Results for “Dynamic Risk Assessment” — Page 8

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: ﬁrst, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission proﬁle events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to eﬃciently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: ﬁrst, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission proﬁle events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to eﬃciently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y. Zhu↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

Shah, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitative Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

The theory of System Health Management (SHM) and of its operational subset Fault Management (FM) states that FM is implemented as a "meta" control loop, known as an FM Control Loop (FMCL). The FMCL detects that all or part of a system is now failed, or in the future will fail (that is, cannot be controlled within acceptable limits to achieve its objectives), and takes a control action (a response) to return the system to a controllable state. In terms of control theory, the effectiveness of each FMCL is estimated based on its ability to correctly estimate the system state, and on the speed of its response to the current or impending failure effects. This paper describes how this theory has been successfully applied on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of proposed abort triggers so as to select the most effective suite to protect the astronauts from catastrophic failure of the SLS. The premise behind this process is to be able to quantitatively provide the value versus risk trade‐off for any given abort trigger, allowing decision makers to make more informed decisions. All current and planned crewed launch vehicles have some form of vehicle health management system integrated with an emergency launch abort system to ensure crew safety. While the design can vary, the underlying principle is the same: detect imminent catastrophic vehicle failure, initiate launch abort, and extract the crew to safety. Abort triggers are the detection mechanisms that identify that a catastrophic launch vehicle failure is occurring or is imminent and cause the initiation of a notification to the crew vehicle that the escape system must be activated. While ensuring that the abort triggers provide this function, designers must also ensure that the abort triggers do not signal that a catastrophic failure is imminent when in fact the launch vehicle can successfully achieve orbit. That is, the abort triggers must have low false negative rates to be sure that real crew‐threatening failures are detected, and also low false positive rates to ensure that the crew does not abort from non‐crew‐threatening launch vehicle behaviors. The analysis process described in this paper is a compilation of over six years of lessons learned and refinements from experiences developing abort triggers for NASA's Constellation Program (Ares I Project) and the SLS Program, as well as the simultaneous development of SHM/FM theory. The paper will describe the abort analysis concepts and process, developed in conjunction with SLS Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) to define a common set of mission phase, failure scenario, and Loss of Mission Environment (LOME) combinations upon which the SLS Loss of Mission (LOM) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models are built. This abort analysis also requires strong coordination with the Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and SLS Structures and Environments (STE) to formulate a series of abortability tables that encapsulate explosion dynamics over the ascent mission phase. The design and assessment of abort conditions and triggers to estimate their Loss of Crew (LOC) Benefits also requires in‐depth integration with other groups, including Avionics, Guidance, Navigation and Control(GN&C), the Crew Office, Mission Operations, and Ground Systems. The outputs of this analysis are a critical input to SLS S&MA's LOC PRA models. The process described here may well be the first full quantitative application of SHM/FM theory to the selection of a sensor suite for any aerospace system.

Lo, Yunnhon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sustaining NASA-Invented Thermal Protection System Materials for Future Missions

TPS is needed for NASA and many emerging commercial space missions and is dependent on an industrial base for future availability. Supply chains are dynamic and global. Change to constituent availability, after the fact, can impact missions. In addition to external vendor capability, NASA needs to maintain the in-house expertise and use SMEs to engage industry to assess the risk of atrophy on a constant basis and propose risk mitigation options to the Leadership as needed.

Matt Gasch↗

NASA NTRS2023

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool [“IMPACT” sur la Conception du Système Médical avec un Outil d'Analyse des Risques]

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

NASA NTRS2019

Cloud Computing Methods for Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit Trajectory Design

Complicated mission design problems require innovative computational solutions. As spacecraft depart from a proposed Gateway in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO), recontact analysis is required to avoid risk of collision and ensure safe operations. Escape dynamics from NRHOs are governed by multiple gravitational bodies, yielding a trajectory design space that is exhaustively large. This paper summarizes the recontact analysis for departure from the NRHO and describes how the Deep Space Trajectory Explorer (DSTE) trajectory design software incorporates high performance cloud computing to compute and visualize the orbit design space. Recent focus on exploration missions to cislunar space has kindled accelerated interest in multibody orbit solutions. Trajectory analysis in the presence of multiple gravity fields is complex, and innovative computational tools are needed to simplify complicated design spaces, to generate large quantities of data quickly, and to visualize the output for user accessibility. The Gateway mission is a prime example. The Gateway1 is proposed as a human outpost in deep space. The current baseline orbit for the Gateway is a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) near the Moon.2 The NRHO exists in a regime that experiences the gravitational effects of the Earth and the Moon simultaneously, complicating orbit analysis. The mission design process benefits greatly from updated computational tools for multibody missions like the Gateway. As an example, consider the problem of assessing the risk of collision in an NRHO. As a staging location to missions to the lunar surface and beyond the Earth-Moon system, the Gateway will experience spacecraft and other objects regularly arriving and departing. Departing objects potentially include spent logistics modules, visiting crew vehicles, debris objects, wastewater particles, and cubesats. Each departure is governed by the dynamics of the Gateway orbit and the surrounding dynamical environment. Over time, any unmaintained object in such an orbit eventually departs due to the small instabilities associated with the NRHOs. A separation maneuver speeds the departure from the NRHO, but the effects of the maneuver on the spacecraft behavior depend on the location, magnitude, and direction of the burn. Escape dynamics from the NRHO with regard to these maneuver options open up an enormous potential trajectory design space where subtle changes in input can produce dramatically large changes in the results. Any departing object must avoid recontacting the Gateway as it leaves the lunar vicinity, and a recontact analysis thus involves a significant number of computations and extensive output data. To explore the dynamics of this extensive design space, the Deep Space Trajectory Explorer3 (DSTE) trajectory design software incorporates new High Performance Computing (HPC) services and novel interactive visualizations. This paper details the HPC and cloud infrastructure techniques that are implemented in the DSTE, applying the new capabilities to analysis of recontact risk with the Gateway in NRHO. NEAR RECTILINEAR HALO ORBITS The Gateway is planned to fly in a lunar NRHO as its baseline orbit. The NRHO families of orbits are subsets of the larger halo families, which originate from planar orbits near the L1 and L2 libration points; the Earth-Moon L2 halo family appears in Figure 1. Each halo orbit is perfectly periodic in the Circular Restricted 3-Body Problem (CR3BP) and becomes a quasi-periodic orbit in a higher fidelity ephemeris force model. The NRHOs are defined as those members of the halo family with bounded stability properties;2 they pass near the Moon at perilune and are nearly polar. Families exist with apolunes located both above the lunar north pole and above the lunar south pole; the Gateway is planned to reside in a southern L2 NRHO in a 9:2 resonance with the lunar synodic period. The 9:2 NRHO is characterized by a period of about 6.5 days, a perilune radius of about 3,500 km, and an apolune radius of about 71,000 km; it is strongly affected by the gravity of both the Earth and the Moon simultaneously. This NRHO offers extended communications with assets on the south pole of the Moon,4 as well as low-cost orbit maintenance and attitude control,5 favorable eclipse avoidance properties,6 and inexpensive transfers from Earth and to other destinations.5,7 The NRHO portion of the southern L2 halo family is highlighted in black in Figure 1, and the 9:2 NRHO appears in blue.

Phillips, Sean M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Lunar Transient Accelerations White Paper

Recently, the United States announced a plan to return astronauts to the moon by 2024 [8]. Lunar landing (and subsequent Mars landing) architecture was not considered when the current NASA standards and vehicle design requirements for crew injury risk were developed. Therefore a gap exists in protecting the crew in planetary landing scenarios. One of the interesting aspects of this design reference mission (DRM)is the consideration of having the crew stand during dynamic phases of flight. Although this approach was contemplated for the Apollo Lunar Module, current NASA standards do not address design solutions that allow the crew to stand. Currently, NASA uses several tools and associated limits to mitigate crew injury because of dynamic loads. Some of these tools are the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criterion (BDRC) model and Hybrid III Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) [10]; and these have several limitations for assessing spaceflight loading environments, as well as specific underlying assumptions that may not be applicable in planetary landing vehicles. The BDRC is a simple lumped mass parameter model developed by the U.S. military, and has been used primarily to evaluate injury risk associated with aircraft ejection systems. The model evaluates seat accelerations in each axis to determine injury risk. Because the model treats the human-seat-restraint system as a single system, it is contingent on a restraint system and seat with similar characteristics of the original test data underlying the model. In particular, the model requires a rigid seat with a minimum natural frequency of 15Hz, minimal seat pan padding, side supports, and multipoint harness. The BDRC model uses undamped natural frequency and damping coefficients based on these requirements and any deviations may render the model injury predictions void. In lunar landing, one expects that a minimal or even no seat with minimal restraints will be employed. In this case, the original model parameters are likely to not be applicable. For capsule-based spacecraft returning crew to Earth, the Hybrid III ATD in various sizes also is used to supplement the BDRC. This analytical tool was added to address limitations in the BDRC related to spacecraft landings while wearing a pressure garment and helmet. Although the Hybrid III ATD has additional measurement capability; head, neck,and lumbar spine responses were the only metrics included because of the limitations imposed by the model.Lunar landing acceleration limits must assume the crew is standing during landing, an orientation for which we have limited data.Although the Apollo missions did employ a standing orientation for the crew, much of the data is lost. Therefore data from othersources havebeen examined to inform lunar landing acceleration limits.

Jeffrey T Somers↗

NASA NTRS2017

Real-Time Risk Assessment Framework for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM)

The new Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Small Unmanned Aircraft rule (Part 107) marks the first national regulations for commercial operation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) under 55 pounds within the National Airspace System (NAS). Although sUAS flights may not be performed beyond visual line-of-sight or over non- participant structures and people, safety of sUAS operations must still be maintained and tracked at all times. Moreover, future safety-critical operation of sUAS (e.g., for package delivery) are already being conceived and tested. NASA's Unmanned Aircraft System Trac Management (UTM) concept aims to facilitate the safe use of low-altitude airspace for sUAS operations. This paper introduces the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF) which was developed to provide real-time safety evaluation and tracking capability within the UTM concept. The URAF uses Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to propagate off -nominal condition probabilities based on real-time component failure indicators. This information is then used to assess the risk to people on the ground by calculating the potential impact area and the effects of the impact. The visual representation of the expected area of impact and the nominal risk level can assist operators and controllers with dynamic trajectory planning and execution. The URAF was applied to a case study to illustrate the concept.

Ancel, Ersin↗

NASA NTRS1979

Systems level feasibility study for the detection of extra-solar planets. Volume 1: Infrared interferometer (IRIS) known as the Stanford Concept

A sensor system for the direct detection of extrasolar planets from an Earth orbit is evaluated: a spinning, infrared interferometer (IRIS). It is shuttle deployed, free flying, requires no on-orbit assembly and no reservicing over a design life of five years. The sensor concept and the mission objectives are reviewed, and the performance characteristics of a baseline sensor for standard observation conditions are derived. A baseline sensor design is given and the enabling technology discussed. Cost and weight estimates are performed; and a schedule for an IRIS program including technology development and assessment of risk are given. Finally, the sensor is compared with the apodized visual telescope sensor (APOTS) proposed for the same mission. The major conclusions are: that with moderate to strong technology advances, particularly in the fields of long life cryogenics, dynamical control, mirror manufacturing, and optical alignment, the detection of a Jupiter like planet around a Sunlike star at a distance of 30 light years is feasible, with a 3 meter aperture and an observation time of 1 hour. By contrast, major and possibly unlikely breakthroughs in mirror technology are required for APOTS to match this performance.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of the Impacts of ACLS on the ISS Life Support System Using Dynamic Simulations in V-HAB

The Advanced Closed Loop System (ACLS) is currently under development by Airbus Defense and Space and is slated for launch to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2017. The addition of new hardware into an already complex system such as the ISS life support system (LSS) always poses operational risks. It is therefore important to understand the impacts ACLS will have on the existing systems to ensure smooth operations for the ISS. This analysis can be done by using dynamic computer simulations and one possible tool for such a simulation is the Virtual Habitat (V-HAB). Based on MATLAB, V-HAB has been under development at the Institute of Astronautics of the Technical University of Munich (TUM) since 2004 and in the past has been successfully used to simulate the ISS life support systems. The existing V-HAB ISS simulation model treated the interior volume of the space station as one large, ideally-stirred container. This model was improved to allow the calculation of the atmospheric composition inside individual modules of the ISS by splitting it into twelve distinct volumes. The virtual volumes are connected by a simulation of the inter-module ventilation flows. This allows for a combined simulation of the LSS hardware and the atmospheric composition aboard the ISS. A dynamic model of ACLS is added to the ISS Simulation and several different operating modes for both ACLS and the existing ISS life support systems are studied and the impacts of ACLS on the rest of the system are determined. The results suggest that the US, Russian and ACLS CO2 systems can operate at the same time without impeding each other. Furthermore, based on the results of this analysis, the US and ACLS Sabatier systems can be operated in parallel as well to a achieve a very low CO2 concentration in the cabin atmosphere.

Putz, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of the Impacts of ACLS on the ISS Life Support System using Dynamic Simulations in V-HAB

The Advanced Closed Loop System (ACLS) is currently under development by Airbus Defense and Space and is slated for launch to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2017. The addition of new hardware into an already complex system such as the ISS life support system (LSS) always poses operational risks. It is therefore important to understand the impacts ACLS will have on the existing systems to ensure smooth operations for the ISS. This analysis can be done by using dynamic computer simulations and one possible tool for such a simulation is Virtual Habitat (V-HAB). Based on Matlab (Registered Trademark) V-HAB has been under development at the Institute of Astronautics of the Technical University Munich (TUM) since 2006 and in the past has been successfully used to simulate the ISS life support systems. The existing V-HAB ISS simulation model treated the interior volume of the space station as one large ideally-stirred container. This model was improved to allow the calculation of the atmospheric composition inside the individual modules of the ISS by splitting it into ten distinct volumes. The virtual volumes are connected by a simulation of the inter-module ventilation flows. This allows for a combined simulation of the LSS hardware and the atmospheric composition aboard the ISS. A dynamic model of ACLS is added to the ISS simulation and different operating modes for both ACLS and the existing ISS life support systems are studied to determine the impacts of ACLS on the rest of the system. The results suggest that the US, Russian and ACLS CO2 systems can operate at the same time without impeding each other. Furthermore, based on the results of this analysis, the US and ACLS Sabatier systems can be operated in parallel as well to achieve the highest possible CO2 recycling together with a low CO2 concentration.

Puetz, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Reliable Earth Return System for Safe Recovery of Mars Samples

The objective of a Mars sample return mission is to bring selected Mars surface materials to Earth. Numerous approaches for the Earth-return segment have been analyzed including propulsive or aerocapture return to low-Earth orbit followed by Space Shuttle rendezvous and direct entry. Of these approaches, ballistic entry of a small capsule terminating in a ground landing has been shown to be the lowest risk strategy. Over the past two years, significant work has been performed towards development of a robust direct entry vehicle for Mars sample return. In June 1999, the NASA Planetary Protection Officer provided initial guidance to the former Mars Sample Return Project. The sample return phase of the mission was assigned a restricted Earth return planetary protection classification. The draft mission requirement states that the total mean probability of release of unsterilized Mars material into the Earth;s biosphere must be less than 1.0E-06 (1 in a million). This strict requirement drives the approach and design of the Earth return system. To meet this requirement, selection of the Earth return strategy and development of the Earth return system must be guided by risk, not performance, based decisions. An initial Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) was performed to address the direct entry Earth return system containment assurance reliability and to identify high-risk elements of this system. The results of this PRA identified risk elements that include thermal protection system performance during entry, spin-eject orientation and aerodynamic stability during entry, structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and tracking/recovery of this system. This initial probabilistic risk quantification demonstrates that, with the proper development program, a prototypical direct entry design can satisfy the containment assurance reliability requirement. Through the current Mars Sample Return Advanced Technology Development effort, an extensive design, analysis, and test program is presently proceeding with the aim of reducing the containment assurance risk of this system. This technology development effort, guided by a continuing PRA, focuses on key risk areas of a direct entry Earth return system including: the thermal protection system, impact dynamics, structural performance, aerodynamic stability, and ground recovery. This development program will culminate in a system validation flight test, 1-2 years prior to launch of the flight system. This flight test would include the launch, entry, and recovery of a full-scale Earth return system, as a scientific validation of the key risk elements to verify nominal design performance. The results of the initial PRA suggested several dominant failure sequences that can be validated in a flight test. These include: demonstrating the thermal protection system reliability and performance during entry, demonstrating the spin-eject orientation and aero-dynamic stability during entry, demonstrating the structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and demonstrating tracking and recovery of the Earth return system. This single test will directly address over 50% of the total containment assurance risk elements. This presentation will begin by presenting the relative risk of various Earth return strategies. The results of the initial probabilistic risk assessment will be presented followed by a discussion of the development accomplishments and plans for demonstration of a highly reliable direct entry Earth return system.

Braun, R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Ghrist, Richard W.↗

NASA NTRS2017

High-Fidelity Multi-Rotor Unmanned Aircraft System Simulation Development for Trajectory Prediction Under Off-Nominal Flight Dynamics

The NASA Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project is conducting research to enable civilian low-altitude airspace and UAS operations. A goal of this project is to develop probabilistic methods to quantify risk during failures and off nominal flight conditions. An important part of this effort is the reliable prediction of feasible trajectories during off-nominal events such as control failure, atmospheric upsets, or navigation anomalies that can cause large deviations from the intended flight path or extreme vehicle upsets beyond the normal flight envelope. Few examples of high-fidelity modeling and prediction of off-nominal behavior for small UAS (sUAS) vehicles exist, and modeling requirements for accurately predicting flight dynamics for out-of-envelope or failure conditions are essentially undefined. In addition, the broad range of sUAS aircraft configurations already being fielded presents a significant modeling challenge, as these vehicles are often very different from one another and are likely to possess dramatically different flight dynamics and resultant trajectories and may require different modeling approaches to capture off-nominal behavior. NASA has undertaken an extensive research effort to define sUAS flight dynamics modeling requirements and develop preliminary high fidelity six degree-of-freedom (6-DOF) simulations capable of more closely predicting off-nominal flight dynamics and trajectories. This research has included a literature review of existing sUAS modeling and simulation work as well as development of experimental testing methods to measure and model key components of propulsion, airframe and control characteristics. The ultimate objective of these efforts is to develop tools to support UTM risk analyses and for the real-time prediction of off-nominal trajectories for use in the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF). This paper focuses on modeling and simulation efforts for a generic quad-rotor configuration typical of many commercial vehicles in use today. An overview of relevant off-nominal multi-rotor behaviors will be presented to define modeling goals and to identify the prediction capability lacking in simplified models of multi-rotor performance. A description of recent NASA wind tunnel testing of multi-rotor propulsion and airframe components will be presented illustrating important experimental and data acquisition methods, and a description of preliminary propulsion and airframe models will be presented. Lastly, examples of predicted off-nominal flight dynamics and trajectories from the simulation will be presented.

Foster, John V.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An in-Time Aviation Safety Management System Concept of Operations and Modernization of the National Airspace System

The National Airspace System (NAS) is growing in complexity of aircraft, missions, and operations. In response, many organizations have published papers and concepts of operations (ConOps) for new and enhanced safety systems. The National Academies’ vision for an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is integral to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) modernization efforts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) System-Wide Safety (SWS) project is conducting safety research, exploring solutions, and defining the safety needs of future missions, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and autonomous aircraft operating in a more connected, flexible, and dynamic airspace. IASMS enables and provides a path for bringing FAA’s operational vision to fruition through increasingly automated safety systems that integrate services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs). These SFCs provide the necessary responsiveness to monitor, assess, and mitigate known hazards and emergent risks. This paper describes how safety in today’s air transportation system will need to evolve, identifies key points regarding in-time safety, and explores the criticality of IASMS in the future NAS.

IASMS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An In-time Aviation Safety Management System Concept of Operations and Modernization of the National Airspace System

The National Airspace System (NAS) is growing in complexity of aircraft, missions, and operations. In response, many organizations have published papers and concepts of operations (ConOps) for new and enhanced safety systems. The National Academies’ vision for an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is integral to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) modernization efforts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) System-Wide Safety (SWS) project is conducting safety research, exploring solutions, and defining the safety needs of future missions, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and autonomous aircraft operating in a more connected, flexible, and dynamic airspace. IASMS enables and provides a path for bringing FAA’s operational vision to fruition through increasingly automated safety systems that integrate services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs). These SFCs provide the necessary responsiveness to monitor, assess, and mitigate known hazards and emergent risks. This paper describes how safety in today’s air transportation system will need to evolve, identifies key points regarding in-time safety, and explores the criticality of IASMS in the future NAS.

Airspace↗