploit emerging DOE exaflop computer platforms scheduled for the 2022–2023 timeframe.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characteristics and selection of near-fault simulated earthquake ground motions for nonlinear analysis of buildings

Earthquake-induced ground shaking near rupturing faults is highly sensitive to the rupture characteristics, seismic wave propagation patterns and site conditions, and field recordings of near-fault shaking are relatively sparse. These challenges complicate the assessment of the seismic performance of near-fault structures. A common approach to representing near-fault ground motion in engineering analysis is to explicitly consider and select records with strong directivity pulses (pulse records). We use three-dimensional high-resolution physics-based earthquake simulations to test this approach in the context of scenario-based ground motion record selection, and to study the important characteristics of near-fault ground shaking. We highlight the deficiencies associated with classifying near-fault simulated records as “pulse” or “non-pulse,” based on the presence of a single dominating pulse in the velocity time history. We show that this approach is inadequate for characterizing near-fault shaking on soft soils which can be dominated by both forward rupture directivity and basin amplification effects. We conduct ground motion selection experiments for the analysis of near-fault structures with and without explicit classification of the pulse features in the records, and evaluate the bias in the predicted structural demands. We find that the maximum interstory drift demands on building structures imposed by unscaled site-specific simulated ground motion records selected based on relevant spectral shape features are not sensitive to the classification of records as pulse/non-pulse. Therefore, with regard to predicting the maximum interstory drifts in near-fault buildings, we do not find justification for the binary pulse classification of near-fault records.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seismic velocity modeling and earthquake relocations for the southern Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), with a focus on Rock Valley

The Rock Valley Direct Comparison (RV/DC) is the third phase of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE; Snelson et al., 2014), a project aimed at improving seismic discrimination between explosive sources and natural earthquakes. Phases I and II of SPE focused on studying the generation of shear waves in endmember geologies (granite and alluvium, respectively), while Phase III aims to detonate a chemical explosion co-located with the source region of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, located in the Rock Valley Fault Zone (RVFZ), in the southern portion of the Nevada Test Site (now the Nevada National Security Site, or NNSS).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting deviations in ex-core detector response in Krsko NPP during an earthquake with Monte-Carlo neutron transport methods

To study the response of ex-core detectors during an earthquake, an approach using Monte Carlo code MCNP was developed. As a first step to predict the response of the ex-core detectors a detailed MCNP model of the Krsko reactor core was created. A detailed MCNP core model was used to calculate 3D power distributions inside the core. Calculated power distributions were verified by comparison to the CORD-2 calculations, which is currently used for core design calculation verification of the Krsko nuclear power plant. Due to the outside the core position of the neutron detectors, the hybrid code ADVANTG is used to generate weight windows to speed up neutron transport outside the reactor core. To be able to use ADVANTG, fixed neutron source had to be reconstructed from the criticality core calculation. It was found that the power range ex-core detector movement has a negligible effect on the value of the thermal neutron flux at the active part of the detector. However, the 5 cm radial movement of the intermediate-range detector leads to 7 % - 8 % change in thermal neutron flux within the active intermediate-range detector region. The analysis continued with the evaluation of the effect of core barrel movement on the ex-core detector response. It was determined that the 2 mm core barrel radial oscillation can lead to ∼ 4% change in thermal neutron flux within the active detector region. It was evaluated that reactor core movement inside the baffle can lead up to ∼ 1.9% and ∼ 1.3% deviation in power-range and intermediate-range detector signal respectively. Analysis showed that the mechanical movement of ex-core neutron detectors could not explain the fluctuations in the ex-core detector signal. However, combined core barrel and reactor core inside baffle oscillations could be a probable reason for the observed fluctuations in the ex-core detector signal during an earthquake. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Earthquake-induced impact of base-isolated buildings: theory, numerical modeling, and design solutions

Earthquake shaking more intense than that used to size the horizontal clearance between a base–isolated building and near–rigid perimeter moat wall will result in hard impact, producing high–frequency, high–amplitude acceleration response in the structure and supported equipment. Herein this paper provides a design solution for the damaging effects of hard impact by installing a compliant engineered element in the load path between the base–isolated building and the moat wall, resulting in soft impact and a much smaller acceleration response. The engineered element assumed herein is a commercial–off–the–shelf marine fender with mechanical properties determined by physical testing. The attachment of a flexible engineered element, with well–defined stiffness and damping, to a near–rigid moat wall, simplifies the numerical modeling of the building–moat wall system and eliminates the need to bound the lateral stiffness of the wall for impact calculations. The simple model of the engineered element can be implemented in commercial finite element codes. Theory is developed for two–sided impact of a single–degree–of–freedom oscillator. Analytical solutions are derived for the shifted first–mode frequency of the impacted oscillator and for its free–vibration response. The shifted first–mode frequency is a function of the composite lateral stiffness of the isolator–engineered element assembly and its earthquake–induced displacement. Local peaks in the spectral response of the impacted oscillator form at odd integer multiples of the shifted first–mode frequency. The analytical solutions can be used to verify, in part, the numerical model used for impact analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Earthquake-triggered submarine canyon flushing transfers young terrestrial and marine organic carbon into the deep sea

Submarine canyons transfer substantial amounts of sediment and organic carbon (OC) into the deep ocean, nourishing deep-sea ecosystems and contributing to the global carbon cycle through OC burial and sequestration. Tracking lateral OC transport through submarine canyon systems is challenged by the deep-ocean setting, difficulties with constraining episodic depositional events, and the need to assess the composition and age of marine and terrestrial organic matter. We apply innovative parallel ramped pyrolysis oxidation accelerator mass spectrometry and pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry with isotope analyses to track OC age and sources in the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake-triggered, canyon-flushing event that deposited along >1300 km of a submarine canyon-channel system, offshore Aotearoa New Zealand. Specifically, these techniques allow us to determine the ages, sources, and partitioning of OC within the Kaikoura turbidite deposit and test hypotheses of how submarine canyon systems contribute to lateral OC flux and burial. Our results show that, despite considerable canyon floor erosion, substantial amounts of young OC were flushed into the deep sea, with relatively little (~2%) pre-Holocene OC contributions. Even without a direct connection between rivers and submarine canyons, most (~55%) of the OC in the Kaikoura event bed is from terrestrial sources. However, the deposit also contains substantial amounts (~22%) of marine-derived OC and ~23% of the material is of unassignable origin. Particle sorting imparts variability on the age and composition of OC within turbidite deposits and along the turbidity current flow path. Terrestrial-derived OC is preferentially older than marine-derived OC and concentrated in coarser particle sizes found more commonly at the deposit base and in proximal settings. Young, marine-derived OC is concentrated at the surface of the deposits and tends to be enriched in finer particle sizes. Such OC partitioning in turbidites supports the relevance of depositional models for predicting and quantifying distribution of OC in deep-sea deposits. Earthquake-triggered, canyon flushing events and resulting turbidites enhance OC burial efficiency and can sequester OC effectively, contributing an important carbon sink to the sedimentary carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating Injection‐Induced Seismicity Along Basement Faults by Extraction: Application to 2016–2018 Pohang Earthquakes

Abstract The risk of induced earthquake is considered as the major obstacle for sustainable subsurface energy activities. As a mitigation approach, mechanistic risk assessment can be essential to minimize the potential of seismic hazard. Coupled hydro‐mechanical modeling approach is integrated with geomechanical analysis to better assess the occurrence of seismicity induced by injection and/or extraction, which will provide a basis to update operational conditions (e.g., number and location of mitigating wells, rate and duration of operations) for mitigating earthquake nucleation. The Coulomb stability analysis and seismicity rate estimates from this generic study indicate that simultaneous extraction can relieve injection‐induced pore‐pressure buildup, but also transfer and accumulate elastic energy along the faults. Field‐scale simulation with variation in well design for the Pohang EGS site, South Korea, show that multiple wells aligned across a preexisting fault form gradients of pressure and stress fields normal to the fault, which can enhance the direct impact of diffusion process and poroelastic stressing on the fault stability perturbation. Our mechanistic study suggests multiphysics‐oriented mitigation strategies that consider (1) possible mechanical deformation, caused by hydro‐mechanical coupling effects, and (2) proper configuration of well operations based on site‐specific geological characteristics.

Chang, K. W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS) in Elasto-Plastic Fault Zones With a Hybrid Finite Element Spectral Boundary Integral Scheme

We present a coupled finite element spectral boundary integral framework for modeling sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip on a 2-D planar rate-and-state fault with off-fault visco-plastic response in the plane strain approximation. The model resolves both slow aseismic deformation and inertia effects during rapid slip. As an application, we perform two sets of simulations with different choices of cohesion to explore the co-evolution of fault slip, bulk plasticity and local stress fields. The first set implements a relatively large value of the cohesion parameter, which results in limiting inelastic strain accumulation to dynamic rupture phases. The second set implements a smaller cohesion, allowing for plastic strain to accumulate in both seismic and aseismic phases. For the first model, our results indicate that the extent and distribution of plastic strain depend on the angle of maximum compressive principal stress. At larger angles, inelastic strain accumulates on the extensional side of a dynamically propagating rupture. At smaller angles, the extent of plasticity is limited to the compressional side of the domain. At smaller cohesion values, off-fault plasticity may occur during aseismic slip, which alters the nucleation characteristics and earthquake sequence pattern. Furthermore, our results at lower cohesion values indicate that plastic strain accumulation may occur in both the extensional and compressional sides of the off-fault bulk even at higher angles of maximum compression. In conclusion, this produces damage patterns that deviate from the traditional off-fault fan-like distribution observed in dynamic rupture simulations and emphasizes the significance of long-term deformation in interpreting observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Severe Strain‐Induced Olivine‐Ringwoodite Transformation at Room Temperature: Key to Enigmas of Deep‐Focus Earthquake

Deep‐focus earthquakes at 350–660 km are presumably caused by olivine‐spinel phase transformation (PT). This cannot, however, explain the observed high seismic strain rate, which requires PT to complete within seconds, while metastable olivine does not transform for over a million years. Recent theory quantitatively describes how severe plastic deformations (SPD) can solve this dilemma but lacking experimental proof. Here, we introduce dynamic rotational diamond anvil cell with rough diamond anvils to impose SPD on San Carlos olivine. While olivine never transformed to spinel at room temperature, we obtained reversible olivine‐ringwoodite PT under SPD at 15–28 GPa within tens of seconds. The PT pressure reduces with increasing dislocation density, microstrain, plastic strain, and decreasing crystallite size. Results demonstrate a new strain‐induced PT mechanism compared to a pressure/temperature‐induced one. Combined with SPD during olivine subduction, this mechanism can accelerate olivine‐ringwoodite PT from millions of years to timescales relevant to earthquakes.

Lin, F. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States↗
DOE OSTI2023

An adjoint-based optimization method for jointly inverting heterogeneous material properties and fault slip from earthquake surface deformation data

SUMMARY Analysis of tectonic and earthquake-cycle associated deformation of the crust can provide valuable insights into the underlying deformation processes including fault slip. How those processes are expressed at the surface depends on the lateral and depth variations of rock properties. The effect of such variations is often tested by forward models based on a priori geological or geophysical information. Here, we first develop a novel technique based on an open-source finite-element computational framework to invert geodetic constraints directly for heterogeneous media properties. We focus on the elastic, coseismic problem and seek to constrain variations in shear modulus and Poisson’s ratio, proxies for the effects of lithology and/or temperature and porous flow, respectively. The corresponding nonlinear inversion is implemented using adjoint-based optimization that efficiently reduces the cost function that includes the misfit between the calculated and observed displacements and a penalty term. We then extend our theoretical and numerical framework to simultaneously infer both heterogeneous Earth’s structure and fault slip from surface deformation. Based on a range of 2-D synthetic cases, we find that both model parameters can be satisfactorily estimated for the megathrust setting-inspired test problems considered. Within limits, this is the case even in the presence of noise and if the fault geometry is not perfectly known. Our method lays the foundation for a future reassessment of the information contained in increasingly data-rich settings, for example, geodetic GNSS constraints for large earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku-oki M9 event, or distributed deformation along plate boundaries as constrained from InSAR.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI for Earthquake Physics

The core LANL program sponsored by Office of Science, Basic Energy Science, Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences (DOE-BES-CSGB) and led by PI Johnson aims to research earthquake faults to advance fault physics and earthquake hazards. All work completed is required to be made publicly available through publications and open-source codes supporting the published results. All routines are/will-be written in open source python and applied to publicly available data sets. These routines will format data from input into models, develop and test modeling frameworks for the problems addressed, and produce figures applicable to peer-reviewed manuscripts. All work is reviewed for Los Alamos Unlimited Release before submitting to a journal. This summary encompasses recently completed work and work to be complete for the duration of the program.

Johnson, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2021

Refinements to the Graves–Pitarka Kinematic Rupture Generator, Including a Dynamically Consistent Slip-Rate Function, Applied to the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake

The main objective of this study is to develop physics–based constraints on the spatiotemporal variation of the slip–rate function using a simplified dynamic rupture model. First, we performed dynamic rupture modeling of the 2019 M w 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake, to analyze the effects of depth–dependent stress and material friction on slip rate. Then, we used our modeling results to guide refinements to the slip–rate function that were implemented in the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture generation technique. The dynamic ruptures were computed on a surface–rupturing, planar strike–slip fault that includes a weak (negative to low–stress–drop) zone in the upper 4 km of the crust. Below the weak zone, we placed high–stress–drop patches designed to mirror the large–slip areas seen in various rupture model inversions of the event. The locations of the high–stress–drop patches and the hypocenter were varied in multiple realizations to investigate how changing the dynamic conditions affected the resulting rupture kinematics, in particular, the slip rate. From these simulations, we observed a systematic change in the shape of the slip–rate function from Kostrov type below the weak zone to a predominantly symmetric shape within the weak zone, along with a depth–dependent reduction of peak slip rate. We generalized these shallow rupture features into a depth–dependent parametric variation of the slip–rate function and implemented it in the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model generator. The performance of the updated kinematic approach was then verified in 0–4 Hz simulations of the M w 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake, which showed that incorporating the depth–dependent variation in the shape of the slip–rate function improves the fit to the observed near–fault ground motions in the 0.5–3 s period range.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗