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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Topography-Based Subgrid Scheme and Downscaling of Atmospheric Forcing on Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Conterminous US

The effects of small-scale topography-induced land surface heterogeneity are not well represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). In this study, a new topography-based subgrid structure referred to as topographic units (TGU) designed to better capture subgrid topographic effects, and methods to downscale atmospheric forcing to the land TGUs have been implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). Effects of the subgrid scheme and downscaling methods on ELM simulated land surface processes are evaluated over the conterminous United States (CONUS). For this purpose, ELM simulations are performed using two configurations without (NoD ELM) and with (D ELM) downscaling, both using TGUs derived for the 0.5-degree grids and the same land surface parameters. Simulations using the two ELM configurations are compared over the CONUS domain, regional levels, and at observational sites (e.g., SNOTEL). The CONUS-level results suggest that D ELM simulates more snowfall and snow water equivalent (SWE), higher runoff, and less ET during spring and summer. Regional-level results suggest more pronounced impacts of downscaling over regions dominated by higher elevation TGUs and regions with maximum precipitation occurring during cool seasons. Results at the SNOTEL sites suggest that D ELM has superior capability of reproducing the observed SWE at 83% of the sites, with more pronounced performance over topographically heterogeneous TGUs with their maximum precipitation occurring during cool seasons. The results highlight the importance of improving representation of small-scale surface heterogeneity in ESMs and motivate future research to understand their effects on land-atmosphere interactions, streamflow, and water resources management over mountainous regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved Representations of Longwave Surface Emissivity to Reduce Surface and Atmospheric Heating Biases in Earth System Models

Abstract Many Earth system models (ESMs) approximate surface emissivity as a broadband constant. This approximation reduces the computational burden, yet omits the spectral structure of emissivity and atmospheric absorption. Neglecting spectral variation in surface emission introduces biases in longwave (LW) atmospheric fluxes and heating. Biases are strongest over surfaces with strongly varying emissivity and minimal atmospheric opacity. We examine these biases over water, ice, and snow surfaces. We partition spectral emissivity into the 16 spectral bands utilized by a single‐column atmospheric radiative transfer model (RRTMG_LW) commonly used in ESMs. We quantify flux and heating biases introduced by broadband assumptions relative to the spectrally resolved case for standard atmospheric profiles over each surface type. Current assumptions tend to overestimate upwelling surface fluxes; for example, the greybody assumption overestimates flux by 1.6 W/m 2 (0.52%) at the bottom of a mid‐latitude winter atmosphere over ice, and by 2.33 (1.0%) at the top of atmosphere. The blackbody assumption tends to artificially cool Earth's surface, stabilizing the lower troposphere. Interestingly, the optimal broadband emissivity can deviate from the Planck‐weighted mean by up to 3% depending on surface type and atmospheric profile. We investigate bias sensitivity to surface temperature, cloud water path, and atmospheric water vapor. Bias is most sensitive to water vapor content, and least sensitive to cloud water path. Lastly, we show that a modified greybody method with updated broadband values can reduce total surface flux bias up to 1.69 , comparable to a five‐band approach and at a fraction of the computational cost.

Manzo, L. [Department of Earth System Science Univ↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Lake Biogeochemistry Model for Global Methane Emissions: Model Development, Site‐Level Validation, and Global Applicability

Abstract Lakes are important sentinels of climate change and may contribute over 30% of natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions; however, no earth system model (ESM) has represented lake CH 4 dynamics. To fill this gap, we refined a process‐based lake biogeochemical model to simulate global lake CH 4 emissions, including representation of lake bathymetry, oxic methane production (OMP), the effect of water level on ebullition, new non‐linear CH 4 oxidation kinetics, and the coupling of sediment carbon pools with in‐lake primary production and terrigenous carbon loadings. We compiled a lake CH 4 data set for model validation. The model shows promising performance in capturing the seasonal and inter‐annual variabilities of CH 4 emissions at 10 representative lakes for different lake types and the variations in mean annual CH 4 emissions among 106 lakes across the globe. The model reproduces the variations of the observed surface CH 4 diffusion and ebullition along the gradients of lake latitude, depth, and surface area. The results suggest that OMP could play an important role in surface CH 4 diffusion, and its relative importance is higher in less productive and/or deeper lakes. The model performance is improved for capturing CH 4 outgassing events in non‐floodplain lakes and the seasonal variability of CH 4 ebullition in floodplain lakes by representing the effect of water level on ebullition. The model can be integrated into ESMs to constrain global lake CH 4 emissions and climate‐CH 4 feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing Soil Microbial Dynamics and Organo‐Mineral Interactions in the E3SM Land Model (ELM‐ReSOM)

Explicit representation of soil microbial processes and interactions with biotic and abiotic processes in Earth System Models (ESMs) remains limited, despite their importance in biogeochemical cycles. To address this gap, which hinders prediction of global biogeochemial cycling and responses to atmospheric conditions, we integrated a microbe- and mineral-surface-explicit model, the Reaction-network-based model of soil organic matter and Microbes (ReSOM), into the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SM) land model (ELM). Here, we describe ELM-ReSOM and show a case study at a conifer forest in California. ELM-ReSOM accurately simulated surface CO 2 fluxes and SOM stocks, demonstrating improved representations of microbial and mineral interactions compared to the default ELM. We examined ELM-ReSOM sensitivity to microbial traits, enzyme properties, and organo-mineral interactions. Microbial traits such as the maximum mortality rate, transporter-density scaling factor, and maximum monomer assimilation rate were strong controllers of heterotrophic respiration, while these microbial traits and enzyme-related properties collectively influenced SOM stocks. Mineral surfaces primarily affected SOM stocks by adsorbing enzymes, thereby limiting depolymerization. Synergies among processes led to stronger impacts of parameters when evaluated together versus separately (i.e., most parameters had greater indirect than direct effects). For example, due to interactions of microbial necromass with mineral surface adsorption, the indirect effect of the maximum microbial mortality rate was 33% larger than its direct effect on SOM stock. Thus, microbial and enzyme dynamics and their interactions with mineral surfaces play critical roles in SOM cycling. Tackling the challenges of microbe-explicit models will advance understanding and modeling of SOM dynamics.

Tao, Jing [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dust Direct Radiative Effect Including Large Particles and Component Minerals

The direct radiative effect (DRE) of dust aerosols in Earth system models (ESMs) remains highly uncertain, largely due to inadequate representations of particle size distribution (PSD) and mineral composition. Using NASA's Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) soil mineralogy data and observed PSD in an ESM that resolves dust mineral composition and emitted diameters from 0.1 to 70 μm, we find a near-neutral global dust net DRE (−0.057 W m −2 ), weaker than most previous estimates. Large dust (diameter >10 μm) contributes 30% of the global longwave dust optical depth, providing observational constraints on large-particle abundance, and offsets 20% of the dust shortwave cooling over major source regions. Incorporation of EMIT mineralogy reduces shortwave uncertainty by more than 50%. The remaining uncertainty mainly exists in processes controlling dust abundance, particularly the poorly understood transport of large dust, and longwave optical properties, which require additional observational constraints to more accurately quantify the dust DRE.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of Simulated Polar Climate to Improved Partitioning of Spectral Solar Irradiance Between Visible and Near‐Infrared Bands

The solar radiative processes that contribute to Earth's surface and atmospheric energy budgets are strongly dependent on wavelength. For example, snow and water vapor become more absorptive as incident radiation shifts from visible (VIS) to near-infrared (NIR) wavelengths. Some earth system models (ESMs) aggregate solar radiation into just two bands (VIS and NIR) partitioned at 0.7 μm for transmission between the atmospheric and surface components. In the widely used radiative transfer model RRTMG_SW this partition is near the center of the overlap spectral band spanning 0.625–0.778 μm, whose flux is often approximated as being evenly divided between the VIS and NIR surface bands. Using a hyperspectral radiative transfer model, we show that the fractional downwelling surface flux within the overlap band is usually distributed about 55.5%:44.5% VIS:NIR. This improved approximation shifts as much as 4.27 W m −2 from the NIR to the VIS band, leading to an instantaneous decrease in surface absorption of up to 0.91 W m −2 over snow-covered surfaces. Century-long fully coupled ESM simulations show surface absorption over snow decreases by over 1.6 W m −2 . The coupled response in sea ice regions amplifies the initial forcing ten-fold, and increases seasonal sea ice area by up to 4.9%. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing the spectral distribution of solar radiation in the cryosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape

Arctic warming is altering vegetation and carbon dynamics with global implications, yet Earth System Model (ESM) predictions in the Arctic remain highly uncertain, in part due to historically limited data for model parameterization and validation. As such, ESMs typically represent Arctic ecosystems in an oversimplified manner. Recently, nine plant functional types (PFTs) designed to realistically represent tundra vegetation were integrated into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) and parameterized using plot-scale observations from a single site. Additional evaluation was needed to determine their transferability across the Arctic. Here, in this study, we evaluated whether refined representation of tundra vegetation improved model accuracy by conducting spatially explicit 100 × 100 m resolution ELM simulations on Alaska's Seward Peninsula. Simulations with the default two-PFT configuration and with the nine Arctic-specific PFTs were benchmarked against observations of net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and aboveground biomass from multiple data streams including an eddy covariance flux tower, flux chambers, and aircraft and unoccupied aerial system hyperspectral remote sensing. Evaluation revealed that Arctic-specific PFT simulations produced more realistic landscape-level carbon exchanges, and better captured observed heterogeneity in biomass and productivity, explaining 60%–70% of spatial variance (R 2 = 0.6–0.7) compared to just 12%–18% (R 2 = 0.12–0.18) with the default configuration. However, the refined model failed to reproduce observed aboveground biomass for highly productive alder-willow communities, requiring further evaluation of carbon allocation parameterizations for tall shrubs that are increasingly expanding across tundra landscapes. Our results demonstrate that enhanced representation of vegetation heterogeneity boosts predictive understanding of tundra carbon dynamics, facilitating regional to pan-Arctic model and remote-sensing scaling.

Murphy, Bailey A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactive Gas Chemistry for Enhanced Science Capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3

Atmospheric chemistry plays a crucial role in Earth system models (ESMs), controlling atmospheric composition and radiative balance; it is highly interactive with the physical climate, biogeochemical cycles, and human systems. However, it often imposes computational challenges in an ESM. Here we develop a full troposphere‐stratosphere interactive chemistry module for the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We intentionally build a streamlined module based on E3SM version 2 that interacts with other components and maintains all of major chemical and chemistry‐climate feedbacks. The module incorporates a new, highly efficient tracer advection scheme; linearization of stratospheric chemistry; and abridged tropospheric chemical mechanism with 28 reactive tracers. This new model, E3SM‐chem, can readily perform century‐long climate simulations of ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide based on emission scenarios as well as provide hourly budgets for the gas‐phase radicals that drive aerosol chemistry. We evaluate E3SM‐chem with an atmosphere‐only simulation as in the recent climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) finding results similar to the other CMIP6 models. For the present‐day, E3SM‐chem matches the standard measurement metrics for stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, surface air quality, other key reactive gases like carbon monoxide, and the methane lifetime. Overall, E3SM‐chem maintains the climate fidelity of the baseline model while adding at most 20% to the computational cost of the atmosphere model. Hence, interactive chemistry can be a default configuration for long climate simulations at resolutions of 1° or finer, which is crucial for producing self‐consistent chemistry‐climate feedbacks that alter the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Calibration of Groundwater Table Depth in ELM: Impact on Land Surface Hydrology and Land‐Atmosphere Fluxes

Accurate representation of groundwater table depth (GWTD) is crucial for simulating hydrological cycling in Earth system models (ESM). Nevertheless, there is a notable gap in the literature regarding the validation of GWTD simulations in ESMs and their subsequent impact on downstream hydrological components. This study explores the calibration of parameterization of global GWTD using machine learning within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). Despite achieving significant gains in simulating GWTD through calibration, offline ELM simulations unexpectedly show that these improvements do not translate to substantial enhancements in model performance for other key hydrological variables, including soil moisture (SM), runoff, groundwater contribution to runoff or base flow index (BFI), and evapotranspiration and its partitioning. The performance in SM and runoff was even degraded in some regions, while BFI was mostly overestimated. Although there is significant improvement in GWTD within the critical range of 1–5 m, where groundwater traditionally influences land surface energy fluxes, these improvements occurred mostly in humid areas where the impact of GWTD on surface processes is minimal. Although the impacts of model calibration are generally small in offline ELM simulations, coupled land-atmosphere simulations exhibit much stronger responses to GWTD calibration, highlighting the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in Earth system modeling. These findings underscore the need for integrated calibration strategies that simultaneously optimize multiple hydrological variables. However, if a single-variable approach is necessary, it is crucial to establish clear priorities for calibration, identifying the most critical variables that have the greatest impact on overall model performance.

Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗
DOE OSTI2026

Importance of Spatially Continuous Urban Surface Properties in Urban‐Resolving Earth System Modeling

Accurate representation of urban properties and processes at higher resolutions in global modeling systems is essential for advancing our ability to capture the complexities of urban systems and informing effective resilience strategies. However, the prescription of coarse global-scale urban properties in most state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) is limiting their potential for capturing urban signals as they advance toward kilometer-scale simulation capabilities. To bridge this gap in inadequate urban property representation and to advance urban-resolving Earth system modeling, this work integrates the newly-developed global 1 km-resolution facet-level urban surface property data set, U-Surf, into the land component of Community Earth System Model (CESM)—Community Terrestrial System Model (CTSM). The land-only CTSM simulations are validated against satellite measurements, ground-based urban weather stations, flux tower observations, and reanalysis data. Results demonstrate that the enhanced urban properties allow improved simulations of urban meteorology and surface energy fluxes compared to the default coarse-resolution categorical urban canopy parameters. Spatial scaling analysis reveals regime-dependent information loss during resolution aggregation, as well as substantial scale-dependent variations in urban surface energy flux representation. Furthermore, these findings have critical implications for coupled Earth system modeling when including the effect of land-atmosphere interaction. This work establishes a foundation for future urban-resolving kilometer-scale ESM development, which will enable systematic intra- and inter-city comparisons that inform urban adaptation strategies across diverse global urban environments.

Cheng, Yifan [University of Illinois Urbana-Champa↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2025

United States multi-sector land use and land cover base maps to support human and Earth system models

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) require current and future projections of land use and landcover change (LULC) to simulate land-atmospheric interactions and global biogeochemical cycles. Among the most utilized land systems in ESMs are the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) products. Regional studies also use these products by extending coarse projections to finer resolutions via downscaling or by using multisector dynamic (MSD) models. One such MSD model is the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which has its own independent land module, but often relies on CLM or LUH2 as spatial inputs for its base years. However, this requires harmonization of thematically incongruent land systems at multiple spatial resolutions, leading to uncertainty and error propagation. To resolve these issues, we develop a thematically consistent LULC system for the conterminous United States adaptable to multiple MSD frameworks to support research at a regional level. Using empirically derived spatial products, we developed a series of base maps for multiple contemporary years of observation at a 30-m resolution that support flexibility and interchangeability amongst LUH2, CLM, and GCAM classification systems.

Oliver, Jay↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overlooked cooling effects of albedo in terrestrial ecosystems

Radiative forcing (RF) resulting from changes in surface albedo is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of global climate change but has not been adequately estimated, including by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, compared with other warming agents. Here, we first present the physical foundation for modeling albedo-induced RF and the consequent global warming impact (GWI Δα ). We then highlight the shortcomings of available current databases and methodologies for calculating GWI Δα at multiple temporal scales. There is a clear lack of comprehensive in situ measurements of albedo due to sparse geographic coverage of ground-based stations, whereas estimates from satellites suffer from biases due to the limited frequency of image collection, and estimates from earth system models (ESMs) suffer from very coarse spatial resolution land cover maps and associated albedo values in pre-determined lookup tables. Field measurements of albedo show large differences by ecosystem type and large diurnal and seasonal changes. As indicated from our findings in southwest Michigan, GWI Δα is substantial, exceeding the RF Δα values of IPCC reports. Inclusion of GWI Δα to landowners and carbon credit markets for specific management practices are needed in future policies. We further identify four pressing research priorities: developing a comprehensive albedo database, pinpointing accurate reference sites within managed landscapes, refining algorithms for remote sensing of albedo by integrating geostationary and other orbital satellites, and integrating the GWI Δα component into future ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Diagnosing the representation of surface and layered soil moisture in Earth system models

Surface soil moisture (mrsos) and vertically integrated soil moisture (mrsol) over the top 10 cm should, by definition, be physically consistent in Earth System Models (ESMs). However, an evaluation of nine CMIP6 models reveals substantial inconsistencies: in some models, mrsos and integrated mrsol agree globally; in others, they align only in specific regions; and in a few, they diverge across all grid cells. These discrepancies arise from a combination of factors, including metadata errors, inconsistent variable definitions, or diagnostic sequencing within the model. We demonstrate how such issues can lead to significant biases, even when both variables are present and seemingly well-defined. As model complexity increases and multi-model comparisons become more common, assumptions about variable equivalence may lead to flawed conclusions. This study highlights the need for routine consistency checks, improved metadata standards, and community-wide practices that ensure reliability of derived variables across ESM outputs, particularly in preparation for CMIP7.

Earth system models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

California annual grass phenology and allometry influence ecosystem dynamics and fire regime in a vegetation demography model

Grass-dominated ecosystems cover wide areas of the land surface yet have received far less attention from the Earth System Model (ESM) community. This limits model projections of ecosystem dynamics in response to global change and coupled vegetation–climate dynamics. We used the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a dynamic vegetation demography model, to determine ecosystem sensitivity to alternate, observed grass allometries and biophysical traits, and evaluated model performance in capturing California C 3 annual grasslands structure and fire regimes. Grass allometry, leaf physiology, plant phenology, and plant mortality all drove the seasonal variation in matter and energy exchange and fire dynamics in California annual grasslands. Allometry influenced grassland structure and function mainly through canopy architecture-mediated space and light competition instead of through carbon partitioning strategy. Regional variation in grassland annual burned area was driven by variation in ecosystem productivity. Our study advances the modeling of grassy ecosystems in ESMs by establishing the importance of grass allometry and plant phenology and mortality in driving C 3 annual grassland seasonal dynamics and fire regime. The calibrated annual grass allometry and biophysical traits presented can be applied in future studies to project climate–vegetation–fire feedbacks in annual grass-dominant ecosystems under global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗