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What is (quantitative) system dynamics modeling? Defining characteristics and the opportunities they create

A clear definition of system dynamics modeling can provide shared understanding and clarify the impact of the field. We introduce a set of characteristics that define quantitative system dynamics, selected to capture core philosophy, describe theoretical and practical principles, and apply to historical work but be flexible enough to remain relevant as the field progresses. The defining characteristics are: (1) models are based on causal feedback structure, (2) accumulations and delays are foundational, (3) models are equation-based, (4) concept of time is continuous, and (5) analysis focuses on feedback dynamics. We discuss the implications of these principles and use them to identify research opportunities in which the system dynamics field can advance. These research opportunities include causality, disaggregation, data science and AI, and contributing to scientific advancement. Progress in these areas has the potential to improve both the science and practice of system dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Detailed biomass fast pyrolysis kinetics integrated to computational fluid dynamic (CFD) and discrete element modeling framework: Predicting product yields at the bench-scale

Fast pyrolysis is an intricate process due to the variability and anisotropy of lignocellulosic biomass and the complicated chemistry and physics during conversion in a bubbling fluidized bed reactor (BFBR). The complexity of biomass fast pyrolysis lends itself well to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and discrete element (DEM) analysis, which promises to reduce experimental time and its associated cost. This work investigated switchgrass fast pyrolysis simulated by computational fluid dynamics coupled with a discrete element method to track individual reacting biomass particles throughout a bench-scale BFBR reactor. We accounted for the fast pyrolysis chemistry through a comprehensive reaction scheme with secondary cracking reactions. We performed a three-step reduction for secondary cracking reactions to convert the full cracking scheme into a reduced scheme easily incorporated into our model. We assessed the impact of operational conditions on the steady-state yields of liquid bio-oil, non-condensable gases (NCG), at 550 °C over a range of fluidization numbers (2 – 6 Umf), reported as a ratio to the minimum fluidization velocity (Umf). At steady-state, the volatile bio-oil yield had a range of 49.3–50.4 wt%. Levoglucosan was the primary volatile component present with 21 wt% of the bio-oil while water was the second largest with 20 wt%. The reduction of the secondary reaction schemes did not appreciably affect the overall yields of switchgrass pyrolysis compared to the full secondary scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Discovery of the Long-Period, Eccentric Planet Kepler-88 d and System Characterization with Radial Velocities and Photodynamical Analysis

We present the discovery of Kepler-88 d (P{sub d} = 1403±14 days, Msini{sub d}=965±44 M{sub ⊕}=3.04±0.13 M{sub J}, e{sub d}=0.41±0.03) based on six years of radial velocity (RV) follow-up from the W. M. Keck Observatory High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer spectrograph. Kepler-88 has two previously identified planets. Kepler-88 b (KOI-142.01) transits in the NASA Kepler photometry and has very large transit timing variations (TTVs). Nesvorný et al. performed a dynamical analysis of the TTVs to uniquely identify the orbital period and mass of the perturbing planet (Kepler-88 c), which was later was confirmed with RVs from the Observatoire de Haute-Provence (OHP). To fully explore the architecture of this system, we performed photodynamical modeling on the Kepler photometry combined with the RVs from Keck and OHP and stellar parameters from spectroscopy and Gaia. Planet d is not detectable in the photometry, and long-baseline RVs are needed to ascertain its presence. A photodynamical model simultaneously optimized to fit the RVs and Kepler photometry yields the most precise planet masses and orbital properties yet for b and c: P{sub b}=10.91647±0.00014 days, M{sub b}=9.5±1.2 M{sub ⊕}, P{sub c}=22.2649±0.0007 days, and M{sub c}=214.0±5.3 M{sub ⊕}. The photodynamical solution also finds that planets b and c have low eccentricites and low mutual inclination, are apsidally anti-aligned, and have conjunctions on the same hemisphere of the star. Continued RV follow-up of systems with small planets will improve our understanding of the link between inner planetary system architectures and giant planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Disruption event characterization and forecasting in tokamaks

Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks, such as ITER. Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) research fully automates analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or complete avoidance of the disruption. Disruption event chains related to local rotating or global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and vertical instability are examined with warnings issued for many off-normal physics events, including density limits, plasma dynamics, confinement transitions, and profile variations. Along with Greenwald density limit evaluation, a local radiative island power balance theory is evaluated and compared to the observation of island growth. Automated decomposition and analysis of rotating tearing modes produce physical event chains leading to disruptions. A total MHD state warning model comprised of 15 separate criteria produces a disruption forecast about 180 ms before a standard locked mode detector warning. Single DECAF event analyses have begun on KSTAR, MAST, and NSTX/-U databases with thousands of shot seconds of device operation using from 0.5 to 1 × 10 6 tested sample times per device. An initial multi-device database comparison illustrates a highly important result that plasma disruptivity does not need to increase as βN increases. Global MHD instabilities, such as resistive wall modes (RWMs), can give the briefest time period of warning before disruption compared to other physics events. In an NSTX database with unstable RWMs, the mode onset, loss of boundary and current control, and disruption event warnings are found in all cases and vertical displacement events are found in 91% of cases. An initial time-dependent reduced physics model of kinetic RWM stabilization created to forecast the disruption chain predicts instability 84% of the time for experimentally unstable cases with a relatively low false positive rate. Instances of the disruption event chain analysis illustrate dynamics including H–L back transitions for rotating MHD and global RWM triggering events. Furthermore, disruption warnings are issued with sufficient time before the disruption (on transport timescales) to potentially allow active profile control for disruption avoidance, active mode control, or mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Transient Traceability Analysis of Land Carbon Storage Dynamics: Procedures and Its Application to Two Forest Ecosystems

Abstract Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage ( X ) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity ( X c ) and C storage potential ( X p ). X c is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and X p represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. X c is codetermined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (τ N ), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. X p is the product of redistribution matrix (τ ch ) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that different mechanisms lead to a similar trajectory between the two ecosystems. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Breaking Computational Barriers: Real-time Analysis and Optimization with Large-scale Nonlinear Models via Model Reduction

Model reduction for dynamical systems is a promising approach for reducing the computational cost of large-scale physics-based simulations to enable high-fidelity models to be used in many- query (e.g., Bayesian inference) and near-real-time (e.g., fast-turnaround simulation) contexts. While model reduction works well for specialized problems such as linear time-invariant systems, it is much more difficult to obtain accurate, stable, and efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) for systems with general nonlinearities. This report describes several advances that enable nonlinear reduced-order models (ROMs) to be deployed in a variety of time-critical settings. First, we present an error bound for the Gauss-Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) nonlinear model reduction technique. This bound allows the state-space error for the GNAT method to be quantified when applied with the backward Euler time-integration scheme. Second, we present a methodology for preserving classical Lagrangian structure in nonlinear model reduction. This technique guarantees that important properties--such as energy conservation and symplectic time-evolution maps--are preserved when performing model reduction for models described by a Lagrangian formalism (e.g., molecular dynamics, structural dynamics). Third, we present a novel technique for decreasing the temporal complexity --defined as the number of Newton-like iterations performed over the course of the simulation--by exploiting time-domain data. Fourth, we describe a novel method for refining projection-based reduced-order models a posteriori using a goal-oriented framework similar to mesh-adaptive h -refinement in finite elements. The technique allows the ROM to generate arbitrarily accurate solutions, thereby providing the ROM with a 'failsafe' mechanism in the event of insufficient training data. Finally, we present the reduced-order model error surrogate (ROMES) method for statistically quantifying reduced- order-model errors. This enables ROMs to be rigorously incorporated in uncertainty-quantification settings, as the error model can be treated as a source of epistemic uncertainty. This work was completed as part of a Truman Fellowship appointment. We note that much additional work was performed as part of the Fellowship. One salient project is the development of the Trilinos-based model-reduction software module Razor , which is currently bundled with the Albany PDE code and currently allows nonlinear reduced-order models to be constructed for any application supported in Albany. Other important projects include the following: 1. ROMES-equipped ROMs for Bayesian inference: K. Carlberg, M. Drohmann, F. Lu (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), M. Morzfeld (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). 2. ROM-enabled Krylov-subspace recycling: K. Carlberg, V. Forstall (University of Maryland), P. Tsuji, R. Tuminaro. 3. A pseudo balanced POD method using only dual snapshots: K. Carlberg, M. Sarovar. 4. An analysis of discrete v. continuous optimality in nonlinear model reduction: K. Carlberg, M. Barone, H. Antil (George Mason University). Journal articles for these projects are in progress at the time of this writing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Interaction between jets during laser-induced forward transfer

Simultaneous two-beam laser-induced forward transfer (LIFT) was carried out for various inter-beam separations, analyzing both the resulting printing outcomes and the corresponding liquid transfer dynamics. In a first experiment, droplets of an aqueous solution were printed onto a substrate at different inter-beam distances, which proved that a significant departure from the single-beam LIFT dynamics takes places at specific separations. In the second experiment, time-resolved imaging analysis revealed the existence of significant jet-jet interactions at those separations; such interactions proceed through a dynamics that results in remarkable jet deflection for which a possible onset mechanism is proposed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Dynamic mode decomposition for gyrokinetic eigenmode analysis

Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a post-processing approach to decompose a complex time series into a set of modes via spectral analysis. DMD provides a new and powerful method to recover gyrokinetic drift-wave eigenfrequencies and eigenfunctions based only on the solution of the gyrokinetic-Maxwell initial value problem with almost no added cost to the initial value solver. In the present paper, DMD is applied to the CGYRO gyrokinetic code using a newly-developed CGYRO-DMD post-processor. CGYRO-DMD is numerically efficient, even on a single CPU. It does not set any restrictions on the plasma shape, beta (ratio of the plasma pressure to the magnetic field pressure), collisionality or number of species, and allows one to resolve numerous eigenmodes, even of comparable growth rates. In addition, DMD is not limited to unstable modes, but rather can capture stable and unstable branches simultaneously. In this work, we illustrate the accuracy of DMD through gyrokinetic analysis of mode transition for electromagnetic drift wave instabilities.

drift-wave eigenmodes↗

Substantiation of the Possibility of Predicting Behavior of Solids under Extreme Conditions at Various High-Intensity Impacts

The paper is devoted to the data analysis on the amplitude-time regularities of the dynamic failure process of solids under various types of high-intensity impact in the ranges of nonequilibrium states from 3 × 10{sup −10} to 10{sup −5} s and establishing general regularities of behavior of unstudied materials under extreme conditions. We have analyzed the process of dynamic destruction of solids of different nature using the method of magnetic-pulse loading in the microsecond range of nonequilibrium states, as well as the dynamic failure process for a number of metals in the mode of pulsed volume heating under the action of pulsed relativistic electron beams in the nanosecond and subnanosecond range of nonequilibrium states. It has been shown that, upon using different methods of pulsed loading in the dynamic longevity range, the failure time as a function of amplitude of applied load has an exponential form for various solid materials. This indicates the scaling nature of the destruction process. The foregoing determines the possibility of predicting the behavior of unstudied solid bodies in the dynamic range of nonequilibrium states.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Enhanced Shuffling and Fuel Management Capability in PHISICS code

PHISICS (Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for the INL Code System) code is a reactor physics package, under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since few years ago. This package is aimed to provide a modern analysis and design tool for reactor physics investigation. It has been designed with the idea to maximize accuracy for a given availability of computational resources and to give state of the art tools and advanced solutions to the nuclear engineer. This is obtained through the implementation of several different solution algorithms and meshing approaches among which the user will be able to choose, in order to balance his computational resources and accuracy needs. PHISICS has been coded following an object-oriented mindset, evolving in a complete modular design; this determines remarkable simplifications in the development of modules by different teams and future maintenance. The different modules currently available in the PHISICS package are a nodal and semi-structured transport core solver (INSTANT), a depletion and burn-up module (MRTAU), a time-dependent solver (Time Integrator), a cross section interpolation and manipulation framework (MIXER), a criticality search module (Criticality) and a fuel management and shuffling component (Shuffle), which is the subject of this paper, having been recently redesigned and improved. PHISICS is fully parallelized to take advantage of multi-core workstations and High Performance Computing systems (4 to 500 cores). In addition, the package is coupled with the system safety analysis code RELAP5-3D. Using the coupling between PHISICS and RELAP5-3D is possible to drive a accurate dynamic analysis switching between a steady state and time-dependent calculations. The main purpose of this paper is to present the redesigned module Shuffle, within the PHISICS tool-kit. All the functionality limitations of the old design have been faced and resolved. The functionality of the module has been fully tested and represented a key development in order to face a challenging problems, such as the revision of the requirements in 10 CFR 50.46C rules, focused on the ECCS rule in LOCA scenarios. The renovated Shuffle module is now completed and represents a key feature of the PHISICS for fuel cycle studies and optimization. Currently it is possible to perform multi-cycle full core analysis including accounting for the thermal-hydraulic feedback by the coupling with RELAP-5. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Engineering micromotion in Floquet prethermalization via space-time symmetries

We present a systematic framework for Floquet prethermalization under strong resonant driving, emphasizing the pivotal role of dynamical space-time symmetries. Our approach demonstrates how dynamical space-time symmetries map onto the projective static symmetry group of the prethermal Hamiltonian governing the prethermal regime. We introduce techniques for detecting dynamical symmetries through the time evolution of local observables, facilitating a detailed analysis of micromotion within each period and surpassing the limitations of conventional stroboscopic Floquet prethermal dynamics. To implement this framework, we present a prethermal protocol that preserves order-2 dynamical symmetry in a spin-ladder model, confirming the predicted relationships between the expectation values of local observables at distinct temporal points in the Floquet cycle, linked by this symmetry.

floquet systems↗

CSPlib

This computational singular perturbation library (CSPlib) software is useful for analysis of chemical kinetic systems. The code is used to analyze and describe the dynamical landscape underlying the time evolution of a chemical system. Given a database of state vectors, it allows the analysis of the source term and Jacobian matrix of the chemical system, the identification and decoupling of fast and slow processes, and the analysis of cause-and-effect relationships in the coupled system dynamics. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2021-2391 O

Najm, HabibN.↗

Training data selection for event classification in a highly variable environment

A problem of interest for nuclear nonproliferation is monitoring activities at nuclear facilities, where proliferation events may only take place a few times and often under variable conditions. Machine learning has revolutionized data analytics by enabling the use of measurable signatures to generate predictive models of facility operations. However, traditional methods for training these models require large, reliable data sets with labeled observations, a challenge for nonproliferation. Highly variable conditions further complicate this as events from training data may have occurred in conditions quite different from the event of interest. Our hypothesis is that when events occur in a highly variable environment, careful training data selection for each test event could outperform the standard approach of using all available training data. We developed a method to optimize training data selection for the given test event and applied it to predicting the power level of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this study, the reactor startup exhibits variability between occurrences due to natural variability in environmental conditions and operational procedures. Using a combination of analysis techniques, a similitude assessment was performed on data collected from HFIR to isolate clusters that were optimal for training a predictive model. Concepts such as dynamic time warping and Jaccard similarity were used in conjunction with clustering analysis. In order to validate this approach, the model was trained on every combination of unique training events and the predictive performance was compared to the performance using a subset of the training data selected by isolated clusters found through the similitude assessment.

Iyer, A↗

Semantics-enabled Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Earth Observation Data: An application to Flood Monitoring

Extreme events such as urban floods are dynamic in nature, i.e. they evolve with time. The spatiotemporal analysis of such disastrous events is important for understanding the resiliency of an urban system during these events. Remote Sensing (RS) data is one of the crucial earth observation (EO) data sources that can facilitate such spatiotemporal analysis due to its wide spatial coverage and high temporal availability. In this paper, we propose a discrete mereotopology (DM) based approach to enable representation and querying of spatiotemporal information from a series of multitemporal RS images that are acquired during a flood disaster event. We represent this spatiotemporal information using a semantic model called Dynamic Flood Ontology (DFO). To establish the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed approach, spatiotemporal queries relevant during an urban flood scenario such as, show me road segments that were partially flooded during the time interval t1 have been demonstrated with promising results.

Kurte, Kuldeep↗

Enabling topography-resolving structural dynamic contact simulation

Damping of structures and systems is often dominated by frictional dissipation in connections, the prediction of which remains a longstanding scientific challenge. Previous studies have shown that the actual topography of contact interfaces may have a strong effect, especially in the partial slip/liftoff regime. We recently proposed a multi-scale method, which couples finite element and boundary element modeling. The primary benefit of this approach is that it permits to analyze the effect of the actual contact topography on the dynamics of jointed structures. While this multi-scale modeling method was initially developed for quasi-static analysis, we demonstrate herein how it can be used for time step integration and Harmonic Balance analysis. We cross-verify those fully dynamic analysis methods against each other and quasi-static results, for the S4 Beam benchmark. We compare the multi-scale method against state-of-the-art full-FE analysis, in terms of numerical damping and computational performance. Some discrepancy is found to be of physical origin. Depending on the load history, it is shown that the system settles to a slightly different equilibrium. Finally, transient multi-scale simulations enable the prediction of this interesting phenomenon, for the first time, for a structure with bolted joints.

Frictional-unilateral contact↗

Analysis of Time Dependent Data and PRA

In the past decades, several numerical simulation codes have been employed to simulate accident dynamics (e.g., RELAP5-3D, MELCOR, MAAP). In order to evaluate the impact of uncertainties into accident dynamics, several stochastic methodologies have been coupled with these codes. These stochastic methods range from classical Monte-Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling to stochastic polynomial methods. Similar approaches have been introduced into the risk and safety community where stochastic methods (such as RAVEN, ADAPT, MCDET, ADS) have been coupled with safety analysis codes in order to evaluate the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events. These approaches are usually called Dynamic PRA or simulation-based PRA methods. These uncertainties and safety methods usually generate a large number of simulation runs (database storage may be on the order of gigabytes or higher). The scope of this paper is to present a broad overview of methods and algorithms that can be used to analyze and extract information from large data sets containing time dependent data. In this context, 'extracting information' means constructing input-output correlations, finding commonalities, and identifying outliers. Some of the algorithms presented here have been developed or are under development within the RAVEN statistical framework. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analog Computing for Science

Conventional digital computing faces fundamental physical limits: large scale computing systems already con sume tens of Megawatts of power, Dennard scaling has ended, and data movement costs dominate application performance. Next generation experimental facilities generate data at rates that overwhelm conventional pro cessing and demand real-time analysis at the source. Analog computing, which exploits the continuous dynamics of physical systems to perform computation, promises a transformative path toward orders-of-magnitude gains in energy efficiency and time-to-solution for scientific workloads.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonadiabatic dynamics of photoexcited thiopyridone isomers: An interplay between El-Sayed’s conditions and energy gap law

We investigated the non-adiabatic dynamics of photoexcited thiopyridone systems across their ortho-, meta-, and para-isomeric forms. The relaxation pathways of the three isomers in both gas phase and solvent environments are mapped using surface hopping dynamics based on time-dependent density functional theory. Our analysis highlights the influence of isomeric structures on photophysical behavior, offering insights into design principles to control photochemical phenomena. The simulations suggest a systematic reduction in the rate of intersystem crossing (ISC) from ortho- to meta- to para-isomer. Comparisons with multiconfigurational wave function methods in the gas phase further demonstrate how electronic structure influences the predicted dynamical pathways. The simulated dynamics demonstrates that the spin–orbit coupling strength alone does not determine the rate of ISC, as both state energetics and underlying electronic and structural features play decisive roles. These aspects explain the much slower ISC in the para-isomer, as well as the non-negligible role of the El-Sayed forbidden pathway in the computed ISC dynamics.

Complete-active space self-consistent field↗